（原标题：图解1月ETF涨跌幅、资金流） AI应用概念强势爆发，传媒ETF涨超20%；油气股上涨，油气ETF涨超20%。 (本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议） 1月，银行ETF跌超6%，汽车ETF、电池ETF下跌。 天量资金，最新动向来了！ 2026年开年ETF成交量明显放大，1月28日收盘，多只ETF放出历史最大成交量，其中沪深300ETF华泰 柏瑞当日成交量超400亿，上证50ETF创出2015年以来最大成交量。 在刚刚过去的1月，巨量主力资金大动作。 2026年开年以来，A股ETF市场呈现鲜明分化格局。1月，以有色金属、黄金、化工、电网设备、卫星、 软件、传媒等为代表的行业主题ETF获得超2000亿元资金青睐，以沪深300、中证1000等为代表的多只 核心宽基ETF资金净流出额超1万亿。 ETF最新涨跌幅、资金流来了～ 沪指1月累计涨3.76%，1月中旬再创十年新高后小幅回落，最终收涨4100点关口上方。科创50指数1月 累计上涨超12%，上证50指数"先扬后抑"，日线一度收出6连阴。 从板块来看，有色金属与科技两大主线交替领涨。1月，中韩半导体ETF、黄金股票ETF涨超40%，巴西 E ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The profit growth of industrial enterprises in 2025 is supported by new momentum and anti-involution policies, with a marginal increase in profit growth rate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year [2][3] - In December 2025, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year, reversing from negative to positive with an 18.4 percentage point recovery [3] - The industrial added value in December 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, driven by resilient exports and high-tech industries [3] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises in 2025 was 5.31%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, but the decline was less severe than in the previous months [3] - Among 41 industrial sectors, 16 sectors achieved positive profit growth in 2025, with notable growth in black metal smelting, non-ferrous metal mining, and high-tech manufacturing [4] - The end of three consecutive years of negative profit growth for industrial enterprises is attributed to support from new momentum sectors and the implementation of anti-involution policies [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds remaining stable and other types of bonds seeing growth [6][8] - Credit bond yields generally declined, with credit spreads for medium and short-term notes narrowing [8] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with a focus on adjusting strategies in response to market fluctuations and maintaining a cautious approach to ticket strategies [8] Fund Research - The number of equity funds increased to 7,583 by the end of Q4 2025, with a total scale of 94,572.12 billion, a decrease of 277.04 billion from the previous quarter [11] - Active equity funds saw a slight decrease in positions, with a notable decline in mixed and flexible allocation funds [11][12] - The allocation in the main board decreased significantly, while the allocation in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market increased [12] - The top five industries with increased holdings included non-ferrous metals and communications, while electronics and biomedicine saw a decrease [12] Industry Research - The geopolitical situation has led to strong performance in gold prices, with expectations for continued upward pressure due to uncertainties [14][15] - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to steady growth policies and demand in shipbuilding and construction [15] - The copper industry is anticipated to maintain a favorable outlook, supported by supply constraints and demand from key sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [16] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from improved supply dynamics and demand from the new energy vehicle sector [16] - The rare earth industry is projected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export control upgrades and strategic importance [17]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive and parts industry is expected to benefit from the dual drivers of smart manufacturing and green transformation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on electric, intelligent, and connected vehicles [1] Industry Trends - The widespread use of data elements is driving the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing, enhancing the resilience and security of supply chains [1] - Key development areas include smart connected vehicles and parts, with the market penetration of new energy vehicles continuously increasing, leading to new demands for charging stations, smart driving, vehicle networking, and battery recycling [1] - The green low-carbon transition is promoting the development of new energy and energy storage systems, with technologies such as electrochemical energy storage and hydrogen energy entering a critical period, providing support for the automotive industry [1] Investment Opportunities - The automotive ETF (516110) tracks the 800 automotive index (H30015), which selects representative listed company securities from the automotive-related industry, covering vehicle manufacturing, parts supply, and automotive services [1] - This index, with its high industry concentration and market representation, offers investors a convenient tool for industry investment [1]

