11月26日，省十四届人大常委会第十九次会议听取了省政府《关于全省金融工作情况的报告》。报 告显示，前三季度，全省社会融资规模增量达2.99万亿元、居全国第一，法人金融机构总资产超15万亿 元，全省银行业不良贷款率0.82%、处于全国较低水平，金融业有力支撑江苏扛起经济大省挑大梁的责 任担当。 报告称，今年以来全省金融要素供给充裕、保障有力。前三季度，全省新增本外币贷款2.31万亿 元，保持全国第一；制造业贷款、科技型企业贷款、绿色贷款、普惠小微贷款余额分别较年初增长 11.1%、16.2%、22.9%和11%；非金融企业（不含央企）发行债券1.15万亿元。今年截至目前，全省新 增境内上市公司24家、居全国第一，其中23家属于战略性新兴产业；科创板和北交所上市公司数量分别 达114家、54家，均居全国首位。全国私募创投类基金投资江苏企业的在投本金规模超3000亿元，居各 省首位。 地方金融改革向新而行、亮点颇多。通过组建省国金投资集团和江苏农商联合银行，我省国有金融 资本布局进一步优化；通过设立华东地区首家信用增进公司，大力支持中小科创企业债券融资。省战略 性新兴产业基金集群加快发展，产业专项基金总规模已超千 ...

中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬指出，11月，美国政府重启后补发的一系列经济数据表现疲软，叠加多 位美联储鸽派官员安抚市场，哈塞特成为下届美联储主席核心候选者的市场消息，美联储12月降息概率 飙升至80%以上，美债上行、美元贬值，全球资产价格涨跌互现。受资产价格变化与汇率波动综合影 响，11月末外储环比上涨30亿美元至33464亿美元。 最新一期外储数据如期公布。12月7日，据人民银行官网公布的官方储备资产，截至2025年11月末，我 国外汇储备规模为33464亿美元，较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。 另外，11月末黄金储备报7412万盎司（约2305.39吨），环比增加3万盎司（约0.93吨），为连续第13个 月增持黄金。 11月末外储环比上涨30亿美元 对于当月外汇储备规模变动，国家外汇管理局指出，2025年11月，受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政 策预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合 作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势，为外汇储备规模保持基本 稳定提供支撑。 伴随美联储降息升温，全球地缘政治风险居高不下，近期国 ...

本周回顾 · 股票市场 本周（12月1日至12月5日）A股市场主要宽基指数悉数上涨。其中，上证指数周度上涨0.37%；深证成指周度上涨1.26%；创业板指周度上涨1.86%；新华 500指数周度上涨1.25%。 新华500指数本周震荡走高，开盘报5001.85点，至5日收盘报5050.16点，全周振幅1.82%，成交额为2.62万亿元。 从申万一级行业来看，本周行业指数涨跌分化，有色金属、通信、国防军工、机械设备、非银金融等行业指数涨幅居前，传媒、房地产、美容护理、食 品饮料、计算机等行业指数跌幅靠前。 美股市场方面，标普500指数收报6870.4点，本周累计上涨0.31%；纳指收报23578.13点，本周累计涨0.91%；道琼斯工业平均指数收报47954.99点，本周 累计涨0.5%；罗素2000指数收报2521.48点，本周累计涨0.84%。美国科技股七巨头（Magnificent 7）指数本周累计涨0.82%。 欧洲STOXX 600指数本周累计上涨0.41%，德国DAX 30指数本周累计上涨0.80%；法国CAC 40指数本周累计跌0.10%；英国富时100指数本周累计跌 0.55%。 · 大宗商品市 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The duration of secondary capital bonds has been continuously rising, while the durations of other credit bonds have generally shortened. As of December 5, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.90 years and 2.27 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.31 years, 3.78 years, and 1.94 years respectively. General commercial financial bonds were at a relatively low historical level, and secondary capital bonds were at a relatively high historical level. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.53 years, 1.83 years, 3.33 years, and 1.19 years respectively. The duration of securities subordinated bonds has significantly shortened compared to last week, and the durations of securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds were at relatively low historical levels [2][9]. - The coupon duration crowding index has slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, the coupon duration crowding index declined. This week, it increased compared to last week and is currently at the 20.8% level since March 2021 [11]. Summary by Directory 1. All - Variety Duration Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading duration hovered around 1.90 years. The duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds lengthened to 5.50 years, and the trading duration of Guangxi provincial urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.22 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, Henan prefecture - level cities, and Hunan province have exceeded 90%, and the duration of Hunan provincial urban investment bonds is approaching the highest level since 2021 [3][15]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds shortened compared to last week and was generally around 2.27 years. The trading duration of the transportation industry lengthened to 2.02 years, and the trading duration of the food and beverage industry shortened to 0.55 years. The trading duration of the real estate industry was at a relatively low historical level, while those of the non - ferrous metals and pharmaceutical and biological industries were at relatively high historical levels [3][21]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 1.94 years, at the 35.9% historical quantile, lower than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.31 years, at the 95.1% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.78 years, at the 67.7% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at historical quantiles of 71.4%, 22%, 31.8%, and 61.2% respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds has shortened compared to last week [3][26]. 2. Variety Microscope - Coupon duration crowding index: After reaching its peak in March 2024, the coupon duration crowding index decreased and then increased slightly this week. It is currently at the 20.8% level since March 2021 [11]. - Regional analysis of urban investment bonds: The report provides the durations and historical quantiles of urban investment bonds in different provinces and administrative levels, such as the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds lengthening to 5.50 years and Guangxi provincial urban investment bonds shortening to 1.22 years [15][20]. - Industry analysis of industrial bonds: Different industries within industrial bonds showed different duration changes. For example, the transportation industry's duration lengthened, and the food and beverage industry's duration shortened [21].

