| 赣州市豪鹏科技有限公司 | | | | | 2024 | 年度 1-6 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 月财务报表附注 | | | | | | | | | | | 本期发生额 | | | 上年发 | | 生额 | | | | | | | | _210347 | 项 | 目_210347 | | | | | | | | | 收入 | 成本 | 收 | | | 入 | 成本 | | | | | | | 交通运输业 | | | | | | | | 销售业务 | | | 95,910,801.55 | 84,535,179.28 | 227,626,967.66 | | | 205,747,278.98 | | | | | | | | 利息收入 | | | 165,895.26 | | 396,065.77 | | | 让售材料 | | | 14,101,599.70 | 13,832,991.63 | 15,687,772.92 | | | 13,385,413.40 | | | | | | | | 其他 | | | 290,078.19 | 68 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by factors such as US - China tariff negotiations, inflation data, and supply - demand dynamics in various industries. For most products, short - term price movements are affected by macro - level events, while long - term trends are determined by fundamental supply - demand relationships [2][3][18]. - In the financial derivatives market, some products may present trading opportunities based on current price levels, market sentiment, and expected future developments. For example, in the stock index futures market, there are suggestions to sell put options or use certain hedging strategies; in the bond market, short - term observation is recommended, and curve - steepening strategies can be considered [4][6]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Tuesday, A - shares opened higher and then declined, with major indices showing mixed performance. Some sectors like shipping, ports, and daily chemicals rose, while aerospace, heavy machinery, and computer hardware declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also had different price movements, with all of them in a state of basis discount [2][3]. - News: Domestically, there are disputes over US tariffs on fentanyl. Overseas, the US April CPI was lower than expected, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts [3]. - Capital: On May 13, A - share trading volume was basically unchanged, with a total turnover of 1.29 trillion. The central bank conducted 1800 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: With the support of policies and relatively stable index bottoms, one can sell put options at support levels to earn premiums, or go long on the September IM contract at low prices and sell call options with an exercise price of 6400 for hedging [4]. Bond Futures - Market performance: Most bond futures contracts closed higher. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 1800 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan. Deposit - type institutional repo rates showed different trends [6]. - Operation suggestion: Given the current situation of relatively reasonable bond yields and the potential negative impact on exports, short - term bond futures may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see, pay attention to changes in the capital and economic data, and consider curve - steepening strategies [6]. Precious Metals - Market review: Due to repeated trade conflicts between the US and other countries, continued slowdown of US inflation, and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, precious metals prices rebounded slightly. Gold reached $3249.52 per ounce, up 0.44%, and silver closed at $32.894 per ounce, up 0.91% [9]. - Future outlook: Gold has long - term upward drivers, but in the short - term, the Fed's cautious attitude towards rate cuts and the impact of economic data may affect prices. Silver is affected by industrial demand and may have a volatile price range. Option double - selling strategies can be considered [9][10]. - Capital: Global gold ETF demand increased significantly in Q1, but short - term risk - aversion demand has weakened [11]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot: The quotes of leading shipping companies in May were relatively stable [12]. - Index: As of May 12, the SCFIS European Line Index decreased by 5.54%, while the US West Coast Line Index increased by 10.19%. The SCFI Composite Index increased by 0.321% [12]. - Fundamentals: As of May 14, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.7% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed different trends [13]. - Logic: The futures market was volatile, with the 08 contract being strong. Due to the US - China tariff agreement, the peak - season expectation in August is recovering. If the overflow of shipping capacity is eliminated, the price of the August contract may exceed 2000 points [13]. - Operation suggestion: Consider going long on the August contract or using positive - spread strategies for 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 contracts [13]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of May 13, copper prices declined slightly, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [13]. - Macro: US inflation slowed down, increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts and boosting metal prices. The US - China tariff situation and the "232" investigation on copper also affect copper prices [14][15]. - Supply: Copper concentrate TC continued to decline, but domestic electrolytic copper production increased. It is expected to continue to increase in May [16]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper rod processing and wire - cable enterprises decreased due to holidays, and the export production schedule of home appliances declined [17]. - Inventory: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased [17]. - Logic: The short - term price may fluctuate. The strong current fundamentals limit the decline of copper prices, while the weak demand expectation restricts the upward space [18]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77500 - 79500 yuan/ton [18]. Zinc - Spot: On May 13, zinc prices declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was low [18]. - Supply: Zinc ore processing fees remained high, but there were risks in the mining end. Refined zinc production increased in April but was lower than expected [19]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries increased due to the low - base effect of the holiday, but the overall demand was still for rigid - need procurement. Terminal demand was affected by tariffs [20][21]. