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优化供需结构,持续提振投资与消费预期
国家统计局最新公布的数据显示,2025年12月国内CPI同比上涨0.8%,并超过前值的0.7%,CPI环比由 上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.2%,创近三年来阶段性高位。同期,PPI环比上涨0.2%,连续3个月上涨,涨 幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。CPI与PPI环比同时呈现正增长,显示2025年全年价格低位修复已成积极趋 势,并将为2026年价格带入回暖轨道奠定基础。 CPI环比上涨主要受除能源外的工业消费品价格上涨影响,扣除能源的工业消费品价格上涨了0.6%,影 响CPI环比上涨约0.16个百分点。受益于提振消费政策效果持续显现,通信工具、母婴用品、文娱耐用 消费品、家用器具价格均有明显上涨。此外,元旦节前消费需求增加,带动食品价格环比上涨0.3%。 CPI同比上涨0.8%,涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点,回升至2023年3月份以来最高,同比涨幅扩大主要是 食品价格涨幅扩大拉动。鲜菜和鲜果价格涨幅分别扩大至18.2%和4.4%,牛肉、羊肉和水产品价格分别 上涨6.9%、4.4%和1.6%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%,涨幅连续4个月保持在1%以 上,这是一个积极信号。 影响CPI的主要因素是能源 ...
浦东发布两项核心政策方案 50个重点项目同步签约 营商环境提质增效 加速发展硬核产业
Jie Fang Ri Bao· 2026-01-06 01:41
记者 杜晨薇 围绕千亿硬核产业集群的打造,浦东将打造产业集群攻坚团队,让好项目高效落地;提供优质的创 新技术平台,让好技术加速转化;提升企业服务能力,让好企业安心发展。 在市场竞争领域,浦东将开展高水平知识产权保护、数智化风险防范、营造清朗网络三大专项行 动,为公平有序的市场环境保驾护航。 在产业生态领域,浦东将推出青年创业全链护航、产业空间载体服务保障、中小企业融资便利服 务、优化产业生态四大专项行动,从人才、空间、融资、创新等维度为产业发展注入强劲动力。 在法治保障领域,浦东将继续加快重点立法步伐,开展上海国际法律服务中心核心承载区建设迭代 升级行动。在社会人文领域,浦东将持续扩大"宜商环境体验官"和"媒体观察员"队伍,支持"一街一 品""一镇一品"建设,打造宜居宜业的幸福家园。 此外,浦东还将推动集成电路、生物医药、智能网联汽车、软件信息服务业集群迈上5000亿元规 模;人工智能、智能终端集群冲刺2000亿元规模;民用航空、船舶海工、具身智能、新型能源集群达成 1000亿元规模。 各产业集群将聚焦核心赛道提质增效,如集成电路聚焦"设计引领、全链布局",生物医药聚焦"源 创首发、走向世界",智能网联汽车聚 ...
扩内需政策措施继续显效
Jing Ji Wang· 2025-12-11 06:56
CPI同比涨幅扩大 国家统计局数据显示,11月份,居民消费持续恢复,居民消费价格指数(CPI)环比略降0.1%,同比上 涨0.7%,扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品 价格传导等因素影响,工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)环比上涨0.1%,同比下降2.2%。 二是新兴产业快速发展,带动相关行业价格同比上涨。随着我国新材料、具身智能等行业的快速发展和 绿色低碳转型的深入推进,相关行业需求增加,外存储设备及部件价格同比上涨13.9%,石墨及碳素制 11月份,CPI同比上涨0.7%,涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点,为2024年3月份以来最高。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟表示,CPI同比涨幅扩大,主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价 格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%,对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百分点。 其中,鲜菜价格由上月下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%,为连续下降9个月后首次转涨。鲜果价格由上月下降 2.0%转为上涨0.7%,牛肉和羊肉价格涨幅均有扩大,猪肉和禽肉类价格降幅均有收窄。能源价格下降 3.4%,降幅比上月扩大1. ...
