投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 12 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿震荡走高 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价延续震荡，录得 0.42%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应重回高位，需求季节性好转，供需双增局面下基本面并未好 转，钢价仍易承压，相对利好则是原料强势带来成本支撑，预计螺纹延 续震荡企稳态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by the Iran situation, and the volatility of various commodities is expected to increase [6][9]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions, such as some commodities are expected to be bullish, some are expected to be bearish, and some are expected to be volatile [14][16][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 140 billion yuan. The US CPI data was released. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond market is expected to face certain pressure, so it is necessary to be cautious [5][6]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities [8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold rose and silver fell. In February 2026, global physical gold ETFs continued to flow in. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The rebar price may rebound, but the space may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [13][14]. 3.5 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may have a positive impact on prices, but the effect may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [16]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, and coke demand is under pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions [18]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The cost of ferroalloys is at a low level with limited downward space, and the supply is in a state of over - supply. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profit on long positions [20]. 3.8 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in net long positions in the US crude oil futures market shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a significant impact on global energy supply, and the crude oil price still has support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the crude oil main contract [21][22]. 3.9 Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou reported higher prices, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted. The downstream factories of polyolefins resumed production, and the demand for replenishment increased. The cost support was enhanced, and the market sentiment improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [24][25]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The core driving force is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, which drives up the cost of butadiene. There are maintenance plans for some devices in March. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [27][28]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict drives up the cost of synthetic rubber, increasing the expected substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main producing areas are in the low - production season, and the supply is tight. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29][30]. 3.12 PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The core driving force is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts and the seasonal off - season when domestic spring demand has not fully started. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [31][33]. 3.13 Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and international supply - demand mismatches. The global urea production capacity has a hard gap, and China's domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [34][35]. 3.14 PX - The previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are compressed, and the downstream polyester and textile terminals are resuming work. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations in the short term, but the price may be volatile, and caution is needed [36][37]. 3.15 PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand expectation in March may improve. It is expected to run strongly with PX and oil prices, but the price may be volatile, and caution is needed [38]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The short - term Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost may change sharply. The polyester industry chain is in a high - mood state. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, but the high inventory may limit the increase [39][40]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract rose. The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained, and the loom load is slightly rising. It is still trading on the cost - side logic, and the market may be volatile, so caution is needed [41]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose. The bottle chips supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate is increasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations following the cost side, and caution is needed [42][44]. 3.19 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash main 2605 contract rose. The supply of soda ash is abundant, the demand is general, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to risk control [45][46]. 3.20 Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main 2605 contract rose. The glass industry is in the stage of active capacity reduction, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to position control [49][50]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda main 2605 contract rose. The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, and there are maintenance plans for some factories in March. The price has a certain support due to valuation repair and downstream profit transmission, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the price and sales of liquid chlorine, export orders, and downstream price acceptance [51][52]. 3.22 Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp main 2605 contract fell. The domestic pulp production may decrease, the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of softwood pulp fluctuates with the futures, and the cost of hardwood pulp has support, but the downstream demand has not followed up. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil and commodities, downstream paper mill procurement rhythm, and capital trends [53][54]. 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing. The consumption is in the off - season but not weak, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [55]. 3.24 Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the domestic electrolytic copper production is restricted by raw materials and maintenance. The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate within a range [56][57]. 3.25 Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose. The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the geopolitical conflict affects the supply of bauxite. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The aluminum price is expected to run strongly [59][60]. 3.26 Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The production of refined zinc is increasing moderately, the import is in a net inflow, the downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately, and the zinc price may be under pressure and fluctuate [61][62]. 3.27 Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose. The production of primary lead is gradually recovering, the production of secondary lead is slow to recover, and the battery enterprises are basically fully resumed. The lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [63][64]. 