智通财经APP获悉，2月9日，中国期货业协会发布2026年1月全国期货市场交易情况简报。1月全国期货 市场成交量为912.49百万手；同比增长65.09%。上期所月成交量为307.67百万手，占全国市场的 33.72%，同比增长102.40%。上期能源月成交量为12.89百万手，占全国市场的1.41%，同比增长 8.18%。郑商所月成交量为287.79百万手，占全国市场的31.54%，同比增长53.56%。中金所月成交量为 30.05百万手，占全国市场的3.29%，同比增长31.30%。大商所月成交量为234.35百万手，占全国市场的 25.68%，同比增长43.61%。广期所月成交量为39.74百万手，占全国市场的4.35%，同比增长159.76%。 1月全国期货市场成交额为100.26万亿元；同比增长105.14%。上期所月成交额为51.96万亿元,占全国市 场的51.82%，同比增长278.92%。上期能源月成交额为2.07万亿元,占全国市场的2.07%，同比下降 20.31%。郑商所月成交额为7.75万亿元,占全国市场的7.73%，同比增长14.73%。中金所月成交额为26.35 万亿元,占全国市场的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: Expected to oscillate within the range of 2710 - 2770. Influenced by the US - China trade deal, South American weather, and domestic demand, it's likely to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4340 - 4440. Affected by factors such as US - China trade, South American weather, and domestic supply - demand, it will likely stay in a short - term oscillatory state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean meal futures return to an oscillatory state, while the spot price remains relatively stable, with the spot premium staying at a relatively high level [23]. - The soybean crushing volume in oil mills returns to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increases year - on - year [25][50]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills continue to decline, indicating a weakening of stocking demand [27][52]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrows, and the price difference of the 2605 contract fluctuates slightly [29]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean futures are oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - China's import of soybeans in the first quarter continues to decline. The soybean inventory in oil mills remains relatively high in January. With normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to a short - term oscillatory pattern [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking. The good demand for soybean meal in January supports its price. Influenced by US soybeans and the recovery of demand, it maintains an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The relatively high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, combined with the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement, keeps soybean meal in a short - term oscillatory state, awaiting clear US soybean yields and further progress in the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal** - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total volume of imported soybeans in January remains relatively high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [14]. - **Soybeans** - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans leads to an increase in China's purchases; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of beans [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal** - **Basis**: The spot price is 3030 (in East China), and the basis is 295, indicating a premium over futures [9]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory in oil mills is 94.72 million tons, a 9.27% decrease from last week and a 70.15% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans** - **Basis**: The spot price is 4400, and the basis is 22, a neutral premium over futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The soybean inventory in oil mills is 687.33 million tons, a 3.62% decrease from last week and a 31.81% increase from the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The short positions of the main force decrease, and funds flow out, indicating a bearish sentiment [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main force switches from long to short, and funds flow out, showing a bearish outlook [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From January 29 to February 6, data on the transaction average price, trading volume, and price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Summary**: From January 30 to February 6, prices of soybean futures (including different contracts), soybean meal futures, and soybean and soybean meal spot prices are presented [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From January 28 to February 6, data on the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including different varieties) and soybean meal are given [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand from 2016 to 2025 are provided, including harvest area, inventory, output, and consumption [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions**: Information on the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026 is presented [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Data on planting area, yield per unit, output, and other aspects of US soybeans from June 2025 to January 2026 are provided, along with data on Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. - **US Soybean Export Inspection and Imported Soybean Arrival Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreases month - on - month but increases year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans is at a low level at the beginning of the year and decreases year - on - year recently [45][47]. - **Livestock - Related Data**: The inventory of live pigs increases slightly year - on - year, while the inventory of sows decreases year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs fluctuates slightly, and the price of piglets rebounds slightly. The proportion of large pigs in China increases, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs continues to rise. The domestic pig - raising profit shows a slight profit, and the pig - grain ratio and feed - meat ratio decline to a low level [56][58][60][62][64].