Core Viewpoint - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to a sell-off in risk assets, resulting in a stronger US dollar and a decline in most base metals on the London Metal Exchange (LME) [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 13, LME three-month copper fell by $57 or 0.59%, closing at $9,645 per ton, with an intraday low of $9,532, marking the weakest level since June 3 [1][2]. - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down $14.50 or 0.58% to $2,503.00, three-month zinc down $19.50 or 0.74% to $2,623.00, and three-month lead down $6.00 or 0.30% to $1,990.50 [2][6]. - The COMEX copper premium over LME copper reached $976 per ton [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analysis - The strong US dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies, contributing to the market's risk reduction in copper and aluminum [3]. - Alastair Munro from Marex noted that the current events have diminished the likelihood of prices moving upward, suggesting that price declines may attract bargain hunters [3][5]. - The majority of selling pressure is attributed to commodity trading advisors (CTA) investment funds [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Insights - In contrast to the LME, Shanghai aluminum has seen a third consecutive day of gains, closing at 20,440 yuan per ton, up 0.49%, supported by declining inventories [7]. - As of the week ending June 13, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventories fell to 110,001 tons, the lowest since February 2024, having decreased by 54% since late March [7].

Core Viewpoint - Recent nickel price declines are influenced by various factors, including supply pressures and changes in mining policies in Indonesia and the Philippines [2][3][4]. Supply Factors - Nickel prices are under pressure due to significant oversupply, with Indonesian and Philippine mining policies contributing to this situation. The removal of export bans in the Philippines and high supply growth from Chinese nickel companies have exacerbated the oversupply [3][4]. - Nickel inventory levels have increased significantly, with nickel pig iron inventory rising to 31,500 tons and refined nickel inventory increasing nearly eightfold to 39,000 tons [3]. Demand Factors - Domestic demand for refined nickel is expected to grow faster than supply in the first half of the year, with a 60.82% year-on-year increase in apparent consumption [6]. - However, demand from stainless steel and ternary precursor sectors remains weak, limiting the growth potential for refined nickel consumption [6][7]. Global Inventory Trends - Global refined nickel inventory accumulation is slowing down due to supply-side disruptions and the impact of low nickel prices on high-cost producers, leading to production cuts [5][6]. - The LME inventory has shown a decline since April, particularly in Russian-origin stocks, indicating a potential tightening in supply [5]. Price Outlook - Short-term nickel price declines may be limited due to high nickel ore prices and ongoing inventory depletion [7]. - However, there remains potential for further price declines as raw material prices may still adjust downward, and demand from stainless steel production is not expected to improve significantly [7]. Market Focus - Future market attention should be directed towards changes in Indonesian mining policies, the impact of price declines on high-cost supply, and the ability of pure nickel inventories to deplete effectively [7].

Group 1 - LME three-month copper rose by $54 or 0.56% to $9,702 per ton, supported by a weaker dollar, despite ongoing concerns about demand and unresolved trade tensions [1][3] - Copper prices have increased approximately 20% since hitting a low of $8,105 per ton in April 2023 [1] - The weaker dollar makes metals priced in dollars cheaper for buyers using other currencies, providing some support to prices [3] Group 2 - Recent manufacturing PMI data from Europe and the US remains in contraction territory, indicating a drag from current tariff situations on demand [3] - The US investigation into copper imports has led to a significant premium of COMEX copper prices over LME prices, with a spread of $946 per ton [3] - The production guidance for the Kakula mine has been adjusted to 370,000 to 420,000 tons for 2025, with the 2026 target of approximately 600,000 tons withdrawn [3][4] Group 3 - The downward revision of production estimates, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo, is impacting supply outlook, suggesting a potential supply shortage by year-end [4]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the adjustment phase for tin prices has likely ended, and the long-term upward trend that began in Q4 2022 is expected to continue based on macroeconomic and supply-demand factors [1][19]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Sentiment - Recent signals show a significant easing in the US-China tariff war, with important agreements reached during trade talks in Geneva and London, positively impacting global trade and economic conditions [2]. - China's manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.5, a marginal increase, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activities, with production index rising to 50.7, suggesting acceleration in production [3]. Group 2: Tin Supply and Demand Factors - Tin supply is constrained due to lower-than-expected recovery in Myanmar's Wa State, with imports from Myanmar remaining at historically low levels of 1,000 to 3,000 tons per month since November 2024 [6]. - The Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a significant tin production area, is experiencing slow recovery due to local security issues, with current imports from this region around 3,000 tons [7]. - Domestic tin mining in China faces challenges due to declining ore grades and rising extraction costs, with regulatory actions aimed at curbing illegal mining impacting production [9]. - Processing fees for tin concentrate have hit record lows, which reflects tight supply conditions and has suppressed domestic refined tin output to below 15,000 tons per month [11]. - Both domestic and international tin inventories are in a destocking cycle, with LME tin inventories decreasing by nearly 50% since the end of last year [14]. Group 3: Demand Growth - Traditional applications of tin in electronics, home appliances, and chemicals are being supplemented by increased demand from the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors, with global semiconductor sales projected to reach $627.6 billion in 2024, a 19.1% year-on-year increase [17]. - The semiconductor industry is in a recovery phase, with demand for tin solder materials expected to grow, and the correlation between LME tin prices and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is strong, indicating a close relationship between semiconductor market performance and tin demand [17].

