1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is difficult to improve. Short - term tariff increases affect downstream demand, making it more difficult for prices to rebound. In the short term, silicon prices will continue to weaken [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - The spot price of industrial silicon was mainly weak and stable this week. The actual transaction price was pushed down due to more shipments by spot - futures traders. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 10100 - 10300 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10800 - 11200 yuan/ton. On Friday, the closing price of the main contract si2505 of industrial silicon futures was 9820, +0.20%, with the position decreasing by 12882 hands to 179,600 hands and the trading volume reaching 6.71 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - Factories were eager to sell at discounted prices. The lowest transaction price of 99 - silicon from northern manufacturers reached 9200 yuan/ton. The previous production - cut plan of large manufacturers in the eastern production area has been implemented. Currently, there are 21 operating submerged arc furnaces in the east and 45 in the west, and the west has no plan to increase production. Other silicon factories have no joint production - cut phenomenon. This production - cut plan lasts for more than 2 months, which may relieve inventory pressure in the long run. Recently, the tender price of downstream powder orders was lower than expected, and the profit of powder mills was meager [1]. Demand Side - The organic silicon DMC market held firm this week, with the mainstream transaction price at 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Some monomer plants adopted production - cut and production - control strategies, reducing the operating load of monomer equipment as planned. The decrease in supply supported the price, and the market sentiment and trading atmosphere improved. The price of polysilicon remained stable. Silicon material enterprises planned to add production lines to produce deliverable goods, and the registration of silicon material warehouse receipts was open, with only 10 successful registrations on Friday. The price of re -投料 was 37 - 39 yuan/kg, dense material 35 - 38 yuan/kg, cauliflower material 32 - 34 yuan/kg, and N - type material 41 - 43 yuan/kg. The price of aluminum alloy ingots was stable, but the market demand was weak, the trading atmosphere was light, and the procurement enthusiasm of downstream die - casting enterprises was low [1]. Inventory - On April 3, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 70034 hands, an increase of 243 hands this week, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained at a high level [1].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 农产品 | ★★★★ | 农产品：此次美国对全球加征对等关税是历史性的大事件;加征幅度超预期;各国大概率会不同 程度反制，不确定性极高。由于这一次是对全球加征关税，因此不能完全用 2018 年的思路 去看待。农产品方面,美国大豆、玉米和棉花出口占全球出口份额比较高，大豆 27%、玉米 33%、棉花 26%，美国出口下降预期已经推高巴西现货升水，对销区的成本上升的影响较大， 且大概率是持续性的影响。大豆方面，虽然榨利较高，但是下游仍有养殖利润，承接力度较 强，囤库意愿较高。风险:全球高关税带来的经济衰退预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 短线或继续大跌，长线关注超跌反弹机会 观点分享： 外盘油价较上周五累计暴跌近 14%，内盘跌停概率较大。短期市场极度恐慌，其中 Brent 或继续交易衰退考验 55 美元/桶，中长期关注企稳筑底后的多配机会。理由：第一， 短期看，市场交易主要大国、经济体之间关税互征引发的通缩，恐慌情绪 ...

Group 1 - The investment rating of the industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the current supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon has not reversed, and there is a lack of driving force for price increases. In the short term, industrial silicon will mainly operate weakly and stably [2] Group 3 Logic - The spot market quotation of industrial silicon was stable yesterday, but the actual transaction price may decline. The price of East China oxygen - mixed 553 silicon is 10100 - 10300 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 10800 - 11200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract si2505 of industrial silicon futures was 9760, down 0.20%, with the main contract reducing its position by 17,564 lots, the position being 192,500 lots, and the trading volume being 6.161 billion yuan [1] Supply - side - The production of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Shandong is currently stable, and the previously planned production cuts have not been implemented, resulting in the accumulation of enterprise inventories. The northern market has abundant supplies, and spot - futures traders are actively quoting prices. The market's inquiries about substitutes such as recycled silicon and 97 - silicon are increasing, but the transactions are average. The powder - list tender price has declined again, and the demand in the silicone industry is difficult to remain stable due to production cuts [1] Demand - side - The current polysilicon price is stable, and downstream buyers still purchase on demand, with no significant increase in the demand for silicon materials. The current price of re - feeding materials is 37 - 39 yuan/kg, the price of dense materials is 35 - 38 yuan/kg, the price of cauliflower materials is 32 - 34 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type materials is 41 - 43 yuan/kg. The silicone DMC quotation is generally stable, with the mainstream transaction price referring to 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The mainstream production devices have gradually started flexible production adjustments. However, the demand side is restricted by weak terminal consumption, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand and try to lower prices. The market trading activity depends on rigid demand. The price of aluminum alloy ingots is stable, the alloy ingot market still has weak demand, the market trading atmosphere remains light, and the procurement enthusiasm of downstream die - casting enterprises is not high [1] Inventory - On April 2, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 70,034 lots, an increase of 324 lots on that day, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained at a high level [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market price of industrial silicon is weakly stable, with downstream buyers mainly pressing for lower prices, and there is insufficient upward momentum in the short term [2]. - From the perspective of the futures market, trading volume has decreased. Be vigilant about trading enterprises repurchasing for hedging near the cost price [2]. - Supply is expected to decrease later, demand will be maintained as needed, and inventory will remain at a high level. Today, industrial silicon has seen a volume - shrinking decline [2]. - It is recommended to operate the industrial silicon main contract 2505 in the oscillation range of 9700 - 10100, with stop - loss prices at 9600 and 10200, and pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; the position of the main contract is 220162 lots, a decrease of 9139 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 38360 lots, a decrease of 657 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 69767 lots, a decrease of 24 lots; the price difference between the May - September contracts is - 75 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 10200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 11050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 14400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 770 yuan; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12250 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 289350 tons, a decrease of 16450 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 60.4 tons, an increase of 1.3 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52919.65 tons, a decrease of 12197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 4.06 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 21000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 16.