投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/29 | -149.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/28 | -147.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼 ...

www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/04/25 | -146.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/24 | -144.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/23 | -143.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/22 | -141.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/04/21 | -140.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has faced scrutiny regarding the accuracy and completeness of its quarterly report, particularly due to the dissenting opinion of an independent director regarding the financial disclosures and the impact of a recent safety incident [3][36]. Financial Data Summary - Derivative financial assets decreased by 84.64% compared to the beginning of the year, primarily due to reduced fair value changes from temporary pricing arrangements caused by rising metal prices [6]. - Accounts receivable decreased by 41.89%, attributed to a reduction in sales receivables [6]. - Accounts receivable financing increased by 106.06%, driven by an increase in sales transactions settled via bank acceptance bills [6]. - Other receivables rose by 103.82%, mainly due to an increase in futures margin deposits [6]. - Inventory increased by 40.18%, influenced by rising metal market prices and reserves from a subsidiary's multi-metal mining project [6]. Liabilities and Equity Changes - Short-term borrowings increased by 67.81%, reflecting higher raw material procurement [9]. - Derivative financial liabilities surged by 81,333.99%, linked to increased fair value losses from temporary pricing arrangements due to rising metal prices [9]. - Contract liabilities rose by 302.00%, due to increased advance payments for products like phosphate [11]. - Tax payable increased by 155.95%, primarily due to higher value-added tax [12]. Income Statement Highlights - Sales expenses increased by 49.43%, mainly due to higher wages and business expenses [15]. - Financial expenses rose by 42.82%, attributed to increased interest expenses from a larger debt scale due to higher inventory [15]. - Other income increased by 75.09%, driven by tax incentives for advanced manufacturing enterprises and increased government subsidies [15]. - Investment income grew by 34.32%, primarily from increased returns on investments in a gold company [16]. - Credit impairment losses surged by 313.87%, due to higher provisions for bad debts [17]. Cash Flow Analysis - Net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 307.92%, mainly due to rising inventory prices and reserves for a multi-metal mining project [21]. - Net cash flow from investing activities decreased by 68.40%, attributed to increased cash outflows from investment activities [21]. - Net cash flow from financing activities increased by 231.06%, reflecting higher cash inflows from financing activities [21]. - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents decreased by 140.56%, primarily due to reduced net cash flow from operating activities [21]. Corporate Governance and Management Changes - The company appointed a new director and chairman, Xiao Xiaojun, following the resignation of Zhang Fan due to work adjustments [22]. - An independent director expressed concerns regarding the accuracy of the quarterly report, particularly about the change in the signing accountant and the implications of a recent safety incident [36].

【锌】五一假期临近，市场备货意愿一般。基本面来看，秘鲁一大型铜矿出现异动，叠加国内社库持续 录减，情绪转好与库存低位暂支撑锌价；但传统旺季临近尾声，镀锌下游订单低于往年同期水平，需求 疲软令锌价承压。整体看下周锌价或延续震荡区间，关注2.24-2.32万。 【锡】本周现货锡价震荡上行，周涨幅2.33%。宏观面来看，周初市场对美联储独立性存疑，美元承压 低位运行，叠加特朗普对华关税态度缓和，市场紧张情绪有所缓解，带动锡价重心上移。基本面来看， 刚果（金）Bisie锡矿虽已恢复运营，但需要一定时间进行转化，叠加佤邦虽于周三开展曼相矿山复工 复产座谈会，但具体复产时间不定，短期供紧格局难改，支撑锡价。需求端看，近期锡价小幅上涨，但 镀锡板及锡化工产品市场需求平稳。关注佤邦复产情况以及宏观面消息。预计下周锡价延续震荡走势， 关注锡价25.5-27万区间。 【镍】本周内镍铁主流报价在975-1000元/镍点之间，市场成交价格持续走低。镍板现货方面，持货商 积极出货，下游用家刚需采购，实际成交一般。精炼镍两市库存压力犹存，不锈钢成品需求尚未见大幅 好转，印尼镍产品增税新政下落地，下周现货镍价或有小幅走高，建议关注12.5 ...

Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may experience short - term range - bound consolidation [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal may show a short - term oscillatory upward trend [1]. - **Corn**: In the short term, corn futures prices will be range - bound, and a range - trading strategy is recommended [1]. - **Copper**: Tactical defense should focus on the suppression of the 60 - day moving average and the shape of the monthly K - line [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The Y2507 contract of lithium carbonate may be weakly oscillatory, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4]. - **Steel**: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy at low prices for far - month contracts after May is recommended [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to ample supply, coking coal and coke will experience a weak oscillatory rebound at low levels, with limited upside [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The I2505 contract of iron ore will be oscillatory in the short term, and traders are advised to be cautious [8]. - **Crude Oil**: In the medium - to - long term, the price center of crude oil will move downward. Attention should be paid to the resistance at $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract [9]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10]. - **PVC**: Due to weak demand, PVC futures prices may oscillate at low levels [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [12]. Market Analysis by Product Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Situation**: Currently, it is the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. The South American new crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3,700 yuan/ton, 4,080 yuan/ton, 3,840 yuan/ton, and 3,620 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Market Situation**: The Sino - U.S. trade tariff issue remains unresolved. U.S. soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is nearing completion. As Brazilian soybeans arrive in China, the supply of soybean meal is expected to become more abundant. The pre - May Day inventory build - up in the spot market and the oil mill's production are misaligned, leading to a low inventory of soybean meal [1]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,105 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,313 yuan/ton. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are in the range of 2,160 - 2,190 yuan/ton [1]. - **Market Situation**: The impact of U.S. tariff events on the U.S. corn market is weakening. The USDA report in April lowered the U.S. corn production and ending stocks, and the weakening U.S. dollar index supports the U.S. corn futures. In China, farmers have sold most of their corn, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. However, the downstream demand is weak due to factors such as slow pig production reduction, high feed inventory, wheat substitution, and the upcoming new wheat harvest [1]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is in the range of 77,060 - 77,330 yuan, up 645 yuan. The import copper concentrate index is - 34.71, down 3.82 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, and overseas capital markets are highly volatile. The Fed's uncertain actions and domestic policy support co - exist. The raw material supply problem of copper has not been completely resolved, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 69,500 yuan/ton (down 500 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 68,100 yuan/ton (down 750 yuan/ton) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is declining. The weekly operating rate is increasing but at a slower pace, and the salt lake production has resumed. The demand has improved but is not strong enough to drive the price up. The weekly inventory has been increasing [3][4]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is in the range of 77,060 - 77,330 yuan, up 645 yuan. The import copper concentrate index is - 34.71, down 3.82 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving, with a weakened contango structure and a neutral - to - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry, the apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, and raw material prices are oscillating weakly. Steel inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the switching between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [6]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively abundant. Domestic production capacity is recovering, and the utilization rate of coking plants is stable. The demand from steel mills is weak, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises is gradually increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [6][7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts Iron Ore Index is 99.3, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 777 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore fines (62% Fe) is 768 yuan [8]. - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market has both positive and negative factors. The Australian iron ore shipment has decreased, while the Brazilian shipment has increased. The global total shipment has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic steel mill's iron production has increased, but the procurement is still cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the U.S. tariff policy increases market volatility [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the U.S. inventory has decreased. OPEC+ has announced compensation cuts for April - May, offsetting the planned increase in May. However, the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy still exists. In the medium - to - long term, the price center of crude oil will move downward. The demand in the second quarter may be severely affected by the trade war [9]. Rubber - **Spot Market**: Not provided in detail, but mentioned the impact on China's tire and automobile exports [10]. - **Market Situation**: The global rubber market is affected by the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, showing a weak oscillatory trend. The supply in China is gradually recovering, and the supply in Thailand is abundant. The global rubber market has a situation of both loose supply and demand, and the U.S. automobile tariff may suppress the demand [10]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [11]. - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [11]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,413.06 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [12]. - **Market Situation**: The overall operating rate of soda ash production has increased, and the output has increased. The manufacturer's inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average, and the futures market may be weakly oscillatory in the short term [12].

Summary of Tengyuan Cobalt Industry Conference Call Company Overview - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry is a comprehensive enterprise engaged in the production and trade of cobalt, nickel, and copper products, leading the industry in precious metal recovery rates. The company has a short production cycle for new factories and flexible production line designs, optimizing fixed asset investments. The strategic focus is on expanding the Chinese market while ensuring upstream raw material supply and consolidating its position as a leader in midstream smelting [1][2][3]. Core Business Insights - The company's products are widely used in various sectors, including electric vehicles (cobalt sulfate, nickel sulfate), AI terminals (cobalt chloride, cobalt oxide), aerospace, hard alloys, infrastructure, and power. Tengyuan has established long-term stable partnerships with leading enterprises in the industry chain and is actively exploring deep cooperation models [1][4]. - In 2024, the company expects revenue to exceed 6.5 billion yuan and net profit to surpass 680 million yuan, with total assets reaching 10.7 billion yuan and a debt ratio of only 17.8%, significantly lower than the industry average [2][11]. Market Trends and Challenges - The international landscape in 2024 is complex, with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions impacting the industry. However, the company believes these factors will have limited effects on its operations. The consumption electronics and AI terminal markets are seen as promising directions for the next 3 to 5 years, supported by government subsidies [1][5]. - The electric vehicle market continues to grow robustly, driven by policies promoting vehicle upgrades and advancements in autonomous driving technology. The company aims to leverage its advantages in material research and production to support the widespread application of high-density batteries [7][8]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company plans to expand its production capacity significantly, with cobalt production increasing to 46,000 tons, nickel to 60,000 tons, lithium carbonate to 20,000 tons, electrolytic copper to 90,000 tons, ternary materials to 120,000 tons, and nickel sulfate to 20,000 tons by 2025 [2][14]. - A new copper smelting project in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to produce 30,000 tons annually by the end of 2026 [2][10]. Research and Development - Tengyuan is increasing its R&D investment by 12% in 2024 compared to 2023, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which have led to a 6.13% decrease in carbon emissions [12][13]. Supply Chain and Raw Material Procurement - The company has established a dual-driven strategy to ensure stable raw material supply through both primary production and secondary resource recovery. It sources raw materials from major mining companies and employs a combination of long-term and short-term contracts to manage procurement [3][23][39]. - The company is actively addressing challenges related to power supply and transportation in its DRC operations to enhance production efficiency [15]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about its performance in 2025, expecting to achieve over 10% growth in cobalt product sales compared to 2024, driven by technological innovation and cost control [24][37]. - The global outlook for bulk commodities, particularly copper, remains positive, with anticipated price increases despite short-term fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors [10][36]. Conclusion - Tengyuan Cobalt Industry is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities in the electric vehicle and AI sectors while maintaining a strong focus on R&D and operational efficiency. The company's strategic initiatives and robust supply chain management are expected to support its long-term growth objectives in a challenging market environment [1][2][5][45].

