Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, raising questions about the impact on the U.S. stock market in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Market Resilience and Economic Indicators - The market showed unexpected resilience following the tariff announcement in April, with the S&P 500 rebounding 15% from its April low, and the Nasdaq 100 recovering its year-to-date losses [4] - The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in June, the lowest in 2023, providing a "safety net" for consumer spending, as historical data indicates that when unemployment is below 4%, the S&P consumer sector outperforms the market by 4% annually [5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June was reported at 3.3%, slightly down from 3.5% in April, but the core PCE remains at 2.8%, indicating that inflation concerns persist [6] Group 2: Legislative Factors Impacting Corporate Earnings - The Senate has a 60% chance of passing a tax reduction bill, which could lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 18%, potentially releasing $120 billion in cash flow based on last year's net profits [7] Group 3: Sector Allocation Strategies - Technology stocks are allocated 50% of the portfolio, with a focus on companies with actual AI computing capabilities, such as Nvidia and Microsoft, while avoiding speculative "AI concept stocks" [8] - Consumer stocks are allocated 30%, shifting focus from "essential" to "discretionary" spending, as evidenced by a 5.2% month-over-month growth in discretionary consumption in June [9] - Defense stocks are allocated 20%, capitalizing on government defense spending, particularly in satellite communication, which has shown historical outperformance following similar policy initiatives [10] Group 4: Risk Management Practices - A maximum position size of 15% per stock is established to mitigate risks, following a significant loss from a concentrated position in Apple during the tariff announcement [11] - Weekly "stress tests" are conducted to assess portfolio performance under extreme scenarios, leading to an increase in cash allocation from 5% to 10% [12] - Key policy dates are marked for monitoring, particularly regarding tariffs and tax votes, to stay informed on potential market-moving events [13]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry experienced a strong rebound on June 23, 2025, with the sector closing as the second highest in gains among all industries, only behind the computer sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The defense military ETF (512810) saw a daily increase of 1.5%, closing at 0.608 yuan, with a trading volume of 54.1 million yuan and a turnover rate of 8.73%, leading among six similar ETFs [1][2]. - The trading threshold for the defense military ETF was significantly reduced from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan due to a recent share split, enhancing trading accessibility [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Dynamics - A total of 73 out of 80 leading stocks covered by the defense military ETF rose in value, with notable performances from Changcheng Military Industry, Aerospace Development, and others [2][4]. - Recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. airstrikes in Iran and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, are expected to reignite a new arms race, positively impacting the defense sector [4][5]. - The 55th Paris Air Show highlighted advanced military aircraft, which are anticipated to bolster China's military trade on a global scale [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The defense military ETF (512810) passively tracks the CSI Military Index, covering various sectors such as military AI, commercial aerospace, and traditional military equipment [5]. - The ETF is currently a target for margin trading and is accessible for northbound capital, indicating strong investment interest [5].

长城军工(601606.SH)公告称，公司股票连续3个交易日收盘价格 涨幅偏离值累计超过20%，属于股票交 易异常波动。经自查，公司目前生产经营活动正常，日常经营情况未发生重大变化，不存在影响公司股 票交易异常波动的重大事项。同时，公司、公司控股股东及实际控制人等无正在筹划涉及长城军工的重 大 资产重组、收购等重大事项。公司提醒投资者注意投资风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 ...

4连板长城军工：控股股东及实际控制人等无正在筹划涉及长城军工的重大资产重组、收购等重大事项 智通财经6月23日电，长城军工(601606.SH)发布异动公告，经自查，公司目前生产经营活动正常，日常 经营情况未发生重大变化，不存在影响公司股票交易异常波动的重大事项。同时，公司、公司控股股东 及实际控制人等无正在筹划涉及长城军工的重大资产重组、收购等重大事项。长城军工市净率水平高于 国防军工同行业上市公司。公司股票短期内涨幅较大，公司特别提醒投资者，注意投资风险，理性决 策，审慎投资。 ...

6月23日，A股主要指数午后拉升转涨，沪指收涨0.65%报3381点，深证成指涨0.43%，创业板指涨0.39%。 全天成交1.13万亿元，较前一交易日增量552亿元，全市场超4400股上涨。 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3381.58 | +21.69 | +0.65% | | 000001 | NA | | | | | 创业板指 | | 2017.63 | +7.74 | 40.39% | | 399006 | mann | | | | | 深证成指 | | 10048.39 | +43.36 | +0.43% | | 399001 | min | | | | 盘面上，数字货币、跨境支付板块走高；伊朗议会批准在必要时关闭霍尔木兹海峡，港口航运板块爆发，油气股反复活跃；银行股、软件开发、 数据安全及华为昇腾等板块涨幅居前。另外，酿酒板块普跌，猪肉板块走弱。 具体来看： | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

6月23日涨停分析 今日共71股涨停，连板股总数17只，15股封板未遂，封板率为82%（不含ST股、退市股）。焦点股方面，油气板块山东墨龙7连板、准油股份7天6板，固态 电池概念股诺德股份5连板，军工股长城军工4连板。 | 股票名称 | 板数 | 涨跌幅 | 涨停时间 | 上涨逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 永安药业 | 8天4板 | 10.00% | 14:19 | 牛磺酸 | | 002365 | | | | | | 茂化实华 | 3天3板 | 10.06% | 09:30 | 石油化工 | | 000637 | | | | +光伏 | | 兴化股份 | 4天2板 | 9.92% | 09:49 | 甲醇 | | 002109 | | | | | | 渤海化学 | 首板 | 9.95% | 09:35 | 环氧丙烷 | | 600800 | | | | | | 中毅达 | 首板 | 10.02% | 09:42 | 双李戊四 | | 600610 | | | | 醇 | | 丹化科技 | 首板 | 10.09% | 10:15 | 煤化工 | | 600844 ...