Strategy Logic - The report introduces the "Shouzheng Chuq" investment sentiment indicator, which aims to identify potential investment opportunities in the A-share market by analyzing industry rotation phenomena [1][5] - The strategy combines three main dimensions: investment sentiment, volume-price indicators, and analyst expectations, resulting in 12 detailed industry rotation indicators [1][5] - The investment sentiment indicator utilizes market data and alternative data to create positive and negative screening factors, capturing market momentum and sentiment [5][6] Strategy Performance - In November, the overall industry benchmark return was -0.95%, while the "Shouzheng Chuq" sentiment indicator long portfolio returned -1.24% [2][6] - The combined "Expectation Resonance" model long portfolio achieved a return of 0.98%, resulting in an excess return of 1.93% [2][6] - Year-to-date, the "Shouzheng Chuq" sentiment indicator long portfolio has shown robust performance with a return of 30.29% and an excess return of 8.05% [2][12] Latest Recommendations - The top recommended industries based on the latest data include non-bank financials, automotive, food and beverage, home appliances, transportation, and banking according to the "Shouzheng Chuq" model [3][21] - The "Expectation Resonance" model ranks non-bank financials, banking, home appliances, transportation, automotive, and electronics as the leading industries [3][21] - Detailed scores for recommended industries and corresponding ETFs are provided, indicating strong performance in non-bank financials and home appliances [21][22]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes a stable allocation in the all-weather model, with industry strategies recommending sectors such as technology, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [2][7][40] - The dynamic all-weather strategy has shown a year-to-date annualized return of 7.2%, while the industry rotation strategy has outperformed the benchmark with a return of 43% [7][20] - The report indicates a slight reduction in positions for gold and US stocks, while increasing holdings in bonds for November [7][18][40] Group 2 - The industry rotation strategy recommends sectors such as non-ferrous metals, technology, and electric power equipment for November, based on historical market conditions [7][29][40] - The report highlights that the industry rotation strategy has consistently outperformed benchmarks since 2017, with an annualized return of 22.6% [21][22] - For ETFs, the report recommends non-ferrous metals, communication, information technology, automotive, and new energy sectors, indicating a strong correlation with the respective industry indices [30][39][40]

Core Insights - The report presents two industry rotation models: one based on similar expected return differentials and another based on changes in analyst expectations, both aimed at identifying investment opportunities in various sectors [11][22]. Group 1: Similar Expected Return Differential Model - The latest configuration suggests focusing on sectors such as coal, communication, basic chemicals, automotive, real estate, and machinery [21]. - In September 2025, the model achieved a monthly return of +4.56%, outperforming the equal-weighted industry index by +3.66% [21]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 shows that the model has a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.09, indicating strong selection ability [14][15]. Group 2: Analyst Expectation Change Model - The latest configuration highlights sectors including non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, communication, steel, and computers [33]. - In September 2025, the model recorded a monthly return of +1.03%, with an excess return of +0.13% over the equal-weighted industry index [33]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 indicates a mean IC of 0.06, demonstrating significant industry selection capability [23][24]. Group 3: ETF Portfolio Construction - The recommended ETF portfolio for October 2025 includes sectors such as non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, and automotive [35]. - Specific ETFs listed include the Huabao CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF and the Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, among others, with significant fund shares [35].

