1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.74% to $9,867/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.64% to 79,770 yuan/ton, and domestic spot imports remained slightly in the red. LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 122,075 tons, Comex inventory increased by 477 tons to 220,775 tons, and SMM's Monday statistics showed that the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 24,700 tons to 118,600 tons compared to last Thursday. Affected by the off - season, consumption was weak, but concerns about rising copper prices prompted some enterprises to replenish stocks in advance. With the weakening of the US dollar, the continuation of US - copper arbitrage, concerns about the implementation of a 50% tariff, and the impact of domestic anti - involution policies, the willingness to short copper prices weakened, and prices remained strong. Be cautious about shorting before late July and early August, and also pay attention to whether domestic anti - involution policies can be implemented [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina trended higher, with overnight AO2509 closing at 3,430 yuan/ton, up 3.56%, and positions increasing by 8,162 lots to 229,700 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended stronger, with overnight AL2509 closing at 20,860 yuan/ton, up 0.55%, and positions increasing by 1,595 lots to 318,500 lots. Aluminum alloy trended stronger, with the overnight main contract AD2511 closing at 20,250 yuan/ton, up 0.6%, and positions decreasing by 267 lots to 9,752 lots. SMM's alumina price rebounded to 3,199 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots widened to 100 yuan/ton. Due to some alumina plants being in the stage of maintenance, the replacement of southwest electrolytic aluminum production capacity, increased raw material stocking, and low warehouse receipt levels, spot circulation tightened, and alumina remained strong. Although the volume of delivery into warehouses may gradually peak, it is difficult to short under the anti - involution effect. New orders for electrolytic aluminum processing decreased, and off - season inventory accumulation started, which was in a game with low near - month warehouse receipts, providing short - term support. The registration of aluminum alloy warehouse receipts is approaching, and the tight supply of scrap aluminum is stronger than the weak off - season demand logic, but the one - sided rebound space is limited. Attention can be paid to the AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunity when the refined - scrap spread narrows [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel rose 1.74% to $15,510/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 1.52% to 123,540 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 300 tons to 207,876 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 551 tons to 22,111 tons. In June 2025, China's refined nickel exports were 10,142.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,831 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 208 tons; this month's net import of refined nickel was 6,867.321 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.74% and a year - on - year increase of 26.20%. The weekly nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was at a three - year low, and the tender price was 900 yuan/nickel point; nickel salt transactions were calm, and prices declined slightly. For stainless steel, cost support weakened, weekly inventory decreased, and supply in July decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand pattern may be gradually repaired. For primary nickel, domestic weekly inventory increased month - on - month, and market pressure became apparent. Short - term prices will still fluctuate, but volatility may increase, with market sentiment, overseas policies, and fundamentals in a game [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper increased from 78,610 yuan/ton on July 18 to 79,510 yuan/ton on July 21, with a rise of 900 yuan/ton. The premium of flat - copper increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 405 yuan/ton. The prices of oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods in Shanghai increased by 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The total inventory increased by 3,094 tons, and the social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by 130 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of lead concentrate in some regions increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the processing fee remained unchanged. The inventory increased by 7,186 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased by 220 yuan/ton and 190 yuan/ton respectively. The premium of aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China increased by 100 yuan/ton. The total inventory increased by 5,625 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 1,400 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi increased by 250 yuan/ton. The price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged. The nickel inventory increased by 230 tons, and the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 2.2%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 500 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 793 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.6%, and the SMM spot price increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The price of 60% and 40% tin concentrate decreased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The inventory increased by 51 tons, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards for the best metal industry futures research team of Futures Daily & Securities Times in the 15th and 16th sessions and the title of excellent non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [48].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The domestic macro situation is favorable for non - ferrous metals this week. The Q2 GDP data is good, and the anti - involution policy on commodities has led to expectations of supply - side reform, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector. For copper, the price has obvious support at the bottom, and attention should be paid to restocking opportunities around 7.6 - 7.7. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities. For zinc, short - term observation of the squeeze - out market is recommended, with long - term short - selling on rallies; long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets can be held, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities between months. For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends. For lead, it is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week. For tin, short - term observation is recommended due to the coexistence of raw material supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations. For industrial silicon, if the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate. For lithium carbonate, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [1][4][5][8][11][14][16] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 40, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 440, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 10062. The LME inventory decreased by 100, and the LME cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [1] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic macro situation is favorable, the scrap - refined spread has shrunk significantly, the refined copper rod start - up rate has rebounded faster than expected, and the spot import window has opened. The market is less sensitive to tariff pricing, overseas liquidity is loose with a possible interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the domestic downstream start - up rate is okay during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the possibility of a reversal in copper logistics [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 190, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 3725. The spot import profit decreased by 246.21, and the three - month import profit decreased by 72.82 [1] - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, with imports from January to May providing an increment. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, with flat supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse arbitrage opportunities in the context of low inventory [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 500, the social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 875, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 38425 [4] - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price has fluctuated upwards this week. The domestic TC in July has increased compared to June, and new production capacity in the southwest and central China has been realized. Domestic demand has weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe is weak. The domestic social inventory has increased, and the overseas LME inventory has decreased. There is an increased risk of short - squeezing in lead and zinc, and attention should be paid to the resonance between domestic and foreign markets [4] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1850, the spot import return decreased by 222.41, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 12 [5] - **Market Analysis**: The pure nickel production remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the premiums are stable. Both domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories have increased slightly. The tariff agreement between Indonesia and the US has no direct impact on pure nickel. The short - term fundamentals are average, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [5] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the price of waste stainless steel increased by 200 [5] - **Market Analysis**: Steel mills have partially reduced production passively since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro environment. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts have continued to decrease slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [5] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot premium increased by 10, the social inventory situation is not clear, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3475, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 500 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The lead price has slightly declined this week. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year, the waste battery supply is tight, and the refined lead production has increased from April to June but the concentrates are tightening. The battery finished product inventory is high, and the market's peak - season expectations have declined. It is expected that there will be inventory accumulation in July, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [8] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the spot import return decreased by 1181.50, the spot export return increased by 817.65, the LME C - 3M increased by 9, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 [11] - **Market Analysis**: The tin price has fluctuated widely this week. The domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Overseas, there are signals of复产 in Wa State, and the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) in June has exceeded expectations. The demand for solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory is at a low level but the inventory accumulation turning point is emerging. Short - term observation is recommended [11] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 565, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 515, the 553 East China basis decreased by 415, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 415, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 252 [14] - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of leading enterprises has decreased again due to power station issues, and there is no expected resumption date. Yunnan and Sichuan have slightly resumed production, with Yunnan's start - up rate remaining low. The monthly production in July and later is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate does not recover significantly in the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From July 15 to July 21, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1350, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1300, the basis of the main contract decreased by 30, the basis of the near - month contract increased by 1350, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 270 [16] - **Market Analysis**: The lithium carbonate futures price has continued to rise recently due to factors such as warehouse receipt games, supply - side news disturbances, and the repair of weak demand expectations. The basis has weakened slightly. After the simultaneous rise of futures and spot prices, downstream acceptance is low, and the actual transaction volume is small. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links is gradually accumulating. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate, and a downward turning point requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall non - ferrous metals, macro uncertainties remain high. Domestic policies boost the entire non - ferrous metals market in the short term, and prices are expected to run strongly in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and downstream off - season conditions [9][10] - For aluminum, the short - term domestic macro situation significantly boosts the alumina price. Although the overall supply of alumina is relatively loose, the spot price in the southwest region is supported. The alumina spot price is expected to gradually peak, and attention should be paid to subsequent arrivals [9] - For zinc, domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases still put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [12][13] - For tin, it shows a short - term oscillatory and strong trend, but the downward pressure increases in the medium term [15] Summary by Directory 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the closing prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel futures main contracts decreased, with weekly declines of 0.03%, 0.89%, 0.38%, and 0.73% respectively; the tin futures main contract price increased by 0.23%. Spot prices of copper, zinc, tin, and nickel decreased, with weekly declines of 0.04%, 0.34%, 0.28%, and 0.60% respectively; the aluminum spot price remained unchanged [7] 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - **Logic**: Overseas tariff policies and personnel change rumors make risk assets cautious, while domestic "anti - involution" policies drive up