来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月6日，万家中证港股通央企红利ETF（159333）收盘跌0.07%，成交额986.74万元。 港股央企红利ETF万家（159333）成立于2024年8月21日，基金全称为万家中证港股通央企红利交易型 开放式指数证券投资基金，基金简称为万家中证港股通央企红利ETF。该基金管理费率每年0.50%，托 管费率每年0.10%。港股央企红利ETF万家（159333）业绩比较基准为中证港股通央企红利指数收益率 (经估值汇率调整)。 规模方面，截止2月5日，港股央企红利ETF万家（159333）最新份额为3.34亿份，最新规模为4.87亿 元。回顾2025年12月31日，港股央企红利ETF万家（159333）份额为3.96亿份，规模为5.60亿元。即该 基金今年以来份额减少15.66%，规模减少13.01%。 流动性方面，截止2月6日，港股央企红利ETF万家（159333）近20个交易日累计成交金额4.13亿元，日 均成交金额2064.96万元；今年以来，25个交易日，累计成交金额4.72亿元，日均成交金额1889.26万 元。 港股央企红利ETF万家（159333）现任基金经理为杨坤。杨坤自2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded with escalating geopolitical risks. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran persisted. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision to authorize the strike. Israel is on high alert for the possible US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that it will strike Israel and the US if attacked. The Iranian president has shown a willingness to meet with protest groups, indicating a reconciliation tendency. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week. The Dubai monthly spread weakened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits declined. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price pattern in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - As the US and Iran are preparing for diplomatic negotiations, the White House is secretly consulting influential Iranian - American figures to formulate a transition plan for the potential collapse of the current Iranian regime [3] - The oversupply of crude oil is becoming increasingly severe, and Saudi Arabia has lowered crude oil prices for Asian buyers. Saudi Aramco has cut the price of "Arab Light" oil for Asian buyers by 30 cents per barrel, bringing it in line with the March benchmark price in the region. This is the lowest oil price level since the end of 2020 [4] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the US will consider whether to sanction Russia's shadow oil tanker fleet, and further sanctions against Russia depend on the peace negotiations [4] 3.2 Inventory - For the week ending February 21, EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma were 128.2 million barrels (previous value: 147.2 million barrels), EIA crude oil inventories were - 233.2 million barrels (expected: 260.5 million barrels, previous value: 463.3 million barrels), EIA gasoline inventories were 36.9 million barrels (expected: - 84.9 million barrels, previous value: - 15.1 million barrels), EIA refined oil inventories were 390.8 million barrels (expected: - 148.8 million barrels, previous value: - 205.1 million barrels), EIA refinery utilization rate was 86.5% (expected: 84.8%, previous value: 84.9%), and EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventories were 0 million barrels (previous value: 0 million barrels) [4] 3.3 Weekly View - Crude oil rebounded this week with rising geopolitical risks. The unstable situation in Iran continued over the weekend. Trump received a briefing on the military strike plan against Iran but has not made a final decision. Israel is highly vigilant about possible US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned of retaliation. The Iranian president's willingness to meet protest groups shows a reconciliation tendency. A US strike on Iran could cause oil prices to rise due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased, the Dubai monthly spread weakened after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits declined. The price pattern in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [5]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价下挫，其中 WTI 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.85 美元至 63.29 美 | | | | 元/桶，跌幅 2.84%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘下跌 1.91 美元至 67.55 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.75%。SC2603 以 460.3 元/桶收盘，下跌 3.4 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅 0.73%。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐正率领一支代表团前往阿 | | | | 曼首都马斯喀特，与美国进行核问题谈判。此次外交接触旨在就 | | | | 核问题达成一项公正、双方可接受且有尊严的协议。市场关注周 | | | | 五美伊谈判的进展。航运计划显示，约 200 万桶委内瑞拉重质原 | | | 原油 | 油正被运往西班牙石油生产商雷普索尔公司 Repsol 旗下的炼油 | 震荡 | | | 厂。这批原油系雷普索尔与贸易商托克集团此前协商采购，由此 | | | | 可验证委内瑞拉原油正在改变去向。现货方面，沙特阿 ...

