Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a significant trading volume with a volatile pullback on March 3, 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.68 points, down 1.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14022.39 points, down 3.07%. The ChiNext Index fell by 2.57%, and the STAR Market 50 Index decreased by 5.21%. The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 31,576 billion yuan, continuing to rise compared to the previous day [1][4][7] - Among the 30 first-level industries of CITIC, 4 sectors saw an increase, with oil and petrochemicals, coal, and transportation leading the gains. In contrast, the defense, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors experienced significant declines. Concept indices such as oil and gas extraction, natural gas, and selected shipping performed actively [1][4][7] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.83%, the S&P 500 down 0.94%, and the Nasdaq down 1.02%. Notably, Micron Technology fell nearly 8%, leading the decline in chip stocks. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropped by 3.34%, with companies like Hesai Technology and Kingsoft Cloud experiencing declines of nearly 9% and over 8%, respectively [2][4][7] News Highlights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly issued guidelines to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic components, aiming to transform waste photovoltaic components into valuable resources [3][12] - The National Energy Administration held a symposium on the development of the green fuel industry, emphasizing the need for systematic planning and innovative approaches to enhance competitiveness in the sector [3][13] - Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have raised concerns about the stability of energy supplies, with reports indicating a significant decrease in shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz [3][11][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is mixed across different black building materials sectors. Steel prices are oscillating, iron ore prices face downward pressure despite a small increase, coking coal and coke prices are rising, and thermal coal prices are fluctuating in a narrow range [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures market oscillated upward yesterday. The rebar futures main contract closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3219 yuan/ton. The national steel trading volume was 52,000 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, macro - expectations are more volatile. Building materials are in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory increases and limited upside and downside. Plate production and sales have improved, but high intermediate inventory suppresses price performance [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect oscillation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices rose slightly yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports were basically stable. The total trading volume of iron ore at major national ports was 858,000 tons, a 22.37% increase from the previous day, and the total trading volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 729,000 tons, a 6.42% increase [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the Two Sessions approach, market sentiment is boosted. Supply remains high, and the daily average pig - iron output has increased slightly. High supply and inventory continue to suppress prices, and there is short - term downward pressure [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to be cautiously bearish, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures rose significantly yesterday. For coking coal, pit - mouth prices fluctuated, and imported coal prices were firm. For coke, steel mills' profitability is average, and some northern blast furnaces will be restricted [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, the market rebounded from oversold conditions, with expectations of tightened supply during the Two Sessions and cost - side support restored. For coke, the expectation of reduced production by coking enterprises has increased, and the pressure of high - level inventory accumulation has been alleviated [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: At the production sites, supply increased with the resumption of work, and some pit - mouth prices rose while others fell. At ports, traders were more willing to sell, but actual transactions were limited. Imported coal prices were strong, providing some support [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Post - festival demand has recovered, and affected by the supply issues in the import market, domestic coal prices have continued to rise slightly. In the short term, prices are fluctuating in a narrow range [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].

