中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 债券收益率冲高回落，影响黄金的短期节奏，但是关税问题远没有解决，俄乌 | | 黄金 | 震荡冲高 | 战火、中东仍然复杂。央行或继续购金。本轮大牛的主要驱动是国际秩序改变， | | | | 长期看黄金是未来秩序筹码，尚在秩序重塑途中，战略配置价值高。【760-787】 | | 白银 | 区间震荡 | 需求方面，全球经济需求较去年或有下降，供给量变化不大，尽管各国财政关 税对冲关税带来的负面影响，但是受黄金和基本金属影响较大，黄金波动刺激 | | | | 跟随，价格没有摆脱此前区间，操作上仍延续此前的区间思路对待。【8200-8390】 | | 铜 | 承压 | 随着端午假期临近，市场避险情绪回升，铜承压回落，关注下方整数关口支撑，空 | | | | 仓或者轻仓过节，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77000，78000】 | | 锌 | 承压 | 短期供应扰动冲击影响消退，随着端午长假临近，市场避险情绪回升，建议暂 | | | | 时观望，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。沪锌关注区间【22 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, while silver will follow suit [2][5]. - Copper prices are restricted from falling due to inventory reduction [2][10]. - Aluminum will trade within a range, and alumina will continue to decline [2][13]. - Zinc is under pressure, and lead will trade within a range [2][16][19]. - Tin will experience narrow - range oscillations [2][22]. - Nickel is pressured by weak expectations and nickel ore news, while stainless steel is unlikely to fall sharply due to increased marginal production cuts caused by negative feedback [2][28]. - The price of lithium carbonate may remain weak in the short term as the ore price continues to decline [2][34]. - The industrial silicon futures price hits a new low, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Polysilicon shows a weak spot market and a weak futures performance [2][37]. - Iron ore will oscillate weakly as downstream demand reaches a phased peak [2][41]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil will oscillate downward due to the anticipation of negative feedback [2][46][47]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will oscillate at low levels as demand expectations weaken [2][51]. - Coke will oscillate at the bottom after the second price cut is implemented, and coking coal will also oscillate at the bottom with the arrival of environmental protection supervision teams [2][55][56]. - Steam coal will oscillate weakly as coal mine inventory increases [2][59]. - Logs will oscillate weakly [2][62]. - For p - xylene and PTA, go long on PX and short on PTA. For MEG, short unilaterally and go long on PTA while shorting MEG [2][29]. - Rubber will oscillate weakly, and synthetic rubber will perform weakly [2][32][34]. - Asphalt will oscillate within a range following crude oil [2][36]. - LLDPE will perform weakly, and PP prices will decline slightly with average trading volume [2][38][40]. - Caustic soda will trade in a range for the time being, and pulp will oscillate [2][41][43]. - Glass prices will remain stable, and methanol will perform weakly [2][45][46]. - Urea will oscillate with weak domestic demand and export support, and styrene will oscillate in the short term [2][48][50]. - Soda ash will see little change in the spot market [2][52]. - LPG will oscillate in the short term, and PVC will perform weakly [2][53][56]. - Fuel oil rebounded during the day session and gapped up significantly at night. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [2][58]. - The container shipping index (European line) will oscillate at a high level, and it is advisable to hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread [2][59]. - Staple fiber will trade in a range in the short term, and bottle chips will also trade in a range in the short term, with the suggestion to go long on processing fees at low prices [2][63]. - Offset printing paper will oscillate weakly [2][64]. - Palm oil will explore the bottom while oscillating due to ongoing risks in the producing areas, and soybean oil will trade within a range as the driving force of the soybean complex is weak [2][65]. - Soybean meal may oscillate weakly as overnight US soybeans closed lower, and soybeans No. 1 will oscillate weakly with stable spot prices [2][68]. - Corn will oscillate strongly, and sugar will break through the support level and decline [2][70][71]. - Cotton prices lack upward momentum as demand enters the off - season [2][72]. - For eggs, wait for the verification of culling after the Dragon Boat Festival, and for live pigs, passive inventory accumulation has occurred, and it is advisable to arrange for a trend reverse spread [2][74][75]. - Peanuts will oscillate [2][76]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, and silver will follow. The trend intensity of both is 0. The report provides detailed data on precious metals, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price spreads [2][5][6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are restricted from falling due to inventory reduction. The trend intensity is 0. The report presents copper - related data and macro and industry news [10][12]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum will trade within a range, and alumina will continue to decline. The trend intensity of both is 0. The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum and alumina and includes comprehensive news [13][15]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1. The report provides zinc's fundamental data and news [16][17]. - **Lead**: Lead will trade within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The report offers lead's fundamental data and news [19][20]. - **Tin**: Tin will experience narrow - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of - 1. The report provides tin's fundamental data and macro and industry news [22][27]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is pressured by weak expectations and nickel ore news, while stainless steel is unlikely to fall sharply due to increased marginal production cuts caused by negative feedback. The trend intensity of both is 0. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [28][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate may remain weak in the short term as the ore price continues to decline. The trend intensity is 0. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [34][36]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price hits a new low, and it is advisable to short at high prices. Polysilicon shows a weak spot market and a weak futures performance. The trend intensity of both is - 1. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [37][39]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore will oscillate weakly as downstream demand reaches a phased peak. The trend intensity is - 1. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [41][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil will oscillate downward due to the anticipation of negative feedback. The trend intensity of both is 0. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [46][49]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will oscillate at low levels as demand expectations weaken. The trend intensity of both is 0. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [51][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke will oscillate at the bottom after the second price cut is implemented, and coking coal will also oscillate at the bottom with the arrival of environmental protection supervision teams. The trend intensity of both is - 1. The report provides fundamental data and price and position information [55][58]. - **Steam Coal**: Steam coal will oscillate weakly as coal mine inventory increases. The trend intensity is 0. The report provides yesterday's internal market situation, fundamental information, and position information [59][61]. Agricultural Products - **Logs**: Logs will oscillate weakly. The trend intensity is - 1. The report provides fundamental data and macro and industry news [62][66]. - **P - Xylene and PTA**: Go long on PX and short on PTA. The report also mentions the trading strategy for MEG [2][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Positive" for 2024 [4] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see profit improvement in 2024, with the characteristic of "resource supremacy" becoming more pronounced. Supply from the mining sector remains rigid, while companies are cautious with capital expenditures amid increasing macroeconomic volatility and export policy restrictions from various countries, leading to enhanced supply constraints. The demand side shows a fragmented demand landscape under the backdrop of de-globalization, with re-industrialization in Europe and the US and economic growth in emerging markets being the main demand drivers. Revenue and net profit for the non-ferrous sector are projected to grow slightly, indicating a gradual improvement in industry prosperity. Resource-based companies, particularly in copper, gold, aluminum, tin, and tungsten, are expected to perform better, with a growing focus on resource scarcity and strategic importance [19][22][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector is projected to achieve a revenue of CNY 3.47 trillion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.86%, and a net profit of CNY 138.41 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.77% [22][26]. 2. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that industrial metals experienced significant price fluctuations due to US trade tariffs in early April, but prices have since rebounded as negotiations exceeded market expectations. Small metals continue to perform well, with tungsten prices reaching new highs amid strengthened domestic export controls [20][21]. 3. Policy Changes - Domestic measures to tighten resource export controls have been noted, alongside international collaborations for mineral investment and development. Key actions include China's crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling, Australia's commitment to establishing strategic reserves for critical minerals, and various agreements between countries to enhance mining cooperation [20][21]. 4. Company Performance - Chinese listed copper companies have shown a significant increase in resource and reserve volumes, with a 27% year-on-year increase in resource volume and a 25% increase in reserves. Notable companies like Zijin Mining and Minmetals Resources have made substantial acquisitions and exploration investments to secure resource safety [22][28][32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors, leading to different trends in different varieties. For example, the stock index shows a pattern of stable lower - support and high upper - breakthrough pressure; the bond market is in a narrow - range shock waiting for fundamental guidance; precious metals are affected by multiple factors and show a shock or upward - potential trend; and different industrial and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506: The index has stable lower support and high upper - breakthrough pressure. TMT is warming up, and A - shares are in a shrinking shock. It is recommended to sell put options near the previous low support level to earn the premium [2]. Bond Futures - T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506: In the short - term information window period, the bond futures are in a narrow - range shock. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital - market dynamics [2]. Precious Metals - AU2508, AG2508: Gold may break through $3400 (795 yuan) or maintain a shock trend. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and the resistance near the previous high of $33.5 (8300 yuan) is strengthened [2]. Shipping Index - EC2508 (European Line): Airlines are reducing prices, and the main contract is falling. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [2]. Steel - RB2510: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke and long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal arbitrage operations [2]. Iron Ore - I2509: It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 700 - 745 [2]. Coke - J2509: Mainstream steel mills are initiating the second round of coke price cuts, which are expected to be implemented on the 28th. Coke prices may still be cut. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke operations [2]. Coking Coal - JM2509: The market auction is cold, coal mine production and inventory are at high levels, and prices are still likely to fall. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal operations [2]. Silicon Iron - SF507: Supply - demand is marginally improving, and costs are moving down. It is in a range - bound shock, with the range referring to 5500 - 5800. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels, with the upper pressure referring to around 5900 [2]. Copper - CU2507: There are sudden disturbances in the copper mine supply. Pay attention to the sustainability of the "strong reality". The main contract pays attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Zinc - ZN2507: Social inventory is decreasing again, and the fundamentals change little. The market is in a shock [2]. Nickel - NI2506: The market is in a narrow - range shock, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to 122000 - 128000 [2]. Stainless Steel - SS2507: The main contract refers to 12600 - 13200. It is recommended to try shorting lightly in the range of 265000 - 270000 [2]. Tin - SN2506: In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy. In the short - term, observe opportunities for shorting on rebounds [2]. Crude Oil - SC2508: The macro - situation and supply - increase expectations are in a stalemate. The market is in a shock, waiting for the implementation of OPEC's production - increase policy. The WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. It is recommended to pay attention to the INE monthly - spread rebound opportunities [2]. Urea - UR2509: Agricultural demand needs time, and under high - supply pressure, the market is looking for a bottom in a shock. The main - contract fluctuation is adjusted to around [1800, 1900] [2]. PX - PX2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PX is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600, try a light - position reverse - spread operation for PX9 - 1, and shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - TA2509: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and oil - price support is limited. PTA is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the support near 4600 and treat TA9 - 1 as a reverse - spread operation [2]. Short - Fiber - PF2507: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the raw materials. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA, and it is mainly to expand the processing fee on the PF disk at a low level [2]. Bottle Chip - PR2507: Supply and demand are both increasing, and short - term contradictions are not prominent. The absolute price follows the cost. The unilateral operation is the same as PTA. The main - contract processing fee on the PR disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 550 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand at the lower edge of the range [2]. Ethanol - EG2509: Supply and demand are both decreasing, but MEG has a large destocking in the near - month. Pay attention to the positive - spread opportunity. Unilaterally wait and see, and go for a positive - spread operation for EG9 - 1 when the price is low [2]. Styrene - EB2507: Inventory has stopped decreasing and started to accumulate, and supply - demand is under pressure. The market is in a weak shock. It is medium - term bearish, with a resistance of 7800 for the near - month. Pay attention to the opportunity for the EB - BZ spread to widen [2]. Caustic Soda - 60952HB: The increase in the alumina purchase price drives the near - month price. Pay attention to the warehouse receipts. Unilaterally wait and see, and maintain a positive - spread operation for the near - month [2]. PVC - V2509: The medium - to - long - term contradiction still exists, and the near - end spot is weak. The market has turned down again. It is recommended to short on the medium - to - long - term on rallies, with the resistance level for 09 at around 5100 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR2507: The supply - demand pattern of loose remains unchanged, and BR has fallen sharply. Hold short positions [2]. LLDPE - L2509: The spot price follows the disk decline, and the transaction has deteriorated significantly. The market is in a shock [2]. PP - PP2509: Supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the subsequent marginal - device restart situation. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Methanol - MA2509: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and the port and inland markets are weakening. The market is in a weak shock [2]. Grains and Oils - M2509: The pressure near 2950 is increasing [2]. - RM509: CBOT is closed, and the market is in a shock [2]. - LH2509: At the end of the month, the volume is shrinking, and downstream Dragon Boat Festival stocking is increasing. The futures and spot prices are rebounding slightly. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. - C2507: The market fluctuates with the shipment rhythm. It fluctuates around 2320 in the short - term [2]. - P2509/Y25: Palm oil may run around 8000 [2]. - SR2509: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Unilaterally wait and see or short on rebounds [2]. - CF2509: The downstream market remains weak. Short on rebounds [2]. - JD2507: The spot price may weaken again. Short on rebounds for the 07 contract [2]. - AP2510: The trading is market - based. The main contract runs around 7500 [2]. - CJ2509: The fundamentals change little, and red dates continue to fluctuate. It runs around 9000 in the short - term [2]. - PK2510: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. Special Commodities - SA2509: There are many maintenance expectations from May to June. Consider positive - spread participation in the monthly spread. Short on rebounds and go for a positive - spread operation for the 7 - 9 monthly spread [2]. - FG2509: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Pay attention to the support at the 1000 - point level [2]. - RU2509: The fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is falling. Hold the previous short positions and pay attention to the performance at the 14000 - line [2]. - Si2507: The industrial - silicon futures are increasing positions and falling under the expectation of supply increase. The fundamentals are still bearish [2]. New - Energy Commodities - PS2507: The raw - material price is falling, and the supply is expected to increase. The polysilicon futures are increasing positions and falling, and the price is still under pressure [2]. - LC2507: The market has