2026 年 1 月 18 日 联合研究 光研集萃（2026 年 1 月第 2 期） ——光大周度观点一览 要点 策略周度观点 市场或经历震荡，春节前建议保持稳健。本周出台了一系列对于经济以及金融相 关政策，经济政策方面，结构性降息有望助力经济实现"开门红"，叠加前期相 关政策，一季度经济数据有望稳步回升，不过具体情况可能还要等待数据进一步 披露。同时，金融市场方面的政策也对前期过热的板块有一定的调控。总体来看， 我们认为市场难以保持前期迅速上涨的趋势，未来或许会逐步降温，并且转向震 荡。春节之前建议投资者以稳为主，预计春节之后市场将会有新一轮上行动力。 结构层面上，成长风格与小盘风格通常在春季行情中明显占优，在政策支持之下， 顺周期板块或许将成为未来一段时间内重要方向，建议关注家电、建筑建材、汽 车等方向。成长领域仍然将是中期主线，建议关注基本面更加扎实的半导体产业 链、AI 硬件、新能源等方向。 本周重点行业 1、政策实施进度不及预期；2、市场情绪显著回落；3、经济增速水平不及预期。 作者 策略：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 021-52523806 zhangys@ebscn.co ...

Market Overview - A-shares opened high but closed lower, with the financing margin ratio adjustment cooling the market; Hong Kong stocks rose, driven by AI applications boosting tech stocks[3] - European markets slightly retreated, with energy and resource stocks performing well; US stocks weakened, particularly in tech, while healthcare and resource stocks supported the market[3] Economic Indicators - China's December exports increased by 6.6% year-on-year, significantly above the expected 2.2%, while imports rose by 5.7%, also exceeding expectations of a 0.3% decline[5] - The resilience in non-US exports, particularly in the semiconductor and automotive sectors, contributed to the stronger export performance[5] Commodity and Forex Markets - Safe-haven demand lifted metal prices, with gold, silver, tin, and copper reaching new highs; oil prices fell nearly 3% in early Asian trading due to geopolitical tensions easing[4] - The US Treasury yields declined by 2-5 basis points, with the yield curve flattening amid increased demand for safe assets[4] Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones closed at 49,149.6, down 0.1%; S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 6,926.6; Nasdaq dropped 1.0% to 23,471.8[7] - In Latin America, the São Paulo Stock Exchange index rose by 2.0%, while the S&P Mexico IPC index increased by 1.6%[8] Sector Highlights - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.56%, driven by tech stocks, particularly in AI applications, with Alibaba Health surging by 18.9%[10] - The energy sector in the US saw a notable increase of 2.26%, while the non-core consumer goods sector led declines with a drop of 1.75%[8] Fixed Income Market - The primary market saw $12.6 billion in investment-grade bonds issued, with strong demand reflected in an average oversubscription of 5.6 times[30] - Asian investment-grade bonds showed positive sentiment, with spreads generally narrowing due to strong buying interest[30]

人工智能重塑后的搜索引擎，需要一套新的搜索营销思路，这是我们在过去文章中反复提到过的观点。 而今这种需求逐渐变得越来越急迫，因为消费者正在大规模地从传统搜索引擎转向各类 AI 对话＆问答产品。凯捷咨询公司（Capgemini）的调查显示， 2024 年，就有超过半数（58%）的消费者已使用人工智能工具取代传统搜索引擎来获取产品/服务推荐，这一比例较 2023 年的 25% 显著上升。 它所指向的议题是，当通过 AI 自然对话直接获取答案或建议成为主流，传统 SEO 的注意力覆盖是否会出现盲区。 这种变化催生了一个新的营销课题：GEO，即生成式引擎优化（Generative Engine Optimization）。它关注品牌信息能否被 AI 理解、引用，并整合进最终 答案里。AI 成为直接顾问，优化目标就从"被看到"变成了"被想到"和"被推荐"。 这种新一代的搜索方式又与消费意愿紧密关联。Adobe 2025 年初对 5000 名美国消费者进行的调查显示，39% 的受访者已使用生成式人工智能进行网上购 物，另有 53% 的受访者计划年内使用。在 2024 年末大促"网络星期一"当天，来自生成式人工智能的流量同 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 每 周 投 资 早 参 2026 年 1 月 12 日 沪指站上 4100 点，两市成交超 3 万亿 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五 A 股市场上演强势上涨行情，早盘沪指便顺利突破 4100 点关键关口， 创下近期新高。尽管上午尾盘时段出现短暂小幅回落，但午后多头力量再度集结 发力，推动指数震荡上行并刷新日内高点，最终稳稳站在 4100 点上方。 与指数强势表现相伴的是成交量的增长，上周五两市成交额突破 3 万亿元大 关，这一量级仅在 2024 年 10 月 8 日（3.45 万亿元）和 2025 年 8-9 月期间少数 几次出现过。成交放大，一方面表明市场资金活跃度大幅提升，增量资金入场意 愿强烈；另一方面也反映出市场分歧开始显现，多空博弈加剧，为后续走势埋下 波动隐患。 当前市场已形成"成交释放—指数大涨"的正向反馈循环，这一格局对行情 延续具有重要支撑。上周五指数上涨的同时成交量也跟着放大，进一步强化了这 种良性循环： ...