行 业 研 究 煤炭行业：动力煤价上涨，六大发 电集团日均耗煤量下降 国内动力煤价格上升，国际上澳洲动力煤离岸价格上升。截至 3 月 2 日，秦皇 岛动力煤山西优混 5500 平仓价格 747.00 元/吨，环比上月上升 56 元/吨，涨 幅为 8.10%。内蒙古乌海 Q5500 大卡动力煤车板含税价 596.00 元/吨，环比 上月涨 14 元/吨，涨幅为 2.41%；大同南郊 Q5500 大卡动力煤车板含税价 638.00 元/吨，环比上月上升 44.00 元/吨，涨幅为 7.41%；澳大利亚纽卡斯尔 港 NEWC 动力煤离岸价格 116.10 美元/吨，环比上月上升 6.40 美元/吨，涨幅 为 5.83%。 陕晋蒙三省国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量陕蒙环比上月上升，晋环比上月下降。 1 月国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量：陕西产 2198.50 万吨，同比上升 31.50 万吨， 涨幅为 0.65%，环比上升 47.50 万吨，涨幅为 2.21%；山西产 4879.10 万吨， 同比上升 30.70 万吨，涨幅为 0.63%，环比下降 182.00 万吨，降幅为 3.60%； 内蒙古产 2012.20 万吨，同比下 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the A-share market performance on March 3, 2023, highlighting a significant decline across major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.43% to close at 4122 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.07% and 2.57%, respectively. The total trading volume reached 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][1][1]. Key Points on Industry Performance - **Top Performing Industries**: - Oil and Petrochemicals: +6.75% - Coal: +1.76% - Transportation: +1.13% - Banking: +1.07% - Public Utilities: +0.49% [1][1][1] - **Underperforming Industries**: - Defense and Military: -6.74% - Non-ferrous Metals: -5.61% - Electronics: -5.30% - Computers: -4.94% - Media: -4.29% [1][1][1] Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, released guidelines to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic components, aiming to enhance technology and equipment levels by 2030 [3][3][3]. - In the first week following new policies in the Shanghai real estate market, there was a rapid increase in demand-side activity, with online inquiries rising by 97.6% and conversion rates improving by 180% [3][3][3]. - Qatar Energy, the world's largest natural gas producer, announced a halt in liquefied natural gas exports due to military attacks on its facilities [3][3][3]. Market Outlook and Considerations - The Shanghai Composite Index's recent performance has created a situation of trapped capital and pessimism that will require time to resolve. If the intensity of the U.S.-Iran conflict continues, short-term risk aversion may persist. However, there is no need for excessive pessimism as the current economic resilience and cycle position have improved compared to 2022. The impact of war and high oil prices on inflation affecting AI hardware and other assets is expected to be limited [4][4][4]. - Despite the overall market decline, sectors with solid supply-demand dynamics, such as gas turbines, remain strong. Core assets with robust supply-demand support are crucial indicators. As the Two Sessions approach, the deeply corrected technology growth sector may see a rebound in funding due to policy catalysts [4][4][4]. Recommendations - It is advised to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East and oil price trends, while also paying attention to policy signals from the Two Sessions that may influence market risk appetite [5][5][5].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the coal industry, particularly in the context of China's energy security and supply dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Coal Inventory and Price Trends**: Since January, coal inventories at ports have decreased more than expected, leading to a significant rise in coal prices post-holiday, confirming the domestic supply contraction logic emphasized since September of the previous year [1][2]. 2. **Indonesian Coal Production Cuts**: Although the exact reduction in Indonesian coal production is not finalized, a substantial cut is clearly indicated. The intention is to convert coal resource advantages into cost advantages for high-energy-consuming industries, with a definitive policy to reduce exports [2]. 3. **Future Coal Imports and Pricing**: It is anticipated that coal imports to China will significantly decline after April, with the domestic supply-demand structure expected to revert to 2023 levels. The price of coal is likely to stabilize in the range of 800–1000 RMB per ton [2]. 4. **Impact of Global Oil Prices**: The unpredictability of the end of the conflict and the extent of oil price increases is acknowledged. However, it is clear that rising oil prices will drive up the prices of methanol and other chemical products. China is uniquely positioned with coal chemical alternatives. Following the rise of oil prices above $70 per barrel before the Spring Festival, coal chemical operating rates have increased against the trend [2]. 5. **Energy Security Strategy**: The ongoing conflict will further reinforce China's domestic energy security strategy, elevating the strategic historical status of coal [3]. Additional Important Insights - The emphasis on energy independence is highlighted, with a clear directive that "the energy bowl must be held in our own hands," indicating a shift in policy to prioritize domestic energy production and security [2]. - The acceleration of approvals for coal chemical projects has been noted, with growth rates exceeding 10% over the past three years [2].