(经济观察)中国经济稳定增长护航民生基本盘
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-10-20 13:31
Economic Growth and Employment - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, accelerating by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year and the same period last year respectively, providing a solid foundation for employment and income stability [1] - The average urban survey unemployment rate from January to September was 5.2%, with quarterly averages of 5.3%, 5.0%, and 5.2%, showing overall stability in the employment situation [1] - Economic growth serves as a "ballast" and "stabilizer" for the job market, boosting corporate confidence in investment and expansion, thereby creating more job opportunities [1] Policy Support and Employment Measures - China has implemented targeted support measures for key employment groups, including special subsidies, expanded employment channels, and enhanced employment services [2] - The country is actively guiding and supporting the development of industries related to new productive forces, such as high-tech manufacturing, digital economy, and green industries, to create new employment opportunities [2] Resident Income and Consumption - The per capita disposable income of residents reached 32,509 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.1% year-on-year, with a real growth of 5.2% after adjusting for price factors, aligning with economic growth [3] - The income ratio between urban and rural residents decreased from 2.46 to 2.43, indicating a slight improvement in income distribution [3] - The increase in wage income, net operating income, and net transfer income were the main factors supporting the growth in resident income [3] Price Trends and Market Signals - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.6%, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year, with a narrower decline of 2.9% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, reflecting an improvement in domestic market competition and a recovery in prices for certain industries [4]
宏观纵览 | “反内卷”的下一步:盈利改善如何向中下游传导
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 08:32
Core Insights - The recovery of upstream industry prices has been observed, while downstream sectors still require more policy support [2][6] - The "anti-involution" campaign has shown positive results, with expectations for further policy actions to enhance industry health and sustainable development [2][8] Industrial Profit Growth - From January to August, industrial profits for large-scale enterprises turned from a 1.7% decline to a 0.9% increase, marking a significant recovery [3][5] - August saw a notable profit increase of 20.4% compared to July, reversing a previous decline [3][4] - The improvement in industrial profits is attributed to macro policy effectiveness, low base effects, and strong support from the equipment manufacturing sector [3][6] Price Improvement and Its Impact - Price recovery is a key factor in profit growth, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline narrowing to 2.9% in August, the smallest drop since March [4][5] - Specific industries such as coal processing and steel have seen reduced price declines, contributing to the overall PPI improvement [4][6] Downstream Industry Challenges - Despite profit improvements in upstream sectors, downstream industries still face weak demand and operational pressures, indicated by rising inventory levels and extended accounts receivable periods [5][7] - Analysts suggest that targeted policies to stimulate downstream demand, such as expanding consumption incentives, are necessary for broader profit recovery [7][8] Policy Measures and Future Outlook - Continuous policy support is essential for sustaining profit growth, particularly in the context of "anti-involution" measures aimed at reducing excessive competition [7][8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has outlined specific growth plans for various sectors, including steel and automotive, focusing on governance and competition regulation [9][10]
强化政策协同,筑牢“十五五”价格合理回升基石
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 22:49
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the persistent low inflation in China as a significant challenge for the economy, affecting both macroeconomic stability and microeconomic sentiment [1][8][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a positive trend, with the core CPI rising by 0.9% year-on-year in August, marking the highest level since February 2024, indicating potential recovery in prices [1][4][3] - The industrial producer price index (PPI) has also shown signs of improvement, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9% in August, a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [6][8] Group 2 - Experts emphasize the need for a combination of short-term policies and long-term reforms to stabilize prices, suggesting a target CPI growth of 2% as a long-term goal for the 14th Five-Year Plan [11][12] - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a crucial measure for structural adjustment in the economy, aimed at reducing excess capacity and optimizing supply structures [12][10] - The current economic environment is characterized by insufficient demand, which is expected to continue influencing price trends during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [9][8]
前七月经济总体平稳,工业拉动功不可没
Da Zhong Ri Bao· 2025-08-22 01:05
