Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the global distribution of non-ferrous resources is uneven, and strategic metals are becoming a focal point for countries, leading to a revaluation of their worth, with supply being the core theme [2][5][14] - Unlike previous trends driven by macro demand recovery, strategic metals have shown stronger excess returns compared to non-ferrous indices and base metals this year, with supply acting as the main catalyst [2][5][14] Rare Earth Magnets - Rare earths are highlighted as a core strategic metal, with potential price increases due to tightening domestic controls and possible disruptions in overseas supply [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's proactive supply reduction in response to weak prices is expected to weaken the price suppression effect [5] - New regulations on rare earth management are set to enhance industry concentration and control [5] Tungsten - The report forecasts a continued rigid supply for tungsten, supporting an upward price trend due to limited new mining projects and declining output from existing mines [5] - The anticipated decline in domestic mining quotas for 2025 is expected to further bolster bullish sentiment regarding tungsten prices [5] Cobalt - Cobalt's supply is highly concentrated, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) accounting for 75% of global production, and the DRC's export ban reflects a strong price support intention [5] - The report predicts a significant reduction in DRC's external inventory by 2025, leading to potential price increases [5] Nickel - Indonesia's government policies are expected to support nickel prices, but upward price elasticity will depend on macroeconomic recovery [5] - The report notes that the current tightness in nickel supply is expected to maintain price stability [5] Lithium - Despite current supply pressures and declining prices, the report suggests that a significant resource clearing will take time, with oversupply continuing to suppress prices [5] - However, the report indicates that lithium prices have stabilized at around 70,000 yuan/ton, providing a safety margin for investments [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that significant inventory depletion may trigger a short squeeze, leading to a strong performance in copper prices. This week, copper prices in London, Shanghai, and New York rose by 2.1%, 2.5%, and 6.0% respectively. The price surge is attributed to macroeconomic factors, including a significant drop in the US dollar and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as well as a substantial reduction in inventory levels [6][27]. - The report suggests that the current low inventory levels will support strong copper prices in the short term, with a focus on subsequent inventory changes and potential short squeeze scenarios [6][27]. - For aluminum, the report indicates that prices are fluctuating at high levels due to low inventory, while the alumina market is experiencing weak pricing due to ample supply [6][37]. - Lithium prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with expectations for future production cuts and seasonal demand to provide support. The report notes that lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.24% to 61,150 CNY/ton [6][73]. - The report also mentions that cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to an extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which may lead to a tight supply situation in Q4 [6][85]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 5.11%, surpassing the index by 3.20 percentage points [13][14]. - The report provides insights into the performance of various sub-sectors, with copper, tin, and copper materials showing the most significant gains [13]. 2. Industrial Metals Copper - London copper prices increased by 2.10%, while Shanghai copper prices rose by 2.47%. Inventory levels in London and Shanghai decreased by 7.99% and 19.11% respectively [27]. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 2.02%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 0.24%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels in Shanghai [37]. Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased by 2.24%, and zinc prices rose by 4.22%. The report indicates a positive shift in profitability for mining companies [50]. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices saw an increase of 4.64%, while nickel prices rose by 1.81%. The report highlights a decline in inventory levels for both metals [64]. 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium prices are showing signs of stabilization, with lithium carbonate prices rising to 61,150 CNY/ton. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side adjustments and seasonal demand [73]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to the extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which may lead to a tighter supply situation [85].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][108]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to unresolved negotiations for long-term contracts, with recent price changes of +0.83% for London copper, -0.03% for Shanghai copper, and +1.74% for New York copper. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring financial aspects such as U.S. import investigations and economic data [5][25]. - Aluminum prices are also fluctuating, with a decrease in alumina prices by 3.35% to 3170 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices are stable at 20525 CNY/ton, supported by ongoing inventory depletion [5][36]. - Lithium prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with carbonate lithium prices down 0.41% to 60400 CNY/ton, and the report suggests waiting for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][77]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to raw material shortages in Q4 [5][90]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 3.57%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.07 percentage points [11]. - The report notes that the U.S. retail sales for May fell by 0.9%, which was below expectations, while initial jobless claims were in line with forecasts [9]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.83%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.03%. The report indicates a significant drop in London copper inventory by 13.34% [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - The report states that aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility, with a recent increase in aluminum profits by 3.60% to 4383 CNY/ton [36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices saw a slight increase of 0.23% in London, while zinc prices rose by 1.91% in London [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have shown minor fluctuations, with London tin prices up by 0.08% and Shanghai tin prices down by 1.26% [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are under pressure, with carbonate lithium down 0.41% to 60400 CNY/ton, and the report suggests that the market is waiting for supply-side adjustments [77]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are stable domestically, with a slight decrease in MB cobalt prices by 0.32% to 15.63 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices remain unchanged at 23.50 CNY/ton [90].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a stable upward trend with expectations of tightening supply in the second half of the year [14] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with better-than-expected production in photovoltaic aluminum profiles [14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are gaining attractiveness due to heightened geopolitical tensions [14] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices decreased by 0.24% to $9647.50 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper fell by 1.17% to 78,000 yuan per ton [15] - Aluminum prices increased by 2.10% to $2503.00 per ton on LME, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.84% to 20,000 yuan per ton [3] - Gold prices rose by 3.16% to $3452.60 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid international tensions [17] 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$44.75 per ton [15] - National copper inventory decreased by 0.47 thousand tons to 14.48 thousand tons [15] - Expected increase in operating rates for copper enterprises in China by 1.57 percentage points to 54.56% by June 2025 [15] 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 460,000 tons [3] - The operating rate of aluminum processing leaders fell by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% [3] 2.3 Precious Metals - SPDR gold holdings increased by 4.27 tons to 940.49 tons [17] - Geopolitical events, including the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, have increased gold's short-term safe-haven appeal [17] 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum, with export controls likely to drive prices higher [35] - Antimony prices are expected to rebound due to new certification standards for flame-retardant cables [39] - Molybdenum prices remain stable, with a positive outlook due to increased demand in the steel industry [40] 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for dysprosium and terbium remained stable at $800 and $3500 per ton, respectively [36] - The Chinese government is facilitating compliant trade for heavy rare earth products [36] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony ingot prices fell to 189,500 yuan per ton, reflecting weak export demand [39] - The upcoming implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant cables may boost demand for antimony [39] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices remained stable at 3840 yuan per ton [40] - Steel procurement volumes have increased by 8% year-on-year, supporting molybdenum demand [40] 5. Overview of Energy Metals Market - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.4% to 60,400 yuan per ton, while hydroxide prices decreased by 2.18% to 66,000 yuan per ton [6] - Cobalt prices remained stable, while nickel prices decreased by 2.5% to $15,100 per ton [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to mixed economic indicators from the US, with a recent decline in copper prices following lower-than-expected CPI data [5] - Aluminum prices are supported by continuous inventory depletion and tight spot supply, while alumina prices have seen a slight decline [5] - Lithium prices are under pressure at the bottom, with a slight increase in carbonate lithium prices, but the market is awaiting further production cuts from mining sources [5] - Cobalt prices have seen a slight increase, with attention on potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could impact supply [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview 1.1 Important Information - US May CPI was reported at 2.4%, slightly below expectations, indicating potential economic impacts [9] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including Israeli airstrikes on Iran, may affect market stability [9] 1.2 Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.79% [11] - The sector's performance was led by magnetic materials, gold, and cobalt, while copper, lithium, and