Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The supply of coking coal is relatively stable, and the overall decline in prices has narrowed after the previous drop. The total sample inventory has decreased compared to last week. Although the terminal demand is average and the raw material demand has slightly decreased, with the second round of price increase in the coke market, the short - term demand for coking coal is still supported, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - **焦炭**: The terminal performance is average, and the downstream has inventory accumulation. The daily average pig iron output has slightly declined. However, due to the existing demand from downstream steel mills, high operating loads of steel mills, low inventory of coking enterprises, and strong support from coking coal at the raw material end, the supply - demand gap of coke still exists. The second - round price increase in the spot market has been launched again, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, with no obvious fluctuations in production. Some downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and some high - price resources have low acceptance. Some coal mines may continue to adjust prices due to inventory pressure, but the overall decline has narrowed; rated as neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1260, and the basis is 81, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price; rated as bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons compared to last week; rated as bullish [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; rated as neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is long, and the long position increases; rated as bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Terminal demand is average. Some steel mills have maintenance due to profit, and pig iron production has slightly decreased. However, with the second - round price increase in the coke market, the short - term demand for coking coal is still supported, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include an increase in pig iron production and difficulty in increasing supply; bearish factors include a slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Daily Views - Coke - **Fundamentals**: The price of some coking coal has rebounded slightly. The profit of coking plants is around the break - even point, with some slightly in the red. The overall operating load has decreased steadily. Coking enterprises have high shipment enthusiasm, and the inventory is mostly at a low level; rated as neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1600, and the basis is - 76, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price; rated as bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared to last week; rated as bullish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; rated as neutral [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position increases; rated as bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Terminal performance is average, and the downstream has inventory accumulation. Some steel mills have started maintenance and production reduction, and the daily average pig iron output has slightly declined. However, considering the existing demand from downstream steel mills, high operating loads of steel mills, low inventory of coking enterprises, and strong support from coking coal at the raw material end, the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include an increase in pig iron production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Price - **Coking Coal**: The document provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on October 17, 2025, including prices at different ports for various types of coking coal [10]. - **Coke**: The document provides the price index of port metallurgical coke on October 17, 2025, including prices of different grades of metallurgical coke at different ports and different trading methods [11]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [28]. Other Indicators - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Core Viewpoint - Liupanshui is transforming its traditional coal-centric economy into a modern industrial system by maximizing resource value through "rich mineral precision mining" strategies, aiming to enhance its industrial structure and economic growth [1] Group 1: Coal Industry Development - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, Liupanshui has increased its raw coal production from 62.9 million tons at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to over 80 million tons by 2024, establishing a comprehensive "production, washing, transportation, distribution, and sales" system [1] - The city has extended its coal industry chain, leveraging its advantage of holding 88.7% of the province's coking coal reserves, achieving a coking capacity of 10.8 million tons per year, and successfully implementing three deep processing routes for crude benzene, coal tar, and coke oven gas [1] Group 2: Industrial Diversification - Liupanshui is diversifying beyond coal, forming a foundational industrial system led by energy and energy chemicals, supported by metal materials, equipment manufacturing, and building materials, with the industrial sector contributing 52.8% to the city's economic growth [1] - The city is focused on creating the "2151" industrial cluster, which includes a billion-level new comprehensive energy base, a billion-level southwest coal chemical cluster, and five hundred-billion-level industrial clusters in steel, aluminum and aluminum processing, energy mineral equipment manufacturing, specialty agriculture, and modern logistics [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "Oscillation" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings are as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [8] - Iron ore: Oscillation [9] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [10] - Coke: Oscillation [11] - Coking coal: Oscillation [12] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [14] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [15] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [16] 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the industrial side of the black building materials sector is difficult to show improvement, and the fundamentals lack upward drivers. The inventory of steel failed to decline, coal mine supply recovered, and the destocking of upstream inventory slowed down. The "anti - involution" expectation has not strengthened, and the market's expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain has increased, leading to a decline in futures prices [1][2]. - In the second half of October, both overseas macro factors and domestic key meetings are expected to improve market confidence again, which may provide phased support for the prices of sector varieties [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The fundamentals of the sector lack upward drivers after the holiday. The steel inventory accumulation is obvious, and the market sentiment is weak. However, there are still positive factors in the second half of October, such as macro - level support [1][2][6]. 