AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 策略师们表示："我们预测2026年股市上涨的动力，几乎完全来自企业盈利增长。"而盈利增长将"由人工智能、'出海'战略以及反内卷相 关政策提供支撑"。 A股单日成交额创4个月新高 高盛策略师预测，2026年内地投资者通过港股通净买入港股的规模有望达到2000亿美元，再创历史纪录。与此同时，海外投资者预计将 调整对中国股市的低配仓位，这或将为市场带来100亿美元的资金流入。 中国股市的上涨势头已强劲延续至新的一年。尽管中国股市2025年已经录得大幅上涨，但高盛仍与其他多家大型机构一道，维持对该市 场的积极展望。这一乐观判断，反映出市场对"盈利扩张、政策扶持、新增增长动能将持续吸引投资者入场"的信心。 2026年开年以来，沪深300指数已累计上涨3.5%，创下四年以来的最高水平；MSCI中国指数涨幅约3.6%，跑赢同期标普500指数。 市场交投热度也印证了投资者的高涨情绪：A股周二单日成交额飙升至2.8万亿元人民币（折合4010亿美元），不仅创下去年9月以来的新 高，还远超过去五年1.13万亿元的日均成交额。投资者融资融券余额同样徘徊在历史高点附近。当日沪深300指数上涨1.6 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the market on January 6 was the significant rise in storage-related stocks, with companies like SanDisk (SNDK.O) leading the charge, seeing a price increase of over 27% and a cumulative rise of nearly 43% over the last five trading days [1] - Micron Technology (MU.O) also experienced a notable increase of approximately 10%, reaching a market capitalization exceeding $380 billion, while Western Digital (WDC.O) and Seagate Technology (STX.O) saw gains of over 16% and 14% respectively, making the storage sector one of the strongest industry groups of the day [1] - The rise in storage stocks is attributed to heightened investor expectations regarding semiconductor and storage demand, driven by robust AI infrastructure needs, leading to a reassessment of the memory and storage market [1] Group 2 - The overall market showed a clear trend of sector rotation, with strong upward momentum in the storage and semiconductor sectors, positively impacting related indices such as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index [2] - The optimism surrounding AI and data center infrastructure growth was bolstered by product launches and technology roadmaps presented at the CES, leading to higher valuations for companies in the storage sector [2] - Despite the strong performance of storage stocks, cooling and auxiliary equipment stocks related to data centers showed relative weakness, indicating a market preference for companies directly benefiting from rising AI and data storage demands [2] Group 3 - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic data, including labor market and inflation indicators, which will provide guidance for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path and may influence risk asset pricing [3] - The ability of the storage sector to maintain growth momentum amidst high baseline effects and changing supply chain dynamics will be a key variable for investors [3]

