Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its profit forecasts for Hengan International (01044) for 2025 to 2027 by 1% to 4% and revenue forecasts by 1% to 2%, increasing the target price from HKD 27.7 to HKD 29.5 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Hengan's revenue and net profit are expected to decline by 0.2% and 2.6% respectively, with a projected net profit drop of approximately 12% when excluding foreign exchange gains, which is largely in line with UBS's expectations [1] - The tissue paper business saw a year-on-year revenue growth of 3%, while the sanitary napkin business experienced a year-on-year decline of 14% [1] Management Insights - Management indicated that the performance of wet wipes is stable, and the competitive landscape in the tissue paper market is better than expected, although sales of sanitary products and mid-to-low-end diapers have declined due to intensified competition [1] Future Outlook - The group anticipates steady growth in tissue paper sales, with an expected improvement in the gross margin of sanitary products in the second half of 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The company reported stable revenue of 11.808 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.373 billion RMB, maintaining a stable interim dividend of 0.70 RMB per share [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The tissue business accounted for approximately 60.8% of total revenue, with sales increasing by about 3.2% year-on-year to 7.174 billion RMB [3] - The sales of wet wipes surged by 34.7% to 797 million RMB, contributing to 11.1% of the tissue business sales, becoming a significant growth driver [3] - The hygiene products segment, including sanitary napkins and diapers, saw a decline of about 14.4% to approximately 3.304 billion RMB, but showed a recovery with a 7.3% increase compared to the second half of the previous year [3] Group 2: E-commerce and New Retail - Sales from e-commerce and new retail channels grew by approximately 7.9% to 4.06 billion RMB, representing about 34.4% of total sales [4] - E-commerce and new retail channels contributed approximately 40.5% and 32.5% to the sales of tissue and hygiene products, respectively [4] Group 3: Safety and Standards - The safety of sanitary napkins has become a focal point, with the company emphasizing its commitment to exceeding national safety standards [5] - The CEO indicated that high gross margins are primarily used to support marketing expenses, which are crucial to avoid price competition [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The chairman anticipates continued intense competition in the domestic hygiene products market, particularly in the sanitary napkin sector, with ongoing price promotions [6] - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy Implementation Plan" is expected to lower childcare costs and expand demand for diapers and related products [6] - The company plans to maintain stable pricing strategies and leverage brand value to capture market opportunities amid industry consolidation [6]

Core Viewpoint - Hengan International's sales of sanitary products, particularly under the brand Seven Degrees Space, have significantly declined in the first half of the year, leading to a decrease in both revenue and net profit for the group [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Hengan International reported a revenue decline of 0.2% year-on-year to 11.808 billion yuan, with net profit down 2.6% to 1.373 billion yuan, and gross margin decreasing by 1% to 32.3% [1]. - The sanitary products segment saw a revenue drop of 14.4% to 3.304 billion yuan, with segment profit down 31.3% to 709 million yuan [2]. - The tissue paper segment experienced a revenue increase of 3.2% to 7.174 billion yuan, with segment profit rising by 2.0% to 313 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sanitary products segment accounted for 28.0% of total revenue but contributed 61.04% of total profit, while tissue products made up 60.8% of revenue but only 27.1% of profit [4]. - Increased competition in the sanitary products market has led to significant challenges, with domestic brands aggressively using promotional strategies to capture market share, particularly in e-commerce channels [4]. - The rise in promotional expenses has been noted, with a double-digit percentage increase year-on-year due to competitive pressures [4]. Group 3: Product Segmentation - The company has merged its sanitary napkin and disposable diaper businesses into a single sanitary products segment for better operational management [2]. - The wet tissue segment has shown strong growth, with sales increasing by 34.7% to 797 million yuan, now accounting for 11.1% of total revenue [6]. - Hengan International plans to focus on high-margin products and expects stable growth in the high-end product segment while maintaining marketing investments [6].

