智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，市场当前仍处于8月底以来的震荡期，大幅上行的制约来自成交较快上涨、涨幅较大之后资金获利了结的动机，后 续表现可能需要新的催化因素，资金面多个重要变化共振使得前期市场资金热度较高，市场难以明显回调，下行风险较小。中期维度，全球货币秩序加速 重构，美元资产的安全性下降，人民币资产将继续获得重估，这意味着市场上涨根基并未动摇。 图表1：6月23日以来A股的上涨行情中，结构分化特征显著，仅有少数行业跑赢大盘指数 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 一、 产能周期视角 产能周期视角寻找拐点型行业和弹性行业仍有意义。持续跟踪各行业的产能周期变化，并寻找实现产能出清和需求改善的弹性机会，在过去市场低迷时期 取得良好的超额收益。但是自去年9月市场转为上涨以来，投资者风险偏好提升并重点配置高景气行业，该策略的优势有所下降。但该策略对于寻找基本 面预期拐点行业有较好的效果，例如2023年的通信设备、商用车和航海装备，2024年一季报的消费电子和元件，2024年三季报的锂电池，都是从产能周期 视角识别的重点行业。在当下高度共识的行业之外，拐点型行业或者具备业绩改善弹性的行业，具备较好的配置价值。 ...

Market Review - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations this week, with major indices showing mixed performance. The semiconductor industry chain strengthened significantly, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 6.47%, driven by increased capital expenditure in the AI sector and breakthroughs in domestic lithography technology. Conversely, the consumer sector weakened, with indices in social services, retail, light industry, and textiles showing the largest declines. Market turnover decreased marginally, with net inflows of financing funds maintained, and stock ETFs saw a net subscription of 231 billion yuan this week. In the commodity market, internationally priced commodities strengthened, while domestically priced black commodities declined. The dollar index rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returning to around 4.2%, and the RMB depreciated against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to experience temporary fluctuations, with a "slow bull" market continuing. After a trend-driven rise in July and August, funding divergence has increased since September. With the upcoming long holiday, external funds entering the market may slow down, leading to potential short-term adjustments in both markets. However, the current bull market is still in play, supported by ample micro liquidity, policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market, and long-term capital inflows. Despite weak economic data, the effects of "anti-involution" policies are beginning to show, leading to marginal improvements in long-term profit expectations for A-shares. Key areas of focus include: - The technology sector remains the main focus, with both "prosperity investment" and "thematic investment" expected to coexist in October. Internal rotation within growth sectors is anticipated to accelerate, particularly in AI downstream applications, solid-state batteries, energy storage, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Attention should also be given to non-tech sectors showing positive trends, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and engineering machinery [2][3]. International Perspective - On the international front, the Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cuts have been implemented, but there is increasing divergence regarding future rate cut paths. In September, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, with projections indicating a potential further reduction of 50 basis points within the year. However, there is significant disagreement among Fed officials regarding future cuts, with 9 out of 19 officials expecting two more cuts in 2025, while others foresee no further reductions. Current U.S. economic data remains resilient, and Fed Chair Powell's cautious signals regarding rate cuts suggest a potentially complicated path ahead [3]. Supply-Side Policies - The impact of supply-side "anti-involution" policies is gradually becoming evident, with industrial profits rebounding in August. Year-on-year growth in industrial profits for August was 20.4%, improving from a -1.7% decline in July to a cumulative growth of 0.9%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of -2.9% year-on-year, marking the first contraction since March. This improvement is attributed to a low base effect and the gradual impact of supply-side policies, which have led to price increases in upstream commodities. The central bank has emphasized the challenges of insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, with recent policies aimed at boosting prices being implemented [3]. Structural Trends - In terms of structure, the technology sector is experiencing numerous catalysts, with high growth expectations for TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors. The new wave of technological advancements driven by AI is accelerating across various fields. Key factors include the increasing clarity of domestic and international AI industry trends, rapid growth in the performance of leading companies, and a focus on hard technology and new production capabilities in upcoming policy meetings. Market consensus on profit expectations indicates high growth for growth sectors in 2025, including military electronics, software development, IT services, optical electronics, gaming, new energy, semiconductors, and communication equipment [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The liquidity situation in the A-share market remains ample. In August, non-bank deposits increased by 550 billion yuan year-on-year, and the M1-M2 negative differential continues to narrow, reflecting a positive impact on residents' risk appetite. Unlike the previous "structural bull" market from 2019 to 2021, where residents favored active funds, this bull market sees a preference for passive investment products. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the net asset value of stock ETFs has rapidly expanded, with index funds consistently outpacing active equity funds for three consecutive quarters, further promoting the trend towards indexation in the industry. The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with funding rates trending downward and bank wealth management products yielding historically low returns, suggesting that micro liquidity in the A-share market is likely to remain ample in the fourth quarter [3].

