Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [4] Core Viewpoints - The energy and materials sectors have seen valuation increases, while earnings forecasts remain stable [1] - The overall market has experienced a decline, with significant differentiation in sector performance, particularly in technology [1][2] - Analysts have adjusted earnings expectations upwards for most sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the near term [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.6%, while the Hang Seng Composite Index fell by 0.7% [1] - Mid-cap stocks outperformed small-cap and large-cap stocks, with mid-cap stocks up by 0.6% and large-cap stocks down by 1.0% [1] - Among 30 sectors, 18 saw gains, with notable increases in oil and petrochemicals (+5.4%) and non-ferrous metals (+2.8%) [1] Valuation Levels - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.9% to 11.4x, while the Hang Seng Composite Index valuation fell by 0.7% to 11.5x [2] - Valuations increased in 14 sectors, with oil and petrochemicals up by 5.3% and steel by 2.4% [2] - The most significant declines in valuation were seen in retail (-4.3%) and computers (-3.6%) [2] Earnings Expectations - The earnings per share (EPS) for the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.3% compared to the previous week [3] - The most significant upward revisions in EPS expectations were for the biotechnology sector (+0.8%) and the ROE aggressive strategy (+1.7%) [3] - A total of 27 sectors saw EPS revisions upwards, with notable increases in basic chemicals (+2.1%) and computers (+1.5%) [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.53% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.34% [1] Company Performance - Major tech stocks performed well, with Meituan increasing by 5.2% and Alibaba rising by 3.4% [1] - Zijin Mining (601899) saw a rise of 5.3% [1] - However, Zhizhen experienced a notable decline, dropping by 22% [1]

Market Performance - During the week from February 16 to February 20, the Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.58% to 26,413.25 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 2.78% to 511.50 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreasing by 0.81% to 8,959.56 points [1][6][30] - Among the primary sectors, 8 sectors saw gains while 3 sectors experienced losses. The energy, materials, and industrial sectors had the highest increases, rising by 3.65%, 2.27%, and 1.03% respectively. Conversely, the consumer discretionary, consumer staples, and communication services sectors faced the largest declines, dropping by 1.86%, 1.50%, and 0.13% respectively [1][7][30] Market Liquidity - Due to the Spring Festival holiday, the Hong Kong stock market only operated for half a day on February 16, with a trading volume of HKD 850.56 billion. On February 20, the trading volume was HKD 1,654.61 billion, which is lower than the previous week's average daily trading volume of HKD 2,406.43 billion. The short-selling amount was HKD 237.27 billion, accounting for 14.43%, significantly higher than the previous week's average of 12.56% [2][13][15] Valuation and Risk Premium - As of February 20, 2026, the PE and PB ratios of the Hang Seng Index were 12.09 times and 1.23 times, respectively, placing them at the 79% and 55% percentiles since 2010. The Hang Seng Tech Index had PE and PB ratios of 21.51 times and 2.83 times, respectively, at the 18% and 49% percentiles since 2010 [3][17][22] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.19%, which is at the 5% percentile since 2010, while the risk premium based on the 10-year Chinese government bond yield was 6.48%, at the 42% percentile since 2010 [3][19][21] Investment Outlook - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, which may lead to increased volatility in energy and precious metals sectors. The U.S. is exerting pressure on Iran, with potential military actions being considered [4][9][30] - The consumer sector is currently valued relatively low, and with increasing consumer promotion policies, there is potential for growth in this sector [4][30] - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with reduced valuation pressure following recent corrections, and is expected to rebound due to accelerated AI model updates and applications [4][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the performance of listed companies falling short of expectations is a primary risk for the market in 2026, with a projected 18% earnings growth for the CSI 300 index if price wars and subsidies in the internet sector stabilize positively [2][16] - The A-share market is expected to continue its "slow bull" trend into 2026, with major institutions predicting double-digit growth for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index, targeting 100 points and 5200 points respectively [4][16] - The market has shown strong signals of a sustained upward trend, with significant increases in brokerage account openings, fund sales, and daily trading volumes, indicating a consensus on the "slow bull" market [3][4] Group 2 - The technology sector remains a hot investment area, with significant growth in high-tech industries, particularly in AI, robotics, and semiconductor sectors, which have seen substantial market capitalization increases [9][12] - The A-share market's performance is influenced by various factors, including macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, and global geopolitical changes, which will test the sustainability of the slow bull trend [16] - Analysts emphasize the importance of quality assets and the return of premium leading companies, suggesting that the focus should shift towards companies with strong earnings and valuation potential [13][16]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a positive trend on February 23, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.29%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.32%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 2.50% [1] - The FTSE China A50 Index futures also saw an increase of over 1% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a significant rise of 3.32%, with only two constituent stocks declining. Notable gainers included Meituan-W, which rose nearly 7%, and several others like Huahong Semiconductor, SMIC, JD.com, and Sunny Optical, all increasing by over 4% [1][2] - The AI sector faced a downturn, with stocks like Zhizhu falling by 23.72% and MINIMAX-WP down by 10.52% [2] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector showed positive movement, with the London gold spot price increasing by 1.11% to $5,167.610 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures rising by 2.16% to $5,190.6 per ounce [5] - Silver prices also saw gains, with London silver spot prices up by 3.19% to $87.267 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increasing by 5.78% to $87.100 per ounce [5] Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector performed strongly, with the Hong Kong Non-Ferrous Metals Index rising by 4.76%. Key stocks included Tongguan Gold, which surged by 11.01%, and others like Datang Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold, both up by over 8% [5][7] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) noted that the long-term logic for the precious metals sector remains robust, with performance releases expected to support valuation recovery. The gold price is anticipated to maintain a high level in the medium to long term, presenting potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks and tariff risks are impacting the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on how these factors will influence market performance post-holiday [1]. - The report highlights that the U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 was 1.4%, significantly below the expected 2.5%, indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy [2][44]. - The report suggests that the recent increase in U.S. tariffs from 10% to 15% on global goods may lead to heightened investor risk aversion, benefiting sectors like precious metals and energy [2][46]. - The consumption sector is currently at a relatively low valuation, with potential for growth as consumer policies increase [2][46]. - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with reduced valuation pressure and potential for rebound due to advancements in AI [2][46]. Market Review - During the week of February 16 to February 20, 2026, the Hong Kong stock market saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.58% to 26,413.25 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.78% to 511.50 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.81% to 8,959.56 points [4][6]. - Among the primary sectors, 8 sectors increased while 3 sectors decreased, with energy, materials, and industrial sectors showing the highest gains [6][14]. - The trading volume was affected by the Spring Festival, with a total turnover of HKD 850.56 billion on February 16 and HKD 1,654.61 billion on February 20, lower than the previous week's average [14][18]. Valuation and Risk Premium - As of February 20, 2026, the PE and PB ratios for the Hang Seng Index were 12.09 and 1.23, respectively, placing them at the 79% and 55% percentiles since 2010 [22][29]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 4.19%, indicating a low-risk environment compared to historical data [29][31]. - The report notes that the dividend yields for the energy and communication services sectors are above 5%, suggesting stable income opportunities for investors [36][41]. Investment Outlook - The report recommends focusing on sectors that may benefit from geopolitical tensions and tariff adjustments, particularly precious metals and energy [46]. - The consumption sector is expected to gain momentum as consumer policies are implemented, while the technology sector is anticipated to rebound due to advancements in AI [46].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a positive trend with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.29%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.32%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up by 2.50% as of midday close [1] - The FTSE China A50 Index futures also saw an increase of over 1% [1] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a significant rise of 3.32%, with only two constituent stocks declining. Notable gainers included Meituan-W, which rose nearly 7%, and several others such as Huahong Semiconductor, SMIC, JD.com, and Sunny Optical Technology, all increasing by over 4% [1][2] - The AI sector faced a setback, with stocks like Zhizhu falling by 23.72% and MINIMAX-WP down by 10.52% [2] - The metals sector performed strongly, with the Hong Kong Nonferrous Metals Index rising by 4.76%. Key