industrial metals. Domestically, short - term macro factors boost alumina prices. Demand in the southwest region increases due to upcoming electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects, and supply may decrease due to upcoming maintenance. Nationally, alumina supply is relatively loose, and the increase in electrolytic aluminum plant inventories may put pressure on the alumina spot price [9] - **Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to run strongly in the short term, and follow - up attention should be paid to news and downstream off - season conditions [10] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Geopolitical crisis development, macro policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [11] Zinc - **Logic**: Domestic zinc ore processing fees remain stable, and imported zinc ore processing fees increase. The galvanizing start - up rate rises, and zinc ingot inventories increase. The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreases, raw material inventories slightly increase, and finished product inventories decrease. Domestic inventories decrease overall [12] - **Viewpoint**: Domestic policies boost short - term prices, but medium - to - long - term supply increases put pressure on the upper limit. Attention should be paid to the development of news [13] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Macro policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [14] Tin - **Logic**: The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, resulting in a shortage of raw materials for domestic smelters. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and orders in various sectors decline. Tin prices are supported at the bottom but face pressure at the top. An increase in supply may put pressure on prices [15] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term oscillatory and strong, with increasing downward pressure in the medium term [15] - **Follow - up Concerns**: Resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa), Myanmar, and Malaysia; trade policies of various countries [15] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite**: Domestic high - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; domestic low - grade bauxite prices in Henan remain unchanged week - on - week; imported bauxite average prices decrease week - on - week. The port arrival volume increases week - on - week, and the departure volume decreases week - on - week [19][23] - **Alumina**: Domestic prices in Henan increase week - on - week, the full cost decreases week - on - week, and the profit in Shanxi increases week - on - week [26] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost increases week - on - week, and the regional price difference decreases week - on - week. The start - up rates of some products change, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in different regions and forms shows different trends [28][32][38] - **Spot and Basis**: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum and SMM A00 aluminum in Foshan increases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum shows different changes [44][47][48] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate prices decrease week - on - week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remain unchanged week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate processing fees increase week - on - week. Enterprise production profits decrease week - on - week, import losses decrease week - on - week, and imported zinc concentrate inventories remain unchanged week - on - week [55][58] - **Refined Zinc**: Social inventories of zinc ingots increase week - on - week, bonded area inventories remain unchanged week - on - week, and inventories in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME increase week - on - week [61] - **Galvanizing**: Production decreases week - on - week, the start - up rate increases week - on - week, raw material inventories increase week - on - week, and finished product inventories increase week - on - week [64] - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreases week - on - week, and the monthly spread of Shanghai zinc increases week - on - week [67][71] Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increases week - on - week, and the combined start - up rate also increases week - on - week [75] - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: SHFE tin ingot inventories and Chinese regional social inventories of tin ingots increase week - on - week [78] - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fees**: Processing fees in different regions remain unchanged week - on - week [80] - **Import Profit and Loss and Spot Price**: The import profit and loss level of tin ore increases week - on - week, and the average spot prices of tin concentrates in different regions decrease week - on - week [81][86]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Hongchuang Aluminum Industry Holdings Co., Ltd. is undergoing an asset evaluation process for a share issuance to acquire assets, with a focus on the asset-based and income approaches for valuation, resulting in a significant increase in asset value [1][2]. Asset Evaluation Summary - The asset-based approach and income approach were used for the evaluation, with the asset-based approach concluding a total equity value of 63.518 billion yuan, an increase of 20.778 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 48.62% [1][2]. - The evaluation identified 43 subsidiaries, with 39 wholly-owned, 2 controlled, and 2 affiliated companies, and assessed their net asset values based on ownership percentages [1][3]. - The primary sources of asset value increase were identified as inventory, fixed assets, construction in progress, and land use rights, with specific reasons for inventory valuation increases linked to profit considerations in semi-finished products [1][7]. Financial Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the target assets was reported at 3.49 times, significantly lower than the industry average of 10.61 times and comparable transaction average of 18.35 times; the price-to-book (P/B) ratio was 1.49 times, which is comparable to the industry average of 1.52 times [2][3]. Evaluation Methodology - The evaluation of inventory was based on the replacement cost method, with specific methodologies applied to different asset categories, including fixed assets and land use rights [8][10]. - Fixed assets were evaluated using the replacement cost method, with increases attributed to the economic lifespan exceeding accounting depreciation periods and rising construction costs [10][14]. - Land use rights were evaluated using market comparison, benchmark land price adjustment, and cost approach methods, reflecting an increase in value due to improved investment environments and infrastructure development in the region [24][25]. Specific Asset Increases - The total net asset evaluation increase was reported at 20.778 billion yuan, with significant contributions from fixed assets, land use rights, inventory, and construction in progress, accounting for 95.36% of the total increase [8][9]. - Specific increases included: - Inventory: 800 million yuan increase, 2.30% growth rate - Fixed assets: 6.71 billion yuan increase, 26.16% growth rate - Equipment: 8.68 billion yuan increase, 59.23% growth rate - Land use rights: 3.63 