市场主流观点汇总 2025/12/23 报告说明 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/12/19 | | 2025/12/15 | 至 | 2025/12/19 | | | 焦煤 | 1108.00 | 焦煤 | | | 9.00% | | | PTA | 4882.00 | PTA | | 5.81% | | | | 多晶硅 | 60245.00 | ...

11月25日，央视新闻报道称，乌克兰已原则同意美国提出的和平协议，虽然还有一些细节条款需要进一 步商讨。这一进展引起了广泛关注，特别是国际油价也因此大幅下跌。接下来，我们来看看这份协议是 如何从28条缩减到19条的。最初，美国媒体在11月20日曝出了特朗普政府提出的28点计划，其中包括要 求俄罗斯与乌克兰、欧洲签署互不侵犯协议，乌克兰不能加入北约等内容。然而，乌克兰方面对28点计 划中的一些条款并不接受，欧洲方面也认为该计划过于偏向俄罗斯。因此，大家普遍认为，达成协议将 非常困难。 欧洲方面，英国、法国、德国提出了修订版计划。他们认为领土问题应该等战后再协商，并希望乌克兰 能得到类似北约第五条的安全保障，同时反对美国处置俄罗斯冻结资产的方案。德国总理默茨预判，11 月27日前很难达成最终协议，最多只能取得小规模的进展。显然，欧洲国家有自己的顾虑，毕竟俄乌冲 突离欧洲非常近，他们不希望最终得到一个不符合自己利益的结果。 但到了11月23日，美乌双方代表团在瑞士日内瓦展开了谈判。谈判后，28条计划被压缩为19条。关键的 争议问题，如领土问题和乌克兰的安全保障等，依然没有解决，留待美乌两国总统最后决定。原本大家 以 ...

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Gold closed at 999.80 with a weekly increase of 10.90%, silver at 12249.00 with a 10.53% increase, and polycrystalline silicon at 52340.00 with a 6.89% increase. - Crude oil closed at 432.60 with a 6.34% decrease, glass at 1095.00 with a 9.28% decrease, and PTA at 4402.00 with a 2.91% decrease [2]. 2.2 A - shares - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4514.23 with a 2.22% decrease, the CSI 500 Index at 7016.07 with a 5.17% decrease, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index at 2967.77 with a 0.24% decrease [2]. 2.3 Overseas Stocks - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22679.97 with a 3.24% increase, the S&P 500 Index at 6664.01 with a 1.70% increase, and the Hang Seng Index at 25247.10 with a 3.97% decrease [2]. 2.4 Bonds - The yield of the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond was 1.50 with an increase of 1.25 bp, the 10 - year was 1.84 with a 0.5 bp decrease, and the 5 - year was 1.60 with a 0.13 bp increase [2]. 2.5 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index closed at 98.56 with a 0.27% decrease, the US dollar central parity rate at 7.09 with a 0.14% decrease, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate at 1.17 with a 0.24% increase [2]. 3. Commodity Views 3.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, Fed rate - cut expectations, potential RMB appreciation, stable market expectations, and improved domestic M1 growth [4]. - Bearish logic: Profit - taking in the technology sector, low risk appetite before Sino - US trade resolution, limited policy stimulus, and reduced A - share trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Weak economic data, loose liquidity, and market risk aversion [4]. - Bearish logic: Potential incremental policies, unimplemented domestic rate cuts, and possible recovery of risk assets [4]. 3.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, approaching break - even price, undervalued fundamentals, and US strategic oil purchase [5]. - Bearish logic: Saudi production increase, EU's call for end of war, rising Russian exports, high US inventory, and expected supply surplus [5]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Limited production potential, policy plans, low import data, and stable spot prices [5]. - Bearish logic: Increased Malaysian production, falling oil prices, low cost - effectiveness, and weak market sentiment [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Fed rate - cut expectations, low supply, seasonal demand, long - term demand growth, and policy support [6]. - Bearish logic: Trade friction risks, hedging pressure, low market attention, and weak spot trading [6]. 3.5 Chemical Sector - **Glass** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Positive sentiment during meetings, cost support, reduced inventory, and policy expectations [6]. - Bearish logic: High intermediate inventory, unclear production - cut policies, low orders, and weak real - estate data [6]. 3.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Geopolitical tensions, Fed rate - cut expectations, repeated conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced US banking concerns, short - term profit - taking, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Safety inspections, supply disruptions, high iron - water production, and positive market sentiment [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced steel - mill profits, stable supply, weak demand, and unclear trade friction [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity futures, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Commodities**: PTA, ethylene glycol, palm oil, PVC, and crude oil had positive weekly price changes with rates of 3.22%, 1.41%, 1.40%, 1.31%, and 1.13% respectively from August 18 to August 22, 2025. While silver, methanol, gold, copper, aluminum, corn, pig, iron ore, soybean meal, rebar, polysilicon, glass, and coking coal had negative changes, with coking coal dropping 5.53% [2] - **A - shares**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 had positive weekly price changes of 4.18%, 3.87%, and 3.38% respectively [2] - **Overseas Stocks**: The FTSE 100, France CAC40, and Hang Seng Index had positive changes of 2.00%, 0.58%, and 0.27% respectively, while the Nasdaq Index and Nikkei 225 had negative changes of - 0.58% and - 1.72% respectively [2] - **Bonds**: The 5 