Group 1 - Nickel prices have recently declined due to the Philippines' decision to remove the export ban on raw minerals, which has impacted market sentiment and led to a drop in prices [1] - The Philippines aims to promote domestic mining development by implementing a mineral export ban similar to Indonesia's, but the current weak demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors has dampened investment motivation [1][2] - Indonesia has become the largest producer of nickel globally, and its new nickel mining quota approval policy has slowed down the approval process, affecting market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in nickel prices, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to seasonal weather impacts in both Indonesia and the Philippines, which has kept prices relatively high [3][4] - Domestic nickel iron smelting plants are experiencing losses, leading to reduced production and a decline in procurement demand [4][5] - The production of nickel intermediate products, particularly MHP, is expected to increase, which may lead to a further decline in cost levels in the industry [7][9] Group 3 - The demand for refined nickel has shown positive growth, particularly driven by the emerging need for pre-plated nickel materials in battery production, which is expected to create a significant supply-demand gap [13] - Traditional demand from stainless steel production is weakening, with notable reductions in output and a slower pace of inventory depletion [14][15] - The overall supply tightness in nickel ore and intermediate products is expected to provide cost support for nickel prices, although weak terminal demand may limit price increases [17]

Core Insights - Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, is focusing on public-private partnerships to improve its financial situation and enhance its ability to develop new projects, aiming to increase production amidst rising global demand for copper and lithium during the energy transition [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes that public-private partnerships will be a "pillar of growth" rather than for major repairs or existing operations, adhering to nationalization regulations that prevent private funding in its mines [2] - Codelco's greenfield projects are considered a key part of its growth strategy and an opportunity for collaboration with third parties, which will also help diversify risks [2] Group 2: Partnerships and Collaborations - Codelco has established partnerships with Freeport-McMoRan at the El Abra mine and holds a 20% stake in Anglo American's resources, while also acquiring a 10% stake in Quebrada Blanca resources from Enami [2] - Recent agreements with Rio Tinto and BHP aim to explore new potential copper mines, with promising prospects reported [2] Group 3: Investment in Exploration - The company plans to increase its exploration budget to an average of $83 million per year for 2023 and 2024, and to $150 million per year from 2025 to 2029 [3] - Codelco announced a joint operation with Anglo American to manage nearby copper mines, projecting an annual increase of 120,000 tons over 21 years [3] Group 4: Resource Utilization - Collaborations with third parties are seen as a way to better utilize resources, complementing the company's own projects [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin market is experiencing a tug-of-war between tight supply and loose expectations, leading to a short-term strong fluctuation in tin prices [1] - The main contract for tin closed at 265,530 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.69% [1] - The current trading performance in the spot market is relatively quiet, with only a few participants maintaining essential purchases due to strong observation sentiment from downstream [1] Group 2 - Tin ore supply remains tight, which is constraining production at smelting plants, with the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi reaching 53.86% as of last Friday [1] - The operating rate of smelting enterprises in Yunnan has continued to decline, with the processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate remaining at historical lows, nearing the cost line for smelting plants [1] - Some smelting enterprises have already halted production for maintenance, while others are gradually reducing output to cope with the current tight supply of raw materials [1] Group 3 - Thailand has decided to suspend