证券研究报告 跟踪经济、掘金市场 | 主要观点： | 报告日期：2025-10-09 | | --- | --- | | √ 中证全指的风险溢价百分位为 45.07%，表明市场整体处于正 | 执业信息 | | 常回报区域。 | 林烽 策略分析师 执业编号：S1750522120001 | | √ 沪深 300 的风险溢价当前值为 5.17%，回报水平较高，值得重 | 电话：18605980882 | | 点关注。 | 邮件：linfeng@jypscnet.com | | √ 中证全指的市净率百分位为 41.77%，表明市场整体处于正常 | 免责声明 | | 估值状态。 | 报告观点基于逻辑分析、 | | √ 上证指数的市净率百分位为 22.68%，估值水平相对较低，值 | 数据规律推演，并不能预知不 同市场主体在复杂约束下的 | | 得重点关注。 | 多样选择结果。 | | √ 中证全指乖离率为 18.59%，表明市场整体价格水平处于正常 | 相关报告 | | 偏强区域。 | 20250201《策略月报：指 | | √ 科创 50 和创业板 50 处于超买状态，适度警惕短线风险。 | 数化投资策略月报（20 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, domestic major stock indices rose across the board, with small and medium - cap indices generally outperforming large - cap indices. The growth style index showed a significant increase, while the financial and stable style indices declined. In the ETF market, both comprehensive and thematic ETFs had increased trading volumes, and there was a clear inflow of funds into sectors such as brokers, consumption, technology, and non - ferrous metals [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Fund Market Overview 1.1 Stock Market - Last week (2025/08/25 - 2025/08/29), major domestic stock indices all rose. The large - cap indices such as CSI 300, SSE 50, and SSE Composite Index had weekly increases of 2.71%, 1.63%, and 0.84% respectively. Small and medium - cap indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index rose by 3.24%, 1.03%, and 7.74% respectively. Style indices showed mixed performance, with financial, cyclical, consumer, growth, and stable style indices having weekly changes of - 1.31%, 0.94%, 0.54%, 4.45%, and - 0.81% respectively. Among the growth styles, large - cap, mid - cap, and small - cap growth style indices changed by 3.38%, 2.51%, and - 1.33% respectively [1][8] - Recent A - share trading activity has been oscillating upwards and is currently close to the level in December 2024 [9] 1.2 Bond Market and Futures Market - Last week, the SSE Convertible Bond Index fell by 2.68%. Pure - bond indices all rose, with the SSE Treasury Bond, SSE Corporate Bond, and Shenzhen Local Government Bond indices rising by 0.04%, 0.03%, and 0.03% respectively. Major stock index futures contracts all rose, with CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 futures rising by 0.49%, 0.12%, and 1.70% respectively. 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures prices rose by 0.13%, 0.18%, and 0.03% respectively [15][16] 1.3 Commodity Market - In the past week, the commodity market showed mixed performance. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index, CRB Metal Spot Index, and CRB Commodity Index rose by 1.77%, 1.35%, and 0.78% respectively. Domestic key commodity futures contracts also showed mixed results, with DCE Iron Ore, SHFE Silver, and SHFE Nickel futures rising by 2.34%, 1.80%, and 1.75% respectively [18][21] 2. ETF Market行情统计 2.1 Domestic Stock - type ETF Trading Activity Ranking - Using the weekly fund turnover rate (trading volume / on - exchange floating shares) as a measure of ETF trading activity, high turnover rates indicate possible large differences in market views on a sector. Last week, trading hotspots were concentrated in comprehensive indices such as ChiNext 50 and CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF, as well as sectors like semiconductors, liquor, and securities [24] 3. Size - style Monitoring 3.1 Comprehensive Stock ETF - As of last week, the total trading volume of comprehensive ETFs was 138.425 billion yuan, an increase of 28.081 billion yuan from the previous week. Among them, the trading volume of large - and mid - cap style comprehensive ETFs was 58.276 billion yuan, an increase of 11.307 billion yuan, and that of small - and mid - cap comprehensive ETFs was 84.351 billion yuan, an increase of 19.109 billion yuan. The on - exchange floating shares of comprehensive ETFs were 361.949 billion shares, an increase of 6.94 billion shares from the previous week. Large - and mid - cap style comprehensive ETFs had 241.165 billion shares, an increase of 19.28 billion shares, while small - and mid - cap comprehensive ETFs had 120.785 billion shares, a decrease of 12.34 billion shares [26] 3.2 Thematic Stock ETF - As of last week, the average weekly return of 32 thematic ETFs was 3.39%. The average weekly return of large - cap style ETFs was 0.95%, and that of small - and mid - cap style ETFs was 5.30%. The total trading volume of tracked thematic ETFs was 138.149 billion yuan, an increase of 30.701 billion yuan from the previous week. Large - cap style ETFs had a trading volume of 73.042 billion yuan, an increase of 14.991 billion yuan, and small - and mid - cap style ETFs had a trading volume of 65.107 billion yuan, an increase of 15.711 billion yuan. The on - exchange floating shares of thematic ETFs were 408.707 billion shares, an increase of 6.175 billion shares from the previous week. Large - and mid - cap style thematic ETFs had 193.157 billion shares, an increase of 12.045 billion