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased [21]. - Logic: The short - term price may be supported by the relaxation of tariffs. In the long - term, the price may decline if terminal consumption is insufficient, or it may maintain a high - level shock if the supply growth is lower than expected [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 23500 yuan/ton [22]. Tin - Spot: On May 13, tin prices declined slightly, and the market trading was average [22]. - Supply: The import of tin ore decreased, but the import of tin ingots increased. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve in July [23][24]. - Demand and inventory: The operating rate of solder increased in March, mainly due to policy support for the semiconductor industry. The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The improvement of macro - sentiment may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand expectation, short - selling can be tried in the range of 265000 - 270000 yuan/ton [24]. - Operation suggestion: Try short - selling in the range of 265000 - 270000 yuan/ton [24]. Nickel - Spot: As of May 13, nickel prices declined [24]. - Supply: Refined nickel production was at a high level and continued to increase in April. The planned production in May was slightly lower [25]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries was relatively stable, and the demand from the military and shipbuilding alloy industries was good. The demand for nickel sulfate was affected by cobalt and high - ice nickel production [25][26]. - Inventory: Overseas inventory decreased slightly, domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and bonded - area inventory remained stable [26]. - Logic: The short - term market may fluctuate. The improvement of macro - sentiment and cost support limit the decline, while the long - term supply increase restricts the upward space [27]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 122000 - 128000 yuan/ton [27]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of May 13, stainless - steel prices increased slightly, and the basis increased [28]. - Raw materials: Nickel ore supply was tight, and nickel - iron prices were weak [28]. - Supply: The planned production of stainless - steel in May decreased slightly compared with April [28]. - Inventory: Social inventory remained stable, and warehouse receipts decreased [29]. - Logic: The short - term market may fluctuate. The support from raw materials and the improvement of macro - sentiment are offset by the supply - demand contradiction [30]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton [30]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of May 13, lithium - carbonate prices remained stable, and lithium - hydroxide prices declined slightly [32]. - Supply: Lithium - carbonate production decreased in April but is expected to increase slightly in May. The overall supply pressure is still high [33]. - Demand: The overall demand is average, and the demand may face pressure in the off - season [33]. - Inventory: The overall inventory is still high, and the upstream inventory is accumulating [34][35]. - Logic: The short - term price may fluctuate weakly. The supply - demand contradiction is obvious, and the demand elasticity has a greater impact on short - term trends [35]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 62000 - 66000 yuan/ton [35]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices remained stable, and futures contracts were at a discount to the spot [36]. - Supply: Iron - element production increased slightly, while the production of five major steel products decreased [36]. - Demand: The apparent demand decreased significantly, and the impact of tariffs on demand needs attention. Steel exports remained at a high level [37]. - Inventory: Due to the May Day holiday, the inventory of five major steel products increased [37]. - Cost and profit: Coke prices decreased, and blast - furnace steel mills had certain profits, while electric - arc - furnace steel mills had losses [38]. - Viewpoint: The reduction of tariffs may improve the demand expectation. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels of the 10 - month contract [38]. Iron Ore - Spot: Mainstream iron - ore powder prices declined slightly [39]. - Futures: The main iron - ore contract increased slightly [39]. - Demand: The daily average production of hot metal remained at a high level, and the blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly [39]. - Supply: Global iron - ore shipments increased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased [39]. - Inventory: Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel - mill inventory decreased [40]. - Viewpoint: The short - term valuation of iron ore may be repaired, but in the long - term, a bearish view is recommended [41]. Coke - Spot and futures: Coke prices declined, and the spread between the 9 - month and 1 - month contracts remained unchanged. Steel mills proposed to lower coke prices [42]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke was 1 yuan/ton [42]. - Supply: Coke production decreased slightly [42]. - Demand: Coke demand increased slightly [43]. - Inventory: Coke inventory decreased [44]. - Viewpoint: The short - term price may decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke [45]. Coking Coal - Spot and futures: Coking coal prices declined, and the spread between the 9 - month and 1 - month contracts remained unchanged. The market had a large hedging pressure [46]. - Supply: Domestic coal production increased, and the import volume of Mongolian coal increased slightly [48]. - Demand: The demand from downstream industries increased slightly, and the procurement was mainly for rigid needs [48]. - Inventory: The total inventory decreased, but the coal - mine inventory increased [48]. - Viewpoint: The short - term price may decline. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal [48]. Ferrosilicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas remained stable or increased slightly [49]. - Futures: On May 13, the ferrosilicon contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased [49]. - Cost and profit: The cost of raw materials remained stable, and the profit was negative [49]. - Supply: The production of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the supply pressure was relieved [49]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry decreased slightly, and the price of magnesium increased [50]. - Viewpoint: The price may stabilize and rebound, but the trend is lack of momentum [51]. Manganese Silicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas increased slightly [52]. - Futures: On May 13, the manganese - silicon contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased [52]. - Cost: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the profit was negative [52]. - Manganese Ore: The global shipments of manganese ore decreased, and the port inventory increased [53]. - Supply: The production of manganese silicon decreased [53]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry decreased slightly [54]. - Viewpoint: The short - term price may fluctuate and then rebound, but the trend is lack of momentum [55]. Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: On May 13, domestic soybean - meal prices declined, and the trading volume decreased. The trading volume of rapeseed - meal was 3600 tons [56]. - Fundamentals: The US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report was favorable for US soybeans, but the ideal planting weather in the US Midwest and the abundant supply from Brazil put pressure on prices [56][57]. - Outlook: The US - China trade tension eased, and US soybeans showed signs of recovery. Attention should be paid to the performance of soybean meal around 2900 yuan/ton [57]. Live Pigs - Spot: The spot price of live pigs was stable [58]. - Market Data: The inventory of breeding sows increased slightly in April, and the performance of sows and fattening pigs improved [58][59]. - Outlook: The short - term price may remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the performance of secondary fattening and slaughter [59]. Corn - Spot Price: On May 13, corn prices in Northeast China and North China showed different trends, and port prices were mixed [60]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of grains in Guangzhou ports decreased, and the corn inventory increased year - on - year [60]. - Outlook: The short - term price may fluctuate, and the long - term trend is positive. It is recommended to go long on dips [61]. Sugar - Market Analysis: The international raw - sugar price may fluctuate between 17 - 20 cents/pound. The domestic sugar supply is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton [62]. - Fundamentals: The sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in April showed different trends, and the domestic sugar production increased [62].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views - The plastics market is affected by factors such as increased supply from new capacity and reduced downstream demand, but the sentiment is boosted by Sino - US trade negotiations, suggesting that short positions should gradually stop profit and exit [3] - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus pattern continues, with futures prices hitting new lows and limited room for spot price decline, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [5] - The short - term copper price is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards, affected by Sino - US negotiations and supply - demand fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data [10] - Crude oil supply is under pressure, demand growth is expected to slow down, and it is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions [11][13] - For asphalt, under the situation of weak supply and demand, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [14] - PP is expected to