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市场环境因子跟踪周报:关税下调之后,市场分歧仍存
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-05-14 02:05
2025 年 05 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程周报 关税下调之后,市场分歧仍存 市场环境因子跟踪周报(2025.05.09) 分析师:柏逸凡 分析师登记编码:S0890524100001 电话:021-20321081 邮箱:baiyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码:S0890522110001 电话:021-20321297 邮箱:chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 向 — 市 场 环 境 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 (2025.04.30)》2025-05-07 2、《关税问题反复,大盘延续稳健—市场 中 观 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 ( 2025.04.27 )》 2025-04-29 3、《市场进入降波阶段,风格稳定性上升 —量化数据看板跟踪周报(2025.04.20)》 2025-04-23 风 险 特 征 解 析 — 量 化 策 略 视 点 》 2024-12-17 投资要点 报告统计时间为 2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 分析师:程秉哲 静观其变,谋而后动。关税下调之后,可适度控制仓位,静观其变, ...
消费参考丨鲜奶市场价格战加剧:大量品牌“买一赠一”
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-13 23:37
Group 1: Fresh Milk Market Price War - The fresh milk market price war is intensifying, with various promotions observed in supermarkets and online platforms [1][2] - Specific examples include discounts and buy-one-get-one-free offers from major brands like Yili, Junlebao, and Mengniu [1][2] Group 2: Sales Pressure on Dairy Companies - Major dairy companies are experiencing significant sales pressure, with Yili's liquid milk revenue dropping to 75 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 12.32% [3] - Mengniu's liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 73.07 billion RMB, down 10.6% year-on-year [4] - Other companies like Guangming and Sanyuan also reported declines in liquid milk revenue, indicating a broader trend in the industry [4] Group 3: Overall Dairy Market Challenges - The entire dairy market is facing demand contraction, with a 2.7% year-on-year decline in total dairy sales in 2024 [5] - Companies are producing large quantities of industrial milk powder to cope with excess raw milk, leading to significant inventory issues and losses of 10,000 to 20,000 RMB per ton sold [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The price war in the fresh milk market shows no signs of abating, as companies continue to struggle with sales and profitability [6]
市场环境因子跟踪周报(2025.05.09):关税下调之后,市场分歧仍存-20250513
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-05-13 14:19
- The report covers the period from 2025.05.05 to 2025.05.09[10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Stock Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: Track the performance and volatility of different market styles such as small-cap vs. large-cap and growth vs. value[11] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the performance of small-cap and large-cap stocks - Measure the performance of growth and value stocks - Calculate the volatility of these styles - **Evaluation**: The market style factors showed a strong performance for small-cap and growth styles, with low volatility[11][13] 2. **Factor Name**: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: Analyze the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices and the concentration of trading volume[11] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices - Measure the proportion of trading volume of the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries - **Evaluation**: The market structure factors indicated a decrease in the dispersion of excess returns and low concentration of trading volume[11][13] 3. **Factor Name**: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: Track the market's volatility and turnover rate[12] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the market's volatility - Calculate the turnover rate - **Evaluation**: The market activity factors showed a rapid decline in both volatility and turnover rate[12][13] Commodity Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Commodity Trend Strength - **Construction Idea**: Measure the trend strength of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the trend strength for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The trend strength was strong for energy and black metals, while weak for non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals[25][28] 2. **Factor Name**: Basis Momentum - **Construction Idea**: Track the basis momentum of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the basis momentum for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products - **Evaluation**: The basis momentum remained high for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products[25][28] 3. **Factor Name**: Commodity Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measure the volatility of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the volatility for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The volatility significantly decreased from high levels across all sectors[25][28] 4. **Factor Name**: Commodity Liquidity - **Construction Idea**: Track the liquidity of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the liquidity for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The liquidity showed mixed performance across different sectors[25][28] Option Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Implied Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measure the implied volatility of options on different indices[33] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the implied volatility for options on the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices - **Evaluation**: The implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options significantly decreased, indicating a divergence in market views on small-cap stocks[33][34] Convertible Bond Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Premium - **Construction Idea**: Measure the premium of convertible bonds[35] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the premium for convertible bonds priced around 100 yuan - **Evaluation**: The premium showed a slight adjustment, with the market valuation at a moderately high level[35][37] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Market