1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US economy remains in a stage of decent growth, controllable inflation, and lingering political risks. Retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and inflation shows an "external hot, internal stable" pattern. Metal prices are rising rapidly, while the US stock market turns defensive and the US dollar index slightly declines. Oil prices continue to rebound [2]. - Domestically, exports and imports in December 2025 both exceeded expectations, showing a recovery in foreign demand and domestic imports. The property - related tax - refund policy is extended, and regulations are strengthened in the new energy vehicle industry. The A - share market receives regulatory cooling signals after reaching a new high, and the short - term upward slope may be adjusted [3]. - Precious metals continue to be strong due to factors such as the US inflation data boosting expectations of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the potential shortage of physical supply. The silver price is expected to remain strong in the short term [4][5]. - The copper price shows a strong and volatile trend. Strong economic fundamentals in China and the US provide demand support, and the supply of concentrates is growing slowly. It is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term [6][7]. - The aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. Although the macro - environment is stable, high prices suppress downstream consumption, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [8][9]. - The zinc price fluctuates strongly. The high copper - zinc and zinc - aluminum price ratios support the zinc price, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend with increased volatility [10]. - The lead price's rebound space is limited. Although the LME lead inventory is decreasing, the consumption pressure increases due to the anti - dumping tariff on lead - acid batteries, and the social inventory is rising. It is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. - The tin price hits a new high, but there is a risk of adjustment at the high level. Although the current supply disruption is limited, the supply of tin ore remains tight. However, the risk accumulates as the price rises continuously, and there may be a callback pressure [12][13]. - The steel price fluctuates. The fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate mainly. The impact of inventory accumulation on the steel price should be noted [14]. - The iron ore price is under pressure to oscillate. The supply is strong while the demand is weak, with high port inventories and general replenishment by steel mills [15]. - The coking coal and coke prices oscillate. The cost of coking enterprises is rising, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [16][17]. - The soybean and rapeseed meal prices oscillate. China's soybean procurement is approaching the target, and the Brazilian harvest will increase supply. The short - term trend depends on the pre - holiday stocking demand [18]. - The palm oil price oscillates. Indonesia cancels the B50 policy, which eases the supply - tightness expectation, but the improving export demand provides support [19][20]. 3. Summary of Each Section Macro - Overseas: The US is in a stage of decent growth, controllable inflation, and lingering political risks. In November, retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, driven by automobile and holiday - related consumption. PPI rose to 3% year - on - year, mainly due to energy prices, while core PPI was flat month - on - month. Metal prices rose rapidly, the US stock market turned defensive, the US dollar index declined slightly, and oil prices rebounded [2]. - Domestic: In December 2025, exports increased by 6.6% and imports by 5.7% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The property - related tax - refund policy is extended to 2027, and regulations are strengthened in the new energy vehicle industry. The A - share market received regulatory cooling signals after reaching a new high, and the short - term upward slope may be adjusted [3]. Precious Metals - The price of precious metals continued to be strong on Wednesday, with gold and silver hitting new highs for three consecutive days. The US CPI data in December boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions and potential supply shortages pushed up the prices. The silver price is expected to remain strong in the short term due to factors such as forced short - covering [4][5]. Copper - On Wednesday, the Shanghai copper futures fluctuated at a high level, and the LME copper price stabilized above $13,000. The spot market trading improved, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks on a small scale. The US economic activity is expanding moderately, and the strong economic fundamentals in China and the US provide demand support. The supply of concentrates is growing slowly. It is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillation in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Wednesday, the Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 24,665 yuan/ton, down 0.32%, and the LME aluminum price closed at $3,189.5/ton, down 0.2%. The spot price increased, and the inventory rose. The macro - environment is stable, but high prices suppress downstream consumption. It is expected to continue the high - level oscillation [8][9]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day and strongly at night, and the LME zinc price rose. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and the spot premium continues to decline. The high copper - zinc and zinc - aluminum price ratios support the zinc price, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend with increased volatility [10]. Lead - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead futures fluctuated within a narrow range during the day and rose at night, and the LME lead price rose. The consumption pressure increases due to the anti - dumping tariff on lead - acid batteries, and the social inventory is rising. Although the LME lead inventory is decreasing, the lead price's rebound space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. Tin - On Wednesday, the Shanghai tin futures hit the daily limit for the second time this week and continued to be strong at night, breaking through 440,000 yuan/ton. The LME tin price rose by 9.88%. Although the current supply disruption is limited, the supply of tin ore remains tight. However, the risk accumulates as the price rises continuously, and there may be a callback pressure [12][13]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, the steel futures fluctuated. The spot market trading volume was 88,000 