超长债承接不足如何缓解？ 核心结论 年末超长债配置力度偏弱。本周超长债承接不足问题发酵，带动 30Y 国债利 率大幅上行。不过伴随 30Y 国债利率上行，大行、城农商行、保险等配置盘 边际上增加了配置力度，但基金不时面临赎回压力，不确定性较大，对超长 债买入力度仍然较弱。 一级承接、IRRBB 考核压力下，银行二级超长债配置意愿降低。对于银行， 一方面，近年来超长期政府债供给规模大幅增加，银行一级承接后，倾向在 二级市场买入短期限债券，以管理资产久期，另一方面，承接长期限与超长 期限政府债不可避免地增大了资产负债的久期缺口，放大了银行账簿的利率 风险，部分银行账簿利率风险接近监管上限。 险资股债再平衡趋势延续，债券重点配置地方债、长期限信用债。2025 年 以来，监管发布多项措施引导中长期资金入市；对于长期限债券配置需求， 险资更倾向于相对高票息的地方债、长期限信用债等。 固定收益周报 政府债持续增发下，解决超长债承接问题有较多可行路径，以下建议供投资 人审酌参考：1）适当控制新发政府债久期；2）央行国债买卖可适度购入超 长期国债；3）引导非银资金参与超长政府债认购，如社保、年金、寿险及 其他资管机构，发行超 ...

"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"12月为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣枯线。 2025年12月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣枯线。经济学家们认为，当前我国经济处于弱复 苏状态，未来宏观政策将延续宽松基调，为"十五五"开局奠定坚实的基础。 经济学家们预计11月物价数据将较上月公布数据继续回升，CPI同比预测均值为0.72%，PPI同比预测均值为-2.05%，他们对固定资产投资累计增速预测 均值为-2.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均值为3.09%，工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.0%。同时，他们预计11月进出口同比数据均将高于上 月，贸易顺差将上升至999.87亿美元。 | 表 1 CBNRI 首席经济学家调研:2025年 11月经济数据预测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 10 月公布值 | 2025 年 11 月 | 2025 年 11 月 | 2025年11月预测 | | | | 预测均值 | 预测中位数 | 区间 | | 信心指数(2025年12月) | 50. 3 | 50 ...

