Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Oscillating [6] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [6] - Scrap Steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Coking Coal: Oscillating Weakly [10] - Glass: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Soda Ash: Oscillating Weakly [11] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the macro - sentiment was weak, and the US further imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing the prices of black building materials to decline. However, the actual impact of tariffs was limited, and there were rumors of Mongolia increasing resource taxes, leading to a price rebound at night. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the manufacturing's rush for exports is less than expected. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability provides cost support. Low valuations drive price rebounds, but the upside is limited [1][2]. - In terms of iron elements, the overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. The new projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [2]. - For carbon elements, the coking coal production remains high, and the Mongolian coal port clearance is also at a high level, resulting in a loose supply. The coke production is at a high level, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The coking coal inventory pressure upstream is increasing, and it's difficult to find price support [2]. - Regarding alloys, the arrival of South32 Australian ore at the port increases the pressure on oxidized ore spot. The ban on manganese ore exports by Gabon has no obvious impact on the domestic market. With the recovery of manganese ore shipments, the port inventory is rising, and the cost drag persists. The ferrosilicon supply increases slightly, and the downstream is eager to reduce inventory. The glass demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - side news can cause market fluctuations. The soda ash supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Core Logic: The overseas supply increase is lower than expected, and the annual cumulative shipment is down year - on - year. New projects' progress is slow, and the annual increase is revised down. Steel enterprises' profitability and orders are good, and the molten iron output is expected to remain high, so the annual molten iron output is expected to be higher than last year. Before September, the inventory accumulation pressure is small, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The black sector rebounded last night, and iron ore also rose slightly [2][6]. - Outlook: The US tariff policy has limited actual negative impact on iron ore, but may cause pessimistic sentiment. Considering the uncertain policies, the tight supply - demand balance, and the fact that the price has factored in many negative factors, the room for further significant decline is limited [6]. Steel - Core Logic: The domestic policy is in a vacuum, and there are still tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand outlook is weak. The molten iron output is high, and the steel production has increased. Although the supply - demand fundamentals improved this week and the inventory decreased, the falling raw material prices and pessimistic demand expectations suppress the price [6]. - Outlook: The fundamentals improved this week, but the outlook is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The post - holiday scrap steel arrival was low, and the loss during off - peak electricity hours increased. The apparent demand for rebar rebounded slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The supply was tight after the holiday, and the demand from electric furnaces and blast furnaces was affected. The inventory increased slightly [7]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace loss is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. Coke - Core Logic: The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening as the molten iron output declines and the off - season approaches [7][9]. - Outlook: The falling coking coal price weakens the cost support, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [9]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: The market trading atmosphere is weak, and coal mines face shipment pressure. The supply is still loose as the production remains high and the Mongolian coal port clearance is high. The coke production is high, but coke enterprises face inventory reduction pressure, and the coking profit is shrinking. The upstream inventory pressure is increasing [10]. - Outlook: The market is pessimistic, the supply - demand is loose, and the high inventory suppresses the price. The price is expected to remain weak [10]. Glass - Core Logic: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, and the deep - processing demand improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. There was cold - repair and复产, and the supply pressure remains. The inventory decreased slightly, and the market is sensitive to supply - side news [3][11]. - Outlook: The real - world demand faces pressure in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts in Hubei [11]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The supply pressure persists as some enterprises' production has recovered. The demand for heavy alkali is for rigid needs, and the increase in float glass daily melting is uncertain. The short - term inventory decreased due to maintenance, but the long - term surplus remains [11]. - Outlook: The supply surplus remains, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [11]. Ferrosilicon Manganese - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon manganese price was weak. The cost pressure is high as the market is bearish on raw materials, and the South32 Australian ore is arriving at the port. