1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans and Meals**: - **Soybean Meal**: Big - range oscillation ★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Big - range oscillation ★ [1] - **Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation ★ [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - **Jujube**: Cautiously bullish ★ [1] - **Pork**: Cautiously bullish ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Under the intertwined effects of weak fundamentals and the cost support of China - US trade tariffs, it shows a big - range oscillation. This week, there was a reduction in soybean meal inventory, and the环比 decline of the good - quality rate of US soybeans was bullish. However, there is a risk of a环比 increase in the per - unit yield of US soybeans in the August USDA report next week, so the market is cautious about going long. Pay attention to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Amid the intertwined long and short factors, it presents a big - range market. The recovery of global rapeseed production year - on - year, but there is a risk of a reduction in the per - unit yield of Canadian rapeseed in the new year. The reduction of rapeseed imports from August to October, the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. However, the improvement of the import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather of Canadian rapeseed and the estimated per - unit yield data this month [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea is to go long on dips. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation of Malaysian palm oil in July, which may suppress short - term prices. Pay attention to the final data around the 10th of this month [1][10]. - **Cotton**: The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the improvement expectation of exports is limited. It is expected to be weak after a short - term rebound. In China, the actual sown area and per - unit yield of new cotton increase simultaneously, pushing up the guaranteed output. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and the replenishment of downstream finished products slows down, providing short - term support. Downstream is gradually entering the stocking market, and the orders of textile enterprises have a slight rebound. It is advisable to be cautiously long on dips in the short term [1][14]. - **Jujube**: There are still differences in the market regarding the reduction range of production. At present, it is still doubtful whether there will be an over - expected reduction in production, and there is still speculation risk. The high - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final production is determined. It is advisable to cautiously try long this week [1][17]. - **Pork**: The previous selling of second - fattened pigs and the acceleration of the short - term slaughter rhythm pushed down the pig price. However, considering the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, it still drives some second - fattening speculation. The near - month contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises is expected to boost the far - month contracts. It is advisable to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips [1][21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 823.7 million tons, a环比 increase of 15.20 million tons; 125 oil - mill soybean inventories were 655.59 million tons, a环比 increase of 10.00 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 104.16 million tons, a环比 decrease of 0.15 million tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal were 8.05 days, a环比 decrease of 0.14 days [3]. - **Market Transactions**: On August 5, the far - month basis trading volume soared, reaching a new high in nearly three years, mainly concentrated in the 10 - 1, 11 - 1, and 11 - 12 contracts [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, the coastal main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 11.6 million tons, a环比 decrease of 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 2.7 million tons, a环比 increase of 0.8 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 62.88 million tons, a环比 decrease of 3.66 million tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: Although June - August is the peak season for aquaculture, the substitution effect of soybean meal is enhanced, squeezing the market share of rapeseed meal. The reduction of rapeseed imports from August to October and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal support the price, but the improvement of the import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts pressure [7]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil was 58.22 million tons, a环比 decrease of 3.33 million tons [9]. - **Production Data**: In July 2025, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 9.01% month - on - month to 1.84 billion tons. From August 1 - 5, 2025, the per - unit yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia decreased by 19.32% compared with the same period last month, and the palm oil production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [9]. 3.4 Cotton - **International Situation**: The good - quality rate of US cotton this week remained at 55%, 10% higher than the same period. The non - drought rate in the US cotton - growing areas has gradually decreased to 80%. The newly sown area of cotton in India increased by 7% year - on - year, and the sowing progress was 24%, 2% higher than the same period. The new cotton harvest progress in Brazil has reached 16.7% [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: In China, the per - unit yield of new cotton is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to reach 7.4 billion tons or more. The commercial inventory has decreased to 215.71 million tons, 17.43 million tons lower than the same period. The orders of textile enterprises have a slight rebound, and the gold - nine - silver - ten stocking has gradually started [13]. 3.5 Jujube - **Production Expectation**: The new - season jujube is in the critical fruit - setting period. Some institutions estimate that the new - season production will decrease by 5 - 10% compared with 2022 and 20 - 25% compared with 2024, but other institutions give a conclusion of a 35 - 40% reduction, so the production expectation should be treated with caution [16]. - **Inventory Situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9784 tons, a环比 decrease of 255 tons, higher than the same period by 4379 tons, and the depletion speed has significantly accelerated compared with the previous four weeks [16]. 