行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 24 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 3 月 23 日，纯碱主力期货 SA605 由跌转涨。收盘价 1256 元/吨，上涨 49 元/吨, 涨幅为 4.05%，日减仓 77032 手。 从基本 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Views - The short - term trend of coking coal is strong, but the risks of high - level fluctuations and pullbacks are significantly increasing. Gold can be considered for short - selling after a rebound. The methanol market is expected to continue its strong trend in the short term. For other products, specific analysis and operation suggestions are provided based on supply, demand, and technical aspects [3][11][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - The main contract of coking coal hit the daily limit, reaching 1,289.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of about 11% and a cumulative increase of over 26%, hitting a new high in 2026. The core drivers of the limit - up are the energy substitution expectation pushed by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increase in domestic steel mill production and iron - water output, and the obvious increase in positions on the capital side. The suppression and risk points include high total inventory, limited steel mill profits, and over - heated sentiment after the limit - up. Operationally, it is recommended to be cautious near the integer - level resistance, set stop - losses and take - profits, and pay attention to geopolitical easing, restocking rhythm, and inventory data [3] Stock Index Futures - The market opened lower and fluctuated downwards on Monday, and the Shanghai Composite Index once fell below 3,800 points. Technically, it is in an accelerated decline phase, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] Gold - The red - green line on the daily chart of gold has turned bearish. Gold has been in a weak adjustment throughout the day, and it can be considered for short - selling after a rebound [11] Iron Ore - The shipments from Australia and Brazil maintain a normal rhythm, and there is still an expectation of loose supply in the medium - to - long - term. The demand side may see an increase in steel mill production after the holiday, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, when approaching the previous high, long - position holders should pay attention to protecting profits [13][14] Glass - The daily melting has declined slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range shock before the upper resistance is broken [18] Methanol - The rising market is driven by multiple positive factors such as the unexpected restart of port MTO plants, a sharp decrease in import arrivals, and a surge in foreign natural gas prices. The spot market has followed the increase actively, and the price difference between ports and the inland has widened rapidly. It is expected that the strong market will continue in the short term [21] Pulp - The current futures price of pulp has broken through the low of nearly a year ago. Although there is still some downward space, it is relatively limited, attracting some enterprise customers to take over. There is some bottom support, and attention should be paid to position control [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The glass market is in a game between "supply contraction expectations" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), with high inventory being the biggest pressure on the price rebound. The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1]. - The core logic of the soda ash market is the mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Although short - term factors support the price, the fundamental driving force is weakening, and the market may face a downward adjustment. However, in the short term, it may be affected by the situation and be oscillating strongly [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Glass - Market performance: The main glass contract opened lower and closed higher, strengthening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure is around the 10 - day moving average of 1090, and the support is around the lower Bollinger Band of 1040. The trading volume increased by 682,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 33,078 lots. The intraday high was 1094, the low was 1045, and the closing price was 1082, up 23 yuan/ton or 2.17% from yesterday's settlement price [1]. - Market situation: The real - estate data last month continued to be sluggish, and the recent recovery of downstream demand was also lower than expected. The spot market still faces the pressure of high inventory and weak demand. However, due to the geopolitical situation, the cost of energy and raw materials has risen sharply [1]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the recovery of terminal demand [1]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The main soda ash contract opened higher and closed higher, strengthening during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a short - term (slightly stronger) oscillation signal. The pressure is around the upper Bollinger Band of 1290, and the short - term support is around the 10 - day moving average of 1240. The trading volume increased by 626,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 77,032 lots. The intraday high was 1266, the low was 1198, and the closing price was 1256, up 49 yuan/ton or 4.06% from yesterday's settlement price [2]. - Inventory situation: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8116 million tons, a decrease of 42,200 tons or 2.28% compared with last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash was 946,800 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons, and heavy soda ash was 864,800 tons, a decrease of 25,900 tons [2]. - Market situation: The mismatch between high supply, weak demand, and high inventory in the soda ash industry has not improved. Short - term geopolitical risks push up energy costs and marginal inventory reduction support the market. However, due to the expected reduction of float glass production and the impact of the photovoltaic industry, the rigid demand for soda ash is weak [2]. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to be affected by the situation and oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in international energy prices and whether the high inventory of soda ash can continue to be reduced [4].

