Group 1 - The report from Bank of America indicates a significant decline in the global fund allocation to US stocks, dropping from 72% in 2024 to less than 50% in 2023 due to trade war concerns and political risks associated with the Trump administration [1] - Foreign capital inflow into US stocks has slowed to less than $2 billion in the past three months, compared to $34 billion in January [1] - Concerns over the US fiscal deficit and a depreciating dollar are dampening investor enthusiasm for US assets [1] Group 2 - HSBC's analysis suggests that the reasonable valuation range for USD/JPY is between 146 and 152, with potential intervention from the Japanese government if the exchange rate reaches between 155 and 160 [2] - Key factors influencing the yen's potential rebound include a US-Japan trade agreement and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [2] Group 3 - Barclays warns that dismissing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may backfire, potentially leading to increased inflation expectations and prolonged periods of inaction or even rate hikes by the FOMC [3] - The report emphasizes that even a new Fed chair would need consensus with other FOMC members to implement significant policy changes [3] Group 4 - Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the recent mild recovery of the dollar may only represent a pause in its depreciation trend, not a reversal [4] - The report highlights that the upcoming US tariff deadline and threats to the Fed's independence could reignite concerns over the dollar's value [4] Group 5 - Deutsche Bank also notes that the upcoming Japanese elections could negatively impact the yen, as the government risks losing its majority, increasing uncertainty in fiscal policy [5] - The potential for new elections in the House of Representatives adds to the challenges in US-Japan trade negotiations, which could further weaken the yen [5] Group 6 - Deutsche Bank's foreign exchange analyst states that even with significant rate cuts from the European Central Bank, the euro may continue to appreciate against the dollar due to US policies undermining the dollar [6] - The forecast predicts that the EUR/USD exchange rate could rise to 1.20 by December 2025 and 1.25 by September 2026 [6] Group 7 - The report from CICC highlights the potential of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which could be three times the scale of the Three Gorges Project, providing long-term growth opportunities for electrical equipment manufacturers [8] - The project is expected to significantly impact the market for hydropower equipment, with major suppliers like Harbin Electric and Dongfang Electric benefiting from the anticipated demand [8] Group 8 - Huatai Securities estimates that the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, which commenced on July 19, could generate a total value of approximately 53.5 billion to 95.4 billion yuan in turbine and generator business [10] - The project is expected to become a new growth point for hydropower equipment after 2030, ensuring high capacity utilization in the industry [10] Group 9 - CICC's report indicates that the recent comments from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reflect a strategy of market manipulation, with Trump delivering negative news while Mnuchin provides reassurances to stabilize the market [9] - This dynamic is seen as part of a broader "TACO trading" strategy, where market reactions are influenced by the contrasting messages from the administration [9] Group 10 - CICC suggests that the probability of a Fed rate cut in July is low, as key employment indicators show resilience in the US job market, despite some mixed signals [11] - The report emphasizes that the Fed does not need to rush into rate cuts, as many indicators support a wait-and-see approach [11] Group 11 - CICC notes that the implementation of pricing mechanisms in the electricity reform is expected to stabilize profitability for leading operators in the sector, as new projects focus on coastal wind and renewable energy bases [12] - The report highlights that leading operators are likely to outperform the industry average in project returns due to their superior capabilities [12] Group 12 - CICC identifies overseas expansion as a strong driver for performance exceeding expectations, with companies benefiting from increased ROE and profit margins [13] - The report anticipates that as trade war expectations stabilize, overseas expansion could lead to sector-wide market movements [13] Group 13 - CICC forecasts that commodity prices will return to being driven by fundamentals in Q3 2025, with industrial metals and crude oil potentially weakening, while coal and steel supply-demand dynamics may improve [15] - The report suggests that liquidity easing and supply constraints could keep precious and industrial metal prices stable [15] Group 14 - CICC expresses optimism for sectors related to foundation treatment, civil explosives, cement, and engineering contracting due to the significant investment in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project [16] - The project is expected to create high demand growth across multiple construction and building material segments [16] Group 15 - Zheshang Securities highlights that RWA (Real World Assets) could lead to a temporary expansion of dollar credit as blockchain technology accelerates the replacement of traditional finance [17] - The report discusses the potential challenges RWA poses to traditional financial institutions, including banks and brokers [17] Group 16 - Huatai Securities suggests that despite entering the e-commerce off-season, the pressure on terminal franchisees may ease due to price stabilization, leading to improved profitability for express delivery companies [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy catalysts in supporting the express delivery sector [18] Group 17 - Huatai Securities recommends maintaining positions