Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of tariff policies has led to a divergence in the performance of U.S. stocks and bonds, with stocks recovering while bond yields continue to rise, indicating ongoing pressure on the bond market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 0.1%, recovering from a previous decline of 17% due to tariff impacts [3]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 4.484%, higher than the pre-tariff announcement average of 4.156% and close to the peak level of 4.492% in April [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts suggest that the bond market remains under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs, fiscal outlook, and Federal Reserve expectations [4]. - The recent auction of 10-year Treasuries showed signs of stability, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60, indicating healthy demand despite previous volatility [5]. Group 3: Fiscal Pressures - The U.S. Treasury is facing fiscal pressures, with warnings that extraordinary measures to maintain the debt ceiling may run out by August, potentially leading to a funding shortfall [6][7]. - The current statutory debt ceiling stands at $36.1 trillion, and analysts predict a funding shortfall could occur between August and October [7]. Group 4: Tariff and Inflation Concerns - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies continues to affect investor confidence regarding inflation and interest rate forecasts, leading to higher yield demands [8]. - The 10-year Treasury's term premium is currently at 0.69%, close to the peak of 0.84% in April, reflecting ongoing risk perceptions [8]. Group 5: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rate cuts due to concerns about tariffs potentially driving inflation higher [9][10]. - Some analysts have adjusted their expectations for rate cuts, now predicting that the Fed may not begin cutting rates until December, rather than July [10].

Core Viewpoint - The medium to long-term investment value of gold is widely recognized, but short-term pullback risks should not be overlooked [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Huatai Futures, the market's risk pricing has temporarily decreased due to Trump's easing stance on high tariffs and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, leading to a pullback in gold prices, which are currently in a volatile state [2]. - Galaxy Securities noted that gold prices increased by 29.4% in the first four months of 2025, exceeding expectations, making a pullback reasonable. A short-term adjustment of 5% to 10% is anticipated, with overall volatility expected [2]. - Future observations are needed on whether the U.S. economy will experience stagflation or recession. If stagflation occurs without Fed rate cuts, upward volatility in gold remains likely. Conversely, a recession would lead to a pullback in gold prices alongside other commodities until the Fed initiates rate cuts [2]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - Some institutions predict short-term volatility in gold prices, but the long-term outlook suggests a continued upward trend. Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices will rise to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and further to $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [3]. - The Chief Analyst of Metals and Materials at Minsheng Securities believes that the investment value of gold remains promising, with optimistic price projections over the next ten to twenty years [3].

Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions and Economic Outlook - Wall Street has pushed back its forecast for interest rate cuts to July, with a 55% probability for the first cut, compared to a previous 20% for June [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell remains resistant to preemptive rate cuts due to concerns over economic and inflation outlooks, relying more on hard data rather than soft data [3][4] - Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of July, there will be enough evidence of labor market and hard data weakness to justify rate cuts in July, September, and October, reducing the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75% [4] Group 2: Currency Movements and Dollar Dynamics - The dollar index has rebounded to around 100, recovering from a drop below 98, with a year-to-date decline nearing 10% [5] - Despite the dollar's recent strength, confidence in its sustainability is low, with institutions in Europe and Asia showing a strong inclination to diversify away from dollar assets [6] - Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar, have appreciated significantly against the dollar, with the offshore RMB also breaking the critical 200-day moving average [8][10] Group 3: Chinese Economic Policies and Currency Management - The People's Bank of China has shown a willingness to allow gradual depreciation of the RMB in response to tariff pressures, while recent dollar weakness has alleviated some of this pressure [10] - Analysts expect further fiscal and monetary stimulus from the Chinese government, with a potential reduction in policy rates and increased liquidity measures to stabilize economic growth [12][13] - The anticipated fiscal support may not be immediate, as the government assesses the impact of tariff shocks, but there is a consensus that additional measures will be necessary in the coming months [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that despite a significant rebound in the stock market since April, driven by optimistic corporate earnings and strong macroeconomic data, there is skepticism regarding the sustainability of this optimism due to ongoing trade tensions and the lack of a concrete trade agreement [1][2][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen 13% since its low of 4982 points on April 8, indicating a strong market performance, but experts warn that investors may be overly optimistic about the resolution of trade issues [1] - Analysts from BCA Research and Goldman Sachs express concerns that the market's current pricing reflects an overly favorable outlook on economic growth, with expectations of growth exceeding 1% this year, which contrasts with more cautious predictions [3] Group 2 - The articles highlight that President Trump has indicated progress in trade negotiations, yet no formal agreements have been reached, and he has emphasized the lack of urgency in signing any deals [3][4] - Trump's upcoming press conference is anticipated to announce a significant trade agreement with a major country, potentially the UK, marking the first agreement since the imposition of high tariffs on multiple countries [4] - The discussions around trade agreements involve various proposals from the U.S.'s top trading partners, with indications that a deal could be reached soon, although the specifics remain unclear [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid rebound in global stock markets is characterized as a typical bear market rally, indicating that investors will face pain regardless of market direction [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - High volatility in stock prices is primarily driven by short-term news headlines and speculation regarding the evolving U.S. tariff policies and their impact on corporate earnings and valuations [1] - The current risk-reward ratio for stock investments is deemed unfavorable, with significant uncertainty prevailing among investors regarding long-term bullish or bearish consensus [1][6] - Historical data shows that bear market rallies typically last an average of 44 days with an average gain of 14%, while the recent rebound since April 7 has seen an 18% increase [3][4] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Market participants are caught in a dilemma of either chasing a fading rally or missing out on potential gains, leading to increased difficulty in decision-making [3] - Many investors have been forced to reduce risk exposure due to unclear tariff prospects, only to be compelled to buy at higher prices later [3][6] - Retail investors have significantly increased their risk exposure, with record buying intensity observed in individual stocks and ETFs [9] Group 3: Systematic and Macro Investors - Systematic macro investors have increased their buying scale, reaching $51 billion last week, with expectations to hit $57 billion this week, although the rapid fluctuations may slow down the inflow of funds [8] - Macro investors are reducing their stock exposure despite recent market gains, indicating a divergence between stock market performance and investor sentiment [6][8]