Group 1 - The article predicts that the convertible bond market will continue to experience fluctuations in the next one to two weeks, laying a foundation for the year-end market trend [1] - The recent A-share market has undergone a significant adjustment, influenced by both internal and external factors, with convertible bonds showing relative resilience [1] - External factors include volatility in the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which has suppressed risk appetite in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the market is expected to enter a "spring rally" layout window in December, with institutional investors likely to shift from defensive sectors to those with high growth certainty for 2026 [2] - Key catalysts for market recovery may include the release of policy signals, particularly from the Central Economic Work Conference typically held in mid-December [2] - The article recommends a defensive investment strategy while also considering structural opportunities, with a focus on technology growth sectors, high-end manufacturing, and green energy [2]

Core Viewpoint - A public fund, which previously faced significant losses and reduced its scale to 40 million, has successfully transformed by investing in AI, achieving a 12-fold increase in scale and doubling its value within a year [1][4][20]. Fund Performance - The fund's unit net value experienced a maximum decline of nearly 60% in less than two years, dropping from 246 million to approximately 40 million [4]. - As of November 18, 2025, the unit net value surged to 1.52, with an annual return of 109.57%, effectively doubling its value [4][20]. Investment Strategy - Initially, the fund heavily invested in the liquor sector, with seven out of ten top holdings in well-known brands, but faced losses due to a downturn in the industry [6][8]. - The fund manager, Liu Xiaoming, pivoted to AI investments, recognizing the potential in CPO sectors, which began to show significant profit growth [12][14]. - In 2025, the fund aggressively increased its positions in key AI-related stocks, achieving substantial gains, with some stocks seeing increases of over 350% [14][16]. Fund Scale and Challenges - Following the impressive performance, the fund's scale grew from 344 million in Q2 2025 to 4.487 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 12-fold increase [20]. - The increase in scale presents challenges, as larger funds face reduced flexibility in trading and may struggle to manage liquidity effectively [22][24]. - The transition from a small, agile fund to a larger one requires not only a focus on sector selection but also skills in position management and industry diversification [24].

Core Insights - The global asset allocation trend is shifting towards increasing allocation in RMB assets, driven by China's economic recovery and technological innovations like AI, with A-shares expected to continue rising and sectors like new energy and consumption showing investment value [1][2][4] Global Asset Allocation Trends - Two main themes have emerged in global asset allocation: the first is risk aversion, with gold prices rising significantly as central banks increase their gold holdings, indicating strong market demand for safe-haven assets [4] - The second theme is the "valuation gap effect" in risk assets, where funds are moving towards undervalued assets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, as the dollar's strength diminishes [4] - The increasing convertibility and liquidity of RMB assets are enhancing their appeal to international capital [4] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a maximum increase of over 20% this year, maintaining a volatile yet upward trend after surpassing the 4000-point mark [7] - The current 4000-point level in A-shares differs fundamentally from previous bull markets, with a shift from retail and leveraged funds to institutional capital driving the market [9] - A-shares are expected to have a 20%-30% upside potential, supported by improving valuation and earnings [11] Investment Focus Areas - Three key investment directions are identified: technology sector opportunities, new energy sector expected to lead in the cross-year market, and precious metals as safe-haven assets [11] - The energy sector, including both new and traditional energy, is seen as a core driver of technological development, with innovative pharmaceuticals also gaining attention [11] - There is a noted overheating in AI hardware, with a potential shift of funds towards software and application sectors, emphasizing the importance of application services [11] Cross-Year Market Expectations - The A-share market is poised for a cross-year rally, supported by stable trading volumes and the absence of earnings burdens during the reporting gap [12] - New energy is expected to be the leading sector in the upcoming cross-year market, with regional sectors benefiting from policy expectations also gaining traction [13] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide clear policy signals that could further energize the market [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, US technology stocks have significantly corrected, and domestic stock indices have also seen increased divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen to around 3800. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflows of incremental funds. After the consolidation of stock indices, there is still upward momentum [3][4]. - The international situation is complex, but positive results have been achieved in China - US economic and trade consultations. The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds [4]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of stock indices is clear. New technologies and new consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. The "15th Five - Year Plan" raises requirements for technological innovation and expands domestic demand [4]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - to - long - term funds and individual investors into the market will enter a new cycle [4]. - In the future, attention should be paid to trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the market can maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on technology - growth sectors with certain profitability, such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotational allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance (securities) and consumption [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices mainly fluctuated. As of November 21, 2025, the Nasdaq Index fell 2.74%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.95%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 7.18%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.90%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 5.80%, the SSE 50 Index fell 2.72%, the ChiNext Index fell 6.15%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 5.54%. Most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices declined this week, with many sectors such as power equipment, comprehensive, and commercial retail falling more than 5% [11][14]. 