in the market while making selective switches, as the A-share market shows signs of strength and a shift towards large-cap growth stocks [19] - The report indicates that sectors with low valuations and potential for price increases are likely to maintain market interest [19] Group 18 - GF Securities expresses confidence in the non-bank sector, suggesting that increased market activity and policy signals could enhance the valuation of brokerage firms [20] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in brokerage performance and the importance of monitoring policy-driven mergers and acquisitions [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England is under pressure to hold a significant portion of its long-term government bonds, potentially for decades, due to market volatility and changing buyer dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Forecasting institutions, including Oxford Economics and HSBC, predict that the Bank of England will limit the sale of its remaining £163 billion (approximately $219 billion) of government bonds with maturities over 20 years, marking a shift in its approach to reducing its crisis-era balance sheet [1]. - The market for long-term UK government bonds is increasingly reliant on more volatile hedge funds and foreign investors, as traditional stable buyers like pension funds reduce their demand [1]. - Recent market events, such as the sell-off of 30-year bonds due to rumors of the Chancellor's dismissal, highlight the fragility of the current market environment [1]. Group 2: Quantitative Tightening Strategy - The Bank of England is currently reducing its bond holdings at a rate of approximately £100 billion per year, with plans for £13 billion in active sales and £87 billion in natural maturities [2]. - There is a potential slowdown in the quantitative tightening process, with expectations of only £26 billion in active sales next year, which could pose market risks [2]. - The Bank of England's Governor has indicated changes in the liquidity of the long-end yield curve, suggesting future sales may be lower than previously anticipated [2]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Michael Saunders, a former rate setter at the Bank of England, advocates for a new strategy where a significant portion of long-term debt will not be sold, aiming to reduce risks to market stability [2][5]. - Saunders' proposal includes retaining £163 billion of long-term bonds while continuing to reduce holdings of bonds with maturities between 3 to 20 years, which could mitigate the risk of market disruption [5]. - The plan involves recognizing losses on certain bonds, which would be offset by the Bank's cash holdings, making the arrangement financially beneficial [5]. Group 4: Historical Context - The Bank of England has purchased more long-term government bonds than other central banks following the financial crisis, Brexit, and the pandemic, necessitating active debt sales while other central banks can allow their balance sheets to shrink naturally [6].

Core Viewpoint - In uncertain times, investors are turning to safe-haven assets such as gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, and currencies like the yen, dollar, and Swiss franc, which are expected to retain or increase value during market turmoil. However, the Singapore dollar is emerging as a potential new alternative safe-haven currency [1]. Group 1: Singapore Dollar as a Safe-Haven Currency - Analysts suggest that the Singapore dollar (SGD) is acting as a "quasi-safe-haven" currency, particularly within Asia and emerging markets, despite not having the same global status as traditional safe-haven currencies [1]. - The SGD has appreciated approximately 6% against the U.S. dollar this year, with Jefferies predicting it may reach parity with the dollar within the next five years [1]. - Singapore's strong institutional framework, resilient economic base, and robust policy-making, especially in fiscal prudence, contribute to the SGD's potential as a safe haven [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Stability - Singapore's monetary policy framework provides "extraordinary stability" to the SGD, which is sought after by safe-haven funds. Unlike most countries, Singapore manages its currency through a policy band rather than interest rates, allowing the SGD to fluctuate within a set range [2]. - The estimated width of this policy band is around 4%, which limits volatility and provides more certainty in the short term [2]. Group 3: Challenges to Global Acceptance - Despite the positive trajectory, the SGD faces challenges in becoming a widely accepted global safe-haven currency, primarily due to the small size of its market. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that the SGD accounted for only 2% of the foreign exchange market, compared to 88% for the U.S. dollar [3]. - The managed nature of Singapore's currency policy, while providing stability, also restricts market speculation and large position builds, limiting liquidity and depth, which are critical characteristics sought by investors in a true global safe haven [3]. - Singapore's economy is heavily reliant on exports, with exports projected to account for 178.8% of GDP in 2024, which may also pose challenges for the SGD's global standing [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts believe that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may not want the SGD to appreciate excessively, as this could undermine Singapore's competitiveness [4]. - The SGD could play a significant role in diversifying currency risk, with potential to be viewed as "Asia's Swiss franc" over time, although it may not reach the status of the yen or dollar [4]. - The establishment of a safe-haven status typically requires decades of crisis response behavior, and while the SGD has performed well during Asian economic downturns, it has not yet become the preferred safe haven during global economic slowdowns [4].

