Group 1 - The report indicates that the central bank's operations have been relatively proactive, leading to fluctuations in the bond market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising above 3800 points, marking a new high. This has resulted in a noticeable stock-bond effect, causing the bond market to weaken and fund net values to decline, triggering redemption indicators [1][10]. - Credit bond yields have generally risen, with most credit spreads widening. Specifically, the yields on 1-year short-term bonds, 4-5 year AA-rated industrial bonds, and 15-year medium-term notes have passively narrowed, while 9-10 year municipal bonds and 3-4 year insurance subordinated bonds have shown relatively weak performance [1][10]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the net asset value of medium- to long-term pure bond funds fell by 16.18 basis points on August 18, triggering a redemption signal. The cumulative decline for the week was 13.5 basis points for medium- to long-term pure bond funds and 3.91 basis points for short-term pure bond funds [2][12]. - Fund selling of credit bonds was significant, with net sales concentrated in 1-3 year, 3-5 year, 7-10 year, and over 10-year categories, totaling net sales of 186 billion, 106 billion, 204 billion, and 62 billion respectively. In contrast, wealth management products continued to net buy credit bonds, particularly short-term bonds within 3 years, with a total net purchase of 185 billion [3][18]. Group 3 - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious, with expectations of seasonal headwinds from August to October. The current economic fundamentals have not shown significant improvement, and the central bank's stance remains supportive. The bond market is in a phase of adjustment rather than a trend reversal [4][31]. - The report suggests that there are structural accumulation opportunities amidst the adjustments. The widening of credit spreads across most categories, except for certain AA-rated and 15-year bonds, has improved the cost-effectiveness of credit bond allocations. It is recommended to avoid long-term credit bonds for trading purposes in the short term and to focus on the cost-effectiveness of medium- to short-term bonds [4][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The science - innovation bonds still have relative value, especially the inter - bank science - innovation bonds. The scale of science - innovation bond funds is expected to have significant room for improvement, and the total scale of science - innovation bond ETFs focusing on high - grade corporate bonds may reach 139.4 billion yuan this year. The current valuation of science - innovation bonds is not expensive, and the inter - bank science - innovation medium - term notes are relatively more recommended [3][4]. - The premium and discount of science - innovation bond ETFs will bring redemption and arbitrage opportunities. When the premium or discount amplitude exceeds 0.245%, there may be certain arbitrage space. In the short - term rapid bear market of credit bonds, ETFs are expected to be better bottom - fishing tools [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Features and Yield Levels of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs - The first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs have made the yield of component bonds about 7BP lower than that of ordinary corporate bonds on average. These ETFs are an important tool for regulators to support science - innovation bonds this year. With their establishment and the increase in shares, they directly benefit the performance of component bonds and indirectly benefit other exchange - listed bonds of the same issuer. The component bonds of the science - innovation bond index tracked by the first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs are all high - grade public - offering science - innovation corporate bonds listed on the exchange, so these bonds have performed well recently [4][6]. - As of July 15, the component bonds of the benchmark market - making credit bond index were 6.1BP lower than ordinary corporate bonds, the component bonds of the science - innovation bond index were 7BP lower than ordinary corporate bonds, and the general corporate bonds that were component bonds of both indexes were 12.2BP lower than ordinary corporate bonds [4]. 3.2 Comparison of Different Indexes and Bonds - There is a large overlap in the underlying bonds of the first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs and the first batch of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs. There are about 254 bonds included in both the AAA benchmark market - making credit bond index and the three AAA science - innovation bond indexes, with a total scale of 527.7 billion yuan, accounting for about 50% of the total scale of both indexes [7]. - The yield of science - innovation bond index component bonds is significantly lower than that of non - component corporate bonds, and the yield of science - innovation bonds that are component bonds of both types of indexes is even lower. Also, the yield of science - innovation bond index component bonds is lower than that of the same - issuer science - innovation medium - term notes [12]. 3.3 Investment Value of Science - Innovation Bonds - From the perspective of physical bonds, science - innovation bonds still have relative value, and investors are advised to pay more attention to inter - bank science - innovation bonds. The scale of science - innovation bond funds is expected to continue to rise. The current interest rate of science - innovation bonds is slightly higher than that of green bonds, so science - innovation bonds are expected to outperform other bonds in the future [15]. - The yield of science - innovation medium - term notes significantly exceeds that of science - innovation corporate bonds, and as science - innovation bond funds are expected to include inter - bank science - innovation bonds in their investment scope, inter - bank science - innovation bonds may outperform exchange - listed science - innovation bonds in the future [18]. 3.4 Investment Opportunities of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs - The premium and discount of science - innovation bond ETFs will bring two types of investment opportunities at the ETF level: redemption and arbitrage, and discount regression trading. The redemption and arbitrage cost is about 0.245%, so when the premium or discount amplitude of science - innovation bond ETFs exceeds 0.245%, there may be certain arbitrage space. The first batch of science - innovation bond ETFs had a small premium and discount amplitude on the listing day, so it is expected to be difficult to realize arbitrage for the time being [19][22]. - In the short - term rapid bear market of credit bonds, ETFs are expected to be better bottom - fishing tools. It is recommended that investors participate in bottom - fishing opportunities on the right side [4].