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season [13]. - Outlook: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to continue to decline as the manganese ore inventory rises and the coke price is falling [13]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The ferrosilicon price was weak. The supply increased slightly as some furnaces were restarted. The demand is weak as the steel market enters the off - season and the metal magnesium market is sluggish [14]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are both weak, and the demand may weaken further. The price is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: After OPEC's production increase in July, the previous negative factors were exhausted. With the threat of wildfires in Canada and rising geopolitical risks, combined with short - term macro - stability, oil prices are strong in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to relatively weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited. The short - term Brent price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the operating range moving up to $65 - 68 per barrel, and the medium - term range is expected to be $63 - 70 per barrel [1][2]. - Asphalt: The overall supply - demand pattern is loose. Although the cost of crude oil has increased, the market's acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has a certain upward trend [3][4]. - Liquefied gas: In the international market, the CP price has increased, while the FEI has decreased. In the domestic market, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased the pressure on the market, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply from Russia, Mexico, and the Middle East is expected to decline, while the demand for seasonal power generation is supportive. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [9][11]. - Natural gas: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - PX: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [14][16]. - PTA: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [17][18]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [20][21]. - Short - fiber: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [22][23]. - Bottle - chip: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [24][26]. - Styrene: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [26][27]. - PVC: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, with supply increasing and demand affected by real estate and export uncertainties [29][30]. - Caustic soda: The 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish. Although there is still some support in the short - term, the upward driving force for the spot price is weakening [30][31]. - Plastic and PP: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [32][34]. - Glass: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [34][37]. - Soda ash: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [38][40]. - Urea: The daily output is at a high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as international price changes, compound fertilizer production, and export policies. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [41][42]. - Methanol: The international supply is still high, the domestic supply is loose, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. The price is still recommended to be shorted on rebounds [43][45]. - Log: The downstream market is still sluggish, and the long - term market faces challenges from weak real - estate demand and increased port inventory. However, the large scale difference in delivery has a certain supporting effect on the current price [45][48]. - Double - offset paper: The market was weak in May, and in June, short - term technical rebounds may occur, but long - term risks from over - capacity and weak demand need to be vigilant [48][49]. - Corrugated paper: In May, the demand showed structural improvement, but in June, attention should be paid to factors such as the implementation of price - increase policies, export order sustainability, and waste - paper price fluctuations [50]. - Natural rubber: The domestic inventory is still at a high level, and the production index of French rubber machinery has decreased. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [51][54]. - Pulp: The domestic and foreign paper - making industries have shown signs of production reduction, which is negative for the SP single - side. The short - term trading strategy is to try to go long on a small scale [54][56]. - Butadiene rubber: The short - term supply contraction has led to price increases, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the expansion of downstream ABS capacity. The short - term trading strategy is to hold short positions [58][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2507 contract settled at $63.41, up $0.89 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.42%; Brent2508 contract settled at $65.63, up $1.00 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.55%. SC main contract 2507 rose 12.4 to 465 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it rose 4.0 to 469 yuan per barrel [1]. - Related News: The US has asked countries to submit their best trade negotiation plans by Wednesday. The US labor market is showing signs of softening, with an increase in job vacancies but also a large increase in layoffs [1]. - Logic Analysis: After OPEC's production increase, the previous negative factors were exhausted. Geopolitical risks have risen, and the macro - situation is stable in the short - term. However, in the long - term, due to weak demand and continuous supply growth, the upside space is limited [2]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are expected to weaken; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2507 closed at 3524 points (+1.21%) in the night session, and BU2509 closed at 3495 points (+1.13%) in the night session. The spot price in Shandong on June 