金融期货早评 宏观：美国上周首次申请失业救济人数意外不增反降 【市场资讯】1）中国工信部等六部门：有序发展直播电商、即时零售等新业态，推动人工 智能在消费品全行业全领域全过程应用。2）中国商务部：敦促荷兰政府尽快提出建设性的 安世半导体解决方案，为企业开展内部协商创造有利条件。3）万科历史首次探讨债券展期， 公告称拟召开 2022 年度第四期中期票据持有人会议。4）美国上周首次申请失业救济人数 意外不增反降、回落至 21.6 万，创七个月新低；美国 9 月耐用品订单初值环比增长 0.5%符 合预期，核心资本品订单增速超预期加快至 0.9%。8）美联储褐皮书：覆盖政府关门期的 一个多月内，经济活动变化不大，关税压力挤压企业利润，AI 抑制部分招聘需求，零售商 透露政府关门对消费有负面影响。9）英国财相公布 260 亿英镑增税计划，伦敦证交所新股 豁免三年印花税；官方预算监管机构意外提前泄露预算案：财政缓冲翻倍至 220 亿英镑， 大幅下调 2026 年 GDP 增速至 1.4%。10）特朗普称促俄和谈取得巨大进展但"没有最后期 限"；俄总统助理：美国特使威特科夫将于下周访问莫斯科；俄总统新闻秘书：与美接触时 间 ...

（来源：福能期货） 01 重点关注 碳酸锂 近期碳酸锂价格回调主要受三大因素影响：一是广期所实施限仓令；二是SMM周度库存去库量从前值 3406吨收窄至2052吨，去库动能不及预期；三是宁德枧下窝矿山提前复产传闻发酵。短期锂价或受情绪 降温延续弱势运行，但当前供需格局已较上半年显著改善，支撑价格底部区间上移至8万上方，关注后 续宁德枧下窝矿山复产进度。 原油 隔夜，WTI 01月合约收于58.84美元/桶，上涨1.34%，布伦特 01月合约收于63.37美元/桶，上涨1.29%。 美、乌表示会谈有所进展，但未表明计划的具体修改，且仍有分歧存在，欧盟团体提出修改后的和平计 划遭俄拒绝，市场等待进一步结果。地缘扰动下国际油价上涨。预计INE原油跟随修复。加勒比海附近 仍有多个美军战斗群，后续关注俄乌和平计划进展和委内瑞拉地缘局势变化。 双焦 甘其毛都口岸自24日凌晨开始持续降雪，受恶劣天气影响24日下午14时左右国内方向外调停止。国内主 产区煤矿开工率小幅回升，国内炼焦煤供应缓慢恢复。市场情绪谨慎偏弱，成交活跃度降低，部分矿端 报价继续小幅下调。短期内煤焦需求仍有支撑，不过随着钢厂陆续减产检修，对原料价格的支撑力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tax incentives for enterprises engaged in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery projects, highlighting the specific conditions under which these enterprises can enjoy exemptions or reductions in corporate income tax [1][2]. Tax Incentives Overview - Enterprises involved in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery can benefit from corporate income tax exemptions or reductions as per the relevant laws [1]. - The specific projects eligible for tax incentives include the cultivation of various crops, breeding of new crop varieties, cultivation of medicinal herbs, and livestock farming [1][2]. Specific Tax Exemption Conditions - Tax exemptions apply to: 1. Cultivation of vegetables, grains, tubers, oilseeds, legumes, cotton, hemp, sugar crops, fruits, and nuts [1]. 2. Breeding of new crop varieties and medicinal herbs [1]. 3. Forestry activities including tree cultivation and management [7]. 4. Livestock and poultry farming under a "company + farmer" model [10] [1]. - Enterprises involved in restricted or prohibited projects are not eligible for these tax benefits [2]. Initial Processing Exclusions - Certain initial processing activities do not qualify for tax incentives, such as: 1. Canned vegetables and ground horticultural plants [11]. 2. Refined vegetable oils and processed teas [12]. 3. Various processed animal products [13]. 4. Processed aquatic products [13] [12]. Documentation and Compliance - Enterprises must maintain proper documentation to qualify for tax incentives, including: 1. Relevant qualification certificates for agricultural activities [14]. 2. Contracts with farmers in the "company + farmer" model [14]. 3. Detailed descriptions of agricultural processing projects [14]. 4. Proof of production sites and land use rights [14].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the supply and demand analysis report for bulk agricultural products for September 2025, indicating various trends across different commodities [1] Rice - Domestic market: With the large-scale listing of mid and late rice, supply is expected to increase significantly while terminal demand remains stable, leading to a forecast of weak domestic rice prices [2] - International market: Global rice production is expected to reach a new high in 2025, with weak demand, resulting in low rice prices [2] Wheat - Domestic market: The wheat market has sufficient grain supply, and flour consumption is entering a peak season, with policy storage providing price support, leading to a forecast of stable domestic wheat prices [3] - International market: Global wheat production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, with ample supply; however, weather changes in major producing areas may affect the sowing progress for the next year, leading to low price fluctuations internationally [3] Corn - Domestic market: Current carryover stocks are low, and market demand remains stable; with the new season corn being listed, prices are expected to remain stable [4] - International market: The outlook for U.S. corn exports is positive, with expectations for international prices to rebound [4] Soybeans - Domestic market: The soybean market is in a transitional phase between old and new crops, with trade participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude; as new beans are listed post-National Day, supply is expected to increase, and domestic soybean prices are forecasted to remain stable due to high import costs [5] - International market: Soybean prices are mainly influenced by the progress of China-U.S. negotiations and weather conditions, expected to remain low and fluctuate [5] Cotton - Domestic market: Strong expectations for cotton production, with reduced imports and a potential seasonal recovery in demand, leading to a forecast of stable cotton prices [6] - International market: With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere being listed and increased production expectations, global economic recovery remains weak, leading to no significant improvement in cotton consumption demand, resulting in a forecast of weak international cotton prices [6] Oilseeds - Domestic market: Due to increased import costs and reduced inventory, domestic rapeseed prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; with increased listings in major peanut-producing areas, prices are expected to remain stable but slightly weak [7] - International market: Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase, leading to a forecast of declining international rapeseed prices; palm oil production is expected to decline, tightening supply and supporting stronger prices [7] Sugar - Domestic market: With new sugar entering the market and continuous imports, domestic supply is ample, and downstream purchasing has slowed, leading to a forecast of stable but weak sugar prices [8] - International market: Several international sugar analysis agencies predict increased production in major producing countries like Brazil, India, and Thailand, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in international sugar prices [8] Pork - The continuous increase in the number of newborn piglets since the second quarter has led to a peak in pig slaughtering, with supply expected to continue growing; starting in November, southern regions will begin to cure preserved meat, leading to a seasonal increase in pork consumption demand, with prices expected to rise seasonally but remain within a narrow fluctuation range [9]

