Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in glass futures prices, primarily driven by falling coal prices, which reduced production costs for coal-based glass [1] - The glass futures contract FG2509 experienced a trading volume of 2.84 million lots, with an increase in open interest by over 140,000 lots, highlighting heightened speculative trading despite regulatory measures [1] - The macroeconomic policy environment has not provided positive signals, with recent meetings reiterating existing policies without introducing new fiscal measures or real estate support, leading to increased investor risk aversion [1] Group 2 - The overall market for glass is under pressure, with regional performance showing significant differences; for instance, prices in North China are stable while East China sees slight declines [1] - Inventory data reveals a decrease in total inventory to 59.49 million heavy boxes, marking a six-week decline, but this is driven by midstream shifts rather than improvements in end-user consumption [1] - The production side shows a recovery, with the float glass industry operating at a 75% capacity utilization rate, reaching a new high of 79.78% [1] Group 3 - Profit margins for different production processes show a clear divergence, with coal-to-gas and petroleum coke processes achieving weekly profits exceeding 135 CNY/ton, while natural gas processes remain at a loss [2] - The demand outlook remains weak, with policy expectations falling short and urban renewal efforts focusing on high-quality development, resulting in sales rates in major regions between 60-80% [2] Group 4 - Multiple institutions predict that glass prices will maintain high volatility, with structural demand differentiation and unclear seasonal improvement expectations [3] - Some institutions suggest a low-long strategy for glass futures, indicating that the fundamental situation remains largely unchanged despite increased speculative trading [3] - The weak demand from the real estate sector, which constitutes about 75% of glass demand, is expected to dominate short-term market logic, as sales and new construction remain sluggish [3]

政策预期发生了怎样的转变？ 市场剧烈波动的深层次原因在于政策预期的重大修正。7月30日晚间，中共中央政治局会议召开，与7月 1日中央财经委会议相比，政策表述出现微妙变化。新湖期货表示："本周政治局会议中，再度提到依法 依规治理企业无序竞争，但删除了月初经济工作会议中'低价无序竞争'前的'低价'两字。今日，发改委总 结会议，要求改革手段更注重市场化、法治化，而非靠行政命令搞'一刀切'，对当前市场的过度解读进 行纠偏。"这一政策基调的调整直接导致前期基于"反内卷"预期的多头资金集中离场。 交易所调控措施或是导致价格大跌的推手之一？ 除政策预期转变外，监管部门的直接干预也是市场暴跌的重要推手。7月30日晚间，广期所再度出手调 整多晶硅等三大品种的交易限额，为过热的市场紧急降温。 瑞达期货分析认为："今日多晶硅大幅下跌，主要原因来自于期货交易所限仓通知，同时叠加市场对于 反内卷会议回归正常认知。"这一监管措施直接限制了部分资金的过度投机行为，导致前期涨幅较大的 合约出现集中减仓。具体来看： 国内商品市场遭遇"黑色星期四"，其中多晶硅期货主力2509合约收盘暴跌7.81%至49130元/吨，盘中一 度逼近9%的跌停板， ...

交易所出手为市场投机情绪降温，自7月30日当晚夜盘交易时起，玻璃期货2509合约的日内平今仓交易 手续费标准上调至10元/手，不过市场投机交易热情不减，连年已经展开移仓的09合约今日仍增仓超14 万手，成交量接近284万手，处于商品市场首位。此外昨日重要会议与市场此前预期一致未释放增量财 政政策信号，强调用好之前的政策包，且未对地产有更多的提振，但延续之前的高质量发展指引，以及 继续推进反内卷。 玻璃现货市场整体承压，交投区域分化明显，厂家成交策略灵活。华北市场成交放缓，沙河厂家报价松 动下调，其中华北5.00mm大板现货暂稳于1250元/吨。华东厂家出货偏灵活，江苏地区价格窄幅下行， 华中需求端理性采购为主，整体交投一般。华南多数厂家稳价观望为主，两广地区部分厂家挺价探涨。 随着玻璃价格的持续上行，尽管原料纯碱价格也走高，但燃料价格普遍下跌，浮法玻璃企业生产情况连 续7周改善。本周仅以天然气为燃料的浮法玻璃周均利润仍为负，不过环比收窄16.1元至-152.27元/吨； 以煤制气为燃料的浮法玻璃周均利润137.78元/吨，环比增加10.85元/吨；以石油焦为燃料的浮法玻璃周 均利润骤增82.14元至135.5 ...

