Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing upward momentum, driven by renewed interest in precious metals and ongoing concerns about tight supply, despite weak domestic demand and limited inventory accumulation [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai copper opened slightly higher in the morning and expanded its gains throughout the day, closing up 1.73% [1] - The domestic copper concentrate processing fees continue to remain weak, hovering below -40 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Long-term Contracts and Production Pressure - On December 19, Chinese copper smelters agreed with Antofagasta on a 2026 copper concentrate long-term processing fee benchmark of 0 USD/ton and 0 cents/pound, which is lower than the 2025 benchmark of 21.25 USD/ton and 2.125 cents/pound [1] - This agreement reflects increased production pressure on smelters, making future operational conditions a key focus [1] Group 3: Price Trends and Demand Factors - New Lake Futures indicates that while domestic consumption is weak, the ongoing export window alleviates inventory pressure, making copper prices more likely to rise than fall [1] - The market is currently focused on expectations of tight copper supply in non-US markets due to the siphoning effect from the US [1] - The long-term outlook for copper consumption remains resilient, supported by growth in the renewable energy sector, global AI data center construction, and the global grid renovation cycle [1]

Group 1: Inventory Changes - Copper inventory decreased by 2,650 tons, representing a decline of 1.65%, bringing the total to 157,750 tons [1] - Aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 519,600 tons, with no recorded inflow or outflow [1] - Zinc inventory decreased by 650 tons, a drop of 0.65%, resulting in a total of 99,250 tons [1] - Nickel inventory decreased by 162 tons, down 0.06%, now totaling 254,388 tons [1] - Lead inventory decreased by 2,675 tons, a reduction of 1.03%, bringing the total to 255,950 tons [1] - Tin inventory decreased by 20 tons, a decline of 0.43%, resulting in a total of 4,625 tons [1] Group 2: Warehouse Specific Changes - In the copper warehouse, the total inventory is now 157,750 tons after a decrease of 2,650 tons, with registered warrants at 106,000 tons and canceled warrants at 51,750 tons, representing a cancellation ratio of 32.81% [4] - The aluminum warehouse maintained a total of 519,600 tons, with registered warrants at 445,200 tons and canceled warrants at 74,400 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 14.32% [5] - Zinc inventory in the warehouse decreased to 99,250 tons, with registered warrants at 91,250 tons and canceled warrants at 8,000 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 8.06% [9] - Tin inventory in the warehouse is now 4,625 tons, with registered warrants at 4,510 tons and canceled warrants at 115 tons, leading to a cancellation ratio of 2.49% [10] - Nickel inventory decreased to 254,388 tons, with registered warrants at 242,616 tons and canceled warrants at 11,772 tons, resulting in a cancellation ratio of 4.63% [12]

Group 1 - The global refined copper market is projected to have a surplus of 122,000 tons from January to October 2025, a decrease from a surplus of 261,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper production for January to October 2025 is estimated at 23,734,000 tons, compared to 22,766,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper consumption for January to October 2025 is expected to reach 23,612,000 tons, up from 22,505,000 tons year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Global copper mine production for January to October 2025 is projected at 19,137,000 tons, an increase from 18,910,000 tons in the same period last year [3] - The global copper smelting capacity is expected to be 29,309,000 tons in 2025, compared to 27,029,000 tons in 2024 [3] - The utilization rate of global smelting capacity is forecasted to be 81% in 2025, down from 84% in 2024 [3]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose, with three-month copper increasing by $103.50, or 0.88%, closing at $11,881.50 per ton, nearing the record high of $11,952 set last week [1][2] - Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish long-term outlook for copper, predicting prices could reach $15,000 per ton by 2035 due to unique supply constraints and strong structural demand growth [4] - The global refined copper market showed a surplus of 122,000 tons from January to October 2025, down from a surplus of 261,000 tons in the same period last year [4] Group 2: Other Base Metals Performance - Other base metals on the LME also saw increases, with three-month aluminum rising by $29, or 0.99%, to $2,945 per ton, reaching its highest level since May 2022 [5] - Three-month nickel prices increased by $162, or 1.11%, closing at $14,803 per ton, following Indonesia's proposal to reduce nickel ore production by about one-third next year [4][6] - Three-month tin prices rose by $300, or 0.7%, closing at $43,227 per ton, also reaching its highest level since April 2022 [6]