3.2 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - Core logic: The spot market trading is weak, with low speculative willingness. Blast furnace profits are shrinking, iron - water production is decreasing from a high level, and electric - furnace profits are still poor. Although some electric furnaces resumed production after the holiday, the overall steel supply is still at a relatively high level. After the National Day, demand recovered to a limited extent, and high supply led to significant inventory accumulation, with the current inventory at a moderately high level [8]. - Outlook: In the short term, the steel price on the disk is under pressure. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US relations and the possibility of positive signals from the important meeting at the end of October, and the difficulty of a trend - like decline in the cost side under the high - iron - water background, the downward space of the disk is limited [8]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - Core logic: The spot market quotation decreased, and the market sentiment was weak. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. The exemption of special port dues for ships built in China eased market concerns. The sample daily average iron - water output decreased slightly, and the steel - mill profitability rate continued to decline slightly, but iron - water was still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The port inventory increased due to the significant increase in arrivals, and the steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased [8]. - Outlook: The rigid demand for iron ore is still supported, and the short - term supply is generally stable. There are still macro - level disturbances before the important meeting, but the general performance of building materials demand during the peak season and the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations limit the upward space of iron ore prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel increased this week, reaching a relatively high level in the same period. The price of finished products is under pressure, electric - furnace valley - electricity profits are negative, but the daily consumption of scrap steel increased slightly after some electric furnaces resumed production. The long - process daily consumption of scrap steel decreased due to the slight decline in iron - water production last week, and the overall daily consumption of 255 steel mills decreased. The inventory decreased slightly during the holiday as steel enterprises consumed inventory [10]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally. With the pressure on finished - product prices and poor electric - furnace profits, it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished products in the short term [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - Core logic: On the futures side, the disk followed coking coal to oscillate. On the spot side, the price at Rizhao Port increased. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is temporarily stable. The steel - mill maintenance increased, and iron - water decreased slightly but remained at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the coking enterprises accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level [11]. - Outlook: As the peak season is coming to an end, but there is no expectation of a significant decline in iron - water, the rigid demand support is good. The coking profit is under pressure, and the supply is difficult to increase significantly. The downstream restocking has weakened, but the fundamentals are healthy in the short term. The coking - coal auction price is rising, but the steel price is still weak. Under the game between coking and steel enterprises, the coke price is temporarily in a stalemate. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - Core logic: On the futures side, the strengthening of thermal coal drove the coking - coal market sentiment, and the disk oscillated. On the spot side, the prices remained stable. The supply of domestic coal mines has basically recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the supply is temporarily stable. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port has recovered to over 1200 vehicles, but the external transfer was stopped on the afternoon of October 14th and is expected to resume today. The coke production decreased slightly, and the rigid demand support still exists. The downstream coking enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand, and the upstream coal mines accumulated a small amount of inventory, but the overall inventory was still at a low level. The coking - coal auction prices showed an upward trend [11]. - Outlook: In the future, it is difficult for coal mine production to increase significantly. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port is still tight, and it will take time for imports to recover. The coke production can still remain at a high level in the short term. The contradictions in the coking - coal fundamentals are not prominent, and the positive market sentiment driven by the strong performance of thermal coal is expected to keep the price oscillating [12]. 3.2.6 Glass - Core logic: After the holiday, the spot sales and production were weak. The macro environment is neutral, and the supply side has limited changes. The rigid demand is still in the peak season, but the intermediate inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is moderately high, with limited restocking ability. The upstream is under pressure to accumulate inventory and reduce prices, and the overall period - spot price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price shows an oscillating and weakening trend after the period - spot negative feedback. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - Core logic: The domestic important meeting is approaching, and the macro environment is neutral. The daily production is 10.6 tons, and the overall production is moderately high. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand is stable and improving. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has slowed down, and the apparent demand has weakened significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is expected that the upstream will show inventory accumulation this week. The industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro changes in the future. In the long term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [14]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - Core logic: The peak season of terminal steel demand is not prosperous, and the black sector is under pressure. The manganese - silicon disk failed to rise strongly, and the futures price rose and then fell. The market is waiting for the steel procurement price. The cost of manganese ore is weakly stable, the demand is still resilient, but the production is still at a high level, and the difficulty of destocking is increasing [15]. - Outlook: In the short term, high costs, the peak - demand season, and policy expectations support the price, but the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center of manganese silicon after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the decline range of raw - material costs [15]. 3.2.9 Ferrosilicon - Core logic: The performance of terminal steel demand in the peak season is weak, and the prices of black - chain varieties are under pressure. The ferrosilicon disk rose and then fell, and the price center is still at a low level. The market is waiting for the final steel - procurement price. The supply is at a high level, and the pressure of market supply is accumulating, making it more difficult to destock in the future. The demand from steel mills is still resilient, but the magnesium - ingot price is weak [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, the peak - demand season, policy expectations, and firm costs support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [16]. 3.3 Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on October 15, 2025: The commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09% [101]. - The steel industry chain index on October 15, 2025: The index was 1960.22, with a daily decline of 0.68%, a decline of 1.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.14% in the past month, and a decline of 7.02% since the beginning of the year [102].

Core Insights - The black metal industry chain is experiencing a downward trend in steel prices due to an oversupply situation, leading to a significant contraction in steel mill profits, while upstream coal mines are benefiting from price increases [1][4][6] Industry Overview - In September, domestic coking coal prices initially decreased before rising, with the average price in Shanxi province reaching 1490 RMB/ton by September 29, an increase of 90 RMB/ton or 6.43% from the monthly low, and a year-to-date increase of 90 RMB/ton [1] - Coking coal's average price for September was around 1440 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 15 RMB/ton [1] Coking Coal and Coke Prices - Coking coal prices have shown a mixed trend, while coke prices have stabilized after a decline, with an average profit for metallurgical coke in Hebei dropping to -42 RMB/ton by September 25, a decrease of 61 RMB/ton from the previous month [2] - The overall profit margins for coking plants have been squeezed due to the contrasting price movements of coking coal and coke [2] Steel Mill Performance - Steel mills are facing reduced profit margins as steel prices decline, with average profits for steel products significantly decreasing in September [4] - The average profit for steel billets in Tangshan, Hebei, was 29.43 RMB/ton, down 64.52 RMB/ton or approximately 68.67% from the previous month [4] - Rebar averaged a loss of 72.15 RMB/ton, a decrease of 90.22 RMB/ton or 125.05% from August [4] Market Demand and Price Trends - Domestic demand for steel is weak, leading to an accumulation of inventory and a decline in steel prices, with rebar prices in Beijing dropping to 3130 RMB/ton, a decrease of 60 RMB/ton or 1.88% from the previous month [5] - Year-on-year, rebar prices have fallen by 320 RMB/ton or 9.28% [5] Future Outlook - The current strong coking coal prices are benefiting coal mines, while coking plants are operating below breakeven levels [6] - As steel inventories continue to rise, the likelihood of further declines in steel prices is high, prompting steel mills to focus on reducing raw material costs to maintain profitability [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating", and the short - term prices of various varieties are expected to be mainly in an oscillating state [6]. 2. Core View of the Report - During the long holiday, the spot market of the black building materials industry remained stable. Industry demand was restricted by poor domestic demand and frequent overseas tariffs, but the furnace material side continued to support the prices of sector varieties. In this pattern, it is expected that the prices of sector varieties will mainly oscillate. Attention should be paid to domestic meetings and overseas interest rate cuts to boost market sentiment again [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Industry Situation - During the long holiday, steel and billet prices remained stable. Iron ore swaps and spot prices rose slightly by 0.3 - 1.3%. The first round of coke price increase was implemented, while coking coal, alloy, glass, and soda ash prices remained stable. The demand performance in early October was still lackluster, and frequent overseas tariff disturbances limited the upside potential of post - holiday prices. High hot metal production supported the demand and prices of furnace materials, thus stabilizing steel costs [1]. 