未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 摩托车海外市场近万亿空间，出口大有可为： 销量维度，2024年海外摩托车市场销量4000万辆以上，大排量销量约344万辆，为国内8-9倍空 间；收入维度，2024年海外摩托车市场规模9320亿元，近万亿级别市场。据摩托车商会，2024 年中国品牌摩托车出口1102万辆，海外市占率25.7%，其中大排量出口仅35.9万辆，海外份额 10.4%，中国品牌海外份额提升空间大，出口大有可为。 欧美澳引领玩乐市场，亚非拉主导通路车大市场： 收入维度，海外主要大市场包括：东南亚（2.3千亿元）南亚（2.7千亿元）欧洲（1.6千亿元） 拉美（1.3千亿元）北美（562亿元）。不同市场需求结构及竞争格局迥异，日系品牌统领全 球，欧美系品牌在高端市场领先，同时各地本土品牌百花齐放。 细分来看，北美： 美国占90%，规模约60万辆+大排量渗透率90%以上的高端市场，日系+本土 品牌为主； 拉美： 规模约450万辆且持续扩容+大排量渗透率10%的中端市场，日系+本土品牌 为主，印度系/中国品牌均有一定份额，此外中国品牌为当地本土品牌代工并贴牌出口； 欧洲 核心五国： 规模100万辆以上且持续 ...

Core Viewpoints - The growth of the motorcycle market is driven by two key factors: exports and large-displacement motorcycles, with the latter transitioning from a tool to a consumer product [2][8][11] - The domestic market for large-displacement motorcycles is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2030, reaching 800,000 units by 2030 [3][77][80] - The overseas motorcycle market presents a substantial opportunity for Chinese brands, with an expected market size of 932 billion yuan in 2024, and a significant growth potential for large-displacement exports [4][8][11] Group 1: Market Overview - The annual motorcycle sales in China range from 19 to 20 million units, with small-displacement models dominating the market [2][15] - The motorcycle industry has undergone three phases: popularization, decline, and differentiated growth, with a notable shift towards large-displacement motorcycles since 2020 [2][19][20] - The domestic sales of fuel motorcycles are projected to decline from 7.71 million units in 2019 to 5.44 million units in 2024, while large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to grow from 110,000 to 400,000 units during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 28.8% [3][32] Group 2: Large-Displacement Motorcycle Market - The penetration rate of large-displacement motorcycles in China is expected to increase from 1.5% in 2019 to 7.5% in 2024, indicating a growing consumer interest in this segment [3][41] - The market for large-displacement motorcycles is being driven by rising outdoor sports demand and the development of motorcycle culture, with a significant increase in motorcycle events and clubs [3][48][56] - By 2024, the share of 400-500cc models is expected to rise to 46%, indicating a trend towards higher performance and larger displacement motorcycles [3][63] Group 3: Export Opportunities - The overseas motorcycle market is projected to exceed 40 million units in 2024, with large-displacement motorcycle sales estimated at 3.44 million units, representing a significant growth opportunity for Chinese manufacturers [4][8] - In 2024, Chinese motorcycle exports are expected to reach 11.02 million units, with a 25.7% share of the overseas market, highlighting the potential for further growth in large-displacement exports [4][8] - The export of large-displacement motorcycles is accelerating, with a CAGR of 67.6% from 2022 to 2024, as domestic brands enhance their international presence [4][8] Group 4: Key Players - The leading companies in the large-displacement motorcycle market include Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang, with Chunfeng expected to become the market leader in 2024 [5][9] - Chunfeng's motorcycle sales are projected to grow from 45,000 units in 2019 to 308,000 units in 2024, with a focus on large-displacement products [5][9] - Longxin's large-displacement motorcycle sales are expected to increase from 21,000 units in 2019 to 108,000 units in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 38.6% [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported lower-than-expected performance for 2024, while the Q1 2025 results met expectations, indicating a potential recovery trend in profitability [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 20.1% to 300 million yuan. The adjusted net profit was 250 million yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 1.90 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.5% and a year-on-year increase of 76.5% in net profit [2][4]. Business Segment Analysis - The company's core business remains stable, with strong growth in new business segments. In 2024, revenue from the sensor and air suspension businesses reached 670 million yuan and 990 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.4% and 41.8%. The growth in the sensor business is driven by product expansion and new customer acquisition, while the air suspension business benefits from the rapid production and sales of key models [3][4]. Margin and Expense Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 25.1%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower margins in new businesses. The gross margins for the sensor and air suspension businesses were 17.1% and 22.6%, respectively. The company maintained a stable expense ratio of 18.8% despite increased stock incentive costs, leading to a net profit margin of 4.3% for 2024 [4][7]. Q1 2025 Performance Recovery - In Q1 2025, the company saw a significant improvement in profitability metrics, with a gross margin of 23.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0 percentage points but an increase of 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin improved to 5.0%, indicating a recovery in performance [5][7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 9.1 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates. The projected revenue for 2027 is 13.5 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 30%, 22%, and 21% for the respective years. The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have also been lowered to 510 million yuan and 720 million yuan [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported lower-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 2.