3 was 3470 - 3870 yuan, in the East China region was 3550 - 3620 yuan, and in the South China region was 3360 - 3450 yuan [3]. - Related News: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong rose by 25 yuan per ton. The demand is weak, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is poor. However, due to the maintenance plan of some refineries and low inventory levels, the price has increased [3][4]. - Logic Analysis: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is mainly stable. In the short - term, the terminal demand is limited, and the mainstream transaction price is concentrated at the lower end [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation; asphalt - crude oil spread oscillates at a high level; options are on hold [6]. Liquefied Gas - Market Review: PG2507 closed at 4075 (+0.27%) in the night session, and PG2508 closed at 4004 (+0.18%) in the night session. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong is given [6]. - Related News: The market in South China is generally stable, with some hidden discounts. The market in Shandong is stable with some small increases, and the ether - post - carbon - four market is expected to rise steadily [7]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the CP price has increased, and the FEI has decreased. Domestically, supply is increasing, and the summer off - season has increased market pressure, with the fundamentals running weakly [8]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU07 contract closed at 2943 (-0.03%) in the night session, and LU07 closed at 3535 (+1.61%) in the night session. The Singapore paper - futures market's month - to - month spreads are given [9]. - Related News: Russia's exports of some oil products are expected to change in June, and Nigeria's Dangote refinery will import a large amount of US WTI crude oil in July [9]. - Logic Analysis: High - sulfur fuel oil has high near - month cracking and month - to - month spreads, and the spot premium has rebounded. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a stable supply increase and weak downstream demand [11]. - Trading Strategy: On hold for single - side trading; go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread when the price is low [12]. Natural Gas - Market Review: HH contract closed at 3.7 (+0.76%), TTF closed at 35.848 (+2.38%), and JKM closed at 12.345 (+1.69%) [12]. - Logic Analysis: In the US, due to increased demand, the price is expected to rebound. In Europe, supply restrictions and geopolitical tensions offset weak demand, and the price has returned above 35 euros. Europe still faces challenges in refilling gas storage [12][13]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on HH on dips; TTF is expected to oscillate strongly [14]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6524 (-1.42%) during the day and 6618 (+1.44%) in the night session. The spot price, MOPJ valuation, and PXN spread are given [14]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [15]. - Logic Analysis: As the efficiency of PX improves, the operating rate is expected to increase in June, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with the spot shortage situation expected to ease [16]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [16]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4628 (-1.53%) during the day and 4706 (+1.69%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [17]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and a PTA device has restarted [15][18]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, while the polyester industry plans to reduce production, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to weaken, and the processing fee may be compressed [18]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; go long on PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4306 (-0.99%) during the day and 4319 (+0.30%) in the night session. The spot price and basis are given [18][19]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and some EG devices have restarted or are under maintenance [20]. - Logic Analysis: The inventory is expected to decline in the short - term, but the supply will increase in June due to some restarted maintenance. The downstream polyester operating rate is weakening, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, maintaining a tight balance [21]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; basis positive spread; sell call options [22]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2507 main contract closed at 6338 (-0.72%) during the day and 6426 (+1.39%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions is given [22]. - Related News: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light [23]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate is stable, and the terminal demand is mainly for fulfilling previous orders. There are still production reduction plans in June, but the supply loss is limited. The processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [23]. - Trading Strategy: High - level oscillation; short PTA and long PF; options are on hold [24]. Bottle - chip - Market Review: PR2507 main contract closed at 5912 (-1.17%) during the day and 5958 (+0.78%) in the night session. The spot price of polyester bottle - chips is given [24]. - Related News: The export quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories are mostly stable [25]. - Logic Analysis: The operating rate has decreased, and the processing fee fluctuates within a narrow range. In June, the downstream soft - drink industry will enter the production peak, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong, with the processing fee having strong support [26]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation consolidation; options are on hold; sell call options [26]. Styrene - Market Review: EB2507 main contract