周四，中国焦煤期货市场遭遇重挫，除08合约外所有合约均触及跌停板，主力合约收报1045.5元/吨的 跌停价，焦炭9月合约亦下跌近5%至1601点。这一剧烈调整的直接诱因或来自宏观层面多重"靴子落 地"后的预期重估。 市场情绪出现明显修正，推动焦煤价格大幅回落 中共中央政治局7月30日会议未释放市场期待的增量财政政策信号，对房地产行业也未有更多提振措 施。与此同时，美联储如预期维持利率不变，但淡化了9月降息预期，导致风险资产价格普遍调整。光 大期货分析指出："中国7月官方制造业PMI指数为49.3，相较于上一期回落了0.4个百分点，且低于市场 预期的49.7，对市场情绪产生了一定的冲击。" 市场此前对"反内卷"政策的过度乐观预期在政治局会议后出现明显修正。新湖期货表示："此次政治局 会议较7月1日中央财经委会议去除了'低价无序竞争'中的'低价'二字，'推动落后产能有序退出'变成'推进 重点行业产能治理'，我们理解为政策可能对前期反内卷的过度解读有所纠偏。"这一政策表述的微妙变 化导致前期基于政策预期的多头资金集中离场。 弘业期货分析认为："市场进入情绪修复阶段，前期受'反内卷'情绪推动涨幅较大的品种出现集中回 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's escalating criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly after the Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, ignoring Trump's repeated calls for rate cuts [1][2]. - Trump accused Powell of causing significant economic losses and criticized the Fed's management, specifically referencing a $2.5 billion renovation project of the Fed's headquarters [2]. - The recent inflation data showed that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, exceeding economists' expectations and indicating persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target [2]. Group 2 - The decision to keep interest rates steady has intensified the tension between the Fed and Trump, with traders reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in September to about 40% [2]. - Powell emphasized the need for more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy, stating that inflation remains a concern and that necessary measures will be taken to control it [1][2]. - Powell indicated that the decision on whether to cut rates in the fall will depend on the accumulation of data leading up to the next meeting [3].

根据再就业服务公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas的数据（挑战者报告），美国七月份的裁员计划飙升 至一个高位，远超疫情以来的月平均水平。其中，科技公司在裁员方面处于领先地位。 本月，美国公司宣布的裁员人数达到62075人，而去年同期约为25900人。该报告于周四发布，显示2025 年的裁员人数是过去十年中七月份的第二高，仅次于2020年新冠疫情最严重时期的裁员数量。 报告指出，计划裁员的原因包括人工智能和关税。此外，经济前景的不确定性导致零售业出现裁员和店 铺关闭。 近几周，主要科技公司公布了裁员计划。英特尔公司宣布计划裁员15%，而微软公司也启动了今年的第 二轮裁员，将影响9000名员工。整个科技行业都在增加对人工智能的投入，试图在其他方面削减成本。 计划中的裁员不一定会立即转化为实际的失业。截至六月，美国整体就业市场保持稳定，失业率维持在 4.1%的低位。然而，根据经济学家的预测中值，预计政府将于本周五发布的七月就业报告将显示，随 着就业增长放缓，失业率将小幅上升至4.2%。 挑战者报告还显示，汽车制造商的裁员计划有所增加，这主要与关税有关。此外，联邦预算削减正在对 依赖政府业务的 ...

