证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 12 11 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 11 月 CPI 涨幅扩大，PPI 降幅小幅走阔 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】可选消费亮点不少—CPI 三连升的背后——20251210 【固定收益】菜价推升 CPI——20251210 ◼ 研究视点 【电力】新能源新格局：解码 19 省机制电价竞价结果——20251210 【宏观】可选消费亮点不少—CPI 三连升的背后 作者 | 分析师 | 张一鸣 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522070009 | | | | | 邮箱：zhangyiming@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 14.0% | 19.3% | 91.1% | | 综合 | 6.4% | 5.9% | 46.2% | | 国防军工 | 3.9% | 4.9% | 15.1% | | 轻工制造 | 2.1% | 3.3% | 10.6% | | 机械设备 | 1.6% | 4.3% ...

坚定而持续的股市财富效应是我国经济转型非常重要的方面，目前我国的消费占比仍然较少。坚定而 持续的财富效应目前只能在股市看到，而2021年前面的20年，房地产作为居民财富保值增值几乎是 唯一的载体，这种情况大概率正在退出历史舞台。 资瑞兴董事长汪忠远表示："我从业30多年，职业生涯和财富与股市攸关，有那么多好公司在几十年来 从小长到大，这是我们赖以生存的根本，虽然它也有很多毛病，但现在越来越多高净值客户都觉得股市 是相对最公平的资产。从机制来说，我们也中了很强的'卵巢彩票'。" 凯文·凯利多次在公开预测中提到，中国将成为"酷中国"。如果中国真变成很酷国家，那么中国文化将横 扫全球，那时很多代表"软实力"的消费类公司就会成为全球性的大市值公司。事实上，我们当前已经看 到很多矿业公司、电力设备公司、交通工具公司等"硬实力"公司正在成为全球性公司。 哈佛大学有个预测，00后们的预期寿命至少50%都在百岁以上。我们这批70年代很多人的寿命可能都 在90岁以上，那么我们的财富规划其实是一个非常重要的事情。 "假设在2015年10月时有个先知跟我说：'汪忠远，你现在出来创设个私募产品，现在上证指数3500 点，未来10年也 ...

Company Overview - Chaozhou Keling Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 100,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Chen Posheng [1] Business Scope - The company engages in various services including industrial design, information technology consulting, and research and development of intelligent robots [1] - It also involves sales of intelligent robots, artificial intelligence application software, and hardware [1] - The company is involved in the research and sales of mechanical equipment and components, as well as the manufacturing and retail of hardware products [1] - Additionally, it manufactures and sells non-road leisure vehicles and their parts, bicycles, and electric bicycles [1] - The company is engaged in the research and sales of automotive parts and accessories, along with import and export activities [1]

Group 1 - The domestic economy shows positive changes as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, while year-on-year it remained flat [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, indicating an improvement in market supply and demand relationships [1] - The expansion of domestic demand policies is having a noticeable effect, leading to marginal improvements in price movements [1] Group 2 - The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in July, marking the highest level since March 2024, reflecting enhanced market vitality and smoother economic circulation [3] - Service prices significantly contributed to the CPI increase, with airfares, tourism, hotel accommodations, and transportation rental fees rising by 17.9%, 9.1%, 6.9%, and 4.4% respectively, collectively accounting for over 60% of the CPI's month-on-month increase [3] - Industrial consumer goods prices also showed positive trends, with a 0.2% month-on-month increase excluding energy, driven by demand recovery from consumption policies [3] Group 3 - The month-on-month decline in the PPI has narrowed for the first time since March, indicating a stabilization in industrial product prices due to improved market competition [4] - Key industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium battery sectors have seen reduced price declines, contributing to a decrease in the downward pressure on the PPI [4] - Prices of representative "anti-involution" goods like coking coal, rebar, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have entered a strong upward cycle, positively impacting the PPI [4] Group 4 - International factors are also positively influencing industrial product prices, with oil and gas extraction prices rising by 3.0% and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling prices increasing by 0.8% [4] - The transformation and upgrading of industries are driving price recoveries in related sectors, with caustic soda prices up by 3.6% and a reduced decline in glass manufacturing prices by 0.9% [4] - The release of domestic demand potential is leading to year-on-year price increases in certain industries, such as a 13.1% rise in the manufacturing of arts and crafts and a 5.3% increase in sports balls manufacturing [4]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, consumer complaints in China increased significantly, indicating rising consumer dissatisfaction and highlighting areas for improvement in service and product quality [1][2]. Group 1: Overall Complaint Statistics - A total of 995,971 consumer complaints were received, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.23% [1]. - Out of these complaints, 509,655 were resolved, resulting in a total economic loss recovery of 452 million yuan [1]. - The number of consumer visits and consultations reached 330,000 [1]. Group 2: Nature of Complaints - After categorizing complaints, issues related to after-sales service were the most prominent, accounting for 26.47% of total complaints [1]. - Compared to the first half of 2024, complaints regarding counterfeits, safety, and false advertising increased, while complaints about after-sales service, quality, and measurement decreased [1]. Group 3: Product Category Complaints - Product-related complaints totaled 541,215, making up 54.34% of all complaints, with an increase of 8.79 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. - The top five categories for product complaints included home electronics, clothing and footwear, daily goods, food, and transportation [1]. - The proportion of complaints related to clothing and daily goods increased compared to the first half of 2024 [1]. Group 4: Service Category Complaints - Service-related complaints amounted to 406,747, representing 40.84% of total complaints, with a decrease of 1.56 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - The leading categories for service complaints were internet services, life and social services, education and training services, sales services, and cultural, entertainment, and sports services [2]. - There was an increase in complaints related to financial services, education and training services, and sales services, while complaints about life and social services and telecommunications services decreased [2].

