Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia has faced production issues with the GB200 NVL72 rack, leading to a second reduction in its CoWoS supply and shipments falling below targets [1] - KeyBanc analysts expect Nvidia's Q2 revenue to be $45.1 billion, slightly below market expectations of $45.6 billion, but anticipate a Q3 guidance of $53.5 billion, exceeding the FactSet consensus of $51.8 billion [3] - Market sentiment remains positive due to Nvidia's strong position in the generative AI sector, with investors focusing on its business in China, the impact of U.S. export controls, and feedback on the Blackwell platform and NVLink technology [3] Group 2: AMD - KeyBanc forecasts AMD's Q2 revenue to be $7.51 billion, above market expectations of $7.41 billion, with Q3 guidance expected to reach $8.63 billion, also higher than the consensus of $8.25 billion [4] - Despite maintaining an "equal weight" rating due to uncertainties in the data center GPU business and potential weakness in PC sales, AMD has made progress in the AI market [4] - Investors are expected to focus on customer feedback for the MI355 chip, annual AI-related revenue forecasts, traditional server business performance, and future plans for the MI400 series [4] Group 3: Broadcom - KeyBanc anticipates Broadcom's Q3 revenue to be $15.8 billion, in line with market expectations, while Q4 revenue is projected to reach $17.7 billion, surpassing the consensus of $17 billion [5] - Investors will be monitoring Broadcom's AI business outlook, ASIC order backlog, customer collaborations, and updates related to trade tensions with China and the development of the iPhone 17 in partnership with Apple [5] Group 4: Qualcomm and Monolithic Power Systems - KeyBanc holds a cautious outlook on Qualcomm and Monolithic Power Systems, with Monolithic expected to regain some market share on Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra HGX platform, but overall market share growth is limited due to a decline in enterprise data business [6] - Qualcomm's performance in the June quarter is expected to benefit from short-term gains due to subsidies for Chinese head-mounted devices, but guidance for the September quarter may be lowered as subsidy funds decrease [6] - Overall sentiment towards Qualcomm is negative, with concerns over Apple's in-house baseband chip development and a slowdown in Android smartphone demand impacting future performance guidance [6]