3.2 Liquidity - The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate of inter - bank deposit - type financial institutions (DR007) remained low. In October, 200 billion yuan of MLF was to be injected, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was around 1.8%. - The increase in social financing was lower than the seasonal average, with declines in the two major sub - items of credit and government bonds. At the end of October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, slightly lower than that in September. The new social financing in October was 815 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly affected by seasonal factors and the slowdown in government bond issuance. - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. In October, the growth rate of M2 slowed down by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2% compared with September, and the M1 - M2 scissors gap narrowed to 2% (0.1 percentage point smaller than in September), indicating an increase in the "activity" of funds [15]. 3.3 Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and the Shanghai Composite Index had a significant weekly decline. From January to October 2025, the cumulative number of newly opened A - share accounts in the A - share market was 22.4588 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets (MA5) remained around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity was an important factor supporting the current index [24][26]. 3.4 Index Valuation - As of November 21, 2026, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.10, with a percentile of 77.22, and the latest PB of the entire A - share market was 21.27, with a percentile of 79.56. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50. The absolute valuation of the index was at a low level, but the percentile was relatively high [32]. 3.5 Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 Index, the weights of the banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage sectors were relatively high, at 21.31%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry. - In the SSE 300 Index, the weights were relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banking, non - banking finance, and electronics. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [39][40][44]. 3.6 Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March proposed an economic growth target, a moderately loose monetary policy, and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates were cut, and a 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, achievements in the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" were summarized, and reforms in the capital market were deepened. In October, the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee set the goals and deployments for the "15th Five - Year Plan", emphasizing technology and expanding domestic demand [45][46]. - US policies: The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - basis - point cut in October. As of November 22, the probability of another interest - rate cut by the Fed in December has decreased, but it is still expected to cut rates once within the year [47].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3834.89 points, down 2.45%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.41% [1] - Over 5000 stocks in the market fell, indicating a widespread downturn, with many stocks seeing cumulative declines exceeding 10% over two weeks [5] Sector Performance - The lithium mining sector faced a "limit down" trend, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting their daily trading limits [2] - The storage chip sector saw sharp declines, with companies like Purun Co. and Shannon Chip Innovation dropping over 10% [3] - The photovoltaic equipment sector also adjusted collectively, with Jinchen Technology hitting its daily limit down [4] Risk Factors - Global risks, particularly the fluctuating expectations around the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, have contributed to market volatility [6][7] - The Japanese bond market's increased volatility has raised global asset pricing risk premiums, affecting high-valuation assets, especially in AI and technology sectors [8][9] - The AI computing sector, a crowded investment area, is experiencing a shift as investors reassess risks, impacting related stocks in A-shares [11] Domestic Influences - Core technology sectors have seen significant declines over the past two weeks, with the large fund holdings index dropping approximately 3.24% last week and over 4% this week [12] - Semiconductor and chip-related indices have also experienced double-digit corrections, indicating that the recent downturn is a cumulative risk release rather than an isolated event [13] Market Dynamics - The market has shown a pattern of "slow rise and rapid decline," with main funds managing their positions strategically [18][19] - The AI computing sector has been central to the recent sell-off, being the most sensitive to valuation changes amid external pressures [20][21] Technical Analysis - The 20-week moving average is identified as a critical support level for the market, with expectations of further declines towards this level before potential stabilization [23][25] - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently near the 20-week line, which is projected to provide significant technical support [25] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid panic selling during downturns and to reassess their portfolio allocations, focusing on valuation and performance stability [34][36] - The current market environment is viewed as a phase of "stage adjustment" rather than a beginning of a medium-term downtrend, suggesting a potential for recovery after the risk release [28][42]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's latest performance has created significant market fluctuations, with its revenue and guidance remaining strong, yet the stock price has shown volatility, reflecting concerns about future growth sustainability amid external uncertainties [1][3]. Market Performance - Nvidia's stock price initially rose over 5% on the earnings release day but closed down 3.15%, with a cumulative decline of nearly 12% in November [1][3]. - The AI computing sector in the A-share market has also been impacted, with a 3.38% drop in the computing power concept sector and a net outflow of 141.2 billion yuan on November 21 [4]. Investment Trends - The computing power sector is undergoing a reevaluation of its valuation against fundamentals, with some institutions needing to liquidate funds as the year-end approaches [4]. - Long-term demand for AI computing remains strong, driven by major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon increasing capital expenditures [4][6]. Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic internet companies are experiencing a mixed capital expenditure trend due to chip supply constraints, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in AI and cloud infrastructure over three years, while Tencent's capital expenditure has decreased by 24% year-on-year [6]. - The domestic computing power ecosystem is rapidly evolving, with a significant shift towards local chip suppliers, projected to increase their market share from 37% to 40% by 2025 [6][7]. Technological Advancements - The focus in the computing power industry is shifting from hardware accumulation to efficiency optimization, with significant advancements in model performance and cost reduction [8][9]. - Research indicates that the capability density of large models is expected to double approximately every 3.5 months, suggesting a move away from merely increasing model size [8]. Industry Collaboration - The domestic computing power ecosystem is forming a more comprehensive division of labor, with improvements across all stages from chip design to data center deployment [7]. - System-level innovations, such as the adoption of supernode technology, are helping domestic companies enhance computing performance despite limitations in chip capabilities [9]. Emerging Opportunities - The AI computing sector is becoming a primary growth engine for the communications industry, with investment opportunities emerging in various sub-sectors, particularly in optical modules and chips [12]. - The liquid cooling technology market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029, indicating a shift towards more efficient cooling solutions [10][13]. Investment Shifts - Investment in the computing power industry is transitioning from infrastructure to application innovation, reflecting a maturation of the sector [13]. - The core drivers of the computing power industry are evolving from mere scale expansion to a dual focus on efficiency enhancement and self-sufficiency [13].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in profit despite a decline in gross profit, primarily driven by gains from financial assets measured at fair value [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, was approximately HKD 554 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.13% [1] - Gross profit was approximately HKD 64.6 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 21.2% [1] - Profit attributable to shareholders was approximately HKD 1.218 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 1,155% [1] - Basic earnings per share were HKD 1.313 [1] Factors Influencing Performance - The decline in gross profit is attributed to high fixed costs associated with the early development stage of AI computing power and related businesses [1] - The increase in profit is mainly due to gains from the fair value changes of financial assets recognized in profit or loss [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a morning surge followed by a decline in the afternoon, while the AI computing sector remained strong, showing resilience with upward trends in related ETFs [1] - NVIDIA's latest earnings report exceeded expectations, countering market skepticism regarding "peak growth" and "AI bubble" claims, with CEO Jensen Huang emphasizing the continuous and exponential growth in computing demand for AI applications [1] - NVIDIA provided a robust sales forecast for Q4, projecting revenue of $65 billion, surpassing the general expectation of $62 billion, indicating sustained growth momentum even at high baseline levels [1] ETF Overview - The Huaxia ChiNext AI ETF (159381) tracks the ChiNext AI Index, focusing on companies in the AI sector, with over 54% weight in optical modules and coverage of domestic software and AI application firms, showcasing high elasticity [2] - The top three holdings in the Huaxia ChiNext AI ETF are Zhongji Xuchuang (24.78%), Xinyi Sheng (19.40%), and Tianfu Communication (5.11%), with a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.20% [2] - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) tracks the CSI 5G Communication Theme Index, with a scale exceeding 9 billion, focusing on the supply chains of NVIDIA, Apple, and Huawei, and its top five holdings include Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Luxshare Precision, Industrial Fulian, and Zhaoyi Innovation [2]

Market Overview - The market remains in a sideways consolidation phase, with abundant liquidity and no significant outflow signals, providing stability to the major indices [1] - Investors have high expectations for the market in 2026, indicating that the current phase is primarily a layout stage for future opportunities [1] - Technical indicators show a shrinking trading volume, suggesting an increasing wait-and-see atmosphere among investors [1] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index's daily K-line pattern may be forming a small M-top after two peaks, which requires ongoing monitoring [1] - If the index breaks below the neckline, it could lead to a moderate adjustment, with potential declines matching the height from the previous high to the neckline [1] Market Trends - There is a rotation of market hotspots, with short-term impulses driven by thematic stocks, such as shipbuilding and defense industries showing performance on specific days [1] - Recent market speculation around company names has seen rapid declines, with several stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] - Key sectors like AI computing power, new energy batteries, and basic materials continue to attract attention and inflow from major funds [1] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its oscillation and consolidation, focusing on stability [1] - Attention should be paid to changes in intraday hotspots and the matching of trading volume [1] - A small probability exists for a moderate adjustment if the Shanghai Composite Index loses its neckline support [1]

Group 1 - AIGC, AI computing power, and ChatGPT sectors experienced a strong rebound, with stocks like Dongfang Guoxin and BlueFocus rising over 10% [1] - The AI sector is seeing increased capital inflow, with the Huaxia AI ETF (159381) rising 1.82% and the 5G Communication ETF (515050) up 0.61% [1] - Huawei is set to release breakthrough technology in the AI field, potentially increasing the utilization rate of GPU and NPU resources from the industry average of 30%-40% to 70% [1] Group 2 - Bohai Securities noted that the demand side for AI computing power is driven by continued high capital expenditure from cloud vendors and a growing consensus on domestic computing power [1] - Dongguan Securities highlighted that tech giants like Inspur and Huawei are actively developing supernode technology, aiming to create a self-controlled and open domestic computing foundation [2] Group 3 - The Huaxia AI ETF (159381) tracks the ChiNext AI Index and has a significant allocation to optical modules, with the top three holdings being Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [3] - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) focuses on the 5G communication theme index and has a scale exceeding 9 billion, with major holdings including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Luxshare Precision [3]