AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国众议院议长约翰逊上周日表示，他相信自己已掌握足够的共和党票数，能在几天内结束政府部分停 摆的状态，此后众议院将就移民和海关执法局的改革进行为期两周的辩论。 他在一档节目中表示："我有信心我们最迟能在周二完成这件事。我们目前面临把所有人召集回华盛顿 的后勤挑战。"受一场影响美国东南部出行的暴风雪影响，交通问题依然存在。 在国会未能批准一项维持大范围运作资金的协议后，美国于上周六进入了原本预计会很短暂的停摆状 态。参议院上周五轻松通过了一项支出计划，但当时众议院处于休会状态。 共和党和民主党议员一直在努力确保关于移民执法的辩论不会扰乱其他政府运作。这与去年秋天形成了 鲜明对比，当时两党在一场关于医疗保健的争端中互不相让，导致了创纪录的43天停摆，并给美国经济 造成了约110亿美元的损失。 参议院批准的协议将国土安全部与更广泛的支出计划剥离。这将允许立法者在考虑对联邦移民特工实施 新限制的同时，批准五角大楼和劳工部等机构的资金。此前，两名美国公民在明尼阿波利斯遭枪杀，引 发了轩然大波。 所在的共和党在众议院仅拥有微弱多数的约翰逊表示，"我们的意图"是在周 ...

Core Insights - The volatility in the U.S. stock market is significantly lower compared to other asset classes, with gold and oil experiencing notable fluctuations [1] - Geopolitical risks are driving increased volatility in commodities and currencies, while stock market volatility remains concentrated at the individual stock level [1][2] - Gold has seen a remarkable rise in 2026, achieving its largest monthly gain since 1999, despite a recent sharp decline [1][2] Group 1: Market Volatility - U.S. stock market volatility is subdued, while gold and oil markets are experiencing heightened fluctuations [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) remains below its one-year average, indicating low overall market volatility despite individual stock movements [1] - The divergence in stock price movements has led to a decrease in overall volatility metrics, with individual stocks like Microsoft showing significant price drops [2] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold's recent performance has been characterized by a significant increase in both spot prices and volatility, with a record inflow into gold ETFs [2] - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has attracted over $20 billion in the past eight months, reflecting strong investor interest [2] - The implied volatility of GLD has reached historical highs relative to the S&P 500, indicating a strong demand for bullish bets on gold [2] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar has faced significant downward pressure, particularly against the Japanese yen, following geopolitical developments and comments from President Trump [4][5] - The appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair has led to a more stable bond market, with investors showing interest in shorting long-term bond volatility [5] - Despite low implied volatility in the bond market, there is a narrowing path for potential U.S. interest rate cuts, as indicated by options on secured overnight financing rates (SOFR) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is shifting from direct price competition to financial incentives as companies respond to regulatory pressures against price wars, raising questions about the sustainability and risks of this strategy [2][6]. Group 1: Financial Promotions - Tesla initiated a financial promotion with a "7-year low-interest" plan, offering a minimum down payment of 79,900 yuan and monthly payments of 1,918 yuan for the Model 3 [2]. - Xiaomi, Li Auto, and other companies quickly followed suit with similar financing options, highlighting a trend towards extended loan terms and lower monthly payments to attract consumers [3]. - The trend of "7-year low-interest" financing has become a standard offering among major automakers, with various companies providing competitive down payment and monthly payment options [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - There is a growing consumer demand for flexible payment options, particularly among younger buyers, which can lead to an "equivalent price reduction" effect [4]. - The automotive market is facing significant pressure, with retail sales of passenger vehicles dropping by 28% year-on-year in early January 2026, prompting companies to adopt financial promotions to stimulate demand [6]. - The impending reduction of tax incentives for electric vehicles is expected to increase consumer costs, further motivating companies to offer attractive financing solutions [6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Policy Environment - Recent policies from financial regulators have allowed for the extension of personal consumption loans to 7 years, making low-interest financing a compliant option for automakers [7]. - The government has introduced fiscal subsidies for qualifying personal consumption loans, which can help offset the costs of low-interest financing for consumers [8]. - The inclusion of the automotive sector in key fiscal subsidy areas indicates a supportive regulatory environment for financial promotions in the industry [7]. Group 4: Financing and Leasing Controversies - Many automakers are incorporating financing leasing services into their promotional strategies, which can create confusion among consumers regarding ownership and contractual obligations [9]. - The financing leasing model, while innovative, has faced criticism for potentially misleading consumers about ownership rights and responsibilities [10]. - The automotive financing leasing sector is undergoing regulatory improvements to enhance transparency and protect consumer interests [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair has shifted market focus from short-term interest rates to the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its role in the market [1] Group 1: Warsh's Critique and Potential Actions - Warsh has been a vocal critic of the Fed's balance sheet expansion, suggesting he may quickly act to reduce asset size, which has led to speculation about rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1][2] - He believes the Fed has overstepped its bounds, aligning with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's desire for reform, but acknowledges that significant changes could impact long-term rates and major markets crucial for global financial institutions [1][2] - Warsh's past support for quantitative easing (QE) has turned into criticism, leading to his resignation from the Fed due to dissatisfaction with ongoing asset purchases [2][4] Group 2: Implications for Government and Market - If the Fed withdraws, it may conflict with the government's goal of lowering long-term borrowing costs, potentially increasing pressure on the Treasury and other U.S. agencies to manage the market more actively [2] - Warsh's approach could lead to a tightening of financial conditions, allowing the Fed to cut benchmark rates significantly [2][4] - The need for a new Treasury-Fed agreement, similar to the 1951 accord, has been emphasized by Warsh to redefine the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury [5] Group 3: Market Sensitivity and Future Outlook - The financial market has shown sensitivity to even minor changes in liquidity, as evidenced by past instances where the Fed had to intervene to alleviate funding pressures [5][6] - Analysts suggest that there is some flexibility within the Fed's definition of "ample" reserves, which could allow for adjustments in asset purchases and financing costs [7][8] - The current framework makes it difficult to envision a shift in policy soon, but the addition of a more hawkish member to the Fed could suppress future asset purchases or reinvestment policies [8]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国政府进入技术性、部分"停摆"状态 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席 多位美联储官员认为现在无需降息 CME上调金银铂钯期货保证金比例 美媒：美方释放与伊朗谈判信号，双方或在土耳其举行会晤 欧佩克+八个成员国将维持原定计划，在三月暂停上调石油产量 日本在1月份未进行日元干预 国家统计局：1月制造业PMI为49.3%，环比降0.8个百分点 上期所调整白银期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例 多只LOF今日将停牌1小时 市场盘点 上周五，在美国总统特朗普宣布前美联储理事沃什为下一任美联储主席人选后 ，美元指数大幅走强，并冲上97关口上方，最终涨1.02%，报97.13；基准的 10年期美债收益率收报4.238%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年期美债收益率收报3.539%。 现货黄金自欧盘时段开启跌势，盘中一度暴跌12%至4680美元一线，创1983年以来最大单日跌幅，单日振幅近770美元，且抹去本周所有涨幅，最终收跌 9.19%，报4883.45美元/盎司， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp declines in gold and silver prices, with gold dropping approximately 9% and silver around 26%, are seen as a natural correction following significant prior gains, as both metals were technically overbought [1][4][5] Price Movements - On Friday, spot gold closed at $4,883.45 per ounce, down over $700 from the weekly high of $5,596, marking a 2.06% decline. Spot silver closed at $85 per ounce, down over $36 from the weekly high of $121.6, reflecting a 17.64% drop [1] - Gold experienced its largest single-day drop since 1983, while silver recorded its largest drop ever, with January's cumulative gains narrowing to 13% for gold and 19% for silver [1][4] Market Analysis - Analysts noted that the previous surge in metal prices was unsustainable, with gold and silver rising nearly 20% and over 40% respectively in January, leading to a market correction [4] - The volatility in the metals market has been exacerbated by a thinning liquidity environment, as market makers are increasingly reluctant to hold risks [4][5] Future Outlook - Despite the current sell-off, analysts do not believe the overall upward trend has been fundamentally damaged, with expectations that the correction will attract buying interest [5] - The macroeconomic factors supporting gold and silver prices, such as rising G7 debt and geopolitical uncertainties, remain intact, suggesting continued bullish sentiment [6][7] - Analysts predict that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year, with potential support levels around $4,600 per ounce [5][6] Economic Influences - The market's reaction to U.S. economic and interest rate policy changes has amplified the recent price declines, particularly following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve chair [7] - Warsh's potential influence on U.S. monetary policy is viewed as a critical turning point, with expectations that he may not deviate from Trump's preference for lower interest rates [7][8] - Current inflation data complicates the Fed's policy path, with producer prices rising significantly, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [8]

美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒（Christopher Waller）周五表示，他之所以对美联储本周维持利率不变的 决策持反对意见，原因是经济数据释放出需要进一步降息的信号。 特朗普在当日早些时候宣布，计划提名前美联储理事凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh），在鲍威尔5月主席任 期结束后接替其职位。 谈及沃什时，博斯蒂克表示："实际上我与他的交集并不多，只听说他是一位思维缜密的人，也是一个 能与之深入交流的对象。" 沃勒还解释称，剔除美国总统特朗普加征关税的影响后，美国当前的通胀水平已接近美联储2%的政策 目标，这也是他支持降息的关键依据。 与之相反，亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔・博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）则表示，当前高企的通胀水平意味 着，美联储应暂缓再次降息。 博斯蒂克周五在接受CNBC采访时称："我们应当选择等待，保持更多耐心。目前美国的通胀水平仍处 于过高状态，因此货币政策仍需保持一定的限制性。" 美联储主席鲍威尔本周在利率决议后的新闻发布会上表示，近期经济数据显示，此前持续走高的失业率 已出现企稳迹象，因此1月维持利率的决策获得了政策制定者的广泛支持。 博斯蒂克周五呼应了这一观点："我确实认为， ...