此外，美国拜登政府对沙特利益诉求的忽视也是一个关键因素。沙特在也门胡塞武装问题、伊朗核问题 等方面的诉求，屡次遭到美国的轻视和背弃。美国在中东地区的所谓阿拉伯之春失败后，大幅度撤回军 事力量，使得美沙关系的裂痕愈加明显。沙特官方甚至直言，对于美国从伊拉克撤军后，又撤出阿富 汗，感到十分惊讶。随着美国在全球范围内霸权地位的衰退，沙特愈发倾向于根据本国的实际需求做出 战略调整。更值得注意的是，沙特与美国之间的石油贸易已从原先的每天200万桶，下降至如今的不足 50万桶，沙特对美国的依赖性持续下降。 与此同时，沙特对美元霸权的不满也得到了中俄两国的支 持。俄罗斯、白俄罗斯等五国组成的欧亚经济联盟，近期与中国举行视频会议，双方就如何构建脱离美 元的新金融结算体系达成了共识，并正在积极推动新的金融结算机制的出台。这一新机制将围绕各国货 币价值及大宗商品定价，建立统一标准。中俄两国已经搭建了成熟的金融结算框架，这一体系的扩展无 疑会加速全球范围内的推广。欧亚经济联盟计划在2025年前完成区域经济一体化进程，这一新金融结算 机制将大力推动该进程的加速。 美国在依赖其霸权地位肆意妄为的同时，美元霸权的脆弱性也愈加明显，仿佛四 ...

宏观日报 | 2026-02-06 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 上游价格回落，地产下游冷淡 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）工信部等八部门印发《中药工业高质量发展实施方案（2026—2030年）》，到2030年，中药工业全产 业链协同发展体系初步形成，重点中药原料持续稳定供应能力进一步增强，数智化、绿色化水平明显提升，一批 关键技术取得突破，产业协同创新水平显著提高。发展质量明显提高，中药工业规模效益稳步提升，产业集约化 程度明显提高，质量管理水平显著提升，培育一批引领带动能力突出的中药工业领航企业，培育60个高标准中药 原料生产基地。 服务行业：1）国家网信办等11部门联合印发《关于提升境外人员入境数字化服务便利性的实施意见》（以下简称 《实施意见》），旨在打通境外人员入境数字化服务堵点、卡点，建立互联互通、包容普惠、标准互认的数字化服 务体系，打造更加国际化、便利化的数字化服务环境，进一步扩大高水平对外开放，加快构建新发展格局。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 上游：1）能源：国际油价和天然气小幅回调。2）农业 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term oil prices are influenced by the Iranian situation. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have a slim chance of reaching an agreement, but their progress needs close monitoring. Iranian oil competes with Russian oil, and Iran strongly demands the lifting of sanctions. Oil prices will be range - bound in the short term and a short - position is recommended in the medium term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Key Data - On February 6, Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main crude oil grade for Asian buyers to the lowest level in years, indicating that global oil supply has exceeded demand. Saudi Aramco lowered the price of "Arab Light" oil for Asian buyers by 30 cents per barrel, which is the lowest since late 2020 [1]. - BP is seeking partners to increase production at the oldest oil field in the Middle East and share costs. The search for potential investors in the Kirkuk oil field in Iraq is underway, and it may last until next year. Large oil companies are showing renewed interest in Iraq, which has abundant and easily - mined oil resources. BP is seeking more international growth in oil and gas production, abandoning its previous pursuit of clean energy and net - zero emissions [1]. - On February 5, due to the US - Iran agreement to hold nuclear negotiations in Oman on Friday, confirmed by the White House and the Iranian Foreign Ministry, crude oil prices fell in the Asian morning session [1]. Investment Logic - Short - term oil prices are affected by the Iranian situation. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations face large differences, with a small hope of agreement, but progress should be closely monitored. Iranian oil competes with Russian oil, and the lifting of sanctions is Iran's strong demand [2]. Strategy - Oil prices will be range - bound in the short term and a short - position is recommended in the medium term [3].