Core Conclusions - The communication industry is experiencing a dual increase in performance and valuation within the computing power sector, which remains the most certain direction for investment [1][5][9]. Communication Industry Insights - The communication sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 7.56%, ranking first among 31 industries [5]. - Key stocks such as NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang reported impressive half-year earnings forecasts, driven by significant growth in AI demand [5][8]. - The sub-sectors showing the highest gains include optical devices and modules (+9.59%), temperature control equipment (+8.59%), and power equipment (+8.25%) [6]. Investment Strategy - Focus on companies with high growth certainty in the computing power sector, particularly in optical modules and copper interconnects [9]. - The performance of major computing power companies indicates a sustained high demand for AI computing resources, with significant investments expected in data centers and computing leasing [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in the computing power supply chain, highlighting the expansion of the Ascend industry chain and its positive impact on related companies [9]. Market Trends - The upcoming earnings reports are crucial for assessing the valuation alignment and performance of high-growth sectors [3][19]. - The North Exchange market is expected to maintain structural activity driven by policy support and industrial upgrades, although individual stock differentiation and external economic disturbances remain risks [19][23]. Fixed Income Insights - The first batch of 10 sci-tech bond ETFs has seen rapid growth, with total assets exceeding 88 billion yuan, indicating high trading activity [13][14]. - The current yield spreads for these ETFs are at historically low levels, suggesting limited room for further compression [14][15]. Key News and Developments - Meta is building the "Prometheus" AI supercomputing cluster, expected to reach 1GW of computing power by 2026, while Google DeepMind has introduced a new architecture that significantly enhances processing speed [8][9]. - The establishment of the China Yajiang Group marks a significant development in the industry, reflecting ongoing governmental support for technological innovation [18].

【导读】首批 10 只科创债 ETF 正式获批，或很快进入发行 中国基金报记者 方丽 陆慧婧 距离上报仅过了 10 个交易日，首批科创债 ETF 闪电获批。 7 月 2 日，包括易方达、华夏、南方、广发、富国、博时、嘉实、招商、鹏华、景顺长城在 内的 10 家头部基金公司旗下的首批科创债 ETF 拿到"准生证"。 中国基金报记者了解到，正式获批之后，首批 10 只科创债 ETF 或快速发布招募说明书等文 件，最快于 7 月 7 日进入发售。 据业内人士透露，首批科创债 ETF 或设置单只 30 亿元发行上限，目前市场反馈热烈，部分 产品有望实现"一日售罄"。 首批 10 只科创债 ETF 正式获批 今年以来规模呈现指数级增长的信用债 ETF 市场，又迎来重磅创新产品。 证监会网站显示， 6 月 18 日， 10 家头部基金公司集体上报首批科创债 ETF 。仅隔了 10 个工作日， 7 月 2 日，首批科创债 ETF 集体收到证监会批复，准予注册。这是继年初首批 基准做市信用债 ETF 推出后的又一类信用债创新产品。 从跟踪指数标的来看， 10 只科创债 ETF 中，有 6 只跟踪中证 AAA 科技创新公司债指 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the long-term positive trend in the military industry due to escalating great power competition and increased defense spending in response to regional tensions [7][17][20] - The report highlights the significant growth in the scale of credit bond ETFs, with a total scale of 1,066 billion yuan as of June 20, 2025, reflecting a substantial increase since March [2][34] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in low-valued newly issued sci-tech bonds, suggesting that there is still room for exploration in the primary market [4][37] Group 1: Credit Bond ETF Insights - The expansion pace of index constituent bonds is significantly slower than the growth of credit bond ETF scale, with the scale increasing by 777 billion yuan since March [2][34] - The report notes that the duration of Shenzhen credit bond ETFs is 3.05 years, while Shanghai credit bond ETFs have a duration of 4.11 years, indicating a shift in demand towards mid to long-term credit bonds [3][35] - The report suggests that the low valuation transactions in constituent bonds are becoming more prominent, particularly for those with larger outstanding scales and stable valuations [2][34] Group 2: Military Industry Insights - The military sector experienced a decline recently, with the defense industry index dropping by 2.39% in the week of June 15-20, 2025, underperforming the broader market [8][19] - The report highlights the successful launch of the Zhongxing 9C satellite and the showcasing of advanced military equipment at the Paris Air Show, including the J-35A stealth fighter [8][19] - The report indicates that the ongoing international military dynamics underscore the importance of national defense construction, with a focus on advanced technology and informationization in modern warfare [20]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 高层密集调研，聚焦哪些问题？ ——政策周观察第 35 期 近一周，国务院高层密集在地方考察调研，关注方向如下： （一）经济：关注基建、"以旧换新"、外贸、经济大省"挑大梁"。 6 月 16 日至 18 日，总理在江苏调研，涉及基建（要求高标准推进工程建设）、 消费品"以旧换新"效果、外贸（详细询问中国和中亚国家经贸合作情况）。 并指出，"江苏经济底子好实力强，也有更高的发展要求……更好发挥经济大 省挑大梁作用，为全国发展大局多作贡献"。 6 月 17 日至 18 日，副总理何立峰在山东调研外经贸工作，"深入了解企业接 单、生产、技术创新和开拓国际市场情况，听取企业主要关切诉求"。 （二）产业：聚焦科技、新质生产力；以及平台经济监管 6 月 16 日至 18 日，总理在江苏调研江苏汇智高端工程机械创新中心有限公司、 深地科学与工程云龙湖实验室、南京原子制造研究所，提及工程机械、技术装 备、人工智能、清洁能源、未来科技和产业发展等领域。 6 月 15 日至 17 日，国务院副总理张国清在广东调研先后来到宝钢湛江钢铁有 限公司、巴斯夫一体化基地（广东）有限公司和粤港澳 ...