Core Insights - The establishment of the Saudi Metal Exchange marks a significant step in developing the country's metal and mineral market infrastructure, with the feasibility study completed and implementation in the final stages [1] - The exchange aims to support the mining industry by providing diverse financing tools, enhancing price stability, and creating an integrated system for trading, valuation, and talent attraction [1][2] - This initiative aligns with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, focusing on economic diversification and reducing dependence on oil exports, with substantial investments in mining projects expected by 2025 [1] Industry Developments - The Saudi mining sector has seen increased policy activity, including expanded exploration licenses and efforts to attract foreign investment, which complement the establishment of the metal exchange [2] - The exchange is expected to enhance Saudi Arabia's position in the global mineral market and provide local mining companies with a more efficient and transparent trading and financing platform [2] - The launch of the exchange will help create a domestic price discovery mechanism, reducing reliance on external price references and providing more stability to the local industry [2] Challenges and Considerations - The successful launch of the exchange will depend on addressing several challenges, including the development of trading rules that align with international standards, ensuring market liquidity, and establishing risk control and regulatory frameworks [2] - Key variables to monitor include the official launch date of the exchange, the selection of initial trading commodities, and the progress of regulatory details, which will directly impact market participants' expectations [3]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a three-day rally at the beginning of January, indicating potential upward momentum for U.S. stocks for the remainder of the month [1] - Historical data shows that January is the most active month for new capital inflows into the stock market, with an average monthly purchase ratio of stock mutual funds being the highest each January since 1984 [1] - The probability of the S&P 500 index rising in January is 62% since 1928, while the Nasdaq 100 index has a 70% probability of rising in January since 1985 [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index reached a historical high, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 49,000 for the first time, with the Dow gaining approximately 3% since the beginning of the month [2] - Market volatility remains low, with the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) slightly above 14, having dropped below 14 before the Christmas holiday [2] - Retail investor enthusiasm is contributing to the expectation of billions of dollars in new capital inflows into the stock market this month, with corporate earnings growth momentum spreading beyond the "seven giants" [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's latest advancements in autonomous driving technology and AI platforms are reshaping the competitive landscape of the autonomous driving industry, drawing attention from various automotive manufacturers [1][2]. Group 1: Nvidia's Developments - Nvidia unveiled its new autonomous driving AI model, Alpamayo, and related hardware at CES 2026, marking a significant advancement in decision-making capabilities for autonomous driving [1]. - The new platform utilizes advanced AI reasoning to handle complex driving scenarios, enabling traditional automakers and emerging electric vehicle companies to enhance their autonomous driving capabilities rapidly [1]. - Nvidia adopts an open platform model for its autonomous driving technology, allowing partners to integrate it according to their product strategies, which has attracted interest from multiple car manufacturers, including Mercedes-Benz [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Nvidia's announcement, Tesla's stock price fell over 4%, while Nvidia's stock experienced a slight decline [1]. - Market analysts believe Nvidia's progress may intensify competition in the autonomous taxi and advanced driver-assistance systems sectors, putting pressure on Tesla's market expectations in the short term [2]. - Tesla's recent slowdown in sales growth and uncertainty regarding its autonomous driving technology have affected investor sentiment, reflecting in stock price volatility [3]. Group 3: Tesla's Response and Strategy - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk publicly responded to concerns about increased competition, expressing confidence in Tesla's advantages in data accumulation, algorithm training, and large-scale fleet operations [2]. - Musk emphasized that the challenges of achieving fully autonomous driving are significant and that Tesla has years of experience in overcoming these hurdles, maintaining confidence in the company's long-term strategy [2]. - Tesla's autonomous driving technology is closely linked to its Robotaxi service, which is currently in limited operation but aims for broader deployment by 2026, despite facing regulatory and technical challenges [2]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The industry is closely monitoring variables such as the commercial rollout speed of Nvidia's autonomous driving platform, the performance of partner vehicles in real-world conditions, and the reliability and safety of Tesla's proprietary technology in complex scenarios [3]. - The regulatory environment will also play a crucial role in determining the future competitive landscape of the autonomous driving industry [3]. - Key indicators for observing industry trends will include the release of more demonstration data from Nvidia's partner vehicles and the expansion of Tesla's Robotaxi deployment [3].

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the U.S. labor market will directly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment path this year, with multiple employment data releases expected to provide insights into the overall labor market condition [1] Group 1: Employment Data Releases - The ADP National Employment Report is set to be released, with a consensus forecast predicting an addition of 47,000 private sector jobs in December, rebounding from a negative growth of 32,000 in November [1] - The JOLTS report will provide data on job vacancies and labor turnover, with expectations of job vacancies slightly decreasing to 7.6 million in November, although some analysts predict an increase to 7.8 million [2][3] - The Indeed job posting index showed a rebound in November and has remained high in the first two weeks of December, indicating strong labor demand [3] Group 2: Unemployment Rate Expectations - Economists predict that the U.S. unemployment rate will slightly decrease from 4.6% in November to 4.5% in December, which may boost investor confidence [4] - The unemployment rate is considered a reliable indicator of labor market conditions, especially in the context of government shutdowns and labor supply issues distorting other data [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - If the labor market shows signs of recovery, the Federal Reserve may choose to maintain interest rates during the upcoming meeting on January 27-28, with a potential for a prolonged pause [5] - The Federal Reserve anticipates only one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027, while market expectations suggest at least two cuts this year, with rates potentially dropping to a range of 3% to 3.25% by early December [5]