Group 1: Financial Futures - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Domestically, the expectation of a缓和 in Sino-US trade relations has increased, but short - term expectations for negotiation results should not be too high. Overseas, the US government shutdown has led to data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased but risks remain. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of US employment and inflation data [1] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Macro: Focus on the Fourth Plenary Session and the APEC Summit. The US government shutdown may cause a temporary rise in unemployment. Trump's actions and statements have affected the oil market. India and the US are close to reaching a trade agreement [1] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate has basically stabilized within a narrow range. Although the external environment is uncertain, it is expected to remain stable at a reasonable and balanced level. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3] - Stock index: The stock market is in a wait - and - see state. It is necessary to focus on the release of information from the Fourth Plenary Session. Before there is substantial progress in Sino - US trade, the stock index's sensitivity to it has weakened. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying straddle options [4][5] - Treasury bond: The bond market is waiting for news guidance. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions at low levels and go long on dips for those with empty positions [5][6] - Container shipping European line: The futures price continues to consolidate at a high level. There are both long and short factors. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term. Trend traders can try long positions lightly, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the opportunity of spread regression [7][8] Group 2: Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends. Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment stage; copper prices are affected by multiple factors and are expected to fluctuate within a range; the alumina industry is in an oversupply situation; zinc spreads continue to expand; nickel and stainless steel are waiting for clear signals; tin is expected to be strong; lithium carbonate is expected to be strong; industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a shock adjustment; lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [9][13][16][17][19][20][22][24][25] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Gold & Silver: In the short - term adjustment stage, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term. London gold has resistance at 4150 and support at 4000; silver has resistance at 50 - 50.5 and strong resistance at 55, support at 48 [9][11] - Copper: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 84000 - 86000. Speculators can go long on dips around 85000 ± 500. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combined strategy to reduce procurement costs, and enterprises with inventory pressure can use call options for hedging [12][13][14] - Aluminum industry chain: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the APEC Sino - US meeting and the change of alumina cost [14][15][16] - Zinc: The spread continues to expand. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro - upward drive [17] - Nickel, stainless steel: Continue to fluctuate, waiting for clear signals. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff issues and the change of nickel ore quota in 2026 [17][19] - Tin: It is expected to be strong. The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [20] - Lithium carbonate: The bottom space is stable, and it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to downstream production scheduling and supply - side resumption [21][22] - Industrial silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon may see a small increase in price due to enterprise production cuts in the dry season, but it is restricted by inventory. Polysilicon has production cuts in the southwest region, and the specific impact needs to be observed [23][24] - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to sell both call and put options to earn option premiums [25] Black Metals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Steel products are expected to rebound in the short term but be weak in the long term. Iron ore is under pressure. Coking coal and coke have a strong bottom support but limited rebound space. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory [26][28][30][31] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Rebar & Hot - rolled coil: It is expected to rebound in the short term but be weak in the long term. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and the possibility of policy stimulus [26] - Iron ore: Under the dual pressure of macro - sentiment and fundamentals, it is in a weak shock. The key lies in policy signals [28] - Coking coal & Coke: The coking coal spot market is tight, but the downstream contradiction has intensified, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to treat it with a shock mindset [29][30] - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is high. If there is no super - expected stimulus policy, the price will be under pressure [31] Energy and Chemicals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Crude oil has a short - term rebound but long - term concerns. LPG follows the rise of crude oil. PTA - PX follows the cost - end shock. MEG is under pressure and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Methanol fluctuates under pressure. PP's supply pressure is temporarily relieved. PE's supply is strong and demand is weak. Pure benzene and styrene rebound at a low level. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are affected by supply and demand. Asphalt is affected by raw material concerns. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda need to pay attention to supply changes [33][35][37][38][43][44][48][50][53][54][55][56][57][59][60] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Crude oil: The short - term rebound is due to sanctions, but there are long - term supply surpluses [33][35] - LPG: Follows the rise of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [36][37] - PTA - PX: Follows the cost - end shock. It is recommended to wait and see on the one - hand and expand the processing fee on TA01 when it is below 280 [38][39][40] - MEG: Under pressure, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options after the macro situation is determined [41][42][43] - Methanol: Fluctuates under pressure. The port inventory accumulation is smoothed, and the price range is 2250 - 2350 [44] - PP: The supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and it is recommended to shrink the L - P spread in the short term [47][48] - PE: The supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro and cost changes [49][50][51] - Pure benzene & Styrene: Rebound at a low level. It is recommended to shrink the price spread in the short term and wait and see on the one - hand [52][53] - Fuel oil: The supply tension is relieved, and the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish [54] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply is narrowed, the demand is weak, and the upward drive is limited [55] - Asphalt: Affected by raw material concerns, it is recommended to wait and see or short at a high level [56] - Glass, Soda ash, Caustic soda: Soda ash has long - term supply pressure; glass has high inventory and weak demand; caustic soda needs to observe the replenishment demand [57][59][60] Pulp, Logs, etc. - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Pulp and offset paper may continue to rise in the short term but are restricted above. Logs have a new low in the month - spread. Propylene is expected to fluctuate [60][61][62][63][65][66] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Pulp & Offset paper: Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate upward, and offset paper's decline is temporarily interrupted [60][61][62] - Logs: The month - spread reaches a new low. There are potential supply - reduction factors, and it is recommended to use a covered call strategy for the 01 contract [63][64] - Propylene: Expected to fluctuate. The cost provides short - term support, but there is a lack of upward drive [65][66] Agricultural Products - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The short - term supply of live pigs decreases. It is recommended to use a 1 - 5 positive spread and go short on rallies [68][69] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Live pigs: The short - term supply decreases. Pay attention to the game between farmers' sentiment and price on replenishment, and the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [68][69]

Core Insights - Zhengzhou is focusing on building a modern agricultural city during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing food security, technological innovation, and industrial upgrades [1][2][3] Food Security - Zhengzhou has implemented multiple measures to ensure food security during challenging weather conditions, maintaining a stable grain planting area of approximately 4.46 million acres and a total output of over 2.9 billion pounds [2] - The city has constructed 1.28 million acres of high-standard farmland and improved drainage systems, enhancing flood and drought resistance [2] - The Central Plains Modern Food Industry Park has boosted the pig industry, with a year-on-year increase of over 24% in pig output in the first half of the year [2] Modern Agricultural System - Zhengzhou is expanding agriculture from traditional production to a full industrial chain, with significant growth in new industries and business models [3] - The city has launched nine provincial-level agricultural seed projects and established a high-quality seed development plan, promoting modern seed industry development [3] - The number of key leading agricultural enterprises has reached 161, with 14 at the national level, fostering a robust agricultural service system [3] Rural Development - Zhengzhou has made progress in building a brand for specialty agricultural products, with 133 green food products and 10 geographical indication products recognized [4] - The city has developed 18 new rural tourism routes and cultivated several national-level leisure agriculture key counties and beautiful rural areas [4] Beautiful and Livable Villages - Zhengzhou has invested over 1.4 billion yuan in constructing beautiful and livable villages, with 80 projects completed and 12 leisure tourism routes established [6] - The city is promoting a comprehensive rural revitalization strategy, with a focus on creating pilot areas for rural development [6] Governance and Community Engagement - The city has enhanced rural governance through community engagement and innovative management models, integrating agricultural work into a broader governance framework [7] - Efforts to improve farmers' income through skill training and support for entrepreneurship have led to stable income growth for rural residents [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the tax exemption policies for agricultural products, specifically focusing on the sales of primary agricultural products by producers and cooperatives [2][3]. - Agricultural producers selling their own primary