前言 美联储如期降息25个基点本应引发风险资产狂欢，但美元指数却从96.3强势反弹至97.18，黄金应声下 跌，科技股遭遇抛售——降息的"利好"为何变成了部分资产的"利空"？ 当市场从"交易预期"转向"验证事实"，全球资产价格的真正拐点究竟在哪里？投资者又该如何在这场资 金大迁徙中找准方向？ 当鸽派不再那么鸽 2024年12月，美联储终于扣动了降息扳机，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00%-4.25%区间，表面看来，这是 市场期待已久的宽松信号，但魔鬼藏在细节里。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的措辞透露出微妙变化：今年可能还会再降息两次，但明年预计仅降息 一次，而非市场此前预期的两到三次，更值得关注的是，美联储将就业市场风险置于通胀之前，同时继 续缩减资产负债表规模。 这种"降息但不够鸽"的立场立即引发市场剧烈反应，美元指数在决议公布后先跌后涨，从96.3一路反弹 至97.18，其中，美元兑欧元汇率从1.191走强至1.179，展现出令人意外的强势。 10年期美国国债收益率的走势同样耐人寻味，早段下降5个基点至4.00%后，迅速回升至4.09%，目前仍 在4.05%附近徘徊，短端利率下降而长端利率维持不变，收益率 ...

Key Points Summary Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,544, down 1.35% for the day but up 32.33% year-to-date [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 6,271, down 0.99% for the day and up 40.36% year-to-date [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,498, down 1.16% for the day and up 14.31% year-to-date [1] - The Dow Jones Index closed at 46,142, up 0.27% for the day and up 8.46% year-to-date [1] Currency and Commodity Trends - The Renminbi Index is at 96.600, up 0.58% over the last month but down 2.47% over the last six months [2] - Brent crude oil is priced at $67.76 per barrel, up 2.85% over the last month but down 0.51% over the last six months [2] - Gold is priced at $3,668.34 per ounce, up 10.05% over the last month and up 20.86% over the last six months [2] Company News - Alibaba's AliExpress has received conditional approval to form a joint venture with South Korea's Shinsegae [5][14] - Huawei plans to launch its self-developed Ascend 950PR chip in the first quarter of next year [5][16] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission reported that the shareholding of Shankai Holdings is highly concentrated, with 24% held by 20 shareholders [5][17][18] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 231,000, below expectations, indicating a strengthening labor market [5][11] - The Bank of England's interest rate remains at 4.00%, unchanged from the previous period [5][12][13] - Reports indicate that China has terminated its antitrust investigation into Android ahead of U.S.-China talks [5][15] Stock Market Movements - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Hang Seng Index reaching a four-year high before closing lower [5][6] - Semiconductor-related stocks saw gains, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising nearly 9% [5][6] - The A-share market showed weakness, with major indices closing down over 1% [6] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include the Eurozone consumer confidence index and U.S. manufacturing PMI [5][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. Each commodity is given a short - term trend judgment such as "oscillating adjustment", "weakly oscillating", etc. [2][5] - The trend intensity of each commodity is also provided, with values ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), helping investors understand the strength of the expected price trends. [10][14] 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 824.10, down 1.31%. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: It is in an oscillating adjustment phase. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪银2510 was 9808, down 0.97%. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The increase in domestic spot premium restricts price decline. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 79,580, down 1.22%. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: It shows a weakly oscillating trend. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锌主力 was 22045, down 1.05%. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铅主力 was 17145, up 0.26%. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 269,100, down 1.26%. [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20785, down 125. [2][26][28] - **Alumina**: The surplus situation persists. The trend intensity is 0. [2][26][28] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is supported by cost. The trend intensity is 0. [2][26][28] - **Nickel**: The contradictions at the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the ore end. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 120,940, down 850. [2][29][35] - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may oscillate. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of不锈钢主力 was 12,875, down 60. [2][29][35] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production reaches a new high, and inventory is being depleted. It oscillates within a range. The trend intensity is 0. [2][36][39] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short at high prices. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Si2511 was 8,905, down 60. [2][40][42] - **Polysilicon**: The short - term sentiment may cool down. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of PS2511 was 53,205, down 285. [2][40][42] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of 12601 was 804.5, up 1.0. [2][43] - **Rebar**: It oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of RB2601 was 3,147, down 8. [2][45][48] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: It oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of HC2601 was 3,354, down 30. [2][46][48] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of硅铁2511 was 5756, down 10. [2][50][52] - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of锰硅2511 was 5948, down 14. [2][50][52] - **Coke**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of J2601 was 1709, down 25.5. [2][53][55] - **Coking Coal**: Expectations are fluctuating, and it oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of JM2601 was 1203.5, down 29.5. [2][54][55] - **Log**: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of 2511合约 was 801.5, down 0.9%. [2][56][59] - **Para - Xylene**: It remains weak in the medium term. [2][60] - **PTA**: Maintenance increases, processing fees are restored, but it remains weak in the medium term. [2][60] - **MEG**: Reverse arbitrage for the 1 - 5 month spread. [2][60] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is no obvious driving force for both upward and downward movements, and the main strategy is range - bound operation. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Exports have reappeared, and it is recommended to go long on dips. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: It oscillates at a low level and may rebound from oversold conditions. [5] - **Soybean**: It oscillates at a low level. [5] - **Corn**: It oscillates. [5] - **Sugar**: It oscillates downward. [5] - **Cotton**: The market is concerned about the situation of new cotton listings. [5] - **Egg**: The spot market is weak. [5] - **Live Pig**: Expectations have turned pessimistic, and the trends of basis and spreads are confirmed. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/09/19 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: FT reported that China has requested the termination of orders for NVIDIA' ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - Gold: The FOMC meeting was in line with expectations. [2] - Silver: It will undergo a volatile adjustment. [2][5] - Copper: The increase in domestic spot premiums restricts price declines. [2][10] - Zinc: It will experience a weak and volatile trend. [2][13] - Lead: The decrease in inventory supports the price. [2][16] - Tin: It will trade within a range. [2][19] - Aluminum: It will trade within a range. [2][24] - Alumina: The oversupply situation persists. [2][24] - Cast aluminum alloy: There is cost support. [2][24] - Nickel: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent. Attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end. [2][27] - Stainless steel: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may fluctuate. [2][27] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Gold - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 yesterday was 824.10, with a daily decline of 1.31%, and the night - session closing price was 828.08, with a decline of 0.71%. The trend strength is 0. [5][8] - **Macroeconomic News**: The Bank of England maintained interest rates and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years. Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. [5][9] Silver - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9808, with a daily decline of 0.97%, and the night - session closing price was 9902.00, with a decline of 0.06%. The trend strength is 0. [5][8] - **Macroeconomic News**: Similar to gold, including the Bank of England's decision, US jobless claims, and US Treasury bond holdings. [5][9] Base Metals Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 79,580, with a daily decline of 1.22%, and the night - session closing price was 79660, with an increase of 0.10%. The trend strength is 0. [10][12] - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped significantly. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is still shut down for rescue. Panama will negotiate with First Quantum Minerals on the resumption of the CP copper mine. Codelco and Escondida's copper production increased year - on - year in July. China's copper production is expected to decline in September. [10][12] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22045, with a decline of 1.05%. The trend strength is - 1. [13][15] - **News**: The Bank of England maintained interest rates and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening. [14] Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17145, with an increase of 0.26%. The trend strength is 0. [16][17] - **News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped significantly. [17] Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 269,100, with a decline of 1.26%, and the night - session closing price was 267,840, with a decline of 0.89%. The trend strength is 0. [20][23] - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including Bank of England's decision, US jobless claims, and other news. [21][22] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20785, down 125. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2931, down 6. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20320, down 140. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0. [24][26] - **News**: Overseas investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a new high in July. [26] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,940, down 850. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,875, down 60. The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is 0. [27][33] - **Industry News**: The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in the IMIP. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period. The approved RKAB production in 2025 is higher than in 2024. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production. Indonesian mining companies need to resubmit the 2026 RKAB. A steel mill in Shandong has started maintenance. The Indonesian president will punish illegal mining. The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over a nickel - mining area. [27][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly, reaching the largest decline in nearly four years, but the number of continued claims remained above the key level of 1.9 million, reflecting a complex labor - market situation [7]. - For the Container Freight Index (Europe Line), the 2510 contract is under pressure, while the 2512 and 2602 contracts are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The 2510 contract's delivery settlement price is likely to be within 1100 points [8][9]. - Treasury futures may have a slight short - term recovery but maintain a bearish and volatile view. There are structural opportunities in the bond market in the next six months, and systematic trend opportunities may come after the next fundamental high [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Labor Market - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 13 was 231,000, down 32,000 from the previous week, with the largest decline in nearly four years. The continued claims remained above 1.9 million, and the decline was mainly due to the normalization of abnormal data in Texas, related to seasonal personnel changes in the education system [7]. 3.2 Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - **2510 Contract**: It is expected to operate under pressure. The price - list center for weeks 39 - 41 may fall to the range of $1450 - 1500 per FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS index of about 1015 - 1050 points. The delivery settlement price is likely to be within 1100 points [8]. - **2512 Contract**: Shipping companies may try to increase freight rates from November to December. However, there are two negative factors in December this year compared to last year, so it should be treated with a wide - range fluctuation mindset [9]. - **2602 Contract**: The Spring Festival in 2026 is later than in 2025. Historically, in years with a late Spring Festival, the 02 contract may not be at a discount to the 12 contract. Strategies include considering long - term positive spreads between 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 [9]. 3.3 Treasury Futures - They are expected to have a slight short - term recovery but maintain a bearish and volatile view. Three factors contribute to the weak trend: policy orientation favoring stocks over bonds, the improvement of inflation expectations, and the negative feedback path from institutional redemptions to shifts in self - operated institutions and household wealth transfers. There are structural opportunities in the bond market in the next six months [11]. 3.4 Commodity Futures - **Precious Metals**: Gold's FOMC meeting was in line with expectations, and silver is in a shock - adjustment phase [16][20][21]. - **Base Metals**: Copper's domestic spot premium has risen, limiting price declines; zinc is weakly volatile; lead's price is supported by inventory reduction; tin is in a range - bound fluctuation; aluminum is in a range - bound fluctuation, alumina still has an oversupply, and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost [16][26][29][32][35][40]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Industrial silicon should be shorted on rallies; polycrystalline silicon's short - term sentiment may cool down; iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon ferroalloy, manganese ferroalloy, coke, and coking coal are all expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [16][54][55][58][60][61][65][68][69]. - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil has no obvious upward or downward drivers and is suitable for range trading; soybean oil can be bought on dips; soybean meal may rebound from oversold conditions; corn is in a volatile state; sugar is in a downward - volatile trend; cotton market focuses on new cotton listings; eggs' spot market is weak; the outlook for hogs has turned pessimistic; peanuts should be watched for new peanut listings [19].

18日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。据英国《金融时报》报道，中国互联网监管机构已指示阿里 巴巴、字节跳动等公司终止对英伟达RTXPro6000D芯片的订单。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋称，对此表 示失望。林剑对此表示，具体问题建议向中方的主管部门了解。我们一贯反对在经贸科技问题上对特定 国家采取歧视性做法，中方愿同各方保持对话合作，维护全球产供链稳定。 2. "十四五"时期我国科技创新能力稳步提升，"三新"经济增加值占GDP比重达18%，高新技术企业超50 万家 科技部部长阴和俊18日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会上介绍，五年 来，我国科技创新和产业创新加速融合。规上高技术制造业增加值较"十三五"末增长42%；"三新"经济 增加值占GDP比重达18%。企业研发投入占比超77%；高新技术企业超50万家，较2020年增加83%。"十 五五"时期，将发挥新型举国体制优势，推进教育科技人才一体发展，促进科技创新和产业创新深度融 合，营造世界一流的创新环境，全面提升科技创新能力，为建成科技强国奠定坚实基础。 个股新闻 1. 赣锋锂业：目前公司的储能电芯产能已满产 重要新闻 1. 中方已要求终 ...