tons. The cost of electric arc furnace steel mills increased slightly, and the profit was in a loss state. The fundamental driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate mainly. The impact of inventory accumulation on the steel price should be noted [14]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated and slightly adjusted. The spot market trading volume was 1.23 million tons. The cost of steel mills decreased slightly, and the loss was gradually reduced. The supply is strong while the demand is weak, with high port inventories and general replenishment by steel mills. It is expected to be under pressure to oscillate [15]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Wednesday, the coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The price of coking coal increased, and the price of coke decreased. The production capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants increased, and the inventory of refined coal rose. The cost of coking enterprises is rising, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern [16][17]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean meal 05 contract fell 0.9%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 1.46%. A US exporter reported selling 334,000 tons of soybeans to China. The Brazilian harvest is underway, and the supply will increase. The short - term trend depends on the pre - holiday stocking demand [18]. Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm oil 05 contract fell 0.55%. Indonesia cancels the B50 policy and will maintain the B40 policy, which eases the supply - tightness expectation. However, the improving export demand provides support. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [19][20]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.55%, with the non-ferrous metals sector showing strength, particularly China Silver Group which rose over 2%, while Xpeng Motors dropped over 2% and Trip.com fell nearly 15% [1] - Dongwu Securities suggests that the window for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year is limited, and the impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy is still forthcoming. If the Fed does not cut rates in Q1, the rebound of Hong Kong stocks will depend more on fundamental factors. The overall strategy for Hong Kong stocks remains a barbell approach, recommending a controlled allocation while waiting for more news [1] - According to China Merchants Securities, the lagging performance of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares is due to overseas liquidity dynamics. The US unemployment rate has dropped to 4.4%, supporting a 95.6% probability of the Fed pausing rate cuts in January. The stabilization of the Shanghai Composite Index above 4,000 points limits the downside for Hong Kong stocks. Despite lacking hot topics like commercial aerospace and military sectors, a recovery in sentiment may drive southbound capital to boost the tech sector [1] Group 2 - Industrial Securities prioritizes recommending leading internet companies in China's AI sector, expecting a resonance of buying from both domestic and foreign investors. They also suggest focusing on dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, including opportunities in insurance, banking, energy, property management, and public utilities. Additionally, they highlight new consumption trends, particularly in traditional service-oriented sectors, Gen Z consumption, and high-end consumer goods [2] - Zheshang International expresses optimism for sectors benefiting from policy support, such as new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology. They also see stable performance and stock price trends in undervalued state-owned enterprises, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and public utility dividend stocks benefiting from the interest rate cut cycle. The spring performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2026 is expected to be driven by "AI applications + PPI improvement + expanded domestic demand," with a focus on quality targets in these areas [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual commodity ratings can be inferred from the trend strength: - **Positive Outlook**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Tin, Aluminum, PX, PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][9][19][23][62][73][124] - **Neutral Outlook**: Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Industrial Silicon, Polycrystalline Silicon, Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal, Logs, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Pure Benzene, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Eggs, Peanuts [26][30][31][36][39][40][43][45][49][53][57][59][142][150][158][159][162][170][175][182] - **Negative Outlook**: Zinc, PVC, Caustic Soda, Rubber, Benzene Ethylene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Live Pigs [12][121][81][70][103][107][112][113][153][166][178] Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and market news. It suggests that investors should pay attention to factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and geopolitical events when making investment decisions. For example, for PX and PTA, although the supply is relatively loose, the cost - end support from oil prices may drive the prices up, but the decline in downstream demand needs to be monitored [68]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The price is affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate policy [5]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high. The price shows a strong upward trend [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strengthening of LME spot premium supports the price. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, but the production of some major copper producers has declined [9][11]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper - level pressure. The price is affected by factors such as inventory changes and macro - news [12]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The market is influenced by macro - economic data and industry news [16]. - **Tin**: Strong upward movement. The price has increased significantly [19]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly. Alumina is in range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [23]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects the oil price, which in turn impacts the prices of related chemical products such as PX, PTA, and MEG [62]. - **PTA**: The polyester production - cut plan has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength. The price is influenced by cost and downstream demand [62]. - **MEG**: The downside space of valuation is limited [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [65]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price [67]. - **Sugar**: Weak operation [68]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [69]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; weak operation. The price is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and spot freight rates [126].