shares, while small - and mid - cap style thematic ETFs had 215.549 billion shares, a decrease of 5.87 billion shares [27] 4. Sector Fund Flow Tracking - As of last week, among comprehensive ETFs, the top three performers were CSI Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 ETF, ChiNext 50, and ChiNext, with weekly returns of 11.34%, 8.93%, and 7.63% respectively. The bottom three were CSI 1000 ETF, SSE 50 ETF, and CSI 300 ETF, with returns of 0.80%, 1.50%, and 2.72% respectively. Among industry - thematic ETFs, the top three were 5G ETF, AI Intelligence ETF, and Non - ferrous Metals ETF, with returns of 15.44%, 10.69%, and 8.63% respectively. The bottom three were Coal ETF, Financial ETF, and Bank ETF, with returns of - 3.02%, - 1.95%, and - 1.88% respectively. In terms of fund flows, important broad - based indices such as CSI 300 and small - and mid - cap ETFs in the innovation and entrepreneurship sector had fund inflows. In industry - thematic sectors, significant fund inflows were seen in sectors such as brokers, consumption, technology, and non - ferrous metals [32] 5. Commodity ETF - Last week, tracked commodity ETFs showed mixed performance. Gold ETF, Bosera Gold, Soybean Meal ETF, Non - ferrous Metals Futures ETF, and Energy and Chemicals ETF had returns of 1.46%, 1.47%, 0.61%, 1.24%, and - 1.21% respectively. The on - exchange floating shares of tracked commodity ETFs decreased by 1.41 billion shares from the previous week, while the total trading volume increased by 1.869 billion yuan [36] 6. Overseas ETF - Last week, among tracked overseas ETFs, Nasdaq ETF, H - share ETF, and Hang Seng ETF had returns of 1.19%, - 0.85%, and - 0.45% respectively. The on - exchange floating shares of tracked overseas ETFs decreased by 0.13 billion shares from the previous week, and the total trading volume decreased by 0.549 billion yuan [38] 7. Money Market ETF - As of the end of last week, the overnight SHIBOR rate was 1.32%, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous week, and the one - week SHIBOR rate was 1.53%, an increase of 0.03% from the previous week. The seven - day annualized yield of Huabao Tianyi was 1.06%, an increase of 0.04% from the previous week, and that of Yinhua Rili was 1.04%, unchanged from the previous week. The on - exchange floating shares of Huabao Tianyi were 63.846 billion shares, a decrease of 2.602 billion shares from the previous week, and those of Yinhua Rili were 61.757 billion shares, an increase of 1.95 billion shares from the previous week [42]

Market Style Outlook - The current liquidity-driven environment remains the main characteristic of the short-term stock market, with changes in market risk appetite dominating market rhythm. As September approaches, the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is expected to influence market expectations. The current heat of financing funds has reached a relatively high level, and future inflows may slow down slightly. However, with the potential for the Fed to restart rate cuts, the appreciation of the RMB, and the stabilization of domestic PPI, foreign capital may gradually shift towards inflow. Historically, during the pullback phase of a bull market, previously strong styles may experience larger corrections, but the market quickly returns to the previous strong main style after a brief pullback. Therefore, the market style in September is likely to favor large-cap stocks, with growth styles expected to continue to dominate [1][4][12]. Liquidity and Fund Supply-Demand - In September, incremental funds are expected to continue net inflow, with positive feedback from incremental funds likely to persist. The central bank continues to use various liquidity management tools to meet liquidity needs, maintaining a strong willingness to protect liquidity. The overall funding rates are expected to remain low. External liquidity conditions are also favorable, with market expectations for a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which may lead to a weaker dollar index. In August, the net inflow of funds in the stock market expanded significantly, with financing funds becoming the main source of incremental capital. The supply side shows a rebound in the scale of newly issued equity funds, and the market's risk appetite continues to improve [2][3][20]. Market Sentiment and Fund Preference - In August, market risk appetite further rebounded, with the overall A-share risk premium falling below the historical average. Major indices broke through previous resistance levels, showing an accelerated upward trend. The technology style performed well, with the ChiNext 50 and the Growth Enterprise Market leading the gains. The performance of sectors related to communication electronics and AI computing was particularly strong, with notable performances in computer, power equipment, and machinery sectors [3][31][41]. Major Asset Performance Review - The A-share market led global markets in August, with major indices breaking previous loss resistance levels and showing an accelerated upward trend. The market's upward slope has slowed down towards the end of August, with a shift in style from small-cap to large-cap stocks. The ChiNext 50 and small-cap growth indices led the gains, while the value and dividend styles performed relatively weakly [31][36][37].

