[Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月08日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 杜永宏 S0630522040001 dyh@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 陶圣禹 S0630523100002 tsy@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20251208 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.美元降息与日元加息预期，资产再平衡下寻找确定性——资产配置周报（2025/12/01- 2025/12/05） ➢ 2.国内晶圆厂产能满载，华为与阿里新品响应端侧AI趋势——半导体行业11月份月报 ➢ 1.国常会：研究进一步做好节能降碳工作 ➢ 2.国务院副总理何立峰与美国财政部长贝森特、贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话 ➢ 3.证监会主席吴清出席中国证券业协会第八次会员大会 ➢ 4.金融监管总局：调整保险公司投资相 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the electronic industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The integrated circuit manufacturing sector leads the electronic industry with a significant increase in the SW electronic industry index by 6.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 1.64% [4]. - The launch of the "Zhuque-3" rocket is expected to drive the development of the satellite communication industry, particularly in low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks [2][7]. - The report highlights the cost-saving potential of reusable rocket technology, which can significantly reduce satellite launch costs, thereby supporting the growth of the domestic low Earth orbit satellite industry [20][29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Zhuque-3 Rocket Development - The "Zhuque-3" rocket is China's first reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket, designed for satellite internet networking and cargo transport to space stations [7][8]. - The rocket features a diameter of 4.5 meters, a total length of 76.6 meters, and a launch mass of approximately 660 tons, with a thrust of 900 tons [8][12]. Section 2: Global Industry Dynamics - Alibaba reported a revenue of approximately 247.8 billion yuan for Q2 of FY2026, marking a 4.8% year-on-year increase, driven by strong growth in AI and cloud services [33]. - SoftBank completed the acquisition of Ampere Computing, enhancing its capabilities in high-performance processors for cloud computing and AI workloads [34]. - Huawei held its 2025 autumn launch event, introducing several new products including the Mate 80 series and Mate X7 foldable phone [35][36]. Section 3: Market Performance - The SW electronic industry index increased by 6.05%, ranking second among 31 sectors, with the communication sector leading at +8.70% [40]. - The top-performing sub-sectors within the electronic industry included integrated circuit manufacturing (+11.54%) and printed circuit boards (+8.87%) [45]. - Notable stock performances included Yunzhu Technology (+60.35%) and Changguang Huaxin (+59.33%) [48].

本周观点 逐步回归平静： 投资逻辑 逐步回归平静。1）12 月美联储降息争议减弱，市场出现显著回暖，流动性和风偏有所回升。Google 发布 Gemini 之后又起 AI 芯片 TPU 逻辑，一方面减弱了对 AI 泡沫的担忧，另外一方面让 AI 产业链逻辑有所延伸，TPU 产业 链相关标的表现强劲。我们对 AI 科技发展的前景持续看好，AI 对生产效率提升的逻辑畅通，短期可能产业过热 或者过度投资，我们关注经营性现金流良好的科技龙头，如美股的 Google、META、微软、阿里、腾讯等，另外持 续关注 AI 应用的落地方向，如物理 AI 等。2）加密货币短期压力难减，区间震荡为主，尽管 12 月美联储降息概 率提升，但是高风险资产对降息信息的讨论过度敏感，加上 DAT、ETF 等中心化持币的负反馈担忧，短期我们谨 慎观察该板块的变化。中长期维度我们对区块链、加密市场保持乐观，对去中心化、跨境支付技术迭代等带来的 变化时刻保持跟踪。3）澳门度假旅游行业我们认为持续配置的价值高，供给和需求的剪刀差逻辑持续兑现，板 块中长期维度受益于降息周期，而未来几个月的景气度在长假期加持和低基数的背景下有望持续上行。4）我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3] Core Insights - Pop Mart's Q3 revenue performance exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 245%-250% for Q3 2025, driven by strong performance in both domestic and overseas markets [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption valuation switching logic and highlights the stable operational performance of sports brands in Q3 [3] - The report suggests that the overseas market is a key growth engine for Pop Mart, with significant growth potential in regions like the Americas and Asia-Pacific [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index increased by 2.62%, ranking 12th among 28 industries, while the textile and apparel index rose by 0.37%, ranking 25th [11] - Key sub-sectors within light industry manufacturing showed positive growth, including packaging and printing (3.27%) and paper (2.65%) [11] Company Performance - Pop Mart's Q3 revenue growth was driven by a 185%-190% increase in domestic revenue and a 365%-370% increase in overseas revenue [5] - The report highlights the strong demand for Pop Mart's IP products, which are currently in a supply-demand imbalance [5][6] Industry Trends - The report notes a shift in consumer behavior towards "emotional consumption," which is expected to drive demand for collectible toys and related products [5] - The report identifies several companies within the sector that are expected to perform well, including Sun Paper, Baiya, and Huali Group, with recommendations to buy or hold based on their growth potential [3][6] Financial Metrics - The report provides financial forecasts for key companies, including earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][6]

Summary of the Conference Call on AI Glasses Industry Industry Overview - The global glasses market is projected to reach a significant scale in 2024, with sales of prescription and sunglasses estimated at 1.4 to 1.5 billion pairs, growing at an annual rate of 10% [1][4] - The smart glasses market is expected to see substantial growth, with Meta Ribbon AI glasses projected to sell 1.4 to 1.5 million units in 2024, and 800,000 units already sold in Q1 2025, indicating a strong market potential [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The introduction of new products in the smart glasses market in 2025 will be driven by major brands like Meta, Alibaba, and ByteDance, as well as companies like Xiaomi exploring the integration of smart glasses with large models [1][5] - The success of Meta Ribbon has encouraged domestic manufacturers to shift their focus from hardware to user experience, prompting a reevaluation of the essential needs for AI