Market Strategy - The recent market rebound aligns with previous predictions of a "layout window emerging," but the market has not shown a simultaneous increase in volume and price, indicating that the rebound does not change the overall oscillating pattern [6] - The current tension in Sino-Japanese relations is a major factor restraining risk appetite, suggesting a cautious approach to technology growth sectors, which are more sensitive to risk preferences [6] - The real estate market has been in a downward trend since the policy release last September, with recent price increases in the sector driven by changes in policy expectations and capital inflows, but further confirmation of policy effectiveness is needed to sustain this momentum [6] Sector Strategy - In the technology sector, a cautious approach is recommended due to the difficulty in further upward adjustments in expectations amid declining risk appetite [6] - The cyclical consumer manufacturing sector, characterized by medium risk, is expected to gain market consensus as conditions evolve [6] - The real estate sector requires significant fiscal policy measures, such as mortgage interest subsidies, to boost market confidence and reverse negative expectations [6] Defense Industry - Recent U.S. arms sales to Japan, totaling approximately $82 million, may accelerate China's equipment development in response to increasing uncertainties in the Asia-Pacific region [6] - The geopolitical climate, influenced by Japan's military expansion and U.S. support, is likely to drive growth in China's defense capabilities [6]

Group 1: Macro Timing Strategy - The macro timing strategy has an annualized return of 7.67% as of October 31, 2025, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.45 and a Calmar ratio of 1.67, indicating a maximum drawdown of -4.60% [2][4][5] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 7.01% in CSI 300 ETF, 7.99% in CSI 500 ETF, 55.94% in government bond ETF, 11.63% in soybean meal ETF, 5.02% in non-ferrous ETF, 7.40% in gold ETF, and 5.00% in currency ETF, with no allocation to S&P 500 ETF and corporate bond ETF [7][8] Group 2: Momentum Strategy - The momentum strategy has an annualized return of 18.25% since January 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.88 and a Calmar ratio of 0.64, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -28.72% [9][10] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 27.01% in Huatai-PB CSI Telecom Theme ETF, 24.92% in Fuguo CSI Tourism Theme ETF, 21.52% in Xinhua CSI Cloud Computing 50 ETF, 16.38% in Huatai-PB CSI Smart Car ETF, and 8.17% in Huaxia CSI Artificial Intelligence ETF [13][14] Group 3: Sector Rotation Strategy - The sector rotation strategy has an annualized return of 10.00% since 2020, with an excess return of 7.27% relative to CSI 300, and a maximum drawdown of -42.98% [15] - The latest portfolio includes home appliance ETF, green power ETF, steel ETF, new energy vehicle ETF, financial ETF, and agricultural ETF, while excluding non-ferrous metals ETF and transportation ETF [18][19] Group 4: Copula-Based Second-Order Stochastic Dominance Strategy - The Copula-based second-order stochastic dominance strategy has an annualized return of 14.41% since January 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.68 and a maximum drawdown of -42.62% [20][24] - The latest portfolio allocation includes 5.00% in Huaxia CSI Petrochemical Industry ETF, 85.00% in Fuguo CSI 800 Bank ETF, 5.00% in Fuguo CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF, and 5.00% in Bosera CSI Oil and Gas Resources ETF [23][25] Group 5: Quantile Random Forest Technology ETF Allocation Strategy - The quantile random forest technology ETF allocation strategy has an annualized return of 13.54% since 2020, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.76 and a maximum drawdown of -29.89% [26] - The latest portfolio allocation consists of 95.63% in technology ETFs, including 4.78% in Jiahua National Communication ETF, 4.78% in Tianhong CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF, 4.78% in Huabao CSI Military Industry ETF, 76.51% in Ping An CSI Consumer Electronics Theme ETF, and 4.78% in Fuguo CSI Technology 50 Strategy ETF [29][30]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices showed mixed results, with the coal ETF leading gains, up by 2.97%, while several home appliance ETFs declined [1] - As of October 15, 127 equity funds have raised over 1 billion yuan this year, with more than 70% being index funds, indicating a strong preference for index-based investments [1] Gold Market Update - Gold prices reached a new high of 4200 USD per ounce on October 15, with 43% of surveyed investors considering "going long on gold" as the most crowded trade, surpassing the 39% for "going long on the seven major US stocks" [2] - The surge in gold prices has led to a significant influx of capital into gold ETFs, exceeding 200 billion yuan this year, prompting some fund companies to impose large purchase limits on related products [2] Market Overview - On October 16, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1% to 3916.23 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25% to 13086.41 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.38% to 3037.44 points [3] - The Nikkei 225, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 ranked high in performance, with respective daily changes of 1.27%, 0.38%, and 0.26% [3] Sector Performance - The coal, banking, and food & beverage sectors performed well today, with daily gains of 2.35%, 1.35%, and 0.97% respectively, while steel, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials lagged behind [5] - Over the past five trading days, coal, banking, and food & beverage sectors have shown strong performance with gains of 6.34%, 5.72%, and 2.55% respectively [5] ETF Market Performance - The average daily performance of different categories of ETFs was calculated, with commodity ETFs showing the best average gain of 0.54%, while thematic stock index ETFs had the worst average decline of -0.44% [8] - The top-performing ETFs today included the coal ETF (515220.SH) with a gain of 2.97%, followed by the communication equipment ETF (159583.SZ) at 2.84%, and the energy ETF (159930.SZ) at 2.10% [10] ETF Trading Volume - The top three ETFs by trading volume today were the A500 ETF (512050.SH) with 4.879 billion yuan, the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588000.SH) with 4.868 billion yuan, and the ChiNext ETF (159915.SZ) with 4.670 billion yuan [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy is based on the research reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) to construct a strategy portfolio of industry and theme ETFs [2] - In the week of 20250811, the model recommends allocating sectors such as joint - stock banks, games, and semiconductors. In the next week, the strategy will newly hold products like Game ETF, Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF, and Satellite ETF, and continue to hold products like Bank ETF, Financial Real Estate ETF, and Gold Stock ETF [2] - As of last weekend, some ETFs and the trading timing signals of the underlying indexes gave daily or weekly risk warnings [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Performance Tracking - During the period from 20250804 to 20250808, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about 2.62%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 1.41% [3] - From October 14, 2024, to the present, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 7.08%, and the cumulative excess relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.79% [3] Future 1 - Week Recommended ETFs (20250811 - 20250815) | Fund Code | ETF Name | Holding Status | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Heavy - Positioned Shenwan II Industry and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 512800 | Bank ETF | Continue to hold | 151.38 | Joint - stock banks (44.73%) | 1 | - 1 | | 159869 | Game ETF | Transfer in | 73.17 | Games (81.29%) | 1 | 1 | | 588780 | Science and Technology Innovation Chip Design ETF | Transfer in | 2.77 | Semiconductors (95.73%) | 1 | 1 | | 159940 | Financial Real Estate ETF | Continue to hold | 7.99 | Securities (29.12%) | 1 | - 1 | | 517520 | Gold Stock ETF | Continue to hold | 46.34 | Precious metals (41.51%) | 1 | 1 | | 510000 | Central Enterprise ETF | Continue to hold | 1.21 | State - owned large - scale banks (18.11%) | 1 | 1 | | 512690 | Wine ETF | Continue to hold | 152.39 | Baijiu (85.37%) | - 1 | - 1 | | 159206 | ZETF | Transfer in | 1.33 | Military electronics II (34.22%) | 1 | 1 | | 159786 | VRETF | Transfer in | 1.32 | Optoelectronics (26.64%) | 1 | 1 | | 159652 | Non - ferrous 50 ETF | Transfer in | 5.21 | Industrial metals (49.34%) | 1 | 1 | [9] Near 1 - Week ETF Holdings and Performance (20250804 - 20250808) | Fund Code | Current Holding Status | ETF Name | ETF Market Value (billion yuan) | Near 1 - Week Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 562550 | - | Green Power ETF | 1.21 | 1.50 | | 512800 | Continue to hold | Bank ETF | 151.38 | 1.99 | | 512690 | Continue to hold | Wine ETF | 152.39 | 1.06 | | 159768 | - | Real Estate ETF | 6.13 | 2.14 | | 159940 | Continue to hold | Financial Real Estate ETF | 7.99 | 1.41 | | 515220 | Transfer out | Coal ETF | 80.20 | 3.78 | | 159996 | Transfer out | Home Appliance ETF | 12.72 | 2.55 | | 510060 | Continue to hold | Central Enterprise ETF | 1.21 | 1.42 | | 516550 | Transfer out | Agricultural ETF | 1.87 | 1.76 | | 517520 | Continue to hold | Gold Stock ETF | 46.34 | 8.91 | | - | ETF Portfolio Average Return | - | - | 2.62 | | 510300 | - | CSI 300 ETF | 3819.72 | 1.21 | | - | ETF Portfolio Excess Return | - | - | 1.41 | [10]

展望 2025 年，内销端国补仍将延续，外销随关税预期稳定亦有望迎来估值修复，消费或为全年投资主 线之一，家电ETF（159996）值得关注。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 根据wind数据，家电ETF（159996）实时盘中净流入2000万份，资金积极布局家电资产。 申万宏源表示，地产政策风向大幅反转，而白电板块兼具"低估值、高分红、稳增长"属性，股价安全边 际高和弹性大兼顾。以旧换新政策有望催化，而根据产业在线数据，7-9月内销排产同比 +8%/-19%/-8%，而铜价短期异动引发渠道看涨情绪升温，持续看好白电产业链量价齐升。 ...