Market Overview - The market experienced a sudden drop, with the index falling from a gain of 0.48% to a closing loss of 1.76% without much resistance [1] - The current market sentiment reflects a transition from a bullish phase to a bearish one, as investors are now more cautious and reactive to news [3][4] Investment Strategies - The concept of "bull market sharp declines" is explained, indicating that during bullish phases, high investor sentiment leads to quick sell-offs at the slightest negative news [4] - Historical patterns suggest that sharp declines in bull markets do not typically signal the end of the market; rather, adjustments often lead to subsequent upward movements [7] - A grid trading strategy has been implemented, allowing for systematic buying and selling to manage risks and capitalize on market movements [7][15] Fund Management - Recent fund management actions include limiting purchases in high-performing funds, indicating a belief that valuations have become too high [6][5] - The trend-following strategy has shown a cumulative return of 68.69% since September 24, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which returned 36.52% [10] Sector Performance - The technology and innovation sectors, particularly semiconductor-related funds, have seen significant price increases, prompting fund managers to impose purchase limits [4] - The communication equipment and robotics indices have been added to the trend monitoring system, indicating ongoing interest in these sectors [13][18] New Investment Opportunities - A new convertible bond, Shenglan Convertible Bond 02, is available for subscription, with a focus on electronic connectors and components for the new energy vehicle sector [20] - The current stock-bond yield spread stands at 5.43%, indicating a relatively favorable environment for equity investments compared to historical averages [21]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant surge in the "Chuang" series indices, with the ChiNext 50, ChiNext Large Cap, and ChiNext Index all rising over 3%, and the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Theme Index leading with a 5.6% increase, indicating strong market recognition for innovative growth companies in the ChiNext market [1] - The ChiNext Composite Index, which covers all stocks in the ChiNext market, has shown a cumulative increase of 216% since its launch in August 2010, with an annualized return of 8%, demonstrating substantial long-term profitability [1] - Recent revisions to the ChiNext Composite Index's compilation scheme introduced mechanisms for monthly removal of risk-warning stocks and ESG negative screening, enhancing the quality of sample stocks and the investability of the index, which now includes 1,340 sample stocks covering 97% of ChiNext listed companies and 99% of total market capitalization [1] Group 2 - The core positioning of the ChiNext Composite Index is to serve innovative growth companies, with sample stocks required to align with the trends of "innovation, creation, and creativity," or to integrate traditional industries with new technologies and business models [2] - The index has a high concentration in strategic emerging industries, with 79% of its weight in sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, innovative pharmaceuticals, medical devices, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries, reflecting its focus on innovation-driven competitiveness [2] - Sample stocks within the ChiNext Composite Index are projected to exhibit strong growth potential, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% in revenue and 8% in net profit over the next five years, and a forecasted revenue growth of 17% and net profit growth of 64% by 2025 [2] Group 3 - The ChiNext Composite Index features a significant proportion of high-growth potential small and medium-sized enterprises, with 78% of sample stocks having a market capitalization of 10 billion yuan (approximately 1.4 billion USD) or less, indicating substantial investment potential [3] - The recent strong performance of the "Chuang" series indices reflects the market's heightened focus on technological innovation and emerging industries, positioning the ChiNext Composite Index and its associated ETF products as convenient tools for investors to participate in China's innovative economic development [3] - The ChiNext Composite Index, with its high elasticity, growth characteristics, and relatively reasonable valuation levels, is becoming an important choice for investors looking to allocate equity assets, with expectations for continued long-term value creation as sample stock quality and profitability improve [3]

