Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, polyolefins mainly declined. Sinopec and PetroChina lowered the prices of linear LL and drawn PP. Fundamentally, the market situation changed, and oil prices weakened. The macro - impact on the chemical industry in the market is fluctuating. In the future, attention should be paid to the actual operation of production facilities and the support of demand at lower levels [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For linear LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 8273, 8715, and 8568 respectively, with price drops of - 170, - 203, and - 168 and percentage drops of - 2.01%, - 2.28%, and - 1.92% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 8206, 8975, and 8592 respectively, with price drops of - 188, - 139, and - 188 and percentage drops of - 2.24%, - 1.53%, and - 2.14% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL for January, May, and September contracts were 13742, 1057929, and 325709 respectively, and the open interests were 11517, 319820, and 160509 respectively, with open - interest increases of 1749, 4893, and 3554 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 6404, 1186296, and 345779 respectively, and the open interests were 19023, 339198, and 182089 respectively, with open - interest changes of 434, - 360, and 12164 respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: For linear LL, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 442, 147, and 295 respectively, compared with previous values of - 475, 182, and 293. For PP, the current price spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 769, 383, and 386 respectively, compared with previous values of - 720, 334, and 386 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 3092 yuan/ton, 8985 yuan/ton, 980 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 8740 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous values of 3136 yuan/ton, 9030 yuan/ton, 1080 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 9160 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 8350 - 9400 yuan/ton, 8300 - 9200 yuan/ton, and 8650 - 9550 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous ranges of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 8950 - 9800 yuan/ton, and 8800 - 9800 yuan/ton. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 8650 - 8800 yuan/ton, 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 8700 - 9200 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous ranges of 9150 - 9750 yuan/ton, 9000 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 9200 - 9600 yuan/ton [2] News - On Wednesday (March 25), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $90.32 per barrel, down $2.03 or 2.20% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $86.46 - $91.73. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $102.22 per barrel, down $2.27 or 2.17% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $97.15 - $103.37 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on March 26, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black commodities, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis for power coal on March 25, 2026, was - 45.4 yuan/ton, showing an increase compared to previous days. The spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month were all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy commodities are provided from March 19 to March 25, 2026. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on March 25 was 345.10 yuan/ton [9] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on March 25 was - 130 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month for rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of rubber was - 775 yuan/ton [12] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on March 25 was 2944 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Black Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data for螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 on March 25 was 88.0 yuan/ton [22] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month (10) vs 1 - month, and 9 - month (10) vs 5 - month for螺纹钢, iron ore, etc., are presented. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of螺纹钢 was - 50.0 yuan/ton [21] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, etc., from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are given. For example, the 螺/矿 ratio on March 25 was 3.85 [21] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are provided. For example, the basis of copper on March 25 was - 90 yuan/ton [29] 3.4.2 London Market - Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, etc., on March 25, 2026, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (71.23) [35] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data for soybeans (bean one and bean two), soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are shown. For example, the basis of bean one on March 25 was - 29 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month for various agricultural products are given. For example, the 5 - month vs 1 - month spread of bean one was - 36 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as 豆一/玉米, 豆油/豆粕, etc., from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are provided. For example, the 豆一/玉米 ratio on March 25 was 1.94 [40] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from March 19 to March 25, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on March 25 was 87.47 [51] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month vs current - month and next - quarter vs current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., are given. For example, the next - month vs current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 21.2 [51]

Report Information - Report Title: "Fund Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: March 26, 2026 [1] - Data Date: March 25, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Not provided Summary by Related Catalogs Fund Inflow and Outflow - The vertical axis percentage is calculated as net position divided by total position (unilateral) and daily position change divided by total position (unilateral) [2] Key Seats' Position Changes - **Morgan Chase**: Data on net position and daily position change are presented, with the same - color indicating position increase and the opposite - color indicating position decrease [2] - **Qiankun Futures**: Position data for varieties such as CSI 300 Futures, Peanuts, etc., with net position and daily position change shown, and the color rule for position increase or decrease [3] - **UBS Futures**: Position data for various products are presented, including net position and daily position change, and the color rule for position increase or decrease [3] - **Sinolink Futures**: Position data for some products with daily position change, and the color rule for position increase or decrease [3] - **Guotai Junan**: Position data for some products with daily position change, and the color rule for position increase or decrease [3]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 偏多氛围支撑，甲醇震荡偏强 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏强 | 中期 偏强 | 日内 偏强 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：近期美国一方面抽调其他地区美军部队赶赴中东，另一方面，特朗普向外界释放与伊朗 和谈的信号，有意停火一个月以与伊朗讨论 15 点协议，试图缓和金融市场紧张情绪，提振风险偏好。