glasses [1][8] - Future competition in the smart glasses market will hinge on three critical factors: 1. **Technical Usability**: AI experience, hardware performance, and privacy security [9] 2. **Price Accessibility**: The price point of Meta Ribbon at $299 (approximately 1,500 RMB) is seen as a crucial threshold for market penetration [9] 3. **Scenario Necessity**: Identifying high-frequency essential applications such as real-time translation and first-person perspective recording is vital for product relevance [9] Product Launches and Market Dynamics - The smart glasses market is highly active in 2025, with new products being launched approximately every eight days [6] - Meta plans to release three new models, including a ski sports model priced between $499 and $599, a high-end AR glasses model priced over $1,000, and an industrial application model priced above $10,000 [7] - Domestic brands are also launching multiple new products, with notable releases from companies like 雷鸟 (Thunderbird) and 小米 (Xiaomi), focusing on both functionality and pricing strategies to attract consumers [5][7] Competitive Landscape - Different players in the smart glasses industry have distinct advantages: - **Internet Giants**: Companies like Baidu, ByteDance, and Alibaba leverage AI model development and content ecosystems, positioning smart glasses as software service entry points [10] - **Mobile Manufacturers**: Companies like Xiaomi, Huawei, and Samsung utilize their existing supply chains and user bases to optimize production and reduce costs [10] - **AR Technology Firms**: Companies like Lenovo's Xreal and Lucid focus on optical display technology, emphasizing their technical expertise in the field [12] Future Trends - The period from 2025 to 2026 is expected to be a brand positioning battle, with companies aiming to capture consumer attention [14] - Long-term survival in the market will favor brands that can identify killer applications and meet real-world usage needs [15] - The industry anticipates a shift towards more natural human-computer interaction, lighter designs, improved battery life, and integration into personal ecosystems [16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - Major companies are launching AI+AR glasses, with Alibaba's "Quark AI Glasses" integrating deeply with Alibaba and Alipay ecosystems. The glasses are expected to enhance interaction capabilities through AI and AR technologies [3][4] - The Shanghai government has issued a new plan to support innovation in AI glasses, focusing on lightweight, low power consumption, high resolution, and large field of view technologies [4] - Global shipments of AI glasses are projected to grow rapidly, with significant contributions from major players like Meta, Xiaomi, and Samsung entering the market by 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the increasing release of AI glasses by major manufacturers, indicating a trend towards enhanced interactive capabilities through AI and AR integration [3][4] Market Potential - According to Wellsenn XR, global AI glasses sales are expected to reach 2.34 million units in 2024 and 5.5 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 135% [4] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including GoerTek, Hengxuan Technology, Crystal Optoelectronics, Lante Optics, and Lens Technology, among others [4][5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [56]. Core Insights - The WAIC conference highlighted key trends in technology innovation, emphasizing the acceleration of intelligent agent applications by companies like Tencent and JD.com, the rapid development of open-source ecosystems supporting AI, and the focus on world models and embodied intelligence [5][4]. - The report recommends companies with strong technological capabilities and broad application scenarios, including Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, Li Auto, and Xpeng, as they are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for large model applications [5][4]. Summary by Sections AI Development and Applications - Tencent has launched over 10 intelligent agents across various verticals, while JD.com has open-sourced its JoyAgent intelligent agent [5][4]. - Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen has surpassed 400 million downloads, with over 140,000 derivative models created [5][4]. - The report notes that Tencent's mixed 3D world model 1.0 significantly simplifies the 3D scene construction process, enhancing efficiency in game development and digital content creation [9][4]. Autonomous Driving - The report identifies a dual inflection point in the autonomous driving sector, with improved regulatory environments and the introduction of Tesla's advanced Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology in China expected to boost competition [4][5]. - The penetration rate of L2+ autonomous driving vehicles in China is estimated to be around 30-35%, with projections indicating it could exceed 50% by 2026 [4][5]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with robust technological foundations and diverse application scenarios, specifically highlighting Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou, Baidu, Horizon Robotics, Li Auto, and Xpeng [5][4]. - The anticipated growth in cloud business driven by the increasing demand for large model applications is expected to support the stock performance of these companies [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the media sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [9]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong supply of AI applications and the ongoing policy support for AI commercialization, particularly highlighted by the WAIC 2025 event, which showcased over 3,000 cutting-edge technologies and signed contracts worth 45 billion yuan [3][4]. - The global generative AI market is projected