伊朗当局于周二对德黑兰大巴扎爆发的大规模抗议活动实施了强硬的警方镇压。目前这场骚乱已持续至 第二周，伊朗本币汇率也跌至历史新低。 社交媒体上流传的视频显示，大批示威者聚集在伊朗首都的核心市场——这里堪称伊朗经济的"心脏地 带"。 《华尔街日报》母公司News Corp旗下的Storyful核实的视频画面显示，催泪瓦斯在大巴扎狭窄的街巷及 附近地铁站扩散开来，示威人群随即四散奔逃。经核实的视频还显示，警方还向大巴扎以北约1.7英里 处的西纳医院（Sina Hospital）范围内发射了催泪瓦斯。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 去年6月伊朗与以色列爆发惨烈战争后，伊朗的经济状况进一步恶化。自去年夏季以来，伊朗本币兑美 元汇率已贬值约60%，进而将国内通胀水平推至历史新高。 在周二，伊朗里亚尔兑美元汇率跌至147万里亚尔兑换1美元，创下历史最低纪录。 伊朗政府虽已承认示威者的经济诉求，但同时也动用安全部队试图控制抗议活动的蔓延态势。伊朗人权 活动人士组织于周一晚间表示，目前这场已扩散至全国88座城市的骚乱，已造成至少1200人被捕，至少 29人死亡。 该组织还指出，伊朗当局还实施了局部断 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 预测市场交易员加大了押注力度，他们认为在美国总统特朗普突袭委内瑞拉之后，更多国际变局或将接 踵而至。 在这些蓬勃发展的预测平台上，交易员近期正围绕白宫下一步的行动重心下注。华尔街与普通民众都注 意到，特朗普政府正转向采取快速强硬的国际打击手段，市场的押注热情也随之高涨。 派珀・桑德勒公司（Piper Sandler）分析师安迪・拉普里尔（Andy Laperriere）于周一向客户表示："投 资者应明确的核心要点是，特朗普在动用军事力量一事上，正变得越发得心应手且信心十足。他的第二 任期第一年，就以充沛的行动力和冒险主义为鲜明特征，如今这种风格已经延伸到了军事领域。" 从投注金额规模来看，一个体量更大的预测市场显示，"特朗普将收购这块丹麦领土至少部分区域"的概 率稳定在25%左右，高于上周晚些时候不足20%的水平。 Kalshi平台上，这两个相关问题的累计投注金额已接近250万美元。 格陵兰岛领导人曾多次驳斥特朗普有关美国有意接管该岛的言论。但在《大西洋月刊》上周末刊发的一 篇专访中，特朗普重申了其想要夺取这块欧洲属地的主张。 "我们确实需要格陵兰岛， ...

Core Viewpoint - The arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro has reignited the debate over who has the rightful claim to Venezuela's gold reserves stored in the Bank of England, valued at approximately $1.95 billion [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Legal Disputes - Venezuela has approximately 31 tons of gold stored in the Bank of England, representing about 15% of its total foreign reserves, with a value that has likely increased due to rising gold prices [1]. - The gold has been a point of contention in London courts, involving the UK government and the political turmoil in Venezuela, particularly since the disputed presidential election in 2018 [1][2]. - The Venezuelan government, under Maduro, has claimed the gold is needed to address the COVID-19 pandemic, while opposition leader Juan Guaidó has also claimed ownership, complicating the legal situation [2]. Group 2: International Relations and Geopolitical Context - The UK, along with many other countries, does not recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, which has influenced the decision to freeze the gold reserves [2]. - The UK Foreign Secretary emphasized the importance of promoting a transition to democracy in Venezuela, which guides the UK's approach to recognizing the government [3]. - The freezing of sovereign reserve assets is not unique to Venezuela, as similar actions have been taken against Russia and other nations, reflecting a growing trend in international relations [3][4]. Group 3: Market Implications - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the freezing of assets are contributing factors to the recent rise in international gold prices, driven by a decline in trust towards the U.S. under Trump's administration and the disintegration of a rules-based global order [3]. - Historical precedents of asset freezes date back to the early 20th century, indicating a long-standing practice in international relations during times of conflict [4].

Group 1: International News - Venezuela and the U.S. are negotiating the issue of oil exports to the U.S. [10] - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on tariff issues on January 9 [10] - Saudi Arabia will open its financial market to all foreign investors [10] Group 2: Market Overview - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, closing up 0.28% at 98.59, the highest in over two weeks [3] - Spot gold rose 1.04% to $4495.09 per ounce, while spot silver increased by 6.06% to $81.25 per ounce, reaching a high not seen since December 29 of the previous year [3][7] - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 2.22% to $56.86 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.07% to $60.43 per barrel [3][7] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - European major stock indices mostly rose, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.18% and the German DAX up 0.09% [4] - U.S. stock indices all increased, with the Dow Jones up 0.99% and the S&P 500 up 0.6%, both reaching new highs [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.38%, with significant gains in technology and financial sectors [5] Group 4: A-share Market - The three major A-share indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.5%, marking a 13-day winning streak and a ten-year high [6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 260.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - The insurance sector was active, with notable gains in stocks like New China Life Insurance, which rose over 6% [6]