伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦铝库存呈区间波动格局，整体有所增加，最新库存水 平为484,675吨，增至逾五个月新高。 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所铝库存对比 以下为2025年8月以来LME和上期所铝库存数据：（单位：吨） | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/9/5 | 484, 675 | 124, 078 | | 2025/9/4 | 479, 600 | | | 2025/9/3 | 479, 600 | | | 2025/9/2 | 479, 600 | | | 2025/9/1 | 481, 050 | | | 2025/8/29 | 481, 050 | 125, 596 | | 2025/8/28 | 481, 150 | | | 2025/8/27 | 481, 250 | | | 2025/8/26 | 478, 075 | | | 2025/8/22 | 478, 725 | 124, 605 | | 2025/8/21 | 479, 52 ...

》查看更多金属库存信息 | 金屋 | 阵 | 增减 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 155825 | T -2,125 J -1.35% | | 品 | 485275 | 1 +600 ↑ +0.12% | | 锌 | 53075 | -975 J -1.80% - | | 寝 | 217614 | 1 +2.196 +1.02% | | 铝 | 243125 | T -5,075 J -2.04% | | 锡 | 2280 | 1 +50 ↑ +2.24% | | 铝合金 | 1500 | 0 - 0.00% | | LME库存 | | --- | | 我屋 | 库存 | 注册仓单 | | 变动 | 注销仓单 | 变动 | | 注销占比 上日占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 155825 | 133625 | | -5.98% | 22200 | +40.28% | 14.25% | 10.02% | | 铝 | 485275 | 442425 | | -6.63% | 4285 ...

对于后市，金瑞期货评论表示，云南炼厂季节性检修预期兑现。需求端持续低迷，光伏需求未见改善， 消费电子与家电正逐步从传统淡季转向旺季，但从当前市场表现来看，但仅华东少数焊料厂反馈有零星 回暖，整体未见好转。宏观积极边际有所降温，观察到有色回落、贵金属上行。基本面上国内基准情形 小幅去库，海外延续低库存，对价格仍有支撑。因此锡价预计保持震荡。 （文华综合） 沪锡震荡回落，主力合约收跌0.57%，报270700元/吨。锡矿供应恢复缓慢，锡锭头部冶炼企业检修落 地，供应维持偏紧格局。下游需求疲软，国内社会库存维持高位，下游拿货谨慎。锡基本面供需双弱， 关注后续旺季需求成色。 锡矿供应紧张格局未有明显好转，缅甸佤邦地区的锡矿供应虽已部分恢复，但其稳定性和运输效率仍存 较大变数，当前当地雨季刚刚过去，后续运输速率恢复或将在三季度末四季度初。国内锡矿也面临品位 下降，环保趋严等问题，原料供应紧张制约了冶炼厂开工率水平。据SMM调研，上周云南与江西两省 精炼锡冶炼企业合计开工率降至49.11%。云南地区原料短缺问题依旧严峻，冶炼厂锡矿库存普遍低于 30天安全线，低品位矿石占比上升导致加工成本高企，叠加部分冶炼企业检修，导致开 ...

对于铜价走势，光大期货表示，9月初，铜市场进行了一次向上突破的尝试，这里面有黄金高企的带 动，也有国内金九银十下的消费支撑，但市场同样担心宏观风险降临（避险情绪增加），铜价向上存一 定阻力。笔者认为，本周关注美衰退风险是否持续发酵，否则市场可能重新回到旺季预期下的去库预 期，铜价或维系震荡偏强走势，但需要注意的是，9月旺季弱于上半年，价格潜在上行空间恐有限。 （文华综合） 截至上周五国内铜精矿加工费小幅回升，但仍然处于较低位置，市场分歧仍在，成交较为清淡，短期矿 紧格局难以改善。9月8日国内市场电解铜现货库存15.04万吨，较4日增0.23万吨。近期市场进口铜仍有 所到货流入，加之铜价高位运行，下游采购需求难有明显提升，仓库出库量仍较为一般，库存因此延续 累库。 沪铜早间低开，日内持续偏弱震荡，波动较为有限，收盘下跌0.36%。美联储降息预期抬升，不过经济 前景担忧也有增加，国内精铜社会库存小幅累积，沪铜飘绿。 美国8月非农新增就业人口大幅低于预期，失业率也仍在攀升，美国劳动力市场进一步走软的势头使得 市场对于美联储9月降息预期较为确定，且大幅降息预期也略有抬升，不过市场也在担忧美国经济前 景，有色反应平淡。 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices remained stable, supported by a significant drop in the US dollar, following a key employment report suggesting a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month [1][4] - The three-month LME copper price closed at $9,897.50 per ton, down $0.50 or 0.01% [2] - The US employment report indicated a slowdown in job growth for August, with only 22,000 non-farm jobs added and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [4] Group 2 - The decline in interest rates has improved the outlook for metals reliant on economic growth, with the US dollar index dropping by 0.6%, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to holders of other currencies [4] - The copper premium in China’s Yangshan remained stable at a three-month high of $57 per ton, while JX Advanced Metals indicated potential cuts in copper production due to tight supply, providing additional support for copper prices [7] - LME three-month aluminum and zinc prices increased by $9.00 (0.35%) to $2,600.50 and $17.50 (0.62%) to $2,861.00, respectively [8][9]