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy is recommended as they tend to move upwards [2]. - For the black metals sector, which experiences significant fluctuations, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals, as they rebound and rise, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts. For example, the latest price of copper futures (CU2602) is 103,390, down 520 (- 0.50%) with a trading volume of 16.55 million lots and an open interest of 15.95 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: It shows the volume and open - interest put - call ratios (PCR) of different metal options. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.40, with a change of - 0.05, and the open - interest PCR is 0.66, with a change of 0.02 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are analyzed. The pressure point of copper is 110,000 and the support point is 98,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility data of various metal options are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, etc. The at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 33.62% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options; volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility seller's option combination strategy; spot long - hedging strategy - hold a spot long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, Lithium Carbonate**: Similar strategies are provided, mainly including directional strategies (such as bull spread combination strategies for some), volatility strategies (such as short - volatility strategies or selling call + put option combination strategies), and spot hedging strategies [10][11][12]. - **Precious Metals (Silver)**: Directional strategy - construct a bull spread combination strategy of call options; volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility option seller's combination strategy with a bullish bias; spot hedging strategy - hold a spot long position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [13]. - **Black Metals**: - **Rebar**: Volatility strategy - construct a short - volatility selling call + put option combination strategy with a bearish bias; spot long - covered strategy - hold a spot long position + sell call options [14]. - **Iron Ore, Ferroalloys, Industrial Silicon, Glass**: Similar strategies are given, covering directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies [14][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively presents macro - economic data, commodity investment information, financial news, bond and stock market trends. It shows that in 2025, China's foreign trade reached a record high, and various industries such as metals, energy, and agriculture have different price and market changes. The financial market also experiences policy - driven and market - based adjustments [2][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1] - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly higher than the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2% [1] - In November 2025, social financing scale was 24,888 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan [1] - In December 2025, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports totaled 45.47 trillion yuan, with exports growing 6.1% and imports growing 0.5% [2] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced trading rules for lithium carbonate futures LC2701 and polysilicon futures PS2701 contracts [2] - On January 14, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 31 had negative basis [3] 3.2.2 Metals - On January 15, spot silver hit a record high of $93.68 per ounce. On January 14, domestic silver futures rose 8% [4] - Tungsten prices continued to rise in 2026. On January 14, black tungsten concentrate prices exceeded 500,000 yuan per ton [5] - In December 2025, China's rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year to 4,392 tons [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - In December 2025, China's steel product exports reached 11.3 million tons, and annual exports increased by 7.5% to 119 million tons [7] - In 2025, China's iron ore imports increased by 1.8% to 1.26 billion tons [8] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The US government expects more Venezuelan oil to enter the market in the coming days and weeks [9] - OPEC maintained its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day and predicted 1.34 million barrels per day for 2027 [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - In early January, most agricultural product prices in the circulation field rose, with live pigs hitting a new high since September 2025 [10] - In early January, soybean prices fell by 2.12% month - on - month, and cotton prices rose by 1.97% month - on - month [11] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 14, the central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 212.2 billion yuan [13] - On January 15, the central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of 6 - month term repurchase operations, with an additional 300 billion yuan [13] 3.3.2 Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on January 15 to introduce the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies in supporting high - quality economic development [15] - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached a record high, and the government continued to promote fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand [15][16] - The three - department deployment regulates the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry [18] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market was volatile in the morning, and bond yields mostly declined in the late session [23] - The exchange - traded bond market showed that most of the Vanke bonds were weak [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.15% [25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9734 on January 14, up 31 points [28] - The US dollar index fell 0.11% in New York trading [28] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that during the new debt - resolution cycle, the transformation of urban investment platforms will shift from quantity reduction to quality improvement [29] - CICC believes that the Fed will likely keep interest rates unchanged in January and may cut rates in March [30] 3.4 Stock Market News - On January 14, the A - share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with a turnover approaching 4 trillion yuan [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.56% [32] - Regulatory authorities put forward three - pronged supervision requirements for fund dividends [33] - The single - day trading volume of domestic ETFs exceeded 700 billion yuan on Wednesday [33]