oscillate, with downstream demand recovery slow and new orders limited, but market sentiment is boosted by trade negotiations [15][16] - PVC is still under pressure, but it is recommended to gradually stop profit on short positions due to improved macro - sentiment [17] - Urea prices are expected to oscillate upwards, but the upward space is restricted by policies [18][19] Summary by Variety Plastics - Supply: Yulong Petrochemical's overhauled devices restarted, and new capacity was put into production, but some devices were also under maintenance [3] - Demand: PE downstream开工率 decreased, with agricultural film entering the off - season and other demand being average [3] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [3] - Recommendation: Gradually stop profit on short positions [3] Carbonate Lithium - Price: The futures price hit a new low, and the spot price is close to the bottom [4][5] - Supply: Production in Jiangxi is stable, while the northern region's开工率 has decreased significantly [5] - Demand: Positive electrode production is expected to increase in May and then enter the off - season, and the impact of US tariffs on global demand may be limited [5] - Inventory: There is a slight reduction in inventory [5] - Recommendation: Wait and see [5] Copper - Price: Affected by Sino - US negotiations and the US dollar, it is expected to oscillate upwards in the short term [9][10] - Supply: The supply of copper ore is tight, and there are many smelter maintenance plans in May and July - September [10] - Demand: Downstream demand shows resilience, with cable enterprise开工率 and orders increasing [10] - Recommendation: Pay attention to the US CPI data [10] Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + is gradually increasing production, and US production is at a high level, with large supply pressure [11] - Demand: The growth rate of global demand is expected to slow down [11] - Recommendation: Stop profit on previous short positions [13] Asphalt - Supply:开工率 has rebounded, and production is expected to increase in May [14] - Demand: Downstream开工率 is uneven, and actual demand needs to be restored [14] - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio has slightly increased, still at a low level in recent years [14] - Recommendation: Wait and see [14] PP - Supply: New production capacity is put into production, and there are more maintenance devices, with enterprise开工率 at a relatively low level [15] - Demand: Downstream开工率 continues to decline, and new orders are limited [15][16] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [15] - Recommendation: Expected to oscillate [16] PVC - Supply:开工率 has increased, and spring maintenance scale is less than last year [17] - Demand: Downstream开工率 is still low, and exports are affected by policies [17] - Inventory: Social inventory is still high [17] - Recommendation: Gradually stop profit on short positions [17] Urea - Supply:开工率 is stable, and some enterprises are resuming production [18] - Demand: Agricultural fertilization is cautious, and compound fertilizer factory开工率 may decline [18][19] - Inventory: Inventory is being reduced [18] - Recommendation: Prices are expected to oscillate upwards, but be cautious of risks [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: The soybean market is influenced by international production and domestic supply - demand. The soybean oil 2509 contract may have short - term range - bound oscillations, and the soybean meal may experience short - term oscillations. The domestic soybean oil mid - term de - stocking cycle may end, and inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price will maintain a relatively strong performance in the short term due to supply tightness and weak demand [2]. - **Copper**: The copper price's monthly K - line shows a balance between yin and yang. In the short term, investors can try to enter the market based on the moving average system [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium 2507 contract may have a weak - side oscillation, and investors can short at high prices. The cost support is weakening, and the price is under pressure [4][5]. - **Steel**: The steel fundamentals are gradually improving, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market. Investors can consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts after May [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. They will have a low - level weak - side oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has a mix of long and short factors. The 2509 contract will have short - term oscillations [8]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has oscillations. In the medium - long term, the price center will move down, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel [9]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is mainly driven by fundamentals, with a loose supply - demand situation globally. It is running weakly, and investors can pay attention to the support at around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10][11]. - **PVC**: The demand for PVC is weak, and the futures price may have low - level oscillations [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and the futures market will have wide - range oscillations in the short term [13]. 