Group 1 - The approval of four innovative bond ETFs by Southern, Fortune, Jiashi, and Invesco marks a significant development in the technology innovation bond market, providing efficient investment channels for investors [1] - The total scale of domestic ETFs surpassed 4.3 trillion yuan as of June 25, setting a historical record, indicating a rapid growth in index-based investment [1] - The Shenzhen series indices have shown strong performance, with the number of products reaching 159 and a total scale of 283.8 billion yuan by the end of June, reflecting a 15% and 12% increase respectively since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - The scale of bond ETFs has been continuously increasing, with the Shenzhen benchmark market credit bond ETF providing a convenient and transparent trading channel for mid-to-high-grade bonds, achieving explosive growth in scale [2] - As of the end of June, the Shenzhen benchmark market credit bond index has issued four ETFs with a scale exceeding 47 billion yuan, with over 20 billion yuan growth in June alone, showcasing its strong capital attraction [2] - The demand for multi-asset allocation is rising, with the launch of the first batch of four multi-asset indices and the deep AAA technology innovation bond index, providing diverse performance benchmarks and investment targets [2] Group 3 - The ChiNext Index, as a core index of the Shenzhen market, has become a popular benchmark with a strategic emerging industry weight of 92%, highlighting strengths in new-generation information technology, new energy vehicles, and biotechnology [3] - The average R&D investment growth for sample companies in the ChiNext Index is projected to be 10% in 2024, indicating strong innovation vitality [3] - By the end of June, there were 49 index products established under the ChiNext Index system, with a total scale exceeding 150 billion yuan, effectively guiding funds towards high-growth and innovative sectors [3] Group 4 - The recent revisions to the ChiNext Index are expected to attract more ESG-preference funds, enhancing its appeal and investment potential [4] - The deep Shenzhen 100 index, which aggregates new quality blue-chip companies, has seen a rise in interest and demand for allocation, with seven new index products established this year [4] - The ChiNext 50 index, known for its role as a market leader during bullish phases, has also seen 13 new index products established this year, reflecting its growth resilience [4] Group 5 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has been actively promoting the development of key industry chain indices and related products, directing funds towards high-quality technology enterprises [5] - The "Chuang Series" indices cover various types, including broad-based, thematic, strategy, and ESG, with a total tracking product scale exceeding 200 billion yuan, providing rich vehicles for investors to capture industry transformation dividends [5] - There has been a significant increase in thematic index product layouts in artificial intelligence, new energy, and biomedicine sectors, with the ChiNext AI index seeing a more than twofold growth in tracking product scale since the beginning of the year [5]

Group 1 - The risk premium percentile of the CSI All Share Index is 71.95%, indicating that the market has returned from a high return area to a normal return area [1][8] - The price-to-book ratio percentile of the CSI All Share Index is 21.54%, suggesting that the market has returned from an undervalued state to a normal but slightly undervalued state [12] - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 800 are still in an undervalued state, warranting close attention [13] Group 2 - The CSI All Share Index's deviation rate is -0.03%, indicating that the overall price level of the market is in a normal range [16] - The ChiNext 50 has returned to a basic normal range after two months of recovery from an oversold state [19] - Over the past six months, the performance of value and growth styles has varied, and the value vs. growth style has yet to be defined, with future trends still to be observed [23] Group 3 - The performance of low valuation styles has generally been superior over the past six months, but high valuation styles have shown strong performance in the past month, suggesting investors should closely monitor the potential transition between high and low valuation styles [27] - Small-cap styles have significantly outperformed over the past six months, indicating a need for future focus on small-cap style targets [29] Group 4 - There has been a certain degree of excess return for convertible bonds relative to the CSI All Share Index over the past six months, suggesting that investors should consider convertible bond varieties from an asset allocation perspective [2][44] - Different types of convertible bonds have shown varying performance over the past six months, with a recommendation to focus on equity-oriented targets [48] Group 5 - The report emphasizes the importance of market style rotation, highlighting the differences in performance between value vs. growth, low vs. high valuation, and large vs. small capitalization stocks [20][21] - The report identifies that the performance of small-cap stocks has been notably superior, suggesting a focus on small-cap style targets moving forward [29] Group 6 - The report discusses industry/theme index rotation, focusing on low valuation rotation and dual momentum rotation strategies [33][34] - A selection of reference targets based on valuation factors or momentum factors is provided for investors to consider [37]