Style Factors**: - Small-cap and growth styles showed strong performance with low volatility[11][13] 2. **Market Structure Factors**: - Decrease in excess return dispersion and low trading volume concentration[11][13] 3. **Market Activity Factors**: - Rapid decline in market volatility and turnover rate[12][13] 4. **Commodity Trend Strength**: - Strong trend for energy and black metals, weak for others[25][28] 5. **Basis Momentum**: - High basis momentum for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products[25][28] 6. **Commodity Volatility**: - Significant decrease in volatility across all sectors[25][28] 7. **Commodity Liquidity**: - Mixed liquidity performance across sectors[25][28] 8. **Implied Volatility**: - Significant decrease in implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options[33][34] 9. **Convertible Bond Premium**: - Slight adjustment in premium, moderately high market valuation[35][37]
策略周报:关税窗口期应如何博弈?-20250511
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-05-11 10:16
Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of recent tariff negotiations on the A-share market, suggesting that the market sentiment has improved due to expectations of tariff easing and liquidity release from the central bank [3][10][12] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction, are expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, which is anticipated to support market stability [9][10] - The report indicates a shift in focus towards sectors such as low-volatility dividend stocks, banking, and public utilities, while also suggesting potential opportunities in technology and new consumption sectors like tourism and entertainment during market corrections [3][12] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to see further declines in yields, with a target range for ten-year government bond yields set between 1.50% and 1.55%, indicating a favorable outlook for short-term interest rate bonds [3][12] - The report notes that the A-share market's average daily trading volume has increased to 1,353.426 billion yuan, reflecting heightened market activity following the easing of tariff concerns and monetary policy adjustments [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the U.S. CPI and China's M2 growth, which could influence market dynamics in the near term [21]
【宏观策略】静观其变,谋而后动——2025年5月资产配置报告
华宝财富魔方· 2025-05-08 09:26
登记编号:S0890521120001 分析师:郝一凡 登记编号:S0890524080002 分析师:刘 芳 登记编号:S0890524100002 分析师: 蔡梦苑 | | 关税缓和信号显现,但行业关税仍存变数: | | --- | --- | | | > 美国一季度GDP萎缩,后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 | | | ◆ 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算奏缩至-0.3%,主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的抱累。后续美国经济走势 | | | 取决于关税谈判的进展(商品消费),以及减税政策的支持(私人投资)。 | | 海外宏观 | > 对等关税税率后续有望下调,行业关税仍存变数 | | | ◆ 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量,对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致医配一 | | | 即全球基准税率降至10%,中国维持约60%高位。 | | | ◆ 对华关税政策方面,特朗普表示"对中国达成协议的前景泵现得更加乐观"。然而潜在的行业关税(特别是医药、关键矿产及半 | | | 导体等敏感行业)关税仍存变致,伴随着协议谈判进程,市场波动或将延续。政策不确定性 ...
消费参考丨保龄宝:欧盟对赤藓糖醇征收反倾销税后,销售增长了
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-07 00:24
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Baolingbao has demonstrated resilience in the face of challenges, particularly benefiting from the EU's anti-dumping tax on erythritol, leading to increased sales and revenue in Europe [1] - In Q1 2025, Baolingbao's erythritol sales revenue grew approximately 123% year-on-year due to the lowest anti-dumping tax rate of 34.4% applied to its products [1] - The company's overall revenue in 2024 decreased by 4.84% to 2.402 billion yuan, primarily due to a strategic reduction in low-value feed and by-product businesses [2] Group 2 - Baolingbao's net profit for 2024 reached 1.11 yuan per share, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 105.97% [3] - The profit growth was driven by product structure adjustments, with prebiotics revenue increasing by 16.02% to 335 million yuan and dietary fiber revenue rising by 14.52% to 238 million yuan [4] - The revenue from sugar-reducing sweeteners surged by 29.73% to 516 million yuan, with a notable 41.66% increase in sales volume [4] Group 3 - The case of Baolingbao illustrates the systemic advantages of Chinese manufacturing, highlighting competitive strengths in various sectors [5] - As of May 6, Baolingbao's stock price was 9.34 yuan per share, reflecting a 1.30% increase [6] - In contrast, the Shanghai Consumer 80 Index reported a decline of 0.46% on the same day [7]
消费参考丨伯希和走向IPO:国产户外品牌的线上胜利
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-04-29 01:25
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that BERSHIHE, a domestic outdoor products company, is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, showcasing significant growth in revenue and profit [2][3]. - BERSHIHE's revenue from 2022 to 2024 is projected to grow from 379 million yuan to 1.766 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 241.27% for net profit [3]. - The company's main products are outdoor clothing, particularly jackets, with revenue from clothing products expected to increase from 305 million yuan in 2022 to 1.608 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 129.5% [3]. Group 2 - BERSHIHE has capitalized on channel advantages, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) online sales growing from 331 million yuan to 1.351 billion yuan, achieving a CAGR of 102% [5]. - The founder of BERSHIHE, Liu Zhen, highlighted the importance of content marketing through platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and Bilibili, which has significantly reduced customer acquisition costs [5]. - BERSHIHE's product-centric approach includes offering a lifetime warranty, contributing to a repurchase rate of over 20% [5]. Group 3 - The overall analysis indicates that China's complete industrial chain and channel advantages are shaping new brand possibilities, contrasting with the operational pressures faced by established brands like Nike [6][7].
