Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson believes a bull market is forming in U.S. stocks, but the S&P 500 index may face a 5%-10% decline this quarter due to the impact of President Trump's trade policies on corporate balance sheets, which will provide an attractive entry point for investors [1] - The S&P 500 index recently reached a new all-time high, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $11.5 trillion in just a few months, following a brief bear market triggered by Trump's tariffs [1][2] - Wilson noted that the breadth of earnings revisions is improving, indicating that companies are effectively managing the challenges posed by tariffs [2][3] Group 2 - The third quarter is expected to be a concentrated risk period, as the effects of tariffs may start to impact product sales costs, but any market impact is anticipated to be temporary, with investors focusing on growth expectations for 2026 [3] - Recent strong retail sales data in June alleviated some concerns regarding consumer spending, supporting the positive outlook for the market [3] - Despite uncertainties surrounding the White House's trade plans potentially leading to short-term declines, the market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, having already bottomed out in April [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the notion of the Federal Reserve being free from political pressure is a "myth," and bets on interest rate cuts will drive U.S. stocks higher [2][3] - The current situation is compared to the historical conflict between President Lyndon Johnson and Fed Chairman Bill Martin in 1965, highlighting the ongoing tension regarding the Fed's independence [2][3] - Analysts warn that if former President Trump were to dismiss Fed Chairman Powell, it could disrupt financial markets and lead to significant legal confrontations [3] Group 2 - Executives from JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs emphasize the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, noting that any new chair must gain support from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for interest rate adjustments [4] - There is a divergence in rate expectations among policymakers regarding the outlook for interest rate cuts for the remainder of the year, primarily due to differing views on how Trump's tariffs will impact inflation [4] - The market is expected to soon recognize Powell's effective "exit" and begin pricing in the policies of the next potential chair, with a "dovish race" anticipated among candidates like Hassett, Waller, or Walsh [4]

"无论对错，投资者并不认真看待总统关于撤换鲍威尔主席的言论，因为这显然会破坏投资者对其经济 领导力的信心，且几乎注定失败。"投资银行Evercore荣誉董事长拉尔夫·施洛斯斯坦（Ralph Schlosstein）表示，"美联储独立性对我们的经济稳定、美元作为世界储备货币的地位以及全球投资者为 美国赤字融资的意愿都至关重要。" 大型投资者正押注特朗普不会真正兑现其撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的威胁。 据知情人士透露，债券巨头——太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）虽清楚此举可能引发美国国债市场剧烈 波动，但并未因特朗普的威胁调整持仓。 本周早些时候，这家债券管理机构在致客户报告中驳斥了特朗普要求美联储主席辞职及施压央行立即降 息的举动，称"这两者似乎都不太可能实现"。 其他投资者和银行家表示，任何撤换鲍威尔的举动都可能引发市场震荡，损害美债等资产的信心，从而 让特朗普三思而行。多位大银行CEO也警告，破坏美联储独立性可能带来危险后果。 Pimco在报告中指出，共和党在参议院的微弱优势（53席）可能给确认程序带来变数。该公司特别提到 北卡罗来纳州共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯（Thom Tillis）不再寻求连任，且与特朗普关系 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh calls for a comprehensive reform of the Federal Reserve's operations and suggests a policy alliance with the Treasury Department, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy approach [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Policy - Warsh criticizes the current Federal Reserve officials, particularly Chairman Jerome Powell, for their credibility issues and failure to lower interest rates, which aligns with President Trump's demands [1][2]. - There is speculation about Trump's potential actions regarding Powell's position, with discussions among Republican lawmakers about possibly dismissing him [2][3]. - Warsh believes that the Federal Reserve's mechanism change is inevitable and emphasizes the need for a new "Treasury-Fed agreement" to manage national debt issuance effectively [3]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Policy - Warsh argues that the delay in interest rate cuts is a significant flaw and that public pressure from the President on the Federal Reserve is justified [2][3]. - He supports the current policy of quantitative tightening but insists on collaboration between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to lower borrowing costs [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the benchmark interest rate at the end of July but may begin to cut rates in September [6].