第一财经每日早间精选热点新闻，点击「听新闻」，一键收听。 【今日推荐】 美国再次一票否决安理会加沙决议草案 当地时间9月18日下午，北京时间今天（9月19日）凌晨，联合国安理会在第10000次会议上，就10个非 常任理事国提出的一份涉加沙停火决议草案进行表决。由于常任理事国美国再次一票否决，该决议草案 未获通过。表决结果为14票赞成，美国一票否决。 65公斤黄金被劫，香港黄金抢劫案7名嫌疑人被曝落网，失窃黄金已全数追回 香港红磡发生黄金大劫案，10名男子于17日凌晨5时30分闯入一间珠宝打金工场，劫走价值约5700万港 元的黄金及3万港元现金。匪徒抢劫后赶走工厂内职员等人并锁门离开。据最新消息，警方经调查后已 拘捕7名涉案人员，失窃黄金已经全数追回。该案件仍在调查中，由香港西九龙重案组跟进。 育儿补贴新规出台：骗取、冒领将被追责 商务部回应Tiktok问题 9月18日，商务部举行例行新闻发布会。有记者就Tiktok问题进行提问，商务部新闻发言人何亚东表 示："关于Tiktok问题，中方立场是一贯的，我们反对将科技和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武器化，绝 不会以牺牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求达成任 ...

Group 1 - Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment in Intel to support the struggling chipmaker, but did not grant key chip manufacturing orders [3] - Alibaba's founder Jack Ma is reportedly making a strong return to the company, focusing on AI and competing with rivals like JD and Meituan [3] - DeepSeek issued a statement warning against fraudsters impersonating the company for scams related to "computing power leasing" and "equity financing" [4] Group 2 - Dongfeng Motor Group announced a joint venture to manufacture and sell smart off-road vehicles, indicating a strategic partnership with Man Technology [9] - Samsung plans to hire 60,000 new employees over the next five years, focusing on semiconductor, biotechnology, and AI sectors [7] - Amazon will invest over $1 billion to increase wages and reduce healthcare costs for its delivery employees, raising average wages to over $23 per hour [13] Group 3 - Apple is in discussions with suppliers for trial production of a foldable iPhone in Taiwan, aiming for mass production in India by 2026 [13] - The global first AI Database Agent was launched by Teable, which recently secured angel round financing from investors including ZhenFund and Baidu Ventures [14] - The new national standard for RVs in China will take effect on March 1, 2026, prohibiting sleeping and bathing while the vehicle is in motion [19]

每经记者｜陈晴 每经编辑｜程鹏 陈鹏程 王晓波 ~~~文末有福利~~~ 标题点睛： 9月18日晚，上海市教委发布通报称，上海市教委会同市场监督管理部门赴现场调查，相关菜品留样及原料已送上海市质量监督检验技术研究院有限公司 和上海中维检测技术有限公司进行检验。根据相关规程，一周内将出具检验结果。9月15日，有学生家长反映，当天中午的学生餐里，一道虾仁炒蛋被临 时撤掉，学生说这道菜"有臭味"，"吃到呕吐"。 江西省景德镇市珠山区市场监督管理局9月18日傍晚发布通报：2025年9月17日晚，网上出现辖区内"空间酒店"国庆房价从90元左右涨至约1000元的相关信 息，引发社会关注。经核查该酒店存在涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国价格法》的行为，现已立案调查。 9月18日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。有记者提问，据外媒报道，中国企业终止对英伟达RTX Pro 6000D芯片的订单。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋 称，对此表示失望。林剑表示，具体问题建议向中方的主管部门了解。我们一贯反对在经贸科技问题上对特定国家采取歧视性做法，中方愿同各方保持对 话合作，维护全球产供链稳定。 1 隔夜市场 美股三大指数集体收涨并创收盘新高，道指涨0 ...