the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar to Thailand starting June 4, which is expected to impact the monthly import of tin ore into China by 500-1,000 metal tons [2] - The ban on transportation is likely to exacerbate raw material supply concerns, although market sentiment may experience a short-term boost [2] - The demand from the semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors is slowing down, and the high prices are leading to reduced purchasing from downstream, indicating that tin prices may maintain a trend of rebound followed by consolidation [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Copper prices have shown a narrow fluctuation since May, with market sentiment being cautious due to a tight supply from mines and weakening demand [2] - The macroeconomic environment lacks clear drivers, with potential tariff increases on copper following the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, causing temporary price spikes [3] - The U.S. economy shows signs of stability with improved GDP and employment data, but concerns over fiscal deficits and credit risks keep market sentiment cautious [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global copper mine production in March was 1.969 million tons, up 11.4% month-on-month and 3.68% year-on-year, with Chile's production at a four-year high [4] - Supply disruptions are noted, including a temporary halt in operations at the Kakula copper mine due to an earthquake, while other mines remain unaffected [4] - Domestic processing fees for copper remain low, with a recent figure of -$43.29 per ton, indicating ongoing supply tightness [5] Group 3: Production and Demand - Global refined copper production for January to March was 7.058 million tons, a 3.17% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in China, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and India [6] - China's electrolytic copper production in May reached 1.1383 million tons, a 12.86% year-on-year increase, but a decline in production is expected due to tight copper ore supply [6] - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, with reduced operating rates in copper rod, pipe, and plate manufacturers, while cable manufacturers maintain higher rates due to existing orders [8] Group 4: Inventory and Pricing - LME copper inventory has decreased rapidly, with total stocks at 132,400 tons, raising concerns about short-term supply risks [7] - Domestic copper inventory is low, and the spot premium has decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [9] - The market is experiencing a tug-of-war between tight supply and weakening demand, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations in the short term [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the refined nickel market is experiencing a supply surplus, with prices showing volatility due to high production levels and weak demand from the stainless steel and battery sectors [1][2] - Refined nickel production remains at high levels in China, despite losses in raw material procurement and integrated high-nickel production, while the MHP project continues to yield high profits [1] - Domestic refined nickel social inventory has decreased to an eight-month low, while overseas LME inventory remains around 200,000 tons, indicating a trend of stable inventory levels [1] Group 2 - Demand for stainless steel is weak, leading to production cuts in steel mills, while the sales growth of new energy vehicles has slowed down, impacting the demand for nickel in battery production [1][2] - The production of nickel sulfate is expected to decline further in June due to reduced demand from ternary precursor enterprises and poor profit margins [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with fluctuating expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, contributing to overall volatility in the non-ferrous metals market [2]

摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析师表示，美国总统特朗普决定将铝进口关税提高一倍至50%，这可 能会推高铝价格及其用户的成本。 分析师表示，以每磅20美分作为消费者在美国实物市场购买铝的溢价基准水平，将关税上调至50% 将"意味着未来铝价格将进一步上涨，以保持金属流入"美国。 高盛分析师表示，溢价必须上升至每磅0.68美元至0.70美元之间，才能充分反映关税上调的影响。 摩根士丹利在给客户的报告中写道，特朗普加征的关税还可能对美国的现货铝采购产生影响，因为消费 者可能会等待观望，看是否会有所逆转或者该政策是否会有所豁免。美国进口大量的铝。 他们补充称，如果过剩的金属被转移到其他地区，其他地区的溢价也可能受到抑制。美国政府最初对铝 征收25%的关税，导致一些生产商将铝转移到欧洲，引发了欧洲铝溢价自2025年初以来下跌，并支持了 废铝从欧盟流向美国。 策略师们表示，市场似乎也在押注铝关税的上调将增加对铜进口征税的可能性，特朗普政府目前正在根 据1962年《贸易扩张法》第232条对铜进口征税进行调查。这可以作为针对特定行业征收关税的理由， 这些关税旨在促进对国家安全至关重要的商品的国内生产。 不过，摩根 ...