Group 1 - During the National Day holiday, overseas liquidity easing expectations boosted risk assets, with copper prices reaching around $108,000, the highest since May 2022 [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a decline in ADP employment data, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, raising expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Chile's copper production fell by 9.9% year-on-year in August, marking the largest decline in over two years, primarily due to an accident at Codelco's El Teniente mine [1] Group 2 - Global copper mine vulnerabilities have been increasingly exposed this year, complicating negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners, leading to concerns about supply tightness [2] - Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia faced force majeure, further escalating supply concerns and contributing to rising copper prices [2] - LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, while COMEX copper inventory has accumulated to over 330,000 tons, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2]

Market Overview - During the National Day holiday, global financial markets faced multiple risk events, including the U.S. government shutdown entering its eighth day and political changes in Japan and France impacting the markets [1] - U.S. stock markets continued to rise, with major indices reaching record highs, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The dollar index reached a two-month high, while the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level since mid-February [1][2] Commodity Market - LME copper prices hit a 16-month high due to supply concerns, reaching $10,815 per ton, influenced by operational disruptions in major mines [3] - COMEX gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [6] - Oil prices fell to a four-month low, with concerns over oversupply and OPEC's decision to maintain a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day [7][17] Agricultural Commodities - CBOT soybean futures rebounded after hitting a seven-week low, supported by lower yield forecasts and expectations of improved demand [9][10] Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve noted increased risks in the employment market while remaining vigilant about inflation, with discussions on potential interest rate adjustments ongoing [11][12] - The New Zealand central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, indicating concerns over economic weakness [13]

10月8日（周三），伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价回落，受累于美元走强，稍早因交易商担心矿山生产 持续中断可能造成短缺而触及16个月最高。 铝价亦触及16个月最高水平，因可用库存下滑。 伦敦时间10月8日17:00(北京时间10月9日00:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌92美元，或0.85%，收报每吨 10,669.0美元。盘中一度触及每吨10,815美元的去年5月22日以来最高。 国际铜业研究组织(ICSG)周三预计，2025年全球精炼铜市场将供应过剩约17.8万吨，2026年将短缺15万 吨。今年4月，该组织预测今年将过剩28.9万吨，2026年将过剩20.9万吨。 "所有的供应干扰都使得市场吃紧，"WisdomTree大宗商品策略师Nitesh Shah称。"矿商在新勘探方面几 乎没有什么动作，甚至开采新矿也变得更加困难，因此这种供应紧张的状况将会持续。" | | 10月8日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10.669.00 + | -92.00 ↓ -0.85% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto emphasizes the need for continued efforts by various departments to combat illegal tin mining and smuggling activities [1] Group 1 - The President witnessed the asset handover ceremony related to a corruption case in tin mining, highlighting the government's serious commitment to eradicating illegal mining [1] - The call to action includes collaboration among the Attorney General's Office, military, customs, and coast guard to address these issues [1]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - LME copper prices rose by 1% to $10,761.00 per ton, approaching a 16-month high due to concerns over mining production disruptions outweighing the impact of a stronger dollar [1][2] - Year-to-date, LME copper has increased by 22%, driven by production interruptions in major copper mines in Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia [2][3] - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, one of the largest globally, has been suspended for nearly a month following a landslide that resulted in seven fatalities [2][3] Group 2: Price Forecasts and Market Sentiment - Citigroup raised its target price for LME three-month copper from $10,500 to $11,000 per ton, anticipating that economic growth recovery in 2026 could push prices to $12,000 per ton [3] - Dan Smith from Commodity Market Analytics noted that LME copper is nearing a critical resistance zone between $10,750 and just below $11,000, which has previously been a barrier in May 2021, March 2022, and May 2024 [3] Group 3: Chilean Copper Exports and Global Nickel Market - Chile's copper exports in September amounted to $4.39 billion, a decrease of 2.03% compared to the same month last year [4] - Sumitomo Metal Mining forecasts a continued surplus in the global nickel market for the third consecutive year, with a projected surplus of 256,000 tons in 2026, slightly down from 263,000 tons in 2025 [5] - The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) expects global nickel demand to rise to 3.82 million tons in 2026, up from 3.6 million tons in 2025, while production is anticipated to increase to 4.09 million tons [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices experienced a decline after reaching a 16-month high, primarily due to profit-taking triggered by a stronger US dollar, overshadowing supply concerns from Chile and Indonesia [1][4]. Price Movements - LME three-month copper fell by $61, or 0.57%, closing at $10,654.50 per ton after hitting a peak of $10,800, marking a nearly 25% increase since early April [1][2]. - Other base metals showed mixed results: - Three-month aluminum rose by $15.50, or 0.57%, to $2,725.00 [2][6]. - Three-month zinc decreased by $27.50, or 0.91%, to $3,007.00 [2][7]. - Three-month lead dropped by $15.50, or 0.77%, to $2,004.50 [2][8]. - Three-month nickel increased by $49, or 0.32%, to $15,482.00 [2][9]. - Three-month tin fell by $657, or 1.75%, to $36,798.00 [2][10]. Market Influences - The recent rise in copper prices was partly attributed to the absence of the Chinese market during the Golden Week holiday, leading to increased selling by Chinese investors [4]. - A stronger US dollar, which rose by 0.4% to 98.11, made dollar-denominated metals more expensive for buyers using other currencies, prompting traders to close long positions [4]. - The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the September employment report, which may impact market sentiment [5]. Supply Concerns - Supply disruptions are expected to persist due to operational halts at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia following a landslide, along with other interruptions at mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile [5].