消费参考丨饮料变局:包装水收缩,电解质水狂奔
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-04-24 00:15
Group 1: Beverage Market Dynamics - The beverage market is undergoing intense adjustments, with Danone reporting a 9.9% year-on-year sales growth in its China, North Asia, and Oceania region, reaching €936 million (approximately RMB 7.776 billion) in Q1 2025 [1] - Danone's water and beverage segment in the CNAO region saw a 10.2% increase in sales to €176 million (approximately RMB 1.462 billion), with the majority of revenue coming from the "Pulse" brand [1] - Eastroc Beverage's electrolyte water product "Bushi La" experienced a remarkable 261.5% year-on-year sales growth, reaching RMB 570 million in Q1 2025, with an annual target of RMB 3 billion [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The packaged water market, a key segment for major players, is contracting, with Nongfu Spring reporting a 21.3% decline in revenue to RMB 15.95 billion in 2024, reducing its market share from 47.5% in 2023 to 37.2% [3] - China Resources Beverage's revenue from packaged water also fell by 2.6% to RMB 12.124 billion in 2024, with a significant decline of approximately 8.7% in the second half of the year [3] - Other beverage categories are helping to offset losses, with Nongfu Spring's tea beverage revenue increasing by 32.3% to RMB 16.75 billion, now accounting for 39.0% of total revenue [4] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Beverage giants are increasingly focusing on multi-category development in response to market changes [5]
商务部消费促进司负责人谈2025年一季度我国消费市场情况
news flash· 2025-04-23 07:02
一是以旧换新成效明显,绿色智能产品销售快速增长。一季度,商品零售额同比增长4.6%,增速比上 年全年加快1.4个百分点。限额以上单位商品零售额增长5.8%,增速比上年全年加快3.1个百分点。其 中,通讯器材、文化办公用品、家电、家具零售额同比分别增长26.9%、21.7%、19.3%和18.1%。据汽 车流通协会数据,一季度乘用车零售量同比增长5.8%,其中新能源乘用车零售量增长36.4%,渗透率达 47.2%。3月份,部分重点监测企业智能家居产品销售额同比增长10%以上。 二是服务消费持续扩大,文娱旅游消费备受青睐。一季度,服务零售额同比增长5.0%,增速比商品零 售额快0.4个百分点。其中,餐饮收入增长4.7%,增速比1-2月加快0.4个百分点,居民人均交通通信支 出、教育文化娱乐支出均实现两位数增长。《哪吒2》等国产佳片带动观影热潮,一季度全国电影票房 244亿元,同比增长约48%,创历史新高。入境游热度不减,据国家移民管理局数据,自240小时过境免 签政策实施以来,截至3月31日,全国各口岸入境外国人同比增长40.2%,其中免签入境占比达71.3%。 三是线上消费保持较快增长,实体零售呈现回升向好态势 ...
消费参考丨耐克供应商华利集团:目前订单正常
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-04-14 23:43
21世纪经济报道记者贺泓源、实习生谭伊亭 报道 美国关税风暴对运动鞋市场影响似乎还未实际显现。 2025年4月13日晚,耐克主要制鞋供应商华利集团披露的机构调研纪要显示,该公司目前订单正常,各 工厂均正常生产,保证按期交付。"客户没有取消、减少订单的情况,公司也没有收到客户调整出货计 划的通知。"华利称。 此外,华利集团还提到,以往关税都是由品牌客户(进口商)承担。这次关税如果大幅提升,品牌客户 若全部或大部分转嫁给消费者,很可能会影响部分消费者的购买意愿。品牌客户也可能会与运动鞋制造 商讨论成本问题,但是制造商的净利润空间有限,不同盈利能力的制造商面临的压力会有差异。"公司 已经根据美国对越南的关税加征的不同情况,拟定了不同的应对方案,并与客户保持密切的沟通。"华 利称。 4月2日,美国宣布对越南进口产品征收 46%的对等关税,此后,美国称对越南生效的46%惩罚性关税已 延迟90天实施。 4月14日,华利集团报收57.13元/元,涨幅1.76%。 同日,上证消费80指数报收4690.93点,涨幅0.07%。 宏观 德国经济部:美国贸易政策的影响尚未体现在当前的经济指标中 近日,德国经济部表示,美国贸易政策的 ...