（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 家电ETF（159996）跟踪的是家用电器指数（930697），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及家用电器制造、 销售及相关服务业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映家用电器相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 1月16日，家电ETF（159996）涨超1%，中国大家电市场已进入成熟期。 银河证券指出，全球家电市场规模广阔，各品类稳健增长。中国大家电市场已进入成熟期，以更新需求 为主。2024年9月以来，家电行业充分受益于国补；2026年国补政策持续，但力度有所减弱。在海外大 型消费电器市场，中国企业海外品牌份额稳步提升。中国品牌在数字经济升级趋势下，全球竞争优势不 再局限于成本优势，已转换为全面的产业链优势、产品优势。 ...

2025年A股市场以强劲上涨收官，主要指数全线飘红。创业板指全年累计上涨49.57%，领跑市场；上证 指数上涨18.41%，创下近六年来的最大年度涨幅。A股全年"结构性牛市"特征显著，以人工智能为代表 的硬科技行情贯穿始终，驱动电子、通信等行业表现突出。伴随着市场回暖，2025年公募基金行业总规 模历史性突破37万亿元大关，标志着资产管理行业迈上新台阶。 在此背景下，2025年富国基金权益、固收、量化产品业绩表现亮眼。银河证券数据显示，截至2025年12 月31日，富国基金旗下共有62只产品（不同统计区间上榜产品合并统计）跻身银河证券业绩排名前10% 榜单，4只产品排名同类第一，20只产品位列同类前三。具体来看，权益类产品精准把握产业脉搏，32 只产品排名前10%，并打造了5只翻倍基；固收业务构筑稳健"理财新选择"，16只产品位列前10%；量 化指数则把握工具化机遇，14只产品排名前10%。 主动权益：超30只产品排名领先 前瞻把握结构性机会 在A股结构性行情导致业绩分化加剧的背景下，主动管理能力已成为公募基金创造超额收益的关键。国 泰海通证券数据显示，富国基金近三年权益类产品主动管理收益率在13家大型公募基 ...

市场进入上涨趋势 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Author] | 分析师 叶尔乐 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110059 | | 邮箱： yeerle@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 陆豪 | | 执业证书： S0590523070001 | | 邮箱： luhao@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 关舒丹 | | 执业证书： S0590525110060 | | 邮箱： guanshudan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 祝子涵 | | 执业证书： S0590525110061 | | 邮箱： zhuzihan@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 裴钰琪 | | 执业证书： S0590125110081 | | 邮箱： peiyuqi@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 陆诵韬 | | 执业证书： S0590124060037 | | 邮箱： lust@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 量化周报 择时观点：市场进入上 ...

12月19日，A股三大指数午后高位震荡。截至收盘，沪指涨0.36%，深成指涨0.66%，创业板指涨 0.49%。沪深两市成交额1.73万亿，较上一个交易日放量704亿。市场逾4400股上涨。港股市场，恒生指 数收涨0.75%，恒生科技指数涨1.12%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 2 | 3890.45c | 14.08 | 0.36% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | mr. Vin | 13140.21 c | 86.24 | 0.66% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | Nom 3122.24c | 15.17 | 049% | 资金流向，主力资金全天净流入通用设备、汽车、商贸零售等板块，净流出半导体、航天航空、电子等 板块。盘面上，大消费爆发，零售、免税店方向领涨；海南自贸区、核聚变、稀土永磁、两岸融合、智 能驾驶概念股活跃。算力硬件产业链调整，CPO、存储区方向跌幅靠前。 美日数据及政策动向主导市场情绪 12月18日，在政府结束停摆后 ...

华创证券表示，展望2026年，家电板块兼具价值和成长属性，主要体现：1）价值属性：2025年基金持 仓家电比例下降，估值有所回落，家电龙头企业分红意愿强，股息率高，具备高配置属性；2）成长属 性：2026年国补退坡短期对内销或有所冲击，但海外家电销售保持高景气，家电企业积极开拓多元业 务，都将支撑家电企业增长。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 根据Wind数据，家电ETF（159996）今日盘中净流入2000万份，资金布局家电资产。 ...

