Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global refined nickel surplus of 49,900 tons in August 2025, with production at 323,300 tons and consumption at 273,400 tons [1] - For the period from January to August 2025, global refined nickel production reached 2,549,400 tons, while consumption was 2,244,300 tons, resulting in a surplus of 305,100 tons [1] - In August 2025, global nickel ore production was 338,600 tons, and for the first eight months of 2025, it totaled 2,615,200 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices rose due to a weaker dollar and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 15, LME three-month copper increased by $63, or 0.6%, closing at $10,641 per ton [1] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $8.50 (0.31%), zinc up by $6.50 (0.22%), lead up by $0.50 (0.03%), tin up by $204 (0.58%), and nickel up by $59 (0.39%) [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns over reduced copper supply from Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Chile have contributed to a recent price surge, with copper reaching a 16-month high of $11,000 on October 9 [4] - Morgan Stanley's commodity strategist indicated that further changes in the market could lead to tighter conditions by the end of the year [4] - Fitch Solutions raised its 2025 average copper price forecast to $9,650 per ton, up from a previous estimate of $9,500, citing ongoing supply disruptions and strong industrial demand [4] Group 3: Market Premiums and Inventory - The premium of LME spot copper contracts over three-month contracts has been declining, with a recent peak of $227, the highest since June [4] - The premium for LME spot zinc contracts decreased from $202 to $150 per ton, indicating tight inventory levels, which are at their lowest since the beginning of 2023 [4]

Group 1 - Freeport-McMoRan plans to exit the benchmark pricing system for copper concentrate to protect smelter profitability [2] - The TC/RC fees, crucial for smelter operations, typically account for nearly one-third of smelter revenue [2] - Historical low TC/RC fees are expected to continue into 2026, with predictions of a potential negative pricing scenario [2][3] Group 2 - Javier Targhetta, responsible for large supply agreements for over 30 years, expresses concern over the sharp decline in processing fees [3] - China, as the largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: rising dependence on foreign resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3]

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a continued decline in tin inventory, with the latest level at 2,385 tons, marking a new low in over a month [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange indicated that during the week of October 10, tin inventory decreased by 8.55% to 5,879 tons, reaching a near two-year low [2] - Generally, a continuous decline in inventories on domestic and international exchanges tends to support price levels, while an increase may exert downward pressure on prices [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a decline in prices due to weak demand and macroeconomic uncertainties, despite tight supply conditions [1][2] - The main contract for tin closed at 281,710 yuan/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.15% [1] - The Federal Reserve's indication of a potential easing in monetary policy has heightened risk aversion in the market, contributing to a decline in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - China's refined tin production saw a significant decline in September due to maintenance by leading enterprises, impacting overall supply [2] - Current tin prices remain relatively high, but downstream and end-user acceptance of these prices is low, leading to limited spot transactions [2] - The market is characterized by weak overall demand, particularly in the consumer electronics and home appliance sectors, with a noticeable reduction in orders [2] Group 3 - There is an expectation of supply recovery as major enterprises complete maintenance and resume operations, which could lead to a substantial increase in domestic refined tin production [2] - Despite tight supply conditions at the mining level, the release of production from Myanmar remains limited [2] - The short-term market dynamics are influenced by mixed fundamental factors, with a lack of strong drivers and significant reliance on macroeconomic sentiment [2]

Core Insights - Fitch Solutions' BMI has raised its 2025 copper price forecast to $9,650 per ton from a previous estimate of $9,500, driven by ongoing supply disruptions and strong industrial demand [2] - Current average copper prices are at $9,609 per ton, with trading prices exceeding $10,000 due to macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. interest rate cuts, which are expected to stimulate manufacturing and investment activities until 2026 [3] Demand Drivers - China remains the dominant force in global copper consumption, with significant increases in demand driven by the expansion of green energy [4] - Solar power installations surged by 212 gigawatts in the first half of 2025, nearly doubling year-on-year, alongside a substantial rise in electric vehicle sales [4] - The dual surge in renewable energy and electric vehicles has pushed Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories to multi-year lows, while global inventories at the London Metal Exchange are expected to halve to nearly 140,000 tons by 2025 [4] Supply Constraints - BMI indicates that copper prices will continue to be supported by supply disruptions from major producers [5] - The Grasberg copper mine, the second-largest globally, experienced a landslide in September, invoking force majeure and reducing 2026 production forecasts by 35% [6] - Chile's production has also seen significant declines, with Codelco's El Teniente mine experiencing a 25% year-on-year drop in August, reaching a 20-year low of 93,400 tons [7] - The Collahuasi mine, a joint venture between Anglo American and Glencore, reported a 27% production decline, prompting both companies to lower their 2025-2026 production targets [7] Long-term Outlook - BMI anticipates a 2.4% growth in global refined copper production by 2025, but expects this year's global copper surplus to be smaller than in 2024 [8] - Over the next decade, BMI believes that a significant number of new projects will inject additional copper supply into the market, although supply growth will lag behind demand growth [9] - The International Energy Agency notes that each electric vehicle contains over 50 kilograms of copper, more than double that of traditional vehicles, and offshore wind energy facilities require up to 8 tons of copper per megawatt of installed capacity [9] - Consequently, BMI forecasts that accelerating electrification and clean energy infrastructure development will lead to a long-term supply gap, pushing copper prices to $17,000 per ton by 2034 [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights the changes in inventory levels for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and tin, indicating fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics in the market [1][3][5][7][9][11][13]. Inventory Changes - **Copper**: The total inventory decreased from 138,800 to 138,350 tons, a reduction of 450 tons, with a registered warehouse inventory of 129,800 tons and a cancellation ratio of 6.18% [1][3]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory remained stable at 498,975 tons, with a slight decrease of 4,975 tons from the previous day. The registered warehouse inventory is 405,700 tons, and the cancellation ratio is 18.69% [1][5]. - **Zinc**: The inventory decreased from 38,600 to 38,350 tons, a drop of 250 tons, with a registered warehouse inventory of 24,400 tons and a cancellation ratio of 36.38% [1][9]. - **Nickel**: The inventory increased from 243,258 to 246,756 tons, an increase of 3,498 tons, with a registered warehouse inventory of 240,486 tons and a cancellation ratio of 2.54% [1][13]. - **Tin**: The inventory rose from 2,385 to 2,575 tons, an increase of 190 tons, with a registered warehouse inventory of 2,340 tons and a cancellation ratio of 9.13% [1][11]. Regional Inventory Insights - **Copper**: Significant changes were noted in various locations, with the highest cancellation ratio observed in the location "हा" at 14.39% [3]. - **Aluminum**: The highest cancellation ratio was recorded in Rotterdam at 31.47%, indicating potential supply constraints in that region [5]. - **Zinc**: The inventory in Singapore showed a decrease, reflecting a tightening supply in that market [9]. - **Nickel**: The inventory in high-demand regions like Singapore and 高雄 showed increases, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [13].