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It affects risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the prices of various assets [2][4]. - The global economic situation is complex, with concerns about inflation, recession, and the impact of central bank policies. The Fed's hawkish stance and high oil prices have led to changes in market expectations and trading strategies [4][38]. - Different industries and commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some are supported by fundamentals, while others are under pressure due to various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, and changes in demand [13][15][33]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: News includes Iran's stance on the war, potential impacts of the Iran - US conflict on the global economy, corporate projects, and business suspensions [2]. - **基差年化比率**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific basis annualized ratios [3]. - **策略观点**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences, and the hawkish statements of Powell and European Central Bank officials have led to a retreat in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: The prices of different treasury bond contracts have certain changes. There are also news about power statistics and shipping business resumption. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of funds [5]. - **策略观点**: The economic data in January - February improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The Iran geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [8]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets have different trends. There are also relevant policies in Russia and Iran's conditions for ending the war [9]. - **策略观点**: Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus of the market. If the conflict eases, gold may regain its upward momentum. However, in the short term, precious metals still face valuation pressure. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: The copper price rose due to the improvement of market risk sentiment. The LME inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The spot discount in the East China region expanded, while the spot premium in the Guangdong region increased [12]. - **策略观点**: The situation in the Middle East is slightly alleviated but may be repeated. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, but the upward resistance has increased [13]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: The aluminum price fluctuated. The trading volume and inventory of relevant contracts changed. The spot discount in the East China region narrowed [14]. - **策略观点**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, but the market sentiment is still volatile. The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short term [15]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: The zinc price declined. The inventory and basis of zinc in domestic and international markets have specific data [16][17]. - **策略观点**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation. The high oil price has put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [17]. Lead - **行情资讯**: The lead price rose. The inventory and basis of lead in domestic and international markets have specific data [18]. - **策略观点**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range. The downstream buying and the low operating rate of recycling smelting enterprises support the spot price. However, the high oil price and the inflow of overseas lead ingots may put pressure on the lead price, and the price volatility is increasing [18]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: The nickel price declined. The spot price and cost of nickel have specific data [19]. - **策略观点**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to be weak due to the impact of the geopolitical conflict and the Fed's hawkish stance. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is improving, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range [20]. Tin - **行情资讯**: The tin price rose. The production and inventory of tin have specific data [21]. - **策略观点**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. Considering the geopolitical disturbance and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the tin price is expected to be weak [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The price of lithium carbonate increased. The spot and futures prices have specific data [23]. - **策略观点**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The downstream restocking provides support. The supply stability is a concern. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums [24]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: The alumina price declined. The spot price, basis, and inventory have specific data [25]. - **策略观点**: The bauxite export policy in Guinea may lead to an increase in ore prices. The short - term supply of alumina is tight, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: The stainless steel price rose. The spot price, basis, and inventory have specific data [27]. - **策略观点**: The stainless steel price is supported by the increase in raw material costs and policy disturbances. The market supply is still loose, and the demand release is weak. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume, inventory, and price difference have specific data [29]. - **策略观点**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is supported [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices have specific data [32]. - **策略观点**: The steel market is in a weak balance state. The demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations [33]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: The iron ore price declined. The futures price, positions, and spot price have specific data [34]. - **策略观点**: The iron ore price was affected by the negotiation news. The supply is increasing, and the demand is recovering. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **行情资讯**: The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The spot prices, basis, and technical analysis have specific data [36][37]. - **策略观点**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The black sector may be supported to some extent. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see in the short term, and be optimistic about coking coal in the long term [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: The prices of glass and soda ash declined. The spot prices, inventory, and positions have specific data [39][41]. - **策略观点**: The glass market is affected by high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to be volatile. The soda ash market has a loose supply - demand pattern and is expected to be in a low - level wide - range oscillation [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: The price of manganese silicon rose slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon declined slightly. The spot prices, basis, and technical analysis have specific data [42]. - **策略观点**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is better. Attention should be paid to the cost and supply - side factors [43][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: The price of industrial silicon rose, and the price of polysilicon rose. The trading volume, inventory, and spot prices have specific data [47][49]. - **策略观点**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be volatile due to the support of cost and weak demand improvement. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to find the bottom through oscillation [48][50]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: The rubber price rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The operating rates of tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber have specific data [53][54]. - **策略观点**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and take quick profits. Options can be configured, and hedging positions can be held [56]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: The prices of crude oil and related refined products declined [57]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish strategies for crude oil, do long - short spreads for different oil varieties, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [58]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: The methanol price changed. The MTO profit also changed [59]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and do long - short spreads for MTO profits [60]. Urea - **行情资讯**: The urea price changed. The regional spot prices and basis have specific data [61]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to short urea due to the high - level start - up in the first quarter and the limited export quota. Pay attention to the short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory have specific data [63]. - **策略观点**: The profit of non - integrated styrene is neutral to high, and the valuation repair space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [65]. PVC - **行情资讯**: The PVC price declined. The cost, production, demand, and inventory have specific data [66]. - **策略观点**: The short - term fundamentals are affected by the Iran issue. The price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: The ethylene glycol price declined. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost have specific data [68]. - **策略观点**: The industry is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [70]. PTA - **行情资讯**: The PTA price declined. The production, demand, inventory, and processing fee have specific data [71]. - **策略观点**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72]. p - Xylene - **行情资讯**: The p - xylene price declined. The production, demand, inventory, and valuation have specific data [73]. - **策略观点**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: The PE price declined. The spot price, basis, production, inventory, and demand have specific data [75]. - **策略观点**: The PE valuation has downward space. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: The PP price declined. The spot price, basis, production, inventory, and demand have specific data [78]. - **策略观点**: The cost pressure is relieved, and the demand is rebounding seasonally. The long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to the production mismatch [79]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price declined. The prices in different regions and the market situation have specific data [81]. - **策略观点**: The supply is concentrated, and the demand is weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was mostly stable. The prices in different regions and the market situation have specific data [83]. - **策略观点**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: There are forecasts for the planting areas of corn and soybeans in the US, export data, and inventory data [85]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation and the relaxation of soybean import inspection standards are negative for the meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [86]. Oils and Fats - **行情资讯**: There are policies and production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia [87][89]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is negative for the oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [90]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: There are import data, production data, and consumption data of sugar [93][94]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is negative for the sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [95]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: There are import data, production data, and consumption data of cotton [91]. - **策略观点**: The new import quota is negative for the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short term and positive for the US cotton price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it already includes the current geopolitical premium, so take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. - For urea, short at high prices considering the high - price and unfavorable time for demand, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. - For PVC, it is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. - For polyethylene, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. - For PX, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 28.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 3.72%, at 723.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 300.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.45%, at 4348.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 209.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.89%, at 5159.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by (97.00) yuan/ton, reported at 3089 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 11 yuan [3]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and do long on the MTO profit at low prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan 0 yuan/ton, Hebei 0 yuan/ton, Hubei 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 3 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, reported at 1863 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy**: Short at high prices, and expect short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Crude oil declined while RU rebounded. The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls believe in limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, improved demand in China, and rubber substitution. Bears believe in a marginal decline in macro - expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of March 19, 2026, the full - steel tire production load of Shandong tire enterprises was 69.22%, up 0.58 percentage points from last week and 0.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The semi - steel tire production load of domestic tire enterprises was 77.17%, up 0.48 percentage points from last week and down 5.57 percentage points from the same period last year. Middle - East export orders were still on hold. As of March 15, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56 million tons, a decline of 1.13%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 92.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.34%. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.39 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.94 million tons to 69.21 million tons. In the spot market, Thai standard mixed rubber was 15350 (+100) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1970 (+30) US dollars, STR20 mixed was 1985 (+45) US dollars, Shandong butadiene was 18000 (+100) yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 18300 (+500) yuan, and North China cis - butadiene was 16800 (+500) yuan. The Asian butadiene production rate decreased, and supply decreased, with an expected strong butadiene market [9][10][11]. - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and continue to hold the position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 150 yuan, reported at 5703 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5500 (-360) yuan/ton, the basis was 203 (-170) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 98 (-11) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2750 (+15) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke medium - sized material was 735 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 1450 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 728 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC production rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 84.