2026 十大研判 20260105 2026 年 A 股市场将在康波萧条期迎来繁荣，大盘指数大概率创新高。 建议关注有色金属、新消费/大众消费、高端制造以及国产算力链条。 Q&A 2026 年中国经济和股市的核心逻辑是什么？ 2026 年中国经济和股市的核心逻辑是人民币汇率升值驱动，实体部门的现金 流量表已经改善，资产负债表也有望得到修复。随着美联储重启降息，跨境资 本将加速回流中国，这将带来 PPI 和 CPI 相继走出通缩。2025 年只是牛市的 前菜，而 2026 年将迎来估值和盈利的戴维斯双击。预计美联储可能会进行量 化宽松（QE），而中国央行也可能实施大规模化债政策，从而快速修复实体部 门的资产负债表。 为什么认为 2026 年是中国回归繁荣的起点？ 2018 年，中国人均 GDP 突破 1 万美元，正式进入工业化成熟期。这一阶段类 似于 1,945 年的美国和 1975 年的日本，制造业拥有强劲的对外出口能力，可 以赚取大量国民财富并改善内需消费景气。因此，从 2019 年开始，中国就进 入了康波萧条期作为追赶国的繁荣期。然而，由于美联储激进加息导致跨境资 本外流，以及房价暴跌导致居民和企业部门 ...

- Model Name: Timing System Model; Model Construction Idea: The model uses the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) to distinguish the overall market environment[2][6][11] - Model Construction Process: The model calculates the distance between the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6298 points and the 120-day moving average at 6090 points. The difference between the two lines is 3.41%, and the absolute value of the distance continues to be greater than 3%, indicating that the market is in an upward trend[2][6][11] - Model Evaluation: The model effectively identifies the market's upward trend, providing a positive signal for market timing[2][6][11] - Model Name: Industry Trend Allocation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model identifies industry trends and allocates based on medium-term reversal expectations and sector performance[2][5][7] - Model Construction Process: The model signals to focus on service consumption sectors such as tourism and media based on medium-term reversal expectations. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on AI applications and commercial aerospace. The industry trend model shows that the communication, industrial metals, and energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - Model Evaluation: The model provides clear guidance on sector allocation, helping investors to focus on promising sectors[2][5][7] - Model Name: Position Management Model; Model Construction Idea: The model suggests stock allocation based on valuation indicators and short-term trends[5][7] - Model Construction Process: The model uses the PE and PB ratios of the WIND All A Index. The PE ratio is near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate level. Based on these indicators and short-term trends, the model suggests an 80% stock allocation for absolute return products[5][7] - Model Evaluation: The model provides a balanced approach to stock allocation, considering both valuation and market trends[5][7] Model Backtest Results - Timing System Model, Moving Average Distance: 3.41%[2][6][11] - Timing System Model, Market Trend Line: 6262 points[2][6][11] - Timing System Model, Profit Effect: 2.71%[2][6][11] - Position Management Model, PE Ratio: 90th percentile[5][7] - Position Management Model, PB Ratio: 50th percentile[5][7] - Position Management Model, Stock Allocation: 80%[5][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the shift in policy focus from "expansion" to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," highlighting the importance of development quality in the economic context of 2026 [3][12][13] - The report anticipates a reasonable recovery in prices, with expectations that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will gradually narrow its year-on-year decline and eventually turn positive in 2026, supported by a combination of macroeconomic policies [4][14] - Three key supports for corporate profit recovery in 2026 are identified: the emergence of new productive forces as a growth engine, the acceleration of anti-involution policies, and resilient overseas demand contributing to strong export performance [4][15][16] Group 2 - The report suggests that the A-share market will increasingly correlate with fundamental performance in 2026, with a focus on profit recovery driven by price increases and structural improvements [5][17] - Historical patterns indicate that the A-share market will initially favor growth stocks, followed by cyclical stocks, and eventually consumer stocks, with three main investment themes: technology growth sectors led by AI, industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, and high-demand export sectors [5][17]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline last Friday, with nearly 4,000 stocks rising, indicating a structural adjustment and redistribution of funds among sectors and market capitalizations [2][5][15] - The technology sector showed increased internal differentiation, with previously popular segments like computing hardware and storage chips declining, while AI applications and the new energy sector performed well [2][6][15] Short-term Market Dynamics - The market is expected to oscillate around the 4,000-point mark, reflecting a healthy correction rather than a trend decline, as it digests profit-taking and trapped positions [3][16] - The recent fluctuations are seen as a return to a more balanced market structure rather than a complete shift from growth to value investing [15][16] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious and steady approach, focusing on three main investment lines: 1. Technology growth sectors, including AI, semiconductors, and robotics, with an emphasis on stocks supported by actual or future performance [4][17] 2. High-dividend defensive sectors such as banking, utilities, and transportation, which can provide a safety margin during market volatility [4][17] 3. Cyclical sectors like photovoltaics, batteries, and chemicals, which are expected to benefit from policy changes aimed at reducing competition and improving profitability [4][17] Sector Highlights - The pharmaceutical sector is showing signs of strength, with potential for recovery as it has been lagging in the current market cycle [8] - The AI theme remains active, with significant investment opportunities emerging as the industry evolves and matures [9][10] - The new energy sector is also gaining traction, driven by ongoing demand for