stocks included Tongguan Gold, which surged by 11.01%, and others like Datang Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold, both up by over 8% [5][7] Precious Metals - As of February 23, 2023, the spot price of gold in London increased by 1.11% to $5,167.610 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose by 2.16% to $5,190.6 per ounce. Silver prices also saw gains, with London silver up by 3.19% and COMEX silver futures up by 5.78% [5][7] - Zhongjin Securities expressed a positive long-term outlook for the precious metals sector, indicating that performance releases will support valuation recovery. They anticipate stable long-term gold price trends and potential short-term opportunities due to price fluctuations [9] Investment Opportunities - China Galaxy Securities highlighted three key sectors for investment: 1. Precious metals and energy sectors are expected to rise due to increased market risk aversion influenced by geopolitical factors 2. The consumer sector, currently at relatively low valuations, has potential for growth as policies strengthen and consumer activity rebounds 3. The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with recent corrections easing valuation pressures, particularly in the context of accelerated AI model iterations and applications [9]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market post-Spring Festival, indicating a potential upward trend in the market driven by favorable policies and external factors [5][11][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that concerns regarding economic and profit growth during the Spring Festival period did not materialize, with significant increases in travel and consumption data compared to the previous year [5][11]. - Historical data indicates that the A-share market tends to rise after the Spring Festival, particularly in years when the festival starts later, with 12 out of 16 instances showing gains in the first five trading days post-festival [11][27]. - The report emphasizes that technology growth and cyclical industries are likely to outperform in the short term following the festival, supported by favorable policies and market trends [31][32]. Summary by Sections Market Concerns and Trends - Concerns about economic performance during the Spring Festival were largely unfounded, with travel data showing a 6.1% year-on-year increase in cross-regional movement during the holiday [5][11]. - Consumption data was also positive, with the total box office for the Spring Festival exceeding 3 billion yuan, indicating strong consumer demand [5][11]. Post-Festival Market Outlook - The report anticipates a continuation of the spring market rally, with A-shares expected to show a strong upward trend due to positive policy expectations and limited external risks [11][27]. - The report notes that the macro liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, with expectations of increased capital inflow into the stock market post-festival [27][31]. Industry Configuration - The report recommends continued investment in technology growth and cyclical industries post-festival, as these sectors are expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [31][32]. - Specific sectors highlighted for investment include machinery (robots), media (AI applications, gaming), computing (AI applications), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), military (commercial aerospace), and communications (AI hardware) [31][32].

文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面，或因天气原因，春节假期出行需求对相关消费拉动明显；春节假期原油等全球定价商品价格中枢保持强势，PPI同比于 Q2转正概率进一步增加。 海外方面，1）美最高院裁定特朗普关税非法，裁决结果出来后特朗普立即采取122关税征收150天的15%临时进口关税，2月24日 生效。2）美国Q4实际GDP环比折年率1.4%，预期2.8%，前值4.4%。投资是主要亮点，由0.8%升至2.6%。3）美联储1月纪要显示 内部分歧加大，总体来看，官员对就业市场的担忧有所减轻，而对通胀的担忧则有所增加。 资产方面，预计节后国内资本市场除关注春晚题材外，仍将加大对通胀（PPI）方向的配置。值得注意的是，即便国际油价受美伊 局势影响，但其价格中枢也将继续保持上移态势，上调WTI油价全年均值至65-70美元/桶区间。 1、春节经济数据看点：1）出行：春节居民出行意愿高涨，全国迁徙指数显著高于2019及2025年，自驾公路出行占主导，腊月二 十五至正月初四，全社会跨区域流量同比增长7.55%；国内出游占主导，出入境游进一步活跃，赴日旅行人数骤减；重点旅游地区 的游客数量、收入增长可观；2）票房：出 ...

Market Trends - After the Spring Festival, the market shows a pattern where small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks, with a higher probability of market gains over 5, 10, and 20 trading days[2] - The CSI 2000 index has a significant increase of 10.4% with a 91% probability of rising in the 20 trading days post-holiday[14] Sector Performance - Technology and cyclical sectors are expected to lead, with notable gains in computer, communication, environmental protection, non-ferrous metals, steel, and textile sectors[2] - Consumer staples like food and beverage, banking, and household appliances are expected to lag behind[2] Spring Rally Dynamics - Historical data from 2016 to present indicates that 6 out of 10 spring rallies have led to a second wave of gains after an initial pullback[3] - The second wave of gains is often more profitable and closely tied to the prevailing market themes, which currently favor technology[3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain confidence in the bull market, as the core drivers remain intact, with a suggested securities ratio of over 1.1 as a bullish signal[6] - Recommended sectors include military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware, alongside materials benefiting from PPI improvements[33] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in industrial policy[7][34][35]