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2026.3.16-3.20 每周观点 上周玻璃期货震荡下行，主力合约FG2605收盘较前一周下跌7.14%报1054元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价968元/吨，较前一周下跌0.82%。 玻璃供给方面，原料价格回升，玻璃生产利润走低，下周个别产线存在放水预期， 周产量或继续收窄；上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产207条，开工率70.41%，日熔量14.57 万吨，供给低位。需求方面，下游加工厂虽陆续复工，但复产情况受订单偏弱制约表现 并不乐观，部分在原片企业连续提涨下，适量补货，周内虽浮法玻璃行业整体产销过百， 库存下降，但出货情况环比上周略有放缓。截至3月19日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存 7443.6万重量箱，较前一周下跌1.86%，库 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2026-3-23 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润小幅修复，冷修不及预期，供给低位；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱， 库存同期历史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货968元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1054元/吨，基差为-86元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存7443.6万重量箱，较前一周下跌1.86%，库存在5年均值上方运行； 偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：成本端提升，短期预计玻璃震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、玻璃生产利润低位，产量下行。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单数量历史同期 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on soda ash and glass futures from March 23 - 27, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Soda ash futures are in a volatile stage. The spot market was stable but slightly weak last week, with the price center moving down slightly. Supply was generally sufficient, and downstream procurement was cautious. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [6] 2. Trading Strategies - **Last week's strategy review**: The soda ash market rose first and then stabilized last week. The increase was driven by futures sentiment, but the fundamentals of high supply and weak demand remained unchanged. Futures fluctuated sharply, dominated by the game between macro - sentiment and fundamental suppression [9] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The soda ash market had a loose supply - demand situation last week. The spot price dropped slightly, and the futures trended down. The fundamental contradictions continued to suppress the price, and it is in a weak and volatile state [10] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly soda ash开工率,产量,轻质库存,重质库存,基差 (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly) [11][15][17] Group 3: Glass Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Glass is in a volatile trend. The float glass market had mixed price movements last week, with overall limited fluctuations. The current supply - demand situation has marginally improved but not fundamentally. High inventory and weak demand continue to suppress prices. The futures market is in a weak downward trend, and it is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see [30] 2. Trading Strategies - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass market was slightly stronger last week, with prices rising slightly. Supply contraction expectations and futures strength boosted the market, and inventories in various regions generally decreased. Futures had a long - short game, with high - inventory suppression and cost support coexisting, and it continued to fluctuate in the short term [33] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The float glass spot prices had mixed movements last week, with regional differentiation. High inventory and weak demand continue to suppress the market, and it will maintain a weak consolidation in the short term. The futures market is in a weak downward trend, and the weak reality dominates the market [34] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes China's weekly float glass产量,开工率, production cost and production profit margin of the float process using natural gas as fuel,基差 (daily), and期末库存 [36][40][43] 4. Market Indicators - For glass futures, the main funds are strongly bearish, with a small inflow of main funds, and there is a relatively high risk of a market reversal [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is significantly affected by geopolitical events, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which has led to fluctuations in prices of various commodities. The market is worried about issues such as rising oil prices, inflation, and potential recession. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these factors [1][2][5][7][8] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the international gold price denominated in London gold fell by 3.42% to $4491.67 per ounce; the domestic gold market also declined, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's 9999 gold down 2.55% to 1041.59, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold main contract down 2.22% to 1039.22 yuan per gram. The international silver price dropped 7.12% to $67.596 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: Trump gave Iran 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to destroy its power plants; Iran considered "temporarily" allowing Japanese ships to pass through. There were rumors that Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries sold gold due to tight funds. There were outflows from domestic gold ETFs, and changes in inventories of various gold and silver products [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Gold prices may continue to correct in the short term, but the long - term logic remains unchanged. It is recommended to consider deploying long positions at an appropriate time. For silver, it is recommended to partially close out short positions [1] 3.2 Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices continued to decline significantly [2] - **Fundamentals**: The core logic is that the war has led to rising oil prices, and the probability of interest rate cuts this year has almost disappeared, leading to concerns about stagflation or recession. The supply of copper ore has become more tense, and the processing fee has reached - 67 US dollars. The demand side shows a certain pattern, and the domestic copper rod start - up rate has increased significantly, with inventory starting to decline [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trading core lies in the changes in the war situation. Attention should be paid to whether Trump takes certain actions and when the two sides start negotiations [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.66% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 24020 yuan per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate has increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East conflict has brought systematic risks to the aluminum supply chain and supported aluminum prices, but it has also pushed up inflation expectations. In the short term, the macro - level pressure on aluminum prices may be greater than the industrial - level support, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.46% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 3041 yuan per ton [3] - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and the electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The expected supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea in April, the increase in the cost of imported ore and energy shipping, and the reduction of regional available spot due to the maintenance and production reduction of some northern capacities support the price. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the high domestic inventory and the gradual release of new capacities may limit the upward space [3] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8455 yuan per ton, an increase of 170 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.05% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The number of industrial silicon furnaces in operation increased this week, mainly in the southwest region. The demand side shows different trends in different industries, such as the recovery of polysilicon production and the stable output of the organic silicon industry [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the weak overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metal market, the price of industrial silicon weakened rapidly in the first half of the week. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound pattern between 8100 - 8900 [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 143,860 yuan per ton, an increase of 1260 yuan, with a closing price increase of 0.88% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate decreased. The supply increased, and the demand of different materials also increased. The inventory showed a certain pattern of change [3] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, there are factors of supply - side disturbances and uncertain recovery of power demand. The market is expected to be under pressure, and the subsequent upward driving force depends on the consumption of new energy vehicles in March and the demand production schedule in April [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 37765 yuan per ton, a decrease of 785 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 2.04% [3] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure has been marginally alleviated, and the demand side shows a pattern of price decline and production recovery [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon continues to decline, and the market sentiment is weak. It is recommended to focus on the actual procurement situation and transaction order prices of downstream products and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3] Tin - **Market Performance**: On Friday, tin prices continued to decline significantly [4] - **Fundamentals**: The core logic is similar to that of copper, with concerns about stagflation or recession. The supply of tin ore has been relatively relieved, and the demand side has increased replenishment enthusiasm after the price decline [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The trading core lies in the changes in the war situation. If the war does not ease, metals will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities after certain events [4] 3.3 Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3148 yuan per ton, an increase of 15 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The steel spot market trading is gradually recovering, with short - term weak supply and demand. The demand for building materials is expected to be weak, while the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is recovering, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the production increase space is limited [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the reference range of RB05 being 3120 - 3180 [5] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 816.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 2 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand situation of iron ore has improved marginally. The steel - making iron water output has increased, but the profit of steel mills is poor, and the subsequent increase in blast furnace production is limited. There are structural contradictions in the port inventory [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the reference range of I05 being 800 - 830 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1263.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 102.5 yuan per ton compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The steel - making iron water output has increased, and there is a game in the coking coal price. The supply port clearance is at a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The futures of the 05 contract are at a premium to the spot [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the reference range of JM05 being 1200 - 1289.5 [5] 3.4 Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans fell slightly [6] - **Fundamentals**: The global soybean supply is expected to be abundant, and the current supply peak in Brazil and normal growth in Argentina. The demand side shows strong US soybean crushing and seasonal exports [6] - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans may enter a shock phase, affected by crude oil support and supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the realization of crude oil and US soybean demand, and the domestic market also follows the cost side [6] Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to rise, while spot prices fell [6] - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress is approaching 80% but is relatively slow. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and the wheat price has weakened. The spot price is expected to be adjusted weakly [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The price in the production area has loosened, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6] Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed last Friday [6] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to enter a seasonal increase, and the demand shows a certain increase in exports [6] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the driving force of edible oils still follows crude oil, and attention should be paid to crude oil and production in the production area [6] Cotton - **Market Performance**: Last Friday, ICE US cotton futures prices fell, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuated narrowly [6] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, attention should be paid to the planting report data at the end of the month. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated strongly, and the spread between 5 - 9 contracts maintained a narrow - range shock [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy, with the price range reference of 14900 - 15500 yuan per ton [6] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, while spot prices were stable [6] - **Fundamentals**: The demand for Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking has boosted the spot market, but the supply is sufficient due to the high inventory of laying hens [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to decline, and spot prices also continued to fall [6] - **Fundamentals**: The slaughter volume in March increased significantly compared with February, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to decline due to strong supply and weak demand [6] 3.5 Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the LLDPE main contract rose significantly. The low - price spot quotation in North China over the weekend was 8700 yuan per ton, and the 05 contract basis was weak [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to decrease significantly in the short term due to factors such as no new device production in the first half of the year and planned production reduction of some devices. The demand is improving as downstream enterprises resume work, and it is the peak season for agricultural film demand in March and April [7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, follow the crude oil trend and be strong. In the medium term, as the situation in the US - Iran conflict eases and new devices are put into production in the second half of the year, the supply - demand pressure will increase, and it is recommended to short at high prices [7] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 6098, up 4% [7] - **Fundamentals**: PVC prices rose due to the increase in international oil prices, and the supply and demand situation showed a pattern of supply reduction and stable demand. The social inventory began to decline [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct positive arbitrage [7] Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1076, up 1.6% [7] - **Fundamentals**: Glass was affected by crude oil, and the inventory began to decline. The supply side had significant production reduction, and the downstream demand was weak [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct positive arbitrage [7] PP - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the PP main contract rose significantly. The spot price in East China was 9200 yuan per ton, and the 05 contract basis was weak [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure has been significantly reduced in the short term due to factors such as reduced new device production and planned production reduction of some devices. The demand is improving as downstream enterprises resume work [7] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, follow the crude oil trend and be strong. In the long - term, as the US - Iran conflict eases and new devices are put into production, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but still have contradictions, and it is recommended to short at high prices [7] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: From March 16th to March 20th, the US - Iran conflict caused the oil price to rise by 80%. The situation has escalated, and the oil price is likely to break through the previous high [8] - **Fundamentals**: The US - Iran conflict involves multiple Gulf countries, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a significant reduction in crude oil exports. Although the current production has not been significantly affected, the shipping volume has decreased, and some countries have been forced to reduce production [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The oil price may continue to rise if the Strait of Hormuz is continuously blocked, but it may reverse if the war situation eases. Attention should be paid to risks [8] Styrene - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the EB main contract rose slightly. The spot market quotation in East China was 10500 yuan per ton, and the trading atmosphere was average [8] - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene has decreased slightly. The supply is expected to be tight in the short term due to the US - Iran conflict, and the demand side shows an improvement in the start - up rate [8] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, follow the crude oil trend. In the long - term, as the geopolitical conflict eases, the supply - demand situation will weaken [8] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1233, up 2% [8] - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash prices stopped falling and rebounded due to the increase in crude oil prices. The supply is recovering, and the inventory is decreasing. The downstream demand shows different trends in different industries [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [8]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 3 / 2 3 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 铁矿石期货上涨，后续行情该如何演绎？ 短期（1-2周）：震荡偏强，反弹空间有限 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 当前铁矿石主力合约815.5元/吨，短期上涨由钢厂补库、政策预期与成本支撑共同推动。港口库存虽处历史 高位（约1.8亿吨），但疏港略有改善，叠加铁水复产预期，价格有阶段性反弹动力。上方阻力820-830元/ 吨，下方支撑800元/吨整数关口，大概率维持区间震荡，难有单边大涨。 中期（1-3个月）：供强需弱，承压下行概率大 全球供应宽松格局未改，四大矿山发运增量明显，西芒杜等新产能持续释放，进口同比显著增加。国内房地 产用钢需求修复温和，钢材高库存去化缓慢，钢厂盈利偏弱，负反馈风险上升。二季度后，旺季需求兑现不 及预期，高库存压制将主导盘面，价格中枢大概率下移。 操作建议： 短期可轻仓试多；中期逢高布局空单更优，严控仓位与止损，重点跟踪铁水产量、港口库存及终端需求数据。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 ...

玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策）与"弱现实需求"（地产 低迷）的博弈，高库存仍是盘面反弹的最大压力。短期燃料和纯碱原料价格下跌， 成本端支撑走弱，叠加地产数据延续低迷、下游需求恢复也不及预期，现货面临 高库存压力；同时市场对地缘冲突的情绪影响逐渐减弱。 预计盘面延续宽幅震荡、短期波段向下调整。关注地缘局势以及终端需求恢 复情况。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃、纯碱日报：日内震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 20 日 玻璃：今日玻璃主力低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。日线 macd 和 ma 组合共振死叉， 120 分钟布林带开口向下，短期震荡偏弱信号，压力看日线的 5 均线 1080 附近， 支撑先关注布林带下轨线 1050 附近。成交量较昨日减 23.7 万手，持仓量较昨日 增 16505 手；日内最高 1068，最低 1051，收盘 1054，（较昨日结算价）跌 14 元/吨，跌幅 1.31%。 纯碱：主力合约低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。日线 macd 和 ma 组合共振死叉，120 分钟布林带三轨向下，短 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market is affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices (London gold) fell by - 3.39% to $4650.503 per ounce; domestic gold (9999 on the Gold Exchange) fell by - 3.58% to 1061, and the Shanghai Gold main contract fell by - 3.32% to 1062 yuan per gram. International silver prices fell by 3.56% to $72.778 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: Global central banks' hawkish stances due to inflation pressure from the Middle - East conflict, US approval of Russian oil sales, and Trump's call for Powell to cut interest rates. There were small outflows from domestic gold ETFs, and changes in various gold and silver inventories [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Consider re - laying out long positions in gold; partially close out short positions in silver [1] Base Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The main electrolytic aluminum contract closed at 24180 yuan per ton, down - 2.50% from the previous trading day, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 105 yuan per ton, and the LME price at 3340 dollars per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product operating rate [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to fluctuate weakly, and suggest waiting and seeing [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The main alumina contract closed at 3027 yuan per ton, down - 0.69% from the previous trading day, with a domestic 0 - 3 month spread of - 344 yuan per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Stable increase in alumina operating capacity and high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to Guinea's bauxite policy [2] Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8285 yuan per ton, down 90 yuan or - 1.07% from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest by 6591 lots to 253549 lots (+2.67%), a