3.6 Pork - **Supply Situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August is 13.2257 billion heads, a环比 increase of 5.26%. The proportion of large - pig slaughter remains high, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening is also high. In the medium term, the number of newly born piglets from January to June 2025 continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume in the second half of the year will still have room for growth [20]. - **Demand Situation**: It is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has a phased weakening [20].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on August 8, 2025, covering multiple agricultural products including soybeans, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Group 2: Market Conditions and Analysis Soybeans/Meals - Thursday night, US soybeans rose slightly, supported by low - valuation bargain - hunting and position adjustment before the USDA report. Domestic soybean meal was supported by cost due to lack of US soybean purchases and strong Brazilian quotes, and was trading near the break - even price. Domestic soybean meal spot was stable on Thursday, with an offer of 2,910 yuan/ton in East China, and the transaction volume decreased while the pick - up was good [2] - According to MYSTEEL statistics, 2.2539 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and 2.213 million tons are expected to be crushed this week [2] - US soybean production areas are expected to have slightly less rainfall in the next two weeks, mainly in the central region, and the temperature is at a neutral level. In Brazil, the premium is rising strongly and has stabilized in the past two days. Overall, US soybeans are in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver, but the domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward fluctuation due to a single supply source [3] Oils - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12% in the first 10 days of June, decrease by 5.29% - 6.16% in the first 15 days, decrease by 3.57% - 7.31% in the first 20 days, decrease by 9.2% - 15.22% in the first 25 days, and decrease by 6.71% - 9.58% for the whole month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% in the first 10 days of July 2025, 17.06% in the first 15 days, 6.19% in the first 20 days, 5.52% in the first 25 days, and 7.07% for the whole month [7] - Brazilian 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest pace in nearly 20 years, with an estimated area of 48.13 million hectares (118.9 million acres), a 1.43% increase from the previous year [7] Sugar - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton or 0.76% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups' quotes were 5,920 - 6,040 yuan/ton, down 20 - 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups' quotes were 5,750 - 5,790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotes of processing sugar mills were 6,100 - 6,200 yuan/ton, down 0 - 50 yuan/ton [12] - As of the week of August 6, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 80, compared with 79 in the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.5777 million tons, compared with 3.5531 million tons in the previous week. In July, Brazil exported 455,000 tons of sugar to China, a decrease of 305,000 tons from June and 130,000 tons from the same period last year [12] Cotton - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13,835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) against the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,165 yuan/ton [15] - In July, Brazil exported 127,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 6,000 tons from June and 40,000 tons from the same period last year. Among them, exports to China were 8,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from June but a decrease of 27,000 tons from the same period last year [15] Eggs - The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas having narrow - range adjustments. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.86 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.6 yuan/jin, while the price in Guantao rose 0.07 yuan to 2.69 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, farmers were actively selling, the overall market sales improved slightly, and the participants' enthusiasm increased slightly [17] Pigs - The domestic pig price continued to fall yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.14 yuan to 13.86 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.11 yuan to 13.26 yuan/kg. The supply for slaughter was abundant, the terminal demand was limited, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high [19] Group 3: Trading Strategies Soybeans/Meals - The import cost of foreign - sourced soybeans is currently fluctuating due to low valuation, positive EPA policies, and the fact that soybeans from September to January are solely supplied by Brazil. With global protein raw material supply in excess, the upward momentum of soybean import cost is insufficient. The domestic soybean meal market is still in a season of oversupply, and it is expected that the spot market may start destocking at the end of September. Therefore, the soybean meal market has both long and short factors. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress on Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. In terms of arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract when the spread is low [5] Oils - Fundamentally, the US biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the center of the oil market. From July to September, if demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, supporting the quotes in producing areas to fluctuate strongly. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as annual - level oil production increase expectations, high - end palm oil production in the near - term, the RVO rules not being finalized, macro factors, and demand adjustments by major importing countries. The market should be viewed as fluctuating [10] Sugar - In the second half of the year, the increasing import supply will squeeze the sales space of domestic - produced sugar. The profit from out - of - quota spot sugar imports has been at the highest level in the past five years, and the futures price is over - valued. Coupled with the expectation of an increase in domestic planting area in the next season, assuming that the foreign market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to fall [13] Cotton - The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures is bearish. Fundamentally, as the basis strengthens, the downstream consumption is average recently, the operating rate remains at a historically low level, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. The current futures price has fallen below the trend line, so it should be viewed as bearish in the short term [16] Eggs - The increase in newly - laid hens and the difficulty in culling old hens have led to a large supply, causing the spot price to perform worse than expected in the peak season. Near - term short - sellers should continue to squeeze the premium, and the market is dominated by reverse - spread logic. However, as the market still expects a rebound in the peak seasons of August and September, with the intensification of differences in the market as positions increase, it is easy to have reverse fluctuations when the spot price rises. Considering the high inventory throughout the peak season and the fact that subsequent contracts on the futures market cannot reflect the spot price peak, it is advisable to short after a rebound in the medium term, and short - term positions can be appropriately reduced at low prices to avoid risks [18] Pigs - The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and the original logic of oversupply has been reconstructed, resulting in a significant increase in the valuation of each futures contract, especially the long - term ones. For near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter increases, after the current active weight - reduction has released pressure in advance, the large difference between the prices of fat and standard pigs may lead to active weight - gain, reducing the possibility of significant destocking in the early fourth quarter, and the spread may move towards a positive structure. For long - term contracts, the long - term policy's regulation of sow capacity cannot be disproven for now, and the spread tends to be in a reverse structure. With the industrial structure being reconstructed, the uncertainty of single - side trading increases, and more attention should be paid to spread opportunities [20] Group 4: Key Charts - The report includes multiple charts on agricultural products, such as the inventory of major oil mills' soybean meal, granulated rapeseed meal, port soybeans, domestic three major oils, and Malaysian palm oil, as well as production, export, rainfall, and other related data charts [21][38][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed trend. Pig prices are rebounding due to policy - driven capacity reduction and expected demand growth during peak seasons. Jujube prices are rising strongly because of expected production decline and upcoming holiday stocking. Sugar prices continue to fall due to the expected increase in imported sugar. Other products like soybean oil, palm oil, etc., also have their own influencing factors and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Pig prices are rebounding, supported by policy - driven anti - involution capacity reduction and expected demand growth during the back - to - school season and Mid - Autumn Festival. Jujube prices are rising strongly as high - temperature weather in production areas causes concerns about reduced new jujube production, and the stocking period for Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals has begun. Sugar prices continue to fall to new lows due to the expected increase in imported sugar [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Pig - The main 2511 contract of pigs is oscillating upwards, reaching a one - week high. Although high - temperature weather still weakens consumption demand, with the temperature dropping after the Beginning of Autumn, fresh pork sales are expected to improve. The upcoming back - to - school season will boost centralized consumption, and farmers may hold back pigs for weight gain. The strategy is to hold a light long position in the main 2511 contract and close short positions in the near - month 2509 contract, with support at 13920 and resistance at 14060 [2]. 3.2.2 Jujube - The main 2601 contract of jujube has risen strongly to a new high. High - temperature and dry weather in August (the fruit expansion period) in Xinjiang has raised concerns about reduced yields. Preliminary estimates suggest that new jujube production will be 56 - 62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20 - 25% and a 5 - 10% decrease compared to normal years. The stocking period for Mid - Autumn and National Day festivals has started, which is expected to drive inventory clearance. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 10950 and resistance at 11350 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The main 2509 contract of soybean oil continued to rise to a new high but reduced its gains. Domestic oil mills have high operating rates, resulting in high production and inventory. However, oil mills are actively exporting to relieve supply pressure, and the market still expects a supply gap in the future and an increase in demand in the second half of August. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8336 and resistance at 8500 [5]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to fall to a one - month low, pressured by the expected increase in imported sugar. As the quantity of processed sugar increases, the de - stocking of domestic sugar may slow down, and the start of production in northern sugar mills in September will also add pressure. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5650 and resistance at 5699 [7]. 3.2.5 Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract of palm oil continued to close down, undergoing high - level adjustment. The market expects an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and weak exports in the August 11 MPOB monthly supply - demand report, with high inventory pressure. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 8900 and resistance at 9076 [10]. 3.2.6 Corn - The main 2509 contract of corn continued to rebound from a low level but faced resistance. The continuous auction of imported corn by Sinograin and wheat substitution, along with weak downstream demand, still pressure the corn market. However, low inventory, low imports, and weather risks for new corn support the price rebound. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 2250 and resistance at 2271 [11][13]. 