2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 碳酸锂： 17 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 18 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 26 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.04%报 111.270 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.08%报 107.930 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 105.655 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.334 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 14 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2408 亿 元 7 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 1月15日，财通基金2026年投资策略会于上海举办，广发证券首席经济学家郭磊发表相关演讲。 郭磊在宏观展望中提出一个关键判断：在全球产业链重构与能源转型背景下，有色金属的战略地位显著 提升，其角色类似于过去几十年中的原油，已成为影响全球资源格局和资产价格的核心叙事之一。这一 观点为理解当前资源品行情提供了顶层框架。 郭磊在宏观展望中提出一个关键判断：在全球产业链重构与能源转型背景下，有色金属的战略地位显著 提升，其角色类似于过去几十年中的原油，已成为影响全球资源格局和资产价格的核心叙事之一。这一 观点为理解当前资源品行情提供了顶层框架。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：常福强 责任编辑：常福强 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 1月15日，财通基金2026年投资策略会于上海举办，广发证券首席经济学家郭磊发表相关演讲。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery. In December, exports and imports increased significantly. In 2025, imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil reached record highs, while coal imports decreased significantly, and rare - earth exports reached a record high [8]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term due to the game between industrial and secondary market funds, with the margin depending on the guidance of the Indonesian government's statements [9][10]. - Tin prices have room to rise, but attention should be paid to the profit - taking pressure near the integer level of 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Foreign Trade - In December, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The export amount in December exceeded 350 billion US dollars, reaching a record high. In 2025, soybean imports reached 112 million tons, iron ore imports reached 1.26 billion tons, and crude oil imports reached 578 million tons, all hitting record highs and increasing for three consecutive years. Coal imports decreased by 9.6%, the largest decline in a decade. In December, rare - earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year, and the annual export volume reached 62,585 tons, the highest in at least 11 years [8]. Nickel - The reality fundamentals of nickel are weak, with over - supply pressure and the expected commissioning of low - cost wet - process projects. However, the main trading anchor of the market is the Indonesian nickel ore policy, and the attention of the secondary market to commodities has significantly increased, with sufficient commodity capital liquidity. - In the industrial perspective, there is a wait - and - see attitude towards the quota policy. In the secondary market perspective, there is a long - term view of buying on dips, focusing on the end of the "dividend" cycle of low - price ore attracting smelting investment and possible policy changes in the future. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to consider using options in trading and pay attention to structural opportunities [9][10]. Tin - Tin prices have been rising recently. The fundamentals of tight supply, relatively dry domestic tin ore and tin ingot inventories, and the price - insensitivity of downstream demand support the rise. The landslide in the core tin - mining area in the Congo (Kinshasa) may have also contributed to the rise. It is believed that tin prices still have room to rise, but attention should be paid to profit - taking pressure near 450,000 yuan/ton [11]. Other Commodities - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment is rising [15]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high [15]. - **Copper**: The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports the price [15][22]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper pressure [15][25]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventories supports the price [15][28]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly [15][35]. - **Alumina**: Oscillating within a range [15][35]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [15][35]. - **Platinum**: Oscillating and adjusting [15][38]. - **Palladium**: Following a slight decline [15][38]. - **Stainless steel**: The price of ferronickel raises the oscillation center, and the market is betting on the Indonesian policy [15][43]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Oscillating at a high level, paying attention to the resumption of production of overseas mines [15][48]. - **Industrial silicon**: Downstream production cuts lead to weakening demand [15][51]. - **Polysilicon**: In a bottom - oscillating state [15][52]. - **Iron ore**: The valuation is high, and caution is needed when chasing up [15][55]. - **Rebar**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][57]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - **Silicomanganese**: Oscillating widely [15][61]. - **Coke**: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - **Coking coal**: Oscillating at a high level [15][65]. - **Steam coal**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is adjusting narrowly in the short - term [15][69]. - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly [15][71]. - **Para - xylene**: The cost support is strong [15][75]. - **PTA**: The polyester production cut plan is increasing, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength [15][75]. - **MEG**: The downside space of the valuation is limited [15][75]. - **Rubber**: Oscillating widely [15][83]. - **Synthetic rubber**: The center is moving up [15][87]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and the futures and spot markets continue to resonate [15][90]. - **PP**: The downstream rush for exports supports propylene, and the cost support for PP is strong [15][92]. - **Caustic soda**: Oscillating weakly [15][95]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating [15][100]. - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet is stable [15][105]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support [15][109]. - **Urea**: Oscillating upward in the medium - term [15][114]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating in the short - term [15][118]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [15][122]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [15][127]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and