decrease in trading volume by 33633 lots to 172736 lots (-16.30%), an increase in funds in the variety by 0.78 billion to 31.95 billion, and 21669 lots of warehouse receipts (no change) [2][3] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in the number of furnaces in operation, expected increase in production in Sichuan due to lower electricity prices, slight inventory reduction, and expected increase in monthly production of polysilicon, stable production in the organic silicon industry, and rising aluminum alloy prices and operating rate [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The market is affected by macro - events, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 8900 [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 142,600 yuan per ton, down 7520 yuan or - 5.0% [3] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, increase in weekly production of lithium carbonate, expected increase in March production, increase in production of downstream materials, and changes in inventory [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The market expects faster domestic lithium resource approval, but the price is expected to be under pressure [3] Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 38550 yuan per ton, down 1555 yuan or - 3.88% from the previous trading day, with a decrease in open interest by 1612 lots to 32966 lots (-4.66%), an increase in trading volume by 4804 lots to 13502 lots (+55.23%), a decrease in funds in the variety by 2.26 billion to 17.99 billion, and 9910 lots of warehouse receipts (no change) [3] - **Fundamentals**: Slight increase in production and inventory, and changes in downstream product prices and production schedules [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price has dropped, and the market will test the production cost pressure level of leading factories [3] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3133 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in apparent demand and production, weak supply - demand in the short term, low profit for steel mills, and limited production increase space [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and close out short positions opportunistically. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 814.5 yuan per ton, up 9.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [4] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in pig iron production, decrease in inventory, neutral - weak supply - demand, and high inventory days [4][5] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1161 yuan per ton, down 14 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in pig iron production, the first round of coke price cut, high inventory in some links, and high futures valuation [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and close out short positions opportunistically. The reference range for JM05 is 1140 - 1200 [5] Agricultural Products Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices showed mixed trends [6] - **Fundamentals**: Over 70% of grain sales completed, low inventory at ports and downstream, weakening spot prices in production areas [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5427 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. The basis between Nanning spot and Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract was 26 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar after processing and tax payment was 610 yuan per ton [6] - **Fundamentals**: Expectation of a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, increase in Guangxi's sugar production estimate, and macro - funds' long - position allocation [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [6] Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices fell, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuated weakly. Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated downwards [6] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in US cotton export sales, decrease in unpriced selling orders, increase in the operating rate of domestic textile enterprises [6][7] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a price range of 15000 - 15400 yuan per ton [7] Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices rose slightly [7] - **Fundamentals**: Rainy weather affected storage, high egg - laying hen inventory, and low - season demand [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to weaken, and spot prices continued to fall, with the national average price below 10 yuan/kg [7] - **Fundamentals**: Increase in slaughter volume in March, high slaughter weight, and low - season demand [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be weak [7] Energy Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose significantly. The low - price spot in North China was 8400 yuan per ton, with a weak basis. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [8] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in domestic supply due to planned production cuts, and improvement in demand in the peak season [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term and short at high prices in the medium term [8] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 5862, up 0.4% [8] - **Fundamentals**: Price increase due to rising oil prices, high inventory, and weak real - estate demand [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [8] Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1065, down 1.3% [8] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in supply, decrease in inventory, and weak real - estate demand [8][9] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9] PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract rose significantly. The spot price in East China was 9100 yuan per ton, with a weak basis. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [9] - **Fundamentals**: Decrease in supply due to production cuts, and improvement in demand [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term and short at high prices in the medium - long term [9] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to the US - Iran conflict, with a significant increase [9] - **Fundamentals**: The conflict affected multiple Gulf countries, with a large potential reduction in oil exports. There was a decrease in Iranian oil exports [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Oil prices may continue to rise if the conflict persists, but may reverse if the situation eases [9] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract rose slightly. The spot price in East China was 10300 yuan per ton, with a general trading atmosphere. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [9][10] - **Fundamentals**: Improvement in the pure benzene supply - demand pattern, slight reduction in styrene inventory, and improvement in downstream demand [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil fluctuations in the short term, and the supply - demand will weaken in the long term [10] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1217, down 0.8% [10] - **Fundamentals**: Supply recovery, decrease in inventory, and weak downstream demand [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]