lithium, photovoltaics, and energy storage solutions, supported by government policies [11][12] Conclusion - The market is currently in a phase of structural adjustment, with a focus on selective investment in sectors that show resilience and growth potential, particularly in technology and new energy [15][17]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, with implications for various sectors including technology, manufacturing, and commodities. Core Points and Arguments - **Economic Slowdown and Rate Cuts**: The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with weak non-farm employment and inflation data. The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times in Q4 2025, specifically in September, October, and December, with an additional three cuts expected in 2026 [1][2] - **Historical Context of Rate Cuts**: Historical patterns show that recessionary rate cuts (e.g., 1989-1992, 2001-2003, 2007-2008) typically lead to declines in risk assets, while preventive cuts (e.g., 1995-1996, 1998) can boost stock markets and commodities [1][4] - **Current Market Environment**: The current market conditions are likened to those in July 1995, September 1998, and September 2024, suggesting that equity markets, particularly technology stocks, may benefit from increased liquidity [1][5] - **Sector Performance Expectations**: Sectors expected to perform well include technology, manufacturing, and export-oriented industries, particularly those related to AI, robotics, and low-value stocks showing marginal improvement [1][6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Investment Strategy**: The overall market strategy is characterized as a "slow bull market," with rapid gains in July and August expected to moderate in September. Investors are advised to focus on sectors with improving economic conditions, such as upstream metals, chemicals, lithium batteries, and livestock agriculture [1][6] - **Historical Rate Cut Effects**: Specific historical examples illustrate the varying impacts of rate cuts on different asset classes, emphasizing the importance of context in understanding current market dynamics [4][5] - **Focus on Value Stocks**: There is a recommendation to identify and invest in low-value stocks that have shown signs of improvement over the past two quarters, alongside a focus on sectors like military and logistics [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the overall market performance and investment strategies, focusing on sectors such as technology, consumer goods, real estate, and military industries. Core Points and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The market has shown strong performance recently, with indices surpassing 3,400 points. There is a noticeable style rebalancing, with increased discussions around cyclical and consumer sectors. Investors are advised to monitor consumer policies, especially under tariff and export pressures, which may support domestic demand and consumption [3][4]. - **Technology Sector Outlook**: Some technology stocks are perceived as overvalued, and Q1 earnings may not reflect strong performance. Investors are encouraged to focus on structural opportunities rather than withdrawing from the market. Key areas include AI and military sectors, which are expected to perform well in 2025 [4][6][8]. - **Investment Strategy**: In a bull market, it is recommended to maintain positions and consider structural adjustments rather than significant withdrawals. Investors should focus on sectors like military, finance, cyclical, and consumer growth [6][14]. - **Consumer Goods**: The consumer goods sector is seen as attractive, with gradual implementation of domestic demand expansion policies. Some consumer stocks, particularly in Hong Kong, are considered undervalued and worthy of moderate investment [10]. - **Mechanical and Non-ferrous Metals**: These sectors are currently experiencing high demand due to active second-hand housing transactions and supply constraints, making them worthy of attention [11][12]. - **Brokerage Sector**: The brokerage sector is expected to perform well during the earnings season, but its performance may be affected if the A-share market weakens later in the year. Continuous observation of market trends is advised [13]. - **Impact of US Tariffs**: Increased tariffs from the US may prompt China to implement supportive policies for consumption and corporate tax reductions, which could mitigate significant market pullbacks in Q2 [15]. - **Market Dynamics**: The A-share market's mainline performance is significantly influenced by macroeconomic factors. In times of economic downturn, technology growth stocks tend to perform better due to their lower correlation with economic cycles [16]. - **Gold and AI Applications**: Gold has recently reached historical highs, and both gold and AI applications are viewed positively in the current market context [21]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Seasonal Patterns**: There are seasonal patterns in market risk appetite and growth premiums, with the month following the Spring Festival showing the highest offensive win rates. Investors are advised to focus on AI-related sectors during this period [7]. - **Investment Themes**: Emerging themes such as maternal and infant industries and fertility policies are gaining attention, although the immediate impact of new policies may be limited [9]. - **Performance of High vs. Low Valuation Stocks**: Historical data indicates that high P/E stocks tend to underperform during earnings seasons, suggesting a need for caution in high-valuation sectors [18]. - **Trading Factors**: High trading volumes in the TMT sector may indicate overheating, but this does not necessarily signal an end to the market rally if the underlying fundamentals remain strong [19]. - **Technology Stock Switching**: Current trading patterns suggest a potential high-low switching phase in technology stocks, with significant implications for investment strategies [20].