地缘政治风险压过供应过剩担忧，成为市场新主导逻辑。黄金再创新高，白银涨近3%，布伦特原油涨超1%逼近64美元/桶，同时市场正通过期权市场大举押 注油价上涨。据央视与新华社消息，特朗普将于13日商讨包括军事打击、派遣航母及网络攻击在内的多种干预方案。伊朗确认在近期动荡中数百人丧生。 伊朗方面的最新事态正在成为主导全球大宗商品市场的新逻辑。 1月12日周一避险情绪显著升温， 日内涨近2%，升破4590美元大关，再创历史新高。 涨幅扩大至4%，价格继续位于83美元的历史高位水平，逼近历史新高。 BZmain 布伦特原油(现金)主连 (2603) 交易中 01/11 19:26:29 (美东) 63.61 + +0.27 +0.43% 最高 1500 64.00 今开 63.41 成交量 最低 昨收 63.29 63.34 成交额 0 @ 5日 日K 周K 月к 季K 年K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30分 1小时 2小时 3小时 4小时 | 1月 3月 63.96 63.61 63.36 62.75 62.15 61.55 60.94 60.34 A 59.74 成交量 VOL: 0.000 400.00 ...

伊朗方面的最新事态正在成为主导全球大宗商品市场的新逻辑。 1月12日周一避险情绪显著升温，现货黄金日内涨近1%，升至4550美元大关，再创历史新高。 白银涨幅扩大至2.7%，价格继续位于82美元的历史高位水平。 原油市场同样反应剧烈，布伦特原油和WTI原油双双涨超1%。数据显示，布伦特原油在经历了上周四和周五近6%的跳涨后，目前正逼近每桶64 美元关口，创下自10月以来的最大两日涨幅；WTI原油价格则维持在60美元附近。 市场焦虑的核心在于伊朗局势周末突变。当地时间1月11日，据央视新闻记者获悉，美国官员透露，美国总统特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方 案，包括宣布向中东派遣航母战斗群、发动网络攻击和信息战等。另据新华社报道，特朗普将于13日与高级顾问会晤，专门讨论伊朗问题选项。 这一地缘政治风险盖过了此前市场对全球供应过剩的担忧。作为OPEC第四大产油国，伊朗近200万桶/日的原油出口面临中断风险，这直接改变了 投资者的预期。目前，市场正密切关注华盛顿方面的下一步决策以及德黑兰方面的应对措施。 避险买盘涌入 原油期权显露看涨信号 伊朗局势的动荡直接刺激了资金涌入大宗商品市场。油价已连续第三天上涨。 市场数据的变 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 据报道，美国联邦检察官已对美联储主席鲍威尔展开调查。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

进入2026年，全球宏观市场正在经历一场深刻的范式转变。资深分析师David Woo认为，面对中期选举 的巨大压力，特朗普政府正展现出不惜一切代价扭转局面的决心，这将重塑从能源到黄金的全球资产定 价逻辑。 David Woo表示，为弥补严重的民调劣势并避免在国会失去多数席位，特朗普政府的政策重心已全面转 向赢得"可负担性"辩论。这意味着2026年的终极交易主题将从单纯的再通胀转向激进的通缩手段——尤 其是通过强力掌控能源资源来大幅压低油价，目标是在大选前将汽油价格降至关键心理防线。这一战略 不仅意在平抑通胀，更意在通过改善中产阶级生活成本来稳固选票。 而特朗普此前对委内瑞拉的动作标志着战后建立的基于规则的国际秩序实质性终结。这一举措并非出于 意识形态考量，而是为了直接掌控能源资源，以期通过大幅增加供应来赢得国内的"可负担性论证"。特 朗普的目标是在秋季前将汽油价格压低至每加仑2.25美元，这将对原油市场造成剧烈冲击，预计油价将 下探至40至50美元区间。 Woo警告，随着美国放弃作为国际体系的传统担保人角色，全球地缘不安全感将急剧上升，这为黄金提 供了强劲支撑，并利好国防工业。相反，新兴市场股票将面临估值重估 ...