products are eligible for tax exemptions, while those selling purchased agricultural products or processed products are not [2][3]. - The "company + farmer" model allows for tax exemptions on the sales of livestock and poultry when companies contract with farmers for production [3]. Group 2 - Specific agricultural activities such as the cultivation of vegetables, grains, and certain seeds are exempt from corporate income tax [3][4]. - Initial processing of agricultural products that does not alter their inherent components is eligible for corporate income tax benefits [5]. - Certain processed products, including canned vegetables and refined oils, do not qualify as initial processing and are thus ineligible for tax benefits [6]. Group 3 - There are provisions for reduced corporate income tax rates for specific agricultural sectors, such as flower and tea cultivation, as well as aquaculture [7]. - The article outlines the tax benefits for individual businesses, including VAT exemptions for small-scale taxpayers with monthly sales not exceeding 100,000 yuan [14][15]. - Individual businesses with annual taxable income not exceeding 2 million yuan can benefit from a halved personal income tax rate [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the commitment of Henan province to enhance agricultural productivity, improve rural environments, and increase farmers' incomes, aiming to achieve the goal of becoming an agricultural strong province while ensuring food security and rural revitalization [2][3]. Agricultural Efficiency - Henan's grain production has remained stable at over 130 billion jin for eight consecutive years, contributing significantly to national food security [3]. - The province has implemented the strategy of "storing grain in the ground and technology," leading to the construction of high-standard farmland covering 88.08 million acres, which is about 78% of the total arable land [4]. - By 2025, Henan plans to build and upgrade over 5 million acres of high-standard farmland, ensuring long-term benefits for grain production [4]. - The number of farmer cooperatives and family farms has reached 196,000 and 275,000 respectively, with a cultivated area of 36.65 million acres, accounting for 33.26% of the total [5]. - Henan is a major producer of oilseeds, edible fungi, and vegetables, ranking first in oilseeds and edible fungi production and second in vegetable production nationally [5]. Rural Quality Improvement - The enhancement of rural quality is crucial for Henan's transition from an agricultural province to an agricultural strong province [6]. - Infrastructure improvements have led to better living conditions, with 93.7% of rural households having access to tap water and 5G network coverage in all administrative villages [8]. - The village of Dongyue has transformed from a poor area to a prosperous one, generating an annual income of 13 million yuan from tourism [8]. - Cultural initiatives and community engagement have fostered a sense of responsibility among villagers, promoting cleanliness and neighborly harmony [9]. Farmer Income Increase - The focus on increasing farmers' income is central to the agricultural strong province initiative, with efforts to involve farmers as active participants in rural revitalization [10]. - The promotion of mushroom cultivation in Xixia County exemplifies the successful implementation of the "leading enterprises + cooperatives + farmers" model, enhancing the value of agricultural products [11]. - By 2024, the per capita disposable income of rural residents in Henan is projected to reach 21,330 yuan, a significant increase from 16,107 yuan in 2020 [11]. - Skills training programs are being implemented to help farmers adapt to modern agricultural demands, with 355,000 individuals trained in 2024 [12].

Core Insights - Hunan Aocuiyuan Agricultural and Forestry Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 2.8 million RMB [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Cai Xianpei [1] - The company's business scope includes general projects such as oilseed planting, nut planting, spice crop planting, daily chemical product manufacturing and sales, daily miscellaneous product manufacturing, cosmetics wholesale and retail, agricultural production management services, horticultural services, and agricultural scientific research and experimental development [1] - The company is also involved in technical services, development, consulting, exchange, transfer, and promotion, as well as traditional Chinese medicine planting (excluding rare and precious varieties) [1]

Core Insights - The company has focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, achieving a nearly 12% savings rate in material procurement funds from January to August [1] Group 1: Supply Chain Management - The company implemented a "one main, one auxiliary" supplier selection mechanism, leading to an average price reduction of 11.3% for five major categories of materials [2] - A "five observations" assessment method was adopted to strengthen supplier quality control, resulting in a reduction of regular suppliers from 425 to 323, with a significant increase in the proportion of core suppliers [2] Group 2: Digitalization and Price Control - A digital price management system was established to monitor price anomalies, intercepting 47 instances of abnormal pricing this year, which helped maintain procurement costs within a reasonable range [3] - The company developed a digital comparison platform that allows for real-time monitoring and historical tracking of material prices, enhancing procurement efficiency [3] Group 3: Emergency Supply Management - The company successfully coordinated the emergency delivery of 1,139 tons of potassium chloride to meet urgent drilling needs, demonstrating effective crisis management [4] - A direct supply mechanism was introduced to address grassroots supply challenges, ensuring timely feedback from frontline operations to improve supply quality and efficiency [4]