3. Summary by Product Soybean and Related Products - **Spot Information**: The price of Rizhao Jiji first - grade soybean oil is 8,080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 43 - protein soybean meal prices in different regions have declined [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest, and the US soybean production is expected to change. Domestically, the supply of soybean oil may increase, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [1]. Corn - **Spot Information**: Different regions have different corn acquisition prices, such as 2,194 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia and 2,439 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of the Sino - US tariff dispute on the corn market is limited. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage and weak demand [2]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,060 - 78,490 yuan, up 70 yuan, with a discount of 50 - premium of 20 [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff negotiation has made progress, and domestic policies are supportive. However, the raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory is rapidly declining [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is priced at 65,250 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan, and the industrial - grade is 63,550 yuan/ton, also down 450 yuan [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is high, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai rebar price is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The iron ore Platts index is 98.6, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 756 yuan [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand factors are mixed, and the market is affected by the US tariff policy [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts boost the price, but the OPEC+ production increase and trade - war concerns affect the price. The medium - long - term price center will move down [9]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided comprehensively in the text. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is loose, and the demand may be suppressed by the US auto tariff [10][11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,650 yuan/ton, and the ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing slightly [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,416.88 yuan/ton, unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory is increasing, and the demand is average. The market will have wide - range oscillations [13].

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the caustic soda in the alumina industry chain is "Long" [1] - The investment rating for alumina in the alumina industry chain is "Bullish" [3] - The investment rating for aluminum in the alumina industry chain is "Oscillating Bullish" [4] 2. Core Views - For caustic soda, influenced by the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the futures price continues to rise, with good fundamentals. There may be a short - term correction after a significant increase, and a long - term bullish view is maintained, with short - term prices expected to oscillate slightly [1] - For alumina, the industry's supply - demand situation has improved, supporting the price. It is expected that the alumina price will oscillate slightly higher in the short term, and the actual production capacity changes should be monitored [3] - For aluminum, due to the improvement of international trade and domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals, the aluminum price is supported. After the release of the US April CPI data, the market sentiment may change. The continuous decline of domestic aluminum ingot inventory has raised some concerns, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract rose during the day, fell after the night - session opening, and closed at 2533 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.85%. The trading volume was 70.64 million lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day; the open interest was 2.046 million lots, an increase of 23,450 lots; the trading volume was 52.676 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous trading day [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - The weekly caustic soda operating rate was 85.39%, a 0.22% increase from the previous week - The weekly domestic caustic soda output was 829,500 tons, a 0.22% increase from the previous week - The weekly domestic factory inventory was 249,100 tons, a 1.66% decrease from the previous week - The weekly cost per hundred tons was 182.51 yuan/ton, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week; the gross profit per hundred tons was 1,189.8 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease from the previous week [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - The average price of the domestic 32% liquid caustic soda market was 950.46 yuan/ton, a 3.48 - yuan or 0.37% increase from the previous statistical day. The domestic liquid caustic soda spot market transaction price continued to rise. The North China market had good transactions, supported by alumina demand orders and recent chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, with a good supply - demand situation. Other regions had stable transactions, with low inventory pressure and active sales [1] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold low - position long orders [1] 3.2 Alumina 3.2.