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 5.01 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 17485.81 tons, a decrease of 632.98 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 61.73%, a decrease of 1.36%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 155.2 tons, an increase of 10.2 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Tongwei Co., Ltd. announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Yongxiang Co., Ltd., plans to introduce strategic investors to increase capital by no more than 10 billion yuan. After the capital increase, the total shareholding ratio of strategic investors will not exceed 27.03% [2]. - A 7.9 - magnitude earthquake occurred in Myanmar, mainly affecting Yunnan. As it is a major industrial silicon production area, but the current operating rate of industrial silicon is low, the impact is basically small. It depends on the subsequent impact on transportation facilities [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - range - bound; Medium - term - bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - short - term bonds narrow - range bound, long - term bonds poised for rebound; Medium - term - bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 79000 - 81000; Medium - term - range between 66000 - 90000 [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level operation in the range of 9700 - 9900; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 9600 - 11000 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 43000 - 44000; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 43000 - 47000 [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level oscillation in the range of 73500 - 74500; Medium - term - fluctuate around production cost in the range of 65000 - 85000 [12] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflow. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy expansion and high inflation in the US add uncertainties. The equity market will return to fundamentals, with short - term focus on positive performance expectations and medium - term continuation of domestic technology innovation theme [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Central bank's net capital withdrawal, policy focus on long - term bond yields, and weak economic fundamentals support long - term bond prices [2][3]. - **Copper**: Global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness, US tariff - induced demand front - loading, and reduced scrap copper exports boost copper prices, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand lead to low - level operation [8][9]. - **Polysilicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand result in low - level operation [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: High production capacity, high inventory, and low - level spot prices are negative for lithium carbonate prices [13]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures**: - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio, hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Increase long positions in T2506 and TL2506 on dips [2] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper**: - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish - biased trading approach; copper - using enterprises can buy for hedging on dips [4] - **Supply**: Codelco expects 2025 production to reach 137 - 140 million tons. Many companies have production changes in 2024 and plans for 2025 [5] - **Demand**: Q1 2025 domestic power grid data is strong, but some demand indicators show fluctuations [6][7] - **Inventory**: LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories have decreased [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2505 - C - 12000 and hold [8] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 16.04% year - on - year [8] - **Demand**: February 2025 polysilicon production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [9] - **Inventory**: As of March 21, 2025, social inventory is high [9] - **Polysilicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2505 - C - 47000 and hold [10] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [10] - **Demand**: February 2025 silicon wafer production decreased by 15.94% year - on - year [11] - **Inventory**: As of March 23, 2025, social inventory is high [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2505 - C - 90000 and hold [13] - **Supply**: February 2025 production capacity reached a 4 - year high, and production increased year - on - year [13] - **Inventory**: As of February 28, 2025, total inventory is at a high level [13]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to a combination of increased supply and reduced demand, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price fluctuated from 9945 CNY/ton to 9785 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 1.61% [1]. - The national average price is 10676 CNY/ton, down by 135 CNY/ton [1]. - Specific prices for different grades are as follows: 553 at 10002 CNY/ton, 441 at 10471 CNY/ton, and 421 at 10875 CNY/ton [1]. - Regional prices include Xinjiang at 10133 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10883 CNY/ton, Fujian at 15640 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 11000 CNY/ton [1]. - FOB prices remain stable [1]. Market Dynamics - The industrial silicon market is seeing weak transactions, with downstream purchases primarily driven by immediate needs [1]. - Supply remains stable with minimal changes in national production, except for major northern manufacturers resuming operations as planned [1]. - There is no significant willingness for other manufacturers to resume production, leading to an overall increase in supply [1]. - Demand is expected to decrease due to the implementation of production cuts by organic silicon monomer plants, which may further reduce demand for industrial silicon [1][2]. - The production of polysilicon remains stable, maintaining demand for industrial silicon, while aluminum alloy manufacturers are purchasing based on their needs [1]. Future Outlook - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is anticipated to decrease, indicating no significant improvement in the supply-demand fundamentals [2]. - Inventory pressure remains high, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a bottom range [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market remains stable with a slight decline in prices, reflecting a balance between supply and demand, but with upward pressure on prices due to increased supply and existing inventory levels [1] Price Trends - The main contract price fluctuated from 10,330 CNY/ton to 10,190 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.36% over the past week [1] - FOB prices decreased by 10-20 USD/ton [1] Market Performance - The industrial silicon market showed a lack of activity with pessimistic market sentiment, where downstream purchases were primarily based on immediate needs [1] - Buyers exhibited a willingness to negotiate prices down, while sellers were reluctant to lower prices, leading to a stalemate [1] Supply Dynamics - In the southern regions, production levels remain low with minimal changes in output [1] - Northern large manufacturers are resuming production as planned, alongside new capacity being introduced, resulting in an overall increase in production [1] Demand Factors - Organic silicon monomer plants continue to reduce or halt production, leading to stable demand for industrial silicon [1] - Polysilicon plants maintain stable operations, contributing to steady demand for industrial silicon [1] - Aluminum alloy plants have resumed operations post-holiday, slightly increasing demand for industrial silicon [1] Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience a scenario of increasing supply and demand, but the increase in supply is anticipated to outpace demand growth [1] - With over 300,000 tons of inventory, there is significant upward pressure on prices, although cost support exists at lower price levels, suggesting prices will likely remain stable at low levels [1]