Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices rose on December 18, but market direction remained unclear due to a stronger dollar offsetting the positive impact of lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, leading traders to reduce their positions ahead of the Christmas holiday [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month copper increased by $41, or 0.35%, closing at $11,778 per ton [2]. - Other base metals also saw price increases, with three-month aluminum up by $10.5 (0.36%) to $2,916 per ton, and three-month tin rising by $652 (1.54%) to $42,927 per ton [2][4]. - Trading volume was low, with approximately 14,300 contracts exchanged, below the 30-day average of nearly 22,000 contracts [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the 3% increase in September, which positively influenced market sentiment [3]. - Copper is viewed as a barometer for global economic health, having increased by 34% year-to-date and reaching a record high of $11,952 per ton last week [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from Saxo Bank noted a lack of interest in new positions, with a potential for increased volatility as the year ends [3]. - Goldman Sachs projected that copper prices will outperform aluminum in 2026, with an average price forecast of $11,400 per ton [3].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to outperform aluminum prices by 2026, maintaining a bullish stance on copper and a bearish outlook on aluminum [1] Group 1: Copper Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its long-term copper price forecast of $15,000 per ton by 2035 [1] - The average copper price is projected to stabilize at $11,400 per ton in a baseline scenario for 2026 [1] Group 2: Aluminum Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts that aluminum prices will decline by 19% from current spot prices by the end of 2026, reaching $2,350 per ton [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that China's imports of aluminum ore and its concentrates have significantly increased in November 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 22.9%, totaling 15.11 million tons, and a cumulative increase of 29.4% for the first eleven months of the year, reaching 185.96 million tons [1][2] - In November 2025, China's alumina exports decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, amounting to 170,000 tons, while the cumulative exports for the first eleven months increased by 46.7%, totaling 2.34 million tons [1][2] Group 2 - The detailed statistics show that the import of aluminum ore and its concentrates in November was 1.511 million tons, with a monetary value of 744.67 million yuan, and the cumulative import for the first eleven months was 18.596 million tons, valued at 10.542 billion yuan [2] - The export of alumina in November was 17,000 tons, valued at 54.705 million yuan, while the cumulative export for the first eleven months was 234,000 tons, valued at 866.308 million yuan [2]

Group 1 - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in November reached 1.236 million tons, marking an increase of 11.9% year-on-year [1][2] - Cumulative production from January to November totaled 13.323 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8% [1][2] - Copper product output in November was 2.226 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.8% compared to the same month last year [1][2] Group 2 - The production of aluminum oxide in November was 8.138 million tons, with a monthly growth rate of 7.6% [2] - The output of ten non-ferrous metals in November was 6.992 million tons, with a monthly increase of 4.7% [2] - Zinc production in November reached 654,000 tons, with a significant monthly growth of 13.3% [2] - Aluminum production was recorded at 3.792 million tons, with a monthly increase of 2.5% [2] - Aluminum alloy production in November was 1.739 million tons, showing a robust growth of 17% [2] - The output of aluminum materials in November was 5.931 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.4% [2]

SHMET 网讯：作为全球最大镍生产国，印尼可能在2026年将产量削减三分之一，以防止价格进一步下 跌。 美国地质调查局数据显示，2024年印尼镍产量达220万吨。菲律宾以33万吨位居第二，俄罗斯产量为21 万吨。 加拿大镍业公司首席执行官Mark Selby本月在伦敦《北方矿工》国际金属研讨会上指出，印尼实施产量 管控源于镍矿品位持续下降。 "印尼将对市场施加压力，"他强调。"由于矿石品位和化学成分持续下降，印尼开始从菲律宾进口矿 石。这相当于沙特阿拉伯从伊朗或伊拉克进口石油。这种供应并非无限，印尼将利用这个窗口期推动镍 价回升至每吨18,000至20,000美元区间。" 价格下跌7-8% 自2022年3月俄乌冲突后，镍价暴涨至每吨48,078美元，过去一年间已回落约7%至每吨14,376美元。此 后价格趋稳，直至2024年5月再度飙升至约21,615美元，随后下跌约34%至当前水平。 供应过剩 BMO资本市场分析师Helen Amos称，全球最大镍生产商Nornickel预测，继今年24万吨过剩后，明年镍 市场将面临27.5万吨的更大供应过剩。她强调Nornickel的评估报告早于印尼镍业协会的公告。 印 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the copper market will face structural shortages starting in 2026 due to the growth in electrification demand outpacing new supply [1] - The report highlights that the demand for copper is expected to double by 2045 due to the energy transition, driven by the rapid growth of data centers, grid expansion, and the proliferation of electric vehicles [1] - Supply constraints are already evident, with mining disruptions in Chile, Indonesia, and Peru leading to tighter market conditions [1] Group 2 - The report estimates that without new mining projects or significant increases in copper recycling, the copper deficit could reach 19 million tons by 2050 [1] - In contrast, lithium supply is expected to continue growing, with total capacity projected to increase from 1.5 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2025 to 4.4 million tons by 2035 [1] - Although lithium prices have decreased from a peak of $80,000 per ton in 2022 and have remained low, recent supply disruptions and subsidy cuts have led to a slight price rebound [1]