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: 北方国际 (Northern International) - **Industry**: Energy, specifically focusing on natural gas and coal markets Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Energy Crisis on Commodity Prices** The ongoing energy crisis, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions such as the US-Israel conflict, has significantly increased commodity prices, particularly natural gas. Qatar Energy, the world's largest LNG producer, has halted production due to military attacks, leading to a surge in European and Asian natural gas prices. As of March 2, 2026, the European LNG benchmark price (TTF) for April futures closed at €44.5 per megawatt-hour, reflecting a 39.26% increase [1] 2. **Croatian Electricity Market Integration** The Croatian electricity market has become deeply integrated into the Central European energy landscape. The rising TTF natural gas futures prices due to geopolitical tensions are expected to continue pushing Croatian electricity market prices upward. The previous round of the Russia-Ukraine conflict had already driven European electricity prices higher, with the Croatian project reporting over 400 million in profits for the year 2022. There is a focus on the potential earnings elasticity for this year [1] 3. **Expectations for Coking Coal Prices** There is an anticipated upward trend in coking coal prices due to the global energy crisis, which may trigger energy substitution mechanisms. As of March 2, 2026, the DCE coking coal price was at 1,094 yuan per ton, showing low-level fluctuations. The company operates an integrated model in Mongolia encompassing mining services, logistics, customs warehousing, and coking coal trading, with sales prices anchored to domestic coking coal futures and port spot indices. As coking coal prices and trade volumes are expected to bottom out by 2025, the company's profits may increase as prices rise [2][3] 4. **Bangladesh Thermal Power Project Progress** The Bodouakali coal-fired power plant project in Bangladesh is nearing completion, with the EPC engineering construction progress at 99.90% as of December 31, 2025. The first unit has completed reliability operations and is ready for commercial operation, while the second unit has completed all network-related tests. If the project transitions to operational status in early 2026, it is expected to contribute significantly to profits [3] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for profit elasticity in the Croatian wind power project is highlighted, indicating a strategic focus on renewable energy amidst rising fossil fuel prices [1] - The integrated operational model in Mongolia may provide a competitive advantage in the coking coal market, allowing for better price management and profit realization as market conditions improve [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On March 3, 2026, the A-share market showed a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.07%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.57%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 3.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 111.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures showed different trends, and the market was affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, international situations, and weather conditions [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On March 3, the A-share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4122.68 points, down 1.43%; the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 14022.39 points, down 3.07%; and the ChiNext Index closing at 3209.48 points, down 2.57%. The trading volume reached 3.16 trillion yuan, up 111.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was weak on March 3, closing at 4655.90, a decrease of 72.77 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 3, the weighted index of coke fluctuated widely, closing at 1703.5, up 56.0 from the previous day [2]. - The weighted index of coking coal was strong on March 3, closing at 1147.2 yuan, up 44.1 from the previous day [3]. - Coking profit is average, and daily production has a slight increase. Coke inventory has a slight decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is average. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is 1346 vehicles. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work in coal mines. The production of coking coal mines has decreased significantly in the early stage. The spot auction transactions have gradually increased during the week, and the transaction prices have mainly decreased slightly. The terminal inventory has decreased significantly, and there may be a certain degree of replenishment after the Spring Festival. The total inventory of coking coal has decreased significantly, and the production - end inventory has decreased significantly [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices and abundant spot supply, the US sugar fluctuated widely and closed slightly lower on Monday. Due to the downward adjustment of the spot quotation and the large short - term increase affected by the technical side, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated lower on Tuesday. Affected by short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward at night. The industry organization ISMA said that as of February, the sugar production in India in the current market year (starting from October 2025) reached 24.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.43% [4]. Rubber - The escalation of the US - Iran dispute led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The market was worried about whether the global economy would decline, and the global capital market declined significantly. Affected by this and the large increase in futures prices recently, long - position liquidation pressured the Shanghai rubber to oscillate and decline on Tuesday. Affected by the concern about the possible global economic recession, the Shanghai rubber continued to oscillate downward at night. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, an increase of 12,200 tons from the previous period, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89% [4]. Vegetable Oil and Related Products - The international crude oil market rose strongly due to the war, and the spill - over effect of the oil price increase strongly boosted the vegetable oil market. As of last Thursday, Brazil had harvested 39% of its soybeans, with the harvest progress slower than the same period in previous years. The agency predicted that the soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 would reach 178 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 181 million tons due to the yield loss in Rio Grande do Sul caused by drought [5]. - On March 3, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2836 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.35%. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has risen rapidly, the soybean meal inventory has increased, the downstream enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, so the spot price has continuously declined under pressure. The US soybeans remain at a high level, and the cost side still provides support for soybean meal [5]. Livestock (Pig) - On March 3, the main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The supply of suitable - weight live pigs in March shows a loose trend, and the demand for fat pigs is in the off - season. The risk of holding pigs for sale in the market has increased, which has increased the enthusiasm of the breeding side for capacity reduction. The price - holding mentality of retail farmers and group pig enterprises has loosened, and the slaughter rhythm of some leading pig enterprises has accelerated. The supply capacity of suitable - weight standard pigs and medium - large pigs is sufficient. Coupled with the high inventory of breeding sows in the country, the production capacity base supports sufficient supply. At the same time, the breeding efficiency continues to improve, further amplifying the effective supply. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly. On the demand side, the pork consumption after the festival has entered the annual off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are not smooth, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, the demand - side carrying capacity is weak, and the support for pig prices is insufficient. Overall, the live pig market is still in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [5]. Palm Oil - On March 3, the overall trend of oils continued to rise. The palm oil futures gapped up and rose for three consecutive days. By the afternoon close, the main contract of palm oil P2605 closed with a positive line with short upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 9028, the lowest price was 8926, and the closing price was 8994, an increase of 1.08% from the previous trading day. As of February 27, 2026 (Week 9), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas across the country was 786,700 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons from the previous week, an increase of 11.37%; compared with 414,600 tons in the same period last year, it increased by 372,100 tons, an increase of 89.75% [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 102,100 yuan/ton, opened at 103,320, reached a maximum of 103,630, a minimum of 101,270, with a trading volume of 177,900 lots, a position of 198,000 lots, and a settlement price of 102,410 yuan/ton. It opened low and moved lower within the day, oscillating downward. The outer - market London copper and US copper also weakened synchronously, and the inner and outer markets resonated and corrected. The US dollar rebounded, and the funds at the previous high took profits and left the market. Coupled with the downstream's resistance to high prices, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was about 101,725 yuan/ton, with a discount of 375 yuan/ton to the main contract. The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly and remained at a high level overall. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of terminal work and the release of orders, the change of inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the disturbance of macro and geopolitical situations to market sentiment [5]. Iron Ore - On March 2, the main contract of iron ore 2605 oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.67% and a closing price of 753.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments continued to rise this period, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory was at a historical high, and the molten iron output maintained an increasing trend. However, some steel mills were restricted during the Two Sessions, so the short - term iron ore price was in an oscillating trend [5]. Asphalt - On March 2, the main contract of asphalt 2604 oscillated and rose, with a gain of 4.69% and a closing price of 3639 yuan. Recently, some refineries in the region plan to resume production, the supply is expected to increase, the inventory pressure has increased, the downstream rigid demand is weak, and the demand recovery is slow. The short - term asphalt price shows an oscillating trend [5][6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2605 opened at 801 on Tuesday, with a minimum of 797, a maximum of 804, and a closing price of 799.5, with a daily reduction of 46 lots. On March 3, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Attention should be paid to the spot - end price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [6]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15,160 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. The cotton inventory increased by 44 lots compared with the previous trading day. The growth of new cotton in Australia is generally good, and most producing areas have entered the late development stage. However, since the area of dry - land crops has decreased compared with previous years, timely rainfall is needed to achieve the expected yield [6]. Steel - On March 3, rb2605 closed at 3074 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3219 yuan/ton. The situation in the Middle East is tense, but the impact on the domestic black - series market is relatively limited. The market is still trading on the expectations of the Two Sessions and the supply - demand structure relationship in the industrial end. As the downstream terminal market gradually resumes work, the rigid - demand replenishment increases, and the market speculation sentiment has heated up. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point and the driving force of policies [6]. Alumina - On March 3, ao2605 closed at 2807 yuan/ton. The ore price has continued to decline, and the cost support for alumina has weakened. Since the beginning of this year, there have been successive production cuts on the alumina supply side, and the pressure of oversupply has been slightly relieved, but the overall oversupply pattern has not changed. At the same time, the total inventory of alumina has continued to accumulate, suppressing the price, and the upward space of the main contract is limited. On the demand side, the market consumption enthusiasm is not high after the festival, the resumption process of alumina enterprises is slow, and some markets are still on holiday. The resumption situation needs to be observed after the Lantern Festival [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On March 3, al2604 closed at 23,905 yuan/ton. Overseas, attention is continuously paid to the evolution of the situation in the Middle East. The transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, the shipping cost has increased significantly, and the energy facilities in Middle - Eastern countries also have certain safety risks. The market is worried about disturbing the aluminum supply - demand balance, and the risk - aversion sentiment is still relatively strong. In China, the Two Sessions are approaching, and the market is concerned about the subsequent guidance. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the molten aluminum ratio remains at a low level during the year, the backlogged and in - transit goods continue to be transported, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, the performance continues to improve. The receiving of goods in all major downstream consumption areas has improved to a certain extent, and there is a certain mentality of buying on the rise. The downstream continues to resume work, the receiving of goods increases, and the overall trading atmosphere improves [6].