Group 1 - The European ministers are optimistic about reaching a trade agreement with the Trump administration before the August 1 deadline, aiming to maintain the $1.7 trillion bilateral trade relationship [2] - Trump's fluctuating sentiments towards the EU, sometimes friendly and other times accusatory, contribute to the ongoing threat of a 30% tariff [2] - The EU trade chief indicated that continuing trade in the traditional transatlantic manner would be nearly impossible under such tariffs, effectively prohibiting trade [2] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that an average tariff rate of 35% on EU goods, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from Brussels, could reduce Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [3] - The potential economic loss for Germany due to tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% could exceed €200 billion by 2028, impacting Chancellor Merz's plans for tax cuts and infrastructure spending [3] - The long-term implications of high tariffs raise concerns about how Europe will compensate for lost economic activity to fund essential services and military restructuring [3] Group 3 - The EU has made progress in establishing preliminary agreements with new trade partners, but faces challenges in finalizing these agreements [4] - Analysts suggest that the confrontation with Trump may provide the EU with an opportunity to push through long-delayed single market reforms and rebalance its economy away from heavy reliance on exports [4] Group 4 - The IMF estimates that internal barriers to the free movement of goods within the EU equate to tariffs of 44% on goods and 110% on services [5] - Proposed reforms to create a more open cross-border capital market have seen little progress over the past decade [5] - The EU remains open to negotiations while preparing retaliatory measures in case talks break down, with uncertainty potentially influencing Trump's decision-making [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Securities Depository (ECSD) warns that the EU's plan to invest frozen Russian assets into higher-risk investments to increase aid to Ukraine could be tantamount to "confiscation" [1][3] Group 1: Financial Implications - Approximately €191 billion of Russian central bank assets are currently frozen in the ECSD due to Western sanctions, and the EU Commission is exploring ways to extract more value from these assets [1] - The ECSD has paid €4 billion to Ukraine last year and €1.8 billion this year, with plans to potentially create a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to manage these assets [2] - The proposal to shift cash into higher-risk asset classes comes as profits from these assets have been declining due to lower interest rates from the European Central Bank [1] Group 2: Legal and Risk Considerations - Creating an SPV would legally imply "confiscation" of cash from the ECSD, while still holding the obligation to return it to the Russian central bank, leading to significant legal and financial risks [3] - The ECSD is facing over 100 lawsuits related to frozen Russian assets, including those belonging to oligarchs and other sanctioned entities [3] - Russia has already confiscated €33 billion of assets belonging to ECSD clients that were previously frozen in its corresponding institution in Moscow [3] Group 3: Market Integration and Regulation - The ECSD is keen on advancing the EU's initiative to integrate its fragmented capital markets, aiming to unlock untapped savings and improve financing for companies [4] - The ECSD plans to provide a "single access point" for retail and institutional investors across the 27 member states [4] - The CEO of the ECSD supports more centralized regulation of central securities depositories as a key element of the EU capital markets initiative [4]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 自美国总统特朗普第二任期开始不久后，威胁对国际贸易体系进行数十年来最大规模的全面重塑以来， 主流经济学家就一直警告物价将大幅上涨。 但现在，2025年已经过半，这场半个世纪以来最深刻的贸易重组也已进行多月，所谓"关税推动的通 胀"却迟迟没有出现。 从美国的财政数据来看，关税确实已经实施。财政部目前已征收创纪录的1000亿美元关税，今年预计将 达到3000亿美元。这些关税由美国进口商，如沃尔玛及其他零售商在商品入境时支付。 关税需要一段时间才会逐步传导到终端价格，并最终影响官方通胀指标中的整体价格水平。 然而，真正让人困惑的是：目前关税带来的价格上涨在通胀数据中完全没有体现。 在过去的连续四个月里，美国劳工统计局公布的官方通胀数据都低于预期，5月的CPI通胀仅为2.4%。 总统经济顾问委员会（CEA）上周甚至发表简报称，进口价格实际上在下降。 通胀数据中为何看不到关税冲击？《财富》杂志采访的顶级经济学家们给出了一些解释。几乎所有受访 经济学家都提到：关税并不意味着卖家可以"直接涨价"，而是引发进口商、出口商与美国消费者之间一 场复杂的博弈。不同商品和行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a consolidation phase around $3,300 per ounce, with investors awaiting clearer signals regarding interest rate policies and trade situations [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Joe Cavatoni from the World Gold Council indicates that the recent imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. government serves as a reminder that gold may also face similar tariff adjustments in the future [1] - The current price of gold reflects a lack of clarity among market participants regarding key driving factors, with prices remaining stable around $3,300 [2][3] - Gold has seen a significant increase of nearly 26% this year, which is notable compared to the average expected return rate of around 8% [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The annual growth rate of gold production is expected to remain between 1% and 2.5%, aligning with the World Gold Council's forecasts [3] - Small-scale artisanal mining contributes approximately 20% to the total gold supply, and the organization is taking measures to regulate this sector [3] - Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, accounting for about 20% to 25% of global annual gold consumption over the past three to four years [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that central banks will continue to be active in the gold market, with 50% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months [4] - A report on gold demand trends will be released soon, which is expected to show strong central bank demand for gold in the second quarter [4]

此前四个月，预测者均高估了CPI读数，他们如今也预计6月通胀将出现加速上涨。家具、玩具、娱乐 用品及汽车等受关税影响的品类涨价，被认为将终结通胀持续温和的局面。 根据经济学家的共识预测，美国6月整体CPI和核心CPI均将环比上涨0.3%，从同比增速来看，整体CPI 和核心CPI预计将分别录得2.7%和3%的涨幅，远高于美联储的目标水平。 关税推升通胀的首个真正信号？ AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 自特朗普在第二任期内发动关税战以来，经济学家一直警告，关税将推高美国通胀。周二北京时间 20:30公布的美国6月消费者价格报告（CPI）或将验证这一判断。 美联储官员与私营部门预测者普遍认为，随着企业开始将特朗普关税成本转嫁给消费者，今夏通胀将回 升。尽管许多企业最初通过提前囤货、牺牲利润率吸收部分成本来保护消费者，但如今部分企业已别无 选择。 法国外贸银行CIB Americas首席美国经济学家克里斯·霍奇（Chris Hodge）说："6月CPI是显示关税真正 开始产生明显影响的第一个指标。" 霍奇表示，"我关注的是汽车和服装，上个月这两个行业的价格涨幅都非常低，这与市场预期非常不 符 ...

Group 1 - Meta Platforms plans to invest several hundred billion dollars in building multiple large AI data centers to enhance its competitive edge in attracting top engineering talent [1] - The first data center, "Prometheus," is expected to be operational by 2026, with another center named "Hyperion" scalable to 5 gigawatts in the coming years [1] - Meta aims to become the first AI lab to launch a supercluster exceeding 1 gigawatt, as highlighted in a report by industry publication SemiAnalysis [1] Group 2 - The company reported nearly $165 billion in revenue last year and has restructured its AI business into a "Superintelligence Labs" department following setbacks with its open-source Llama 4 model and core employee departures [2] - Meta is betting that the Superintelligence Labs will generate new cash flows through Meta AI applications, image-to-video advertising tools, and smart glasses [3] - Analysts note that while AI investments have improved ad performance, the scale of current investments is aimed at long-term competition to develop leading AI models, which may take time to yield results [3] Group 3 - Meta has increased its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to between $64 billion and $72 billion to strengthen its position against competitors like OpenAI and Google [3] - The company's stock rose by 1% on Monday and has increased over 20% year-to-date [3]