Market Outlook - December is expected to start strong, with a market trend of initial gains followed by potential declines in a volatile environment[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index's 5-day moving average has formed a death cross with the 30-day moving average, indicating short-term resistance[6] Investment Strategy - Focus on mid-cap blue chips, particularly in the consumer sector, which is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged downturn[6] - Key sectors to watch include AI-driven new materials and traditional commodities like live pigs and rubber, which are experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics[6] Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected consumer recovery, unclear demand scenarios, and uncertainties surrounding the sustainability of trade-in subsidy policies[5] ETF Recommendations - Suggested ETFs include cash flow ETFs and sector-specific ETFs for consumer goods, beverages, and home appliances, which are expected to perform well in the current market[6]

Strategy Logic - The report introduces the "Shouzheng Chuq" investment sentiment indicator, which aims to identify potential investment opportunities in the A-share market by analyzing industry rotation phenomena [1][5] - The strategy combines three main dimensions: investment sentiment, volume-price indicators, and analyst expectations, resulting in 12 detailed industry rotation indicators [1][5] - The investment sentiment indicator utilizes market data and alternative data to create positive and negative screening factors, capturing market momentum and sentiment [5][6] Strategy Performance - In November, the overall industry benchmark return was -0.95%, while the "Shouzheng Chuq" sentiment indicator long portfolio returned -1.24% [2][6] - The combined "Expectation Resonance" model long portfolio achieved a return of 0.98%, resulting in an excess return of 1.93% [2][6] - Year-to-date, the "Shouzheng Chuq" sentiment indicator long portfolio has shown robust performance with a return of 30.29% and an excess return of 8.05% [2][12] Latest Recommendations - The top recommended industries based on the latest data include non-bank financials, automotive, food and beverage, home appliances, transportation, and banking according to the "Shouzheng Chuq" model [3][21] - The "Expectation Resonance" model ranks non-bank financials, banking, home appliances, transportation, automotive, and electronics as the leading industries [3][21] - Detailed scores for recommended industries and corresponding ETFs are provided, indicating strong performance in non-bank financials and home appliances [21][22]

Market Strategy - The recent market rebound aligns with previous predictions of a "layout window emerging," but the market has not shown a simultaneous increase in volume and price, indicating that the rebound does not change the overall oscillating pattern [6] - The current tension in Sino-Japanese relations is a major factor restraining risk appetite, suggesting a cautious approach to technology growth sectors, which are more sensitive to risk preferences [6] - The real estate market has been in a downward trend since the policy release last September, with recent price increases in the sector driven by changes in policy expectations and capital inflows, but further confirmation of policy effectiveness is needed to sustain this momentum [6] Sector Strategy - In the technology sector, a cautious approach is recommended due to the difficulty in further upward adjustments in expectations amid declining risk appetite [6] - The cyclical consumer manufacturing sector, characterized by medium risk, is expected to gain market consensus as conditions evolve [6] - The real estate sector requires significant fiscal policy measures, such as mortgage interest subsidies, to boost market confidence and reverse negative expectations [6] Defense Industry - Recent U.S. arms sales to Japan, totaling approximately $82 million, may accelerate China's equipment development in response to increasing uncertainties in the Asia-Pacific region [6] - The geopolitical climate, influenced by Japan's military expansion and U.S. support, is likely to drive growth in China's defense capabilities [6]