Core Viewpoint - Leshu Shi Limited, a company specializing in hygiene products, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its significant revenue from the African market, where it has become a household name despite being relatively unknown in China [4][12]. Company Background - Leshu Shi was founded by a couple, Shen Yanchang and Yang Yanjuan, who have a history of engaging with the African market through their previous company, Sen Da Group, which focused on international trade and manufacturing [4][6][10]. - The company began its operations in 2009 as a division of Sen Da Group, initially selling baby diapers in West Africa and has since expanded its product offerings [8][10]. Financial Performance - Leshu Shi reported revenues exceeding 3 billion yuan (approximately 450 million USD) in 2024, with baby diapers accounting for 75.3% of its total revenue [12][14]. - The company has experienced rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.3% for baby diapers and 30.6% for sanitary napkins since 2022 [14]. Market Position - Leshu Shi holds a leading market share in Africa, with 20.3% in the baby diaper segment and 15.6% in the sanitary napkin segment, positioning it as a dominant player in the local market [14]. - The company has established a strong local presence with eight production facilities and 51 production lines across Africa, enabling it to maintain competitive pricing [14]. Strategic Approach - The company employs a low-cost strategy to cater to local consumers, with an average price of 8.29 cents (approximately 0.59 yuan) per baby diaper in 2024, making its products accessible to a broader audience [14]. - Leshu Shi's success is attributed to its localized production model, which helps reduce costs and meet the specific needs of the African market [14][19]. Industry Context - The article highlights a broader trend of Chinese companies successfully entering international markets, particularly in Africa, where demand for affordable consumer goods is growing [16][19]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a shift from merely offering lower prices to focusing on product innovation and meeting local consumer needs [19].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market, with a steady growth trend observed in the first quarter of 2025 [5][69]. Core Insights - The FMCG market in China is experiencing a recovery, with a GDP growth rate of 5.4% and an increase in urban disposable income by 4.9% in the first quarter of 2025 [6][69]. - Consumer purchasing behavior is shifting towards smaller, more frequent purchases, reflecting a trend towards convenience and emotional value in products [11][69]. - Domestic products are gaining traction, while imported products face challenges due to declining prices and changing consumer preferences [70][69]. - The growth of the out-of-home consumption market is notable, particularly during festive periods, indicating a need for brands to focus on specific consumption scenarios [71][69]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The FMCG market is showing signs of recovery with a growth rate of 4.2% year-on-year as of March 2025 [6][8]. - The overall market sentiment is positive, with food and daily chemical products accelerating in sales compared to the previous quarter [8][69]. Consumer Behavior - There is a notable trend of small-sized product purchases, with a 25.1% increase in small specifications [12][69]. - The frequency of purchases has increased by 6.3%, indicating a shift towards fragmented purchasing channels and diverse consumption scenarios [15][69]. Product Categories - Food and beverage categories are performing well, with food sales up by 4.5% and beverages by 6.1%, while dairy products are under pressure with a decline of 3.0% [11][69]. - The average purchase price for imported products has decreased by 7.6%, leading to a decline in household spending on these items [19][70]. Retail Channels - The modern retail channel is experiencing a bifurcation, with traditional supermarkets and convenience stores adapting to consumer needs [24][71]. - E-commerce continues to grow, with platforms like Douyin leading in penetration rates and purchase frequency [31][69]. Out-of-Home Consumption - The out-of-home consumption market is thriving, with significant growth during the Spring Festival, highlighting the importance of targeting specific consumer scenarios [71][69]. - Brands are encouraged to enhance their presence in various out-of-home settings, such as snack shops and entertainment venues, to effectively reach consumers [43][71]. Demographic Trends - The rise of single-person households is influencing consumption patterns, with a focus on self-enjoyment and convenience [54][71]. - Brands need to adapt their strategies to cater to the unique preferences of single households, emphasizing emotional value and efficient products [71][69].

