Core Viewpoint - The selection of the new Federal Reserve Chair will significantly influence the independence of the Fed and its policy direction, impacting market expectations and economic stability [2][4]. Group 1: Candidates and Their Profiles - Waller is viewed as a strong candidate due to his familiarity with the Fed and strong economic forecasting abilities, making him a suitable choice [4]. - Waller is characterized as hawkish and relatively conservative, indicating a preference for tighter monetary policy [6]. - The market perceives Waller's potential appointment as a positive for dollar assets, with reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [15]. Group 2: Market Reactions - If Waller is appointed, the market is likely to interpret this as a sign of Fed independence, which would be bullish for dollar assets and diminish rate cut expectations [15]. - Should Washington be appointed instead, the market reaction would be similar to Waller's, but with slightly less intensity [17]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical lessons, such as Nixon's pressure on Burns, highlight the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence to avoid adverse economic consequences [19].

Core Insights - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced new partnerships and dismissed concerns about an "AI bubble," stating that the company's latest chips could generate up to $500 billion in revenue [2] - The GTC conference in Washington showcased Nvidia's expanding collaboration network, including partnerships with Uber, Palantir, and CrowdStrike, and highlighted the launch of a new system connecting quantum computers with AI chips [2][3] - Nvidia's flagship AI accelerators, "Blackwell" and its updated model "Rubin," are expected to drive unprecedented sales growth by 2026 [2][3] Partnerships and Collaborations - Nvidia plans to invest €1 billion (approximately $1.2 billion) in a data center in Germany in collaboration with Deutsche Telekom and has recently signed an investment agreement with Nokia [2] - The company is also working with Lucid to develop an autonomous driving platform and with CrowdStrike to create an AI cybersecurity system [5] - A partnership with Eli Lilly aims to build a powerful supercomputer for the pharmaceutical industry, utilizing over 1,000 Nvidia Blackwell AI accelerator chips [4] Market Position and Competition - Nvidia's latest generation of chips is expected to ship 20 million units, a significant increase compared to the 4 million units sold of the previous "Hopper" chip [3] - Despite Nvidia's dominance in the AI accelerator market, competition is intensifying with AMD and Broadcom entering the field, and companies like Qualcomm announcing plans to enter the AI accelerator market [4][6] - Nvidia's stock rose 5% following the conference, closing at a record $201.03, while AMD's stock has more than doubled this year, indicating investor optimism about AMD as a competitor [3][6] Economic Impact and Future Outlook - Huang emphasized that AI is reshaping the global economy and that current investments in computing infrastructure are justified [6] - The company is seeking assistance from the White House and Congress to restore AI chip exports to China, which have resulted in significant revenue losses [6] - Nvidia's efforts to position itself as a key supplier for sovereign AI systems globally reflect its ambition to expand its influence beyond the U.S. market [6]

过去一周黄金遭遇猛烈抛售，而随着美联储即将下调基准利率，投资者可能正错失逢低吸纳这一贵金属 的良机。鉴于市场预期美联储将在年底前再次降息，他们或许还将获得新的入场机遇。 资产管理和关键材料公司Sprott Inc.高级执行合伙人瑞安·麦金泰尔（Ryan McIntyre）指出，价格回调虽 难以避免，但黄金"仍处于长期增长的有利位置"。他强调："全球信任体系持续瓦解，正推动对独立于 其他资产与机构的资产需求。" 他在接受MarketWatch采访时进一步表示，许多西方经济体（尤其是赤字高企、联邦债务庞大的美国） 的财政前景岌岌可危，随着主权风险上升，这可能在中长期内继续"支撑黄金走势"。 周二，纽约商品交易所最活跃的12月黄金期货合约收报每盎司3983.10美元，下跌0.9%，连续三个交易 日走低。自10月20日创下4359.40美元历史收盘高点以来，金价已回调近9%。道琼斯市场数据显示，本 月黄金累计涨幅仍接近3%，年内涨幅更是高达51%。 他向MarketWatch阐释："全球资本意识到自身对美元配置过度而对黄金配置不足，因此我们预期，在经 过近期泡沫挤压后，以所有法币计价的黄金价格将继续攀升。" 美联储最 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普：美联储主席鲍威尔不是无能就是坏，将在"几个月内"离职 美国商务部长：将在日本签署4900亿美元投资协议 欧洲主要股指涨跌不一，法国CAC40指数收跌0.27%；德国DAX30指数收跌0.12%；英国富时100指数收涨0.44%；欧洲斯托克50指数收跌0.12%。 港股走势震荡，恒指收跌0.33%，报26346.14点。恒生科技指数收跌1.26%，报6093.44点。截至收盘，恒指大市成交额2427亿港元。盘面上，黄金股领跌， 体育用品板块下跌；香港本地银行股上涨，水务板块涨幅居前。个股方面，四只上市新股悉数收涨，滴普科技(01384.HK)涨150.56%，八马茶业(06980.HK) 涨86.7%，剑桥科技(06166.HK)涨33.86%，三一重工(06031.HK)涨2.82%。哔哩哔哩(09626.HK)涨5.3%，汇丰控股(00005.HK)、信义光能(00968.HK)涨超4%， 友邦保险(01299.HK)、金山软件(03888.HK)涨超3%；紫金矿业(02 ...