closed at 7018 (-1.71%) during the day and 7133 (+1.64%) in the night session. The spot price and basis in different periods are given [26]. - Related News: The inventory in the East China main port of styrene has increased, and the upstream pure - benzene port inventory has also increased [26]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is expected to increase, and the port inventory is expected to increase from a low level, with the supply - demand relationship weakening [27]. - Trading Strategy: Oscillation weakly; options are on hold; sell call options [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: The spot price of PVC has slightly decreased, and the spot price of caustic soda in different regions has changed [29]. - Related News: The price of caustic soda in some factories has changed, and the Indian BIS hearing has no news yet [30]. - Logic Analysis: PVC's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term, and caustic soda's 09 - contract is expected to be weak, with the medium - term trend being bearish [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, go short on caustic soda at high prices and hold short positions on PVC; for arbitrage, arrange a 7 - 9 reverse spread when the spot weakens; options are on hold [32]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: The spot price of LLDPE in different regions has changed, and the spot price of PP in different regions has decreased [32]. - Related News: The maintenance ratio of PE and PP has decreased [33]. - Logic Analysis: The new production capacity is being realized, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 - contract's supply - demand situation is expected to be weak [34]. - Trading Strategy: Short - and medium - term weakness, hold short positions; options are on hold; arbitrage is on hold [34]. Glass - Market Review: The glass futures 09 - contract closed at 954 (-2.85%) during the day and 965 (+1.15%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [34][35]. - Related News: The China May Caixin Manufacturing PMI has contracted, and the price of the domestic float - glass market has decreased slightly. A glass production line has restarted [36]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is affected by the real estate cycle. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the medium - term focus is on cost reduction and factory cold - repair [37]. - Trading Strategy: Price oscillates weakly [38]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda - ash futures 09 - contract closed at 1185 (-1.2%) during the day and 1213 (+2.4%) in the night session. The spot price in different regions has changed [38]. - Related News: A soda - ash device has resumed operation, and the domestic soda - ash market is adjusting weakly [39][40]. - Logic Analysis: The supply is increasing, the cost is weakening, and the demand is stable in the short - term but worrying in the medium - term. The price is expected to decline gradually [40]. - Trading Strategy: Bearish judgment, gradual

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1185 231 | -14 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 14 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 954 1438866 | -28 17164 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1561412 | 51077 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -196915 | 47021 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -206160 | 5691 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 2062 | 0 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | 10 | 3 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -60 | 1 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 50 | 14 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | 114 | 24 | | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to be weak, with the main contract SA2509 closing 4.31% lower than the previous week at 1,199 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,235 yuan/ton, down 5.00% from the previous week [2]. - The decline in soda ash supply has slowed down, and demand is weak. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. - The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved, with supply at a high level and declining, limited improvement in terminal demand, and inventory still at a high level in the same period [7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Weekly Market Conditions - Futures: The main contract SA2509 of soda ash futures closed at 1,199 yuan/ton, down 4.31% from the previous week [2]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,235 yuan/ton, down 5.00% from the previous week. The main basis was 36 yuan/ton, down 23.40% [2][9]. Supply - Side Analysis - Production: Although some enterprises will reduce production next week, some previously shut - down plants will resume. In June, there are fewer maintenance enterprises, and supply is expected to increase slightly to 690,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 79% [3]. - Capacity Changes: Since 2023, soda ash capacity has expanded significantly. In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [8][27]. Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Demand: The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is general. The daily melting volume of float glass is 157,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 98,800 tons, unchanged from the previous week. Purchases are mainly for just - in - time replenishment, and overall consumption fluctuates little [3]. - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 107.66% [30]. Inventory Analysis - As of May 29, the total inventory of soda ash in domestic factories was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% from the previous week, but still at a high level in the same period [3]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [6]. - Negative Factors: The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and inventory is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1纯碱市场 - 纯碱检修计划衔接力度略不及预期及新产能投放取得进展，产量见底回升；前期基差力度不足导致未能形成持续正反馈，当前期现优势出货，厂家间压力分化 [8][9]。 - 供应重回上行，带动库存压力回升；终端备货较充足，终端利润状况较差，驱动偏弱。但阶段性盘面贴水较大，期现大幅出货后持货减少，结合头部厂家产量负荷波动，短期可转观望 [9]。 - 策略建议：前期空头思路可阶段逢低获利，重新等待入场机会 [9]。 2.2玻璃市场 - 需求氛围弱势及部分区域受低价期现货源压制，低价区厂家降价以促出货。部分厂家据自身情况点火复产 [169]。 - 估值角度进入理想布局区间，但须等待市场情绪好转启动。后续跟踪产线变动情况，观察低价期现货源消化进度及主产区现货量价情绪变化 [169]。 - 策略建议：市场暂缺上行驱动，远月合约待情绪缓和逢低做多思路 [169]。 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1纯碱市场 3.1.1市场综述 - 当期总产量68.51万吨，环比增加2.13万吨；重质产量36.98万吨，环比增加0.98万吨；轻质产量31.53万吨，环比增加1.15万吨 [8]。 - 进口0.1万吨，环比持平；出口4万吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 浮法玻璃日熔量157,275吨，环比减少250吨；光伏玻璃日熔量98,780吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 重碱消费量34.46万吨，环比减少0.04万吨；轻碱表需30.38万吨，环比增加3.01万吨；纯碱表需73.76万吨，环比增加3.86万吨 [8]。 - 碱厂库存162.43万吨，环比减少5.25万吨；社会库存36.80万吨，环比持平 [8]。 - 氨碱法成本1317元，环比持平；氨碱法利润83元，环比增加55元；联碱法成本1123元，环比减少33元；联碱法利润177元，环比增加33元 [8]。 3.1.2月度供需 - 当期纯碱进口0.46万吨，环比增加0.14万吨；出口17.06万吨，环比减少2.37万吨 [16]。 - 纯碱进口依赖度0.11，环比增加0.01 [16]。 3.1.3基差价差 - 展示了沙河地区重质纯碱市场价、纯碱期货价格指数、沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、玻璃期货价格指数等期现货价格对照 [24][25][26][27]。 - 展示了沙河重质纯碱01、09、05合约基差，纯碱09 - 01、01 - 05、05 - 09价差，玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差等 [29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39][40][41]。 3.1.4市场价格 - 沙河区域重质纯碱市场价当期值1243元，环比上周下降45元，环比去年下降907元 [45]。 - 展示了轻重碱区域价格表，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区重质纯碱和轻质纯碱价格及环比情况 [49]。 3.1.5供应 - 目前检修/降负荷的厂家有山东海化、安徽德邦等多家企业；计划检修的厂家有丰城盐化、发投碱业等 [83]。 - 国内纯碱开工率当期值78.57%，环比上周下降0.06%；周产量68.51万吨，环比增加2.13万吨 [84]。 - 展示了氨碱工艺、联碱工艺开工率及各区域纯碱开工率 [85][88][90]。 - 展示了国内重质、轻质纯碱周产量及国内纯碱周产量 [92][93]。 - 展示了氨碱法、联碱法成本利润及相关品价格，如合成氨价格指数、河南液氨市场价等 [95][97][99][101][108][110]。 3.1.6需求 - 展示了光伏玻璃在产日熔量、浮法玻璃在产日熔量、重质纯碱日耗量、重质纯碱周度需求等数据 [131][133][134][135]。 - 展示了轻质、重质纯碱周度消费量、产销率及光伏玻璃价格 [137][140]。 3.1.7库存 - 纯碱企业库存当期值162.43万吨，环比上周减少5.25万吨；轻质纯碱企业库存81.83万吨，环比减少1.45万吨；重质纯碱企业库存80.6万吨，环比减少3.80万吨 [145]。 - 展示了各区域纯碱库存情况 [154][155][157][158][159][161]。 3.2玻璃市场 3.2.1市场综述 - 浮法玻璃日熔量当期值157,275吨，环比减少250吨；周产量110.09万吨，环比减少0.17万吨 [167]。 - 表观消费量110.94万吨，环比减少0.33万吨 [167]。 - 厂库库存338.31万吨，环比减少0.53万吨 [167]。 - 天然气线成本1448元，环比持平；天然气线利润 - 148元，环比减少10元；煤制气线成本953元，环比减少9元；煤制气线利润177元，环比减少1元；石油焦线成本1081元，环比持平；石油焦线利润19元，环比减少10元 [167]。 3.2.2月度供需 - 展示了平板玻璃当月产量、浮法玻璃当月进口量、出口量及平板玻璃当月产量同比数据 [174][176][178][180]。 3.2.3基差价差 - 展示了沙河地区重质纯碱市场价、纯碱期货价格指数、沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、玻璃期货价格指数等期现货价格对照 [184][185][186][187]。 - 展示了沙河玻璃5mm大板01、09、05合约基差，玻璃09 - 01、05 - 09、01 - 05价差，玻璃 - 纯碱合约/现货价差等 [189][190][192][194][195][196][199][201][202][203]。 3.2.4市场价格 - 展示了浮法玻璃5mm区域价格表，包括沙河、华北、华东等地区5mm小板和大板价格及环比情况 [207]。 - 展示了沙河、华东、华北等地区浮法玻璃(5mm)市场价及沙河玻璃5mm大板含税价、京津唐5mm玻璃大板含税价等 [209][210][211][220]。

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The supply of soda ash has declined from its high level and gradually stabilized, while the terminal demand has limited improvement. Although the inventory has been continuously decreasing, it still remains at a historically high level. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The short - term outlook for soda ash is expected to be a low - level, weak, and volatile trend [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The maintenance of alkali plants is gradually being restored. Supply has declined from its high level and is gradually stabilizing. The daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants has decreased but remains at a historically high level. Overall, it is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,235 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,199 yuan/ton, and the basis is 36 yuan, indicating that the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. It is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash plants is 162.43 tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. It is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to have a low - level, weak, and volatile trend in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historical high. The cold - repair of float glass for heavy - alkali downstream is at a high level, and the daily melting volume has been continuously decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy - quality Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,203 yuan/ton | 1,245 yuan/ton | 42 yuan/ton | | Current Value | 1,199 yuan/ton | 1,235 yuan/ton | 36 yuan/ton | | Change | - 0.33% | - 0.80% | - 14.29% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Production Profit**: The profit of the combined - soda process for heavy - alkali in East China is 105 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy - alkali in North China is - 12.80 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historically low level [15]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 78.52%, and the operating rate is expected to stabilize. The weekly production of soda ash is 68.51 tons, of which 36.98 tons is heavy - quality soda ash, and the production has declined from its historical high [19][21]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual expected production of 100 tons [22]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [25]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.73 tons, and the operating rate of 75.73% is continuously declining, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, and the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, with production stabilizing [28][31]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash plants is 162.43 tons, of which 80.60 tons is heavy - quality soda ash. The inventory is at a historically high level [34]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production capacity, output, import, export, and other data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and growth rate changes in different years [35].

