宏观 证券研究报告 |深度研究报告 2025/7/4 财政发力线索探析 财政政策力度进阶，从"适度加力"到"更加给力"。面对更趋严峻复杂的内外环境，2025年财政政策定调"持续用力、 更加给力"，较2024年"适度加力、提质增效"更为积极，强化逆周期调节以稳定经济基本盘。具体措施包括：显著提 升支出强度与进度（预算赤字率创新高，政府债券规模扩张），优化支出结构（重点倾斜民生、消费和新质生产力）， 并持续化解地方债务、房地产及金融等重点领域风险，确保财政可持续性。 债务工具扩容提质，规模用途双向拓展。2025年政府债务工具规模与用途双扩容。特别国债方面：新增国有大行资本补 充专项，超长期特别国债规模显著增加，重点投向国家战略安全、设备更新（支持领域拓宽及补贴标准提升）和消费品 以旧换新（新增数码补贴并优化机制）。专项债限额明显提升，改革实施"负面清单"管理，扩大使用范围（允许土地 储备、存量房转保障房等），资本金支持范围新增新兴产业且比例上限提高，审核流程简化（试点省份"自审自发"）。 执行层面，1-5月新增专项债发行进度平缓但快于去年同期，募集资金主要投向基建相关，土储较去年获更多资金倾斜； 化债资金高效落地 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market's funding situation remained loose on Thursday, with overnight rates oscillating at a low level around 1.36%. The 7 - day weighted average rate dropped 3.79bp to 1.4674%. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to stay loose due to external uncertainties from trade frictions, but the scope for further loosening of the funding situation is limited as long - term bond yields are relatively low and the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has risen above 108% [4]. - The stock index continued to fluctuate and rise. The US - Vietnam trade agreement may have a negative impact on China's re - export trade, while the lifting of export restrictions on China by three US chip design software suppliers will boost the relevant A - share electronics sector. In the short term, the stock index may present a volatile pattern due to shrinking trading volume and lackluster domestic and foreign positive factors. In the long term, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Additionally, the uncertain US tariff policy, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.51, down 4.43bp; DR007 at 1.91, down 3.79bp; GC001 at 1.15, down 20.00bp; GC007 at 1.49, down 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.61, down 1.35bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34, down 0.50bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.49, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65, up 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.30, up 4.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5093 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4521 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 3968, up 0.62%; SSE 50 at 2725, up 0.07%; CSI 500 at 5923, up 0.50%; CSI 1000 at 6343, up 0.53%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 13098 billion yuan, a decrease of 672 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with consumer electronics, biopharmaceuticals, electronic components, chemical pharmaceuticals, batteries, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors leading the gains, while shipbuilding and mining sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 closed at 3947, up 0.7%; IH当月 at 2708, up 0.2%; IC当月 at 5874, up 0.3%; IM当月 at 6279, up 0.3%. IF trading volume was 73590, up 3.9%, and its open interest was 238967, down 0.2%; IH trading volume was 34173, down 8.3%, and its open interest was 80640, down 2.3%; IC trading volume was 64956, down 0.8%, and its open interest was 220451, up 0.7%; IM trading volume was 162960, down 1.7%, and its open interest was 321768, up 0.8% [5]. - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF升贴水 was 13.16% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - quarter contract, 5.90% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.85% for the next - month contract; IH升贴水 was 1.87% for the current - month contract; IC升贴水 was 14.74% for the current - month contract, 12.12% for the next - quarter contract, 10.16% for the current - quarter contract, and 19.99% for the next - month contract; IM升贴水 was 13.19% for the current - month contract, 15.26% for the next - quarter contract, 24.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 18.07% for the next - month contract [7].

7 月利率展望：震荡格局下波段为主，关注大会增量 20250703 摘要 6 月债市整体震荡，实债收益率小幅下降至 1.65%左右。央行超预期买 断式逆回购操作呵护流动性，中美关税谈判及地缘政治冲突影响市场情 绪。月末银行季末考核压力导致债市小幅震荡走弱，但整体略走牛。 央行两次买断式逆回购操作净投放超 2000 亿，一年期国债收益率下降 超 10 个基点至约 1.35%，期限利差扩大至 38 个基点左右，国债收益 率曲线呈现走陡态势。 预计 7 月 CPI 同比增速在 0 附近徘徊，猪肉价格继续下行，原油价格因 地缘冲突有所回升。核心 CPI 温和回升受五一假期影响，消费修复内生 动力有限，对 CPI 拉动作用较弱。 预计政府债将继续成为社融主要支撑力量，6 月政府债净供给超 1.6 万 亿，同比翻倍。企业工业利润 5 月快速回落至负区间，居民部门地产修 复情况不明确，票据利率偏小幅度表现不支持社融大幅提升。 5 月出口保持正增长 4.8%，受抢出口和转出口韧性支撑。若中美关税互 免期内外溢性影响不显著，东盟、印度、欧洲等主要出口国仍会形成支 撑。下半年出口增速可能转负，需关注中美关税互免期结束时美方态度 ...