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and suggest buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short-term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper, aluminum, and nickel are advised to wait and see; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][11] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash are advised to wait and see; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][25] - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs are in short-term supply-demand games, and off-season contracts suggest shorting on rallies; eggs are overvalued, and post-festival contracts can be hedged on rallies; corn is cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal's M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term; oils are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, suggesting buying on dips and being cautious about risks before the holiday [1][27] Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures varieties from multiple aspects such as macro factors, supply and demand fundamentals, and cost factors. It provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the characteristics and trends of each variety, including trading strategies and points to watch [1][6]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: Due to overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances, they are expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [6] - Government bonds: There is no obvious major negative in the bond market, but there is no further impetus to push interest rates down. They are expected to trade sideways [6] Black building materials - Double coking: The coal market shows short-term fluctuations, and the sustainability of the price increase is insufficient. It is recommended for short-term trading [7][8] - Rebar: The futures price is undervalued statically, and the cost support is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and light positions are recommended before the holiday [8] - Glass: Affected by production line shutdowns and demand, the price is expected to trade sideways and is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: Affected by macro factors, it is expected to trade at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Aluminum: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is under pressure. It is recommended to increase the observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - Nickel: Affected by the Indonesian quota reduction, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - Tin: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is rigid. It is expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [15] - Gold and silver: Affected by the Fed's expected policy change, the mid-term price center moves up. They are expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [16] - Lithium carbonate: Affected by supply and demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [17][19] - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - Styrene: The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [20][21] - Rubber: The supply is tightened, and the demand is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [22] - Methanol: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [23] - Polyolefins: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. They are expected to trade weakly sideways [23][24] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost is rising. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The global supply and demand are improving, but the internal and external price difference suppresses the price. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [25] - Apples and jujubes: The market is stable, and they are expected to trade sideways [25][27] Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: The short-term supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies for off-season contracts [27] - Eggs: The supply pressure is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hedge post-festival contracts on rallies [29] - Corn: The short-term market is balanced, and the medium to long-term supply and demand are loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies [30] - Soybean meal: The M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 3030 [31] - Oils: They are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to risks before the holiday [31][36]

2026/2/9 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货贵金属周报 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 2025-01-02 2025-02-02 2025-03-02 2025-04-02 2025-05-02 2025-06-02 2025-07-02 2025-08-02 2025-09-02 2025-10-02 2025-11-02 2025-12-02 2026-01-02 2026-02-02 美联储新一任主席沃什就任后的鹰派预期升温，美国初 请失业金人数激增，黄金价格反弹。截至上周五，美黄 金报收4989美元/盎司，周内上涨1.7%，关注上方压力 位5050，下方支撑位4750。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 37.000 ...