Group 1 - ADP Research will begin releasing weekly U.S. employment data to provide high-frequency insights into the labor market, supplementing its monthly reports [2][3] - The average new employment figure for the four weeks ending October 11 was 14,250, covering about 20% of the U.S. private sector workforce [3] - The release of this data comes amid a government shutdown, making third-party data sources increasingly valuable as official statistics are paused [3][4] Group 2 - ADP's Chief Economist Nela Richardson stated that the new weekly employment data will offer a clearer picture of the labor market during this critical economic period [4] - There is a general expectation that Federal Reserve officials will lower interest rates in response to a cooling labor market, as hiring has slowed and demand for workers has eased [4] - ADP's data is compiled in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, based on weekly payroll data from over 26 million private sector employees [4]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has reached a historical high of 6875 points, driven by positive trade negotiation signals, strong expectations for interest rate cuts, and robust corporate earnings [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Continuous inflow of funds is providing solid support for the stock market, with retail investors maintaining a net buying position for 23 out of the last 27 weeks [4] - Hedge funds have shifted to become net buyers of U.S. stocks following favorable inflation data that reinforced rate cut expectations [4] - Corporate stock buybacks have resumed, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is traditionally a period of high buyback activity [4] Group 2: Technical and Seasonal Factors - The next resistance level for the S&P 500 index is near 7000 points, with a potential target range of 7500-7700 points if this level is breached [4] - Historical data shows that the last week of October has been one of the best-performing periods for stocks over the past 75 years [5] - The S&P 500 index has seen a cumulative increase of 38% since April, raising concerns about high valuations approaching bubble levels [5] Group 3: Earnings Reports and Central Bank Policies - Five of the "Big Seven" tech giants are set to report earnings this week, which will significantly impact market direction as they collectively represent about a quarter of the S&P 500 index's market capitalization [5] - There is a strong expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a nearly 98% probability indicated by market tools [6] - Despite strong rate cut expectations, there are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future policy paths due to persistent inflation concerns [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - The interplay of multiple favorable factors and key risks creates a battleground for the S&P 500 index as it approaches the 7000-point mark [7] - Successful navigation through the earnings season and central bank policy decisions could allow the market to continue its upward trend, while any disappointing signals could trigger a market pullback [7]

Group 1 - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) predicts that gold prices will reach $4,980 per ounce in the next 12 months, representing a 27% increase from current levels [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 52%, potentially marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [1] - Gold prices surpassed $3,000 per ounce in March and $4,000 per ounce in October, both seen as significant psychological resistance levels [1] Group 2 - The LBMA's annual survey indicates that silver prices are expected to rise from approximately $46 per ounce to $59 per ounce within a year [2] - Silver prices have increased by 62% year-to-date, the largest rise since 2010, driven by strong investment demand and supply tightness in the London spot market [2] - Silver reached a historical high of $54.5 per ounce on October 17 due to increased purchasing from India [2] Group 3 - Platinum prices are forecasted to rise from $1,544 per ounce to $1,816 per ounce, while palladium prices are expected to increase from about $1,364 to $1,709 [3] - Year-to-date, platinum and palladium prices have risen by 76% and 54%, respectively, amid supply constraints and concerns over U.S. tariffs [3]

Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - Morgan Stanley reports that dollar positioning has turned positive for the first time since Q1 2025, indicating increasing investor confidence in the U.S. outlook [1] - The firm anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement significant rate cuts, which may lead to a weaker dollar over the next year due to a potential decline in U.S. growth advantages [2] - Barclays expects a divergence in opinions within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent of rate cuts, with some members advocating for larger cuts while others may prefer to maintain current rates [3] Group 2: Commodity and Market Trends - Huatai Securities predicts that global LME aluminum prices may rise above $3,200 per ton next year, driven by a supply growth slowdown and a demand increase amid a manufacturing recovery [6] - Guotai Haitong indicates that the coal sector has confirmed a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with coal prices exceeding 770 yuan per ton, driven by multiple favorable factors [4] - Galaxy Securities highlights that intensified losses in October may accelerate the capacity reduction in the pig farming industry, while also noting growth opportunities in the pet food sector [6] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - CICC forecasts that Vietnam's reclassification as a secondary emerging market will attract foreign capital inflows, potentially amounting to $1-1.5 billion over 1-3 years, benefiting sectors like finance, real estate, and consumption [5] - CITIC Securities suggests maintaining a focus on themes such as anti-involution, AI computing power, semiconductors, and short dramas, as the market remains in a high-level oscillation phase [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to end its three-year quantitative tightening (QT) this week to alleviate pressure on banks amid tightening funding conditions in the money market [1][3] - Since the initiation of QT in June 2022, the Federal Reserve has allowed over $2 trillion in U.S. Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to mature without reinvestment, tightening the financing environment [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet currently stands at $6.59 trillion, which is over $2 trillion higher than pre-pandemic levels [3] Group 2 - QT is the reverse operation of quantitative easing (QE), which was last used during the pandemic to prevent economic and financial crises [2] - The Federal Reserve slowed the pace of QT in April, reducing the monthly reduction of U.S. Treasuries from $25 billion to $5 billion while maintaining a maximum reduction of $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities [2] - The use of the New York Fed's standing repo facility has recently reached pandemic levels, indicating a potential shift from "ample" to "adequate" liquidity in the banking system [3] Group 3 - Concerns about liquidity shocks are driving the Federal Reserve to take action to avoid a repeat of the September 2019 QT episode, when short-term financing costs surged above the Fed's target range [3] - Critics argue that while QE prevented market collapse during the pandemic, it also contributed to the most severe inflation surge in a generation [3][4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen criticized the Fed's QE program as "deviating from its mission," claiming that its balance sheet policies exacerbate inequality, a claim denied by Fed officials [4]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 今年以来，美股始终被科技股主导的乐观情绪推动，标普500指数与纳斯达克指数在英伟达（NVDA） 等人工智能相关股票的带动下持续走高，对美国政府停摆的负面影响视而不见。 但在这股狂热背后，市场对下一个重大宏观事件——联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）10月会议——的焦 虑正不断加剧。 这场定于美东时间10月28日至29日召开的会议，正值美联储需在缺乏完整政府数据的情况下制定货币政 策。这不仅给美联储带来操作层面的难题，更引发理念层面的疑问：当央行"盲目飞行"时，该如何决 策？ 这种情况并非没有先例。美国历史上最长的政府停摆发生在2018年底至2019年初，持续35天，当时政府 数据同样延迟发布，迫使美联储采用私营部门替代数据和市场指标。 但此次风险可能更高：美国经济正放缓，财政政策陷入混乱，货币政策已处于紧缩状态。若决策失误或 释放错误信号，可能扰乱市场、不必要地收紧金融环境，或导致通胀再度加速。 当前围绕本周美联储会议的猜测，几乎都聚焦于其是否会将关键利率下调25个基点。市场参与者将此视 为基准情景，但美联储的措辞与语气才是关键。 若美联储降息却继续保持鹰 ...