Group 1 - Shandong's economy shows overall stability with key economic indicators performing better than the national average, including a 6.0% increase in industrial technological transformation investment, which is 0.5 percentage points higher than the first half of the year [1] - The transformation efforts in Shandong have led to significant improvements in production efficiency, as exemplified by Shandong Lukang Ceramics Technology Co., which upgraded its facilities to increase annual production capacity to 4 million ceramic heat-resistant pots and enhance market share by 20% [1] - The province has been promoting technological transformation and enterprise transformation for seven consecutive years, focusing on maintaining stability while exploring new growth drivers amid increasing external pressures and internal challenges [1] Group 2 - Traditional industries such as chemicals, steel, and light textiles remain crucial pillars of Shandong's industrial sector, with 35 out of 41 industrial categories showing growth, resulting in an 85.4% growth rate across the sector [2] - Shandong is enhancing its industrial monitoring and support systems, utilizing leading indicators like prices and manufacturing PMI to address operational challenges promptly [2] - The province is also focusing on emerging industries such as laser equipment, new energy batteries, and artificial intelligence, integrating them into key industrial chains with increased policy support [2] Group 3 - The advancement of high-end manufacturing is accelerating, with Shandong focusing on innovation to meet market demands, resulting in a 10.5% increase in high-tech manufacturing value added, surpassing the overall industrial growth rate by 2.7 percentage points [3] - Efforts include enhancing the innovation ecosystem and promoting the sharing of core capabilities between leading enterprises and digital service providers [3] - The province is addressing bottlenecks in the transformation of key industries through initiatives like the "reveal and take charge" action and establishing pilot and application verification platforms [3] Group 4 - New demand and scenarios are being stimulated, with Shandong developing a comprehensive drone industry chain and exploring applications in logistics, emergency medical services, and urban management [4] - The smart connected vehicle industry is also expanding, integrating intelligent vehicles with smart infrastructure to create viable commercial models in various sectors [4] - In the first seven months, new energy vehicle manufacturing, aerospace equipment manufacturing, and computer manufacturing saw electricity consumption growth rates of 40.6%, 32.2%, and 32.1% respectively, indicating robust performance in these new growth areas [4]
反内卷要打“持久战”新能源汽车光伏仍是重点
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 23:15
国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉表示,综合整治"内卷式"竞争,规范地方政府和企 业行为,这一部署着重通过系统施策,针对在公平竞争过程中出现的违背市场规律、产业发展规律的不 当做法进行集中治理,以便更好发挥市场配置资源的作用,营造良好的产业发展生态环境,具有牵一发 而动全身的作用。 建立健全反内卷长效机制 整治"内卷式"竞争,7月开始更加注重健全"长效机制",且新能源汽车、光伏将是重点。 近段时间以来,政策层面正持续密集部署新能源汽车、光伏等行业的"反内卷",钢铁、水泥、电池、塑 料加工等多个行业协会也陆续发起号召反对"内卷式"无序竞争。 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议明确强调,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,要聚焦重点难点, 依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争,引导企业提升产品品质,推动落后产能有序退出。 两天后,工信部召开了光伏行业制造业企业座谈会,强调依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争, 引导企业提升产品品质,推动落后产能有序退出,实现健康、可持续发展。 综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争,已成为下一阶段工业稳增长的重点工作之一。 下半年面对更加复杂严峻的外部环境,全国工业和信息化主管部门负责同志 ...
王有捐:上半年CPI总体平稳 PPI低位运行
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 23:17
Group 1: Consumer Price Trends - Consumer prices remained generally stable in the first half of the year, with CPI down 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the first quarter [2] - In June, CPI turned from decline to an increase of 0.1%, influenced by international commodity price fluctuations and effective domestic demand policies [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the first quarter [2][4] Group 2: Food Price Dynamics - Food prices decreased by 0.9% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2] - Prices for fresh fruits and aquatic products increased by 2.7% and 0.8%, respectively, contributing approximately 0.08 percentage points to CPI [2] - Pork prices averaged a 3.8% increase in the first half, while beef prices saw a 6.9% decline [2] Group 3: Energy Price Trends - Energy prices fell by 3.2% year-on-year in the first half, with the decline expanding by 2.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3] - Gasoline prices dropped by 7.1%, contributing approximately 0.25 percentage points to the CPI decline [3] Group 4: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a notable decline of 3.6% by June [5] - International commodity price fluctuations led to a mixed price trend in domestic oil and non-ferrous metal industries [5] - Oil and gas extraction prices averaged a 9.6% decline, while non-ferrous metal smelting prices increased by an average of 6.2% [5] Group 5: Export and Industry Price Pressures - Uncertainties in the global trade environment led to price declines in export-oriented industries, with textiles and metal products down 2.3% year-on-year [6] - Sufficient supply and weak demand contributed to price declines in coal and electricity production, with coal prices down 15.4% [7] Group 6: Policy Impact on Prices - Macro policies have stabilized prices in certain industries, with the price of new energy vehicle manufacturing down 1.6%, a reduction narrower than in the first quarter [7] - Consumer demand policies have led to price increases in discretionary consumption sectors, with prices for arts and crafts up 12.3% [7]