Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices face constraints in the short - term and new pressure in the fourth quarter [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] - The pulp market has supply pressure and limited demand improvement. Short - term pulp prices may stay at the bottom [8] Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 3, the budding rate of US cotton was 87%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 2 points slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 55%, 4 points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. The flocculation rate was 5%, 2 points slower than last year and 1 point slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 55%, 10 points higher than last year and 8 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International cotton prices lack obvious drivers and are expected to fluctuate with macro - market sentiment. Domestic cotton prices face constraints due to slow inventory drawdown, low import in the third quarter, and weak terminal demand. In the fourth quarter, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy and treat Zhengzhou cotton as under pressure and in a volatile pattern in the short - term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,697 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area is expected to be 9.1685 million hectares, down 0.6% from last month's estimate and 0.2% from 2024. The production is estimated to be 693 million tons, down 0.1% from last month's estimate and 1.9% from 2024 [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar is in a weak - volatile pattern due to Brazil's accelerated crushing and good supply prospects. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate in a range in the short - term and may have a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but face downward pressure in the long - term [5][6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and a long - term bearish trend [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,160 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,200 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market continued to decline, with prices of some grades in different regions falling [7] Market Analysis - The pulp market has supply pressure due to high port inventory and expected production. Demand is weak both globally and domestically, with limited improvement expected in the second half of the year [8] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy, expect short - term pulp prices to stay at the bottom [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [7] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [8] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating Bearish [9] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [13] - Cotton: Oscillating [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [17] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors, and it is likely to operate strongly in the near future under the stabilization of market sentiment [2][3][7]. - The protein meal market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with the far - month contracts expected to strengthen [8]. - The corn/starch market is currently in a weak state, with short - term uncertainties in old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [9][10]. - The live pig market presents a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation", with high inventory pressure in the short - term and potential supply reduction in the long - term [10]. - The natural rubber market rebounds due to some speculative sentiment, and the short - term performance is expected to follow the macro - wide fluctuations [10][12]. - The synthetic rubber market is supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, and it is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations [13]. - The cotton market returns to fundamental trading, with the price expected to oscillate within a certain range [14]. - The sugar market is under downward pressure due to the increasing supply pressure [15]. - The pulp market remains weak, and the strategy is to pay attention to the reverse spread during the decline [16]. - The log market has limited fundamental changes and is mainly treated within a range [17][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Affected by factors such as short - covering, US policy uncertainty, OPEC+ production increase, good growth of US soybeans, and the production and inventory situation of palm oil and rapeseed oil [2][7]. - **Outlook**: It is likely to operate strongly in the near future, and attention should be paid to the performance of upper technical resistance [3][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans is 69%, and there are still weather risks. Domestically, the short - term supply is sufficient, and there may be a supply gap in the long - term [8]. - **Outlook**: The spot and basis may oscillate at a low level, and the far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Logic**: The supply side has inventory digestion and import auction issues, and the demand side has low acceptance of high - priced grains. The new crop situation is normal [9][10]. - **Outlook**: There are uncertainties in short - term old crop de - stocking, and there is a downward trend after new crop listing [10]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is strong in the short, medium, and long - term, and the demand is weak. The policy has a guiding effect on capacity reduction [10]. - **Outlook**: The market presents a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, and attention should be paid to reverse spread strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: Driven by some speculative sentiment, the short - term fundamentals have no major contradictions [10][12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term performance follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, the raw material market is in a weak downward trend [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, and attention should be paid to device changes [13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level. The price oscillates within a certain range [14]. - **Outlook**: The single - side oscillates, and the range operation is recommended. The reverse spread of the monthly difference is stopped profit at the stage [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term supply pressure increases [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, and the short - term strategy is to short on rebounds [15]. 