Group 1: Industry Leaders Achieving New Highs - Multiple industry leaders have seen their stock prices reach new highs, with Shenghong Technology (300476) opening up 3.34% and hitting a peak of 293.64 CNY per share, marking a maximum increase of over 600% from its year-low [1] - Shenghong Technology reported a net profit of 2.143 billion CNY for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 366.89%, capitalizing on AI computing power technology and data center upgrades [1] - Other industry leaders such as Ruijie Networks, Rockchip, Dongyangguang, Sanmei Co., Juhua Co., and BeiGene-U also reached historical highs following their semi-annual report disclosures [1] Group 2: Performance of Laser Equipment Leader - Laser equipment leader Huagong Technology saw its stock hit the daily limit and rise over 6% to reach a new historical high, with a net profit of 911 million CNY for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.87% [2] - The company benefited from the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and export growth, leading to an increase in market share and sales of PTC heating components and sensors [2] Group 3: Underperforming Yet Promising Stocks - A selection of high-performing stocks with low P/E ratios has been identified, with 13 stocks meeting criteria such as underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and having a rolling P/E ratio below 30 [3] - China XD Electric, which saw a 12.94% decline this year, reported a net profit of 598 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 30.08% [3] - Four stocks have rolling P/E ratios below 20, including Liugong, Zoomlion, Deyang Co., and Longjing Environmental Protection, with Liugong having the lowest at 14.22 [3] Group 4: Market Insights and Future Potential - The excavator market showed better-than-expected domestic sales in July, with room for growth as sales only reached 35% of the 2021 levels [4] - Among the 13 identified stocks, 10 have an upside potential exceeding 20%, with Berteli leading at 52.28% [4] - Berteli is expected to improve its profitability with new production capacities coming online in 2025 [4] Group 5: Financing Trends - Data shows that eight stocks have seen net financing purchases exceeding 100 million CNY since August, with Luxshare Precision leading at 651 million CNY [5]

Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund, China Enterprise Dividend Mixed A (019015), reported a profit of 1.6032 million yuan for Q2 2025, with a net value growth rate of 4.59% during the period, and a total fund size of 33.8038 million yuan as of the end of Q2 2025 [3][16]. Fund Performance - As of July 18, the unit net value was 1.128 yuan, with a one-year cumulative net value growth rate of 9.58%, ranking 446 out of 584 comparable funds [3][4]. - The fund's performance over the last three months showed a growth rate of 8.11%, ranking 436 out of 615, and over the last six months, it had a growth rate of 9.65%, ranking 338 out of 615 [4]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager indicated that with the implementation of U.S. President Trump's tariff policies, global trade tensions are rising. They believe that state-owned enterprise stocks with self-controllable and domestic demand attributes will have better defensive characteristics [3]. - The report suggests that the concept of "dividend" investment, particularly high-dividend stocks, is expected to expand to broadly defined dividend stocks with potential high dividend capabilities. These companies typically have high operational barriers, stable ROE, and abundant operating cash flow, indicating a potential for sustained dividends while still being undervalued historically [3]. Fund Holdings - As of June 27, the fund's top ten holdings included Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shandong Publishing Group, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., New Media Group, Bohai Ferry, Phoenix Media, Nanjing Steel Group, Nanjing High Accurate Drive Equipment Manufacturing Group, China Shenhua Energy Company, and China Construction Bank [19]. Risk Metrics - The fund has a Sharpe ratio of 0.6765 since inception, indicating a reasonable risk-adjusted return [9]. - The maximum drawdown since inception is 14.12%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q3 2024 at 11.88% [12]. Fund Positioning - The average stock position since inception has been 91.66%, compared to the peer average of 83.17%. The fund reached a peak stock position of 93.42% at the end of Q1 2024 and a low of 89.12% at the end of 2024 [15].

Core Viewpoint - The export chain of listed companies in Q1 2025 is expected to perform well, driven by factors such as foreign trade enterprises "grabbing exports," accelerated expansion of mid-to-high-end products in overseas markets, and the ongoing efforts of the "Belt and Road" initiative. The net profit growth rate of the export chain in Q1 2025 is projected to be 15.33%, a significant increase of 14.54 percentage points compared to 2024A [1]. Group 1: Export Chain Performance - The net profit growth rate of the export chain in Q1 2025 is 15.33%, up from 0.80% in 2024A, outperforming the overall non-financial A-share market, which saw a decline of 12.94% [1]. - The export chain's performance indicates strong support from external demand over the past six months [1]. Group 2: Industry Overseas Revenue Proportion - As of the end of 2024, the highest overseas revenue proportion is in the electronics industry at 41.7%, followed by home appliances at 38.5% [2]. - Industries with over 20% overseas revenue proportions include automotive (26.5%), machinery manufacturing (23.8%), and light industry manufacturing (22.5%) [2]. - The light industry manufacturing sector saw a significant increase in overseas revenue proportion, rising by 4.76 percentage points compared to 2023 [2]. Group 3: Trends in Overseas Revenue - Since 2018, sectors such as automotive, personal care, and machinery have rapidly increased their overseas revenue proportions, reflecting a trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green exports [2]. - The electronics and communications sectors have experienced a noticeable decline in overseas revenue proportions due to geopolitical issues [2]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - In 2024, industries such as non-ferrous metals and mid-to-high-end manufacturing have made significant progress in overseas business, with notable increases in overseas revenue proportions [4]. - The sectors with the most substantial marginal improvements in overseas revenue proportions include other electronics (+15.06 percentage points) and home goods (+9.23 percentage points) [4]. Group 5: Exposure to International Markets - The report categorizes industries based on their exposure to various international markets, highlighting those with high exposure to the U.S. and those with declining exposure [6]. - Industries currently with high exposure to the U.S. include home appliances, medical devices, and computer equipment, while sectors like communications and media have seen a decrease in U.S. exposure [6].