Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly diversifying into China to balance risks associated with the U.S. market, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the dominance of major tech companies in the stock market [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has risen by 15% over the past year, while the Chinese stock market, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index, has surged by 33.4% in the same period [5][6]. - U.S. companies are projected to achieve significantly higher returns on AI capital expenditures, with U.S. cloud platform revenues expected to reach nearly $400 billion in 2024 compared to $60 billion in China [6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to create global portfolios and reduce domestic asset holdings to achieve diversification, especially in light of the dominance of the "Tech Seven" companies [3][4]. - There is a growing trend of funds flowing from Europe to China, driven by interest in AI trends and supply-side reforms aimed at addressing overcapacity and profitability issues [4][5]. Group 3: Sector Insights - Within the AI ecosystem, infrastructure stocks have outperformed "enablers" and "adopters" since July, with returns of 22.2% compared to 11.3% and 13.5% respectively [5]. - Investors can find Chinese stocks comparable to U.S. stocks at a discount of 30% to 40%, particularly in sectors related to AI infrastructure, energy, and automation [5].

联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特于当地时间周四晚间表示，他已向司法部提交了针对美联储理事库克 的第二份刑事移交材料，目前美国总统特朗普正试图解雇库克。 普尔特在X平台的一篇帖子中表示，新的移交材料与她位于马萨诸塞州剑桥市的一套公寓的抵押贷款有 关，并指控她在担任美联储理事期间，在政府道德申报文件中对该公寓及其拥有的另外两处房产存在虚 假陈述。 普尔特谈到他向司法部的移交时写道，"三振出局。" 他的帖子包含了致司法部长帕姆·邦迪（Pam Bondi）和司法部高级官员埃德·马丁（Ed Martin）的信函 图片，其中陈述了对库克的指控。 注：棒球规则中，一名打击者可以错过两次打击机会，但每次都会被判一个 " 好球 " ，在出现第三个好 球时，便会被判三振出局（ strikeouts ），一般比喻某人被取消参与事务的权利。 普尔特表示，2021年4月，"库克为（剑桥市的）一套公寓申请了一份15年期抵押贷款，并将其表述为她 的'第二居所'，仅仅八个月后，即2021年12月1日，库克在美国政府的一份道德申报表上签署文件，称 该房产为'投资/出租房产'。" 他还写道，"但在2022年至2025年的后续申报中，库克一直将此房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Chairman Powell, is managing U.S. interest rates effectively despite political pressures, but there is room for improvement in its broader monetary policy framework [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve will consider a 25 basis point cut in short-term interest rates at the September policy meeting, with a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut, contingent on upcoming employment data [1]. - The Fed's current monetary policy is in a "restrictive range," and risks of a weakening labor market may emerge quickly, while inflation expectations remain stable [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The Fed has reverted to a "symmetric average inflation targeting" approach, treating inflation above and below the target equally, aiming for maximum employment consistent with price stability [2]. - The adjustments restore the Fed's proactive ability to address inflation risks exceeding the 2% target and balance employment and price stability goals more equitably [2]. Group 3: Communication and Policy Implementation - The Fed needs to improve its communication regarding economic outlooks and potential responses, moving beyond marginal adjustments to include detailed staff forecasts with alternative scenarios [3]. - A cost-benefit framework is necessary for guiding the use of quantitative tightening tools, as the costs of the previous quantitative easing program exceeded $500 billion [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in spot gold prices, reaching $3408 per ounce, is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar, with projections suggesting gold could reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1][6]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Spot gold prices have recently hit a one-month high, supported by declining interest rate expectations and a weaker dollar [1]. - Multiple Wall Street institutions, including Fidelity International and Bank of America, maintain a bullish outlook on gold, citing a favorable environment for sustained price increases [1][6]. Group 2: Fidelity International Insights - Ian Samson from Fidelity International emphasizes the likelihood of stagflation in the U.S., suggesting investors should maintain their gold positions [4]. - Gold has performed well in Fidelity's portfolio, with a 27% increase last year and nearly 30% this year [4]. - The combination of declining interest rates, persistent inflation, and low growth is expected to support gold prices [4][5]. Group 3: Bank of America Insights - Bank of America forecasts that declining interest rates and a weaker dollar will bolster gold prices, particularly in an inflationary environment [6]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates as early as September, with a 25 basis point cut expected [6]. - Political pressures and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve may further weaken the dollar, impacting gold positively [6][7].