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the company achieved significant revenue growth, but it faced a decline in performance in the first quarter of 2025, prompting concerns about market conditions and future prospects [2][8]. Group 1: 2024 Performance - The company reported total revenue of 6.542 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.02% year-on-year increase [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 685 million yuan, a substantial increase of 81.24% compared to the previous year [5]. - The gross profit was 1.445 billion yuan, reflecting a 38.54% increase, indicating effective cost control and product optimization [5]. - The company expanded its product offerings, including cobalt salts and battery-grade lithium carbonate, and established long-term partnerships with several well-known enterprises in the industry [5]. Group 2: Q1 2025 Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.46 billion yuan, a decline of 3.6% year-on-year [6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 123 million yuan, down 14.3% compared to the same period last year [6]. - The company experienced a negative operating cash flow of 19.12 million yuan, despite a 19.6% increase in cash flow from operations [6]. Group 3: Future Growth Plans - The company announced plans to expand its copper and cobalt production capacity overseas, including a new wet metallurgy plant in the Democratic Republic of the Congo with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons of copper and 2,000 tons of cobalt [7]. - The project is expected to have a construction period of 18 months and a post-tax internal rate of return of 35.01% [7]. - The company maintains a safety stock of materials and is prepared to manage potential disruptions due to local policy changes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [7].

Core Viewpoint - Tengyuan Cobalt's profitability has significantly improved due to the gradual release of production capacity from domestic and international projects, leading to substantial revenue and profit growth in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Tengyuan Cobalt achieved an operating income of 6.542 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 685 million yuan, up 81.24% [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 671 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 83.39% year-on-year [1]. - The sales volume of cobalt, nickel, and lithium products saw significant year-on-year growth of 22.8%, 658.92%, and 1368.38%, respectively, while copper sales volume increased by 11.55% [2]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Projects - The company has invested 1.101 billion yuan in its IPO fundraising projects, achieving a progress rate of 64.84% [2]. - Tengyuan Cobalt plans to establish a joint venture in Hong Kong to develop a copper mining project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with an investment of 980 million yuan (approximately 136 million USD) [3]. - The new project aims to build a hydrometallurgical plant with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons of copper and 2,000 tons of cobalt, with a projected internal rate of return of 35.01% after tax [3]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The expansion of production capacity through new projects is expected to enhance the company's economies of scale and competitiveness in the global cobalt and copper markets [3]. - Despite the strong performance in 2024, the company reported a decline in revenue and net profit in the first quarter of 2025, with operating income of 1.461 billion yuan, down 3.59% year-on-year, and net profit of 123 million yuan, down 14.27% [2].

【铝&氧化铝】 今日沪铝跟随有色整体反弹,现货升贴水暂稳，华东升水60元,华南升水20元。过去一周铝锭铝棒社库下降5.1 万吨和3万吨,总库存处于近年同期最低水平,五一节前备货和抢出口需求带动去库加速。沪铝短期基本面偏 强,测试两万关口阻力,但美国关税谈判和全球需求前景并不乐观,旺季过后消费环比面临回落,沪铝反弹高 度将受限。4月氧化铝厂集中检修阶段性彩响产量,近日现货成交价在2800-2900元区域暂时止跌企稳，但多数 企业将在检修后恢复生产,难改长期过利格局,盈加近30万吨的仓单库存限制氧化铝反弹高度,震荡中连高偏 空参与为主。 国技期货 | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆★ | | | 铝 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ☆☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镍及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | ...

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8090 元/吨，较上一交易涨 90 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3170（50）、天津 3650（60）、日照 3320（120）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观 预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：近期豆粕供应依旧偏紧，巴西大豆预期 4 月中下旬到港， 5-7 月大 豆到港预计超千万吨。下游养殖企业库存低位，豆粕成交小幅提振。油厂豆粕库存维持中 性。 参考观点：多重因素共振，豆粕短线或区间震荡。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米 ...