billion yuan increase, 65.83% growth rate [9][10][23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report, but individual metal - specific outlooks are given [1] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Gold is expected to be in a high - level oscillation due to the Fed's dovish remarks, the weakening dollar, and central banks' gold purchases. Silver will have a strong oscillation, affected by industrial demand and other metals' prices. Most base metals like copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum are expected to have short - term rebounds, while industrial silicon and polysilicon will have high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be relatively strong [1] Group 3: Summaries by Metal Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Despite positive US data, Fed officials' dovish stance and ongoing tariff negotiations led to gold and silver maintaining high - level oscillations [2] - **基本逻辑**: The risk of US economic recession is reduced, there are potential changes in the Fed's leadership and possible rate cuts, Japanese inflation shows mixed trends, and with large tariff uncertainties, gold has a long - term bullish outlook [3] - **策略推荐**: Gold may have short - term adjustments, but with the dollar's medium - term weakness, it has strong support around 760. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position approach is recommended [3] Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper strongly rebounded and returned to the 79,000 level [6] - **产业逻辑**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. New smelter production has increased electrolytic copper output. Domestic social inventory has slightly decreased, and LME inventory accumulation has slowed. Downstream开工率 has increased, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors offsets the weak real - estate copper demand [6] - **策略推荐**: With expectations of industry reform and positive overseas economic data, short - term copper long positions should be held, and there is long - term confidence in copper. Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [78500, 80500], and London copper in the range of [9700, 9900] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc rose over 2% and broke through the oscillation range [8] - **产业逻辑**: Zinc ore supply is abundant in 2025. Domestic inventory has slightly increased, and LME inventory has decreased. Downstream galvanizing enterprises'开工率 is affected by weak steel demand [8] - **策略推荐**: Short - term zinc long positions should be held cautiously, and some can take profits at high prices. In the long term, short - selling opportunities should be grasped. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [22500, 23500], and London zinc in the range of [2680, 2880] dollars per ton [9] Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina also showed a rebound trend [10] - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas uncertainties remain, production capacity has increased, inventory has risen, and demand is weak in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea, and short - term supply is tight, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to be loose [11] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000, 20900]. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [12] - **产业逻辑**: For nickel, overseas uncertainties exist, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline. Domestic nickel supply - demand improvement is limited, and inventory has increased. For stainless steel, production cuts have weakened, and inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13] - **策略推荐**: Look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [118000, 122000] [13] Carbonate Lithium - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 increased in position and broke through 70,000 [14] - **产业逻辑**: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are eager to sell, and basis has weakened. Total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. The new - energy vehicle market's growth has slowed, but the energy - storage market supports demand. There are many supply - side disturbances [15] - **策略推荐**: It is expected to operate strongly in the short term, with a range of [68000, 71000] [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, it is currently in a situation of both supply and demand being weak with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and the expectation of the peak season support lead prices. Considering domestic policies guiding the clearance of backward capacity in non - ferrous metals, market sentiment is positive, and short - term prices are expected to be relatively strong [1]. - For the zinc market, there is an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation trend is becoming apparent, showing a weak fundamental situation. However, due to strong market bullish sentiment and the news of clearing backward capacity in non - ferrous metals, short - term prices of Shanghai zinc are expected to be relatively strong, but the upside space may be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.72%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 1.84%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 2.84%, and the open interest decreased by 2.64%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.33% [1]. - **Industry News**: From July 11th to July 17th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 65.82%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 37.9%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points; and the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 70.96%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a stable growth plan for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. A primary lead smelter had equipment maintenance last week, leading to a slight decline in production. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise, and raw materials are in short supply, resulting in some smelters reducing or halting production. The demand side is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream purchases are expected to improve [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.95% from the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract increased by 0.75%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) increased by 3.16%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 2.34%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 94.89%, and the open interest increased by 72.51%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.75% [1]. - **Industry News**: From July 11th to July 17th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 59.12%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 51.95%, a decrease of 1.99 percentage points; and the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.32%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points. In May 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate output was 120,800 metric tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, and the total output from January to May was 579,200 metric tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. As of July 17th, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The tight supply of zinc concentrate is expected to improve, and the limitation on smelter production due to raw material shortages has weakened. On the