Group 1 - The recent index sample adjustments in Shenzhen Stock Exchange, including the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index, aim to optimize market ecology and promote a virtuous cycle in the capital market [1][3] - The ChiNext Index reflects the direction of new productive forces, with strategic emerging industries accounting for 92% of its weight, particularly in new generation information technology and new energy vehicles, which represent 34% and 24% respectively [2][3] - The average R&D investment for the new sample companies in 2024 is expected to grow by 10%, with 22 companies investing over 1 billion yuan in R&D, indicating a strong focus on innovation and high growth [2][3] Group 2 - The adjustments are expected to guide capital flow towards high-growth sectors, enhance the market's survival of the fittest mechanism, and support the growth of quality enterprises [3][4] - Approximately 60% of the new sample companies in the Shenzhen Component Index have established "quality return dual enhancement" action plans, indicating a commitment to improving investor returns [4] - The introduction of ESG negative screening and individual stock weight limits in the ChiNext Index aims to enhance index stability and better serve long-term capital inflows [4][5] Group 3 - The Shenzhen Component Index has a manufacturing company weight of 73%, with 211 companies projected to achieve both revenue and profit growth in 2024 [3] - The ChiNext Index is positioned as a benchmark for the ChiNext market, focusing on strategic emerging industries such as new energy, biomedicine, and information technology, reflecting China's economic transformation [2][3] - The adjustments are anticipated to attract more ESG-preference funds, providing investors with transparent and robust investment tools in innovative sectors [5]

Group 1 - The recent sample adjustment of indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index aims to optimize market ecology and promote a virtuous cycle in the capital market [1][3] - The adjustment reflects the development direction of new productive forces, highlighting strategic emerging industries with a significant focus on new generation information technology and new energy vehicles, which account for 34% and 24% respectively [2][5] - The average R&D investment for the new sample companies in 2024 is projected to grow by 10%, with 22 companies investing over 1 billion yuan in R&D [2][4] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index has become a core indicator reflecting the transformation and upgrading of the Chinese economy, guiding resources towards high-level technological self-reliance [3][4] - Approximately 60% of the new sample companies in the Shenzhen Component Index have established "quality return dual enhancement" action plans, indicating a commitment to improving investment value [4][5] - The introduction of ESG negative screening and individual stock weight limits in the ChiNext Index aims to enhance index stability and better serve long-term capital inflows [4][5]

Key Points - The report indicates that the risk premium percentile of the CSI All Share Index is 80.41%, suggesting that the market is in a high return zone [1][5] - The report highlights that the price-to-book ratio percentile of the CSI All Share Index is 8.98%, indicating that the market is in a state of severe undervaluation [1][10] - The report notes that the deviation rate of the CSI All Share Index is -4.03%, suggesting that the overall price level of the market is in a normal range [1][13] - The report suggests that the performance of the value style has been significantly superior over the past six months, recommending a focus on value style targets [1][21] - The report also indicates that the performance of the low valuation style has been notably superior over the past six months, advising attention to low valuation style targets [1][24] - The report states that the performance of the small-cap style has been significantly superior over the past six months, recommending a focus on small-cap style targets [1][26] - The report identifies that there has been a certain degree of excess return for convertible bonds relative to the CSI All Share Index over the past six months, suggesting investors pay attention to convertible bond varieties from an asset allocation perspective [1][40]