汽车ETF（516110）跟踪的是800汽车指数（H30015），该指数从汽车相关行业中筛选出具有代表性的 上市公司证券作为成分股，涵盖整车制造、零部件供应及汽车服务等细分领域，以全面反映汽车行业整 体表现。该指数凭借较高的行业集中度和市场代表性，为投资者提供了便捷的行业投资工具。 万联证券指出，"十五五"期间，汽车及零部件行业将受益于智能制造与绿色转型双轮驱动。数据要素的 广泛使用推动传统制造业转型升级，提高产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。智能网联汽车与零部件领域是 重点发展方向，汽车产业正经历电动化、智能化、网联化变革，新能源汽车市场渗透率持续提升，催生 充电桩、智能座驾、车联网、电池回收等新需求。在产业链零部件领域，电池管理、自动驾驶算法、车 规级芯片等关键零部件和技术具有广阔前景。同时，绿色低碳转型推动新能源与储能系统发展，电化学 储能、氢能等储能技术迎来窗口期，为汽车行业提供配套支持。政策强调"构建以先进制造业为骨干的 现代化产业体系"，汽车行业作为制造业重要组成部分，将在智能化、绿色化进程中实现升级。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Strategy Logic - The report introduces the "Shouzheng Chuq" investment sentiment indicator, which aims to identify potential investment opportunities in the A-share market by analyzing industry rotation phenomena [1][5] - The strategy combines three main dimensions: investment sentiment, volume-price indicators, and analyst expectations, resulting in 12 detailed industry rotation indicators [1][5] - The investment sentiment indicator utilizes market data and alternative data to create positive and negative screening factors, capturing market momentum and sentiment [5][6] Strategy Performance - In November, the overall industry benchmark return was -0.95%, while the "Shouzheng Chuq" sentiment indicator long portfolio returned -1.24% [2][6] - The combined "Expectation Resonance" model long portfolio achieved a return of 0.98%, resulting in an excess return of 1.93% [2][6] - Year-to-date, the "Shouzheng Chuq" sentiment indicator long portfolio has shown robust performance with a return of 30.29% and an excess return of 8.05% [2][12] Latest Recommendations - The top recommended industries based on the latest data include non-bank financials, automotive, food and beverage, home appliances, transportation, and banking according to the "Shouzheng Chuq" model [3][21] - The "Expectation Resonance" model ranks non-bank financials, banking, home appliances, transportation, automotive, and electronics as the leading industries [3][21] - Detailed scores for recommended industries and corresponding ETFs are provided, indicating strong performance in non-bank financials and home appliances [21][22]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a stable allocation in the all-weather model, with industry strategies recommending sectors such as technology, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [2][7][40] - The dynamic all-weather strategy has shown a year-to-date annualized return of 7.2%, while the industry rotation strategy has outperformed the benchmark with a return of 43% [7][20] - The report indicates a slight reduction in positions for gold and US stocks, while increasing holdings in bonds for November [7][18][40] Group 2 - The industry rotation strategy recommends sectors such as non-ferrous metals, technology, and electric power equipment for November, based on historical market conditions [7][29][40] - The report highlights that the industry rotation strategy has consistently outperformed benchmarks since 2017, with an annualized return of 22.6% [21][22] - For ETFs, the report recommends non-ferrous metals, communication, information technology, automotive, and new energy sectors, indicating a strong correlation with the respective industry indices [30][39][40]

Core Insights - The report presents two industry rotation models: one based on similar expected return differentials and another based on changes in analyst expectations, both aimed at identifying investment opportunities in various sectors [11][22]. Group 1: Similar Expected Return Differential Model - The latest configuration suggests focusing on sectors such as coal, communication, basic chemicals, automotive, real estate, and machinery [21]. - In September 2025, the model achieved a monthly return of +4.56%, outperforming the equal-weighted industry index by +3.66% [21]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 shows that the model has a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.09, indicating strong selection ability [14][15]. Group 2: Analyst Expectation Change Model - The latest configuration highlights sectors including non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, communication, steel, and computers [33]. - In September 2025, the model recorded a monthly return of +1.03%, with an excess return of +0.13% over the equal-weighted industry index [33]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 indicates a mean IC of 0.06, demonstrating significant industry selection capability [23][24]. Group 3: ETF Portfolio Construction - The recommended ETF portfolio for October 2025 includes sectors such as non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, and automotive [35]. - Specific ETFs listed include the Huabao CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF and the Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, among others, with significant fund shares [35].