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year Chinese government bonds had positive price changes of 4.20%, 2.21%, and 1.83% respectively [2] - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate had a positive change of 0.16%, while the US dollar central parity rate and the US dollar index had negative changes of - 0.07% and - 0.12% respectively [2] 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, relaxation of Shanghai's real - estate purchase restrictions, expectations of further stimulus policies, central bank's net liquidity injection, and increased trading volume and record - high margin trading balance. Bearish factors included weaker - than - expected economic data, cooling effect of earnings reports, over - heated small - cap stock trading, and short - term correction risk after a rapid rise [4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 4 were bearish, and 2 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, lower - than - expected social financing and credit data, and the central bank's clear attitude to maintain market liquidity. Bearish factors included the strong stock market, seasonal issuance peak in the third quarter, more sensitive stock market to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and weak expectation of further policy easing [4] 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Bullish factors included the Fed's dovish signal, unexpected decline in US crude oil inventory, seasonal rebound in US gasoline crack spread, and potential increase in sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors included weak euro - zone macro - economy, OPEC +'s planned production increase, significant production growth in Latin American countries, and weakening of crude oil calendar spread [5] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors included lower - than - expected US biodiesel exemption, slow inventory growth in Malaysia, low - inventory environment before the production - reduction period, and declining inventory in Indonesia. Bearish factors included the Indonesian palm - oil industry's call to re - evaluate the B50 plan, rising inventory in China, short - term correction risk after a sharp rise, and a significant increase in Indonesia's palm - oil production in June [5] 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors included Powell's dovish remarks, improved macro - sentiment, tight overseas mine supply, and expected increase in downstream restocking demand. Bearish factors included uncertain impact of tariffs on demand, increased non - US supply due to US copper tariff policy, stable but weak restocking demand at high prices, and increased domestic electrolytic copper production in July [6] 3.2.5 Chemicals Sector - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were neutral. Bullish factors included real - estate policy - driven demand improvement, traditional demand peak season in September, and enhanced bottom - valuation support. Bearish factors included lower spot transaction prices, large premium of the 01 contract, increasing inventory pressure of float - glass factories, and weakening cost support from coal price decline [6] 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors included Powell's dovish speech, US economic stagflation expectation, and mid - term de - dollarization logic. Bearish factors included the market having priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation, progress in trade negotiations, and lack of strong upward momentum [7] 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors included the eighth round of coke price increase, high expected molten - iron output, stricter safety supervision before early September, and a coal - mine accident in Fujian. Bearish factors included increased Mongolian coal imports, weakened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, expected production cuts by downstream steel mills and coking plants at the end of August, and the opening of the Australian coal import window [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price changes and the corresponding multi - and short - term logics[2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price Data - **Commodities**: From August 11 to August 15, 2025, palm oil had the highest weekly increase of 5.11% at a closing price of 9460.00; while gold had the largest weekly decline of 1.52% at a closing price of 775.80. Other commodities like polysilicon, bean meal also showed varying degrees of increase or decrease[3]. - **Stocks**: A - shares (CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), overseas stocks (Nikkei 225, S&P 500, etc.) generally showed an upward trend. For example, CSI 500 increased by 3.88%[3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese 10 - year government bonds increased by 2.36%, while 2 - year government bonds decreased by 0.26%[3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar increased by 0.54%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.43%[3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included increased trading volume in the stock market, favorable policies, and improved liquidity. Bearish factors were potential over - heating in some indices and high A - share valuations[5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were loose funds, central bank's net injection, and weak economic data. Bearish factors were volatile long - term bonds and strong stock market performance[5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions, 2 were bullish, 4 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included high - load operation of US refineries and expected end of OPEC+ production increase. Bearish factors were the progress of US - Russia summit and the slowdown of Asian oil demand[6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were strong export data and low inventory in some regions. Bearish factors were the call for policy re - evaluation in Indonesia and increased domestic inventory[6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum**: Among 7 institutions, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved macro - policies and low domestic inventory. Bearish factors were US tariff expansion and unstable trade situation[7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Methanol**: Among 8 institutions, 5 were bearish and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were policy support and cost increase. Bearish factors were high import volume and low demand in the off - season[7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 8 institutions, 1 was bearish and 7 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were expected Fed rate cuts and economic data deterioration. Bearish factors were high PPI data and improved risk appetite[8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were increased iron - water production and decreased global shipments. Bearish factors were increased port inventory and weak demand for steel products[8].

Market Data Summary - The report presents the closing prices and weekly price changes of various assets as of August 1, 2025, compared to July 28, 2025. Commodities like crude oil had a 2.92% increase, while most others, such as palm oil, soybean meal, and copper, experienced declines. A - shares, overseas stocks, and bonds also mostly saw negative changes, with exceptions like the US dollar index and US dollar mid - price showing increases [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The report collected views from 8 institutions, with 3 bullish, 2 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors include the upcoming full - scale opening of childcare subsidy applications, the World Artificial Intelligence Conference boosting the tech sector, central bank liquidity injection, and the extension of the tariff buffer period. Bearish factors involve the lack of new policy surprises in the Politburo meeting, reduced A - share trading volume, the Fed's unchanged interest rate, a decrease in ETF shares tracking the CSI 300, and a decline in the July manufacturing PMI [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Seven institutions' views were collected, with 0 bullish, 1 bearish, and 6 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts, the unchanged expectation of loose monetary policy, stable - growth policies not exceeding expectations, and the tax - free advantage of existing bonds. Bearish factors include the taxation of new bonds reducing their attractiveness, positive market risk appetite diverting funds to stocks, and low short - term chasing value [4]. Energy Sector - For crude oil, 8 institutions' views were gathered, with 2 bullish, 3 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are high US refinery operating rates, increased US sanctions on Russian oil, OPEC +'s lower - than - expected production increase, and improved macro sentiment due to a tariff agreement. Bearish factors include lower - than - expected US gasoline consumption, OPEC +'s decision to accelerate production in September, a shift in global oil demand from strong to weak, and a significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data [5]. Agricultural Products Sector - Regarding live hogs, 8 institutions' views were collected, with 1 bullish, 3 bearish, and 4 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are strong expectations of policy - driven capacity reduction, farmers' resistance to price cuts, a slower slaughter pace, and a potential decrease in August supply after an increase in July. Bearish factors are the large supply of heavy hogs, an expected increase in piglet supply from September to the end of the year, high hog inventories, and suppressed demand due to summer and high temperatures [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Eight institutions' views were gathered, with 0 bullish, 5 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are low domestic aluminum ingot inventories, increased weekly production of aluminum strips and foils, improved downstream profits, and moderate inventory accumulation. Bearish factors are weakening macro sentiment, tariff - affected exports to the US, weakening production and orders of aluminum profiles, and supply pressure during the inventory accumulation phase [6]. Chemicals - Soda Ash - Eight institutions' views were collected, with 0 bullish, 5 