Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices stabilized after reaching a five-month high, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut in the U.S. later this month and a weakening dollar [1][4]. Price Summary - LME three-month copper closed at $9,975.50, down $5 or 0.05% [2]. - LME three-month aluminum remained unchanged at $2,619.00 [5]. - LME three-month zinc decreased by $4, or 0.14%, to $2,861.00 [6]. - LME three-month lead increased by $1.50, or 0.08%, to $1,995.50 [7]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $72, or 0.47%, to $15,304.00 [8]. - LME three-month tin fell by $71, or 0.20%, to $34,662.00 [9]. Market Analysis - The copper market experienced a technical glitch that delayed electronic trading by 90 minutes, with prices initially touching $10,038, the highest since March 26 [4]. - ING's commodity strategist Ewa Manthey anticipates that upcoming U.S. employment data will indicate a weakening labor market, reinforcing the case for a rate cut [4]. - Despite the potential for lower interest rates improving the outlook for metals, concerns about economic growth due to broad import tariffs in the U.S. continue to pressure industrial metal market sentiment [4]. - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.3%, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to buyers holding other currencies, with surveys indicating a weaker dollar in the coming months [4].

Core Insights - LME tin inventory has decreased to a two-year low of 1,630 tons on August 19, 2025, but has since increased to 2,175 tons, marking a two-month high [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 1% weekly increase in tin inventory to 7,566 tons for the week ending August 29, 2025 [2] Inventory Trends - LME tin inventory data from August 2025 shows a fluctuation with a notable increase from 1,630 tons on August 19 to 2,175 tons by September 2 [4] - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has shown a consistent upward trend, with a recorded increase to 7,566 tons on August 29, 2025 [4] Market Implications - The decline in inventories at both LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange typically supports tin prices, while an increase in inventory may exert downward pressure on prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices reached a two-month high due to a decline in the dollar, positive economic data, and optimistic expectations for a rate cut in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Copper Market Performance - On September 2, LME three-month copper rose by $96.5, or 0.98%, closing at $9,980.5 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,009, the highest since July 3 [1][2] - The premium for copper imports in China, measured by the Yangshan copper premium, increased to $55 per ton, up from $29 on July 8, but still below the $100 level seen in May [4] - LME copper inventories are high, indicating weak demand outside of China, with spot copper trading at a discount of approximately $85 per ton compared to three-month copper [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, with the ISM manufacturing PMI slightly rising to 48.7 from 48.0 in July, remaining below the neutral level of 50 [6] - The new orders index in the ISM survey rose to 51.4, indicating potential recovery after six months of contraction [7] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17, with expectations of a rate cut that could weaken the dollar and boost metal prices [7] Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $8, or 0.31%, closing at $2,619.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month zinc rose by $32.5, or 1.15%, closing at $2,865.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month lead decreased by $9.5, or 0.47%, closing at $1,994.0 per ton [2][9] - LME three-month nickel fell by $207, or 1.34%, closing at $15,232.0 per ton [2][10] - LME three-month tin dropped by $219, or 0.63%, closing at $34,733.0 per ton [2][8]

注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 2023年以来LME和上期所锌库存对比 伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锌库存继续下降，最新库存水平为55,875吨，再刷逾两 年新低。 上期所公布的数据显示，8月29日当周，沪锌库存继续累积，目前已连增十周，周度库存增加10.46%至 85,980吨，增至九个月新高。 以下为2025年8月以来LME和上期所锌库存数据：（单位：吨） ...

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing limited movement with the main contract rising by 0.08% to 273,980 yuan/ton, influenced by a combination of declining domestic production and weak consumer demand [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major smelting enterprises have initiated routine maintenance, leading to a noticeable decline in domestic production, while consumer demand remains weak [1] - Domestic tin inventory is high, while overseas inventory is at historical lows, creating a mixed market sentiment with limited driving forces [1] - The supply of tin ore remains tight, with delays in actual output from Myanmar expected until the fourth quarter due to seasonal and equipment supply issues [1] Group 2: Production and Supply - Domestic smelting plants are operating at low capacity, particularly in Yunnan, where raw material shortages persist [1] - Some previously shut-down enterprises are preparing to resume production, but another leading company is undergoing maintenance, suggesting an overall decline in production [1] Group 3: Pricing and Demand - Recent fluctuations in tin prices have seen a slight decline, with smelting plants showing a willingness to sell, but actual transactions remain limited [1] - Traders are actively quoting prices, noting that while tin prices have slightly decreased, they remain high, and downstream purchasing interest is weak [1] - Downstream orders continue to decline, with current consumption levels in the off-season, particularly in home appliances and photovoltaic sectors [1][2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a one-month high, driven by positive manufacturing data from major metal-consuming countries and a weaker dollar [1][4] - As of September 1, LME three-month copper closed at $9,884.00 per ton, down $18.00 or 0.18% [2][4] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 12%, rebounding from $8,105 in early April [4] Group 2 - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August was reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for August was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, remaining above the critical point and indicating continued expansion [4] Group 3 - Other base metals showed mixed performance: LME three-month aluminum fell by $4.50 (0.17%) to $2,611.00, while zinc rose by $13.50 (0.48%) to $2,832.50, lead increased by $12.50 (0.63%) to $2,003.50, and nickel rose by $18.00 (0.12%) to $15,439.00 [2][7][8][9][10] - LME three-month tin decreased by $66.00 (0.19%) to $34,952.00 [11] Group 4 - Investors are focusing on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with additional attention on job vacancy and private sector employment data [5] - The U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday due to a holiday, resulting in light trading activity [6]

Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased to 158,875 tons, with a change of -0.10% from the previous day, and registered warrants at 13,175 tons, accounting for 8.29% of total inventory [1][3] - Aluminum inventory remained stable at 481,050 tons, with registered warrants at 12300 tons, representing 2.56% of total inventory [1][5] - Zinc inventory decreased to 55,875 tons, with a change of -1.49%, and registered warrants at 13,025 tons, making up 23.31% of total inventory [1][9] - Tin inventory increased to 2,155 tons, with a change of +8.71%, and registered warrants at 220 tons, accounting for 10.21% of total inventory [1][11] - Nickel inventory rose to 209,844 tons, with a change of +0.14%, and registered warrants at 7,998 tons, representing 3.81% of total inventory [1][13] Warehouse Specific Changes - In Kaohsiung, copper inventory decreased by 150 tons to 54,000 tons, with registered warrants at 2,325 tons, accounting for 4.31% [3] - Rotterdam showed a stable aluminum inventory of 3,575 tons, with registered warrants at 2,450 tons, representing 31.47% [5] - Singapore's zinc inventory decreased to 55,775 tons, with registered warrants at 13,000 tons, making up 23.31% [9] - Tin inventory in Singapore increased to 500 tons, with registered warrants at 40 tons, accounting for 8.00% [11] - Nickel inventory in Kaohsiung increased by 300 tons to 45,030 tons, with registered warrants at 4,896 tons, representing 10.87% [13]

| 2012 | 月 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 星期 | 星期 | 星期章 | 雪期四 | 星期間 | 黑斯 | 星期日 | | 1 | 2 | 3 | ব | 5 | 6 | 7 | | ○LME持仓 | | | | ○CFTC持仓 | | | | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | | □书照/□#踪画中。 。智利铜出口收入 | ○LME持仓 | ○LME月度库存 | | ○CFTC持仓 | | | | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | | 。中国十种金属和原铝 | ○LME持仓 | 。WBMS金属供需 | | ○CFTC持仓 | | | | 产量 | | | | | | | | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | | ○IAI全球原铝产量 | 。LME持仓 | 。ILZSG月报 | ●香港流入内地黄金。CFTC持仓 | | | | | 29 | 30 | | | | | | | ·智利月度铜产量 | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown a slight increase, supported by the U.S. PCE price index aligning with market expectations, which continues to bolster the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut prospects in September [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Friday night, copper futures opened high and fluctuated, ultimately closing with a gain of 0.71% [1] - The weakening U.S. dollar and significant gains in precious metals have positively influenced copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees have begun to recover from low levels, indicating a potential tightening in the copper market [1] - There is a notable divergence in views on processing fees between holders and smelters, which may impact the smelting sector moving forward [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Jinrui Futures, if economic data does not disrupt interest rate cut expectations, copper prices are likely to continue fluctuating at high levels, with a potential for further strength [1] - A potential downside risk is the return of logistics, although the CL price spread remains positive, suggesting a slow realization of this risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices reached a five-week high on August 29, driven by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and increased demand in September [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 29, LME three-month copper rose by $84, or 0.86%, closing at $9,902.00 per ton, with an intraday high of $9,918, the highest since July 25 [1] - Other base metals also saw gains, with three-month aluminum up by $10.50 (0.40%), zinc up by $38.00 (1.37%), lead up by $7.50 (0.38%), tin up by $216.00 (0.62%), and nickel up by $158.00 (1.04%) [2] Group 2: Economic Factors - A slight weakening of the U.S. dollar contributed to the rise in metal prices, making them more attractive to buyers using other currencies [4] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward, indicating stronger economic performance [4] - The dollar is expected to decline by 2% in August, enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated metals [4] Group 3: Chinese Market Insights - In China, the renminbi experienced its largest monthly gain against the U.S. dollar since May [5] - Copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 2.4%, while the Yangshan copper premium, reflecting import demand, stabilized at $55 per ton, the highest since June 5 [5] - Tin prices were supported by low inventories in both LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, alongside speculative buying despite weak physical demand [5] Group 4: Company-Specific News - Tin Industry Co., Ltd. announced a planned maintenance shutdown for its tin smelting equipment starting August 30, 2025, for up to 45 days, which has been accounted for in the annual production plan [5]