欧洲央行维持三大关键利率不变，将12月视为下一次降息的机会 美媒：贝森特计划在美联储主席候选人名单中再增加一到两位人选 美商务部长卢特尼克：若印度停购俄油，美印将达成贸易协议 国务院同意开展10个要素市场化配置综合改革试点 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 美国8月未季调CPI年率、月率录得1月以来新高 美国初请数据激增至近四年高位 | 品科 | 报价 | 甜美唱 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 3633.46美元/盎司 | -0.21% | | 现货自银 | 41.50美元/盎司 | 0.93% | | WTI原油 \\N | 62.23美元/桶 | -2.37% | | 布伦特原油 | 66.32美元/桶 | -1.88% | | 美元指数 | 97.50点 | -0.31% | | 标普500指数 | 6587.48点 | 0.85% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 22043.07点 | 0.72% | | 道琼斯指数 | 46108点 | 1.36% | | 德 ...

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, suggests that gold may serve as a hedge against unhealthy market impacts from excessive debt burdens [2] - Dalio warns that increased U.S. spending to service debt will "squeeze other expenditures," accumulating like plaque in a clogged circulatory system, raising the risk of a "heart attack" [2] - A well-diversified investment portfolio should include 10% to 15% allocation to gold, according to Dalio [2] - Dalio emphasizes that gold is uncorrelated with other assets and tends to rise in value during crises when other assets decline [2] - In a world of "ample debt" and escalating geopolitical tensions, investors should consider whose money they are holding when constructing a neutral investment portfolio [2] Group 2 - Bill Winters, CEO of Standard Chartered, notes that while European market valuations are lower than those in the U.S., the situations are similar, with the UK and France facing stricter market constraints [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have risen over 11% and 13% respectively this year, reaching historical highs, supported by lower-than-expected inflation data that bolsters expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - The pan-European Stoxx index has seen a gain of just over 8% year-to-date [2] Group 3 - Dalio previously indicated that the U.S. is experiencing a form of dictatorship reminiscent of the 1930s, warning that a politically weakened Federal Reserve maintaining low interest rates could undermine confidence in the Fed's ability to uphold currency value [3] - This situation could make dollar-denominated debt assets less attractive, thereby weakening the monetary order [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace has heightened tensions within NATO and the EU, marking a significant test of their collective security response [1][5]. Group 1: Military and Defense Implications - Poland has engaged its own and NATO aircraft to intercept a portion of the 19 Russian drones that entered its airspace, indicating a proactive defense strategy [1]. - The incident has prompted calls for the urgent development of a "drone wall" across the EU's eastern flank to enhance air defense capabilities against potential Russian threats [3]. - Investment in air defense is deemed critical, especially as the U.S. reportedly reduces security funding for European forces near the Russian border [4]. Group 2: Economic and Sanction Responses - The EU is reportedly finalizing its 19th sanctions package against Russia, with discussions on new economic measures to compel President Putin to negotiate [1]. - The potential for a dual strategic response is emphasized, advocating for both enhanced deterrence and stronger support for Ukraine to counter Russian aggression [5]. Group 3: Political Reactions and Statements - Polish Prime Minister Tusk has characterized the situation as the closest the country has been to open conflict since World War II, framing it as a declaration of war by Russia against the free world [5]. - NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg has expressed confidence in the alliance's ability to defend its territory, highlighting the importance of being proactive in security measures [4].