rebounded, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract runs in the range of 58,000 - 63,000 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the EU plans to accelerate tariff negotiations with the US after the US threatens to impose tariffs on the EU, reducing global risk aversion. The US dollar index rebounds in the short - term, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, although domestic demand in April slowed down and was lower than expected, industrial production and exports far exceeded expectations, and the economic growth remained stable. The central bank's interest - rate cut and the reduced risk of tariff escalation between the US and the EU help boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index oscillates in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; among commodity sectors, black metals oscillate at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, automobiles, and banks, the domestic stock market continued to decline slightly. The short - term risk appetite may be boosted, but there is no obvious macro - drive for trading currently. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [2][3]. - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and trade policy disturbances increase, and the short - term support for gold is strengthened. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the US economy and the marginal weakening of US debt credit will support the upward movement of the valuation center of precious metals [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market is in a dilemma, with weakening real demand and increasing supply. It is advisable to treat the short - term steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The price decline of iron ore has widened. Although the iron - water output has decreased, there are differences in the market's view of its decline path. The supply may increase in the second quarter, and it is advisable to take a bearish view in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have decreased. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the downstream procurement sentiment is not good. The market will oscillate in the short term [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump delays imposing a 50% tariff on the EU, boosting market sentiment. The short - term oil price may fluctuate significantly due to event - based factors and macro - impacts [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price oscillates weakly following crude oil. The demand is average, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [8]. - **PX**: The polyester sector has corrected, and PX has declined slightly. It maintains a strong oscillation in the short term but may decline slightly later [8]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up rate has decreased, and PTA is affected by negative feedback from the downstream. The de - stocking rate will slow down, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The de - stocking is mainly due to the decrease in start - up, and the price will oscillate [10]. - **Short - fiber**: It maintains a high - level and weak - oscillation pattern and will continue to oscillate in the short term [11]. - **Methanol**: The price in the Taicang market has declined, and the basis has strengthened. The price will likely remain stagnant in the short term but may decline in the long - term [11]. - **PP**: The domestic PP market has declined. The downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to decline under pressure [12]. - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has decreased. The short - term demand has been slightly repaired, but the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the price may decline in the long - term [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper concentrate TC continues to decline, and the supply is increasing. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum inventory is decreasing significantly, but the demand growth rate cannot be sustained. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in the short term and wait for a better short - selling point [14]. - **Tin**: The supply is gradually recovering, but there is still a raw - material gap in China. The demand is about to enter the off - season, and the market is under pressure [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: There is no weather premium for US soybeans currently. The market is in a range - bound situation without a continuous upward drive [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: The basis of soybean meal is weakening, and it lacks a stable upward support [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the price is supported by the low - level inventory of rapeseeds and the strong price - support intention of oil mills [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil in Southeast Asia is in the production - increasing cycle, and the domestic market generally fluctuates with the BMD market but has stronger support when falling [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs has decreased slightly before the Dragon Boat Festival, but the price is still under pressure in the future. The futures may rise in June due to the high basis [19]. - **Corn**: With the harvest of new - season wheat, the corn price is under pressure, and there is no upward drive currently [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in shipping rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on various commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, while highlighting the ongoing economic adjustments and market expectations [1][2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are currently in a consolidation phase, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and economic data reflecting potential stagflation [2][4][16]. - President Trump's decision to extend the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU has alleviated some market concerns, leading to temporary price increases in gold [2][4][16]. - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax reform bill that is expected to increase federal debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about