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are stable downstream demand, downstream inventory reduction and subsequent replenishment needs, and potential short - covering rallies. Bearish factors are long - term over - capacity issues, a return to fundamental trading due to weakening macro sentiment, reduced demand expectations for photovoltaic glass, and low motivation for producers to cut production [6]. Precious Metals - Gold - Seven institutions' views were collected, with 4 bullish, 0 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are concerns about economic recession due to revised US non - farm payroll data, concerns about monetary policy independence from White House personnel changes, increased safe - haven demand due to a falling US dollar index and a slumping stock market, a technical breakthrough, and the potential for further upward movement after a long consolidation. Bearish factors are reduced uncertainty from US - Japan and US - EU tariff agreements, a hawkish stance from Powell, and potential further rebounds in the US dollar index [7]. Black Metals - Iron Ore - Eight institutions' views were gathered, with 0 bullish, 3 bearish, and 5 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are high steel mill profit margins, a decline in overseas ore shipments, a decrease in port iron ore inventories, and high hot metal production. Bearish factors are an increase in domestic port arrivals, the fading of anti - cut - throat competition trading, lower - than - expected policy strength from the Politburo meeting, an increase in non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments, and a decrease in daily hot metal production due to adverse weather [7].

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] Market Data Summary Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, commodities like coking coal, glass, and polysilicon had significant price increases, with coking coal rising 35.96%, glass 25.99%, and polysilicon 16.36%. Some commodities like corn, palm oil, and crude oil saw price drops, with corn down 0.13%, palm oil 0.31%, and crude oil 0.56% [2] A - share Indexes - A - share indexes such as CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 all increased, with CSI 500 rising 3.28%, SSE 50 1.12%, and CSI 300 1.69% [2] Overseas Stock Indexes - Overseas stock indexes including Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 also rose, with Nikkei 225 up 4.11%, Hang Seng Index 2.27%, and S&P 500 1.46% [2] Bond Market - Chinese government bonds of different maturities showed price increases, with 5 - year bonds rising 5.91%, 10 - year bonds 4.35%, and 2 - year bonds 3.28% [2] Foreign Exchange Market - The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.99%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.80%, and the US dollar middle - price decreased by 0.11% [2] Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include large - scale infrastructure projects, A - share market trends, and high trading volume. Bearish factors involve profit - taking pressure, regulatory measures, and increased market risk aversion [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include loose monetary policy and potential interest rate cuts. Bearish factors involve the stock - bond seesaw effect and changes in market expectations [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include strong demand in the peak season and supply - side issues. Bearish factors involve high refinery operating rates and seasonal demand changes [5] Agricultural Products Sector Palm Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include policy support and supply - demand imbalances. Bearish factors involve high production and low exports [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include policy support and low inventory. Bearish factors involve macro events and weakening demand [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include policy expectations and inventory changes. Bearish factors involve speculative inventory and weak real - estate demand [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include expected interest rate cuts and increased risk aversion. Bearish factors involve trade negotiation progress and a strong US dollar [7] Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include high iron - water production and price increases in related products. Bearish factors involve regulatory policies and increased supply [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report objectively reflects the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It is based on the research reports publicly released by institutions in the current week, and processes and summarizes the long - short views and trading logics of each futures variety. The closing price data is from last Friday, and the weekly change is the change in the closing price of last Friday compared with the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From July 7th to July 11th, 2025, the commodities with significant weekly increases include coke (6.04%), glass (5.85%), and iron ore (4.30%); while those with decreases include copper (-1.63%), corn (-2.00%), and methanol (-1.21%) [3]. - **A - shares**: The CSI 500 rose 1.96%, the SSE 50 rose 0.60%, and the CSI 300 rose 0.82% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The French CAC40 rose 1.73%, the FTSE 100 rose 1.34%, while the Nasdaq Index fell -0.08%, the S&P 500 fell -0.31%, and the Nikkei 225 fell -0.61% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 2.81%, the 5 - year rose 2.00%, and the 10 - year rose 1.08% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index rose 0.91%, while the US Dollar central parity rate fell -0.08%, and the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate fell -0.74% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views Summary - **Macro - Financial Sector** - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish logics include domestic "anti - involution" boosting market confidence, potential passive position - increasing after index breakthrough; bearish logics include weakened upward momentum at high levels and concerns about policy risks [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 4 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the loose monetary policy and weak inflation environment; bearish factors are the recovery of risk appetite and short - term cooling of interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Energy Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logics are strong US diesel demand and a decline in active drilling rigs; bearish logics are potential impacts of US tariff policies on the global economy and high OPEC+ production in June [5]. - **Agricultural Sector** - **Live Pigs**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors are low slaughter volume and policy regulation; bearish factors are stable sow inventory and weak demand due to hot weather [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logics are tight mine supply and low LME inventory; bearish logics are expected US copper tariff hikes and weak demand in construction and other industries [6]. - **Chemical Sector** - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 5 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the stabilization of the coal market and low short - term valuations; bearish factors are weakening basis, high production rates, and high inventory levels [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector** - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 6 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 0 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logics are the expectation of Fed rate cuts and increased geopolitical uncertainties; bearish logics are low energy prices and potential delays in Fed policy shifts [7]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the first price increase by coke enterprises and high iron - water production; bearish factors are the resumption of coal mine production and weak construction demand [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a strong performance in commodities, with a notable increase in copper prices, while equity markets show a divergence in performance across regions, particularly with European markets outperforming the US and Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Performance - Commodity prices continued to strengthen, with the CRB/Nanhua index rising and the increase in COMEX copper closing at a significant 10.9% [1]. - Equity performance showed increased divergence, with US stocks declining while the dollar strengthened [1]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks exhibited a strong positive correlation with US and Japanese stocks, while A-shares showed a strong negative correlation with Chinese government bonds [1]. Group 2: Equity Markets - European stock markets outperformed those in the US and Japan, with the German DAX and STOXX50 leading the gains, while US stocks experienced a broad pullback [2]. - Emerging markets saw strong performances from Vietnam and South Korea, with the Ho Chi Minh index rising by 5.1% and the Korean Composite Index increasing by 4.0% [2]. - In contrast, other emerging markets like India and Brazil showed weaker performance, with Brazil's IBOVESPA dropping by 3.6% [2]. Group 3: Bond Markets - China's bond market exhibited a "bear flat" pattern, with AAA-rated credit bond yields decreasing in the short term and increasing in the long term [2]. - The US bond market showed a "bear steep" pattern, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield influenced by inflation expectations, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September decreased compared to the previous week [2]. Group 4: Commodities and Currency - Commodity prices continued to rise, with 12 out of 14 types of futures contracts increasing, particularly in copper, coking coal, and silver, while nickel saw a decline of 1.1% [3]. - Since the beginning of the year, copper has shown a cumulative increase of 39.2%, with inventory levels for gold and silver decreasing [3]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.9%, reversing its previous depreciation, while the euro, pound, and yen depreciated against the dollar, although they have appreciated relative to the dollar since the start of the year [3].