美国众议院周四通过稳定币法案（即《GENIUS法案》），为这一与美元挂钩的加密货币代币建立监管 框架，该法案将提交给美国总统特朗普，预计他将签署使其成为法律。 众议院去年曾通过一项稳定币法案，但当时由民主党占多数的参议院未对该法案进行审议。 特朗普在总统竞选期间获得加密货币行业资金支持后，一直寻求全面改革美国加密货币政策。然而，国 会山对特朗普各类加密货币项目的紧张情绪，曾一度威胁到数字资产行业今年的立法希望，因为民主党 人对特朗普及其家人推广个人加密货币项目日益不满。 特朗普的加密货币项目包括1月推出的迷因币$TRUMP，以及他部分持股的加密货币公司"世界自由金 融"（World Liberty Financial）。 众议院议员还通过了另外两项加密货币法案，下一步将提交参议院审议。其中一项法案为加密货币制定 了监管框架（即《CLARITY法案》），另一项则禁止美国发行央行数字货币。 《GENIUS法案》和《CLARITY法案》均获得了显著的两党支持。民主党议员与共和党人一起以308票 赞成、122票反对通过了稳定币法案。 稳定币是一种旨在维持恒定价值（通常与美元1:1挂钩）的加密货币，常被加密货币交易者用 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 欧盟拟新增对美服务关税及出口管制 美联储理事沃勒重申七月应降息 特朗普再次发帖呼吁美联储降息 美国住房主管：议员将指控鲍威尔涉嫌作伪证 美国6月零售销售创今年3月以来新高 超豪华小汽车消费税起征点下调至90万元 现货黄金在美国"恐怖数据"大超预期后跳水，一度跌破3310美元关口，随后跌幅有所收窄，最终收跌0.25%，收报3347.6美元/盎司；现货白银反弹更加显 著，最终收涨0.62%，报38.14美元/盎司。 市场盘点 周四，随着围绕鲍威尔解雇风波的紧张情绪有所平息，且美国经济数据强劲，美元指数走高，最终收涨0.37%，报98.61。美债收益率涨跌不一，基准的10年 期美债收益率收报4.457%，2年期美债收益率收报3.913%。 由于美国经济数据缓解了人们对石油需求恶化的部分担忧，国际油价止步三连跌。WTI原油站上66关口，最终收涨1.33%，报66.31美元/桶；布伦特原油收 涨1.66%，报68.9美元/桶。 美股三大股指集体收涨，道指收涨0.5%、标普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should not lower interest rates for some time due to the inflationary pressures stemming from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, necessitating a tight monetary policy to control inflation expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.1%, indicating a labor market that is "stable and close to full employment" [1]. - Inflation is currently above the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) target of 2%, facing upward pressure from tariffs [1]. - The upcoming PCE data is expected to show a 2.5% year-over-year increase in the PCE price index for June, with the core PCE index rising by 2.8%, higher than May's levels [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut since December of the previous year [2]. - Federal Reserve policymakers are reluctant to resume rate cuts unless they are certain that tariffs will only lead to one-time price adjustments rather than sustained inflation [2]. Group 3: Future Implications - There are indications that trade policies will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, with expectations of further price increases later in the year [2]. - The potential vacancy on the Federal Reserve board, due to the expiration of a term in January, may lead to changes in policy direction, especially with the upcoming end of Powell's term in May [2].