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the ethylene method was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%. The overall downstream production rate was 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%. The in - factory inventory was 36.5 million tons (-1.2), and the social inventory was 137.1 million tons (-3.6) [14]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to rise in the short - term before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of large short - term increases [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 8245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8313 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 108 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 10105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 137 yuan/ton; the basis was 95 yuan/ton, a weakening of 63 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was - 47.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton. The non - integrated EB device profit was - 212.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126.8 yuan/ton. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 70.46%, a decrease of 1.33%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.25 million tons, an increase of 0.60 million tons. The weighted production rate of the three S products was 40.93%, an increase of 0.60%. The PS production rate was 51.60%, a decrease of 0.10%; the EPS production rate was 61.00%, an increase of 3.22%; the ABS production rate was 67.10%, a decrease of 0.30% [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to high non - integrated profit, wide supply, and large geopolitical influence on the market [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 203 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton. The basis was - 215 yuan/ton, a weakening of 147 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 80.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 56.83 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.48 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 147 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 35 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, a weakening of 136 yuan/ton. The upstream production rate was 71.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 59.62 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.14 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.36 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.244 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million tons. The downstream average production rate was 46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The LL - PP spread was - 260 yuan/ton, a month - on - month narrowing of 64 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 383 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 206 yuan, reported at 9502 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 22 yuan (-18). The PX load in China was 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 74.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. Some devices had issues such as postponed restart and shutdown. The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. In terms of imports, South Korea's PX exports to China in the first and middle ten - days of March were 31.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of February was 480 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16 million tons. The PXN was 139 US dollars (+26), the South Korean PX - MX was 91 US dollars (+4), and the naphtha cracking spread was 385 US dollars (-100) [26]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious of large short - term increases [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 102 yuan, reported at 6592 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 108 yuan (-2). The PTA load was 80.8%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The social inventory on March 6 was 285.4 million tons. The on - disk processing fee increased by 33 yuan to 359 yuan [29]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is hard to rise, but PXN is expected to rise significantly [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 83 yuan, reported at 5036 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 96 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol production rate was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; among them, the syngas - based production rate was 72.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%; the ethylene - based production rate was 63.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Some devices had load adjustments. The downstream load was 87.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. The terminal texturing load remained flat at 74%, and the loom load increased by 1% to 65%. The import arrival forecast was 11.7 million tons, and the East China departure was 0.8 million tons on March 24. The port inventory was 103.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 2680 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1310 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 1450 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder rebounded to 640 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle, and the oil - chemical profit is at a low level, but be cautious of large short - term increases [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts in March 2026, including stock index futures, precious metals futures, base metals futures, energy futures, and chemical futures [2]. - The report also provides the market performance of various futures contracts on March 24, 2026, and predicts the market trends on March 25, 2026 [11][30][33]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, and IM2606 contracts are expected to be weak and volatile in March 2026, with specific resistance and support levels provided. On March 25, they are likely to be in a consolidation phase [2][15][16]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to be weak and volatile in March 2026. On March 25, the AU2606 and AG2606 contracts are likely to be strong and volatile [2][30][33]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, and other base metals futures are expected to be weak and volatile in March 2026. Alumina futures are expected to be strong and volatile [2][38][44]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt futures are expected to be strong and volatile in March 2026 and are likely to reach new highs. On March 25, they are likely to be weak and volatile [2][68][73][76]. - **Chemical Futures**: Linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are expected to be strong and volatile in March 2026. On March 25, they are likely to be weak and volatile [2][82][86][90]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - Diplomatic events include China's diplomatic communication with Iran and Japan, and China - US economic and trade exchanges [5]. - Central bank operations: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on March 25, with a net withdrawal of 250 billion yuan of medium - term liquidity in March [5]. - International events: The US has proposed a 15 - item plan to end the conflict with Iran, and the US president has made statements about the Iran issue. US and European economic data show different trends [6][7][8]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - Related Information - Oil prices: US API crude oil inventory increased more than expected, putting pressure on oil prices. The main contracts of US oil and Brent oil