Group 1: Copper Inventory - LME copper inventory decreased to 160,400 tons, a change of -1.19% from the previous day [1] - Registered warehouse receipts for copper are at 103,950 tons, with a decrease of -8.29% [1] - The cancellation ratio of copper warehouse receipts is 35.19% [1] Group 2: Aluminum Inventory - LME aluminum inventory remains unchanged at 519,600 tons [5] - Registered warehouse receipts for aluminum are at 445,800 tons, with no change [5] - The cancellation ratio of aluminum warehouse receipts is 14.20% [5] Group 3: Zinc Inventory - LME zinc inventory increased to 99,900 tons, a change of +0.50% [9] - Registered warehouse receipts for zinc are at 92,600 tons, with a change of +35.19% [9] - The cancellation ratio of zinc warehouse receipts is 7.31% [9] Group 4: Lead Inventory - LME lead inventory decreased to 258,625 tons, a change of -4.78% [7] - Registered warehouse receipts for lead are at 154,725 tons, with a change of +4.29% [7] - The cancellation ratio of lead warehouse receipts is 40.17% [7] Group 5: Tin Inventory - LME tin inventory increased to 4,645 tons, a change of +5.13% [11] - Registered warehouse receipts for tin are at 4,510 tons, with a change of +2.91% [11] - The cancellation ratio of tin warehouse receipts is 2.91% [11] Group 6: Nickel Inventory - LME nickel inventory increased to 254,550 tons, a change of +0.24% [13] - Registered warehouse receipts for nickel are at 241,986 tons, with a change of +4.94% [13] - The cancellation ratio of nickel warehouse receipts is 4.94% [13]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices showed a slight increase of 0.46% at closing, supported by a tight copper supply despite subdued downstream demand and limited accumulation of social inventory [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The US dollar index is operating at a low level, contributing to a favorable environment for copper prices [1] - Recent US inflation data for November came in below expectations, indicating signs of cooling inflation [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US were slightly lower than expected, which, along with dovish comments from some Federal Reserve officials, has bolstered expectations for a rate cut in January [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper exports have increased, while social inventory accumulation has been limited, particularly due to reduced inflows in Jiangsu and Guangdong [1] - The rise in domestic refined copper social inventory has slowed down as of Thursday, indicating a tightening supply situation [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Jin Yuan Futures suggests that weaker US inflation data strengthens expectations for a rate cut next year, which may favor a dovish narrative [1] - The European Central Bank has paused rate cuts while raising economic growth forecasts, indicating a potential for stable rates over a longer period [1] - The global resumption of mining operations is slow, with low LME registered warehouse stocks, and domestic social inventory remains at a low level [1] - Attention is drawn to the upcoming long-term contract TC negotiations, with expectations that copper prices will maintain high volatility in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lundin Mining plans to sell its Eagle nickel-copper mine and Humboldt Mill to Talon Metals in exchange for shares, creating a pure-play U.S. nickel-copper company [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - Lundin will transfer its U.S. subsidiary owning the Eagle mine in Michigan to Talon for approximately 275 million shares of Talon stock, valued at about $83.7 million based on recent prices [1] - This transaction will allow Lundin to hold approximately 20% of Talon on a non-diluted basis [1] - The Eagle mine is currently the only operating primary nickel mine in the U.S., having produced over 194,000 tons of nickel and over 185,000 tons of copper since production began, with revenues exceeding $3.2 billion expected by Q3 2025 [1] Group 2: Future Operations - Post-transaction, Talon will process critical minerals at multiple facilities in the U.S., operate the Humboldt Mill in Michigan, and plans to establish a processing facility in Beulah, North Dakota [1] - The transaction is expected to be completed by early January 2026, pending regulatory approval, after which Eagle's production will no longer be included in Lundin's production guidance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global supply tightness has driven up tin prices, increasing market interest in this critical material, which is essential for various applications including electric vehicle batteries and electronics [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The three-month tin futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by $652, or 1.54%, closing at $42,927 per ton, with an intraday peak of $43,345, the highest level since April 2022 [1]. - LME spot tin prices have remained above $40,000 per ton for most of December, marking the first occurrence since early 2022 [2]. - The New York A-grade tin spot price reached a three-year high of $19.21 per pound on December 15, up 44.1% since the beginning of the year [2]. Group 2: Supply Challenges - The tin market is facing supply challenges due to mining disruptions and increased awareness of tin's value, with Indonesia's tin production accounting for 16.7% of global output in 2024 [4]. - The Indonesian government has halted 1,000 illegal tin mines to combat illegal mining activities, resulting in an 80% loss of tin production [5]. - Malaysia Smelting Corp's subsidiary faced a three-week suspension of tin mining activities due to pollution allegations, although production resumed on December 4 [5]. - Supply from Myanmar remains tight due to delays in restarting shipments from the Man Maw mine, which was previously suspended to protect mineral resources [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - High tin prices have led to positive sentiment among investors, with LME fund net positions at record long levels due to a "supply risk premium" [6]. - Companies like Cornish Metals Inc. are benefiting from high tin prices, aiming to restart the South Crofty tin mine in the UK and become a major tin supplier in Europe by mid-2028 [7]. - Experts anticipate that supply constraints will persist in the short term, sustaining bullish sentiment for tin prices [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government has proposed a significant reduction in nickel production for the next year, which could impact the global nickel market and prices [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Nickel prices surged over 2% in early trading, indicating a positive market reaction to the news of production cuts [1] Group 2: Production Plans - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) announced that the government plans to reduce next year's nickel production by 34% compared to this year's total, bringing the output down to 250 million tons [1] - APNI Secretary General Meidy Katrin Lengkey stated that this target is part of the government's planning, but specific implementation details are still unclear [1]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance is set to issue investment tools for natural resource export revenues to enhance compliance among exporters and retain foreign exchange earnings within the country [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - New regulations will require natural resource exporters to retain all foreign exchange earnings in state-owned banks for at least one year starting January 1, 2026, and limit the use of these funds [1] - The new rules aim to increase onshore dollar liquidity and stabilize the rupiah exchange rate [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of palm oil, coal, nickel, and tin, and a major exporter of rubber, coffee, and other commodities [1] - The planned regulations have faced complaints from the palm oil and mining associations, as the new rules will restrict the maximum proportion of foreign exchange earnings that can be converted to Indonesian rupiah to 50% [1] Group 3: Industry Reactions - The Secretary-General of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) expressed concerns about operational funding needs, emphasizing the necessity of Indonesian rupiah [1] - The Executive Director of the Indonesian Mining Association indicated that miners also hope the government will maintain the current regulations unchanged [1]