Report Information - Analyst: He Hui, Energy and Chemical Team, including Guo Jianfeng, Guo Yanpeng, and Li Qian [2] - Company: Zhonghui Futures Co., Ltd. - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In May, the domestic and overseas macroeconomic situation did not improve significantly, and the commodity market was weak. The soda ash futures market was also in a downward trend, searching for a bottom. [3] - Soda ash is facing a situation of over - capacity, insufficient demand, and cost collapse. In the short term, it is difficult to find supply - demand drivers, while in the long - term, it is anchored to natural soda ash cost and demand growth rate. [3] Market Review Futures Market - As of May 30, the SA2509 contract closed at 1,190 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of - 12% (a decrease of 165 yuan) [6] 现货市场 - In May, the prices of heavy soda ash were differentiated, with most prices decreasing by 50 yuan/ton, a change ranging from - 5.1% to 3.2% [6] Basis - In May, the spot price of soda ash was weak, while the futures price was even weaker, resulting in a stronger basis. The basis of the main SA509 contract (against Shahe heavy soda ash) was 40 points, with a basis rate of 3.3% [8] Inter - month Spread - The SA09 - 01 contract spread was 2 points, changing from negative to positive, showing a flat - water structure. The SA01 - 05 contract spread was - 52 points, indicating a weaker expectation for the far - month contract [11] Term Structure and Inter - commodity Spread - The soda ash futures market changed from a contango structure to a near - month back flat - water structure, compressing the downward space. The FG - SA09 contract spread was about - 200, and the long - glass short - soda ash spread had a profit of 100 points from - 300 [13] Supply Analysis Device Maintenance and New Capacity - Currently, the maintenance devices of soda ash plants are gradually restarting, and new capacities are being put into production one after another. In 2025, the total planned new capacity is 590 tons/year [17][18] Operating Rate - In May, the comprehensive operating rate of soda ash decreased significantly. Currently, the national operating rate is 78.57% (a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%), with the ammonia - soda process operating rate at 71.41% (a month - on - month decrease of 15.71%) and the combined - soda process operating rate at 76.54% (a month - on - month decrease of 10.58%) [20] Production - In May, the weekly average production of soda ash was 70.32 tons, with the estimated monthly production at 311.41 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The weekly average production of heavy soda ash was 38.38 tons, with the estimated monthly production at 170 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [31][34] Demand Analysis Glass Melting Volume - Currently, the daily melting volume of float glass is 15.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 9.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [39] Total Melting Volume - In May, the average daily total production of float glass and photovoltaic glass was 25.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% [42] Supply - demand Gap of Heavy Soda Ash - In May, the estimated monthly demand for heavy soda ash was 158.4 tons, and the supply - demand surplus was 11.55 tons, still in a state of oversupply [43] Inventory Analysis Total Inventory - Currently, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 162.43 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 98.52%. The available inventory days are 13.47 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 days and a year - on - year increase of 6.6 days [51] Inventory of Heavy and Light Soda Ash - Currently, the inventory of heavy soda ash is 80.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 76.95%. The inventory of light soda ash is 81.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 125.6% [54] Cost and Profit Analysis Cost - Currently, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process is 1,283 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.39%. The production cost of the combined - soda process (double - ton) is 1,610 yuan/ton (75% single - ton cost is 1,208 yuan), a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.1% [58] Profit - Currently, the production profit of the ammonia - soda process is 67.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49.7 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 85.28%. The production profit of the combined - soda process is 215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.5 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 78.49% [60] Trading Strategies Single - side Strategy - Currently, the main 09 contract has fallen below the combined - soda process cost of 1,200 yuan/ton. Technically, it shows a short - position arrangement of moving averages. Maintain a bearish view, dynamically track the pressure level of the 20 - day moving average, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,250 [4] Arbitrage Strategy - Currently, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash is near 0, almost at par. Considering the seasonal maintenance in summer and the planned new natural soda ash capacity at the end of the year, participate in the 9 - 1 positive spread. In terms of inter - commodity spreads, the FG - SA09 contract spread is about - 200, and the long - glass short - soda ash spread can still be held in the short term, and stop profit when the spread narrows to - 150 [4] Hedging Strategy - Currently, the inventory of soda ash plants is at an absolute high level. Upstream enterprises can pay attention to the short - hedging opportunities of the 09 contract when the futures price is at a premium or at par with the spot price, around 1,200 - 1,250. Downstream glass enterprises can conduct long - hedging when the futures price is lower than the spot delivery cost [4]