今年3月，米兰曾以53票对46票的投票结果通过参议院确认，成为经济顾问委员会主席，当时没有共和 党人反对他的提名。 尽管民主党缺乏阻止提名的票数，但米兰预计将面临严厉质询，内容涉及特朗普罢免美联储理事莉萨· 库克（Lisa Cook）的行动、胁迫美联储降息的企图以及政府的其他经济政策。他还可能面临来自共和 党参议员的提问，例如路易斯安那州参议员约翰·肯尼迪（John Kennedy）。后者在美联储主席鲍威尔遭 受大量批评时曾为其辩护。 参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩（John Thune）通常会遵循白宫的优先事项推进提名投票，包括财政部长斯 科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）在内的政府官员已表示希望米兰在9月FOMC会议前获得确认。特朗普在参 议院最多可失去3张共和党选票，即使是其最具争议的提名人选也大多能通过参议院。 由共和党主导的美国参议院很可能实现特朗普政府设定的激进目标——在美联储9月16日至17日利率决 议会议前快速通过斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）的美联储理事提名确认，除非出现程序故障或意外反 对。 米兰作为特朗普的核心经济顾问，长期主张激进降息并推动改革以扩大总统对美联储的影响力 ...

Group 1 - German Chancellor Merz expressed skepticism about the potential meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and Russian President Putin, stating it is unlikely to happen, contrasting with previous optimistic views from President Trump [2][3] - Merz's comments represent the strongest public doubt from European leaders regarding the peace efforts, highlighting a lack of clarity on what commitments were made during closed-door discussions between Trump and Putin [3][4] - The ongoing conflict continues to escalate, with new Russian drone and missile attacks on Kyiv resulting in significant casualties, including the destruction of an apartment building and the death of 21 people [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. government is increasingly frustrated with Putin's actions, as indicated by statements from White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg, who condemned the recent attacks as detrimental to peace efforts [5] - Trump remains focused on achieving a peace agreement as a key aspect of his political legacy, despite recognizing the entrenched territorial claims of Putin that complicate negotiations [5] - Ukrainian officials, including Andriy Yermak, are expected to visit the U.S. to discuss post-war security issues with members of Trump's administration [6]

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation driven by tariffs is gradually permeating the U.S. economy, while economic growth momentum is weakening [1] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month in July, leading to a year-on-year increase from 2.8% to 2.9%, the highest level since February [1] - Some economists predict that the year-on-year growth rate may jump to 3%, the highest since March 2024 [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Economic Indicators - The upcoming PCE report is expected to show a 0.5% month-on-month increase in consumer spending for July, up from 0.3% in the previous month [3] - Analysts believe that the growth in consumer spending is driven by a surge in new car sales, but future growth rates are expected to slow down [3] - The second quarter saw a 1.6% increase in personal consumption expenditures, but forecasts suggest a slowdown to 1.3% in the third quarter and further to 1.1% in the fourth quarter due to rising prices and a slowing job market [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated a significant reduction in concerns about inflation, focusing more on the job market, which suggests a potential for rate cuts in September [1] - High inflation reports may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates further later this year [2] - The upcoming August CPI inflation data will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding rate cuts in mid-September [2]