U.S. debt levels [2][4][16]. Group 2: Copper - Domestic demand for copper remains stable, driven by increased investments in power grids and growth in home appliance production [17]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations due to low processing fees and copper prices, with attention on U.S. tariff negotiations and currency exchange rates [17]. Group 3: Shipping Industry - The shipping index for Europe has shown a decline, with the latest SCFIS European line index at 1247.05 points, down 1.4% [30]. - The shipping market is optimistic about potential price increases in June, with average container prices rising to around $2400, reflecting a $600-$700 increase from the end of May [30]. - The overall shipping capacity is expected to remain stable, but the market anticipates a cooling period after initial price increases, leading to a more balanced outlook [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the recent announcement by Trump to impose tariffs on the EU has increased global economic uncertainty, which supports a bullish trend in gold prices. Central banks continue to purchase gold, indicating a sustained long-term bullish outlook [3]. - For copper and aluminum, while there is a short-term weakness in downstream operations, the long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, justifying a "Recommended" rating for both industries [11]. - Tin prices are expected to stabilize at a high level, with corporate profits projected to gradually increase, leading to a "Recommended" rating for the tin industry [11]. - Antimony prices are currently weak due to short-term demand decline, but long-term supply constraints are expected to support prices, hence a "Recommended" rating is maintained [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) showed a monthly performance increase of 3.1%, a quarterly increase of 4.3%, and a yearly increase of 3.5%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1]. Macroeconomic Indicators - China's real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3%, while the industrial added value in April grew by 6.1%, exceeding expectations [4][28]. - The U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 52.3, significantly above the expected 49.9 [3][28]. Gold Market Data - The London gold price increased to $3342.65 per ounce, a rise of 3.48% from the previous week [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 29.66 million ounces, an increase of 120,000 ounces [32]. Copper Market Data - LME copper closed at $9565 per ton, up by $52 from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 77,790 yuan per ton, down by 880 yuan [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 139,900 tons, a decrease of 790 tons from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market Data - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices rose to 20,400 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 56.0%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin and Antimony Market Data - Domestic refined tin prices were reported at 265,070 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 370 yuan [43]. - Antimony ingot prices were reported at 220,500 yuan per ton, down by 2,000 yuan [43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices are on an upward trend, driven by resilient inflation and trade tensions, particularly with the potential for increased tariffs on Europe [4] - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to fluctuating tariffs, with a price center around $9,300 [5] - Aluminum prices are forecasted to rise due to strong domestic demand and inventory depletion [5] - Tungsten prices are anticipated to continue rising, supported by better-than-expected export recovery [6] - Rare earth prices are under pressure due to increased imports, but long-term investment opportunities are suggested as supply constraints may tighten [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4695.15, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [1] Price Movements - LME copper increased by 0.62%, while aluminum decreased by 0.60%. Gold prices on COMEX rose by 1.98% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 14,348 tons, and aluminum inventory decreased by 11,426 tons [26]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights structural opportunities in the U.S. technology policy, particularly in the context of restrictions on technology exports to China, which has led to strong performance in domestic substitution concepts such as semiconductor equipment and materials, and chip design [2] - The REITs market in China has shown a trend of upward fluctuation, with the weighted REITs index closing at 139.74 and a weekly return of 1.36%, outperforming other major asset classes [3] - The convertible bond market experienced slight adjustments, with the index showing a weekly change of -0.1%, while the year-to-date performance remains positive at +3.3% [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The rapid development of AI is significantly increasing power demand, with projections indicating that the market size for NVIDIA's AI server AC-DC power supply could reach between 35.1 billion to 45.5 billion yuan by 2025 [8] - The machinery industry has seen a notable increase in exports to North America, with electric tools and lawn mowers showing year-on-year growth of 9% and 10% respectively, despite tariff impacts [9] - The petrochemical sector is expected to benefit from low valuations and high dividends, with recommendations for companies like China Petroleum and China Petrochemical [10] Group 3: Company Analysis - Alibaba Pictures is focusing on its core business of ticketing and IP derivatives, with revised profit forecasts for FY26 and FY27 indicating a net profit of 880 million and 1.11 billion yuan respectively [13] - Nobon Co., a leader in spunlace non-woven fabrics, is expected to see strong performance due to its advanced production lines and brand advantages, with a focus on high-margin clients [14] - XPeng Motors reported Q1 2025 results in line with expectations, with anticipated improvements in average selling price and gross margin, maintaining a "buy" rating [15]