3.28 Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell. The US - Iran conflict and the military conflict in Congo affect the supply of tin. The demand in the emerging fields supports the price, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [65][66]. 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, and the nickel production cost is expected to rise. The downstream consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in a state of over - supply. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The USDA report slightly adjusted the global soybean production and inventory, and the soybean supply - demand balance is expected to improve. The domestic soybean import is slowing down, and the oil mill's profit is rising. If the Middle East conflict continues to rise, investors can consider taking profit on long positions [68][69]. 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The Malaysian palm oil inventory decreased in February, and the export volume increased in March. The domestic palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose. China has adjusted the import tariff policy for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are in a state of de - stocking. It is recommended to wait and see [72][74]. 3.33 Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton increased in position and rose, but the upward space is limited. The USDA forum expects a global cotton production reduction in the new year, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [75][77]. 3.34 Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng sugar ran strongly with fluctuations. India's sugar production is expected to decrease, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [78][79]. 3.35 Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The current spot market is stable, and the inventory is low and of poor quality. The apple price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term [81][82]. 3.36 Pigs - The previous trading day, the main pig contract fell. The national pig price is in a state of grinding the bottom, the supply is abundant, and the consumption is weak. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume, and short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [83][84]. 3.37 Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a high level, and the feed cost may increase. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions [85]. 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, the new - season corn cost may be revised down, and the wheat substitution effect may be strengthened. The corn price may face upward pressure in the short term, and put - option opportunities can be considered. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86][87]. 3.39 Logs - The previous trading day, the main log 2605 contract closed flat. The shipping cost of imported coniferous logs increased, and the downstream demand improved. The sentiment in the energy - chemical market eased, and the shipping cost support for the log market may weaken. Attention should be paid to the foreign - market quotation, shipping dynamics, and downstream terminal consumption [88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by factors such as the Iran situation and geopolitical conflicts, with significant volatility. Different industries have different trends and investment opportunities, and investors need to pay attention to risk control [5][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, the performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 395 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 52 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will still be some pressure in the future, so it is necessary to be cautious [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The Shanghai Stock Exchange will increase the supply of institutional inclusiveness for technology - based enterprises. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is at a low level, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the great uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and wait for opportunities [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the great uncertainty of the Iran situation, it is expected that the market volatility will increase significantly, so it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Steel and Iron - Related Products - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the supply pressure is reduced. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The demand for iron ore is suppressed by steel mill production restrictions, and the supply is in a weak pattern. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. In the short term, the Middle - East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand is under pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The cost of ferroalloys is at a low level and the downward space is limited. The production has been at a low level since 2026, and the overall surplus pressure continues. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions after a rapid short - term price rebound [19]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in CFTC net long positions shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The limited opening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's consideration of laying mines support the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for the main crude oil contract [20][21]. - **Polyolefins**: On the previous trading day, the prices of polyolefins in the market fell. The downstream factories of polyolefins are resuming production, and the rigid demand for replenishment is increasing, which provides support for the price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities [23][24]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber futures fell. The cost of synthetic rubber is supported by the increase in crude oil prices and the expected maintenance of some devices in March. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the cost of synthetic rubber, and the expected substitution demand for natural rubber increases. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The market is affected by the overseas geopolitical conflict and the domestic seasonal off - season. It is expected that the disk will be in a strong - side shock [31]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and international supply - demand mismatches. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [33]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, and the PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the changes in oil prices and the situation [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand drive is general. The cost - side support is slightly weakened. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the demand resumption and inventory digestion [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The short - term geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost - side changes may intensify. The high inventory may suppress the short - term trend. It is recommended to be cautious and pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the spring inspection rhythm [39]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, and the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level and the cost is relatively strong, which may provide bottom support. It is recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, device dynamics and downstream factory resumption [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The bottle - chip supply is expected to shrink, and the export growth rate is increasing. The main logic is still on the cost side. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [42]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures fell. The supply of soda ash is loose, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is general. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk is likely to return to the fundamental logic. It is recommended to control risks [44][45]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The glass industry is in the stage of active capacity reduction, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk is in a high - position multi - empty game. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to the Middle - East situation [47][48]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures fell. The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, the inventory is increasing, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. The market may return to the fundamental logic, and the disk fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to control positions and pay attention to the price of liquid chlorine and export transactions [51]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The pulp inventory is not showing a de - stocking trend, the supply changes little, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and commodities, the procurement rhythm of downstream paper mills and capital trends [53]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, the supply is in a tight balance, and the demand is improving. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [56]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the supply elasticity of electrolytic copper is limited. The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the copper price is expected to be in a range - bound shock [57]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The alumina market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and the cost support is strengthened. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The aluminum price is expected to run strongly [58]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose slightly. The production of refined zinc is increasing moderately, the import is in a net inflow, the downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately, and the zinc price may be under pressure and in a shock [60]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply - demand mismatch is conducive to the de - stocking of primary lead, and the lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [61]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of refined tin is in a tight pattern, the demand is supported by emerging fields, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support below, but the overseas situation is uncertain, and the price volatility may increase [63]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell. The global nickel - mine supply is expected to be tight, the production cost is expected to rise, but the downstream consumption is not optimistic, and the refined nickel is in an oversupply pattern [64]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean - meal and soybean - oil futures fell. The export demand of soybeans is expected to improve, and the supply of soybeans is relatively loose. If the Middle - East conflict continues to rise, it is recommended to consider taking profits on long positions [66]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm - oil futures fell. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the inventory decreased. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see [68]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: On the previous trading day, rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil futures fell. The import policy of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed products has changed, and the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a relatively high or low level. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA expects a reduction in global cotton production in the new year, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term. The cotton price is expected to run strongly in the long - term [73]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. India's sugar production is expected to decrease, which is favorable for the market. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices on commodities [77]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The current inventory is low and the quality is poor, and the apple price is expected to run strongly in the long - term [80]. - **Pig**: On the previous trading day, pig futures fell. The national pig supply is relatively abundant, the consumption is weak, and the price is in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [82]. - **Egg**: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the feed - cost increase is expected. It is recommended to take partial profits on long - term short positions [84]. - **Corn and Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and the supply is expected to be released after the festival. The demand for corn starch has recovered slightly, and it is expected to follow the corn market [85]. - **Log**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The shipping cost support is expected to weaken, and the disk has cooled down. It is recommended to pay attention to the external - market quotation, shipping dynamics and downstream consumption [88].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 10 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.42%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端迎来季节性回升，产业矛盾并未缓解，基本面延续相对 弱势，钢价继续承压，相对利好的是成本支撑，预计钢价延续震荡企 稳态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.18%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷产量下降，但库存居高不下，供应压力未退，而需求韧性趋弱 产业矛盾持续累积，价格继续承压，相 ...

2026年03月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：运输成本抬升，矿价小幅反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：多空双方博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空双方博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：一轮提降落地，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：能源属性持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋宽，煤价回调 | 9 | | 原木：需求季节性回升，价差正套运行 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 9 日 （2）2026 年政府工作报告重在稳定预期，着力调结构、防风险、促改革。一方面，GDP 增速从"5%左 右"下调至"4.5%-5.0%"，经济增长目标更加务实；另一方面，提高政策性金融工具规模。 （3）247 家钢铁企业日均铁水产量为 227.59 万吨，环比下降 5.69 万吨。（我的钢铁） 铁矿石：运输成本抬升，矿价小幅反弹 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 铁矿石：主力期价震荡走高，录得 1.38%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，市场情绪回暖，加之运费上行支撑，矿价震荡走高，但矿石需求表 现偏弱，而供应有所回升，矿市基本面延续弱势，上行驱动不强，后续 走势谨慎乐观，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 3 月 6 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡走高 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡回升，录得 0.26%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 市场情绪回暖，钢价震荡回升，但螺纹钢供需两端均在回升，产业矛盾 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, with different trend outlooks for each commodity [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Price Trend**: Iron ore prices are volatile as iron - water production declines [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 is 759.0 yuan/ton, up 7.0 yuan or 0.93%. The持仓 decreased by 26,804 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores showed some changes, and basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [4]. - **News**: The GDP growth target in the 2026 government work report is adjusted to 4.5% - 5.0%, and the scale of policy - based financial instruments is increased. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 5.69 tons. Shanghai optimized real - estate policies [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price Trend**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a state of repeated fluctuations [2]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2605, the closing price is 3,075 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.10%. For hot - rolled coil HC2605, the closing price is 3,209 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan or - 0.19%. There are corresponding changes in trading volume, positions, spot prices, basis, and spreads [8]. - **News**: On March 5, the output of rebar increased by 8.21 tons, hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.5 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 103.89 tons. The Party Politburo discussed the "15th Five - Year Plan" and government work report. Shanghai optimized real - estate policies. In mid - February 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased significantly [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Trend**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a wide - range volatile state [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2605 and 2607 are 5828 and 5912 respectively, with different price changes compared to the previous day. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2605 and 2607 are 6092 and 6114 respectively. Spot prices, basis, and spreads also have corresponding changes [12]. - **News**: There are price changes in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions. Many manganese ore suppliers increased their April quotes. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. The electricity price for ferrosilicon production in some areas changed. The sea freight of manganese ore increased. In January 2026, South Africa's manganese ore exports increased [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Price Trend**: Coke has started the first round of price cuts and is in a wide - range volatile state. Coking coal is also in a wide - range volatile state [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of JM2605 for coking coal is 1105.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan or 0.8%. The closing price of J2605 for coke is 1676.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan or 0.3%. Spot prices, basis, and spreads have corresponding changes [16]. - **News**: On March 5, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed certain values. The coking coal online auction had a 30% non - sale rate, with an average premium of 15.2 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [19]. Thermal Coal - **Price Trend**: The market sentiment is weak, and the short - term price fluctuates in a narrow range [2]. - **Fundamentals**: There are price changes in different regions and different calorific values of thermal coal, including domestic and overseas prices, as well as long - term agreement prices [20]. - **News**: On March 5, the thermal coal market sentiment was weak. The downstream daily consumption recovered slowly, and the port inventory increased. Indonesia set the 2026 domestic market obligation coal supply target [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity based on the northern port thermal coal spot price is - 1, indicating a bearish view [21]. Logs - **Price Trend**: Due to low inventory, the price is rising in a volatile manner [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts have corresponding changes. Spot prices in different regions and for different types of logs also have certain trends [22]. - **News**: The 2026 government work report adjusted the GDP growth target and increased the scale of policy - based financial instruments. Shanghai optimized real - estate policies [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend outlooks and fundamental analysis for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices and trends of many commodities. For example, the conflict in the Middle East has led to concerns about inflation, affecting the prices of gold, oil, and other commodities. Additionally, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and inventory levels also play important roles in determining the price trends of different commodities [5][8][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the price is affected by factors such as inflation concerns and changes in the US dollar index. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: In a volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 1 [2]. - **Platinum**: Continues to be weak, with a trend strength of 0 [25]. - **Palladium**: High - frequency data is sluggish, and it is in a low - level volatile state, with a trend strength of - 1 [25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The narrowing of the spot discount restricts the price decline. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - **Zinc**: In a range - bound pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [11]. - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventory restricts the price decline, with a trend strength of 0 [15]. - **Tin**: In a volatile adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: A slight correction, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Alumina**: In a sideways volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Nickel**: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, and beware of speculative attributes in March, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The contradiction at the ore end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Although not specifically mentioned in detail, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to concerns about supply, pushing up oil prices [5][8]. - **Fuel Oil**: Maintains a retracement trend and short - term high - volatility, with a trend strength of - 1 [133]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In a weak adjustment, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [133]. - **Natural Gas**: Not specifically analyzed in detail, but geopolitical factors may affect its supply and price [91]. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: In a wide - range volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [58]. - **Coke**: A first - round price cut has begun, and it is in a wide - range volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [57]. - **Steam Coal**: Market sentiment is weakening, and the short - term price fluctuates within a narrow range, with a trend strength of - 1 [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The spill - over of sentiment finally arrives, showing a short - term strong performance, with a trend strength of 1 [158]. - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it may break through upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [158]. - **Soybean Meal**: Rebounds and fluctuates, and pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, with a trend strength of 0 [165]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong, and the futures price fluctuates in adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [165]. - **Corn**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 0 [168]. - **Sugar**: In a range - bound arrangement, with a trend strength of 0 [172]. - **Cotton**: Waiting for new drivers, with a trend strength of 1 [176]. - **Eggs**: Maintains a volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [180]. - **Hogs**: The inventory pressure is difficult to solve, and the weakness continues, with a trend strength of - 1 [183]. - **Peanuts**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [188]. Chemical Products - **P - Xylene (PX)**: In a high - level volatile market, it is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA. The trend strength is 1 [68]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: In a high - level volatile market, with a trend strength of 1 [68]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In a high - level volatile market, with a trend strength of 1 [68]. - **Rubber**: Fluctuates weakly, with a trend strength of - 1 [78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves up, with a trend strength of 1 [81]. - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)**: The expectation of cracking supply contraction continues, and pay short - term high attention to geopolitical factors, with a trend strength of 2 [85]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The C3 raw material remains strong, and the reduction of PDH devices continues, with a trend strength of 2 [85]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by strong export expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [90]. - **Paper Pulp**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [95]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0 [102]. - **Methanol**: In a high - level volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [105]. - **Urea**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [111]. - **Styrene**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little, with a trend strength of 0 [117]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, with a trend strength of 0 [122]. - **Propylene**: The cost end is affected by geopolitical factors, and the fundamentals remain tight, with a trend strength of 1 [122]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: In a range - bound pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [130]. Shipping Index - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to geopolitical sentiment disturbances, with a trend strength of 0 [135]. Fibers - **Short - Fiber**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is short - term strong, with a trend strength of 1 [148]. - **Bottle - Grade Chip**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is short - term strong, with a trend strength of 1 [148]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend strength of 0 [150]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [155].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum in China needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The overall situation of the global economic and financial market is stable, but there are still certain pressures in the market, and caution should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and there is room for repair. The policy environment is favorable, and the market sentiment is rising. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and long positions can continue to be held [8]. - The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but the current market lacks significant fundamental drivers, and it is expected that the market volatility will significantly increase. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for the time being [11]. - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils lack bullish drivers, but the valuation is also at a low level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage their positions [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and it is recommended that investors pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low positions and manage their positions [15]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke is complex, and it is recommended that investors pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions and manage their positions [17]. - The overall surplus pressure of ferroalloys continues, and it is advisable to consider the opportunity of closing long positions when the price rebounds rapidly in the short term [19]. - The price of crude oil is supported by multiple factors, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the main contract [21]. - The price of polyolefins is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long [24]. - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and needs to pay attention to the medium - term situation [25]. - The price of natural rubber is expected to be strong in the short term and needs to pay attention to the inventory situation from March to April [27]. - The PVC market is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory trend [30]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term, and the shipping safety of the Strait of Hormuz is the main risk point [33]. - The price of PX is expected to rise, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [36]. - The price of PTA is expected to rise with the cost, and it is advisable to operate in the low - range and pay attention to risks [38]. - The price of ethylene glycol is expected to rise, but the high inventory may suppress the short - term increase [39]. - The price of short - fiber is supported by the cost, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the resumption of work of downstream factories [41]. - The price of bottle chips is expected to be strong with the cost, and attention should be paid to the restart of maintenance devices and cost changes [42]. - The fundamentals of soda ash are loose, and caution should be exercised [43]. - The glass market is mainly loose, and there is a possibility of a slight upward shock, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [45]. - The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the actual delivery volume and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [46]. - The pulp market has no obvious change in supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work of downstream paper mills and the demand for stocking during the March 8th promotion [48]. - The price of lithium carbonate has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [50]. - The copper price is under pressure and fluctuates, and the market uncertainty is high [52]. - The aluminum price is strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [55]. - The zinc price fluctuates, and the fundamental driving force is insufficient [57]. - The lead price is weakly volatile and lacks upward momentum [59]. - The tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to the risk of price fluctuation [61]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia and macro - event disturbances [62]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunity in the low - cost support range for soybean meal, and it is advisable to wait and see after the price of soybean oil leaves the low - cost range [64]. - For palm oil, long positions can be considered to be reduced or liquidated [67]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, a bullish idea can be considered for rapeseed oil [68]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [71]. - For sugar, it is advisable to wait and see [76]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [79]. - For live pigs, it is advisable to wait for the opportunity to short at a high price [81]. - For eggs, it is advisable to hold short positions in the far - month contract [83]. - The corn and corn starch market is affected by multiple factors, and corn starch may follow the corn market [87]. - The price of logs has cost support, but the current price is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the external quotation, shipping dynamics and downstream consumption [90]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell 2.86% to 153060 yuan/ton. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance sheet is being reshaped, and the supply of ore is in a tight balance. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is gradually decreasing, and there is short - term support for the price, but the short - term volatility may increase [50]. 3.2 Copper - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 101700 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.45%. The overseas macro - environment is complex, and the supply pressure at the mine end is prominent. The demand shows seasonal recovery and structural differentiation. The inventory pressure is strong, and the copper price is under pressure and fluctuates [51][52]. 3.3 Aluminum - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 25145 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.65%. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and the aluminum price is strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of callback [54][55]. 3.4 Zinc - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 24460 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.67%. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the demand recovery is slow. The fundamentals lack driving force, and the zinc price fluctuates [57]. 3.5 Lead - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16790 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.68%. The supply recovery is slow, the consumption is weak, and the lead price is weakly volatile [59]. 3.6 Tin - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose 2.84% to 406590 yuan/ton. The supply tightness has eased, the demand is complex, and the tin price has support below, but attention should be paid to price fluctuations [61]. 3.7 Nickel - The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose 1.29% to 138460 yuan/ton. The nickel ore shortage expectation is fermenting, but the consumption is not optimistic, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply pattern [62]. 3.8 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal fell 0.49% to 2829 yuan/ton, and the main contract of soybean oil rose 0.46% to 8370 yuan/ton. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly [63][64]. 3.9 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by factors such as the decline of Chicago soybean oil futures and profit - taking. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to decline, and the domestic palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to reduce or liquidate long positions [65][67]. 3.10 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures rose, and the domestic market is affected by policies such as tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil shows different trends. A bullish idea can be considered for rapeseed oil [68]. 3.11 Cotton - The domestic cotton market fluctuates, and the new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The domestic supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [69][71]. 3.12 Sugar - The domestic and foreign sugar markets are affected by factors such as production and import. The overseas production reduction is beneficial to the market, while the domestic supply is sufficient. It is advisable to wait and see [73][76]. 3.13 Apple - The apple futures rose to a new high, the inventory this year is low and the quality is poor. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [77][79]. 3.14 Live Pigs - The main contract of live pigs fell 0.31% to 11130 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is still large, and it is advisable to wait for the opportunity to short at a high price [81]. 3.15 Eggs - The main contract of eggs rose 0.09% to 3209 yuan/500kg. The supply in March is expected to remain at a high level, and it is advisable to hold short positions in the far - month contract [82][83]. 3.16 Corn & Starch - The main contract of corn rose 0.21% to 2379 yuan/ton, and the main contract of corn starch rose 0.37% to 2692 yuan/ton. The market is affected by factors such as inventory, supply and demand, and price competition. Corn starch may follow the corn market [84][87]. 3.17 Logs - The main contract of logs closed at 802.0 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.25%. The arrival volume of logs decreased, the price has a rising trend, and attention should be paid to external quotations, shipping dynamics and downstream consumption [88][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Awaiting steel mill复产, the ore price rebounds from a low level [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke: The first round of price cuts has started, with wide - range fluctuations; coking coal: Wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Steam coal: Lack of upward support, short - term price with narrow - range fluctuations [2][20]. - Logs: A game between expectations and reality, with small - scale fluctuations [2][23]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of I2605 was 752.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton (- 0.20%); the open interest decreased by 7,288 hands. Among spot prices, the price of most varieties declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on the afternoon of March 4; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26 [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,071 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,212 yuan/ton, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the prices in some regions decreased slightly [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee discussed the draft outline of the 14th Five - Year Plan and the government work report on February 27; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26; steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data showed changes in late February [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of silicon - iron contracts increased, and the trading volume and open interest were at certain levels. Spot prices of some varieties increased. There were changes in various price spreads [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The prices of silicon - iron and silicomanganese in some regions increased; the manganese ore quotes for April 2026 from multiple mines increased; the silicon - iron electricity prices in some regions changed; the manganese ore freight rates increased; South Africa's manganese ore export volume in January 2026 increased [12][13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 increased, and the open interest decreased. Most spot prices remained stable, with a small decline in some varieties. There were changes in various price spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index decreased on March 4; the coking coal online auction on March 4 had a 28% non - successful bid rate, with prices rising and falling [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [18]. Steam Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices of steam coal in different regions and at different calorific values showed different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year. The long - term agreement prices in February decreased [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 4, the sentiment in the northern port market was average, with low trading volume. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. Indonesia set its 2026 domestic coal supply target and preliminary production target [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity based on the northern port steam coal spot price is 0 [22]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts showed different changes. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with small increases in some [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference opened on March 4; Shanghai optimized real - estate policies on February 26 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [26].