3.2.7 Eggs - The main 2509 contract of eggs continued to rebound from a low level but did not change the downward trend. The high inventory of laying hens (1.292 billion in July, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 7.14%) and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs exert supply pressure. However, some markets have bottom - fishing sentiment after the price drops. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 3350 and resistance at 3410 [14]. 3.2.8 Bean Meal - The 2509 contract of bean meal first declined and then rose, continuing high - level fluctuations. High domestic oil - mill operating rates in July led to increased bean - meal output and inventory. However, the rising cost of imported soybeans and expected supply shortages in the future support the price. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 3006 and resistance at 3050 [16]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2509 contract of cotton oscillated and closed down, showing narrow - range fluctuations. Xinjiang cotton is growing well, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Although commercial inventory is at a low level, the expectation of issuing sliding - scale duty quotas is increasing, and downstream textile demand is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 13600 and resistance at 13800 [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract of apples continued to reverse and rise, entering an upward trend. Apple inventory is low (57.61 million tons as of July 31, 41.05 million tons lower than last year, and 53.39 million tons as of August 6, continuing to decline). The price of early - maturing apples in the west is higher than last year. The strategy is to go long on dips, with support at 7900 and resistance at 8000 [20].

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the cotton, sugar, and pulp sectors are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted in the short - term and will face new pressure in the fourth quarter with new cotton listing [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and terminal demand improvement is limited. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Directory Cotton Market News and Key Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,690 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,178 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [1] - Vietnamese textile enterprises have low interest in raw material procurement, and some ring - spinning factories plan to reduce the operating rate [1] Market Analysis - Globally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient, and the 25/26 season will be supply - loose. US cotton has high sown area, improved drought, and weak export contracts [2] - Domestically, commercial inventory is decreasing fast, but new cotton has a strong yield - increasing expectation. Terminal demand is weak, and the upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,683 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [4] - As of August 1, 2025, the sugarcane planting area in India was about 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 0.164 million hectares compared to the same period last year. The 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - International raw sugar is under pressure due to Brazil's accelerated crushing in the first half of July and optimistic production estimates in India and Thailand [4] - Domestically, domestic sugar sales progress is fast, but import volume is expected to increase, restricting the upward space. There may be a tight - inventory situation in the fourth quarter, but new - season production increase will bring downward pressure [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term sugar futures are expected to fluctuate within a range, and long - term prices are expected to decline [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Russian softwood pulp price was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The import wood pulp spot market was mainly stable, with only sporadic price increases [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. Paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious, and terminal demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Short - term pulp prices are difficult to break away from the bottom [8]

2025 年 08 月 07 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 豆一：单向拍卖开启，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） DCE豆一2509 | 4118 | -3（-0.07%） | +6（+0.15%） 4124 | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3026 | -4（-0.13%） | 3013 -14（-0.46%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 985.25 | -5.25（-0.53%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 281.1 | -3.7（-1.30%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2950～3000， 较昨-10至持平； 60， 持平； 8-9月M2509+30/+60， M2601+10/+30/+60/+70， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2680 - 2740. The market is influenced by factors such as good demand, low oil - mill开机, and low inventory. Although China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential. The market will likely return to range - bound trading due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the impact of soybean meal [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the tight supply expectation in the spot market while demand remains strong. - The slightly reduced annual production of Canadian rapeseed supports the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing with uncertain results. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From July 28 to August 6, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 316 - 381. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2509 contract showed a weak oscillation [14][22]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 1.9 million tons, up 25.83% week - on - week from 1.51 million tons last week and down 44.12% year - on - year from 3.4 million tons in the same period last year. The import volume of rapeseed in July was lower than expected, the inventory of oil - mill rapeseed increased slightly, and the inventory of rapeseed meal remained low [9][27][29]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26]. 5. Position Data - Not provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal showed a pattern of rising and then falling. Good demand and technical consolidation, along with low oil - mill开机 and low inventory, supported the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal entered the peak season, and although the import volume of rapeseed increased, the short - term inventory pressure on oil mills was not significant. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 2640, with a basis of - 105, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: As mentioned above, the inventory situation is favorable [9]. - **Market Trend**: The price was above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward [9]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, rapeseed meal rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the price is expected to return to range - bound trading [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: With repeated macro - sentiment, it is advisable to go long at low levels [2][4] - Soybean oil: It will fluctuate at high levels, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and the Dalian soybean meal will adjust and fluctuate [2][10] - Soybean: One - way auctions have started, and the market will fluctuate [2][10] - Corn: It will run weakly [2][13] - Sugar: It will trade in a narrow range [2][16] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2][21] - Eggs: Market sentiment has been realized [2][27] - Live pigs: Near - term spot pressure persists [2][29] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2][35] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,970 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.04%, and night - session closing price was 9,006 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.40%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,406 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.74%, and night - session closing price was 8,422 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.19% [4] - **Macro and industry news**: From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 was estimated to increase by 9.01% [5][7] - **Trend intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [9] Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean 2509's day - session closing price was 4118 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and night - session closing price was 4124 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.15%. DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 3026 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.13%, and night - session closing price was 3013 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.46% [10] - **Macro and industry news**: On August 6, CBOT soybeans closed lower, following the decline in the soybean meal market. The US soybean growing area has good weather conditions. The US Department of Agriculture will release the weekly export sales report on Thursday. On August 8, 10:30, CNGC plans to auction 32,294 tons of domestic soybeans [10][12] - **Trend intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean have a trend intensity of 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamental data**: Important spot prices such as Jinzhou's closing price decreased by 10 yuan/ton. C2509's day - session closing price was 2,259 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 2,267 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.35% [13] - **Macro and industry news**: Northern corn port prices decreased, and prices in other regions also showed certain changes [14] - **Trend intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [15] Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 16.04 cents/pound with a decline of 0.05. The mainstream spot price was 5970 yuan/ton with a decline of 20 [16] - **Macro and industry news**: Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress has accelerated; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - term average. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [16] - **Trend intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [19] Cotton - **Fundamental data**: CF2601's day - session closing price was 13,850 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 13830 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14% [21] - **Macro and industry news**: The domestic cotton spot market has weak trading, and the cotton yarn market is stable. ICE cotton futures first rose and then fell [22] - **Trend intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [25] Eggs - **Fundamental data**: Egg 2509's closing price was 3,378 yuan/500 kg with an increase of 0.99%. Egg 2601's closing price was 3,624 yuan/500 kg with a decline of 0.11% [27] - **Trend intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [27] Live pigs - **Fundamental data**: Henan's spot price was 14,080 yuan/ton with a decline of 100. The closing price of live pig 2509 was 13,810 yuan/ton with a decline of 75 [31] - **Trend intensity**: Live pigs have a trend intensity of - 1 [32] - **Market logic**: The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the price increase was less than expected. The market pressure is large, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be weak. The far - end is supported by macro - sentiment, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread [33] Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,400 yuan/ton with no change. PK510's closing price was 8,092 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.22% [35] - **Spot market focus**: New peanuts in some areas are about to be listed, and the price of old peanuts is stable [36] - **Trend intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends, with some commodities rising and others falling. Factors such as export expectations, demand changes, supply pressures, and seasonal factors influence the prices of different agricultural products [1] 3. Summary by Variety (1) Soybean Oil - The soybean oil main contract 2509 continued to rise strongly to a new high, driven by strong exports and expected demand growth. Indian soybean oil imports in July increased by 38% month - on - month to 495,000 tons. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold a light long position [2] (2) Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2509 continued to fall to a one - month low, pressured by the expectation of increased imported sugar. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [3] (3) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2509 adjusted slightly at a high level. Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, but domestic inventory decreased slightly last week. Technically, it is slightly strong in the short - term, and the strategy is short - term trading [6] (4) Corn - The corn main contract 2509 rebounded at a low level, but the downward trend remained unchanged. Supply increased and demand was weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [9] (5) Eggs - The egg main contract 2509 rebounded at a low level, but the downward trend remained. Supply pressure was high due to high laying - hen inventory, and demand was weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [10][12] (6) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2509 adjusted slightly. Near - month contracts faced high - inventory pressure, but future supply may be tight. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is short - term trading [13][15] (7) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2509 rebounded slightly and fluctuated at a low level. New - year cotton is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold a light short position [16] (8) Live Pigs - The live pig market showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The 2509 contract continued to fall, while the 2511 contract rebounded. Consumption is expected to improve in the future. The strategy is to hold a light short position on the 2509 contract [18] (9) Red Dates - The red date main contract 2601 oscillated upwards. New - date production is expected to decrease, and demand is expected to pick up after立秋. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold a light long position [20] (10) Apples - The apple main contract 2510 reversed and rose. Apple inventory is low, and demand is expected to be boosted in the future. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to buy on dips [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean 1: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Corn: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Live Pigs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] - Eggs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - For the overall agricultural products market, various factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand, and tariffs are influencing the prices of different products, and each product has its own short - to - medium - term trends and uncertainties [2][3][4] - The prices of different agricultural products are affected by different factors, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors for each product, such as weather for soybeans, tariffs for soybeans and bean meal, and seasonal demand for oils [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean 1 - This Friday, there will be a competitive auction of domestic soybeans with a supply of 32,000 tons. Northeast soybean is in the pod - setting stage, and the weather is favorable for growth. The price difference between Bean 1 and Bean 2 continues to decline, and Bean 1 is weaker than imported soybeans. The decline of imported soybeans has slowed down and is in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to domestic soybean weather and policy [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The excellent rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period of history. The weather in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas is normal, and US soybeans are oscillating weakly. In China, Brazilian soybeans continue to arrive at ports, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the bean meal inventory has reached a high level this year. Before the tariff issue is clear, the bean meal market is in a state of oscillation [3] Bean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic bean oil is strong today, stronger than palm oil. There are uncertainties in the long - term supply of bean oil due to tariffs, and it is in the demand peak season in the fourth quarter. The medium - term US bean oil is likely to be oscillating neutral or slightly strong. The price difference between foreign and domestic bean oil may converge to zero or negative values, mainly through domestic price increases. A long - position strategy on dips is maintained for bean oil and palm oil, and palm oil may face a production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal is oscillating, with a slight increase in rapeseed meal and a slight decline in rapeseed oil. The Canadian rapeseed futures price continues to decline due to favorable weather. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import situation has not improved. The rapeseed meal benefits from the seasonal peak of aquatic feed. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to China - Canada economic and trade relations and domestic inventory changes [6] Corn - As of August 3, the excellent rate of US corn is 73%, and the price is still falling. In China, the auction of imported corn has been carried out 11 times since July, with a total of about 268,800 tons, and the transaction rate has been decreasing. Another auction of 19,930 tons will be held on August 8. The continuous supply of grain sources has affected market expectations, and the Dalian corn futures are weak. The new - season corn planting area may expand, and there is a high probability of a bumper harvest. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has declined slightly and remains weak. Except for the 09 contract, other far - month contracts have rebounded slightly with increasing positions. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. The long - term focus is on when the industry's capacity reduction will be realized [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and most provinces are still experiencing price declines. The 09 contract on the futures market has rebounded with significant position reduction as short - sellers take profits. Future attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the spot market. The egg price needs to decline further to achieve in - depth capacity reduction. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and the off - season contracts in the second half of this year are relatively weak, suggesting a reverse spread strategy on the futures market [9]

芝商所官网数据显示，截至8月1日当周，CBOT大豆可交割库存为686.9万蒲式耳，较此前一周的694.7 万蒲式耳减少1.12%，较上年同期的269.7万蒲式耳增加154.69%。 监测显示，8月1日，全国主要油厂进口大豆库存718万吨，周环比上升6万吨，月环比上升19万吨，同比 减少68万吨，较过去三年均值上升84万吨。 Safras&Mercado称，巴西2025/26年度大豆销售量达到预期产量的16.8%，上年同期为22.5%；2024/25年 度大豆销售量达到预期产量的78.4%，上年同期为82.2%。 8月6日，国内期市油脂油料板块涨跌不一。其中，豆二期货呈现震荡上行走势，截至收盘，主力合约报 3729.00元/吨，小幅上涨0.76%。 【宏观消息速递】 机构观点：预计豆二短期震荡 新世纪期货研报：种植成本支撑美豆，美中西部天气良好，大豆优良率虽下滑但仍居高位，压力美豆， 南美新豆出口持续，预计三季度月均约1000万吨大豆到港，油厂开工率高位，部分油厂豆粕胀库压力， 港口大豆库存持续回升，供应充裕，预计豆二短期震荡，关注美豆天气、大豆到港况。 据欧盟委员会，截至8月3日，欧盟2025/26年度大豆进 ...