A股收评：三大股指午后走强集体收涨 两市超4200只个股收红 金十数据6月23日讯，A股三大股指早盘低开高走，午后强势冲高，沪指一度涨近0.8%，截至收盘，沪 指涨0.65%，深证成指涨0.43%，创业板指涨0.39%；沪深两市全天成交额超1.1万亿，沪深两市超4200只 个股飘红。盘面上，大市多数板块飘红，能源金属板块全天强势，跨境支付板块午后拉升冲高，四方精 创20CM涨停，月内累涨超90%。航运、军工板块表现亮眼。白酒板块延续低迷态势全天水下震荡，迎 驾贡酒、山西汾酒等跌幅居前。 ...

美国对伊朗三处核设施发动袭击后，6月22日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，美国袭击伊朗核设施"令人发 指"，将会产生"持久后果"，同日，伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡。本轮伊以冲突爆发进入第11天， 局势持续升级，而在资本市场上，6月23日，A股军工股再度活跃，航运股集体走高，截至午盘沪指报 3365.07点，涨0.15%，深成指报9988.66点，跌0.16%，创业板指数报2003.26点，跌0.33%。 高盛集团表示，美国打击伊朗之后， 石油和天然气价格可能上涨，但基线情境预测取决于该地区供应 是否受到严重干扰。分析师在报告指出，如果通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量在一个月内下降一半，并 在接下来的11个月保持低10%的状态，布伦特油价将短暂飙升至每桶110美元。如果伊朗石油供应量减 少175万桶每日，布伦特将最高触及90美元。 6月22日，美国对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施发动袭击后，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委 员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委 员会手中。 战火延烧引市场担忧 预计油价将大幅上行 霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼和伊朗之间，连接了东部的阿曼湾和西部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector experienced a significant rise in the A-share market, with various stocks showing notable gains, indicating a potential recovery in coal prices due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [9][10]. Market Overview - As of June 23, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.15% and the Shenzhen Component down by 0.16% [2]. - The total market turnover was 683.87 billion CNY, slightly lower than the previous day, with 3,657 stocks rising and 1,577 falling [3]. Sector Performance - The coal, petrochemical, defense, and non-ferrous metal sectors led the gains, while consumer stocks, including liquor and gaming, faced declines [3][4]. - The coal sector specifically saw stocks like Baotailong, Shaanxi Black Cat, and China Coal Energy among the top gainers [9]. Shipping and Port Sector - The port and shipping sectors collectively surged, with stocks such as Ningbo Shipping and Ningbo Ocean reaching their daily limits [13]. - The global shipping market reacted to recent geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased shipping rates [15]. Defense Sector - The defense and military sector also saw gains, with stocks like Changcheng Military Industry and Aerospace Development hitting their limits [10]. - The Ministry of National Security emphasized the importance of technological security in national security, which may bolster investments in the defense sector [10]. Key Stock Movements - Notable stock performances included Huahong Semiconductor rising by 7.02% and SMIC increasing by 4.94% [7]. - In the coal sector, Baotailong rose by 4.78%, while Shaanxi Black Cat increased by 4.40% [9].

Market Overview - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.16% and 0.33% respectively. Over 3,600 stocks in the market increased, while more than 1,500 stocks declined [1][2]. Sector Performance - The oil and gas, shipping, port, semiconductor, and military industries showed the highest gains, while sectors such as stablecoins, solid-state batteries continued to gain traction. Conversely, computing power, liquor, pharmaceuticals, and IP economy stocks weakened [2]. Capital Flow - Major capital inflows were observed in sectors including electronics, electrical equipment, basic chemicals, computers, machinery, and transportation. In contrast, there were net outflows from telecommunications, food and beverage, biomedicine, public utilities, steel, and building materials [3]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable net inflows were recorded for stocks such as SMIC, Jingfang Technology, and Northern Huachuang, with inflows of 648 million, 638 million, and 628 million respectively. On the other hand, stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, Hengbao Co., and Cambrian Technologies faced net outflows of 444 million, 262 million, and 192 million respectively [4][5]. Institutional Insights - China Galaxy Securities anticipates a volatile upward trend in the A-share market for the second half of 2025, driven by a new round of supply-side reforms. The ongoing deepening of capital market reforms is expected to provide solid support for a stable foundation in the A-share market. The transformation of emerging industries and institutional innovation are seen as core drivers for market value reconstruction [7]. - Wang Zhangliang, a fund manager at Qianhai Rongyue Asset Management, noted that recent national policies have been unprecedented in their intensity. The acceleration of AI commercialization and the semiconductor industry's upward cycle present dual benefits. Focus is recommended on semiconductor equipment and materials, AI computing infrastructure, trusted computing industries, and humanoid robots [8].