2月9日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，碳酸锂期货盘中高位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约 报136780.0元/吨，涨幅3.39%。 现货方面，2月9日，优质碳酸锂市场价格区间在135600-139200元/吨，行情较上一个工作日上调3950 元，电池级碳酸锂市场价格区间在134200-139200元/吨，行情较上一个工作日上调4200元，工业级碳酸 锂市场价格区间在131500-136500元/吨，行情较上一个工作日上调4500元。 后市来看，东海期货表示，社会库存持续去库，强现实维持，但春节前备货需求有较大程度释放，对节 前行情支撑减弱。预计碳酸锂震荡调整，耐心等待企稳后逢低布局，或期权双卖策略。 供应方面，银河期货指出，今年2月份，锂盐厂开始检修，产量有所下滑。截至2月6日当周，碳酸锂周 度产量为20744吨，环比减少825吨；碳酸锂周度库存为105463吨，环比去库2019吨。 需求方面，南华期货（603093）分析称，下游材料厂报价整体下跌，其中磷酸铁锂系报价变 动-11.97%，三元材料系报价变动-3.69%，六氟磷酸锂报价变动-11.58%，电解液报价变动-5.84%。终端 电芯市场报价+0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic futures market for the chemical sector, particularly urea, is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the main contract rising by 1.18% to 1797.00 yuan/ton as of February 9 [1] Group 2 - In the spot market, as of February 9, Shandong Ruixing's small granular urea price has been raised to 1780 yuan/ton, with actual transactions subject to negotiation; Shandong Alliance's small granular urea is quoted between 1770-1800 yuan/ton, with actual transactions varying by region [2] - On the supply side, East China Futures analysis indicates that daily production has increased, leading to sustained pressure, while overall demand support is insufficient due to reduced compound fertilizer operations and weak expectations, alongside a lackluster export market and limited port demand [2] - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of urea in Chinese enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous week, representing a 2.79% decline; the port sample inventory was 165,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons, marking a 14.58% rise [2] - Looking ahead, Wukuang Futures believes that the current price gap between domestic and international markets has opened an import window, combined with expectations of improved operations at the end of January, indicating that bearish expectations for urea's fundamentals are approaching, suggesting a strategy of shorting on rallies [2]

Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Strategy Weekly Report" dated February 9, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the past two months, there has been a seesaw effect between non - ferrous metals and anti - involution varieties. When non - ferrous metals undergo technical adjustments, anti - involution varieties rebound. After the profit - making effect of non - ferrous metals weakens, other theme markets need to absorb funds from non - ferrous and precious metals. Driven by national policies, low - valuation varieties may be a key focus after the Spring Festival. The national policy is determined to rectify involution - style competition, and anti - involution is likely to be a theme in 2026 [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary - The commodity market in the past week was centered around the deep adjustment of non - ferrous and precious metals. In a bear market, negative factors are magnified, and positive factors are ignored. Near the Spring Festival, market volatility may decrease [4] - Gold and silver's recent sharp decline is more of a technical adjustment due to large previous gains and a large number of profit - taking positions [4] - The overall valuation of agricultural products, especially oilseeds and oils, is low. The price of US soybeans is below the cost line, with limited downside. The demand on the feed side lacks strong support, and oils are slightly stronger than soybean meal [4] - The petrochemical sector in 2026 will operate within the anti - involution framework. Although the fundamentals are still poor, the worst is over, and the price downside is limited. The valuation of chemical products has reached the limit [4] - Steel in the black sector is one of the key anti - involution varieties. The downside of coal prices is also limited, and supply disturbances may cause coking coal to fluctuate widely. Low - valuation varieties may absorb funds from the non - ferrous sector, and attention should be paid to the progress of anti - involution policies [4] Market Data Tables - The report provides data on the price, inventory, valuation, position, position change, and annualized basis of various commodities, including black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural products [8][10][11] - It also shows the total amount and percentage of capital flow in different sectors such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed - breeding, oilseeds and oils, and soft commodities [8] Market Data Charts - The report includes charts on the capital flow of black, olefin, polyester, other chemical, energy, oilseed and oil, non - ferrous, and agricultural products [12][14][16][20][22][27][29]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the MPOB report for Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, with inventory data exceeding expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January shows a 29% month - on - month increase, and as it enters the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2][3][4]. - The prices of oils and fats are in a range - bound consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The current main logic is that the global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. The main risk point is the El Niño weather [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - On January 9, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1020000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7% [2]. - The