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract rose in the afternoon, slightly declined at night, and closed at 2832 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.60%. The trading volume was 95.49 million lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; the open interest was 3.842 million lots, a decrease of 1735 lots; the trading volume was 53.764 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Last week, the domestic alumina factory inventory was 1.585 million tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week; the market inventory was 76,000 tons, a 52% increase from the previous week - This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.6374 million tons, a 4.6% decrease from the previous week, and the weekly operating utilization rate was 77.2%, a 7.36% decrease - The average reference production cash cost of the domestic alumina industry was 3332.86 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week; the industry gross profit was - 436.59 yuan/ton, a 1.19% increase from the previous week [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The average price of the spot market was 2905.71 yuan/ton, an 11.68 - yuan or 0.40% increase from the previous trading day. The spot market inventory continued to decline, and the spot transaction price was at a premium to the futures price. The overall supply has not changed recently, and the industry operating rate remained at 78.25%. The spot market transactions increased recently, with prices ranging from 2900 - 2960 yuan/ton, boosting market sentiment. Overseas, the alumina market supply was tight, supporting price increases, but the domestic alumina export advantage was limited, and the import - export pattern has not changed in the short term [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Sell put options [3] 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2506 contract continued to rise, jumped and then corrected at night, and closed at 19,935 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The trading volume was 40.43 million lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day; the open interest was 5.492 million lots, a decrease of 22,204 lots; the trading volume was 39.866 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous trading day [4] 3.3.2 Important Information - The weekly bauxite output was 1.124 million tons, a 1.72% increase from the previous week - The weekly electrolytic aluminum output was 84.07 tons, unchanged from the previous week - This week, the industry production cost was 16,794.64 yuan/ton, a 0.65% decrease from the previous week. The industry average gross profit was 2876.67 yuan/ton, a 7.33% decrease from the previous week - The factory inventory during the week was 55,200 tons, a 14.95% decrease from the previous week; the market inventory was 65,200 tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week; the LME inventory was 403,500 tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 65,000 tons, a 1.65% decrease from the previous week - On May 9th, the LME aluminum price rose, ranging from 2399 - 2440 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2418 US dollars/ton, up 9.5 US dollars/ton or 0.39% [4] 3.3.3 Market Logic - The international trade situation has improved significantly, with the easing of Sino - US tariffs and a positive international macro - situation, boosting commodity prices, and both domestic and foreign aluminum prices have risen. Domestically, the aluminum ingot inventory has decreased again. According to the CPCA, the cumulative retail sales of new - energy passenger cars from January to April were 3.324 million units, a 35.7% increase, and new - energy vehicle consumption continues to support the rise of the aluminum price. Domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals support the aluminum price [4] 3.3.4 Trading Strategy - Sell put options [4]

淡旺季切换，价格上方压力加大 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国经济数据超预期，通胀预期走强，降息预期推迟；国内降准降息预期落地；中美贸易谈判进行中。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 第一部分 核心观点 供给：4月，在产产能环比减少390万吨，开工率大幅下滑；矿石端，国内到港量维持正常，澳大利亚雨季影响结束 进口： 2025年3月中国氧化铝净出口28.88万吨，环比大幅增加，连续12个月净出口；进口亏损周度环比略有走阔，进出口通道仍处于关闭 需求：电解铝在产产能持续增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝目前冶炼成本在每吨2866，每吨盈利59元，成本变化不大，利润略有走阔；烧碱价格最新价3480元/吨，周度环比无变化 产业面，铝土矿量维持正常，较历史同期偏高，矿价周度环比大幅下滑，冶炼亏损转正，预计冶炼产能会得到恢复；进口亏损小幅收敛，但进出 口通道仍处于关闭状态，出口需求偏弱；盘面仓单维持在高位，远期产量压力较大。综合来看，矿价大 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 低库存下，宏观回暖或推升有色 核心观点 铜：宏观回暖，产业低库存，铜价或持续走强 上周沪铜主力期价整体在 7.7-7.8 万区间震荡，周中一度突破 7.8 万关口，随后冲高回落。5 月 8 日 Mysteel 数据显示，电解铜社 会库存为 12.64 万吨，较去年同期下降 27.66 万吨。产业低库存给予 铜价支撑，月差持续走强。宏观层面，国内降准降息等宏观政策刺 激，海外中美在瑞达成重要共识。预计铜价在宏观和产业利好共振之 下将向上突破，关注 7.9-8 万关口压力。此外，库存外高内低或使期 价表现内强外弱 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-12 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-12 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 中美达成重要共识，会谈取得实质性进展 观点分享： 中美经贸高层会谈 5 月 10 日至 11 日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院 副总理何立峰当地时间 11 日晚在出席中方代表团举行的新闻发布会时表示，此次中美经贸高 层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中 美经贸磋商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声 明。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 国债期货 | ★★★★ | 国债期货：债市上周维持高位震荡，符合我们前期观点。5 月 7 日国新办一行一局一会会议 推出一揽子政策，宣布降准 0.5%，7 天逆回购利率调降 0.1%同时将带动后续 LPR 下调。会 议上亦介绍了其他结构性工具的调整与其他资本市场、实体经济的支持政策。受相关政策影 响，上周利率曲线有所走陡。4 月进出口数据全面好于预期，尽管对美出口收缩，但一带一 ...