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a retreat in prices after a period of increase, attributed to the easing of geopolitical risk premiums and concerns over economic growth impacting oil demand [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that US-Iran talks will take place in Oman, alleviating fears of imminent military conflict in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supply [1]. - The market's concerns regarding potential military conflicts in the Middle East have significantly diminished, leading to a release of previously accumulated geopolitical risk premiums [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent US private sector employment data showed weak performance, raising concerns about economic growth slowdown, which in turn has cast doubt on the oil demand outlook [1]. - The combination of weak employment data and geopolitical uncertainties has contributed to the downward pressure on oil prices [1]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price of its main crude oil varieties for Asian buyers to a multi-year low, although the actual reduction was less than market expectations, indicating a response to temporary supply easing rather than a pessimistic view on demand [1]. - Shell's CEO Wael Sawan noted that while there is a degree of supply surplus in the market, it is balanced by geopolitical challenges that create significant uncertainty, which itself contributes to price premiums [1]. Group 4: Ongoing Conflicts - Traders are closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine, as President Zelensky indicated that Russian attacks on energy infrastructure could affect negotiation processes, adding to the emotional uncertainty in the oil market [1].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-06原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2603： 1.基本面：乌克兰与俄罗斯结束了第二轮由美国斡旋的会谈，此次会谈旨在结束二战以来欧洲最大的 冲突，双方进行了大规模战俘交换，并同意很快重启谈判；伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐正率领一支代表团 前往阿曼首都马斯喀特，与美国进行核问题谈判，此次外交接触旨在就核问题达成一项公正、双方可 接受且有尊严的协议；沙特阿拉伯将向亚洲买家出售的主要原油等级的价格下调至数年来的最低水平， 这进一步表明全球石油供应量已超出需求量；中性 2.基差：2月5日，阿曼原油现货价为67.72美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为67.11美元/桶，基 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Night session oil prices gave back previous gains. Geopolitical news has a phased and intermittent impact on oil prices. Global oil market inventory accumulation pressure remains significant, and oil price volatility is expected to continue [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to decline. CME raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures. Short - term precious metals are in a volatile stage, and it is advisable to wait for volatility to decline [2]. Copper - Overnight, Shanghai copper's open interest dropped below 600,000 lots. The market is volatile in the short - term. The market focuses on potential reserves and supply - demand changes around the Spring Festival. It is more concerned about inter - period reverse arbitrage and waiting to go long at low prices [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly. Short - term macro sentiment is unstable, and the fundamentals are weak. There is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. It has difficulty rising with aluminum prices and its seasonal spread with Shanghai aluminum will be weaker than in previous years [5]. Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity has slightly decreased, but long - term large - scale production cuts have not occurred. The alumina market remains in surplus [6]. Zinc - Before the Spring Festival, Shanghai zinc's fluctuations have increased. The downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. In the short - term, zinc prices lack the momentum to rebound, but attention should be paid to potential rebounds after volatility declines [7]. Lead - The domestic lead market has weak supply and demand. Consumption support for prices is insufficient in the short - term. Cost support is relatively strong, and the market is in a state of divergence. It is advisable to wait and see before the Spring Festival [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and market trading was active. Stainless steel downstream buyers are cautious. The market sentiment is panicked, and caution is recommended [9]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices fluctuated. Wait for the changes in social inventory after the decline in tin prices this week. It is advisable to hold a small number of short positions or wait and see [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down during the session. The market participation is affected by exchange policies. The futures price is in high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [11]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was dragged down by the precious metal market sentiment. In February, production is expected to decline significantly. The downstream demand is weak. The market may rebound after a sharp decline and will generally maintain an oscillating trend [12]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market sentiment was affected by the decline in precious metals. In February, production is expected to decline. The market may go through inventory reduction. After an emotional correction, the market will maintain an oscillating trend [13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night session steel prices oscillated weakly. Rebar demand and production declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil demand decreased, and inventory slightly increased. The market atmosphere is pessimistic, and the price is under short - term pressure [14]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market oscillated overnight. Supply is seasonally low, and demand is weak in the off - season. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the short - term trend will be mainly oscillating [15]. Coke - The coke price oscillated downward during the day. Coking profit is average, and inventory slightly increased. The price will probably oscillate within a range [16]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated downward during the day. The total inventory has increased significantly. The price is difficult to decline significantly and will mainly oscillate within a range [17]. Ferromanganese Silicon - The price oscillated during the day. The supply is in surplus, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18]. Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. The demand has some resilience, and the supply has little change. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [19]. Group 2: Shipping and Related Products Container Freight Index (European Line) - Shipping companies are raising post - holiday quotes, but the actual implementation may be limited. The market is in a quiet period before the Spring Festival, and the freight rate is generally stable [20]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors and tight supply - demand in the spot market. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to supply increases and weakening demand [21]. Asphalt - Shandong and southern refineries have reduced production. Consumption has improved year - on - year. The price will continue to be strong, and the cracking spread is expected to rise [22]. Group 3: Chemical Products Urea - The spot price of urea has increased slightly. Production is rising, and demand is mainly for reserve. The market will oscillate within a range [23]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operation has declined, and domestic production has increased. The coastal demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are still weak [24]. Pure Benzene - Geopolitical risks have decreased, and the price has fallen. Domestic production has increased slightly, and imports are still high. The downstream demand is expected to improve, but the fundamentals may weaken as supply increases [25]. Styrene - Domestic production has increased. The price is affected by crude oil price fluctuations and will oscillate widely [26]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The supply of the two - olefin market has no obvious pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the market will oscillate [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost support and export demand. Caustic soda is running weakly, and its price is determined by the price of liquid chlorine [28]. PX and PTA - PX and PTA are oscillating at a low level. There is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. Consider long - position opportunities in the second quarter based on PX maintenance and polyester load - increasing expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - The inventory is increasing, and the short - term trend is oscillating. The supply - demand may improve in the second quarter, but the long - term is still under pressure [30]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak. Bottle - chip processing margin has improved, but there is long - term capacity pressure. Both follow raw material price fluctuations [31]. Group 4: Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are weakening. There is pressure for inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The price will oscillate widely due to the game between low valuation and weak reality [32]. 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price has fallen, and the natural rubber supply is in the reduction period. The demand is average, and the market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to wait and see [33]. Soda Ash - Soda ash is running weakly. Inventory is rising, and the market is under supply - demand pressure. Consider short - selling on rebounds [34]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - After the Sino - US leaders' communication, the US soybean futures rose, but the domestic market followed weakly. The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal will be bottom - oscillating [35]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - CBOT soybeans are strong. The US soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the impact of macro factors in 2026 [36]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The import of oilseeds is expected to improve. The rapeseed market will oscillate in the short - term [37]. Soybean No. 1 - Soybean No. 1 oscillates. The policy is promoting domestic soybean production. Pay attention to policy and market sentiment [38]. Corn - The spot price of corn in the northeast and northern ports is slightly stronger. The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short - term [39]. Live Pig - The live pig futures are declining. The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term price may have a low point in the first half of next year [40]. Egg - The egg futures have fallen significantly. The egg price may rise in the first half of 2026. Consider long - position strategies after the Spring Festival [41]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton is slightly declining. The short - term trend will be oscillating. Pay attention to import changes [42]. Sugar - International sugar production varies by country. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is slow, but there is an expectation of an increase in the 25/26 season. The short - term price is under pressure [43]. Apple - The apple futures price oscillates. The market focuses on demand. The poor quality and high price may affect inventory reduction [44]. Wood - The wood futures price is at a low level. Low inventory supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. Pulp - The pulp futures price has fallen. The port inventory is accumulating. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the price will oscillate. Wait and see and pay attention to support levels [46]. Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares adjusted with reduced volume, and stock index futures fell. The short - term risk assets will probably oscillate at a high level, and it is better to focus on performance - certain sectors [47]. Treasury Bond - On February 5, 2026, TL2603 led the rise. Other varieties are strong under the influence of loose funds and central bank bond - buying [48].

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia has reduced the price of its main crude oil grade for Asian buyers to the lowest level in years, indicating that global oil supply exceeds demand [2][7]. Group 1: Market News and Important Data - On February 6, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of "Arab Light" crude oil for Asian buyers by $0.30 per barrel, aligning it with the March benchmark price in the region, marking the lowest price level since the end of 2020 [2][7]. - BP is seeking partners to help increase production at one of the oldest oil fields in the Middle East, the Kirkuk oil field in Iraq, with potential investors already looking for opportunities. The timeline for any agreements is uncertain, but interest from major oil companies in Iraq is growing due to its rich oil resources and lower extraction costs compared to regions outside the Middle East [2][7]. - On February 5, oil prices fell during the Asian trading session due to the confirmation of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran scheduled for Friday in Oman, highlighting the geopolitical factors affecting oil prices [2][7]. Group 2: Investment Logic - Short-term oil prices are influenced by the situation in Iran, with the U.S. and Iran set to engage in formal nuclear negotiations. However, significant differences remain, making consensus unlikely, and the competition between Iranian oil and Russian oil is intensifying [8]. Group 3: Strategy - The strategy suggests a short-term range-bound movement in oil prices, with a mid-term bearish positioning anticipated [8].