showed different trends [9]. - Precious metals: International precious metal futures generally rose, supported by factors such as geopolitical uncertainty and the expected slowdown of the US dollar [9]. - Base metals: Most London base metals fell, with only LME aluminum rising [10]. - Shipping and trade: Iran has started charging tolls on some merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the EU has postponed the proposal to permanently ban the import of Russian oil [10]. - Exchange rates: The on - shore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar showed different trends, and the US dollar index rose slightly [10][11]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On March 24, the main contracts of stock index futures showed a trend of opening higher, rising and then falling, and finally rebounding. The A - share market rebounded strongly, and the Hong Kong stock market also rebounded significantly. US and European stock markets showed different trends [11][13][14][15]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: On March 24, the main contracts of gold and silver futures showed different trends of opening higher and then fluctuating. They are expected to be weak and volatile in March 2026 and strong and volatile on March 25 [30][33]. - **Base Metals Futures**: On March 24, the main contracts of copper, alumina, and other base metals futures showed different trends of opening higher or lower and then fluctuating. Their trends in March 2026 and on March 25 are predicted [38][44]. - **Energy Futures**: On March 24, the main contracts of crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt futures showed a trend of opening lower and then falling significantly. They are expected to be strong and volatile in March 2026 and weak and volatile on March 25 [68][73][76]. - **Chemical Futures**: On March 24, the main contracts of linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, and other chemical futures showed a trend of opening lower and then falling significantly. They are expected to be strong and volatile in March 2026 and weak and volatile on March 25 [82][86][90].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Given the new developments in the Middle East situation and the sharp drop in crude oil prices after the peace talk news, methanol is expected to continue to be strong after a short - term correction due to the time needed for supply to return to pre - war levels and the incomplete passage of the Strait of Hormuz. However, short - term risks are high, and it is necessary to closely monitor the US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [4] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of March 19, China's methanol production was 2,074,815 tons, an increase of 53,680 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 92.87%, a 2.65% increase from the previous week. There were new maintenance and production - reduction devices this period, and some devices resumed production. The overall recovery volume was more than the loss volume, resulting in an increase in production and capacity utilization [1] - China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 485,400 tons, a decrease of 37,700 tons from the previous period, a 7.21% decrease; the sample enterprise order backlog was 279,300 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous period, a 5.26% increase [1] - Zhengshang Institute decided to add Anhui Province as a methanol futures delivery area and publicly solicit designated delivery warehouses for methanol futures. The premium and discount for the new delivery area is 150 yuan/ton, to be implemented from the date of the announcement of the new delivery warehouses [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In March, the traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz dropped by more than 90%. An Iranian vessel ordered an unauthorized ship to return, and the UK Royal Navy plans to lead a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz [2] - A person from the securities department of China Merchants Energy Shipping revealed that the company has no ships stranded in the Persian Gulf, has no plans to pass through the risk area after the war, and is using other shipping routes. The current tanker freight rate has increased by more than 50% compared to before the war [2] - The US plans to cease fire for one month, and a plan to end the conflict with Iran was exposed [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Not provided

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, polyolefins opened significantly lower and closed with a negative candlestick. For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable while PetroChina raised some prices by 200. For drawn PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina kept prices stable. Fundamentally, the "taco" situation reappeared and oil prices plummeted. Currently, the macro - environment has a repeated impact on the chemical industry during trading. The future focus should be on the actual operation of plants and the support of demand at lower levels [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 8443, 8918, and 8736 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the price drops were - 275, - 605, and - 576, with percentage drops of - 3.15%, - 6.35%, and - 6.19%. The trading volumes were 10692, 1133666, and 368709, and the open interests were 9768, 314927, and 156955, with changes of 1460, - 58310, and - 10289. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 475, 182, and 293, compared with previous values of - 805, 211, and 594 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 8394, 9114, and 8780 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the price drops were - 193, - 679, and - 514, with percentage drops of - 2.25%, - 6.93%, and - 5.53%. The trading volumes were 11775, 1328839, and 372394, and the open interests were 18589, 339558, and 169925, with changes of 2245, - 59592, and - 21892. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 720, 334, and 386, compared with previous values of - 1206, 499, and 707 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 3136 yuan/ton, 9030 yuan/ton, 1080 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 9160 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 3349 yuan/ton, 9075 yuan/ton, 1159 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 9160 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 8950 - 9800 yuan/ton, 8800 - 9800 yuan/ton, and 9150 - 9750 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 8950 - 9700 yuan/ton, and 8800 - 9700 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 9000 - 9300 yuan/ton, 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 9200 - 9600 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 9150 - 9700 yuan/ton, 9150 - 9350 yuan/ton, and 9350 - 9600 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Tuesday (March 24), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $92.35 per barrel, up $4.22 from the previous trading day, a 4.79% increase, with a trading range of $86.34 - $93.36. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $104.49 per barrel, up $4.55 from the previous trading day, a 4.55% increase, with a trading range of $98.15 - $105.00 [2].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-03-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 地缘风险降温，甲醇震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏强 | 中期 偏强 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期美国一方面抽调其他地区美军部队赶赴中东，另一方面，特朗普向外界释放与伊朗 和谈的信号，有意停火一个月以与伊朗讨论 15 点协议，试图缓和金融市场紧张情绪，提振风险偏好。 短期来看，特朗普释放和谈信号，但被伊朗辟谣，美国或实 ...