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The supply pressure of hardwood pulp is high, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: The recent fluctuations follow the macro - situation, and it is expected to oscillate widely [16]. 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The cost increases, the supply pressure eases, and there are both long and short factors in the market [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals change little, and it is mainly operated within the range of 800 - 850 [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with strong performance in the oil sector led by palm oil, while corn, eggs, and other products continue to decline. Each variety is affected by different supply - demand fundamentals and technical factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety [1]. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil 2509 contract rose significantly, driven by cost recovery and a decline in domestic inventories. As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil inventory was 58.22 tons, a 5.41% week - on - week decrease. The import cost rebounded on August 5. However, the weak fundamentals of increasing production and decreasing exports in Malaysia may limit its rebound space [2]. - Technically, the futures price stood above the moving average system, with the MACD green column shrinking. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8964 and resistance at 9106 [3][4]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 2509 contract rose strongly to a new high, boosted by the strength of palm oil. Although domestic oil mills maintained high crushing volumes and soybean oil inventories continued to accumulate, there may be a supply gap in the future. China's exports of soybean oil to India also supported the price [5]. - Technically, the futures price was above the moving average system, with the MACD red column expanding. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8260 and resistance at 8400 [5]. Corn - The corn 2509 contract fell significantly to a four - month low. Supply increased due to continuous auctions of imported corn by CGSGB, continuous wheat substitution, and good new - season corn production. Demand was weak as feed enterprises used previous inventories and deep - processing enterprises had poor profits [7]. - Technically, the futures price was below the moving average system, with the MACD green column expanding after a zero - axis death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2220 and resistance at 2260 [7]. Eggs - The egg 2509 contract continued to decline, hitting a new low for the year. The supply was abundant as the culling of old hens was slow and the number of newly - laid hens increased. The July national in - production laying - hen inventory was about 1.292 billion, a 1.73% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year increase. Demand was weak due to postponed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking and other factors [9]. - Technically, the futures price was far below the moving average system, with the MACD green column significantly expanding after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3390 [9]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract first rose and then declined, with limited upside. The expected high inventory in August (above 1.2 million tons) pressured the price, but the increase in imported soybean costs and concerns about insufficient supply in the fourth quarter provided support [11]. - Technically, the futures price fluctuated above the moving averages. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3014 and resistance at 3050 [11]. Cotton - The cotton 2509 contract's rebound was blocked. Xinjiang's cotton production is expected to be good, and the market anticipates the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas. The downstream textile industry is in a slump, with weak demand for cotton [13]. - Technically, the futures price fell below the moving averages, with the MACD green column continuing after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13535 and resistance at 13750 [13]. Live Pigs - The live pig 2509 contract continued to fall to a one - and - a - half - month low. Supply increased as farmers accelerated the release of production capacity, and demand was weak due to high - temperature weather and increased alternative consumption [15]. - Technically, the futures price continued to fall, with the MACD green column continuing to expand after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13770 and resistance at 14000 [15]. White Sugar - The Zhengzhou white sugar 2509 contract continued to fall, hitting a one - month low. The expectation of increased imported sugar volume pressured the price, and the future increase in processed sugar may slow down the inventory reduction of domestic sugar [17]. - Technically, the futures price was below the moving average system, with the MACD green column continuously expanding after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 5680 and resistance at 5730 [17]. Red Dates - The red date 2601 contract first declined and then rose. There is an expected reduction in new - date production (estimated at 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease). The consumption is in the off - season, and the sample inventory is slowly decreasing [19]. - Technically, the futures price showed a strong trend, with the MACD red column continuing after a golden cross. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 10720 and resistance at 11100 [19]. Apples - The apple 2510 contract continued to rebound, supported by short - covering. As of July 31, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 576,100 tons, 410,500 tons lower than the same period last year. The supply is a mix of old and new apples, and the demand is average [21]. - Technically, the futures price stood above the short - term moving averages. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 7796 and resistance at 7900 [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products. Specific Summaries by Section Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 10 was 4,218.