demand side, although downstream purchases increased slightly when zinc prices fell during the week, the overall weak terminal demand situation remains, and overall purchases are limited [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully issued its first super short-term financing bond for 2025, raising a total of 400 million RMB, as part of its plan to register and issue up to 1 billion RMB in super short-term financing bonds [1][1][1] Group 1: Financing Details - The company held its fourth extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on December 30, 2024, where it approved the proposal to register and issue super short-term financing bonds [1][1] - The total planned issuance amount for the first super short-term financing bond is 400 million RMB, which has been fully raised and deposited into the company's designated account [1][1] - The issuance interest rate for the bond is set at 1.78% with a face value of 100 RMB [1][1] Group 2: Subscription Information - The subscription amount for the bond reached 765 million RMB, with 14 compliant subscription applications received [1][1] - The effective subscription amount was 515 million RMB, with 11 valid applications [1][1] - The highest subscription rate was 1.81%, while the lowest was 1.7% [1][1] Group 3: Underwriters - The book manager and lead underwriter for the bond issuance is China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd., with China Everbright Bank Co., Ltd. serving as the co-lead underwriter [1][1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.43% to $9,678/ton, and SHFE copper主力 rose 0.46% to 78,260 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. US retail sales in June alleviated concerns about consumer spending contraction. LME and Comex copper inventories increased, while domestic social copper inventories decreased. Copper demand showed a short - term recovery, but the off - season led to weak consumption. There is no significant positive factor for copper, and its price trend is unclear. A 50% copper tariff may cause short - term high volatility [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. Guinea's policy on bauxite raised cost concerns. Domestic factors and low inventory levels supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to remain strong, and trading within the 20,000 - level range is recommended. The off - season effect is more obvious for aluminum alloy [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.5% to $15,065/ton, and沪镍 rose 0.72% to 120,490 yuan/ton. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories decreased. In the stainless - steel industry, inventories of different series changed, and in the new - energy industry, demand and production increased slightly. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policy impacts should be watched out for [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increases in LME and SHFE copper. The US economic data influenced the market. Inventory changes were mixed, with an increase in overseas and a decrease in domestic social inventories. Demand recovered slightly but was still weak due to the off - season. The price trend is unclear, and a potential tariff may cause volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: All aluminum - related products trended strongly. Cost concerns from Guinea's policy and domestic factors supported the price. The near - month contract is expected to be strong, and the off - season affects aluminum alloy more [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Price increases in LME and沪镍. Inventory decreases in LME and SHFE. Changes in stainless - steel and new - energy industry inventories and production. The short - term trend is oscillatory, and overseas policies may cause disturbances [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, including flat - water copper, scrap copper, etc. Inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and social inventories. Changes in LME0 - 3 premium, CIF提单, and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Lead**: Price decreases in various lead products. Inventory increases in LME and上期所. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price increases in无锡 and南海 aluminum quotes. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Nickel**: Price decreases in金川镍 and some nickel - related products. Inventory changes in LME,上期所, and social inventories. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 rose 0.3%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 fell 0.7%. Inventory changes in上期所 and LME. Changes in升贴水 and active contract import profit and loss [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot升贴水**: Charts show the spot升贴 water trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][17]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [26][28][30]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with over a decade of experience, Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity atmosphere is warm, which provides support for metal prices, but there are still risks of market fluctuations due to factors such as the US copper tariff and overseas trade uncertainties [2][4]. - Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum are affected by inventory changes and industrial conditions; lead and zinc are influenced by supply and demand balances and macro - monetary policies; tin and nickel are affected by production and downstream demand; and the prices of lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are also subject to various factors such as production, inventory, and market sentiment [2][4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.43% to $9678/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78260 yuan/ton. The price oscillated and rebounded [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 1150 to 122150 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons (SMM caliber). SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.8 to 4.2 million tons [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere is warm, but the US copper tariff expectation brings risks. The copper raw material shortage persists, but the marginal impact weakens. The price rebound is expected to be weak. The operation range of SHFE copper is 77500 - 78800 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9550 - 9760 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum rose 0.52% to $2589/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20520 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is warm, but overseas trade is uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventory is low, but the supply is expected to increase. The short - term price increase drive is weak, and it mainly rebounds with the commodity atmosphere. The operation range of SHFE aluminum is 20300 - 20650 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2550 - 2620 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index fell 0.28% to 16864 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 12 to 1974 dollars/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 million tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the supply and demand are slightly in surplus. The domestic lead price is expected to run weakly [5]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22109 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 2 to 2697 dollars/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 9.35 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the zinc price is bearish. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate due to the strong overall commodity atmosphere [7]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price oscillated [9]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a low level, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply and demand are balanced [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, the short - term tin price is expected to oscillate weakly. The operation range of domestic tin price is 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin price is 31000 - 35000 dollars/ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price oscillated [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The contradiction in the nickel market lies in the ferro - nickel production line. The ferro - nickel price is expected to follow the decline of the ore price. The nickel price has a certain short - selling cost - performance, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operation range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16000 dollars/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index rose 0.78%, and the LC2509 contract rose 2.32% [13]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The production increased by 1.6% to 19115 tons, and the inventory increased by 1.3% to 142620 tons [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side disturbances are frequent. The operation range of the LC2509 contract is 66200 - 69500 yuan/ton [13]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 0.48% to 3079 yuan/ton [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The mineral price is expected to strengthen in the medium - term, but the alumina over - capacity pattern remains. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operation range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.47% to 12730 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 1.69% to 114.78 million tons [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Although it is the traditional off - season, the market activity has increased after the price bottomed out. The price is expected to rise slightly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.18% to 19845 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 0.03 million tons to 2.83 million tons [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The price has a large upward resistance [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, with the implementation date possibly from late July to August 1st. COMEX copper rose 16% due to this news. However, the US has filled its annual rigid import gap for electrolytic copper, so the CL spread doesn't need to fully price in the 50% tariff in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether some countries get exemptions. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, and the demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The supply and demand are balanced, and the short - term fundamentals are okay. Pay attention to the demand situation and consider far - month inter - month and inside - outside reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase, while domestic demand is seasonally weak and overseas demand is also not strong. There is a risk of a squeeze in the LME market when inventory is below 100,000 tons. The strategy is to maintain a short - allocation for zinc, hold inside - outside positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [2] - Nickel supply remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports was abolished, concerns about ore - end disturbances eased. Continue to focus on the opportunity for the nickel - stainless steel price ratio to shrink [6] - Stainless steel supply has seen some passive production cuts since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10] - Lead prices slightly declined this week. Supply and demand are both weak in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,500 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price stays above 17,200 due to macro - factors [12] - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to smelter maintenance. Demand is weak, and the LME inventory is at a low level but a turning point for inventory accumulation is emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14] - Industrial silicon production is expected to decline in July due to a large - scale production cut by Hesheng. The market expects a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. If the start - up rate doesn't recover significantly, the industrial silicon futures are expected to oscillate [18] - Carbonate lithium futures prices rebounded from a low level. The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A significant downward trend requires a large - scale accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot inventory [20] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by - 50, the premium/discount changed by 35, and the LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons [1] - **Market Impact of Tariff**: The US has filled its annual rigid import gap for copper. The 50% tariff may not need to be fully priced in the CL spread in the short term. South American countries' copper exports may be affected, and the high - premium in Southeast Asia and Europe may decline. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10, and the LME inventory increased by 6,550 tons [1] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are balanced [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 100, and the LME inventory increased by 2,750 tons [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also not strong. There is a risk of a squeeze in the LME market when inventory is below 100,000 tons [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1,500, and the LME inventory increased by 708 tons [6] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreases slightly [6] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged [10] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has seen some passive production cuts since late May, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [10] Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the lead price slightly declined, and the LME inventory decreased by 1,850 tons [12] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply and demand are both weak in July, and it is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,500 next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the tin price fluctuated widely, and the LME inventory increased by 55 tons [14] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to smelter maintenance, and demand is weak [14] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the 421 Yunnan basis changed by 100, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 43 [18] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Production is expected to decline in July due to a large - scale production cut by Hesheng, and the market expects a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [18] Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 10 - 16, the SMM electric carbonate price increased by 50, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 548 [20] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate [20]