Group 1 - Switzerland is proposing to establish a gold refining facility in the U.S. or increase its processing capacity as part of a plan to reduce trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. [1] - The U.S. imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss goods due to trade deficits, particularly in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and gold exports [1][2] - The Swiss government and private sector are collaborating to mitigate the impact of these tariffs, with discussions ongoing at various levels [1][2] Group 2 - The Swiss gold industry is exploring ways to prevent trade deficits by potentially meeting U.S. demand domestically [1] - Switzerland aims to reduce the trade deficit caused by the pharmaceutical sector by increasing local production to satisfy U.S. needs [2] - The Swiss pharmaceutical industry association argues that eliminating the trade deficit at the expense of the pharmaceutical sector could harm the Swiss economy [2] Group 3 - Switzerland plans to increase procurement of military supplies from the U.S. and facilitate more liquefied natural gas sales [3] - The initiative includes encouraging Swiss companies to register more energy transactions through Switzerland rather than London [3]

01) 美国8月未季调CPI年率 公布值 ■符合预期 2.9% 美国8月CPJ年率为2.9% 最大;月率为0.4%,创 期的0.3%。特朗普全面 进的,未来几个月价格i 美国企业已耗尽关税前[ 2025 09-11 美国8月CP 看CPI,到 全十数据 | 2025-09-11制图 | 02 核心CPI年率 | 03 核心C | | --- | --- | | 公布值 | 公布值 | | 3.1% 符合预期 | 符合预期 | | 核心 CPI年 率 为 3.1%,符合预 | 核心CPI月率为 | | 期,其中,居住类指数过去一年一 | 上涨项目包括机 | | 上涨3.6%。 | 服装及新车。 | | 11/ L 1 - 1 / - - | 指数是少数在8 | 交易员完全定价 数据公布后,交易员加 押注,交易员完全定价 美联储今年底前 将降息三次。8月通胀 段新高，但预计不会 将降息三次 息，因就业市场疲弱。 @ JIN10.COM 看CPI，到金十，立即下载金十数据APP>> ...

美国8月整体CPI涨幅高于预期，同时核心CPI保持稳定，但由于就业市场疲弱，预计这些数据不会阻止美联储下周降息。 美国8月季调后CPI月率录得0.4%，为1月以来新高，高于市场预期和前值的0.3%；年率录得2.9%，为1月以来新高，符合市场预期，较前值2.7%有所上升。 季调后核心CPI月率录得0.3%，与市场预期和前值一致；年率录得3.1%，同样符合预期，并与前值持平。 持续更新中...... 与此同时，美国至9月6日当周初请失业金人数录得26.3万人，为2021年10月23日当周以来新高，市场预期为23.5万人，前值从23.7万人下修为23.6万人。 在近期就业市场出现悲观消息后，CPI报告可能引发对滞胀的担忧。美国总统特朗普全面征收关税的影响是渐进的，但未来几个月价格可能会加速上涨，因 为企业现在已经耗尽了关税前的库存。一段时间以来，商业调查一直在暗示价格即将上涨。 桑坦德银行美国资本市场首席经济学家Stephen Stanley表示："大量证据表明，更多与关税相关的通胀即将到来，尽管这可能还需要几个月的时间才能完全传 导。" 分析师EndaCurran则指出，除了通胀数据外，我们还看到了一些令人震惊的 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.4% in August, following a 0.2% rise in July, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9% [1] - The core index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% in August, consistent with July, with a 12-month increase of 3.1% [1][6] Food Sector - The food index rose by 0.5% in August, with the household food index increasing by 0.6% [2] - Major grocery food groups saw increases, with fruits and vegetables up by 1.6%, and meat, poultry, fish, and eggs up by 1.0% [2][3] - The dining out index increased by 0.3% in August, with a year-over-year rise of 3.9% [3][4] Energy Sector - The energy index increased by 0.7% in August, following a 1.1% decline in July, with gasoline prices rising by 1.9% [5] - Over the past 12 months, the energy index has risen by 0.2%, with gasoline prices down by 6.6% [5] Core Index Excluding Food and Energy - The core index, excluding food and energy, saw a 0.3% increase in August, with significant contributions from housing and transportation [6] - The rent index rose by 0.3%, while the airline fare index surged by 5.9% [6] Unadjusted CPI Metrics - The unadjusted CPI-U rose by 2.9% over the past 12 months, reaching 323.976 [7] - The CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers (CPI-W) increased by 2.8% over the same period [7]