Group 1: Artificial Intelligence - The ongoing AI arms race is driving significant demand for computing power, with domestic and international cloud vendors increasing capital expenditures [1][3] - The global market for optical modules is expected to grow at a CAGR of 22% from 2024 to 2029, potentially exceeding $37 billion by 2029 [1] - Chinese optical module companies hold over 60% of the global market share, with the latest 2024 global optical module TOP10 list showing Chinese firms occupying 7 positions [3] Group 2: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The number and value of License out agreements for Chinese innovative drugs are accelerating, with total License out amounts nearing $66 billion in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 [3] - The domestic pharmaceutical industry is entering a phase of innovation realization after over a decade of substantial capital investment, which is expected to enhance the performance of innovative drug companies [3][6] - Policy improvements and expanded payment mechanisms are likely to support the profitability of leading biopharmaceutical companies, potentially leading to a "Davis Double" effect in the industry [6] Group 3: Securities - The A-share market is experiencing active trading, with an average daily turnover of nearly 1.4 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 62% year-on-year increase [7] - The recovery of brokerage firms' brokerage and proprietary business performance is driving better-than-expected mid-year forecasts [7] - The equity market is supported by a stable and active capital market, with ongoing high trading activity and a recovering Hong Kong IPO market [7] Group 4: Consumer Sector - The home appliance sector is benefiting from national subsidies, with domestic sales showing strong growth, reporting a 30.2% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to May 2025 [8] - Export demand is expected to normalize as previously suppressed overseas shipments are released, aided by the upcoming traditional sales peak season [8] Group 5: Gaming Industry - The gaming sector is experiencing a recovery, with performance boosted by new game launches, policy support, and accelerated overseas expansion [9] - The actual sales revenue of China's gaming market reached 141.1 billion yuan in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [9] - Emerging consumption trends, particularly in IP derivatives, are gaining market attention, with products like "LABUBU" from Pop Mart receiving widespread popularity overseas [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of new safety standards for home appliances and the promotion of a replacement subsidy program, which aims to boost the home appliance industry [1] - On July 2, 2025, the relevant national departments released a series of standards titled "Safety Usage Lifespan of Household Appliances," covering 11 categories of appliances including refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [1] - The "Action Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Equipment Updates and Consumer Goods Replacement" continues to be implemented, adding four new products, including microwave ovens and water purifiers, to the subsidy scope [1] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Securities, the three major white goods (air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines) maintained a high sales growth rate in June, with particularly strong performance in the first week [1] - Online sales showed significant year-on-year fluctuations, with air conditioners reaching 80.7%, refrigerators at 5.6%, and washing machines at 42.7% during the week of June 2-8; offline sales were more stable, with air conditioners at 91.3%, refrigerators at 32.0%, and washing machines at 36.3% [1] - Despite a slowdown in growth in the second and third weeks, the home appliance industry remains active and is considered one of the bright spots in the economy, supported by policy incentives [1] Group 3 - The home appliance ETF tracks the home appliance index, which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting listed companies involved in the manufacturing and related businesses of home appliances from the A-share market [1] - This index comprehensively reflects the overall performance of the home appliance industry in the A-share market, demonstrating significant industry representation and market influence [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the domestic stock indices experienced mixed performance, with the CSI 300, SSE 50, and SSE Composite Index showing declines of -1.08%, -1.22%, and -0.03% respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 saw increases of 0.32% and 0.62% respectively [2][9] - The trading volume of comprehensive ETFs increased to 50.728 billion yuan, up by 10.269 billion yuan from the previous week, with large-cap style ETFs accounting for 27.055 billion yuan and small-cap style ETFs for 23.914 billion yuan [2][29] - The average weekly performance of 32 thematic ETFs was -0.32%, with large-cap style ETFs averaging -0.45% and small-cap style ETFs averaging -0.22% [3][30] Group 2 - The report highlights that the top three performing comprehensive ETFs were the 1000ETF, 500ETF, and 800ETF, with returns of 0.87%, 0.57%, and -0.50% respectively, while the bottom three were the ChiNext 50, Deep 100ETF, and ChiNext, with returns of -1.89%, -1.56%, and -1.10% [4][35] - In the thematic ETF category, the leading performers were in the biopharmaceutical and military sectors, with returns of 2.11%, 1.96%, and 1.85%, while the new energy vehicle and non-ferrous ETFs lagged with returns of -4.70%, -4.68%, and -2.34% [4][35] - The report notes that there was a net outflow of funds from major index ETFs in the comprehensive category, while the ChiNext-related ETFs saw inflows, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4][35] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the trading activity of domestic stock ETFs, indicating that the trading hotspots were concentrated in the ChiNext 50, 1000ETF, and various sector ETFs such as banking and military [27][28] - The report also tracks the changes in market capitalization and trading volumes of comprehensive and thematic ETFs, noting that the total trading volume for thematic ETFs was 31.48 billion yuan, down by 4.192 billion yuan from the previous week [30][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the trading activity and fund flows in ETFs as indicators of market sentiment and potential investment opportunities [26][29] Group 4 - The report indicates that the bond market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bonds experiencing a slight increase of 0.26%, while the main stock index futures had varied results [16][19] - In the commodity market, the report notes that the CRB poultry and edible oil indices saw slight increases, while the overall commodity market experienced mixed results [20][24] - The report also highlights the performance of overseas ETFs, with the NASDAQ ETF showing a gain of 1.74%, while the H-share and Hang Seng ETFs experienced declines [41][41]

Group 1: Fund Market Overview - In June, the public fund issuance market experienced a "small peak" with 89 funds entering the sale period, including 41 funds launched on the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival [1] - Public REITs have seen a significant market trend this year, with the CSI REITs total return index rising by 12.62% year-to-date, although it has recently shown signs of high volatility [2] - In May, public fund research focused on hard technology and globalization, with 156 public funds participating in A-share listed company research, covering 629 stocks and totaling 4,791 research instances [3] Group 2: Notable Fund Manager Insights - Song Jialing, head of the consumer research team at Hengyue Fund, indicated that new targets in the emerging consumer sector are expected to continue to emerge, driven by cultural trends from demographic changes [4] - Despite some stocks in the emerging consumer sector experiencing significant short-term gains, the price movements are closely tied to performance data, with many companies planning new products for the second half of the year [4] Group 3: ETF Market Performance - The market showed a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.43%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.16%, with a total trading volume of 1.14 trillion yuan [3] - Gold-related ETFs performed strongly, with the highest increase reaching 3.89%, while the automotive parts ETF led the decline with a drop of 1.94% [4][5] Group 4: ETF Thematic Opportunities - Human-shaped robots and smart vehicles share many commonalities in hardware and software, with automotive companies increasingly entering the robotics sector, suggesting potential growth in automotive parts related ETFs [6] Group 5: Upcoming Fund Launches - The upcoming fund "Invesco Great Wall Growth Mixed Fund" is a mixed equity fund managed by Nong Bingli, with a performance benchmark based on a combination of indices [7] - Another fund, "招商价值严选混合" (招商 Value Select Mixed Fund), is also set to launch, managed by Zhu Hongyu, with a performance benchmark linked to the CSI 300 Index and the Hang Seng Composite Index [9]

Group 1 - The ETF market opened with mixed results, with the Low Volatility Dividend ETF (560520) leading gains at 9.99% [1] - The Home Appliance ETF (561120) increased by 3.03%, while the Green Power ETF (561170) rose by 2.90% [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) experienced the largest decline at 3.15%, followed by the ICBC Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159217) down 2.89%, and the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120) falling by 2.86% [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that investors looking to capitalize on market rebounds should consider purchasing index ETFs [1]