the trend is strong [15][128]. - **PVC**: Oscillating weakly [15][136]. - **Fuel oil**: Rising significantly, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term [15][139]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Mainly following the rise, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market has slightly narrowed [15][139]. - **Container shipping index (European line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; operating weakly [15][141]. - **Staple fiber**: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in TA and a short position in PF [15][157]. - **Bottle chips**: Oscillating strongly, holding a long position in the near - term contract and a short position in the far - term contract [15][157]. - **Offset printing paper**: Hold short positions [15][160]. - **Pure benzene**: Oscillating mainly in the short - term [15][165]. - **Palm oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO spread is expected to shrink [15][168]. - **Soybean oil**: The momentum of US soybeans is limited, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude oil [15][168]. - **Soybean meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [15][172]. - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating [15][172]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price [15][175]. - **Sugar**: Mainly operating weakly [15][179]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [15][183]. - **Egg**: The spot market is profitable, and the sentiment in the far - term contracts is weakening [15][189]. - **Live pig**: The demand expectation is priced in advance [15][192]. - **Peanut**: Oscillating [15][196].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding investment strategies and advice [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Tin**: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices have reached a record high. Supply may increase as Myanmar's tin mine复产 progresses, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and options are recommended for trading [2][31][35]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal trading in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices follow futures. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [3][59]. - **Pigs**: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [4][74]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: A - shares were volatile at a high level. The TMT sector was hot, while the large - finance sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis of some contracts changed [5][6]. - **News**: The margin ratio for margin trading has been adjusted, and overseas, the US is considering responses to the Iranian situation. A - share trading volume continued to increase, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: A - shares may have limited downward space after a pull - back. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH appropriately. Use bull spreads for small - and medium - cap indexes [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Most treasury bond futures closed higher. The yield of some bonds decreased [8]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net investment was 2122 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, but the central bank's long - term investment may stabilize short - term fluctuations [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The bond market is in a short - term oscillating situation. It is recommended to continue to wait and see on a single - side strategy and tend to steepen the curve on a curve strategy [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US economic data showed consumption and inflation resilience. The Fed's Beige Book indicated economic improvement, and the dollar index was stable. Precious metals generally rose, with gold and silver reaching new highs [11][13]. - **Outlook**: The US economy and employment are weak. Geopolitical risks drive capital to allocate precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to have a higher price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [13][14]. Shipping (Container Shipping Index - European Line) - **Index Performance**: The SCFIS European line index and some shipping rates increased, while the SCFI composite index decreased slightly [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Global container capacity increased, and demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - **Logic and Suggestions**: The futures price oscillated upwards, but the spot price is in a downward cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories are accumulating. Supply and demand are affected by factors such as US inflation data and the situation in Venezuela. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [16][19]. - **Alumina**: The spot price is loose, and the futures price oscillates widely. The core contradiction is between policy expectations and a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - **Aluminum**: The price is strong, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamental situation is under pressure, with increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended not to chase the price and consider long positions after a pull - back [23][25]. - **Zinc**: The price center has shifted upwards, and the spot premium has decreased. Supply is affected by mine shortages and smelter production cuts, and demand is suppressed by high prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long term and hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [28][31]. - **Tin**: The price has reached a record high. Supply may increase, and demand shows regional differences. It is recommended to wait and see [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand varies in different sectors. The market is affected by Indonesian policies and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to have a bullish view [35][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates strongly, driven by raw material costs. Supply pressure eases slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to expect a strong - oscillating trend [39][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price oscillates widely. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand has some resilience. Social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [43][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price oscillates, with support at 48,000 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46][48]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price oscillates strongly. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to production cut implementation [48][50]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation phase, and steel prices oscillate. Spot prices are stable to weak, costs are rising, and production is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in January [50][52]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is facing the off - season, and port inventories are accumulating. The futures price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand has some support. It is recommended to trade within a range [53][54]. - **Coking Coal**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [55][59]. - **Coke**: The price oscillates. After the fourth price cut, the market is stable. Supply and demand are improving, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [60][64]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates. Supply is at a low level, and demand has some support from steelmaking and non - steel sectors. It is recommended to go long on dips [65][66]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates. Supply is at a neutral - to - low level, and demand has support from steelmaking. Manganese ore prices are strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [67][70]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The auction premium is limited, and soybean meal oscillates. The US soybean supply and demand situation affects the market, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [71][73]. - **Pigs**: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [74][75]. - **Corn**: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. Northeast China has a strong reluctance to sell, and downstream demand for restocking exists. Policy auctions are ongoing. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy implementation [76][78]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Brazilian and Indian production situations affect the market, and domestic sales are affected by the Spring Festival [79][80]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillates at a low level, and the domestic cotton price stops falling and stabilizes. The US cotton supply and demand situation and domestic inventory and sales affect the market [81][83]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices are stable to rising, and the market digestion speed is acceptable. Supply is in an oversupply situation, and demand is supported by the Spring Festival. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [84][85]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of various oils and fats oscillate. Palm oil is affected by inventory pressure, soybean oil is affected by the US - Iran relationship and supply, and rapeseed oil is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to pay attention to price trends [86][88]. - **Jujubes**: The futures price rebounds, but the supply - demand situation is still oversupplied. It is recommended to short on rallies and test the support at 9000 yuan/ton [89][90]. - **Apples**: The futures price is strong, driven by market sentiment. Short - term factors support the price, but long - term consumption may be affected. It is recommended to use long positions with put - option protection [91]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and have limited downward space in the medium term [92][93]. - **PTA**: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and have a low - long strategy in the medium term [94]. - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is expected to follow raw materials and oscillate. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and shrink the processing fee on a high level [95]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply and demand are both decreasing in January. It is expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and expect the processing fee to oscillate within a certain range [96][97]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is under pressure. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 yuan for EG2605, do reverse arbitrage for EG5 - 9, and sell out - of - the - money call options [98]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is under pressure due to high inventory. Demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread [99]. - **Styrene**: The price is short - term strong but has limited upward space. Supply is tight in the short term, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for EB03 and shrink the processing fee [100][101]. - **LLDPE**: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3][102][103]. - **PP**: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory pressure has eased. It is recommended to hold PDH profit - expanding positions [103][105]. - **Methanol**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [105]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [106][107]. - **PVC**: The price is affected by export policies. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling positions [108][109]. - **Urea**: The price center has shifted upwards. Supply is high, but agricultural demand in the Su - Wan region has increased. It is expected to be strong in the short term [110][111]. - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - **Glass**: The price is strong. Supply is decreasing, and demand has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [114][115]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price oscillates within a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [116][118]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Cost is rising, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and do arbitrage between BR2603 and NR2603 [119][120][121].

Group 1: Copper Market Insights - LME three-month copper price reached a new high of $13,188.5 per ton, up $24.5 or 0.19% on January 14, 2023, following a record high of $13,407 [1] - Over the past 12 months, LME copper prices have increased by 44%, driven by mining disruptions, supply shortage concerns, and potential tariffs affecting metal flows to the U.S. [3] - Analyst Ole Hansen noted that demand for hard assets is remarkable due to concerns over currency depreciation and financial risks, while a closing price below $13,000 could trigger a downward trend in copper prices [3] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum price decreased by $11.5 or 0.36%, closing at $3,186.0 per ton [7] - LME three-month zinc price increased by $74.5 or 2.33%, closing at $3,276.0 per ton [8] - LME three-month lead price rose by $17 or 0.82%, closing at $2,078.5 per ton [9] - LME three-month nickel price increased by $1,013 or 5.73%, closing at $18,694.0 per ton [10] - LME three-month tin price surged by $3,934 or 7.94%, closing at $53,462.0 per ton, with speculation driving the price increase [6][4]