Group 1 - The multi-dimensional timing model by Huatai Jin Gong has achieved a cumulative return of 40.77% since the beginning of the year, indicating a bullish outlook for the A-share market despite relatively high valuations [1][2] - The model predicts that the strongest performing sectors for the upcoming trading week will be precious metals, liquor, food, steel, and banking, reflecting a balanced allocation across consumption, cyclical, and financial sectors [1] - The technology sector remains active, benefiting from domestic "AI+" policies, while the US stock market's positive performance, particularly the Nasdaq's 2.21% increase, has boosted confidence in the A-share market [1][2] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 ETF rose by 2.84% last week, and the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF increased by 2.47%, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and domestic policy support [2] - The automotive ETF emerged as a leader with a 4.26% increase, supported by a growth plan for the automotive sector released by eight departments, enhancing sales expectations for new energy vehicles [2] - The multi-dimensional timing model indicates that the A-share market remains in a bullish window, with a year-to-date increase of 26.98% for the Wind All A index, outperforming the model's 40.77% return [2][3] Group 3 - The timing model signal briefly switched to bearish on September 17 but quickly returned to bullish, influenced by the member holding ratio signal, which indicates strong market sentiment [3] - The industry rotation model shows optimism for specific sectors, with a cumulative return of 36.07% this year, surpassing the industry equal-weight benchmark by 17.01 percentage points [3] - The absolute return ETF simulation portfolio has increased by 7.34% since the beginning of the year, maintaining a positive overall performance despite a slight decline of 0.10% last week [3]

- The report does not contain specific quantitative models or factor construction details. It primarily focuses on market strategies, asset allocation, and ETF performance without delving into quantitative model or factor methodologies. [3][13][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a bifurcation driven by dual forces of policy and technology, with a focus on capturing the benefits of leading companies through the Hong Kong automotive ETF [1][4]. - The market shows a preference for battery-related ETFs over traditional automotive stocks, indicating a shift towards electric and smart vehicles [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive ETF showed mixed performance, with the new energy vehicle ETF rising by 3.17% and the traditional automotive ETF declining by 0.86% [2][11]. - The automotive sector's performance lagged behind the broader market, with a growth of only 1.16% compared to the 3.92% increase in the CSI 300 index [2][23]. Industry Dynamics - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by 9% and 17% year-on-year, respectively, for July, maintaining an upward trend for the year [3][39]. - The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 789,000 units in July, a 15% increase year-on-year, despite a 17% decline month-on-month [42][46]. Industry Trend Outlook - The report predicts that the dual drivers of policy support and technological advancements will continue to enhance growth momentum in the automotive sector [3][53]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 50%, supported by ongoing subsidies and advancements in autonomous driving technology [4][55]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests an overweight position in the smart electric passenger vehicle segment, highlighting the potential for growth driven by policy support and technological advancements [4][55]. - The Hong Kong automotive ETF (520600.OF) is recommended for its concentrated exposure to leading new energy vehicle companies, which may benefit from performance recovery expectations [4][55].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation with major companies committing to shorten supplier payment terms to within 60 days, responding to the revised "Regulations on Payment for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" effective from June 1, 2025, which aims to enhance cash flow efficiency in the industry [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The average payment term for Chinese car manufacturers was over 170 days before this initiative, with some exceeding 240 days, significantly longer than the 60-90 days standard in mature markets [5]. - The new payment terms are expected to alleviate cash flow pressures on small and medium-sized enterprises and curb the practice of extending payment terms to shift financial burdens [5][20]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the automotive sector saw a notable increase, with the automotive index rising by 1.9% on June 11, 2025, and stocks of companies like Meichen Technology and Xinyue Technology hitting the daily limit [7]. - Automotive ETFs also performed well, with an average return of 2.3% on the same day, contributing significantly to their year-to-date gains [8]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The highest-performing ETF was the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF, which recorded a year-to-date increase of 31.1% and a daily rise of 3.1% [10]. - In contrast, automotive parts ETFs showed weaker performance, with an average return of only 1.5% on June 11, 2025, and a year-to-date average return of 5.5% [15]. Group 4: Challenges for Parts Suppliers - Despite the potential benefits of shorter payment terms for automotive parts suppliers, these suppliers face challenges due to a lack of bargaining power, as major car manufacturers often delay payments and demand price reductions [17].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation with major companies committing to shorten supplier payment terms to within 60 days, responding to the revised "Regulations on Payment for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" effective from June 1, 2025, which aims to enhance cash flow efficiency in the industry [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The average payment term for Chinese car manufacturers was over 170 days before this policy, with some exceeding 240 days, significantly longer than the 60-90 days standard in mature markets [5]. - The new payment term is expected to alleviate cash flow pressures on small and medium-sized enterprises and curb the practice of extending payment terms to shift financial burdens [5][20]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the automotive sector saw a notable increase, with the automotive index rising by 1.9% on June 11, 2025, and stocks of companies like Meichen Technology and Xinyue Technology hitting the daily limit [7]. - Automotive ETFs also performed well, with an average return of 2.3% on the same day, contributing significantly to their year-to-date gains [8]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The highest-performing ETF was the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF, which recorded a year-to-date increase of 31.1% and a daily rise of 3.1% [10]. - In contrast, automotive parts ETFs showed weaker performance, with an average return of only 1.5% on June 11, 2025, and a year-to-date average return of 5.5% [15]. Group 4: Challenges for Parts Suppliers - Despite the potential benefits of shorter payment terms for parts suppliers, they face challenges due to a lack of bargaining power, as major automakers often delay payments and demand price reductions [17]. - The automotive parts ETF has seen a drastic decline in fund size, dropping over 96% from 260 million yuan to just 10 million yuan, indicating a lack of investor interest [15].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations in the first half of the week, followed by a brief rise and subsequent decline, with overall performance remaining stable and trading volume maintaining at over 1 trillion [1] - The three major indices saw a continuous recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 1.13%, 1.42%, and 2.32% respectively [1] - The bond market showed a slight decline but remained at a relatively high level, reflecting a decrease in overall market risk appetite [1] ETF Performance - The average increase of all ETFs was 1.47%, with cross-border ETFs performing particularly well, averaging a rise of 2.23% [1] - AI and innovative pharmaceuticals were the main growth drivers, with top-performing ETFs in these sectors showing significant gains, such as the Huabao ChiNext AI ETF rising by 6.57% [2][3] - Conversely, consumer and automotive ETFs experienced notable declines, with the Greater Bay Area ETF dropping by 2.21% [4][5] Fund Flow Trends - The ETF market saw a net outflow of 24.88 billion, with a notable decrease in market activity [6] - Conservative investment preferences led to significant inflows into bond ETFs, with the Short-term Bond ETF attracting 14.69 billion, making it the top inflow [8] - The Shanghai Corporate Bond ETF recorded a weekly trading volume of 363.50 billion, indicating strong interest in bond funds [10] Upcoming ETF Listings - Four new ETFs are set to launch next week, including the Guotai ChiNext New Energy ETF, which tracks a representative index of the new energy industry [11] - The Invesco CSI 300 Enhanced Strategy ETF aims to provide returns exceeding the index through active management, focusing on high-quality core assets [12]