Core Viewpoint - Aurubis is exploring opportunities to establish a new copper smelter in the U.S. following the launch of its recycling plant in Georgia, amid a significant demand for smelting capacity in the country [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Copper Smelting Opportunities - The U.S. has a substantial demand for copper smelting capacity, with only three existing smelters compared to 15 in Europe [2]. - Aurubis is considering three options to capitalize on the U.S. market, with the first option involving the expansion of its existing recycling operations to include anode furnaces and electrolytic cells [2]. - The second option involves building a new recycling plant on the U.S. West Coast, leveraging increased local scrap copper supply due to tariff decisions [2]. Group 2: Market Demand and Production Capacity - U.S. refined copper production currently meets only half of the domestic demand of 1.7 million tons, with a projected increase in demand to 2.3 million tons by 2035 [1]. - The U.S. recycling market is expected to grow by 26% over the next decade, reaching an annual capacity of 555,000 tons [3]. Group 3: Aurubis' Expansion Plans - Aurubis plans to invest approximately €500 million (about $577.7 million) in a new precious metals refining and recycling facility in Hamburg to increase platinum and antimony production [4]. - The company has raised its premium for European customers to a historical high of $315 per ton, a 38% increase from the previous year, driven by strong demand and supply concerns [4]. - Recent supply disruptions in Indonesia, Chile, and the Congo have contributed to rising copper prices, which peaked at $11,000 per ton before retreating to $10,525 per ton [4].

印尼镍锍出口量为22,722吨，当月对中国出口11,809吨，占比51.97%。 10月15日（周三），印尼统计局公布的数据显示，2025年8月，印尼硫酸镍出口量为17,710吨，当月对 中国出口17,620吨，占比99.49%。 印尼镍铁出口量为877,181吨，当月对中国出口833,931吨，占比95.07%。 印尼镍湿法冶炼中间产品出口量为188,562吨，当月对中国出口188,526吨，占比99.98%。 印尼未锻轧的非合金镍出口量为10,121吨，当月对中国出口4,520吨，占比44.66%。 ...

Core Insights - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices declined due to concerns over demand outlook, with three-month copper dropping by $242, or 2.24%, to $10,578 per ton on October 14 [1][2]. Price Movements - Three-month copper: $10,578.00, down $242.00, or -2.24% [2] - Three-month aluminum: $2,737.50, down $25.50, or -0.92% [2] - Three-month zinc: $2,941.50, down $79.50, or -2.63% [2] - Three-month lead: $1,982.00, down $7.00, or -0.35% [2] - Three-month nickel: $15,135.00, down $71.00, or -0.47% [2] - Three-month tin: $35,189.00, down $537.00, or -1.50% [2] Market Analysis - Copper prices have fallen nearly 4% since October 9, when they reached a 16-month high of $11,000 due to supply concerns from Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Chile [4]. - Dan Smith, Managing Director of Commodity Market Analytics, noted that despite supply challenges, copper demand remains weak [4]. - The recent support level for copper is at the 21-day moving average, currently at $10,378 per ton [4]. Spot and Futures Contracts - The spot copper contract is currently at a premium of $39 per ton over the three-month contract, having peaked at $227 per ton, the highest since June [5]. - Zinc's premium decreased from $202 per ton to $115 per ton, with LME zinc inventories at their lowest since the beginning of 2023, raising supply concerns [5]. Additional Price Trends - LME three-month zinc reached its lowest price since September 30 [6][7]. - LME three-month lead and nickel also hit their lowest prices since early September [6][8][9].