Core Insights - The forum held on December 7, 2025, in Tengchong focused on the theme "AI + Finance: Technology Empowerment and Value Creation" [1] - Key discussions revolved around the integration of AI and finance, and how AI technology is reshaping the financial ecosystem [1] Group 1: Key Speakers and Contributions - Notable speakers included Gu Binglin, an academician from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and former president of Tsinghua University, and Xu Hao, the Vice Governor of Yunnan Province [4] - Keynote speeches were delivered by Zhang Yaping, a researcher at the Kunming Institute of Zoology, and Liang Tao, former vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission [4] Group 2: High-Level Discussions - A high-level dialogue moderated by Professor Tian Xuan featured insights from Ma Weihua, former president of China Merchants Bank, and Hu Jianhua, former managing director of China Merchants Group, discussing the mutual benefits of AI and finance [6] - Topics included the positive interaction between AI and finance, as well as risk governance [6] Group 3: Roundtable Forum - The roundtable forum included discussions on the deep application of AI in the financial sector, leading to the emergence of a new financial industry ecosystem [9] - Participants included Zhang Wei, assistant dean of Tsinghua University’s Wudaokou School of Finance, and other industry leaders who shared insights on the profound changes AI brings to the financial industry [9] Group 4: Organizers and Collaborators - The forum was organized by Tsinghua University’s Wudaokou School of Finance, with support from various institutions including the Yunnan Provincial State-owned Financial Capital Holding Group [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the risks associated with virtual currencies and related activities, highlighting that they are not recognized as legal tender in China and warning against illegal financial activities linked to them [1][3][4]. Group 1: Nature of Virtual Currencies - Virtual currencies are not issued by monetary authorities and do not hold the same legal status as national legal tender, thus cannot be circulated as currency within China [1][3]. - Certain virtual currencies, such as "air coins" (e.g., π coin), lack substantial technological innovation and clear commercial applications, leading to significant fraud and market manipulation issues [3][5]. - Stablecoins currently fail to meet customer identification and anti-money laundering requirements, posing risks of being used for money laundering and fraudulent fundraising [3][5]. Group 2: Prohibited Activities - Domestic institutions and individuals engaging in the exchange of legal currency for virtual currencies or issuing and financing real-world asset tokens are involved in illegal financial activities [4][5]. - Member institutions are prohibited from participating in the issuance and trading of virtual currencies and real-world asset tokens, and must not provide any related services [5]. - Financial institutions must conduct thorough customer due diligence to identify potential risks related to virtual currencies and report any suspicious activities to relevant authorities [5]. Group 3: Public Awareness and Caution - The public is urged to remain vigilant against various forms of virtual currency and real-world asset token activities, which are often linked to speculation and fraud [5]. - Individuals should enhance their risk awareness and avoid participating in virtual currency-related activities, including illegal fundraising under the guise of "mining" [5]. - Any suspicious activities related to virtual currencies should be reported to regulatory authorities or law enforcement [5].

来源：市场资讯 （来源：现代商业银行杂志） 近年来，从活期存款利率进入"0字头"，到中长期存款"降温"，越来越多的投资者开始寻找收益稳定且 风险可控的理财方式。越来越多的年轻人在资产配置上探索更稳健的理财方式：不同于传统的婚嫁"三 金"即金镯子、金项链、金戒指，如今年轻人用货币基金、债券基金和黄金基金等"新三金"组合配置， 守住自己的"钱袋子"。 "居民资产配置理念的升级，既有无风险利率持续降低的宏观环境因素驱动，也有数字时代金融信息获 取便捷度和投资工具普及度提升的带动。"杨赫注意到，专业金融机构统计数据显示，当前我国资产管 理总规模已突破170万亿元，成为全球第二大财富管理市场。 年轻人理财青睐"新三金" "这轮存款流向了资本市场，带动非银（券商、基金、保险公司）存款的增加，资本市场正在承接从银 行体系溢出的巨量流动性。"在金融街证券股份有限公司首席经济学家张一看来，目前的趋势之一是普 通家庭的资产负债表正在试图"去房地产化"，将资金腾挪到金融资产上，资产配置的逻辑之一是配置大 量低波资产，"资金大量流向各种固收类产品、短债基金，以获得比存款高1~2个百分点收益。" 实际上，在存款利率下行的背景下，越来越 ...

空气币的"传销式收割"最为隐蔽。以近期备受关注的π币为例，其宣称"手机点点就能挖矿""零成本高回报"，实际通过多级分销体系诱导参与 者"拉人头"，邀请人数与活跃度直接挂钩"挖矿"速度，形成典型的传销模式。2025年7月，Pi Network核心团队被曝抛售1200万枚π币套现80亿 美元跑路，而国内已查处多起相关案件，仅江苏一地团伙涉案金额就超2亿元。这类代币无实质性技术支撑、无明确应用场景，运营机制完全 不透明，所谓"价值"全靠虚假宣传维系，一旦资金链断裂，投资者血本无归。 稳定币则暗藏"非法资金通道"风险。尽管其宣称"与法定货币挂钩"以维持价格稳定，但七家协会明确指出，当前稳定币无法满足客户身份识 别、反洗钱等监管要求，已成为洗钱、集资诈骗、违规跨境转移资金的工具。这种特性使其成为犯罪团伙的"资金搬运工"，2020年GUCS虚拟 币案中，主犯王某某就通过虚拟货币转移犯罪所得，最终导致2.9万投资者损失超17亿元，其本人因集资诈骗罪、洗钱罪被判处无期徒刑。 新兴的RWA代币（现实世界资产代币化）并非"合规避风港"。这类通过代币化权益进行融资的活动，存在虚假资产、经营失败、投机炒作三 重风险，且我国金融管理部 ...