北京时间周四20:30，美国公布PCE数据，6月核心PCE物价指数年率录得2.8%，高于预期的2.70%，前 值由2.70%修正为2.8%。6月核心PCE物价指数月率录得0.3%，符合预期，高于前值的0.20%。 包含食品能源的整体PCE指数环比上升0.3%，同比上涨2.6%，分别高于市场预期的0.23%和2.5%。 数据还显示，个人消费支出价格指数环比上涨0.3%，将年率提升至2.6%，为2月份以来的最高水平。支 出疲软的背后是劳动力市场降温。实际可支配收入在5月份下降后持平，而工资和薪金几乎没有上涨。 预计将于周五公布的7月就业报告将显示招聘持续放缓，失业率略有回升。储蓄率保持在4.5%。 美国系列数据公布后，现货黄金短线波动暂不大，美元指数短线小幅走高。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos表示，（6月）核心PCE通胀看起来开始恶化，并不比美联储去年开始降息 时更好，从某些指标来看甚至更糟。6月份核心PCE物价指数3个月年化率为2.6%（去年同期为2.3%）。 按6个月年化计算，这一数字为3.2%（去年同期为3.3%）。 6月份的通胀数据是由商品价格上涨推动的，包括家居用品、运动器材和服装，这表明 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The main contract for lithium carbonate dropped by 4.66%, closing at 68,280 yuan/ton, amid stable overseas lithium supply and smooth progress in mining rights renewal by leading domestic company CATL [1] - Recent market fluctuations are driven by funds and sentiment rather than fundamental pricing, with trading limits imposed by exchanges reducing speculative activity [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas lithium supply remains stable and abundant, with several Australian mining companies reporting sequential growth in production and sales, and spodumene spot prices recovering from approximately $600 per ton in June to around $800 [2] - CATL's management indicated that their lithium mining projects are operating normally and have submitted applications for mining rights renewal, alleviating market concerns about supply disruptions [2] Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand shows significant differentiation, with domestic demand for ternary materials benefiting from seasonal stocking and new model launches, while orders are concentrated among leading manufacturers [3] - In the overseas market, there is a pre-stocking phenomenon due to the impending expiration of U.S. electric vehicle subsidies, while demand for lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease, but the energy storage sector is performing relatively well due to export competition and policy incentives in Eastern Europe [3] Group 4: Inventory and Cost Structure - The lithium carbonate market faces significant inventory pressure, with total market inventory rising to a recent high of 143,000 tons, while smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 55,000 tons [4] - The flattening of the cost curve is weakening the price support from traditional high-cost production and compressing industry profit margins, which is a key driver for the downward shift in lithium carbonate price levels [4] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Institutions have differing views on the future of lithium carbonate, with some suggesting a "weak reality strong expectation" scenario, indicating marginal improvements in fundamentals but a medium-term oversupply [5] - Predictions for the second half of the year suggest a two-phase market: initial price increases due to improved macro sentiment and supply disruptions, followed by potential price declines in the fourth quarter as production ramps up [5] - The market is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation pattern, with investors advised to closely monitor inventory depletion and changes in overseas policies [5]

供应端最新动态显示，海外锂矿供给维持稳定充裕状态。多家澳矿企业近期披露的财报显示产销环比增 长，锂辉石现货价格已从6月每吨约600美元的低点回升至800美元附近。 皮尔巴拉矿业首席执行官戴尔·亨德森在财报电话会议上表示："他对市场前景'保持谨慎乐观'，强调当 前行情仍主要由'市场情绪、政策信号及投机资金'驱动，而非基于供需基本面的改善。" 周四，碳酸锂主力合约下跌4.66%，收报68280元/吨。这一剧烈调整发生在海外锂矿供给维持稳定、国 内龙头企业宁德时代采矿权续期进展顺利的背景下。 新湖期货分析指出："近期资金与情绪主导锂价行情，市场炒作情绪较浓，短期基本面定价权重较低。 交易所实施交易限额等风控措施，压制投机盘活跃度，资金切换迅速以及情绪逆转致锂价近日大 跌。"市场剧烈波动背后，是供需基本面与政策预期的复杂博弈。锂矿供应端出现哪些新变化？ 国内方面，宁德时代管理层在半年报业绩解读会上透露，其锂矿项目生产经营正常，已提交采矿权续期 申请材料，缓解了市场对供应中断的担忧。下游需求呈现何种态势？ 需求端表现呈现明显分化。三元材料方面，国内市场受益于旺季备货需求及新车型集中上市，动力市场 需求呈现一定增量，但订 ...

Group 1 - The core PCE inflation appears to be worsening, not better than when the Federal Reserve started cutting rates last year, and in some indicators, it is even worse [1] - The annualized rate of the core PCE price index for June is 2.6%, compared to 2.3% in the same month last year [1] - The six-month annualized rate stands at 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the same period last year [1]