Group 1 - Germany's GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q2, worse than the previously estimated decline of 0.1% [3] - The automotive industry, a key sector in Germany, has seen a significant drop in employment, with nearly 7% of jobs lost due to weak exports to the US [3][8] - The new US tariffs are expected to reduce Germany's exports to the US by 20% to 25% over the next two years [4] Group 2 - EU exports to the US have sharply declined since April, following a peak of nearly 72 billion euros in March due to pre-tariff stockpiling [6] - The introduction of a 15% tariff on many EU goods has diminished the price competitiveness of German products in the US market, leading to an 8.6% drop in automotive exports and a 7.9% decline in machinery exports in the first half of the year [6][7] - The automotive sector has lost approximately 51,500 jobs in the past year, representing 6.7% of total employment in the industry [8] Group 3 - France's GDP grew by 0.3% in Q2, but the economic structure remains fragile with weak domestic demand and low new manufacturing orders [9] - The French government plans to cut public spending by 43.8 billion euros to reduce the budget deficit, which is projected to be 5.8% of GDP in 2024 [9][12] - A nationwide strike is planned in France starting September 10, opposing the government's budget cuts, which may distract from addressing tariff-related issues [12]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's efforts to influence U.S. interest rates may ultimately depend on global bond market dynamics, as long-term borrowing costs are primarily driven by market forces rather than the Federal Reserve's short-term rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Global Bond Market Dynamics - Major economies, including the U.S., are experiencing rising long-term borrowing costs, leading to some of the highest yields in decades for investors [1]. - The G7 countries are facing similar fiscal challenges, with varying degrees of severity, as noted by Apollo Global Management's chief economist [1]. - Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have lowered short-term rates from pandemic peaks, but global benchmark 10-year bond yields remain stubbornly high [1][3]. Group 2: Long-term Interest Rate Trends - Global central banks are seeking to normalize interest rates, contributing to rising long-term bond yields [3]. - Increased government spending and commitments to defense spending in Europe may lead to larger deficits and higher government bond issuance, pushing up the term premium [3]. - Japan's long-term bond yields are under upward pressure due to inflation concerns, with its 30-year bond yield reaching 3.21%, close to a 30-year high [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Despite Trump's attempt to dismiss a Federal Reserve board member, the bond market showed little immediate reaction, indicating investor confidence in the Fed's independence [4]. - The U.S. 10-year bond yield is stable around 4.21%, higher than France's 3.48%, reflecting differing fiscal concerns [4]. - The U.K. is experiencing a typical case of rising yields due to budget deficits, with its 10-year bond yield nearing 4.70% [4][5]. Group 4: Implications for Fixed Income Investors - Investors are concerned about the potential loss of Federal Reserve independence, which could lead to a steeper yield curve and a weaker dollar [6]. - The yield curve has steepened as the market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Fed, with the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields widening to about 60 basis points [6]. - High bond yields present significant implications for fixed income investors, especially if economic turmoil prompts aggressive Fed actions [6].

通常情况下，民主党和共和党都会在四年一度的总统提名大会上正式推举各自的总统候选人。国会选举 前不会有类似的活动，因为候选人是通过初选确定的。但这些活动通常会引起媒体的广泛关注，大会可 以为共和党提供一个机会，在选民开始权衡选择时宣传他们的主张。 特朗普的政治团队正在寻求办法，激励那些以往只在选票上有他名字时才会出来投票的选民。明年选举 将决定他第二个任期下半程国会参众两院的控制权。 预计在2026年中期选举中，众议院的控制权争夺战将会非常激烈。美国权威的独立选举分析机构库克政 治报告（Cook Political Report）预测，民主党有202个席位被归类为倾向于、可能或稳固获胜，共和党 则有215个席位在这些类别中。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国总统特朗普周四提出，共和党应在2026年中期选举前举行一次不同寻常的全国大会。 他在自己的社交媒体平台Truth Social上写道："我正在考虑建议共和党在中期选举前举行一次全国大 会。这从未有过。敬请关注！" 现任总统所在的政党往往在中期选举中表现不佳。特朗普正试图避免这一命运，同时推动对联邦政府进 行大规模重组。本周发布的 ...