克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫（Dmitry Peskov）上周日在接受俄罗斯记者帕维尔·扎鲁宾（Pavel Zarubin）采访时表示："俄罗斯准备（在乌克兰和平问题上）采取快速行动。"采访片段发布在扎鲁宾 的Telegram账号上。 "对我们来说，首要目标是实现既定目标。我们的目标清晰明确，不会改变，"佩斯科夫说，并补充道， 和平进程并非仅由莫斯科一方决定。 2022年2月，俄罗斯对乌克兰发起"特别军事行动"，目标是"去纳粹化"和"去军事化"乌克兰。 根据俄方的冲突和解备忘录，莫斯科提出多项要求，包括禁止基辅加入军事联盟、乌克兰军队从顿涅茨 克、卢甘斯克、扎波罗热和赫尔松地区撤军（这些地区在2022年9月公投后被俄方吞并）等。 乌克兰称这些条件是"最后通牒"，并要求停火作为有意义谈判的先决条件。 在谈及俄罗斯总统普京与美国总统特朗普可能的会面时，佩斯科夫表示，这样的会面"终将在适当时 候"举行，并称其"有必要"。 "与此同时，他也确认了自己将继续尽一切可能推动和平解决的意图。事实上，普京总统也多次表示， 希望尽快将乌克兰问题的解决推向和平轨道，"他补充道。 他还表示，在举行此类会谈前，或许有必要将"最 ...

Group 1 - The main contracts for coking coal and coke have shown a significant upward trend, with coking coal rising by 6.06% to 989 yuan/ton and coke increasing by 4.33% to 1592 yuan/ton, likely due to calls from some coking enterprises for a second round of price increases starting July 22 [1] - The China Iron and Steel Association has emphasized the need to eliminate "involution" competition in the steel industry, advocating for strict control of capacity increases and smooth exits to prevent overcapacity risks [2] - A market analysis meeting held by the China Coking Industry Association concluded that the current market conditions warrant a price increase for coke, with a consensus to raise prices by 50 yuan/ton for wet coke and 55 yuan/ton for dry coke starting July 22 [4][7] Group 2 - Recent meetings have highlighted the need for coking enterprises to communicate with steel mills to ensure reasonable pricing and maintain a healthy operation within the black industry chain [5][6] - The steel price has seen a notable increase, with Tangshan steel billet rising by 40 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil by 100 yuan/ton, contributing to improved profitability for steel enterprises [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including steel, which is expected to further support the market [2][3] Group 3 - The first round of price increases for coke has been fully implemented, with expectations for further price hikes due to the ongoing positive sentiment in the market [11][12] - The supply of coking coal remains relatively abundant, but the demand from downstream steel and coking enterprises is strong, leading to a positive trading atmosphere [12][13] - The overall sentiment in the market is optimistic, with expectations that the price of coke will continue to rise in the short term [14]

当叙利亚总统府上空硝烟与残骸交织时，白宫西翼的议论声愈发响亮：以色列总理内塔尼亚胡已经失 控。 "'比比'（内塔尼亚胡的昵称）行事像个疯子，整天狂轰滥炸，"一位白宫官员告诉Axios，"这可能会破 坏特朗普正在推进的事。" 另一位美国高级官员还提到上周加沙一座教堂遇袭事件，特朗普还为此致电内塔尼亚胡要求解释。这位 官员大飙脏话："感觉每天都有新麻烦，搞什么鬼？（What the f***?）" 第三位美国官员表示，特朗普政府内部对内塔尼亚胡的质疑日益加剧，认为他"行事冲动、爱惹麻 烦"，"有时就像个不听话的孩子"。 内塔尼亚胡的发言人齐夫·阿格蒙（Ziv Agmon）未回应置评请求。 六位美国官员告诉Axios，尽管美国斡旋的停火协议于上周五平息了叙利亚的冲突升级，但白宫对内塔 尼亚胡及其地区政策的警惕在上周结束时显著升温。 不过，特朗普迄今未公开批评，他是否与顾问们有同样的不满尚不清楚，也不确定他是否认同顾问们近 期对以色列在叙利亚行动的担忧。 事件回顾 上周二，以色列轰炸了一支前往苏韦达市的叙利亚军队坦克车队。据叙利亚人权观察组织数据，截至上 周六，德鲁兹民兵与贝都因人武装部落的暴力冲突已造成700多人死 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration has been pressuring trade partners with tariff threats, but these have not had a lasting impact on the market [1] - Reports indicate that the White House is considering imposing tariffs of 15%-20% on the EU, which caused a temporary dip in the S&P 500 index [1] - Despite the tariff threats, investor sentiment remains strong, with a record increase in risk appetite over the past three months according to Bank of America’s global fund manager survey [1][3] Group 2 - Many investors believe that Trump's aggressive tariff stance is merely a negotiation tactic, with expectations that tariffs will be lowered once trade negotiations progress [4] - There is speculation that even if high tariffs are introduced, they may not withstand legal challenges based on recent court rulings [5] - The recent stock market performance is bolstered by strong corporate earnings and positive economic data, indicating resilience against trade uncertainties [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration initiated a review