债市"科技板"下科创债落地以来，各类主体发行科创债热情持续高涨。 Wind数据显示，自5月份科技创新债券（简称"科创债"）相关政策落地以来，截至7月3日，全市场已发 行419只科创债，发行规模超6200亿元。其中，银行作为科创债重要的新增发行主体，目前已发行27只 科创债，发行规模超2200亿元。 业内人士指出，科创债2.0时代扩容发行主体，并完善一系列配套支持机制，推动市场进一步扩容，债 券市场支持科技创新的质效将有效提升。 发行规模突破6200亿元 5月7日，中国人民银行、中国证监会联合发布《关于支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜的公告》（以下简 称《公告》），从丰富科技创新债券产品体系和完善科技创新债券配套支持机制等方面，对支持科技创 新债券发行提出多项重要举措。 自5月7日以来，科创债发行持续放量。Wind数据显示，截至7月3日，债市"科技板"下科创债已发行419 只，发行规模达6248.98亿元。 从发行人的性质来看，中央国企和地方国企是科创债发行的主力。截至目前，中央国有企业发行科创债 3118.32亿元，占比49.90%；地方国有企业发行科创债2260.57亿元，占比36.18%；民营企业、公众企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar, highlighting its lowest performance since March 2022, and explores potential policy measures to address the overvaluation of the dollar while considering the implications for US assets and debt pressure [1]. Group 1: Currency Policy and Risks - The demand for reserve assets leads to a deviation from normal trade balance, primarily due to an overvalued exchange rate, which can be corrected through tariffs or addressing undervalued currencies of other countries [2]. - The pursuit of a fair value for the dollar may reduce its attractiveness to foreign investors, potentially leading to a significant decline in the value of US Treasury securities [2]. - A 15% decline in the value of US Treasury bonds could negate over one-third of expected interest payments, raising concerns about capital outflows amid existing fiscal deficits and inflation risks [2]. Group 2: Multilateral Currency Policy Agreements - Historical multilateral currency agreements, such as the Plaza Accord and Louvre Accord, have been effective in adjusting the value of the dollar, but current economic conditions differ significantly from those in the 1980s [5][7]. - The US government aims to use tariffs as leverage to negotiate currency agreements with trading partners like Europe and China, but these countries are unlikely to agree to currency adjustments due to their own economic challenges [7][9]. - The current distribution of reserve assets is concentrated in Middle Eastern and East Asian countries, complicating the implementation of multilateral agreements compared to the past [9]. Group 3: Unilateral Currency Policy Approaches - The article suggests that the Trump administration could explore unilateral measures to address the overvaluation of the dollar without relying solely on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [11]. - The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could be utilized to impose fees on foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities, making reserve accumulation less attractive [12]. - Gradual implementation of such policies is recommended to mitigate potential adverse effects on the dollar and financial markets [12][14]. Group 4: Accumulation of Foreign Currency Reserves - The US could mimic some trading partners by accumulating foreign currency reserves through purchasing dollars and selling them for other currencies, thereby increasing demand for those currencies [16]. - Utilizing the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) and the Federal Reserve's System Open Market Account (SOMA) are potential methods for accumulating foreign reserves, though they come with risks and require careful management [17][18]. - The article emphasizes the need for cooperation between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to effectively implement these strategies while maintaining the Fed's credibility in managing inflation [18][20].

Group 1 - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [1][2] - Energy prices were the main factor dragging down both the CPI and PPI, with energy prices decreasing by 6.1% year-on-year and 1.7% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall decline in CPI [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with hotel accommodation and tourism prices rising by 4.6% and 0.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [1][2] Group 2 - The PPI data showed signs of marginal improvement in terminal consumer demand, with life goods prices stabilizing and certain manufacturing sectors experiencing reduced year-on-year price declines [2] - High-tech product demand is expanding, with prices in sectors such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, aircraft manufacturing, and wearable smart devices increasing by 3.6%, 3.0%, and 2.1% respectively [2] - Analysts predict a likely upward trend in the price level, with CPI expected to gradually recover and PPI showing signs of marginal improvement due to the impact of previous consumption-boosting policies [2]

央行将以8项举措，助力上海国际金融中心建设。论坛上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜逐一介绍：设立银 行间市场交易报告库，发展自贸离岸债，在上海"先行先试"结构性货币政策工具创新，会同中国证监会 研究推进人民币外汇期货交易……八箭齐发，既关乎金融市场开放，又助力跨境贸易发展，还涉及金融 基础设施和政策工具的创新。 一套顶层设计、数个制度文件、系列政策规划、多项改革思路……6月18日开幕的2025陆家嘴论坛上， 多个金融管理部门主要负责人发声，释放多重信号，勾勒出创新与开放的金融新图景。 金融监管总局局长李云泽在会上"剧透"，将会同上海市政府联合发布《关于支持上海国际金融中心建设 行动方案》。随后，方案正式出炉，提出推动金融机构集聚、做实"五篇大文章"、扩大制度型开放、提 高监管水平等五方面内容。 ——以深化科创板、创业板改革为抓手，加快构建更有利于支持全面创新的资本市场生态的政策举 措"亮相"。新的政策组合将更好发挥资本市场枢纽功能，推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展。 ——支持上海国际金融中心建设，中央顶层设计安排与金融管理部门新政面世，划定时间表，提供方法 论，释放出增强金融竞争力、推进金融高水平开放的强信号。 中国证 ...