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reports a global zinc plate production of 1,192.8 thousand tons and a consumption of 1,219.6 thousand tons in October 2025, resulting in a supply shortfall of 26.7 thousand tons [1] - For the period from January to October 2025, global zinc plate production reached 11,562.0 thousand tons, while consumption was 11,969.5 thousand tons, leading to a cumulative supply deficit of 407.6 thousand tons [1] - In October 2025, global zinc mine production was recorded at 1,089.1 thousand tons, with a total production of 11,054.9 thousand tons from January to October 2025 [1]

12月17日（周三），世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年10月，全球精炼镍产量 为32.64万吨，消费量为29.72万吨，供应过剩2.91万吨。 2025年10月，全球镍矿产量为34.26万吨,2025年1-10月，全球镍矿产量为355.74万吨。 2025年1-10月，全球精炼镍产量为320.46万吨，消费量为286.66万吨，供应过剩33.8万吨。 ...

Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported an increase in global refined zinc consumption in October 2025, reaching 1,219.3 thousand tons, up from 1,196.6 thousand tons in September 2025 [1] - The global zinc market experienced a supply shortage of 0.06 thousand tons in October 2025, an improvement from a shortage of 0.10 thousand tons in September 2025 [1] Consumption and Production Data - Global refined zinc consumption for January to October 2025 totaled 1,143.9 thousand tons, compared to 1,118.7 thousand tons during the same period in 2024, indicating a year-on-year increase [1] - Global refined zinc production in October 2025 was 1,218.7 thousand tons, up from 1,195.6 thousand tons in September 2025 [1] - Global zinc mine production in October 2025 reached 1,100.9 thousand tons, an increase from 1,087.7 thousand tons in September 2025 [1] Supply and Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance for refined zinc showed a surplus of 76 thousand tons for January to October 2025, compared to a surplus of 1 thousand tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - The refined zinc supply-demand balance in October 2025 was a deficit of 0.60 thousand tons, an improvement from a deficit of 1.0 thousand tons in September 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported a global refined lead consumption of 1.1157 million tons in October 2025, an increase from 1.0692 million tons in September 2025 [1] - The global refined lead market experienced a supply shortage of 14,400 tons in October 2025, compared to a shortage of 14,100 tons in September 2025 [1] - For the period from January to October 2025, global refined lead consumption reached 10.933 million tons, up from 10.773 million tons in the same period of 2024 [1] Consumption and Production Data - Global refined lead production in October 2025 was 1.1013 million tons, an increase from 1.0551 million tons in September 2025 [1] - The total global refined lead production from January to October 2025 was 10.953 million tons, compared to 10.773 million tons in the same period of 2024 [1] - Global mine production of lead in October 2025 was 403,000 tons, up from 392,300 tons in September 2025 [1] Supply and Demand Balance - The global lead market showed a supply surplus of 20,000 tons from January to October 2025, contrasting with a balanced supply-demand situation in the same period of 2024 [1] - The supply-demand balance for October 2025 indicated a continued tightening in the market, with a notable shift from surplus to shortage [1]