aluminum lagged [11] 1.3 Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 19.13, with a slight increase of 0.59 [18] - The PB_LF for the sector is 2.21, reflecting a 0.07 increase [18] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices saw a decline of 1.44% in London and 1.17% in Shanghai, with significant inventory reductions [23] - The copper smelting profit margin has worsened, indicating financial pressures on producers [23] 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices increased by 1.88% in London and 1.79% in Shanghai, supported by inventory depletion [34] - The profit margin for aluminum producers improved significantly due to rising prices [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased slightly, while zinc prices saw a decline, with mining profits narrowing [48] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices remained stable, while nickel prices experienced a slight decline, with profitability for domestic nickel enterprises shrinking [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.75%, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased [72] - The profitability of lithium refining remains negative, indicating challenges in the sector [72] 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have seen a slight increase, with domestic refining margins improving [84]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant role of China in the global rare earth market, with a projected production share of 69.23% in 2024, indicating strong market influence and potential for growth in demand due to advancements in sectors like electric vehicles and wind power [1]. Group 1: Rare Earth and Metal Production - The rare earth sector saw a notable increase of 3.52%, attracting market attention [1]. - According to USGS, China's rare earth production is expected to dominate the global market, reinforcing its strategic importance [1]. - Citic Securities anticipates sustained growth in demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials, benefiting the sector amid strict national resource controls, which may stabilize prices and enhance profitability for companies in this space [1]. Group 2: Other Metals and China's Position - China also leads in the production of tungsten, vanadium, cobalt, and antimony, with production shares exceeding 50%, particularly tungsten at 82.72%, showcasing significant industry chain advantages [1]. - In basic metals, China is the largest producer of electrolytic aluminum, with a projected 2024 production share of 59.72%, and also holds over 30% shares in lead and zinc production [1]. - However, China faces challenges in copper production, with a 2024 output of 1.8 million tons, accounting for only 7.83% of global production, due to issues like small scale, low grade, and high extraction costs [1].

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide investment ratings for the industry sectors discussed. Core Insights - The industrial metals sector is experiencing an upward turning point in market conditions, particularly for copper and aluminum, driven by easing trade tensions between the US and China [13]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are facing downward pressure due to a stronger US dollar and reduced appeal as a safe-haven asset amid improving trade relations [15]. - The rare earth sector is witnessing a simultaneous increase in both domestic and international prices, driven by export controls and a recovering market sentiment [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices increased slightly, with LME copper at $9,440.00 per ton and Shanghai copper at ¥78,100 per ton. A notable rise in copper inventory was observed, ending a ten-week decline, attributed to weakened downstream demand [13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.75% to $2,484.50 per ton, with domestic inventories remaining low despite a slight decrease in stock levels [14]. - Gold prices fell by 1.13% to $3,205.30 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and easing trade tensions between the US and China [15]. 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The report highlights a significant increase in copper inventory, reaching 132,000 tons, marking a shift in market dynamics due to reduced demand [13]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate has dropped to -$43.05 per ton, indicating pressure on the supply side [13]. 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 581,000 tons, remaining at a near three-year low, while the cost of prebaked anodes increased slightly [14]. - The report notes that the Guinean government has revoked mining licenses for over 40 companies, impacting aluminum ore production capacity [14]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of US-China trade negotiations on gold prices, with a significant reduction in SPDR gold holdings [15]. - Economic indicators such as the US CPI and PPI suggest a cooling inflation environment, which may influence future monetary policy [15]. 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth market is experiencing price increases, particularly for dysprosium and terbium, driven by export controls and a recovering market sentiment [32]. - The antimony market is expected to see price recovery due to supply disruptions from Myanmar and ongoing anti-smuggling efforts in China [33]. - Tin prices have risen, supported by positive expectations from US-China trade negotiations, despite some production concerns [35]. 