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.39% and an overnight decline of 0.76% [1]. - Brent 10 (ICE) closed at 68.68, with a previous - day decline of 1.21% and an overnight decline of 0.85% [1]. - NYMEX US crude oil 09 closed at 66.24, with a previous - day decline of 1.52% and an overnight decline of 0.94% [1]. - CBOT US soybeans 11 closed at 994.50, with a previous - day increase of 0.66% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8,920, with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 8,330, with a basis of 80 and a basis decline of 2 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2,900, with a basis of - 118 and a basis decline of 9 from the previous day [2]. Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperature and precipitation from August 9 - 13 [4]. - The Midwest planting belt in the US will be mostly dry this week, with soil moisture remaining good. A front has passed, bringing cooler temperatures [6]. International Supply - Demand - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 is expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June [8]. - As of June 30, 2025, 89.6% (5.03 million hectares) of Malaysia's oil palm plantations had MSPO certification [8]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 3, 2025, was 69%, in line with market expectations [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 4, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 33,150 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous trading day [14]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in key regions in China was 2.3611 million tons, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.4% [17]. - The US factory orders in June decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, in line with expectations [17]. Domestic News - On August 4, 2025, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1395, up 101 points (appreciation of the RMB) [19]. - On August 4, 2025, the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows On August 4, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 778 million yuan, with a net inflow of 2.6 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 1.822 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For corn, the high-quality rate of US corn remains good, and the weather is favorable for corn growth in the Midwest, leading to high output prospects and continuous pressure on international corn prices. In the domestic market, the supply is becoming more abundant, and downstream demand is average, with weak procurement enthusiasm. Corn futures prices are generally weak and should be treated with a bearish mindset [2]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch futures prices have been oscillating weakly at a low level recently and should also be treated with a bearish mindset [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2,249 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 monthly spread is 55 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract is 768,475 lots, up 21,511 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 35,985 lots, down 18,100 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 151,940 lots, down 601 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 405 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2,654 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 monthly spread is 96 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the active contract is 153,533 lots, down 1,311 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,480 lots, up 5,331 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 4,450 lots, up 4,450 lots [2]. Outer - disk Market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 407 cents/bushel, down 4 cents/bushel; the total position is 1,575,283 contracts, up 81,613 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,467 contracts, up 416 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2,398.04 yuan/ton, down 3.33 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 1,926.33 yuan/ton, down 2.37 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 45 US dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2,710 yuan/ton, 2,950 yuan/ton, and 2,880 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2,437.61 yuan/ton, down 2.22 yuan/ton; the price difference between tapioca starch and corn starch is 140 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder is 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 401.85 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively, all unchanged; the predicted sown areas are 35.37 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 44.3 million hectares respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Corn inventories at southern ports are 88.9 million tons, up 62 million tons; at northern ports are 291 million tons, down 13 million tons; the monthly import volume is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The weekly inventory of deep - processing corn is 379.7 million tons, down 20.8 million tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 129.3 million tons, down 1.8 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days are 30.58 days, down 0.29 days; the weekly consumption of deep - processing corn is 113.77 million tons, up 7.53 million tons; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 41.8%, up 3.17 percentage points; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.76%, up 6.3 percentage points [2]. - The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 114 yuan/ton, - 48 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.63%, up 1.71 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.51%, up 0.6 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.15%, up 3.23 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.14%, up 3.23 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's weather report shows that the temperature in the corn - belt region is lower than normal, which is beneficial to the growth of soybeans and corn. StoneX predicts that the total US corn production in 2025 will reach 16.323 billion bushels, with an average yield of 188.1 bushels per acre, while the USDA predicts 15.705 billion bushels and a yield of 181 bushels per acre [2]. - As of the week ending August 3, 2025, the high - quality rate of US corn is 73%, higher than the market expectation of 72%, the same as the previous week, and higher than 67% in the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7] Core View - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of stable and rising spot prices with a fluctuating trend. The corn market saw a weak start in the month and a slight rebound at the end. Both markets are currently in a situation of supply exceeding demand, and future price trends need to focus on policy changes, new - season crop conditions, etc. [3][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3024 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.47% from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2678 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was M09 - 44, down 4 from the previous day. In Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 114, up 6. In Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was M09 - 134, up 6. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was RM09 - 48, down 3 [1] - US Data: In June, the US soybean crush was 197.1 million bushels, down 3.22% from May, up 7.44% from the same period last year, and close to the market expectation of 196.6 million bushels. The US soybean oil inventory at the end of June was 1.893 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.863 billion pounds [2] - Indian Data: In the first 9 months of the 2024/25 season, India's cumulative soybean oil imports were 3.93 million tons, up 93.6% from the same period last year [2] Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2284 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2664 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot basis was C09 + 36, up 13 from the previous day. In Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2800 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton, and the basis was CS09 + 136, up 84 [4] - Argentine Data: As of July 30, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest progress was 88%, and the cumulative harvest was 4.39 million tons. The national average yield was 7.23 tons/hectare, and the annual output was expected to be 4.9 million tons, down 5% year - on - year. The 2025/26 Argentine wheat planting progress was 98.3%, and the planting area was expected to be 6.7 million hectares, up 6.3% year - on - year [4] - US Data: In June, the total consumption of corn for ethanol production and other uses in the US was 498 million bushels, slightly increasing month - on - month. Corn for beverage ethanol production was 3.06 million bushels, down 20% month - on - month and 24% year - on - year. Corn for fuel ethanol production was 448 million bushels, up 1% month - on - month and slightly up year - on - year [5] 2. Market Analysis Soybean Meal - Supply: The domestic arrival volume has been high this month, and the soybean meal inventory has further increased. The supply in the domestic market will remain loose in the short term. With positive policy expectations and a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, the future supply may be even more abundant [3] - Demand: Downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly purchase on - demand according to previous contracts. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [3] - Price: Affected by macro factors, the soybean meal price first rose and then fell this month, and the overall fundamentals have not changed significantly [3] Corn - Supply: In the first half of the month, due to the import corn auction, traders sold their goods, increasing the market supply and driving down the futures and spot prices. In the second half of the month, as the auction transaction rate decreased, the supply decreased, and the corn price stopped falling and stabilized [6] - Demand: Feed enterprises mainly replenished their inventory as needed, and the demand was weak [6] - Price: The corn price was weak in the first half of the month and rebounded slightly at the end. The fundamentals of old - crop corn are unlikely to change significantly, and the new - season corn has not been listed yet [6] 3. Strategy - For both the soybean meal and corn markets, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [4][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season may remain in a supply - loose pattern. Domestic cotton prices are restricted by factors such as new cotton production expectations and weak terminal demand. In the long - term, new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] - The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle. Short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there may be a tail - up market in the fourth quarter, but the price may decline when new sugar is listed in large quantities [6] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The overall fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [9][10] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.66%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,069 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,153 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan/ton. The downstream market is in a wait - and - see state, and the yarn mill operating rate has declined slightly [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market is expected to be loose, and the US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve. Domestically, the cotton inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is listed, but the new cotton has a strong production increase expectation, and the terminal demand is weak [2] Strategy - Take a bearish and oscillatory view of Zhengzhou cotton in the short term [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. India's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under pressure due to increased supply from Brazil and optimistic production estimates in the Northern Hemisphere. Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited by import expectations, with short - term range - bound fluctuations and a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter, but price decline pressure when new sugar is listed [6] Strategy - Expect short - term range - bound fluctuations and take a bearish view in the long term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,225 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp spot market is weak [8] Market Analysis - In the second half of 2025, the pulp supply pressure remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - The pulp market lacks positive drivers, and the price may remain at the bottom in the short term [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Given the volatile macro - sentiment, the strategy is to go long at low levels [2]. - Soybean oil: It is expected to fluctuate at high levels, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade agreement [2]. - Soybean meal: After overnight trading, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. - Soybean: It is expected to rebound and fluctuate [2]. - Corn: It is expected to operate weakly [2]. - Sugar: It is expected to trade in a narrow range [2]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [2]. - Eggs: The bullish expectation for the spot market has failed, leading to a collapse in sentiment [2]. - Live pigs: The pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength will be maintained [2]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,838 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.81%, and night - session closing price was 8,890 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.59%. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,250 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.29%, and night - session closing price was 8,280 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.36% [4]. - **Macro and industry news**: In July, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons. Malaysia's expected palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 decreased by 25.01% compared to the previous month. The Malaysian government plans to allocate 1.4 billion ringgit in five years to support small - scale palm oil replanting [5][7]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental data**: DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session closing price was 3,024 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.67%, and night - session closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.79%. DCE soybean 2509's day - session closing price was 4,117 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22%, and night - session closing price was 4,133 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.17% [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 4, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to short - covering. However, Brazil's soybean harvest and the strong US soybean production outlook are suppressing price increases. As of August 3, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%, and the corn good - to - excellent rate was 73% [12]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of soybean meal is +1 (strong), and that of soybean is 0 (neutral) [12]. Corn - **Fundamental data**: C2509's day - session closing price was 2,284 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.52%, and night - session closing price was 2,258 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.14%. The price of Jinzhou's corn for shipping decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2,340 yuan/ton [13]. - **Macro and industry news**: The northern corn port - collection price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou also decreased by 10 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of corn is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental data**: The raw sugar price was 16.25 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,718 yuan/ton [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Brazil's central - southern sugarcane crushing progress has accelerated. India's monsoon rainfall is higher than the long - period average. China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [16]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of sugar is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental data**: CF2509's day - session closing price was 13,675 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.66%, and night - session closing price was 13,655 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.15%. The price of northern Xinjiang's 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 90 yuan/ton to 14,992 yuan/ton [21]. - **Macro and industry news**: The cotton spot trading has slightly weakened, and the cotton yarn market has not changed much. The ICE cotton futures rose by 0.3% [22]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental data**: The closing price of egg 2509 was 3,360 yuan/500 kg with a decline of 4.03%. The price of Liaoning's spot eggs decreased from 3.00 yuan/jin to 2.90 yuan/jin [27]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of eggs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27]. Live pigs - **Fundamental data**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan was 14,130 yuan/ton, and the futures price of live pigs 2509 was 13,940 yuan/ton [31]. - **Market logic**: The market's expectation of price increases from late July to early August has failed. The supply pressure in August is high, and the 9 - month contract is expected to be weak. The far - end is supported by macro - sentiment, and the spread structure has switched to a reverse spread [33]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of live pigs is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamental data**: The price of Liaoning's 308 common peanuts decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 8,400 yuan/ton. PK510's closing price was 8,084 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12% [35]. - **Spot market focus**: In Henan, the inventory trading is the main activity, and the new peanut growth is affected by drought in some areas. In Jilin, the new peanut growth is good [36]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [37].

宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：巴西大豆贴水持续居高不下，进口成本结构固化，国内豆类期价走势强于美豆，短期豆粕市场 的驱动依然来自远期的供应收紧预期和成本推动。豆粕期价继续保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates mixed performance in the Chicago futures market for corn, wheat, and soybeans, with corn prices declining, wheat prices stable, and soybean prices increasing slightly [1] - On August 4, the most active December corn contract closed at $4.07 per bushel, down 3.75 cents or 0.91% from the previous trading day, while the September wheat contract remained unchanged at $5.17 per bushel, and the November soybean contract rose by 5.25 cents or 0.53% to $9.95 per bushel [1] - China is seeking to increase imports of South American soybeans for October and November, and the market anticipates that U.S. soybean exports for the 2025-2026 season will not exceed 1.5 billion bushels [1] Group 2 - The cumulative export inspection volumes for the current crop year are reported as 2.423 billion bushels for corn, 1.757 billion bushels for soybeans, and 143 million bushels for wheat [2] - U.S. rice prices have fallen to their lowest level since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, potentially breaking a long-standing upward trend since 2003, with global demand slowing down, putting pressure on rice valuations [2] - Weather forecasts indicate dry conditions in the Midwest this week, with increased chances of rain over the weekend, which is favorable for corn and soybean growth [2]