Group 1 - The report indicates that external disturbances have led to a market decline, particularly due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about oil supply [2][8] - The A-share market showed resilience in the morning but ultimately closed lower, with all three major indices experiencing declines, highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks on market sentiment [2][5] - Defensive funds have concentrated their investments in sectors like oil and gas, while growth stocks in technology, media, and tourism have faced significant pressure [2][8] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the recent escalation of the US-Iran conflict has altered market dynamics rather than reversing the underlying bull market [2][8] - It suggests maintaining a watchful stance in the short term, focusing on signals such as the clarification of the conflict, signs of market stabilization, and policy signals from upcoming domestic meetings [2][8] - The report advocates for identifying undervalued quality stocks during market turbulence, positioning for opportunities once the situation stabilizes [3][8]

2026 年 03 月 04 日 商 品 研 究 焦炭：震荡偏强 | | | JM2605 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 1127 | 涨跌(元/吨) 33 | 涨跌幅 3.0% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1694 | 42 | 2.5% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 1151632 | 506242 | -39301 | | | | 12605 | 25286 | 39194 | -1180 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1520 1483 | 1520 1483 | 0 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1120 | 1120 | 0 | | | | 吕梁中疏肥煤 | 1400 | 1400 | 0 | | 现货价格 | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1180 | 1197 | -17 | | | 焦煤仓单 | 吕梁中阳中硫王焦 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The upward support for thermal coal is insufficient, and the short - term price will fluctuate within a narrow range [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **产地价格**：The price of Shanxi Datong 5500 is 603 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous period and 45 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 is 544 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 59 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Shaanxi Yulin 5800 is 602 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous period and 45 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - **港口价格**：The price of Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 753 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 67 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q5000 is 672 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 80 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Q4500 is 584 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 61 yuan/ton from the same period last year [1] - **海外价格**：The price of Indonesian FOB Q3800 is 61 dollars/ton, up 0.7 dollars/ton from the previous period and 10 dollars/ton from the same period last year; the price of Australian FOB Q5500 is 86.1 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period and up 10.1 dollars/ton from the same period last year [1] - **2月长协价格**：The price of port Q5500 is 680 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous period and 11 yuan/ton from the same period last year; the price of Shanxi Q5500 is 517 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Shaanxi Q5500 is 461 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous period; the price of Western Inner Mongolia Q5500 is 431 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous period [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of thermal coal (based on the spot price of thermal coal at northern ports) is 0 [2] 3.3 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, the market of northern ports was sluggish, with weak upward momentum in quotes. Some high - sulfur coal varieties had quotes below the index, and overall trading was limited. With the resumption of production in coal mines and the recovery of shipments, port inventories increased. Some early profit - taking traders were more willing to sell to realize profits, while downstream demand was low and sales were difficult. Considering the price inversion of imported coal and the tense international situation, the price is not likely to fall or the decline will be limited. In the imported thermal coal market, the ocean freight for imports soared, increasing costs [2] - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) set the domestic market obligation (DMO) coal supply target for 2026 at 247.9 million tons, slightly lower than the actual supply of 254 million tons in 2025. Bloomberg reported that the preliminary coal production target for Indonesia in 2026 is 733 million tons, but this figure will be adjusted according to production cuts [2]