to reach $208.8 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.3% from 2024 to 2032, indicating significant growth potential in the media sector [5][6]. - The report identifies various AI application areas, including digital marketing, content creation, education, and e-commerce, suggesting that the media industry is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [4][7]. Summary by Sections Policy Support - The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission has introduced measures to expand AI applications, including issuing 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers and 300 million yuan for large model applications, aiming to transition AI from a technical model to commercial applications [3]. AI Application Landscape - The report discusses the evolution of AI applications from hardware to content, highlighting the potential for monetization through various models such as subscription and usage-based fees [4]. - It notes that the demand for AI content is strong, with platforms like Bilibili seeing a 100% year-on-year increase in daily AI content sales duration [6]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Wanda Film, Shanghai Film, and Mango Super Media, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings growth [9]. - The report also mentions companies exploring AI applications in education, such as Rongxin Culture and Tianzhou Culture, which are integrating AI into their products to enhance educational outcomes [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [41]. Core Insights - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2025) opened on July 26, focusing on AI applications, including embodied intelligence, intelligent agents, and AI glasses, which received significant attention [11][16]. - Unitree Technology launched its third humanoid robot, Unitree R1, which features 26 joints and is priced starting at 39,900 yuan, aimed at providing a development platform for AI developers and educational scenarios [17][20]. - The Q2 2025 fund holding report for the computer industry shows a slight increase in the fund holding ratio to 2.46%, with significant changes in the top ten heavy stocks compared to Q1 2025 [21]. Summary by Sections Company Dynamics - Nanjing Information plans to sign a three-year framework contract with its controlling shareholder for a total integrated procurement project, with an estimated total amount of 58.27 million yuan [3]. - New Beiyang's subsidiary won a bid for a cash machine procurement project for China Construction Bank, covering the period from 2025 to 2028 [3]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the AI application sector include iFlytek, Kingsoft Office, Hehe Information, Dingjie Smart, and Hengsheng Electronics [4]. - Companies in the humanoid robot supply chain to consider include Tuolisi, Hongsoft Technology, Zhongke Chuangda, Softcom Power, and Suochen Technology [4]. Industry News - The AI server market is projected to see a decrease in the share of purchased Nvidia/AMD chips from approximately 63% in 2024 to about 42% by 2025, with domestic chips expected to grow to 40% [25]. - The AI industry in China has surpassed 700 billion yuan, indicating a significant expansion in the digital economy [27][28].

Group 1 - The market continued to strengthen during the week of July 21-25, with the overall A-share index rising by 2.21%. The leading indices included the Sci-Tech 50, micro-cap stocks, and the CSI 500, while the SSE 50 lagged behind. The cyclical sector led the gains, while financials and real estate saw lower increases. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, construction materials, coal, and steel were the top gainers, while utilities, communications, and banking lagged [2][10]. - The stock-bond yield spread decreased to 1.0%, which is below the +1 standard deviation mark. The valuation dispersion coefficient increased by 2.3% compared to the previous period, indicating potential market peaks in the coming month [3][21]. - Market sentiment improved, with the sentiment index rising by 4.5% to 81.5, reflecting a recovery in overall A-share sentiment. The industry rotation intensity remained stable, with the micro-cap index outperforming the market [3][23]. Group 2 - The construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, referred to as the "Yaxi Project," commenced, which is expected to significantly boost related industries and local economies. This project has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [10][19]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port's closure date was confirmed for December 18, 2025, marking a new phase in its development and positively impacting cross-border trade, investment, and tourism [10][17]. - The AI industry chain continues to be a focal point, with significant developments in AI applications and semiconductor sectors, indicating a favorable trend for the entire AI industry chain [4][14]. Group 3 - The recent release of game licenses in July maintained a high level, with 134 licenses issued, including 127 domestic and 7 imported games. This is expected to enhance the quality of game offerings and suggests investment opportunities in companies with strong content reserves [4][45]. - The military sector is anticipated to experience a revaluation due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of the India-Pakistan and Israel-Palestine conflicts. The upcoming commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the victory in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression is expected to showcase military strength and further support the military industry [5][49]. - The recent issuance of smart connected vehicle operation licenses in Shanghai is expected to promote the large-scale commercialization of Robotaxi services, presenting investment opportunities in this emerging sector [4][46].