Group 1 - The global bond term premium is rising, reflecting investor concerns about future interest rate risks and economic policy uncertainties, with Japan's 10-year bond term premium increasing by over 40 basis points since early last year [1] - In Germany, the term premium has also risen over the past two years due to the need to absorb the impact of the European Central Bank's balance sheet reduction and increased government stimulus plans [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that since late April, the market has begun to bet more aggressively on the Federal Reserve adopting easing policies, although any deterioration in U.S. economic growth and employment data could reignite growth concerns [1] Group 2 - BlackRock indicates that while the U.S. economy is slowing, it has not reached alarm levels, with expectations of a moderate slowdown in the labor market maintaining job growth around 100,000 [2] - UBS economists highlight early indicators of a weak U.S. job market, with rising unemployment claims and predictions of only 100,000 new jobs in June [2] - The National Australia Bank suggests that increasing government spending beyond fiscal capacity may undermine market confidence in the U.S. dollar, contributing to its decline [2] Group 3 - Analysts from the Netherlands International Group state that the Bank of England's potential slowdown in quantitative tightening seems to support the British pound, reducing the risk of further depreciation [2] - The South Korean inflation rate is expected to remain around the Bank of Korea's 2% target, allowing for a cautious monetary policy approach focused on financial stability [2] - South Korea's overall consumer inflation rate rose by 2.2% year-on-year in June, slightly above market expectations, indicating stable underlying inflation pressures [2] Group 4 - Phillip Nova's analysis suggests that a weaker U.S. dollar may extend upward momentum in oil prices, despite the market already digesting production increase news [3] - Nomura's economists note that South Korea's strong exports and increased fiscal spending plans may alleviate concerns about economic growth, potentially leading to a more hawkish stance in the upcoming policy meeting [3] - The median wage growth among major employers in the UK increased from 3.2% to 3.4%, with a significant impact on the service sector, while manufacturing was less affected [3]

Core Insights - Since March, the central bank has actively responded to short-term situations, implementing precise measures to maintain a balanced and loose liquidity environment. Although the probability of further rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions in the short term is low, the central bank is expected to utilize appropriate tools if necessary to ensure stable liquidity. The bond market is likely to return to an upward trend, and investors are encouraged to seize the buying opportunity in July and August [1][5][24]. July Monetary Policy and Liquidity Outlook - July is a significant month for tax payments, which will increase liquidity disturbances [15]. - Approximately 2.8 trillion yuan of certificates of deposit will mature in July, primarily consisting of one-year and three-month maturities. In the context of a slowing deposit absorption pace, banks are likely to have strong motivation to replenish the certificate of deposit gap [17]. - The issuance scale of government bonds in July is slightly lower than in June, with net financing around 1.4 trillion yuan. Additionally, nearly 200 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds have yet to be issued [20]. - There will be 1.2 trillion yuan of reverse repos and 300 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing in July, with the scale being higher than in June. Investors are closely watching whether the central bank will initiate bond buying and change the announcement method [22]. Central Bank Operations - The central bank has been actively addressing different monthly demands since March, maintaining a balanced and loose liquidity stance. The policy toolbox has become "multi-term and flexible," allowing for timely decisions based on market needs [11][22]. - The market is currently focused on whether the central bank will restart bond buying. This ongoing speculation has influenced market trends, with investors closely monitoring indicators that reflect market liquidity and central bank intentions [24].

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*动态点评 2025 年 07 月 02 日 固定收益研究 市场一致预期的形成与央行对一致预期的引导 去年以来至今年年中，央行多次在货币政策委员会例会和货币政策执行报告 中表示要评估债市运行情况，关注长期收益率的变化，防止单边一致预期的 强化。这两年来，央行一直通过多种措施来积极引导市场合理预期。 比如去年央行多次通过发文和对农商行等市场参与主体进行窗口指导，甚至 禁止部分市场主体买入长债，以起到交易警示作用。去年 12 月 18 日央行约 谈了债市行情中部分交易激进的金融机构，要求加强债券投资稳健性；12 月 末，央行又对三家金融机构因债券市场违规行为开出了重磅罚单。 再比如去年四季度在政治局会议释放适度宽松的货币政策和年底机构抢配的 共同因素下，十年期国债利率直接从 2.1%附近击穿 2.0%的新低后又快速打 到了 1.6%左右。今年 1 月初，央行就通过流动性操作的边际变化来影响市场， 金融时报也开始提示避免对货币宽松政策过度解读。一季度，央行资金供给 继续紧平衡，连续回笼并减少投放，恰逢银行信贷"开门红"，资金需求体量 较大，使得资金利率一度攀升，DR007 一度维持 2 ...