长久以来被视为美国坚定盟友的加拿大正陷入一场前所未有的主权焦虑危机。 据央视新闻报道，特朗普去年早些时候曾多次对加拿大主权发出威胁。特朗普公开表示，美国已厌倦为 加拿大提供安全保障。但如果加拿大成为美国的第51个州，美国就将为其安全负责。 在特朗普政府对委内瑞拉采取行动并重提控制格陵兰岛后，加拿大国内的恐慌情绪迅速升温。决策者被 迫开始严肃审视美国总统关于"吞并加拿大"的过往言论，担忧这不再是谈判策略，而是实质性的地缘政 治风险。 这一局势直接冲击了现任总理卡尼的战略考量。尽管卡尼政府试图通过增加国防开支和寻求贸易多元化 来减少对美依赖，但在即将到来的贸易协定审查前夕，投资者开始担忧美国可能通过经济手段"致残"加 拿大。 分析人士指出，美国对格陵兰岛——一个北约成员国及民主政体——表现出的控制欲，构成了对加拿大 的"终极警钟"，预示着传统盟友关系可能面临结构性重塑。在这一背景下，加拿大正被迫制定应对"军 事胁迫"的极端预案。 贸易达摩克利斯之剑 特朗普的注意力虽然目前分散在其他领域，但市场普遍预期其目光将很快转回北境。美墨加协定 （USMCA）的定期审查即将启动，这极有可能演变为华盛顿向渥太华发泄不满的平台， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lao Xiang Ji, has submitted its third prospectus for its IPO in Hong Kong, showcasing its growth and expansion strategy in the fast-food industry. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the company's revenue reached 4.58 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [2] - The gross profit margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 24.6%, while the net profit margin slightly rose by 0.1 percentage points to 8.1% [8] Group 2: Store Expansion and Strategy - As of August 2025, the total number of stores increased by 179 to 1,658, with a significant portion of stores still located in Anhui province [2][3] - The company employs a balanced strategy of deepening its presence in Anhui while expanding into other provinces, with 86.5% of its stores located in the East China region [3] - Lao Xiang Ji is the largest Chinese fast-food brand in East China by transaction volume, holding a market share of 2.2%, which is 2.5 times that of its second-largest competitor [3] Group 3: Franchise Model - The number of franchise stores reached 733, accounting for nearly 44% of total stores, a significant increase from 18.8% in 2023 [5] - The company has optimized its store structure by converting mature direct-operated stores into franchise stores and allowing qualified former employees to open franchises [4] - Lao Xiang Ji's franchise model is among the highest in the industry, with competitors like Jian Jian Xiao Mian and Yum China having lower franchise ratios [6] Group 4: Supply Chain and Cost Structure - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain, including two central kitchens, three chicken farms, and eight distribution centers, which supports its rapid franchise expansion [3] - The company charges a management fee of 6% based on the monthly sales of franchise stores [7] - The average platform service fee rate for direct-operated store delivery business was 17.9% in 2024 and 17.5% in the first eight months of 2025 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Space photovoltaic technology is evolving from a supporting system for spacecraft to a core energy solution for next-generation space infrastructure, driven by the acceleration of global satellite deployment and the rising demand for space computing power [1] Group 1: Satellite Deployment and Market Dynamics - China applied for frequency resources for over 200,000 satellites by December 2025, with 190,000 from the newly established "national team" [1] - The U.S. FCC approved SpaceX to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, bringing the total approved to 15,000 [1] - The global spacecraft launch volume has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% over the past decade, with an expected launch number exceeding 4,300 by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 50% [3][1] Group 2: Space Computing Centers and Energy Requirements - The rise of space computing centers is opening new possibilities, with projects like China's "Trisolaris Computing Constellation" and SpaceX's Starcloud targeting space data center construction [2] - A potential 10GW space computing system could lead to a solar wing market size of several trillion yuan [2] - The evolution of satellite functions is reshaping energy system requirements, with significant increases in single-satellite power demands [10][12] Group 3: Energy Supply and Technological Developments - The space photovoltaic industry is experiencing a "volume and price increase" scenario, driven by the surge in satellite numbers and the rising power density of individual satellites [14] - Photovoltaic technology is the only efficient and stable energy form for satellites in space, with the need for larger solar wings leading to concerns about weight and cost [12] - The technology route for space photovoltaics is diversifying, with gallium arsenide (GaAs) batteries dominating the high-end market due to their efficiency, while silicon-based heterojunction (HJT) and perovskite technologies are gaining traction for large-scale applications [19][22] Group 4: Economic Considerations and Future Outlook - The explosion of space photovoltaics is reshaping the value logic of the photovoltaic industry, transitioning from a closed military aerospace system to commercial photovoltaic enterprises with large-scale manufacturing capabilities [25] - SpaceX's low launch costs encourage the use of lower-cost silicon-based batteries, while China's higher launch costs still favor the use of expensive GaAs batteries, although a shift towards silicon-based technologies is anticipated [26] - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite market could generate nearly 200 billion yuan in solar wing market space with the launch of 10,000 satellites, and the construction of a future 10GW space computing system could expand the market size to several trillion yuan [30]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is characterized as a "super week" for global capital markets, with significant macroeconomic data and corporate earnings reports expected to heighten market volatility. Key focus areas include inflation dynamics, corporate earnings validation, and geopolitical developments [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. is set to release the December CPI data on January 13, with expectations of a notable rebound, attributed to statistical distortions from the government shutdown rather than genuine inflationary pressures [5][6]. - China's December import and export data will be released on January 14, with forecasts indicating a 3.0% year-on-year increase in exports (down from 5.9% in November) and a 2.9% decline in imports (down from a 1.9% decrease in November) [4]. Corporate Earnings - Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan Chase, will kick off the earnings season, with a focus on the health of the financial system amid high interest rates. Additionally, TSMC's earnings report is anticipated to serve as a bellwether for the global AI supply chain [3][9]. - TSMC is expected to report revenues of approximately NT$1.011 trillion for Q4 2025, with earnings per share projected at NT$2.72, highlighting its role as a key player in AI chip manufacturing [8]. Geopolitical and Industry Developments - The U.S. government faces an increased risk of shutdown as funding runs low, with a critical funding bill set to be reviewed by the Senate. This situation could significantly impact market sentiment and economic stability [13]. - The G7 finance ministers will meet to discuss rare earth issues, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and industry dynamics [13]. - Canadian Prime Minister is scheduled to visit China from January 13 to 17, marking a significant diplomatic engagement focused on trade and energy discussions [13].

Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions and supply chain security concerns are driving countries to stockpile strategic materials, leading to a surge in prices for critical military metals like tungsten and cobalt due to "strong security" demand [1][2] - The shift from a "just-in-time" supply chain model to a "just-in-case" stockpiling approach is reshaping the supply-demand dynamics across various commodities, particularly energy and strategic metals [2][4] - The transition to a "hard asset" era is characterized by increased investment in commodities and defense assets, as they outperform technology stocks [1][3] Commodity Market Dynamics - Major economies are moving away from minimal commercial inventories to large-scale strategic reserves to mitigate risks from potential conflicts and supply disruptions [2][4] - Countries may have stockpiled approximately 1.4 billion barrels of oil, with plans to increase this to 2 billion barrels, significantly exceeding the international standard of 90 days [4] - Prices for tungsten and cobalt are projected to rise by 229% and 120% respectively by 2025, driven by heightened military demand [2][5] Investment Implications - Investors are advised to focus on gold as a hedge against credit risk and to consider the demand for metals driven by national security needs [3][7] - The shift in central bank strategies towards gold, with many aiming to increase gold reserves to 20%, is expected to push gold prices significantly higher [6] - The market is witnessing a transition where defense stocks and commodity ETFs are becoming attractive investment options, while technology stocks like Nvidia are underperforming [7] Central Bank Strategies - The global "de-dollarization" trend is fundamentally changing the pricing logic of gold, with central banks accelerating their shift from dollar reserves to gold [6] - A mere 1% increase in gold reserves among under-reserved central banks could potentially raise gold prices by approximately $1,000 [6] Market Trends - The current macroeconomic narrative suggests a direct investment opportunity in hard assets, with a notable shift in market focus from technology to commodities and defense-related sectors [7] - Gold mining stocks are also benefiting, with all tracked gold miners achieving record profits at current gold prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - Asian technology stocks are outperforming their U.S. counterparts, driven by strong fundamentals and attractive valuations, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 6% compared to the Nasdaq 100's 2% rise [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are shifting from high-valued U.S. tech stocks to undervalued Asian tech stocks, reflecting a change in risk-return preferences [2] - The MSCI Asia Pacific Information Technology Index has a forward P/E ratio of 16.3, significantly lower than the Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which are around 25 [2] - Fund managers are increasingly allocating to Asian tech stocks, with demand from various types of funds flowing into markets like South Korea and Hong Kong [2] Group 2: Earnings Growth Potential - Higher earnings growth potential is a key driver of bullish sentiment, with expected EPS growth of 79% for South Korean stocks and 36% for Taiwanese stocks over the next 12 months, compared to 28% for Nasdaq-listed companies [3] - Major Asian tech stocks, including TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, have seen price increases between 8% and 16% this year, with Hua Hong Semiconductor exceeding a 20% rise [3] Group 3: Chinese Tech Recovery - The Chinese market is crucial for Asian tech investments, with expectations of significant earnings growth for Chinese tech giants in 2026, potentially surpassing the U.S. "Big Seven" for the first time since 2022 [4] - The enthusiasm for Chinese tech is bolstered by advancements in AI, with new companies like Minimax and Zhiyu AI recently going public [4] Group 4: AI Investment Landscape - The North Asian tech ecosystem is positioned at the forefront of the global AI growth trend, with significant investments expected from major tech companies [5] - Concerns are rising regarding the potential for an AI bubble, as capital expenditures from companies like Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are projected to increase by 34% to approximately $440 billion next year [5]