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.5% [2]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 2.64 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 41.8% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 21.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 37.3% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 17.8%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 2.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the annual decline in downstream customer demand and the ongoing ramp-up phase of the Mexican factory [4]. Customer Demand and Product Performance - Key customer demand saw significant growth, with production from core clients Chery and Geely increasing by 29% and 43% year-on-year, respectively. The sales of Geely's Galaxy 3.0 platform models exceeded 170,000 units, contributing significantly to the growth in line control braking [3]. - In terms of product performance, sales of intelligent electronic control products (EPB + line control braking) increased by 58% year-on-year, while disc brake sales rose by 36% and lightweight products by 23% [3]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company experienced a scale effect in its expense management, with the expense ratio for Q1 2025 at 7.40%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3 percentage points. The breakdown of expense ratios included sales expense ratio at 0.41%, management expense ratio at 2.55%, R&D expense ratio at 4.87%, and financial expense ratio at -0.45% [4]. Order Acquisition and International Expansion - The company successfully acquired 416 new projects in 2024, with specific increases in projects for disc brakes, lightweight products, and mechanical steering columns [5][6]. - The expansion of the Mexican production capacity is progressing smoothly, with the first phase of the project, which has an annual capacity of 4 million lightweight components, having commenced production by the end of Q3 2023. The company is actively advancing plans for an annual capacity of 7.2 million lightweight components and 2 million brake calipers in Mexico, with expectations for volume and profit growth by 2025 [7]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 12.92 billion, 15.50 billion, and 18.38 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 30%, 20%, and 19%, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 1.55 billion, 1.88 billion, and 2.29 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 21% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating short-term pressure on performance, primarily due to a decrease in sales from joint venture clients in the cleaning system business [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 203 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.04% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 21.44% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 42 million yuan, down 35.48% year-on-year and 16.71% quarter-on-quarter, resulting in a net profit margin of 20.61%, which is a decline of 6.21 percentage points year-on-year [2][3]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 32.22%, down 4.57 percentage points year-on-year, attributed mainly to price reductions for clients [3]. Competitive Advantages - The company possesses core competencies in technology research and development, cost control, customer coverage, product expansion, and capacity layout [4]. - In technology R&D, the company has leading advantages in product development, testing, mold design, and the integration of fully automated production lines [4]. - Cost control is enhanced through a platform strategy and vertical integration of the supply chain, along with intelligent automated production [4]. - The company has established deep partnerships with major automotive manufacturers such as BMW, Geely, and North American electric vehicle clients, as well as international Tier 1 suppliers [4]. - The micro-motor technology serves as a platform technology with strong extensibility, allowing the company to diversify its application scenarios and product range [4]. - Ongoing construction of factories in Thailand and the United States is expected to improve global customer support efficiency and expand overseas market share [4]. Future Financial Projections - The company maintains forecasts for net profit attributable to the parent company at 251 million yuan, 303 million yuan, and 366 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.14 yuan, 3.79 yuan, and 4.57 yuan [6]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.75x, 20.48x, and 16.97x respectively [6].

| 投资要点 | | --- | 公告要点： 公司公布2025年一季报，25Q1公司实现营收574.6亿元，同环比分别+1.9%/+6.9%，实现归母净 利 润 27.1 亿 元 ， 同 环 比 分 别 +4.3%/-9.7% ， 扣 非 后 归 母 净 利 润 24.8 亿 元 ， 同 环 比 分 别 +5.98%/-11.8%。 凯傲计提支出影响归母净利润4.72亿元： 根据一季报，25Q1凯傲增效计划计提支出14.65亿元，影响归母4.72亿元，加回后25Q1归母31.8 亿元，同环比分别+22.4%/+6.0%。根据凯傲公告，2025年全年增效计划预计计提2.4-2.6亿欧 元。 供应链降本持续释放利润，费用管控得当： 25Q1毛利率22.2%，同环比分别+0.5/-1.9pct，同比增长主因24Q2开始供应链降本效果持续体 现。25Q1公司销售/管理/研发费用率分别 5.6%/7.1%/3.55%，同比分别+0.3/+2.5/-0.2pct，环比 分别-0.6/+2.1/-0.35pct，其中25Q1管理费用40.9亿，同环比分别+56.6%/+50.4%，主因凯傲增效 计划支出影响。25Q1公司财 ...

