1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 213,000, lower than the expected 215,000 and the previous value of 214,000, indicating a stable labor market. The annualized total number of new housing starts in the US in January was 1.487 million, higher than the expected 1.348 million and the previous value of 1.387 million, indicating the resilience of the US real - estate market. Due to the recent data resilience and geopolitical instability in the US, the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has further decreased, with the probability of a 25BP interest - rate cut starting in June as low as 19.5% [1] - On the domestic market, on Thursday, the broader market opened lower and fluctuated downward, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96%. The market showed a volatile adjustment trend. Geopolitical risks have increased oil prices, which has put pressure on market risk appetite. The A - share market has seen an increase in oil and gas and their substitute sectors such as coal and electricity. The extension of the US - Iran conflict has led to a stagflation - like trend in the market. In the short term, the broader market faces significant pressure at the 4,200 - point level, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Information - Trump stated that the US is the top oil - producing country and makes a lot of money when oil prices rise, and it is important to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons [4] - The market has reduced its bets on the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year to 20 basis points, less than one cut. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates immediately [4] - Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba issued a statement saying that Iran will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new fronts may be opened if necessary [4] - The Israeli military claimed to have carried out large - scale attacks on the infrastructure in the Iranian capital, and a US tanker crashed in Iraq [4] - Iranian diplomatic officials said that some countries' ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If coordinated with the Iranian navy, many ships can still pass. There are no mines laid. Media reported that two Indian oil tankers were approved to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iranian sources denied it. There is also market news that Iran attacked a US oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz [4] - The Trump administration plans to suspend the Jones Act to stabilize oil prices [5] - The central bank held a symposium of economic and financial experts, stating that in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [5] - Trump said that he will launch new trade investigations against trading partners including China. China responded that tariff and trade wars are not in the interests of any party, and both sides should negotiate and resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [5] - Minister of Justice He Rong said that this year, the government will focus on solving "involution - style" competition through legislation and will accelerate research on legislation in fields such as artificial intelligence [5] - The National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center issued a risk warning for the application of OpenClaw in the industrial field [6] 3.2 Futures Market Tracking - The report presents the performance, trading volume, open interest, and other data of futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. For example, the Shanghai 50 index closed at 2,972, down 0.46%. For the Shanghai 50 futures contract IIH2603, the closing price was 2,966.4, down 0.58% [8] - It also shows the trading volume, trading volume changes, trading amount, trading amount changes, open interest, open interest changes, weekly position increases, net positions, etc. of various futures contracts [9] 3.3 Spot Market Tracking - The report shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading amounts, and other data of various spot market indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. For instance, the Wind All - A Index was at 6,814, down 0.53%. The Shanghai Composite Index was at 4,129, down 0.10% [33] - It analyzes the impact of market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, including daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions [34][35][36] 3.4 Liquidity Tracking - The report includes the central bank's open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels, presenting the trends of money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection, as well as the levels of different - term Shibor interest rates [46]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation is fluctuating repeatedly. Domestically, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress concluded, approving various reports and passing several laws. Overseas, the US will launch new trade investigations on the "excess industrial capacity" of 16 major trading partners including China, which may lead to new tariffs. Geopolitically, Iran's Supreme Leader stated that Iran will not give up revenge and will continue strategic measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - A - share market indices adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.1% to 4129.1 points and the ChiNext Index down 0.96%. Most sector indices declined, with coal, public utilities, and agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries leading the gains, while national defense and military industry, machinery and equipment, communications, and media industries leading the losses. The trading volume on that day was 2.4 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed down, with the Nasdaq down 1.78% to 22311.98 points [1]. - In the futures market, the basis of stock - index futures continued to widen, and both the trading volume and open interest of stock - index futures increased [1]. - The Middle East situation is in continuous flux. Affected by Iran's stance, international energy prices rebounded, the market seesaw effect continued, and global risk assets generally declined. Domestic indices are still operating within a range and are expected to maintain this trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to domestic policy trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][7][9] 3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on March 12, 2026: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 4129.10 (down 0.10% from the previous day), the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14374.87 (down 0.63%), the ChiNext Index was at 3317.52 (down 0.96%), the CSI 300 Index was at 4687.56 (down 0.36%), the SSE 50 Index was at 2971.56 (down 0.46%), the CSI 500 Index was at 8359.47 (down 0.52%), and the CSI 1000 Index was at 8335.91 (down 0.33%) [12] - Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][13] 3.3 Stock - Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock - index futures: For IF, the open interest was 98091 (an increase of 17279) and the trading volume was 269145 (an increase of 1940); for IH, the open interest was 42089 (an increase of 8868) and the trading volume was 107136 (an increase of 2854); for IC, the open interest was 141544 (an increase of 23976) and the trading volume was 284711 (an increase of 4294); for IM, the open interest was 187821 (an increase of 32097) and the trading volume was 375341 (an increase of 7577) [16] - Charts show the open interest, latest open - interest ratio, and foreign investors' net open interest of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5][17][20] - The basis of stock - index futures: For IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 29.16 (a decrease of 11.66), the next - month contract was - 45.56 (a decrease of 9.06), the current - quarter contract was - 96.56 (a decrease of 13.26), and the next - quarter contract was - 167.56 (a decrease of 9.66); for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was - 5.16 (a decrease of 3.62), the next - month contract was - 7.16 (a decrease of 5.22), the current - quarter contract was - 15.56 (a decrease of 7.22), and the next - quarter contract was - 52.96 (a decrease of 5.82); for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was - 58.47 (a decrease of 15.14), the next - month contract was - 103.07 (a decrease of 16.54), the current - quarter contract was - 232.27 (a decrease of 28.34), and the next - quarter contract was - 389.67 (a decrease of 24.74); for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was - 58.71 (a decrease of 8.18), the next - month contract was - 124.51 (a decrease of 5.98), the current - quarter contract was - 292.91 (a decrease of 18.58), and the next - quarter contract was - 496.71 (a decrease of 19.38) [35] - The inter - delivery spread of stock - index futures: The inter - delivery spread data of different contract combinations (such as next - month minus current - month, next - quarter minus current - month, etc.) of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided [43][45]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The shipping market shows an overall oscillating and strengthening trend today, but there are hidden risks of differentiation. The short - term market is supported by the forward freight rate announcements of leading shipping companies, with the price rising as trading volume increases. Some route capacity optimization also provides short - term price support. However, long - term supply - demand imbalance pressure cannot be ignored, as new ship deliveries and the release of hidden capacity will intensify the oversupply risk, and weak global trade demand cannot absorb the new supply. Geopolitical uncertainties and EU environmental regulations also impact the market. [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - China Export Container Freight Rates: SCFI - West America has a current value of 1489, a previous value of 1333, and a growth rate of 11.71%; SCFIS - West America has a current value of 1121, a previous value of 1045, and a growth rate of 0.93%; SCFI - East America has a current value of 2717, a previous value of 1857, and a growth rate of 4.47%; SCFI - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1452, a previous value of 1045, and a growth rate of 7.27%; CCFI has a current value of 1054, a previous value of 1420, and a growth rate of 0.97%; the comprehensive index SCFI has a current value of 1940, a previous value of 2691, and a growth rate of 2.25%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe has a current value of 1545, a previous value of 1463, and a growth rate of 5.60%; SCFI - Mediterranean has a current value of 2360, a previous value of 2305, and a growth rate of 0.39%. [1][2] Geopolitical Situation - Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei stated that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed, and all US military bases in the region should be immediately closed, or they will be attacked. [2] Market Trend - The market shows an upward trend. [3] Strategy - Adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider a 4 - 5 reverse spread. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Emphasize the tail risk of the Iran situation, which has a significant impact on the prices of crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and may drive up the prices of oil - chemical and oilseed products, while also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the Two Sessions. The US economy shows signs of slowdown, and China's economic data shows some positive trends [2] - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation of the US and Israel, and there is a risk of the US increasing troops. The tail risk of the Iran situation has risen sharply [1] - The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East and surrounding areas, disrupted the production and supply chain, and severely blocked the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. The continuous rise in oil prices has driven up oil - chemical and oilseed products and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1] - Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, stated that Iran will not give up revenge, will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and may open new fronts if necessary [1][6] Domestic Two Sessions - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan (an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year), and a general public budget expenditure scale of 30 trillion yuan for the first time (an increase of about 1.27 trillion yuan from the previous year). An