Group 1 - The multi-dimensional timing model by Huatai Jin Gong has achieved a cumulative return of 40.77% since the beginning of the year, indicating a bullish outlook for the A-share market despite relatively high valuations [1][2] - The model predicts that the strongest performing sectors for the upcoming trading week will be precious metals, liquor, food, steel, and banking, reflecting a balanced allocation across consumption, cyclical, and financial sectors [1] - The technology sector remains active, benefiting from domestic "AI+" policies, while the US stock market's positive performance, particularly the Nasdaq's 2.21% increase, has boosted confidence in the A-share market [1][2] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 ETF rose by 2.84% last week, and the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF increased by 2.47%, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and domestic policy support [2] - The automotive ETF emerged as a leader with a 4.26% increase, supported by a growth plan for the automotive sector released by eight departments, enhancing sales expectations for new energy vehicles [2] - The multi-dimensional timing model indicates that the A-share market remains in a bullish window, with a year-to-date increase of 26.98% for the Wind All A index, outperforming the model's 40.77% return [2][3] Group 3 - The timing model signal briefly switched to bearish on September 17 but quickly returned to bullish, influenced by the member holding ratio signal, which indicates strong market sentiment [3] - The industry rotation model shows optimism for specific sectors, with a cumulative return of 36.07% this year, surpassing the industry equal-weight benchmark by 17.01 percentage points [3] - The absolute return ETF simulation portfolio has increased by 7.34% since the beginning of the year, maintaining a positive overall performance despite a slight decline of 0.10% last week [3]

- The report does not contain specific quantitative models or factor construction details. It primarily focuses on market strategies, asset allocation, and ETF performance without delving into quantitative model or factor methodologies. [3][13][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a bifurcation driven by dual forces of policy and technology, with a focus on capturing the benefits of leading companies through the Hong Kong automotive ETF [1][4]. - The market shows a preference for battery-related ETFs over traditional automotive stocks, indicating a shift towards electric and smart vehicles [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The automotive ETF showed mixed performance, with the new energy vehicle ETF rising by 3.17% and the traditional automotive ETF declining by 0.86% [2][11]. - The automotive sector's performance lagged behind the broader market, with a growth of only 1.16% compared to the 3.92% increase in the CSI 300 index [2][23]. Industry Dynamics - Retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles increased by 9% and 17% year-on-year, respectively, for July, maintaining an upward trend for the year [3][39]. - The new energy vehicle market saw retail sales of 789,000 units in July, a 15% increase year-on-year, despite a 17% decline month-on-month [42][46]. Industry Trend Outlook - The report predicts that the dual drivers of policy support and technological advancements will continue to enhance growth momentum in the automotive sector [3][53]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 50%, supported by ongoing subsidies and advancements in autonomous driving technology [4][55]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests an overweight position in the smart electric passenger vehicle segment, highlighting the potential for growth driven by policy support and technological advancements [4][55]. - The Hong Kong automotive ETF (520600.OF) is recommended for its concentrated exposure to leading new energy vehicle companies, which may benefit from performance recovery expectations [4][55].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation with major companies committing to shorten supplier payment terms to within 60 days, responding to the revised "Regulations on Payment for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" effective from June 1, 2025, which aims to enhance cash flow efficiency in the industry [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Changes - The average payment term for Chinese car manufacturers was over 170 days before this initiative, with some exceeding 240 days, significantly longer than the 60-90 days standard in mature markets [5]. - The new payment terms are expected to alleviate cash flow pressures on small and medium-sized enterprises and curb the practice of extending payment terms to shift financial burdens [5][20]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the automotive sector saw a notable increase, with the automotive index rising by 1.9% on June 11, 2025, and stocks of companies like Meichen Technology and Xinyue Technology hitting the daily limit [7]. - Automotive ETFs also performed well, with an average return of 2.3% on the same day, contributing significantly to their year-to-date gains [8]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The highest-performing ETF was the Hong Kong Stock Connect Automotive ETF, which recorded a year-to-date increase of 31.1% and a daily rise of 3.1% [10]. - In contrast, automotive parts ETFs showed weaker performance, with an average return of only 1.5% on June 11, 2025, and a year-to-date average return of 5.5% [15]. Group 4: Challenges for Parts Suppliers - Despite the potential benefits of shorter payment terms for automotive parts suppliers, these suppliers face challenges due to a lack of bargaining power, as major car manufacturers often delay payments and demand price reductions [17].