Group 1 - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon may fully commit to cryptocurrency, a shift from his previous stance labeling it a scam [1] - Coinbase's market capitalization has surpassed $100 billion for the first time, reaching approximately $100.36 billion, driven by a 50% increase in stock price over the past month [2] - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on key cryptocurrency legislation this week, including the Clarity Act and the GENIUS Act, which could establish the first major cryptocurrency laws in the U.S. [3] Group 2 - QCP Capital maintains a structurally bullish outlook on Bitcoin, which has surged past $122,000, driven by technical breakthroughs and increased institutional demand [4] - Coinbase is launching the Pump.fun (PUMP) token on the Base network, labeled as experimental, with trading expected to open on July 15, 2025, subject to liquidity conditions [5] - Bernstein analysts predict the cryptocurrency bull market may extend until early 2026, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [8][9] Group 3 - Hungary has enacted one of the strictest cryptocurrency regulations globally, classifying unauthorized cryptocurrency transactions as crimes, leading to significant confusion in the fintech sector [10] - The Trump administration's regulatory easing is enabling cryptocurrency companies to penetrate the U.S. banking sector, with firms like Ripple and Circle applying for national trust bank licenses [11] - The OCC, Fed, and FDIC have issued a joint statement outlining rules for banks holding customer cryptocurrency assets, emphasizing compliance with existing laws and risk management [12] Group 4 - Vanguard Group has become a major shareholder in Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), holding over 20 million shares, despite previously criticizing Bitcoin as an unsuitable long-term investment [13] - Kazakhstan's central bank plans to invest its gold and foreign exchange reserves into cryptocurrency assets, exploring aggressive strategies for higher returns [14][15] - Bhutan's government has sold $59.47 million worth of Bitcoin in four days but still holds approximately $1.4 billion in Bitcoin [16]

日本10年期国债收益率周二攀升至2008年以来最高水平，市场对本月参议院选举前财政支出的担忧持续发酵。 有媒体报道称，将于周日举行的参议院选举中，日本执政联盟或难以维持多数席位，日本国债因此承压。在日本努力与美国达成贸易协议之际，这将加 剧政治不稳定的风险。 一家资产管理公司相关人士说："人们越来越担心，如果要求削减消费税的在野党势力扩大影响力，财政状况将会恶化。" 据日本《朝日新闻》周二称，日本首相石破茂领导的执政党自民党可能在周日的选举中赢得约35个席位，低于自民党及其联盟伙伴公明党为捍卫多数席 位所需的50个席位。该报道是基于7月13日至14日对选民进行的电话和网络调查，以及该报记者在全国范围内进行的调查。由于生活成本上升，包括日 本主食大米价格飙升，石破茂政府的支持率下滑。 随着参议院选举临近，投资者正密切关注日本预算风险——执政党提议发放现金补贴，在野党则计划推行减税政策。 尽管日本财务省已减少超长期债券发行，但借贷成本仍在持续攀升。部分大型寿险公司也在回避超长债，在日本央行逐步缩减购债规模之际，需求缺口 正在显现。 全球范围内，由于担忧各国政府支出超过承受能力，长期国债同样普遍下跌。德国30年期国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has broken out of its previous trading range, reaching over $123,000, driven by favorable policies and significant capital inflows [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of policy support, including the upcoming stablecoin legislation and relaxed regulatory stances allowing banks to offer digital asset custody services [1] - A short squeeze has led to billions in liquidated short positions, contributing to a 15% increase in Bitcoin's price over the past week [1][4] - Institutional investors and companies are heavily accumulating Bitcoin, with record low outflows from exchanges indicating a lack of sellers to meet demand [4][5] Group 2: Institutional Involvement - Over $2.7 billion flowed into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs last week, marking one of the highest weekly inflows since their launch in January 2024 [5][7] - BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has surpassed $85 billion in market value, with predictions of reaching $100 billion soon [5] - New companies are entering the market, raising funds to purchase cryptocurrencies, indicating a shift towards institutional participation in the current bull market [7] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $150,000 soon, with some suggesting a potential target of $250,000 by year-end [4] - The demand for Bitcoin futures remains strong, with open interest reaching a record $86.3 billion, reflecting bullish sentiment among traders [7][8] - Despite the positive momentum, there are concerns about market vulnerabilities, particularly related to geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in risk appetite on Wall Street [8]