3.2 Specific Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - During the holiday, the inventory of steel accumulated too quickly, and the current pressure still existed. The spot market transactions were generally weak, and the prices were basically stable. The output of the five major steel products remained at a relatively high level during the holiday, but the demand shrank significantly, and the inventory accumulation was obvious. Overseas tariff policies were constantly disturbing, but the short - term impact was expected to be limited. Although the current steel inventory was at a moderately high level and the short - term disk was under pressure, there were still expectations for anti - involution policies in the 14th Five - Year Plan, the macro - environment was still warm, and the cost side had certain support, so the downside space of the disk was limited [7]. 3.2.2 Iron Ore - During the holiday, the iron ore market was stable, and the overseas market rose slightly. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, while the port arrivals increased. The demand for iron ore was supported by high hot metal production, and some steel mills had restocking plans after the holiday. The inventory pressure was not prominent. However, the general performance of the building materials peak - season demand limited the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [8][9]. 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - During the holiday, the supply and demand of scrap steel were stable, and the spot price fell slightly. After the steel enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the spot price decreased. The current pressure on finished product prices led to a contraction in electric furnace profits. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [10]. 3.2.4 Coke - During the holiday, the coke price increase was implemented, and the supply and demand decreased slightly. The profitability of coking enterprises improved slightly, but the high raw coal price still restricted the overall start - up. The demand was supported by high hot metal production. The upstream inventory was still at a low level. It is expected that the post - holiday price will remain oscillating [11]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal - During the holiday, some coking coal mines were on holiday, and the market operated stably. After the holiday, coal mine production will recover quickly, and Mongolian coal imports will also reach a high level. The overall supply is expected to increase, but the increase will be restricted. The demand for coking coal will remain high in the short term. Overall, the fundamental contradiction of coking coal is not prominent, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [11][12]. 3.2.6 Glass - During the holiday, the glass production and sales were weak, and manufacturers tried to raise prices to boost sentiment. A large amount of inventory was accumulated during the National Day. If the post - holiday price increase fails to stimulate restocking sentiment, the fundamental logic may suppress the futures and spot prices again. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [12][13]. 3.2.7 Soda Ash - During the holiday, soda ash was expected to accumulate inventory, and the fundamental supply - demand situation changed little. The supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3.2.8 Manganese Silicon - During the holiday, the manganese silicon market remained stable, and the pessimistic supply - demand situation suppressed the price. In the short - term, high production costs and peak - season demand expectations supported the price, but the market supply - demand expectation was pessimistic, and there was still downward pressure on the price center after the peak season [2][16]. 3.2.9 Silicon Iron - During the holiday, the silicon iron market operated stably, and the loose supply - demand situation pressured the price. In the short - term, peak - season expectations and firm costs supported the price, but the market supply - demand relationship was becoming looser, and there was still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2][17]. 3.3 Other Information - The report also provides basis seasonal charts for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, silicon iron, silicon manganese, glass, and soda ash, as well as profit seasonal charts and steel daily trading volume data. In addition, it shows the performance of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index and the steel industry chain index [19][20][61][81].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The futures market maintains a wide - range volatile operation, and investors should pay attention to position - holding risks before the holiday [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - In the past two days, the prices of coking coal and coke futures have been fluctuating weakly, driving the overall sector to weaken. On the spot market, coal prices in many places have remained stable after a continuous small - scale rebound. Due to increased costs, coke enterprises in many places plan to raise coke prices for the first time [2] Fundamental Analysis - Tangshan is affected by environmental protection policies and requires enterprises to prepare for hard emission - reduction measures before the end of September. However, most of the production restrictions are voluntary, and the actual implementation of production cuts is average. The daily average pig iron output last week increased by 13,400 tons to 2.4236 million tons, and the consumption of raw materials remains at a high level. Steel mills are generally profitable, and in the short - term, as the National Day holiday approaches, the downstream restocking enthusiasm is high, and the inventory of coking coal and coke is further transferred from upstream to downstream [2] Supply - side Situation - At the coal mine end, the production of previously resumed coal mines in Linfen, Shanxi has returned to normal, and the output has continued to rise. Coupled with the increased production of a large mining group in Qinyuan, Changzhi, the output has increased significantly. The daily average output of clean coal last week was 772,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. It is expected that the output of coal mines in the main producing areas of Shanxi will not fluctuate much this week, but some coal mines have reported that there will be a short - term shutdown for maintenance during the National Day holiday, and the output may decline slightly during this period [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - **Coke**: ★★★, showing a more distinct upward trend and a proper investment chance [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and an appropriate investment opportunity [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish tendency but with poor operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand expectations, lack of substantial production - limiting policies, and weak domestic demand, while steel exports remain high. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets have relatively strong support at previous lows but face pressure due to concerns about post - festival industrial chain feedback. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have upward price - driving forces and are recommended to go long on dips [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. The apparent demand for thread steel rebounded month - on - month, production stabilized, and inventory continued to decline. For hot - rolled coils, both demand and production declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Although the pig iron output increased and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain eased, poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today, and the basis has been fluctuating at a low level recently. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month and were stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Australia and those to China increased significantly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries remained high, while those from Brazil weakened slightly. The domestic arrival volume declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased last week. On the demand side, the profitability of steel mills declined, but the short - term resilience of pig iron production still supported iron ore demand. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward today. The first round of price hikes by coking plants is about to be fully implemented. Coke inventory continued to increase, and traders' purchasing willingness increased due to pre - holiday restocking demand. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level pig iron production provides support. However, the market is worried about post - festival industrial chain feedback, and the price is under pressure [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward today. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the pre - holiday restocking sentiment has basically ended. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level pig iron production provides support. The market is worried about post - festival industrial chain feedback, and the price is under pressure [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price recovered after hitting a low today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created new upward - driving forces. The pig iron output continued to rise, the weekly production of silicon manganese increased, and inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate was slow. It is recommended to go long on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price recovered after hitting a low today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created upward - driving forces. The pig iron output continued to rise, and export demand remained at about 30,000 tons. The secondary demand declined slightly, and overall demand is acceptable. Supply has recovered to a high level, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel supply - demand gap is narrowing. Although demand shows seasonal improvement, it is still insufficient during the peak season. Considering high - level exports, seasonal demand improvement, and a favorable macro - environment, steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Suggested to try long positions with light positions and hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures showed an oscillating downward trend last week. The supply - demand fundamentals improved slightly, but it was still insufficient during the peak season. The raw materials were stronger than the finished products. It is expected that the molten iron output will remain at a relatively high level in October, but there is a risk of port inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to view the single - side position as oscillating, short the iron ore 2601 contract at high prices, and conduct an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke futures showed an oscillating downward trend last week. Spot prices are expected to gradually rebound. The supply side has a slight decline in production, while the demand side has support. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2601 contract at high prices and conduct an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coke [6]. - Coking coal futures also showed an oscillating downward trend last week. The domestic coking coal market is relatively strong. After the recent significant restocking, the downstream restocking demand may decline, and coking coal prices may peak and fall. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices and conduct an arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased. All rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts dropped to 0 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged. The profits of most steel products decreased [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.4%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.1%. Rebar production remained unchanged, with electric - furnace output decreasing by 15% and converter output increasing by 2.2%. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.7% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.6%, rebar inventory decreased by 2.1%, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume increased by 12.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 2.8%, rebar apparent demand increased by 5.0%, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand remained unchanged [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types decreased, and the basis of the 01 contract for most types increased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 7.3%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.5%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.5% [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 13.2%, and the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 6.9%. The monthly national import volume increased by 0.6% [4]. Demand - The weekly average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume decreased by 0.8%. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.5%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.6%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 9.1% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - For coking coal, the prices of some types remained unchanged, while the prices of futures contracts decreased. The coking coal basis increased. For coke, the prices of some types decreased, and the prices of futures contracts also decreased. The coke basis increased [6]. Profit - The weekly sample coal mine profit decreased, while the weekly coking profit increased by 7.4% [6]. Supply - Coke production remained unchanged, and the production of some coking coal mines increased. The overall coking coal supply showed an upward trend [6]. Demand - The molten iron output increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal showed an upward trend [6]. Inventory - The overall coke inventory increased slightly, with coking plants and ports reducing inventory and steel mills increasing inventory. The overall coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with mines and ports reducing inventory and other links increasing inventory [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 观望情绪增加，焦煤震荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 多空因素交织，焦炭区间震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：根据钢联统计，截至 9 月 26 日当周，全国 523 家 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coal and coke market is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short - term, with strong supply - demand fundamentals and positive domestic macro - expectations [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: After the parade, domestic upstream production quickly recovered, and the customs clearance volume at the Mongolian coal ports of Ganqimaodu and Ceke remained high. The actual supply has changed little in the past week, but the supply - side intervention expectations are fluctuating due to policy news, causing significant fluctuations in futures prices [3]. - **Demand**: Pre - holiday restocking of raw materials has begun, and the current spot demand support is relatively strong [4]. - **Macro**: Overseas interest rate cuts were announced as expected, and the market had already priced in this factor, so the impact was limited after the announcement. Domestic macro - expectations remain strong, providing some support for the valuation of the black - metal sector [4]. 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal: 876.6 (+4.08); FW clean coal: 451.95 (+1.38) | Independent coking plants' daily average: 66.34 (-0.38); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average: 46.44 (-0.21) | | Demand | Hot metal production: 242.36 (+1.34) | Hot metal production: 242.36 (+1.34) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 14.6; Mine raw coal - 11.3; Mine clean coal - 21.8; Independent coking + 58.7; Steel mill coking + 5.7; Port - 16.7; FW port + 19.1 | MS total inventory + 5.2; Independent coking - 8.0; Steel mill + 16.6; Port - 3.4 | | Profit | Commodity coal: 452 (+31) | Average profit of coking enterprises: - 34 (-17) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 coal in Tangshan: 1185 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke: 1589 | [6] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weekly**: Data on 523 sample mine开工率, FW raw coal and clean coal production are presented, showing production trends over different years [9][11][13]. - **Monthly**: Data on coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal production are provided, showing monthly production trends from 2019 - 2025 [15]. - **Mongolian coal customs clearance**: Data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu, Mandula, Ceke ports and the total of the three ports are presented, showing trends from 2021 - 2025 [17][20][21][23]. - **Inventory** - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the inventory of raw coal in sample mines decreased by 23.63 tons to 162.33 tons, and the inventory of clean coal decreased by 10.01 tons to 104.68 tons [28]. - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 265.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.7 tons [30]. - **Coking plant**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants and their regional and capacity - based breakdowns are presented [33][35][37]. - **Steel mill**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their regional breakdowns are presented [38]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Capacity utilization**: Data on the capacity utilization of independent coking plants (including different capacity levels and regions) and 247 steel enterprises are presented [41][43]. - **Production**: Data on the daily production of independent coking plants and 247 steel enterprises are presented, showing trends over different years [45][47]. - **Inventory** - **Coking plant**: Data on the inventory of independent coking plants are presented, showing trends over different years [49]. - **Steel mill**: Data on the inventory, average available days, regional absolute inventory, and regional available days of 247 steel enterprises are presented [50][53][54]. - **Total sample**: Data on the total coke inventory are presented, showing trends from 2019 - 2025 [56]. - **Demand**: Data on the daily production of hot metal in 247 steel enterprises and the supply - demand difference of coke are presented [58][59]. - **Profit**: Data on the ton - coke futures (main - contract) profit and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are presented [62][63]. 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking coal futures**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from September 19 - 26, 2025 are presented, along with the coking coal index closing price [66]. - **Coke futures**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from September 19 - 26, 2025 are presented, along with the coke index closing price [68]. - **Coal and coke monthly spread**: Data on the spread between JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented [71]. - **Coal and coke spot**: Data on the car - board prices of different types of coking coal and the prices of different grades of metallurgical coke are presented [74]. - **Coal and coke basis**: The futures price may weaken due to macro - sentiment and policy news, and the basis has increased month - on - month [77].