of SpaceX's federal contracts, but most were deemed essential for the Department of Defense and NASA, highlighting SpaceX's dominant position in the space industry [2][4][5]. Group 1: Government Review and Contracts - The review aimed to identify potential waste in the multi-billion dollar contracts held by SpaceX, but officials found that most contracts could not be terminated due to their importance [2][4]. - A senior official from the General Services Administration (GSA) requested a comprehensive list of current contracts with SpaceX, indicating a thorough examination of the company's agreements with various federal agencies [3][4]. - The review process included meetings between SpaceX's president and White House officials, suggesting ongoing scrutiny of the company's contracts [4]. Group 2: SpaceX's Market Position - SpaceX's leading role in rocket launches and satellite internet services has made it difficult for the government to reduce reliance on the company, as there are few alternatives available [5]. - The company's technological and pricing advantages have led to increased collaboration with government agencies, while also pushing competitors to innovate [5][6]. - Despite challenges faced by competitors in developing their own space vehicles, SpaceX continues to secure government contracts, including a significant $5.9 billion deal for national security missions [6]. Group 3: SpaceX's Services and Innovations - SpaceX's Falcon rockets and Crew Dragon spacecraft are critical to government space missions, with the latter being the only U.S. spacecraft certified for crewed missions to the International Space Station [6]. - The company is expanding its services through the Starlink satellite network, providing high-speed internet to government agencies and enhancing national security capabilities [7].

Group 1 - The EU is preparing to respond to potential tariffs imposed by the US, with a meeting scheduled to discuss countermeasures against President Trump's "no deal" scenario [1][4] - The US is pushing for a universal tariff on EU goods exceeding 10%, with only a few exemptions, including aircraft and certain medical devices [1][3] - The EU has already approved a retaliatory tariff plan targeting $210 billion worth of US goods, focusing on politically sensitive products [4] Group 2 - The EU is considering the implementation of the "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) if negotiations fail, which would grant broad retaliatory powers to EU officials [5][6] - The ACI could allow the EU to impose new taxes on US tech giants, restrict US investments in Europe, and limit US companies' access to EU government contracts [6] - The EU's response strategy includes potential tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods, targeting products like Boeing aircraft and American-made cars [4]

Group 1 - The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) is considering the introduction of 24-hour trading services due to rising demand from retail investors outside regular trading hours [1][2] - The exploration of extended trading hours is part of a broader discussion on potential new products and services, with considerations including required technological upgrades and regulatory implications [2][3] - The current trading hours for LSEG are from 8:00 AM to 4:30 PM, and the revenue from stock trading accounts for only 2.7% of its total revenue in the first quarter of this year [1][2] Group 2 - Major U.S. exchanges have recently applied for 24-hour trading licenses, prompting discussions on how such a business model would operate [3] - The European Securities Exchanges Federation noted that while extended trading hours could attract retail trading, the long-term sustainability and benefits of such a model remain uncertain [3] - Time zone differences allow for U.S. night trading to correspond with daytime in Asia, where countries like South Korea, Japan, and China have active retail trader populations [4]