Core Insights - Global aluminum producers have quoted the aluminum premium for Japanese buyers at $98-$103 per ton for the October-December shipping period, reflecting a decrease of 5%-9% compared to the current quarter [1] - Japan, a significant aluminum importing country in Asia, has seen a substantial drop in aluminum premiums, with the premium for the July-September quarter set at $108 per ton, marking a 41% decline from the previous quarter, indicating weak demand [1] Industry Summary - The aluminum premium for Japanese buyers is based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) spot price, and the recent quotes suggest a downward trend in pricing [1] - The significant reduction in premiums highlights a potential oversupply or reduced demand in the market, particularly in Japan, which is a key player in aluminum imports [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices fell due to a strong dollar and profit-taking after reaching a five-month high, with market attention on key U.S. employment data and tariff uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: LME Copper Market - On September 4, LME three-month copper dropped by $77.5, or 0.78%, closing at $9,898.0 per ton [1][2]. - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 13% [4]. - The $10,000 level is currently seen as a strong resistance for copper prices, with insufficient fundamentals to break through [4]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy meetings [4]. - In August, U.S. private sector jobs increased by 54,000, below the expected 65,000, indicating a loosening labor market [4]. - The anticipated non-farm payroll report may show an increase of 75,000 jobs in August, compared to 73,000 in July [4]. Group 3: Other Base Metals - LME three-month aluminum fell by $27.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,591.5 per ton [2][7]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $17.5, or 0.61%, closing at $2,843.5 per ton [2][8]. - LME three-month lead dropped by $10, or 0.5%, closing at $1,985.5 per ton [2][9]. - LME three-month nickel declined by $68, or 0.44%, closing at $15,236.0 per ton [2][10]. - LME three-month tin fell by $106, or 0.31%, closing at $34,556.0 per ton [2][11]. Group 4: Dollar Impact on Commodities - A stable dollar index makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies [5].

Group 1: Copper Inventory Changes - The registered warehouse inventory for copper decreased to 158,375 tons, a reduction of 1.91% from the previous day, with a cancellation of 16,100 tons, representing an increase of 19.04% in cancellations [1][3] - The cancellation ratio for copper is now at 10.17%, up from 8.53% the previous day [1] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory Changes - The aluminum inventory remains unchanged at 479,600 tons, with a cancellation of 10,850 tons, maintaining a cancellation ratio of 2.26% [1][5] - Specific locations such as Rotterdam and Singapore show significant cancellation ratios of 31.47% and 79.25% respectively [5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory Changes - Zinc inventory decreased to 54,750 tons, a drop of 9.42%, with a notable increase in cancellations to 16,300 tons, reflecting a 2759% increase in cancellations [1][9] - The cancellation ratio for zinc is now at 29.77%, up from 23.13% [1] Group 4: Tin Inventory Changes - Tin inventory increased slightly to 2,225 tons, with a cancellation of 190 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 8.54% [1][11] - The inventory at specific locations like Singapore and Rotterdam shows stable levels with minimal changes [11] Group 5: Nickel Inventory Changes - Nickel inventory rose to 215,310 tons, with a cancellation of 8,352 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 3.88% [1][13] - The inventory levels in various locations such as Singapore and Kaohsiung indicate stable trends with minor fluctuations [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai copper market showed stability around the 80,000 yuan mark but experienced a decline of 0.51% at the close, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and rising precious metals [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Shanghai copper prices initially rose above 80,000 yuan due to strong macroeconomic sentiment and the performance of precious metals, but later retreated as domestic inventories increased and futures market sentiment weakened [1] - The market's focus is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which is expected to influence macroeconomic sentiment and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - LME copper inventory has remained relatively stable without significant accumulation, while SMM data indicated a 0.85 million ton increase in national copper inventory as of September 4 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures suggests that the macroeconomic factors driving metal prices remain positive, and under the current conditions, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels, with potential for further strength [1] - A potential downside risk is the return of logistics, although the CL price spread remains positive, indicating a slower realization of returns [1]

Group 1 - Citi has a bullish outlook for copper, predicting prices will exceed $11,000 per ton by the end of 2026 [1] - The bank has raised its long-term aluminum price forecast from $3,000 per ton to $3,500 per ton by 2027 [1] - Silver prices are expected to rise to $43 per ounce in the coming months [1] Group 2 - Citi maintains its Henry Hub natural gas price target at $3.8 per million British thermal units for the next 0-3 months [1] - The average price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2026 has been slightly lowered from $65 per barrel to $62 per barrel [1] Group 3 - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [1] - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is collaborating with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain for 2026 [1]