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for rare earth elements are showing upward trends, with significant increases in overseas prices following export control measures [32]. - The report anticipates a continued tightening of supply due to regulatory changes and geopolitical factors affecting production [32]. 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to recover as supply constraints from Myanmar persist, alongside increased demand from various sectors [33]. 4.3 Tin - Tin prices are supported by a favorable market outlook, driven by demand recovery in sectors such as semiconductors and photovoltaics [35].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **gold and rare earth industries**, focusing on market trends, price fluctuations, and geopolitical influences affecting these sectors [1][2][4][5]. Key Points on Gold Market - The gold market is currently experiencing **volatile movements**, with COMEX gold prices showing a tendency towards a triangular convergence pattern. This volatility is attributed to previous significant price increases that require correction [4]. - The **upcoming expiration of U.S. short-term debt in June** is expected to lead to a depreciation of the dollar, which could positively impact gold prices [2][4][7]. - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include **Wanguo Gold, Lingbao Gold, and Tongguan Gold** [1][2][4]. Key Points on Rare Earth Market - In April, the rare earth magnetic materials sector faced challenges due to **tariff impacts and export controls**, leading to a decline in praseodymium-neodymium (Pr-Nd) prices to the range of **400,000-410,000 CNY**. However, prices began to recover in May as market expectations improved following the resumption of U.S.-China negotiations [1][5][6]. - The **supply of rare earths remains tight**, particularly for heavy rare earths, as China maintains a dominant position in refining and separation capabilities. The mining quotas have remained unchanged for six years, leading to supply constraints [8][10]. - The **price of Pr-Nd is expected to rise moderately** due to improved demand expectations and clearer supply indicators. The price is currently supported at the **400,000-410,000 CNY** level [9]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - Ongoing **U.S.-China trade negotiations** and geopolitical tensions in regions like **India-Pakistan and the Middle East** are critical factors that could influence market expectations and asset performance [7]. - The **tight supply of rare earths from overseas** is expected to persist, as new production capacities are primarily focused on light rare earths, which cannot fully compensate for the supply gap left by China [8][10]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the **magnetic materials sector**, with specific recommendations for companies such as **Guangsheng Nonferrous, Kinglong Permanent Magnet, and Ningbo Yunsheng**. These companies are expected to benefit from the recovery in upstream magnetic prices [11]. - The overall sentiment in the **non-ferrous metals sector** remains positive, particularly for gold, rare earths, and cobalt, with a strategic approach to accumulate positions during market dips [2][3][11]. Additional Insights - The **light rare earth supply indicators** are expected to tighten significantly in 2024, which may lead to a moderate increase in dysprosium-aluminum prices [8]. - The **impact of export controls** on heavy rare earths is significant, as it has led to a cautious purchasing sentiment among downstream buyers, affecting overall demand [5][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the gold and rare earth industries.

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. congressional action aims to impose sanctions on countries that restrict rare earth exports, indicating a shift towards aggressive legislative measures to control global resource distribution [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Actions and Implications - The new legislation grants the U.S. more tools to intervene and potentially punish countries or companies that do not align with its interests, creating significant uncertainty in the global supply chain [5]. - This move reflects the U.S.'s urgency to secure its position in critical industries such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and military materials, all of which rely heavily on rare earth elements [3][5]. Group 2: Global Resource Dynamics - The uneven global distribution of rare earth resources complicates the U.S.'s ability to control exports from other nations, as many countries view resource management as a matter of national sovereignty [3][5]. - The legislation could lead to a backlash from resource-rich countries, as it challenges their rights to manage their own resources, potentially destabilizing international trade relations [5][9]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Countries, particularly resource-rich ones like China, are likely to respond by reinforcing their own export controls and optimizing their resource management strategies, reflecting a broader struggle for global influence [5][7]. - The situation emphasizes the need for countries to balance protecting their strategic interests while maintaining stable supply chains, indicating a complex interplay of economic and political factors [7][9]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The effectiveness of the U.S. legislation remains uncertain, as it may provoke resistance from other nations and complicate the global resource market, highlighting the challenges of unilateral actions [5][10]. - The next steps for the global community will be crucial, as countries must decide whether to compromise or strengthen cooperation against perceived unilateral dominance [9].