ultra - long - term special treasury bond of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [2] - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure. After the Two Sessions, the stock index rebounds, especially the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [2] Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metal sector, precious metals, and oil prices are inversely correlated. Rising inflation reduces the expectation of interest rate cuts and increases the risk of recession [3] - The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Japan will release about 80 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, Germany will release 2.4 million tons of reserves, and the US will start releasing SPR next week [3][6] - The conflict has led to the largest - ever supply disruption, with a daily reduction of 8 million barrels in global oil supply this month and a more than 90% drop in the transit flow of the Strait of Hormuz [3][6] - Oil price increases have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products such as pure benzene, EB, PVC, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol, and the oilseed products in the agricultural sector are also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices [3] - The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [3] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy is the main driver of nickel price trends, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock state [1][3]. - The stainless - steel price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. Although the cost supports the price bottom, the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless - steel prices, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock state [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 136,800 yuan/ton and closed at 138,100 yuan/ton, a change of 0.59% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 491,504 (+182,325) lots, and the open interest was 212,958 (+2,115) lots [1]. - The current nickel is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy has led to expectations of future supply shortages, pushing up nickel ore prices and supporting nickel prices. Fundamentally, the supply is increasing, inventories are piling up, and demand is weak, but the overall supply - demand situation is in line with expectations [1]. Nickel Ore - In the Philippines, the shipping cost shows a differentiation. The mine tender price continues to rise, and the cost - side support is continuously strengthened. In Indonesia, the price of wet - process nickel ore is rising, and the shortage of high - grade resources is intensifying. Although new quotas are being approved, the short - term supply shortage pattern is difficult to change [2]. Spot - The refined nickel market shows a shock pattern after rising and then falling. The spot premium of each brand of refined nickel is slightly adjusted, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 53,904 (-437) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,684 (-564) tons [2]. Strategy - The current supply - demand situation is weak but in line with expectations. Policy is the main driver of nickel price trends. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a high - level shock state. The strategy is mainly interval operation, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,170 yuan/ton and closed at 14,285 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 193,031 (+42,349) lots, and the open interest was 109,003 (-4,171) lots [3][4]. - The stainless - steel price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is increasing, and the consumption after the Spring Festival is poor, with social inventories accumulating, suppressing price rebounds. Although there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, short - term demand is difficult to improve significantly [4]. Spot - Affected by the interval shock of the futures market, the spot price remains stable. Although the downstream demand has recovered, the market's acceptance of high - price goods is limited, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs, while traders actively ship goods to reduce inventory [4]. Strategy - The current price trend is mainly affected by nickel prices. The high cost supports the price bottom, but the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless - steel prices. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will maintain a high - level shock state. The strategy is neutral, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies [5].

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-03-13 上游减负缩量加剧，聚烯烃开工继续下降 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为8236元/吨（+82），PP主力合约收盘价为8303元/吨（+106），LL华北现货为 8420元/吨（+700），LL华东现货为8500元/吨（+500），PP华东现货为8100元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为184元/吨（+618）， LL华东基差为264元/吨（+418）， PP华东基差为-203元/吨（-106）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.4%（-4.5%），PP开工率为70.0%（-4.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-548.2元/吨（-28.4），PP油制生产利润为-688.2元/吨（-28.4），PDH制PP生产利 润为-1721.9元/吨（+264.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-1132.4元/吨（-1414.2），PP进口利润为-949.6元/吨（-192.9），PP出口利润为168.8美元 /吨（+327.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为26.8%（+8.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为43.4%（+3.1%），PP下游塑编开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation of different sectors on March 12, 2026, including trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors on March 12, 2026, and their changes compared to the previous trading day. The sectors include stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On March 12, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 712.862 billion yuan, a +20.01% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1557.7 billion yuan, a +0.97% change; the trading - holding ratio was 44.83% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On March 12, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 310.178 billion yuan, a +14.64% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 851.255 billion yuan, a - 0.87% change; the trading - holding ratio was 36.17% [1] IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On March 12, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 527.792 billion yuan, a +11.25% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 666.932 billion yuan, a - 0.47% change; the trading - holding ratio was 92.28%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 520.87 billion yuan, a - 9.33% change; the holding amount was 516.815 billion yuan, a - 0.65% change; the trading - holding ratio was 120.52% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate - On March 12, 2026, the trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 1559.848 billion yuan, a +31.95% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 574.611 billion yuan, a +6.04% change; the trading - holding ratio was 258.63% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On March 12, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 463.962 billion yuan, a - 2.17% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 666.724 billion yuan, a +0.93% change; the trading - holding ratio was 67.82% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On March 12, 2026, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 218.001 billion yuan, a +43.11% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 322.563 billion yuan, a +0.60% change; the trading - holding ratio was 66.47% [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Date: March 13, 2026 [1] Group 2: Futures Contracts - I05 contract: Today's closing price is 795.5, up 8.0 from the previous day; I05 - I09 spread is 29.0, unchanged from the previous day [3] - I09 contract: Today's closing price is 766.5, up 8.0 from the previous day; I09 - I01 spread is 17.0, down 1.0 from the previous day [3] - I01 contract: Today's closing price is 749.5, up 9.0 from the previous day; I01 - I05 spread is -46.0, up 1.0 from the previous day [3] Group 3: Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines (Kafeng), BRBF, Newman fines, etc., the report provides today's price, previous day's price, change, delivery cost, today's basis, previous day's basis, and basis change [7] Group 4: Basis Charts - The report presents basis charts for different types of iron ore, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, domestic ores, etc. [9][10][11] Group 5: Contract Adjustments - Newly added 4 deliverable varieties (Benxi iron concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian iron concentrate) with a brand premium of 0 starting from the I2202 contract [12] - Adjusted brand premiums for existing varieties, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest being 0 [12] - Modified quality differences and quality premiums for substitutes, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and setting allowable ranges for other elements [12] - Introduced dynamic adjustment of the premium value for the iron element index (X), with different calculation methods based on the average settlement price of the nearest delivery month contract [12] - Added 4 new deliverable brands (Taigang iron concentrate, Magang iron concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) with a brand premium of 0 [12] - The adjusted deliverable brands and premiums apply to contracts starting from I2312 [13] Group 6: Variety Spreads - The report shows the spread data between different iron ore varieties, such as PB lump - PB fines, Newman lump - Newman fines, etc., including today's value, previous day's value, and change [14] - It also presents various spread charts for different types of iron ore spreads [15][16][17][18][19][20] Group 7: Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with their positions, experience, and qualification numbers provided [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market data, option factors, and provides trading strategies for various black options, including glass, iron ore, rebar, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and manganese silicon options [3][6][16][19] Summary by Directory Glass (FG) - **Market Data**: FG605 contract closed at 1113 yuan, up 20 yuan (1.82%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 1,862,820 lots (up 638,138 lots) and an open interest of 1,042,790 lots (down 57,417 lots) [3][6] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 357,875 (up 34,889), open interest was 236,827 (down 11,842); put option volume was 110,592 (down 39,397), open interest was 164,924 (up 6,275). Volume PCR was 0.31 (down 0.16), open interest PCR was 0.7 (up 0.06) [4] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price was 1120, pressure level was 1660, support level was 1000, weighted implied volatility was 55.67% (up 4.01%), annual average implied volatility was 37.51%, HISV20 was 28.04% [5] - **Trading Strategies**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread with call options; Volatility strategy - construct a short volatility strategy by selling call and put options, e.g., S_FG2603P1020 and S_FG2603C1140 [7] Iron Ore (I) - **Market Data**: i2605 contract closed at 795.5 yuan, up 10.5 yuan (1.33%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 239,231 lots (up 46,499 lots) and an open interest of 480,735 lots (up 5,766 lots) [16][19] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 123,290 (up 52,795), open interest was 183,504 (up 8,875); put option volume was 79,192 (up 19,837), open interest was 158,979 (up 9,826). Volume PCR was 0.64 (down 0.2), open interest PCR was 0.87 (up 0.01) [17] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price was 800, pressure level was 900, support level was 700, weighted implied volatility was 30.03% (up 1.56%), annual average implied volatility was 22.73%, HISV20 was 15.25% [18] - **Trading Strategies**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread with call options, e.g., B_I2605C780 and S_I2605C830; Volatility strategy - none [20] Rebar (RB) - **Market Data**: rb2605 contract closed at 3120 yuan, up 13 yuan (0.41%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 765,830 lots (up 231,668 lots) and an open interest of 1,676,250 lots (down 46,176 lots) [29][32] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 81,838 (up 16,547), open interest was 216,470 (up 4,862); put option volume was 27,129 (up 6,475), open interest was 115,324 (up 3,187). Volume PCR was 0.33 (up 0.02), open interest PCR was 0.53 [30] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price was 3100, pressure level was 3550, support level was 3000, weighted