Core Insights - LME copper prices reached a 16-month high on October 3, driven by supply tightness and a weakening dollar [1][4] - The three-month copper price increased by $225, or 2.14%, closing at $10,715.5 per ton, marking a weekly gain of 5.2%, the strongest since September 2024 [1][5] Price Movements - Three-month copper: $10,715.50, up $225.00 (+2.14%) [2] - Three-month aluminum: $2,709.50, up $17.00 (+0.63%) [2] - Three-month zinc: $3,034.50, up $14.00 (+0.46%) [2] - Three-month lead: $2,020.00, down $4.00 (-0.20%) [2] - Three-month nickel: $15,433.00, up $116.00 (+0.76%) [2] - Three-month tin: $37,455.00, up $567.00 (+1.54%) [2] Supply Dynamics - LME copper inventory dropped to 140,475 tons, the lowest level since early August [5] - Supply risks and potential delays in restoring supply have been highlighted as key market drivers [4]

Core Insights - LME copper prices increased by over 1% due to supply disruptions and a weakening US dollar amid government shutdown concerns [1] - LME three-month copper closed at $10,268.5 per ton, down $145.5 or 1.4% from earlier highs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On October 1, LME three-month copper closed at $10,379.00, up $110.50 or 1.08% [2] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up 0.30%, zinc up 0.93%, and lead up 1.11% [2] - Three-month tin rose by 1.70%, closing at $36,013.00 [2] Group 2: Supply Concerns - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia faced force majeure, contributing to market volatility and upward price pressure [4] - Antofagasta Minerals' Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile may face a strike after union leaders rejected a new contract proposal, raising supply concerns [4] - Chile's copper production in August fell by 9.9% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in over two years [5] Group 3: Inventory and Currency Impact - Copper inventories in LME warehouses dropped to 141,725 tons, the lowest level since early August [6] - A weakening US dollar, influenced by the government shutdown, provided additional support for base metal prices [6]

Core Insights - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached a 16-month high due to supply disruptions causing concerns over shortages [1][4] - The three-month copper contract rose by $111.5, or 1.07%, closing at $10,490.5 per ton, with an intraday peak of $10,531, the highest since May of the previous year [1][2] Price Movements - Three-month copper: $10,490.50, up $111.50 (+1.07%) [2] - Three-month aluminum: $2,692.50, up $4.00 (+0.15%) [2] - Three-month zinc: $3,020.50, up $32.90 (+1.10%) [2] - Three-month lead: $2,024.00, up $13.50 (+0.67%) [2] - Three-month tin: $36,888.00, up $875.00 (+2.43%) [2] Supply Disruptions - Recent supply issues stem from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which halted operations after a deadly landslide on September 8 [4] - Other significant disruptions occurred earlier this year at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the El Teniente mine in Chile [4] Economic Factors - The rise in copper prices is also attributed to pressure on the US dollar due to a government shutdown and economic slowdown concerns [4] - The ongoing partisan divide has led to a lack of funding agreements, resulting in a partial government shutdown [4] Zinc Market Dynamics - LME zinc inventories have decreased by 66% since mid-July, reaching the lowest level since March 2023 at 40,350 tons [4] - Concerns over zinc supply have led to a significant premium for spot zinc over the three-month contract, reaching around $80 per ton, the highest in three years [4]

Group 1 - The Indonesia Tin Exporters Association estimates that the country's refined tin exports will increase from 45,000 tons in 2024 to approximately 53,000 tons this year [2] - Some smelters in Bangka-Belitung are resuming operations after being interrupted due to corruption investigations, which will support export shipments [2] - The government's crackdown on illegal mining activities in Bangka-Belitung is not expected to disrupt transportation [2] Group 2 - LME tin and Shanghai tin prices have surged following President Prabowo Subianto's order to close 1,000 illegal mining sites in Sumatra [2] - Approximately 80% of tin production in Bangka-Belitung was previously smuggled abroad through various channels, which have now been completely blocked [2] - The government’s restructuring actions have not disrupted production activities, with companies holding mining quotas continuing to meet their targets [2][3]