Summary of Hengan International Conference Call Company Overview - Hengan International reported a 16% year-on-year decline in operating profit to 3.4 billion yuan and a 48% drop in net profit to 2.3 billion yuan for 2024, with earnings per share approximately 2.015 yuan. Despite challenges, the company maintained a stable earnings per share of 0.4 yuan, with an annual earnings ratio of 40.8% [2][3][4]. Key Business Segments 1. **Zijin Business Segment** - Sales decreased by 2.4% to 13.4 billion yuan, while sales volume increased by 2%, leading to market share expansion. Increased promotional expenses over 30% resulted in a nearly 5% price drop [2][4]. 2. **Sanitary Napkin Business** - Revenue fell by 8% to 5.71 billion yuan, but a high-end strategy maintained a gross margin of 63.7% [2][4][5]. 3. **Diaper Business** - The diaper segment showed a slight growth of 0.5%, with high-end products now accounting for 44% of sales, boosting the gross margin from 38.1% to 45.4% [2][5]. Financial Performance - Total sales and administrative expenses rose by 40 million yuan to 5.1 billion yuan, with the expense ratio increasing from 21.3% to 22.5% due to brand promotion and employee costs, alongside a relative increase in expenses due to declining sales [2][6]. - Cash flow remained robust, with cash on hand at 18.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 700 million yuan year-on-year, while debt reduced by 1.1 billion yuan to 13.1 billion yuan, resulting in a net cash flow of 5.8 billion yuan, an increase of 400 million yuan [2][7]. Market Outlook - For 2025, the sanitary products market is expected to remain competitive, with limited potential for further increases in promotional expenses. Raw material costs are anticipated to stabilize, and the diaper business is expected to improve through high-end products, although no significant improvements are seen in the sanitary napkin sector [4][8][9]. Production Capacity and Utilization - Hengan's production capacity for household paper reached 1.62 million tons in 2024, with a utilization rate exceeding 80%. The company plans to expand capacity in Guangdong and Hubei to meet growing demand [2][10][19]. E-commerce and Retail Channels - In new retail channels, B2B e-commerce accounts for nearly 50%, while B2C channels make up about 30%. The remaining 20% is from retail centers and community group purchases [2][21]. Promotional Strategies - Promotional expenses increased in 2024 to combat fierce competition and boost brand promotion, leading to a recovery in specific channel sales. The company aims to maintain market share and promote long-term growth through stable promotional investments [2][14][26]. Challenges and Competitor Landscape - The company faced challenges from competitors engaging in aggressive promotional activities, reflecting intensified market competition. Despite not being directly affected by negative industry events, Hengan has paused marketing activities to address consumer sentiment [2][13][28][29]. Conclusion - Hengan International is navigating a challenging market environment with a focus on high-end product strategies and maintaining cash flow stability. The outlook for 2025 suggests continued competition, particularly in the sanitary products sector, with a strategic emphasis on e-commerce and promotional management to sustain market presence and profitability [2][8][30].

暴利行业持续分化洗牌。 作者 | 贝壳XY 编辑 | 小白 正所谓，爱美之心，人皆有之。如今，美容护理已越发融入人们的日常生活中，其市场需求持续扩 大。国家统计局数据显示，我国化妆品类零售总额在过去二十多年里呈现稳步提升，2023年达到4,14 2亿元，较2011年增长接近3倍。 但2024年1-11月的情况却有些不同，化妆品类零售总额罕见出现负增长，同比下滑了1.3%，莫非化妆 品生意不好做了？ （来源：Choice终端，制表：市值风云APP） 这组数据背后，其实意味着两层含义，其一是化妆品需求的小幅减少，其二则是行业内卷越发严重。 消费需求越发向头部品牌集中，质量不佳、规模较小、生产不良的尾部企业正逐渐被淘汰出局，一场 席卷整个行业的大洗牌或许正在进行。 动荡过后，仍能留在牌桌上的企业必定各有各的看家本领，今天我们便从美容护理板块前十大市值公 司来一探究竟。 参考申万行业分类及截至2024年12月31日的市值排名，前十大公司分别为爱美客（300896.SZ）、珀 莱雅（603605.SH）、华熙生物（688363.SH）、稳健医疗（300888.SZ）、锦波生物（832982.BJ）、 贝泰妮（30095 ...