Group 1: Macro Timing Strategy - The macro timing strategy has an annualized return of 7.67% as of October 31, 2025, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.45 and a Calmar ratio of 1.67, indicating a maximum drawdown of -4.60% [2][4][5] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 7.01% in CSI 300 ETF, 7.99% in CSI 500 ETF, 55.94% in government bond ETF, 11.63% in soybean meal ETF, 5.02% in non-ferrous ETF, 7.40% in gold ETF, and 5.00% in currency ETF, with no allocation to S&P 500 ETF and corporate bond ETF [7][8] Group 2: Momentum Strategy - The momentum strategy has an annualized return of 18.25% since January 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.88 and a Calmar ratio of 0.64, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -28.72% [9][10] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 27.01% in Huatai-PB CSI Telecom Theme ETF, 24.92% in Fuguo CSI Tourism Theme ETF, 21.52% in Xinhua CSI Cloud Computing 50 ETF, 16.38% in Huatai-PB CSI Smart Car ETF, and 8.17% in Huaxia CSI Artificial Intelligence ETF [13][14] Group 3: Sector Rotation Strategy - The sector rotation strategy has an annualized return of 10.00% since 2020, with an excess return of 7.27% relative to CSI 300, and a maximum drawdown of -42.98% [15] - The latest portfolio includes home appliance ETF, green power ETF, steel ETF, new energy vehicle ETF, financial ETF, and agricultural ETF, while excluding non-ferrous metals ETF and transportation ETF [18][19] Group 4: Copula-Based Second-Order Stochastic Dominance Strategy - The Copula-based second-order stochastic dominance strategy has an annualized return of 14.41% since January 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.68 and a maximum drawdown of -42.62% [20][24] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 5.00% in Huaxia CSI Petrochemical Industry ETF, 85.00% in Fuguo CSI 800 Bank ETF, 5.00% in Fuguo CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF, and 5.00% in Bosera CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF [23][25] Group 5: Quantile Random Forest Technology ETF Allocation Strategy - The quantile random forest technology ETF allocation strategy has an annualized return of 13.54% since 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.76 and a maximum drawdown of -29.89% [26] - The latest portfolio allocation consists of 95.63% in technology ETFs, including 4.78% in Jiahua National Communication ETF, 4.78% in Tianhong CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF, 4.78% in Huabao CSI Military Industry ETF, 76.51% in Ping An CSI Consumer Electronics Theme ETF, and 4.78% in Fuguo CSI Technology 50 Strategy ETF [29][30]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices showed mixed results, with the coal ETF leading gains, up by 2.97%, while several home appliance ETFs declined [1] - As of October 15, 127 equity funds have raised over 1 billion yuan this year, with more than 70% being index funds, indicating a strong preference for index-based investments [1] Gold Market Update - Gold prices reached a new high of 4200 USD per ounce on October 15, with 43% of surveyed investors considering "going long on gold" as the most crowded trade, surpassing the 39% for "going long on the seven major US stocks" [2] - The surge in gold prices has led to a significant influx of capital into gold ETFs, exceeding 200 billion yuan this year, prompting some fund companies to impose large purchase limits on related products [2] Market Overview - On October 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1% to 3916.23 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 13086.41 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.38% to 3037.44 points [3] - The Nikkei 225, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 ranked high in performance, with respective daily changes of 1.27%, 0.38%, and 0.26% [3] Sector Performance - The coal, banking, and food & beverage sectors performed well today, with daily gains of 2.35%, 1.35%, and 0.97% respectively, while steel, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials lagged behind [5] - Over the past five trading days, coal, banking, and food & beverage sectors have shown strong performance with gains of 6.34%, 5.72%, and 2.55% respectively [5] ETF Market Performance - The average daily performance of different categories of ETFs was calculated, with commodity ETFs showing the best average gain of 0.54%, while thematic stock index ETFs had the worst average decline of -0.44% [8] - The top-performing ETFs today included the coal ETF (515220.SH) with a gain of 2.97%, followed by the communication equipment ETF (159583.SZ) at 2.84%, and the energy ETF (159930.SZ) at 2.10% [10] ETF Trading Volume - The top three ETFs by trading volume today were the A500 ETF (512050.SH) with 4.879 billion yuan, the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588000.SH) with 4.868 billion yuan, and the ChiNext ETF (159915.SZ) with 4.670 billion yuan [13]