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, consumer complaints received by national consumer associations reached 995,971, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.23% [1] - A total of 509,655 complaints were resolved, resulting in a financial recovery of 452 million yuan for consumers [1] Complaint Nature Analysis - After-sales service issues were prominent, accounting for 26.47% of total complaints [1] - Compared to the first half of 2024, complaints regarding counterfeiting, safety, and false advertising increased, while complaints about after-sales service, quality, and measurement decreased [1] Complaint Categories - Product-related complaints totaled 541,215, representing 54.34% of all complaints, with an increase of 8.79 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024 [1] - Service-related complaints amounted to 406,747, making up 40.84% of total complaints, showing a decrease of 1.56 percentage points [1] - Other complaints accounted for 48,009, or 4.82% of the total [1] Product Complaint Breakdown - The top five categories for product complaints were home electronics, clothing and footwear, daily goods, food, and transportation [1] - Compared to the first half of 2024, the proportion of complaints for clothing and daily goods increased [1] Service Complaint Breakdown - The leading categories for service complaints included internet services, life and social services, education and training services, sales services, and cultural, entertainment, and sports services [2] - There was an increase in complaints related to financial services, education and training services, and sales services, while complaints about life and social services and telecommunications services decreased [2] Specific Product Complaints - The top five specific product complaints were clothing, communication products, ordinary food, shoes, and daily miscellaneous items [2] - Notably, complaints for daily miscellaneous items, shoes, and clothing saw significant increases compared to the first half of 2024 [2] Specific Service Complaints - The top five specific service complaints were for commercial internet services, dining services, training services, mobile phone services, and remote shopping [2] - There was a noticeable increase in complaints related to transportation, education services, and performance services, while complaints for mobile phone services and accommodation services decreased [2]

Core Viewpoint - The potential implementation of a 10% tariff by the United States on all European products could lead to significant economic losses for Italy, amounting to €20 billion (approximately $23.6 billion) in exports and the loss of 118,000 jobs [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Italy's major export sectors include machinery, transportation, and leather goods, which are more sensitive to price changes compared to luxury goods [1] - The Italian Industrial Association's president, Emanuele Orsini, emphasized that a 10% tariff would be unsustainable for the Italian economy [1] Group 2: Government Response - Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has downplayed the potential impact of the tariffs on Italian companies, suggesting that it would not cause significant harm [1]

Group 1 - The Taiwan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 2.1 percentage points to 51% in May, indicating a shift from contraction to expansion compared to April [1] - The future outlook index for May is at 40.9%, marking the second consecutive month of contraction [1] - Among the five components of the PMI, new orders and employment remain in contraction, while production activity has shifted to expansion [1] Group 2 - In the manufacturing sector, three industries—electronics and optics, electrical and mechanical equipment, and chemicals and biotechnology—are experiencing expansion, while transportation, basic raw materials, and food and textiles are still in contraction [1] - The Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (NMI) rose by 0.9 percentage points to 51.9% in May, marking three consecutive months of expansion [1] - Factors such as conservative business outlook, stock market corrections, and low consumer confidence are impacting economic trends [2]

Summary of Key Points Overview of Consumer Rights Protection - In April, the 12315 hotline in Baotou received a total of 5,234 consumer complaints, representing a month-on-month decrease of 8.18% but a year-on-year increase of 27.94% [1] - A total of 1,726 complaints were resolved in April, involving a dispute amount of 1.3059 million yuan, successfully recovering 745,400 yuan for consumers [1] - From January to April, 8,269 complaints were resolved, involving a total dispute amount of 7.4436 million yuan, with 3.0731 million yuan recovered for consumers [1] Complaint Hotspots - The majority of complaints were concentrated in the goods and services sectors [2] Goods Sector Complaints - Food-related complaints led the goods category with 484 cases, accounting for 40.77% of total complaints, with 70% focusing on food safety issues such as spoilage, foreign objects, and expiration [3] - Clothing and footwear complaints totaled 115 cases, making up 9.69%, primarily related to quality and after-sales issues [3] - Complaints regarding transportation tools reached 99 cases, accounting for 8.34%, with new car complaints being the most significant at 61 cases, followed by 15 for used cars and 23 for electric bicycles [3] Services Sector Complaints - Sales service complaints amounted to 317 cases, representing 29.24% of service-related complaints [7] - Complaints in the restaurant and accommodation sector totaled 235 cases, accounting for 21.68%, mainly concerning overcharging for room usage and compensation standards for items [7] - Complaints in the beauty, hairdressing, and bathing sector reached 101 cases, making up 9.32%, primarily related to poor service quality, such as unsatisfactory results, allergic reactions, and insufficient service duration, as well as contract disputes [7]

Core Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, the China Consumers Association reported a total of 461,767 consumer complaints, marking a year-on-year increase of 33.33% [1] - The organization successfully recovered economic losses amounting to 23.723 million yuan for consumers [1] Complaint Categories - The top five categories for product complaints included home electronics, clothing and footwear, daily goods, food, and transportation [1] - Compared to the first quarter of 2024, the proportion of complaints in clothing and footwear, as well as daily goods, has increased, while complaints related to agricultural production materials have decreased [1] Service Categories - The leading categories for service complaints were internet services, life and social services, education and training services, sales services, and cultural, entertainment, and sports services [1] - In comparison to the first quarter of 2024, there was an increase in the proportion of complaints in financial services, cultural, entertainment, and sports services, and public facilities services, while complaints in life and social services, internet services, and telecommunications services saw a decline [1]