implied volatility was 20.77% (up 0.66%), annual average implied volatility was 17.17%, HISV20 was 8.87% [31] - **Trading Strategies**: Directional strategy - none; Volatility strategy - construct a short strangle strategy by selling call and put options, dynamically adjust the position to keep the delta negative, e.g., S_RB2605P2950 and S_RB2605C3150 [33] Soda Ash (SA) - **Market Data**: SA605 contract closed at 1256 yuan, up 13 yuan (1.04%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 1,801,630 lots (up 772,469 lots) and an open interest of 989,401 lots (down 49,854 lots) [41][44] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 382,281 (up 60,063), open interest was 269,503 (down 13,700); put option volume was 108,423 (down 26,790), open interest was 101,245 (down 3,410). Volume PCR was 0.28 (down 0.14), open interest PCR was 0.38 (up 0.01) [42] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price was 1260, pressure level was 1740, support level was 1100, weighted implied volatility was 48.05% (up 2.88%), annual average implied volatility was 32.16%, HISV20 was 25.75% [43] - **Trading Strategies**: Directional strategy - none; Volatility strategy - construct a short volatility strategy, e.g., S_SA2605P1140 and S_SA2605C1300 [45] Ferrosilicon (SF) - **Market Data**: SF605 contract closed at 5922 yuan, up 42 yuan (0.71%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 117,753 lots (up 8,081 lots) and an open interest of 180,396 lots (down 11,557 lots) [54][57] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 14,835 (down 9,145), open interest was 21,445 (up 950); put option volume was 4,236 (down 8,289), open interest was 15,378 (down 362). Volume PCR was 0.29 (down 0.24), open interest PCR was 0.72 (down 0.05) [55] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price was 5900, pressure level was 6000, support level was 5500, weighted implied volatility was 28.32% (up 3.38%), annual average implied volatility was 22.44%, HISV20 was 13.98% [56] - **Trading Strategies**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread with call options; Volatility strategy - not recommended to use seller - dominated strategies (e.g., single - sell, double - sell) [58] Manganese Silicon (SM) - **Market Data**: SM605 contract closed at 6162 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.81%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 200,890 lots (up 32,712 lots) and an open interest of 366,997 lots (down 2,309 lots) [67][70] - **Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Call option volume was 39,383 (down 37,766), open interest was 63,162 (up 2,656); put option volume was 8,336 (down 19,069), open interest was 29,424 (up 759). Volume PCR was 0.21 (down 0.14), open interest PCR was 0.47 (down 0.01) [68] - **Option Factors - Pressure and Support**: The strike price was 6200, pressure level was 6500, support level was 5900, weighted implied volatility was 30.50% (up 3.05%), annual average implied volatility was 22.30%, HISV20 was 13.46% [69] - **Trading Strategies**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread with call options; Volatility strategy - due to high geopolitical risks, not recommended to use seller - dominated strategies (e.g., single - sell, double - sell) [71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the conflict, the total crude oil production of Middle Eastern Gulf countries has been cut by at least 10 million barrels per day, nearly 10% of the global demand. Although many countries are jointly releasing strategic reserve crude oil, the process is slow and difficult to change the short - term shortage situation. If shipping logistics cannot be quickly restored, the supply gap will expand. The Strait of Hormuz's navigation status is worrying, and Iran's new supreme leader has a tough stance. Crude oil will remain relatively strong in the short term. For SC2604, the operation should be long - biased in the 750 - 780 range, and wait for opportunities to try short positions at high levels in the long term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2604, the fundamentals are affected by the Middle East conflict, with production cuts. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Inventory data has both increases and decreases. The price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are both long positions with a decrease in long positions. The short - term trend is strong, with a recommended operation range for SC2604 [3] 2. Recent News - Many Asian refineries are designed to process medium - heavy sulfur - containing Gulf crude oil, and they are highly vulnerable to disruptions in the Gulf shipping channels. It's difficult to find alternative supplies, and some refineries have reduced production or postponed deliveries. The IEA warns that the Middle East war is causing the largest - scale supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, and has adjusted the 2026 global oil demand growth and supply increase forecasts. Iran's new supreme leader threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, and there are also threats and responses from the US, Israel, etc. [5] 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Strait passage is not smooth, and the Middle East situation deteriorates. Bearish factor: Trump intends to quickly end the war. The short - term focus is on geopolitical changes, and in the medium - to - long term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for reverse operations [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude have all increased, with increases of 9.22%, 9.72%, 9.72%, and 13.49% respectively [7] - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of spot crude oil such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. have also risen, with increases ranging from 8.39% to 12.64% [9] - **Inventory Data**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending March 6 decreased by 1.678 million barrels, while the EIA inventory increased by 3.824 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.117 million barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.511 million barrels as of March 12 [3] 5. Position Data - As of March 3, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds both decreased, with WTI's decreasing by 562 and Brent's decreasing by 35,358 [15][17]