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 板块最新观点 板块观点重申： 5月优先AI智能化+机器人！优选【小鹏汽车+地平线】！ 节前节后发生了哪些重要变化？ 中美贸易战或趋于缓和是最大的外在环境变化。美国允许对进 口汽车零部件、在美国组装汽车的汽车生产商进行一定程度的补偿，或是美国这轮持续加征关 税后的"松动表现"，有助于大幅缓解此前市场对汽车因为中美贸易战持续升级所带来的三层担 忧：1）贸易战升级对汽车外需的影响；2）贸易战升级引发间接的汽车内需价格战；3）小米 事故引发智驾强监管。而假期期间美股特斯拉/港股汽车表现均较为强势，港股地平线/小鹏汽 车等领涨。 当前时点汽车板块如何配置？： 我们依然坚持看好2025年【AI智能化/机器人+红利风格】两条主线并存选股思路，5月看好AI 智能化/机器人反弹空间或更大。【AI智能化/机器人】是乘用车-零部件大板块核心矛盾。乘用 车板块：港股优选【小鹏汽车-W/理想汽车-W/小米集团-W】等，A股优选【赛力斯/上汽集团/ 比亚迪】等；零部件板块：智能化增量部件优选【地平线机器人-W/黑芝麻智能/德赛西威/华阳 集团/伯特利】，机器人/电动化部件【拓普集团/瑞鹄模具/爱柯迪/博俊科 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue and net profit growth indicating a solid operational foundation and potential for future expansion in product categories [2][3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 802 million yuan, up 22.66% [2]. - For Q4 2024, the company recorded revenue of 1.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.30%, and a net profit of 179 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 56.03% [2][3]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 1.593 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.22%, with net profit reaching 209 million yuan, up 7.10% [2][3]. Operational Stability - The company's Q4 2024 gross margin was 22.48%, down 2.65 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 gross margin was 27.68%, showing a minor decline of 0.17 percentage points [3]. - The period expense ratio for Q4 2024 was 4.78%, a decrease of 7.67% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to reductions in management and financial expense ratios [3]. - The company recorded an asset impairment loss of 80 million yuan in Q4 2024, which slightly impacted quarterly performance [3]. Product Expansion and Growth Potential - The company has established itself as a global leader in sunshade products, holding over 40% market share in 2022, and is now expanding into headrest and ceiling products [4][5]. - The headrest business is expected to grow as the company increases its supply to major clients like Chrysler and Ford [4]. - The ceiling products, which share core manufacturing processes with sunshades, present significant market potential and are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth as new contracts are secured [5]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 927 million yuan and 1.091 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1.280 billion yuan [6]. - Corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected at 0.56 yuan, 0.66 yuan, and 0.77 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with price-to-earnings ratios of 14.26, 12.12, and 10.33 [6]. - The expansion into new product categories is expected to enhance growth prospects, leading to a maintained "buy" rating for the company's stock [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q1 2025 results, showing a year-on-year revenue growth of 15.05% and a net profit increase of 10.89%, indicating stable performance in a challenging market environment [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.416 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.05% but a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 2.31% [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 212 million yuan, up 10.89% year-on-year and 18.42% quarter-on-quarter, with a corresponding net profit margin of 6.22% [3]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 was 19.79%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.77 percentage points and a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.45 percentage points [3]. Industry Insights - The domestic heavy truck industry saw wholesale sales of 265,000 units in Q1 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% [3]. - The narrow definition of the domestic new energy passenger vehicle industry experienced wholesale sales of 2.8469 million units, down 34.13% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The overall narrow definition of passenger vehicles had wholesale sales of 6.2761 million units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.27% [3]. Strategic Advantages - The company focuses on enhancing its global R&D system, particularly in the field of new energy thermal management, leveraging its "1+4+N" product layout to capture market opportunities [4]. - The company adheres to an international development strategy, establishing production and technical service platforms in overseas markets to better serve global customers [4]. - The company's thermal management business for new energy vehicles includes partnerships with renowned electric vehicle manufacturers, benefiting from customer growth [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 1.07 billion yuan, 1.309 billion yuan, and 1.567 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.28 yuan, 1.57 yuan, and 1.88 yuan [6]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 19.84x, 16.21x, and 13.54x, respectively, with a "buy" rating maintained [6].

未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 投资要点 本周复盘总结： 四月第4周交强险44.2万辆，环比上周/上月周度+16.9%/-6.4%。 本周SW汽车指数+0.5%，细分 板块涨跌幅排序: SW汽车零部件(+2.3%) >SW摩托车及其他(+1.8%) >SＷ商用载货车(+1.2%) >SW汽车(+0.5%)>重卡指数(+0.2%) > SW乘用车(-2.6%)> SW商用载客车(-3.5%) 。本周已覆盖 标的零跑汽车、耐世特、明阳科技、理想汽车-W、中鼎股份涨幅较好。 本周团队研究成果： 外发比亚迪、长安汽车、广汽集团、宇通客车、均胜电子、江淮汽车、沪 光股份、金龙汽车、华阳集团、中国汽研、长华集团、拓普集团、赛力斯、上汽集团、北汽蓝 谷、瑞玛精密、经纬恒润、中鼎股份、华域汽车、中国重汽、爱柯迪、一汽解放、福田汽车 2025一季报点评，德赛西威简报。 本周行业核心变化： 1） 4月小鹏共交付新车35045台车，同比增长273%； 2） 上汽集团2025Q1公司实现营业总收 入1,408.6亿元，同环比分别-2%/-29%；归母净利润30.2亿元，同比+11%；扣非后归母净利润 28.5亿元，同比+34%； 3） ...