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish, Expected to Oscillate with a Downward Bias [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] Core Views - Glass and soda ash markets face an oversupply situation, resulting in low - level oscillations. The glass market is pressured by high inventory and weak downstream expectations, while soda ash is affected by new production capacity and cautious downstream procurement [1]. - The ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are pessimistic. Their prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand shows some resilience due to high - level hot metal production. Cost factors also play a role in price trends [3][4]. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Futures prices continued to decline, and spot trading was weak. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and high inventory strongly suppresses prices. Glass enterprises are reluctant to shut down production, and long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity. Attention should be paid to production line changes and raw material prices [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices trended downward. Due to maintenance, daily production decreased slightly. Downstream procurement was cautious, and the market faced strong destocking pressure. The price will be under pressure until the oversupply situation is alleviated. Follow - up attention should be paid to production line maintenance and new production projects [1]. Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market was weak, and factory low - price sales willingness was low. Production was at a low level but rebounded slightly week - on - week. Demand showed resilience due to high - level hot metal production. High inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppressed prices, while raw material supply contraction supported costs. Attention should be paid to hot metal data and manganese ore supply [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices oscillated weakly at a low level. The spot market was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. Production reached a record low due to enterprise losses. High - level hot metal maintained demand resilience, but destocking was difficult. Short - term prices were affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [4]. Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillate [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillate with a downward bias [2] - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Oscillate [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillate [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [2]

Group 1 - As of May 29, 2023, seven steel mills in Shandong have confirmed a total annual production target of 55.33 million tons, a decrease of approximately 3.5 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a planned reduction in crude steel production of 4%-10% for 2025 [1] - According to Mysteel, as of May 29, the production of rebar has shifted from an increase to a decrease, with social inventories declining for the twelfth consecutive week, while market demand has increased slightly to 2.4868 million tons, up by 15,500 tons or 0.63% from the previous week [1] - A stainless steel plant in South China plans to halt production for approximately 25 days starting July 5 due to ultra-low emission renovations, which is expected to impact stainless steel output by 80,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The Malaysian government plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio for ground transportation vehicles from B10 to B20 [1] - As of May 25, 2023, Canadian canola exports decreased by 10.36% week-on-week to 160,100 tons, while commercial inventories stood at 919,900 tons [1] - As of May 29, the total inventory of float glass in China was 67.662 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 107,000 boxes week-on-week, while the total inventory of soda ash was 1.6243 million tons, down by 52,500 tons [2] Group 3 - OPEC+ member countries are expected to decide on increasing oil production at a meeting on May 31, although the potential scale of the increase remains unclear [2] - A major aluminum supplier has lowered its aluminum premium for shipments to Japan in Q3 to $145 per ton, down by 20% from Q2's $182 per ton [3]

以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。当下价 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 拉动。注意仓位操作，操作上建议，纯碱主力逢高空.玻璃方面，供应端：部分地区产线复产，且下周有产 线存点火计划，预计周度产量存增加预期。行业整体利润不佳，企业挺价意愿有限，供应压力对价格上行 免责声明 形成阻力。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，传统淡季下需求将进一步走弱。下游深加工订单不稳定，采购 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-05-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1203 | -12 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 985 | -24 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 218 | 12 纯碱主力合约持仓量 ...