Core Insights - The latest USDA drought report indicates that various major agricultural regions in the U.S. are experiencing drought conditions ranging from moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) as of July 15, 2025, significantly impacting grain, cash crops, and livestock [1] Grain Sector - Durum Wheat: 41% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week, but up 35 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Spring Wheat: 36% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 28 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Winter Wheat: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous week and up 6 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Corn: 9% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 3 percentage points from the previous week but up 4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Soybeans: 7% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [7] - Barley: 59% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but up 33 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Sorghum: 7% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but down 14 percentage points year-on-year [9] - Rice: 1% of the production area is affected by drought, unchanged from the previous week and the same as last year [10] Cash Crop Sector - Cotton: 3% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week but down 16 percentage points year-on-year [11] - Peanuts: 1% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and down 14 percentage points year-on-year [12] - Sunflowers: 8% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 5 percentage points year-on-year [13] - Sugarbeets: 39% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 36 percentage points year-on-year [14] - Sugarcane: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 30 percentage points year-on-year [15] Livestock Sector - Hay: 18% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week but up 2 percentage points year-on-year [16] - Alfalfa Hay: 30% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 13 percentage points year-on-year [17] - Cattle: 15% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week and unchanged year-on-year [18] - Sheep: 29% of the production area is under drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week and up 9 percentage points year-on-year [18] - Milk Cows: 22% of the production area is under drought conditions, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week and up 10 percentage points year-on-year [19] - Hogs: 4% of the production area is under drought conditions, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and down 3 percentage points year-on-year [19]

Core Viewpoint - The return of President Trump to the White House is seen as a positive development for the gold market, with several key factors likely to support gold prices in the coming months, potentially making gold a core asset class in investors' portfolios [1]. Group 1: Central Bank Demand - There is a significant increase in demand for gold from central banks, particularly from BRICS nations like China and India, as part of a broader strategy to de-dollarize [1]. - The People's Bank of China has been accumulating gold reserves for eight consecutive months, indicating a weakening confidence in the US dollar [1]. Group 2: De-dollarization and Trade Policies - Trump's global tariff policies are accelerating the de-dollarization process, reducing reliance on the US dollar as a reserve currency [2]. - The decline in credit quality of developed countries, including the US, is raising concerns in the market, especially after Moody's downgraded the US credit rating [2]. - Trade policies, such as large budget deficits or increased tariffs, are expected to decrease demand for US Treasury bonds, thereby supporting gold prices [2]. Group 3: Interest in Gold ETFs - The decline in yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds, along with inflationary pressures, is reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to a resurgence of interest in gold ETFs and other alternatives [3]. - In the first half of 2025, North America led the global inflow of funds into gold ETFs, with a total inflow of $38 billion in the first half of this year, marking the strongest performance since the first half of 2020 [3]. Group 4: Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment - Gold prices have remained above $3,250 per ounce for most of June, indicating potential upward momentum as market volatility returns [3]. - The current macroeconomic environment supports the view that gold is not just a crisis hedge but is becoming a core asset class in modern investment strategies [3].

"历史告诉我们，货币政策执行的独立运作是必要的，"沃什周四接受CNBC采访时强调，"但这并不意味着美联储在所有事务上都应保持独立。" 特朗普正在考虑明年5月鲍威尔任期结束后提名新主席人选，而沃什的立场转变恰逢特朗普施压美联储降息的声浪达到顶峰。 SHMET 网讯： 美联储前理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）近日公开表示，美联储的独立性对货币政策实施"至关重要"，但他同时指出，在鲍威尔领导下，美联储已越权涉足 其缺乏权威的政策领域。 实战考验 2006年，35岁的沃什被小布什任命为美联储史上最年轻理事。金融危机期间，他协助促成富国银行收购美联银行，并主导了2008年秋季向九大银行注资数千 亿美元的计划。 芝加哥大学教授兰德尔·克罗兹纳（Randall Kroszner）评价："那是动荡时期，沃什经历了实战考验。" 如今，沃什主张对美联储进行彻底改革。他在福克斯新闻上呼吁："我们需要的是美联储的政权更迭，这不只关乎主席人选，而是需要更换一批人。必须打 破固有思维，因为现行模式已经失效。" 他批评美联储的经济预测模型过时、忽视货币供应量作用，且政策沟通过于频繁且短视。 美国银行指出，26%的人认为美国财长贝森 ...