inventory of palm oil ports on January 9 was 736000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46% [3]. - The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on January 9 was 250000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44% [4]. - There are also contents about soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic oil and fat inventory, but specific data are not detailed in the current content [8][10][21][23]. Demand - There are contents about the apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal, but specific data are not detailed in the current content [12][14]. Price Expectations - The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300 [2]. - The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [3]. - The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4]. Other Factors - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected output of relevant oils and fats is high [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is the right time to adopt the long straddle strategy for CSI 300 index options as the PCR of open interest and the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 300 index options have both fallen to relatively low historical quantile levels. Although the short - term stock market risk appetite has been negatively disturbed, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the expectation of consumption recovery is rising, and the CSI 300 index has the potential for "catch - up growth" [1][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of CSI 300 Index - Since the beginning of the year, the CSI 300 index has shown a trend of rising first and then falling, with a maximum of 4836.95 points, presenting a range - bound market. Compared with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, the CSI 300 index has been relatively stable. However, since January 26, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes have significantly corrected, while the CSI 300 index has remained relatively robust, indicating a possible shift in market style [2] 3.2 Analysis from the Perspective of Open Interest PCR - As of February 4, the open interest PCR of CSI 300 index options was 63.47%, at the 43.8% quantile level since 2023, and has been continuously declining since January 8. This indicates that investors' risk preference has weakened marginally, and the current low level implies a possibility of bottom - out recovery [3] 3.3 Analysis from the Perspective of Implied Volatility - As of February 4, the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 14.79%, at the 39.9% quantile level since 2023, and has been continuously decreasing since January 7. The current low level is more favorable for option buyers [4] 3.4 Analysis of the Direction of the Underlying Index 3.4.1 Macro - fundamental Aspect - The problem of insufficient effective demand still exists. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the contraction range. The new order index declined more than the production index, indicating that the demand side is the main drag. The price scissors - gap dilemma has been alleviated to some extent, and there is an obvious differentiation in the economic prosperity among enterprises [9] 3.4.2 Policy Aspect - Policy needs to stabilize domestic demand at the overall level and support technology and consumption at the structural level. Stabilizing domestic demand is a short - term measure to stabilize growth, while structural support for technology and consumption aims at long - term kinetic energy transformation [12] 3.4.3 Market Style and Capital Flow - Since the beginning of the year, stocks related to strategic emerging industries and future industries mentioned in the "15th Five - Year Plan" have been favored by funds, and the valuations of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes have significantly increased. However, with the regulatory signal of de - leveraging and risk control, the market driven by valuation has ended. As the Spring Festival approaches, the CSI 300 index has the potential for "catch - up growth" due to consumption recovery expectations. Since mid - January, the inflow of margin trading funds into the stock market has slowed down [13][14] 3.4.4 External Factors - The news about the next Fed chairman at the end of January and early February has caused market volatility, and the stock market has been under pressure. However, this is mainly a short - term disturbance, and the stock market logic will eventually return to its fundamentals [17] 3.5 Conclusion and Operation Ideas - It is advisable to choose the long straddle strategy to layout the Spring Festival market. This strategy involves buying the same number of call and put options with the same expiration month and strike price. It can profit whether the market breaks upward as expected or experiences an unexpected downward risk, and can control the risk exposure [18]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 张驰宁 Z0020302 本周开盘，A股市场主要指数显著上扬，成功收复4100点整数关口。股指期货市场同样表现强劲，截至 今日早盘10时50分，四大股指期货主力合约涨幅均超过1%，呈现普涨格局。 近期逻辑： 外围市场的回暖为A股提供了积极的开局环境，尤其是美股道指历史性突破5万点大关，显著提振了全 球市场的风险偏好。与此同时，市场内部也显现出一些积极迹象，例如部分宽基ETF在盘初出现资金流 入，这对稳定市场情绪起到了关键作用。 除了外部因素，地缘政治层面的积极信号也为市场注入了信心。近期中美高层对话释放出关系缓和的明 确信号，双方均表现出以务实合作推动经济发展的共同意愿。大国关系的这一积极动向，有助于缓解外 部不确定性，改善全球经济增长预期，从而对A股市场情绪产生带动。 此外，随着春节临近，市场对传统的"红包行情"有所期待，近十年节前上涨概率较高的统计规律，也一 定程度上增强了投资者的乐观情绪。 综合来看，今天的反弹更像是市场情绪在经历前期调整后的一次集中修复。 分析师观点： 今日，中证1000股指期货主力合约呈现技术性 ...