北京时间周四20:15，欧洲央行将存款机制利率维持在2%不变，符合市场预期，主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率维持在2.15%和2.40%不变。 欧洲央行并未对特定的利率路径做出预先承诺，并称将采取数据依赖和逐次会议的方式，来决定适当的货币政策立场。 欧洲央行利率决议公布后，欧元兑美元短线下挫，最低至1.1661，创近一周低点。 最新的季度预测显示，欧洲央行预计2025年通胀率为2.1%，2026年为1.7%，2027年为1.9%（6月预期分别为2.0%、1.6%、2.0%）；预计2025年核心通胀率为 2.4%，2026年为1.9%，2027年为1.8%（6月预期分别为2.4%、1.9%、1.9%）。 经济增长前景方面，欧洲央行预计2025年GDP增长率为1.2%，2026年为1.0%，2027年为1.3%（6月预期分别为0.9%、1.1%、1.3%）。 机构分析师表示，最有趣的变化是对2027年通胀预期的调整：整体通胀率降至1.9%，核心通胀率降至1.8%。较低的2027年通胀预期可能会增加欧元的压 力，并让降息的猜测继续存在。 欧洲央行认为通胀压力得到控制，尽管美国提高了关税，但经济依然稳固。 该央行在一份声 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August is expected to show persistent inflation, with a projected month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, marking the highest level since January [1][2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is anticipated to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining unchanged from previous values [1][2] - Tariff costs are expected to continue impacting overall inflation, with economists noting that the gradual implementation of tariffs helps avoid sharp price spikes in any given month [1][2] Economic Predictions - Goldman Sachs forecasts a month-over-month increase in core CPI of 0.36%, slightly above market expectations, pushing the year-over-year core CPI to 3.13% [2] - Ameriprise anticipates a month-over-month CPI increase of 0.4%, driven by rising tariff costs and food prices, with overall inflation expected to peak between 3.2% and 3.4% in November to December [3] - The impact of tariffs is seen as temporary, with expectations that inflation will peak and then begin to decline [3] Consumer Sentiment and Market Reactions - Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year have risen to 4.8%, significantly higher than market predictions of 2.6% [3] - The ongoing inflationary pressures are primarily driven by the service sector rather than goods prices, which are more directly affected by tariffs [5] - If CPI data exceeds expectations, it may indicate a loss of momentum in the inflation decline trend, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [5][6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 72% chance of another cut in October [5] - The Federal Reserve's focus on employment data may be challenged by rising inflation, making future rate decisions more complex [5][6] - Ameriprise predicts a rate cut in September but does not foresee another cut in October due to accelerating inflation [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reports that U.S. investor interest in the Chinese market has reached its highest level since 2021, with over 90% of investors expressing willingness to increase exposure to China [1] - BlackRock indicates that AI-driven U.S. tech stocks will remain a global investment focus, while Chinese tech stocks are attracting more overseas investor attention due to significant valuation gaps and favorable industry conditions [2] - Citigroup's CEO expresses optimism about the Middle East's growth over the next decade, driven by investment inflows and emerging industries, while noting that the U.S. is unlikely to enter a recession [4] Group 2 - Fitch raises global GDP growth expectations but notes a slowdown in the U.S. economy and labor market, projecting global growth to decline from 2.9% last year to 2.4% this year [5] - Wells Fargo anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates five times before mid-2026, reflecting a soft labor market and stable inflation expectations [6] - CITIC Securities highlights a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical sector in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a sustained upward trend in the medium to long term [8] - CITIC Securities expects the "pig cycle" effect to weaken by September, aiding improvements in CPI readings [9] - Huatai Securities predicts an improvement in profitability for bulk chemical products, with downstream products likely to recover first [10] - Guosheng Securities emphasizes the shift towards genetically modified crops and high-yield varieties in China's seed industry, driven by national food security policies [11] - Guolian Minsheng Securities notes improving industry conditions in the cement sector, suggesting a focus on leading companies with advantageous valuations [12]