Market Overview - The US dollar weakened overall during the week, hitting a near four-year low due to Trump's comments and intervention expectations, followed by a brief recovery after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates [1] - Precious metals experienced significant volatility, with gold reaching historical highs before a sharp correction, dropping below $5000 per ounce, influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair [1] - Oil prices fluctuated, initially dropping due to improved supply outlook from OPEC+, then rising sharply due to a winter storm in the US and escalating Middle East tensions [2] Investment Bank Insights - Deutsche Bank is bullish on gold, projecting prices could reach $6000, with potential to challenge $6900, while other banks like RBC and Societe Generale also raised their gold price forecasts [5] - Citigroup increased its three-month silver price forecast to $150 per ounce, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in precious metals [5] - Morgan Stanley anticipates copper prices could rise to $13,000 in Q2, reflecting optimism in the commodities market [5] Major Events - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for the next Fed Chair, a move that has mixed market reactions due to his hawkish stance and potential implications for monetary policy [6] - The Fed voted 10-2 to maintain interest rates, with a focus on balancing inflation and employment risks, signaling a cautious approach to future rate adjustments [7] - The US Senate faced a funding impasse, risking a government shutdown, with significant implications for various departments and upcoming economic reports [10][11] Trade Relations - Trump announced increased tariffs on South Korean imports due to delays in trade agreement ratification, which has raised concerns in the South Korean government [12][13] - The US entered a national emergency regarding Cuba, allowing for potential tariffs on countries supplying oil to Cuba, indicating a shift in trade policy [13] Global Trade Developments - India and the EU reached a free trade agreement, expected to double EU exports to India and significantly reduce tariffs on various goods [20][21] - The EU is also set to deepen trade relations with Vietnam, focusing on critical minerals and infrastructure investments [21] Earnings Season Highlights - Major tech companies reported earnings, with Meta and Microsoft exceeding expectations, but raising concerns about capital efficiency in AI investments [22][23] - Alibaba launched a new AI model, Qwen3-Max-Thinking, showcasing advancements in reasoning capabilities, which could impact the competitive landscape in AI technology [24]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve official, to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, aligning with Trump's critical stance on the Fed's current policies [1][2]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Warsh served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011 and played a key role during the financial crisis [1]. - Trump's decision marks the conclusion of months of internal discussions regarding the Fed chair nomination, which is considered one of the most significant personnel decisions of his presidency [1]. - Warsh's nomination requires Senate approval, and he is expected to face scrutiny due to an ongoing investigation by the Department of Justice regarding the Fed [2]. Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve is currently divided on whether to lower interest rates further, with some officials arguing that inflation remains above the 2% target [1][2]. - Warsh has previously been labeled as "hawkish" due to his warnings about loose monetary policy leading to higher prices [1]. - Trump has expressed a desire for the Fed to lower interest rates, having previously criticized current Chairman Powell for not meeting his expectations [2][3]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Warsh will face unprecedented challenges, including managing inflation that has exceeded targets for several years, addressing tariff-related price increases, and evaluating the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity and the labor market [2]. - The potential rise of digital currencies poses additional challenges for the Fed, which is responsible for regulating the U.S. banking system [2]. Group 4: Historical Context - This leadership change at the Fed could be one of the most significant since Paul Volcker's appointment in 1979, which transformed the Fed's anti-inflation strategy [4]. - Warsh has committed to a complete break from previous policies, indicating a potential overhaul of the Fed's asset holdings, policy framework, and its role in the economy [4][5]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Warsh's nomination came after he outperformed other candidates, including Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder, all of whom were considered strong contenders for the position [5][6]. - Trump confirmed that Hassett will remain as the Director of the National Economic Council, emphasizing his value to the administration [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate is facing new obstacles in negotiations over a government funding bill, significantly increasing the risk of a partial government shutdown on Saturday [1] - The agreement reached between Senate Democrats and President Trump aimed to ensure operational funding for various government agencies, including defense and healthcare, while also addressing new immigration policy restrictions [1][2] - Senate legislative action has stalled due to opposition from some members, with the current government funding authorization set to expire at midnight [2] Group 2 - The funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has been separated from the comprehensive funding plan to prevent immigration enforcement controversies from affecting other government agencies [2] - Recent incidents involving immigration enforcement personnel have led to strong dissatisfaction among Senate Democrats, who have threatened to delay the funding plan to compel the Trump administration to impose restrictions on DHS [2][3] - The agreement extends DHS funding for two weeks, allowing time for negotiations on immigration enforcement strategies [3]